air travel development

ICAO forecasts complete and sustainable recovery and growth of air passenger demand in 2023   //

Montréal, 8 February 2023 – Using advanced big data analytics, ICAO forecasts that air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter and that growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by year end.

Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,” remarked ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano. 

• Air Transport

Photo credit: Charles Schlumberger

To assist clients in establishing a safe, functional, efficient, affordable, and reliable air transport network, the Bank is mandated to undertake the following activities:

• Operational work through projects and technical assistance.
• Economic sector work, research, and knowledge dissemination on air transport related issues.
• External relations and collaboration with partner organizations.
• Internal services (e.g., the airline advisory service for WBG staff).

These activities are detailed in a comprehensive annual report, which aims to outline the objectives, instruments, and outcomes of the WBG's development activities in the field of air transportation.

Link to archives: Into the Jet Age

In the early days, the World Bank financed equipment such as aircraft for state-owned airlines, and undertook standalone infrastructure projects. With the liberalization of the air transport sector worldwide, and the privatization of many state-owned airlines, the World Bank shifted its pure investment focus to incorporate capacity building, policy and regulatory support.

In Fiscal Year 2015 (FY15), WBG’s Air Transport Portfolio amounted to US$1.47 billion, an increase of 2% from Fiscal Year 2014 (FY14). The Air Transport segment makes up around 3% of the WBG’s US$45 billion Transport portfolio. The WBG’s FY15 Transport portfolio consists approximately 19% of the WBG’s active portfolio of US$248 billion (excluding MIGA). The Air Transport portfolio includes around 26 projects or project components through the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and International Development Association (IDA), as well as the International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s portfolio of lending and investment advisories in the aviation sector. 

Major ongoing projects include the Pacific Aviation Investment Program , which is helping to promote safe and efficient air travel in the Pacific Islands by improving aviation infrastructure, management, and operations. The World Bank continues to finance large airport projects, such as the Cairo Airport Development Project - TB2 . The IFC is engaged in the sector through the provision of loans, equity, and advisory services to stimulate private sector investment, for example, Zagreb International Airport, Croatia and Queen Alia International Airport, Jordan.

• The COVID-19 Pandemic and African Aviation : Policy Note
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Navigating the Future of Air Travel: Insights for 2024

In the ever-evolving realm of air travel, the coming year holds a multitude of developments and challenges. Join us as we navigate through the trends and issues that will define the aviation landscape in 2024.

The skies may present challenges, but they also offer opportunities and innovations that will shape the future of air travel. Here’s what we anticipate will shape our journeys through the skies next year.

1) Soaring Prices or Smooth Sailing? Unpacking 2024 Fare Predictions

In 2024, expect a continuation of the status quo in flight prices, with minor fluctuations. Off-peak seasons may offer some relief due to softened demand, but the underlying factors, such as increased salaries and fluctuating oil prices, suggest a stable rather than cost-saving experience.

Keep an eye on routes with additional capacity, particularly in the transatlantic sector, as legacy carriers, led by United Airlines, open new routes, potentially influencing fare dynamics.

2) Turbulence Ahead: Persistent Disruptions and Global Issues

The year ahead won't be without challenges. Lingering disruptions from the previous year and global issues may impact the aviation industry. The Pratt & Whitney engine problem is expected to peak, potentially grounding up to 300 aircrafts globally at any given time.

Carriers like Lufthansa, Indigo, Delta Air Lines, Wizzair, and Virgin Atlantic may experience disruptions from these delays. Some airlines, however, might find opportunities with these engine delays. With reduced capacity, they have an opportunity to exert higher fares.

Boeing’s recent backlog issues add another disruption for airlines that simply don’t know when their new aircraft will be arriving next year, making planning a bit difficult for some.

3) Business Travel 2.0: Short-Haul Sector Faces Uphill Climb

The return of business travel has started post-pandemic, but not all sectors will recover at the same pace. Short-haul business travel may continue to lag behind, as video calling and conferencing options prove to be more time and cost-effective for many professionals.

Then in Europe, regulators are impacting short hall travel with new regulations. With a goal of cutting carbon emissions, new regulations have been put in place that ban short distance travel via plane. For example, in France, the Government has banned flights from domestic airports within a four hour train journey of Paris.

4) AI Takes the Pilot's Seat: Innovations in the Industry

Technological advancements will continue to take center stage in 2024. While drones and VTOLs remain on the horizon, Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications are set to revolutionize the aviation landscape.

We can expect transformative changes with AI, from optimizing operations to enhancing passenger experiences, AI will continue to be a driving force behind industry advancements.

5) The Dogfight for Dominance: Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) vs. Legacy Giants

The struggle for market share and profitability continues in 2024 between Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) and legacy giants. Both entities will compete vigorously, with legacy carriers challenging the LCCs. However, LCC’s will need to persevere to secure their market share and revenue.

Consumers will always come back for a low fare –and that’s helping LCC’s maintain a competitive stance. There is a growing share of capacity behind flights operated by LCC’s. Some of the U.S.’s largest airports have seen a huge boost in flights operated by LCC’s in the past 3 years, and that’s expected to grow.

As we look ahead to 2024, stay tuned for more insights and analyses from OAG, You can subscribe to receive an alert when we publish a new article below.

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• The Future of Air Travel: Toward a better in-flight experience

A snapshot from Air Travel Design Guide, illustrating artifacts, spaces, and systems that impact the passenger experience in travel. Illustrations by Isa He

Anyone remember air travel? In early 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the globe and international flights were hurriedly cancelled, the Harvard Graduate School of Design’s Laboratory for Design Technologies (LDT) pivoted its three-year focus project, The Future of Air Travel , to respond to new industry conditions in a rapidly changing world. With the broad goal of better understanding how design technologies can improve the way we live, the project aims to reimagine air travel for the future, recapturing some of its early promise (and even glamour) by assessing and addressing various pressure points resulting from the pandemic as well as more long-term challenges.

The two participating research labs—the Responsive Environments and Artifacts Lab (REAL) , led by Allen Sayegh , associate professor in practice of architectural technology, and the Geometry Lab, led by Andrew Witt , associate professor in practice of architecture—“look at air travel from an experiential and a systemic perspective.” As part of their research, the labs consulted with representatives from Boeing, Clark Construction, Perkins & Will, gmp, and the Massachusetts Port Authority, all members of the GSD’s Industry Advisors Group .

So far, the project has resulted in two research books: An Atlas of Urban Air Mobility and On Flying: The Toolkit of Tactics that Guide Passenger Perception (and its accompanying website www.airtraveldesign.guide ).  On Flying , by Sayegh, REAL Research Associate Humbi Song , and Lecturer in Architecture Zach Seibold , seeks “to facilitate a rethinking of how to design objects, spaces, and systems by putting the human experience at the forefront”—and in so doing “prepare and design for improved passenger experiences in a post-COVID world.” The book’s accessible glossary covers topics including the design implications of the middle armrest (“What if armrests were shareable without physical contact?”); whether the check-in process could be improved by biometric scanners; the effect of customs declarations on passengers; how air travel is predicated on “an absence of discomfort” instead of maximizing comfort; and the metaphysical aspects of jet lag.

The project “examines and provides insight into the complex interplay of human experience, public and private systems, technological innovation, and the disruptive shock events that sometimes define the air-travel industry”. Consider, for instance, the security requirements of air travel in a post-COVID world—how can the flow of passengers through the departure/arrival process be streamlined while incorporating safety measures such social distancing?

On Flying acknowledges that it’s hard to quantify many of the designed elements—ranging from artifacts to spaces and systems—that affect our experience of air travel. So the toolkit methodically catalogs and identifies these various factors before speculating on alternative scenarios for design and passenger interaction. A year into the project, Phase 2 will more overtly examine the context of COVID-19, considering it alongside other catastrophic events, such as 9/11, in order to better understand and plan for their impact on the industry as a whole and on passenger behavior.

Meanwhile, An Atlas of Urban Air Mobility , by Witt and Lecturer in Architecture Hyojin Kwon , is “a collection of the dimensional and spatial parameters that establish relationships between aerial transport and the city,” and it aims to establish a “kit of parts” for the aerial city of the future. Phase 1 considered the idea of new super-conglomerates of cities, dependent on inter-connectivity of air routes—specifically looking at the unique qualities of Florida as an air travel hub. The atlas investigates flightpath planning and noise pollution and other spatial constraints of air travel within urban environments. One possible solution it raises is the concept of “clustered networks,” where electrical aerial vehicles could be used in an interconnected pattern of local urban conurbations, reflecting a hierarchy of passenger flight, depending on scale and distance traveled.

Phase 2 will move into software and atlas development, expanding the atlas as well as their simulation and planning software. One intriguing aspect will be a critical history of past visions of future air travel: a chance to look back in order to look forward with fresh eyes. By studying our shared dream of air travel, the hope is to rediscover and reboot abandoned visions that may yet prove to inspire new innovations.

It’s a reminder that, not so long ago, international flight excited and inspired us—before the realities of delayed flights, lost luggage, rude customs officials, and poorly planned infrastructure stole our dreams. And that’s before we ever stepped onto the plane itself. According to the Air Travel Design Guide , the social contract of air travel has now become so skewed from the original glamorous proposition that today, “the passenger can feel as if they are at the mercy of nature, airport security personnel, or the airline cabin crew. They are directed where to go, how to move, and even when to go to the bathroom on the plane.”

Surely it can—and should—be better than this?

“We may not arrive more on time,” the team concludes, “but thanks to the introduction of better design practice—we might enjoy the experience better.”

Learn more about the Laboratory for Design Technologies and its Industry Advisors Group (IAG) partners at research.gsd.harvard.edu/ldt/

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The Geography of Transport Systems

The spatial organization of transportation and mobility

Air Transportation Growth and Economic Growth, 1950-2020

Source: Air Transport Association and World Bank.

Between 1950 and 2020, air passenger and freight traffic grew systematically faster than gross world product (or GDP) as the unique ability of air transportation to collapse space and time drew more traffic . Correlation analysis reveals strong associations between air transport activity and GDP; with an R square of 0.96 for passengers-km and 0.98 for freight. Thus, each unit of economic growth is directly associated with a corresponding level of growth in passenger and cargo air transportation.

Air transportation endured a strong period of growth during the 1960s, with passenger and freight growth systematically in the 10%-20% range. Airports were being increasingly congested, and airline companies were looking for jet planes with higher capacities. The surge of passengers-km in 1970 (+31.1%) is mainly attributed to the introduction of the 747, a large capacity airplane that revolutionized air transportation by offering lower fares, high capacity, and a longer range of operation (thus more passengers-km). A setback for air transportation came in 1973 with the Arab oil embargo and the subsequent recession (1974-1975). The 1981-1984 recession, the Gulf War (1991), and the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) were also economic setbacks that impacted air transportation.

The events of September 11, 2001, linked with a recession had considerable impacts on air transportation which experienced a global loss of 35 million passengers between 2000 and 2001. This was the second time in history that passenger air transport experienced a year of negative growth. The third occurrence of negative growth took place in 2009 as the outcome of a major financial crisis and an issuing recession. The industry experienced a drop of 9 million passengers between 2008 and 2009.

The Covid-19 pandemic represents the fourth time the industry experienced a decline with a strong divergence between passengers and freight activity , which was not apparent in previous phases. While the number of passenger-km declined by 65.6% between 2019 and 2020 (a loss of 57 million passengers), the number of tons-km only declined by 0.1%.

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FAA Forecasts Continued Growth in Air Travel

March 21 – The FAA today released its annual Aerospace Forecast Report Fiscal Years 2017 to 2037 , which projects sustained and continued growth in nearly every aspect of air transportation from general aviation private flying to large commercial airline passenger levels. In commercial air travel, Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) are considered the benchmark for measuring aviation growth. An RPM represents one revenue passenger traveling one mile. The FAA forecast calls for system RPMs by mainline and regional air carriers to grow at an average rate of 2.4 percent per year between 2016 and 2037, with international RPMs projected for average annual increases of 3.4 percent per year. System RPMs are forecast to increase 65 percent during the 20-year forecast. 

A key new portion of the forecast focuses on the growth in the use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), also known as drones. The FAA projects the small model hobbyist UAS fleet to more than triple in size from an estimated 1.1 million vehicles at the end of 2016 to more than 3.5 million units by 2021. The commercial, non-hobbyist UAS fleet is forecast to grow from 42,000 at the end of 2016 to about 442,000 aircraft  by 2021, with an upside possibility of as many as 1.6 million UAS in use by 2021. Pilots of these UAS vehicles are expected to increase from 20,000 at the end of 2016 to a range of 10 to 20 times as many by 2021.

Predictions for small UAS are more difficult to develop given the dynamic, quickly-evolving market. The FAA has provided high and low ranges around the hobbyist forecast, reflecting uncertainty about the public’s continued adoption of this new technology. The FAA’s non-hobbyist (commercial) UAS fleet size forecasts contain certain broad assumptions about operating limitations for small UAS during the next five years based on the basic constraints of the existing regulations: daytime operations, within visual line of sight, and a single pilot operating only one small UAS at a time.  he main difference in the high and low end of the forecasts is differing assumptions about how quickly the regulatory environment will evolve, enabling more widespread routine uses of UAS for commercial purposes.

The FAA utilizes a variety of economic data and projections to develop its annual forecast, such as generally accepted projections for the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The FAA annual forecast is consistently considered the industry-wide standard of U.S. aviation-related activities. The report looks at all facets of air travel including commercial airlines, air cargo, private general aviation, and fleet sizes. Read the FAA Aviation Forecast Fact Sheet .

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• PLANET POSSIBLE

Greener air travel will depend on these emerging technologies

Electric engines, alternative fuels, and better navigation could reduce emissions—and mitigate the impacts of a global return to the skies.

The sky over Cologne, Germany, is crisscrossed by condensation trails from airplanes. Because the pollutants in these so-called “contrails” contribute to climate change, researchers are studying ways to eliminate them—one of several ongoing efforts to make flying more sustainable.

Here’s a word you may have overlooked in 2020: flygskam, a Swedish term for the feeling of being ashamed to fly. In a year that saw a 66 percent decrease in flights, compared to 2019, you might think that flygskam has flown the coop.

But with a recent uptick in air traffic—and the anticipation of travel’s rebound thanks to COVID-19 vaccines —flygskam is taking flight again. The term originated in 2017 as part of a campaign to change how we fly, from the frequency of our flights to the technology of our aircraft. The goal: to mitigate the carbon dioxide emissions that experts think may triple by 2050 .

Aviation accounts for a relatively small portion of global emissions—2.5 percent. While bigger culprits, such as electricity and agriculture, account for greater emissions, they also benefit billions of people. Airline emissions, in contrast, come mostly from rich travelers in the richest countries: business class passengers produce six times as much carbon as those in economy class, and one percent of the most frequent fliers are responsible for half of all aviation’s carbon emissions.

Will the pandemic -caused travel slowdown be enough to shake up aviation and produce lasting benefits for the environment? In 2020, the drop in air traffic likely reduced carbon emissions by several hundred million tons . Some are calling to make those reductions permanent by eliminating contrails, using new fuels, improving navigation, and more. With climate change reaching a point of no return as early as 2035 , action will need to happen quickly.

( Wondering what you can do? Here are 12 ways to travel sustainably in the new year .)

Of course, flying less would have an even bigger impact, and there are calls for travelers to fly only once a year , give up flying for a year , and attend conferences virtually . Still, air travel is here to stay, so the cleaner the better. Here are some of the ways flying could clean up its act in the years to come.

Curtailing the contrails

Aviation emits more than carbon dioxide; it also produces water vapor, aerosols, and nitrogen oxides. These pollutants absorb more incoming energy than what is radiated back to space, causing Earth’s atmosphere to warm. This means aviation’s impact on warming might be an even bigger share than its carbon footprint.

The turbine engines of commercial aircraft, like this one at a maintenance facility in Singapore, rely on kerosene-based propellants. Companies are experimenting with biofuels and synthetic fuels that can reduce carbon dioxide emmissions.

An Airbus A300-600R makes its final approach before landing. The company plans to have a hydrogen-fueled plane in service by 2035.

The worst of the non-carbon impacts are from contrails, short for condensation trails: the line-shaped clouds that form from a plane’s engine exhaust. A small number of flights are responsible for most contrails. This is because contrails form only in narrow atmospheric bands where the weather is cold and humid enough.

Avoiding those zones could make a big difference in limiting aviation’s non-carbon pollution. One research paper modeling Japan’s airspace found that modifying a small number of flight routes to skip these areas could reduce contrails’ effects on the climate by 59 percent. The change would be as little as 2,000 feet above or below these regions. While flying a plane higher or lower can reduce its efficiency and require more jet fuel, the paper found that limiting contrails would still offset any additional carbon emissions.

“There is a growing realization that the impact of contrails is a really significant component of aviation’s climate impact,” says Marc Stettler, one of the paper’s authors and a lecturer on transport and the environment at Imperial College London .

The spots where contrails can form change from day to day, so airlines need accurate, multi-day weather forecasts to avoid them. In the future, pilots could report contrails, much like they now do with turbulence, so other planes could adjust their flight paths.

The EU’s aviation authority, EUROCONTROL, starting preparing last year to conduct trials on a contrail avoidance project . Stettler and his colleagues plan to continue research on how to go about implementing changes that could reduce contrails.

“This is the faster way that aviation can reduce its climate impact,” he says.

Related: Stunning views from an airplane window

Harnessing alternative fuels

Commercial airplanes rely on kerosene-based propellant, but companies are experimenting with turning biomasses, such as vegetable oil and even used diapers , into jet fuels. Some research suggests these biofuels could cut carbon pollution from airplanes by upwards of 60 percent . But all biofuels are not created equal.

Those that could be processed into food are unsustainable because of the planet’s growing population, which needs crops for calories. Used cooking oil and pulp leftover from agriculture or logging are expensive and not produced at a scale large enough to make a meaningful difference. But this doesn’t mean that other sustainable aviation fuels won’t be developed.

( How clean is the air on planes? Cleaner than you may think .)

“You hear that aviation is a hard sector to decarbonize,” says Andrew Murphy, the aviation director at Transport and Environment , a European nongovernmental organization. “That is only half the story. The other half is we haven’t tried.”

More-promising areas include e-fuels, or “synthetic fuels,” which don’t require engines to be reengineered. To make e-fuels, electricity—hopefully renewable—is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is then combined with carbon dioxide to make jet fuel. KLM recently conducted its first flight powered by synthetic fuel.

Another effort entails pulling carbon out of the atmosphere and using it as an ingredient in fuel. Although this technology is still in early stages, that doesn’t mean it has to be far off.

“The pandemic has shown us new technology can be sped up if we want it to,” Murphy says.

Going electric or hybrid

Cars aren’t the only conveyance undergoing electric innovation: one count found a hundred electric-powered aircraft projects in the works.

The first electric flights will be in small planes with a range limited to a few hundred miles. Norway , a country with numerous islands and mountainous terrain calling for puddle jumpers, has promised that all of its short-haul flights will be on electric aircraft by 2040 . Underserved areas could one day get new routes flown exclusively by electric planes.

“A huge fleet of these could radically change local transportation systems,” says Ron Steenblik, former director of the International Institute for Sustainable Development ’s Global Subsidies Initiative.

An airplane descends as the sun rises on Mexico City. Artificial intelligence is being used in efforts to improve flight navigation and lessen delays that cause planes to sit on the tarmac or circle the airport.

Going farther or flying bigger planes with electrification isn’t on the near-term horizon. But some companies are exploring a hybrid of electricity and hydrogen, which could extend ranges. Boeing and others are also looking at hydrogen as a means of propulsion even without electrification. Airbus recently revealed three different hydrogen planes with plans to have one or something like it in service by 2035.

“We don’t want to just make it technically feasible,” says Glenn Llewellyn, vice president of Airbus’s Zero-Emission Aircraft project. “We want to make it economically viable.”

The Hindenburg disaster in 1937 ended the first hydrogen era. The aviation industry tried and dropped a hydrogen effort again in 2010 after finding it too expensive. But Llewellyn points out that hydrogen has been improved by other industries, such as automobile and space, proving its safety, innovating on its uses, and bringing down its costs.

“The ecosystem is evolving in a much different way than 10 years ago,” Llewellyn says. “We have a better starting point.”

Giving navigation an upgrade

Airlines have used computers to help optimize routing and planning for decades, but they’re now putting artificial intelligence (AI) to work in finding new ways to reduce jet fuel needs.

Air France, Norwegian, and Malaysia Airlines are already using technology called Sky Breathe that relies on big data and AI to analyze billions of records from flights in an effort to find ways to save fuel. The company behind Sky Breathe says it has saved its customers more than $150 million in 2019 and reduced CO2 emissions by 590,000 tons.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is midway through a multiyear upgrade called NextGen , which will be a series of interconnected systems to improve how air traffic control sees, navigates, and communicates. The FAA says the technology will make it possible to schedule tighter landings and takeoffs and decrease delays that leave planes sitting on the tarmac or circling the airport.

“AI is really good at looking at patterns,” says Ashish Kapoor, an AI researcher at Microsoft who works on aviation projects. “We have years of experience of flying planes, so we have a lot of data out there.”

There will be more data as planes get kitted out in sensors, which will produce additional insights into improvements. All that data means that the next stage of aviation could look different. Algorithms could develop new plane designs and come up with flight plans, taking into account speed, comfort, and emissions.

“We don’t have to evolve like aviation has done the last hundred years,” Kapoor says.

But for this to happen, more than technology has to evolve; countries will need to change legislation, and airlines will need to fund expensive research. It will take incentives to encourage the aviation industry to become sustainable. Janice Lao-Noche, an environmental scientist and development economist, says it’s going to take a lot of flygskam and maybe the pain of climate change disrupting more flights for all the innovations to take off.

“I don’t think it’s futile,” Lao-Noche says. “[But] this is going to be, no pun intended, a bumpy ride for the aviation industry.”

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• SUSTAINABLE TOURISM

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Twenty Years Later, How Does Post-9/11 Air Travel Compare to the Disruptions of COVID-19?

In December 2005, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics published a report on “ Airline Travel Since 9/11 .” It came four years after the devastating attack caused a tragic loss of life and a significant contraction in U.S. air travel. The 20-year anniversary of 9/11 coincides with another devastating event, the COVID-19 pandemic, that is also affecting air travel. How do the effects of these two events on air travel compare?

Comparing Air Travel between 9/11 and COVID-19

NOTE : Passenger enplanements above are for domestic and international flights by U.S. carriers. SOURCE : BTS Seasonally Adjusted Data,  https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/j32x-7fku . 

As the charts above show, the immediate impact of both events was a severe drop in the number of passengers traveling by air with one key difference. The drop in monthly passengers in September 2001 from the previous month is significantly less steep (33%) than the drop in 2020 (96%). Both charts are for the same number of months before and after the onset of the disruption.

Recovery times necessarily vary.

All air service in the United States was suspended on 9/11, but the aviation system was restored within days. Passenger travel by commercial airlines did not recover until March 2004 when the number of passengers enplaned returned to the August 2001 level. 

Air Travel Recovery from 9/11

NOTE : Passenger enplanements above are for domestic and international flights by U.S. carriers. SOURCE : BTS Seasonally Adjusted Data,  https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/j32x-7fku .

In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted aviation service over many months through a patchwork of travel restrictions among states and foreign destinations. By June 2021 (15 months after the initial lock-downs in March 2020), air travel had recovered to the point that the largest U.S. airlines carried 82% of the passengers (66.4M) carried in June 2019 (81.4M).

A Slow Return Toward Pre-COVID-19 Air Travel Activity

NOTE : Flight departures above are for domestic and international flights by U.S. carriers. SOURCE : BTS,  https://www.bts.gov/twit

As the chart above shows, the number of departing flights each week since May 2020 (2020 in blue and 2021 in green) has been inching toward the number of flights in the corresponding week in 2019 (orange). 

When passengers return, will airlines add capacity, or will flights have fewer empty seats?

In the 2005 report , BTS noted that the number of passengers had increased since 9/11 at a faster rate than the number of available seats. Flights had fewer empty seats as what the industry calls “Load Factor” increased. The chart below shows that the change observed in 2005 did not abate until the onset of COVID-19.

Fewer Empty Seats After 9/11 Until COVID-19

In the months before 9/11, passenger aircraft were flying at around 73% of capacity. By February 2020, load factor for U.S. carrier domestic and international flights had increased to about 85%.

Airline employment has changed between crises.

In 2005, when BTS published the post-9/11 report, airlines were still operating with 28% fewer employees than in July 2001. This was despite the fact that the number of flights and passengers had returned to pre-9/11 levels, indicating what we described in the 2005 report as the industry cutting costs. Airline employment continued to remain below pre-9/11 levels even as the number of flights and passengers hit all-time highs in the months before the pandemic.

When Air Passengers Returned, Post-9/11, Airline Jobs Didn't

SOURCE : BTS analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data,  https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/28xr-p3t9 .

In August 2021, just 16 months after the April 2020 COVID-19 low point in flights and passengers, air transportation employment was already at 86% of pre-pandemic levels although the number of flights and passengers has still not caught up to pre-pandemic levels.

What does air travel look like in September 2021?

While we hear anecdotes of crowded flights and a U.S. shortage of labor, the data does not yet make it clear how much and for how long air travel has been affected by either. In May 2021, average load factor –although higher than at its pandemic low point— remained significantly lower than the pre-pandemic norm. And, June 2021 passenger airline employment is significantly closer to the pre-pandemic level than July 2005 employment was to its pre-9/11 level. How COVID variants affect the availability of aviation employees, how months of telework affect business travel by air, and how other aspects of air travel are affected by the pandemic remain to be seen.

50 ways air travel has changed over the last 100 years

When's the last time you got on a plane? If your last flight was before the pandemic, you're not alone. Industry statistics show worldwide air travel is down by more than 85% from 2019, according to the Associated Press in August 2020. Fears about catching COVID-19 in a crowded airport combined with regional lockdowns, border closures, and stay-at-home orders made many people think twice before hopping on a flight in 2020. Those who did travel by air during the pandemic were met with a significantly different experience. Airlines implemented mask requirements, swapped in-flight meals for prepackaged snacks, halted certain routes, and even blocked off middle seats to try to create a socially distanced experience at 35,000 feet.

The recent changes, while radical, are just the latest in a series of adjustments air travel has gone through since the first scheduled commercial flight in the U.S. took place in Florida in 1914. Early air travel was incredibly bumpy, somewhat dangerous, and had very few frills. But once Americans started jetting around the country in greater numbers, airlines upped the ante to compete for their business. Passengers would dress up for the occasion to enjoy bottomless cocktails, live entertainment, multicourse meals complete with fine china and white tablecloths, and other pleasures in the sky during the Golden Age of flying.

Since then, though, it's been a mostly downhill experience for air passengers. To squeeze every last dollar of profit from every flight, airlines have shrunk seat pitches, charged all sorts of new fees, and stopped offering free meals on many flights. The 9/11 terrorist attacks also prompted sweeping new security measures, requiring passengers to remove shoes, limit their liquids, and walk through full-body scanners before getting on a flight. Today's air travel feels like a world away from the glamour of yesteryear.

So how did air travel get to this point? To find out, Stacker looked at various news articles and websites to compile this timeline of some of the most significant changes in air travel over the last century, ranging from in-flight meals and entertainment to diversity in pilots, changes in fare categories, and frequent flier programs.

Keep reading to see how air travel has changed over the last 100 years.

1920s: Planes become available for passengers

The 1920s marked the first decade in which aircraft were designed with passengers in mind , Insider reports. However, the experience was far from glamorous. Flying was still slower than train travel, and the planes were loud, cold, and bumpy.

1921: Aeromarine Airways screens first in-flight film

Aeromarine Airways played the short film "Howdy Chicago" on a flight over the Windy City in 1921. It was the first in-flight film in history.

1927: Pan American Airways takes flight

Pan American Airways (also known as Pan Am) formed in 1927. Originally providing airmail service, the airline would eventually become the largest international air carrier in the world, and well-known among travelers.

1928: First in-flight hot meal served

Lufthansa offered the first hot-meal service aboard a plane in 1928, on a flight between Berlin and Paris. Airline workers used insulated bottles to keep the food warm, per Food Network.

1930: Air travel reserved for the wealthy

Air travel was largely reserved for the rich and famous in the late 1920s, with just 6,000 Americans flying commercially in 1930, according to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum. However, it would quickly become more popular, and four years later, 75 times the number of passengers would travel by air, USA Today reports.

1936: United Airlines pioneers first airplane kitchen

United Airlines launched the airline industry's first airplane kitchen in 1936. The company gave passengers a choice between scrambled eggs and fried chicken, according to Food Network.

1939: First-ever airport lounge opens in LaGuardia Airport

New York's LaGuardia Airport became home to the first-ever airport lounge when the American Airlines Admirals Club opened in 1939. It was used exclusively for VIPs and extremely loyal passengers.

1940: Boeing flies passengers in pressurized planes

Boeing's 307 Stratoliner, the first plane with a pressurized cabin for passengers, hit the skies in 1940, reported Air & Space magazine. It kept passengers significantly more comfortable at 20,000 feet than earlier planes.

1941: In-flight entertainment goes live

Live in-flight entertainment became a new offering on airlines in 1941. Some would hire actors and singers to perform aboard the flights, per Imagik Corp.

1942: Casual air travel stops during World War II

The U.S. founded the Air Transport Command in 1942 to coordinate airlines' role in transporting cargo and personnel during World War II. The military took the use of 200 of the 360 total airlines in the country, along with their staff. As a result, casual air travel was nearly nonexistent in the U.S. during the war, according to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum.

1946: Pan American Airways offers frozen dinners

Advancements in flash-freezing technology allowed Pan American Airways to offer the first modern-style frozen dinners on airplanes in 1946. Flight attendants would warm up the meals in convection ovens before serving them to passengers, according to Food Network.

1948: Activists fight segregation at airports

Efforts to end racial segregation at airports began to take motion in 1948 when a Michigan politician supported a Congressional bill to integrate Washington National Airport. While the bill ultimately failed, the airport's restaurant was desegregated later that year.

1948: Passengers get first coach fares

Capital Airlines created the first coach fares for flights in 1948. The lower-cost tickets would help a much broader group of passengers experience air travel, according to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum.

1949: Passengers get first low-cost airline

Pacific Southwest Airlines launched in May 1949 as the world's first low-cost airline. The airline began by transporting passengers around California. It would become the inspiration for Southwest Airlines.

1950s: Airlines phase out sleeper service

Planes became faster and saw a rise in traffic throughout the 1950s. As a result, airlines spent the decade phasing out their plush sleeper service , per the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum. The service had typically provided berth-style beds , like the ones found on trains, for transatlantic flights, says Air & Space magazine.

1952: More efficient, reliable planes increase tourism across the Atlantic

The Douglas DC-6B, a piston-engine airliner, offered a more efficient, reliable form of air travel. United Airlines was the first to bring them into commercial service in 1952, and Pan Am would use the aircraft to help boost tourism across the Atlantic Ocean, says the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum.

1953: Passengers get nonstop transcontinental service

American Airlines began using the DC-7 to fly from New York to Los Angeles in November 1953. It marked the first nonstop service between the east and west coasts of the U.S.

1958: Chicago O'Hare Airport tests modern jet bridge

Chicago O'Hare Airport began using the first modern jet bridge, or jetway , in 1958. It offered a sheltered path for passengers to travel between the terminal and the plane and ultimately sped up boarding times, according to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum.

1958: Pan Am offers in-flight fine dining

Pan Am took in-flight dining to the next level on its daily commercial route from the Big Apple to Europe in 1958. On those flights, the airline treated guests to a fine-dining experience , complete with fine china, white tablecloths, silver carafes, and extravagant dishes, reports Food Network.

1960: American Airlines develops booking automation system

American Airlines founded the Sabre Corporation in 1960. The business would develop a booking automation system for the airline, doing away with the tedious and time-consuming process of making manual reservations for customers.

1961: In-flight entertainment monitors advance

In-flight films started to become more regular on flights in 1961 when new in-flight entertainment monitors advanced to meet airline standards, per Imagik Corp. The noise of the plane engines made it difficult for passengers to hear film dialogue, though.

1965: U.S. completes network of overlapping radars

The U.S. finished developing a network of overlapping radars for planes in 1965. It would advance air traffic control and make flights safer.

1965: Marlon D. Green breaks color barrier on major airlines

After winning a Supreme Court battle against Continental Airlines, Marlon D. Green became a pilot in 1965. The African American pilot is credited with breaking the color barrier for crew on major airlines.

1973-74: Airlines react to oil crisis

The 1973 oil crisis caused the price of oil to skyrocket. Airlines responded in several ways to cut costs. Some switched to larger, more crowded planes and scrapped flights on unpopular routes. Some also cut the weight of their planes by reducing the number of in-flight magazines and ending paint jobs for their aircraft, The New York Times reported.

1975: Airlines offer in-flight gaming

Braniff Airlines added technology to its planes to allow passengers to play Pong while flying in 1975. It was the first time in-flight entertainment systems included video games , says Imagik Corp.

1976: Concorde ushers in supersonic era

The Concorde, a supersonic passenger airliner that could fly at double the speed of sound, entered commercial service in 1976. Tickets for flights on the legendary plane were extraordinarily expensive and would allow passengers to travel long distances in significantly less time.

1976: Emily Howell Warner becomes first female captain on a major airline

Frontier promoted Emily Howell Warner to the role of captain in 1976, making her the first woman to hold that position on a major U.S. airline. She had been required to jump through multiple hoops , including extra testing, that her male counterparts didn't have to endure, according to Plane & Pilot magazine.

1978: Federal government deregulates the airline industry

President Jimmy Carter put his signature on the Airline Deregulation Act in 1978. The act would drive up competition between airlines and help reduce fares, says the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum.

1979: Airlines award passenger loyalty

Texas International Airlines developed the first frequent-flyer program based on miles flown in 1979, says The Points Guy. It's credited with launching the first modern program to award air passengers for loyalty.

1984: FAA approves pre-flight safety demonstration videos

The Federal Aviation Administration gave its approval for airlines to use video for pre-flight safety demonstrations in 1984. They would eventually replace live demonstrations on many flights.

1986: Airlines partner with credit card companies

The airline industry introduced its first branded credit cards in 1986, with the Continental TravelBank Gold Mastercard, says The Points Guy. These early credit cards would increase the ways in which frequent fliers could earn rewards for their loyalty to airlines.

1987: American Airlines cuts olives and saves big

American Airlines decided to remove one olive from the salad plates service to first-class passengers in 1987. The move would save the airline a whopping $40,000 per year and has now become a famous tale of cost-cutting in aviation.

1988: Airplanes get back-of-seat screens

Airplanes began installing individual screens on the back of passenger seats in 1988. It would quickly become a standard on flights, regardless of what class the passenger was sitting in, according to Imagik Corp.

1988: Air travel goes smoke-free

Nearly 80% of flights in the U.S. banned passengers from smoking in 1988. The ban applied to nearly all flights with durations of 2 hours or less, The New York Times reported.

1989: United slaps expiration date on frequent flyer miles

United Airlines slapped expiration dates on miles earned through its frequent flyer program in 1989. The move aimed to create a sense of urgency for customers to use the miles. Expiration dates are now standard in many frequent flier programs, per The Points Guy.

1994: Southwest offers first e-ticket

Southwest Airlines became the first major airline to offer electronic tickets, or e-tickets, in 1994. It would help eliminate the problem of replacing lost paper tickets.

1996: Travelocity offers online flight reservations

Travelocity went online in 1996. The online travel agency was the first to allow passengers to make flight reservations through its website.

1997: Five airlines form the Star Alliance

Five airlines from around the world—United Airlines, Thai Airways International, Air Canada, Scandinavian Airlines, and Lufthansa–teamed up to form the Star Alliance in 1997. The first alliance of its kind, the group would offer consistent code-sharing to give passengers flexibility for earning and redeeming miles within its member airlines.

2000s: High-profile airline mergers change industry landscape

The 2000s would bring about a series of high-profile airline mergers and acquisitions, starting with American Airlines buying Trans World Airlines in 2001. The consolidations would eventually establish American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines as the dominant carriers in the U.S.

2001: Government increases air travel security after 9/11

Congress approved the creation of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) in 2001, around two months after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The agency rapidly ramped up staffing and deployed tens of thousands of agents to airports to screen passengers and their luggage, says PBS.

2003: Commercial airlines retire the Concorde

Air France and British Airways both stopped flying the Concorde in 2003. The costs of maintaining the supersonic passenger jet had become too high, and passengers felt the price of the ticket was not worth saving a few hours to cross the Atlantic Ocean, per Popular Mechanics.

2006: Air passengers must limit the liquids they pack

A plot to place liquid explosives onto a series of North America-bound flights from the U.K. was uncovered in 2006. As a result, passengers were faced with new security mandates that severely restricted the quantity of liquids they could bring in their carry-on luggage.

2008: TSA deploys full-body scanners at airports

The Transportation Security Administration began setting up advanced imaging technology , or full-body scanners, at airports across the U.S. in 2008. By 2014, nearly 160 airports across the country were using the technology to screen passengers.

2008: American Airlines starts charging for all checked bags

Throughout most air travel history, passengers could expect to have at least one checked bag included in their fare. That changed in 2008, when American Airlines became the first major carrier to charge a fee for every checked bag. Other airlines would quickly follow suit.

2011: TSA PreCheck becomes available

The Transportation Security Administration introduced a new Trusted Traveler program called TSA PreCheck in October 2011. After paying a fee and getting approved, participants could get expedited service through airport security.

2012: Government requires airlines to list the total cost of flights

In early 2012, the U.S. Transportation Department implemented a new rule that required airlines to provide transparent pricing information for tickets, including all taxes, fees, and surcharges. Before that, airlines could advertise the base fare, only to surprise customers with a significantly higher price once they were about to pay.

2012: Delta develops basic economy fares

Delta Air Lines introduced a new, lower-cost fare category known as basic economy in 2012. Now an industry standard, these bare-bones fares are typically nonrefundable, have no advance seat assignments, include little to no baggage, and have other restrictions.

2018: Flights get more packed

Air travel saw a huge surge in passengers throughout the 2010s. As a result, planes became increasingly crowded. A 2018 report from The Telegraph found that most planes were flying at about 80% occupancy that year, up from about 70% in 2000.

2020: Airlines struggle during the pandemic

Stay-at-home orders and fears of COVID-19 brought air travel to a near halt in 2020. The International Air Transport Association predicted in November 2020 that the global airline industry would suffer $160 billion in losses as a result of the pandemic. The few travelers who did continue to travel by air in 2020 were met with a series of new rules and changes on planes, including mandates to wear masks and socially distance on some airlines.

2021: Airlines consider vaccine passports

In an effort to jumpstart travel after a major slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines are considering requiring that all passengers get vaccinated against the disease. Alan Joyce, CEO of the Australian airline Qantas, has already announced support for a COVID-19 vaccine passport , and other airlines are considering trying out the system in early 2021.

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Boeing's revolutionary 787 Dreamliner has changed air travel forever. Here's how the company left competitors in the dust with a risky $8 billion bet.

• First flown in 2009, the Boeing 787 was the first next-generation plane produced by a major aircraft manufacturer.
• The jet was produced following the success of the Boeing 777, but it has faced setbacks over the years.
• Quality concerns halted deliveries of the jet in 2020, but the FAA recently gave Boeing the green light to resume.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner brought aviation into a new next-generation era when it took its first flight on December 15, 2009, and represented the future for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Source: Boeing

After years of building widebody aircraft with four engines, it wasn't until the 1990s that Boeing shifted to twin-engine dual-aisle aircraft.

Following the success of the 777, Boeing's best-selling wide-body planes, Boeing decided to continue the trend with a focus on efficiency and launched a new program in 2003 dubbed the "7E7."

The "E" would be the focal point for the aircraft, representing that the jet would lead in such factors as efficiency, economics, and environmental standards.

Instead of trying to level up the 777, Boeing looked back to see which seat market could be improved. It decided upon the 200-to-250-seat market that was served by the Boeing 767. The 7E7 wouldn't be Boeing's largest or fastest plane, but it didn't need to be.

The new aircraft would be called the Dreamliner following a worldwide vote and given the designation of the 787 as it followed the 777. Other potential names for the aircraft included the Global Cruiser, eLiner, and Stratoclimber.

Boeing began the $8 billion development of the aircraft in 2004 when Japan's All Nippon Airways placed a $6 billion order for 50 of the type, making Boeing history with the largest order for a new passenger jet aircraft.

Source: Boeing and New York Times

Before production on the first model began, Boeing was already touting its capabilities including ranges of up to 8,500 nautical miles, 20 percent less fuel consumption compared to similar aircraft and a slew of passenger-friendly amenities.

Airlines would have a choice with the Dreamliner on what would be powering the aircraft with Boeing installing a standard engine interface to accommodate two models, the General Electric GEnx…

...and the Rolls Royce Trent 1000, the engine which would later cause trouble for the aircraft.

Driving its efficiency would be its one-piece carbon fiber fuselage, a lightweight alternative to aluminum that reduced the need for rivets and panels to assemble the aircraft.

Source: New York Times

Analysts were watching its development closely as an aircraft of this caliber had never been attempted before and it was a big bet for Boeing that would determine its position in commercial aviation for years to come.

Though initial sales were record-breaking, Boeing would ultimately have to live up to its promises of increased efficiency and better economics on a new type of plane it had never built before.

Boeing would produce three variants, the smaller -8, the mid-size -9, and the larger -10.

Production would be a global affair, with companies in countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, France, and Italy taking part in developing various aspects of the aircraft.

When the first -8 variant was first unveiled in 2007, the aircraft was unlike anything flying at the time and looked nothing like any other products that came from Boeing's facilities.

Everything about the aircraft's appearance was distinct including the cockpit windows…

...chevron on the back of the engines to reduce noise…

...and the wings.

The smaller -8 can seat up to 248 passengers in a two-class configuration and fly up to 7,305 nautical miles, almost the distance between New York and Bangkok.

On the inside, the Dreamliner promises a spacious cabin with lower cabin altitude pressure allowing higher onboard humidity levels...

...as well as larger windows with dimmers instead of shades...

...and an ultra-modern cockpit with high-definition displays.

By the time it debuted, the unique aircraft already had over $100 billion in orders for 677 models.

The new plane was all set to be delivered to All Nippon Airways in 2008 until Boeing ran into production problems. Issues with the aircraft's suppliers and primary engine manufacturer Rolls Royce had pushed back test flights and the first flight of the aircraft was pushed back until late 2009.

The aircraft finally flew for the first time on December 15, 2009, marking the start of the next-generation revolution in aviation and immediately rendering iconic aircraft like the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380 obsolete.

After a year and a half of test flights, the first Dreamliner was delivered to All Nippon Airways on September 26, 2011, nearly ten years following its order.

All Nippon Airways would be one of the Dreamliner's biggest fans, using all three variants to round out its fleet and shunning Airbus' rival offering, the A350 XWB.

After All Nippon took delivery of the first seven Dreamliners, deliveries to other customers began, including Japan Airlines...

Source: Planespotters.net

...Ethiopian Airlines…

...United Airlines…

...LOT Polish Airlines…

...Qatar Airways…

...British Airways…

...and Aeromexico.

Not long after the first delivery of the -8, Boeing debuted another newborn — the 787-9. The younger sibling first flew on September 17, 2013.

As the middle child of the family, the -9 was 20 feet longer than the -8, seating up to 296 passengers in a two-class configuration. It can also fly 250 nautical miles further than its older sibling.

This time, Air New Zealand took delivery of the first aircraft, which would become its flagship. The plane went on to fly some of Air New Zealand's longest routes, including between Auckland and Houston…

…and will fly what will be the fourth-longest route in the world between Auckland and New York starting in September.

Air New Zealand will operate the 4th longest flight in the world when it launches the first-ever nonstop route between the US East Coast and the South Pacific nation

Long, thin routes, such as the ones Air New Zealand would be using the plane, were precisely the type that Boeing promised it could fly. The Dreamliner allowed airlines to open up routes to previously unviable markets.

British Airways used the aircraft for a similar purpose, opening up routes from London to smaller markets in the US including Charleston, South Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; New Orleans, and Pittsburgh.

Many of the operators of the -8 jumped onboard the -9 with orders from airlines such as All Nippon Airways…

...United Airlines,…

...and Japan Airlines.

But, the -9 saw many first-time customers purchasing the aircraft besides Air New Zealand, favoring the greater capacity and range, including Virgin Atlantic Airways…

...Etihad Airways…

...Air Canada…

...Vietnam Airlines…

...KLM Royal Dutch Airlines…

...Qantas...

...and LATAM Airlines.

The efficiency offered by the aircraft quickly allowed it to dominate the list of the world's longest flights and create new ones, including San Francisco to Singapore operated by a United Airlines Boeing 787-9, which is a 7,339-nautical mile route…

Source: Forbes

...and Perth to London operated by a Qantas 787-9 Dreamliner, a 7,829-nautical mile route that became the first nonstop link between Australia and the United Kingdom.

Qantas even used the aircraft to test nonstop flights from London and New York to Sydney, known as Project Sunshine.

Qantas will launch the world's longest flights, flying nonstop to New York and London from Sydney in 2025 — see what the 20-hour flights will look like

The longest-ever nonstop Boeing 787 flight was operated by Comlux in March 2021, flying 12,106 miles from Seoul, South Korea, to Buenos Aires, Argentina. The ultra-long-haul flight lasted 20 hours and 19 minutes.

Source: Aviacionline

While the Dreamliner is revolutionary in its efficiency and performance, the aircraft also sparked a low-cost revolution, with multiple budget long-haul carriers adopting the aircraft as a way to bring down operating costs.

Norwegian Air Shuttle's low-cost long-haul spinoff, aptly named Norwegian Long-Haul, used the aircraft to fly transatlantic routes between Europe and North America with advertised fares as low as $99 for a base ticket.

However, COVID-19, combined with other factors like increased competition, forced Norwegian to stop long-haul flying in 2021. The carrier said it will not resume the service post-pandemic.

Nevertheless, other budget carriers, including Singapore-based Scoot and Australia-based Jetstar, continue to fly the Dreamliner long-haul.

European low-cost startup Norse Atlantic Airlines also flies the Dreamliner, which it calls "Longships," across the Atlantic. The carrier started operations in June 2022 and hopes to fill the market gap left behind by Norwegian.

What passengers can expect when booking Europe's newest low-cost airline that will begin service to the US this summer

The final and largest Dreamliner variant, the 787-10, took the skies on March 31, 2017, eight years after the first variant did so in 2009.

The 787-10 is 18 feet longer than the -9 and 38 feet longer than the -8, and is able to seat 336 passengers in a two-class configuration.

However, the shorter-ranged aircraft is only able to fly as far as 6,330 nautical miles, which is about 975 nautical miles fewer than the -8, and 1,235 nautical miles shorter than the -9.

The first 787-10 was delivered to Singapore Airlines on March 25, 2018, and the full Dreamliner family was operating passenger flights all over the world soon after.

United Airlines became the first and only US operator of all three variants in 2018, with the airline being an early adopter of the 787-8 and subsequently taking delivery of each additional variant as they became available.

Despite its success, the 787 was not without its issues as the -8 fleet was grounded in 2013 following a series of malfunctions with the aircraft's battery.

The grounding only lasted four months, but permanently scarred the 787's entry into service after images like this one of an ANA 787 making an emergency landing circulated.

Source: FlightGlobal

Once that issue was resolved, another arose in the aircraft's Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines, where parts of the engine were cracking.

Source: CNBC

The issue, which is ongoing, has cost Rolls Royce over $1 billion and grounded 787 fleets equipped with the manufacturer's engines, crippling numerous airlines and forcing them to spend millions on leased aircraft.

As of 2022, most of the Trent 1000 issues have been resolved, though Rolls-Royce said there is one modification that will be completed next year.

Source: Reuters

While Boeing hoped that would be the end of its 787 problems, another came up in 2019 when engineers voluntarily grounded eight planes due to paper-width gaps in the fuselage.

Source: Wall Street Journal

"Individually, these issues, while not up to specifications, still meet limit load conditions," Boeing said at the time. "When combined in the same location, however, they result in a condition that does not meet limit load requirements."

Shortly after, the Federal Aviation Administration launched its own investigation of the Dreamliner. In October 2020, future deliveries of the jet were paused, though Boeing was still able to deliver 14 jets by May 2021.

Source: Aviation International News

However, the FAA re-halted deliveries the same month over inspection method concerns, and Boeing was left with 120 jets, worth a collective $25 billion, sitting stagnant.

Source: WSJ

After 15 months of waiting, the FAA gave Boeing the green light to resume deliveries, with the first 787 going to American Airlines on Wednesday.

Source: American Airlines

The agency still says it will inspect all Dreamliner airworthiness ahead of future deliveries. According to the Wall Street Journal, American's plane was approved on Monday.

Source: Reuters , Wall Street Journal

FAA acting Administrator Billy Nolen met with inspectors at Boeing's South Carolina Delivery Center on August 4 ahead of the plane's final approval.

His visit was "to ensure that the FAA is satisfied that Boeing has taken the appropriate steps to improve manufacturing quality and to guarantee the autonomy of workers who ensure regulatory compliance on the company's assembly lines."

Despite its issues and initial unprofitability, the Dreamliner has grown to be one of Boeing's best-sellers with nearly 1,500 orders.

Once word of the Dreamliner and its next-generation capabilities was announced, rival manufacturer Airbus also jumped into the market and began developing the A350 XWB and the Airbus A330neo, the 787's main competitors.

Airbus recently delivered the 350th A350 plane, its answer to Boeing's revolutionary 787 Dreamliner. Here's how the new aircraft is reshaping air travel.

The Dreamliner was first in the market, however, and its legacy can be seen at every major airport with airlines all over the world on every populated continent adopting the type.

• Main content

Decarbonizing aviation: Executing on net-zero goals

Though the aviation industry has committed to achieving net-zero flying by 2050, 1 For example, the International Air Transport Association, International Civil Aviation Organization, and Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation all aim for net-zero aviation by 2050. its path to reaching that goal is complex. 2 Axel Esqué, Adam Mitchell, Kritika Rastogi, and Robin Riedel, “ Decarbonizing the aviation sector: Making net zero aviation possible ,” McKinsey July 15, 2022; Future Air Mobility , “ Critical insights on the path to a net-zero aviation sector ,” McKinsey, October 14, 2021. The industry has aligned on most of the important actions needed to decarbonize—namely, fleet renewal, disruptive propulsion technologies, operational efficiency, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) usage, and carbon offsetting. 3 The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) acknowledges beyond-value chain decarbonization, such as carbon offsetting, as an important aspect of emission reductions but does not include it within the science-based targets. From 2005 to 2019, the aviation industry improved fuel efficiency by approximately 39 percent, 4 Future Air Mobility , “ Fuel efficiency: Why airlines need to switch to more ambitious measures ,” blog entry by Axel Esqué, Guenter Fuchs, and Robin Riedel, McKinsey, March 1, 2022. but absolute growth of emissions is larger than efficiency gains by far. Going forward, achieving decarbonization in a cost-effective way requires transparency and adaptability across a wide range of carbon mitigation measures as well as a clear focus on short-term versus long-term initiatives.

About the authors

Many companies across the aviation value chain have set goals to be completed over the long term, but there are actions they can take today to move closer to accomplishing these objectives. To get started, companies should understand which actions to prioritize for the greatest impact and for a cost-optimal path to net-zero emissions.

The current state of aviation decarbonization

Prepandemic CO 2 emissions from aviation contributed to roughly 2.5 percent of global total emissions, 5 Future Air Mobility , “ Fuel efficiency: Why airlines need to switch to more ambitious measures ,” blog entry by Axel Esqué, Guenter Fuchs, and Robin Riedel, McKinsey, March 1, 2022. but the global-warming potential could be significantly greater (see sidebar “Aviation and non-CO 2 emissions”). The sector is hard to abate because of unique requirements, including weight and size constraints, long innovation cycles, prioritization of safe operations, and because key technologies, such as SAFs, are relatively costly and have not been adopted at scale. 6 Axel Esqué, Adam Mitchell, Kritika Rastogi, and Robin Riedel, “ Decarbonizing the aviation sector: Making net zero aviation possible ,” McKinsey July 15, 2022.

Aviation and non-CO 2 emissions

In addition to the CO 2 emissions produced from burning fuel, aviation affects the climate through emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), soot, and water vapor, which, among other effects, create contrails and cirrus clouds that cause radiation and affect the climate. The CO 2 emitted from kerosene burned in flight can stay in the upper atmosphere for 50 to 100 years, and NO x remain for several weeks, affecting the ozone layer. 1 Hydrogen-powered aviation: A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050 , a joint report from the Clean Sky 2 and Fuel Cells and Hydrogen 2 Joint Undertakings, May 2020. As such, the total aviation effects may be approximately two to four times higher than the pure CO 2 effects would indicate. 2 Target true zero unlocking sustainable battery and hydrogen-powered flight , World Economic Forum (WEF), July 2022; M. R. Allen et al., “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018,” Atmospheric Environment , January 2021, Volume 244.

The science on non-CO 2 effects is nascent, so most airlines (and the latest Science Based Target initiative guidance) refer only to pure CO 2 emissions.

Many stakeholders in the aviation value chain have committed to various sustainability goals, including emission-reduction targets, 7 “Environmental sustainability goals,” Southwest, accessed May 25, 2023. SAF targets, 8 “DHL Express announces two of the largest ever Sustainable Aviation Fuel deals with bp and Neste amounting to more than 800 million liters,” Deutsche Post DHL Group, March 21, 2022. targets that include compensation, 9 “Flying with purpose: Alaska sets new climate goals, including net-zero carbon emissions by 2040,” Alaska Airlines, April 21, 2021; “Hawaiian Airlines commits to new milestones on path to net-zero carbon emissions,” Hawaiian Airlines, March 30, 2023. and membership in coalitions. 10 “Lufthansa joins first movers coalition to drive global development of sustainable aviation fuels,” WEF, March 28, 2023. In addition to the defined paths to reduce emissions that are in line with the Paris Agreement, the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) has emerged as one of the leading standards (see sidebar “The Science Based Targets initiative”).

The Science Based Targets initiative

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) is a collaboration among four nongovernmental organizations: Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), the United Nations Global Compact, World Resources Institute (WRI), and the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF). The initiative aims to ensure emission-reduction targets set by companies are within the pace recommended by scientists to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. It also provides guidance and promotes best practices to reduce corporate greenhouse-gas emissions. As of April 2023, more than 4,500 companies have committed to or set science-based targets.

Recently, the SBTi has provided guidance for an interim aviation 1.5° pathway, implying strict emission-reduction targets for airlines: namely, a more than 30 percent CO 2 reduction per revenue ton kilometer (RTK) by 2030 compared to 2019 base year levels and a more than 50 percent reduction by 2035. 1 Base year and target year vary by airline. , 2 Technical report: The SBTi interim 1.5° sector pathway for Aviation , Science Based Targets, February 2023. In comparison, the International Energy Agency Net Zero Emissions pathway calls for approximately 38 percent emission reduction in 2030 and approximately 57 percent in 2035 compared to 2019 levels. Note that both pathways set targets for relative emissions only (measured per RTK).

As of April 2023, 25 airlines—mostly based in the Americas and Europe—have committed to setting or have set science-based targets. According to McKinsey analysis, this group represents more than 30 percent of global passenger traffic. On the OEM side, aerospace and defense companies, representing about 20 percent of the global value pool, have also committed to goals aligned with SBTi (Exhibit 1).

While the ambitions are clear, actors in the aviation sector are highly dependent on each other to achieve their decarbonization commitments. For example, more than 95 percent of aircraft OEMs’ emissions come from their Scope 3 Category 11 downstream emissions, 11 Scope 3 Category 11 emissions are released when sold products are used by the consumer. , 12 Future Air Mobility , “ A dual approach to decarbonization in aerospace ,” blog post by McKinsey, July 18, 2022. which is mostly airlines’ fuel burn. This interdependency has strengthened the industry’s unified ambition to decarbonize, but it also highlights the role that actors such as commercial aviation lessors, OEMs, and suppliers need to play to support airlines and offer solutions.

Factors affecting decarbonization

Options for airlines to abate CO 2 emissions differ based on existing fleet efficiency, the network of the airline, and the baseline decarbonization efforts already implemented by the airline.

From a technology perspective, the development to scale new SAF pathways with improved emission-reduction potential, such as advanced biofuels or power to liquid (PtL) fuels, is uncertain. 13 Bernd Heid, Nathan Lash, Robin Riedel, and Daniel Riefer, “ Clean skies for tomorrow: Delivering on the global power-to-liquid ambition ,” McKinsey, August 25, 2022. Biobased pathways face challenges in feedstock availability and collection to be immediately scalable, and PtL requires significant access to large amounts of renewable electricity. Other uncertainties remain about the progress in other technologies fields, such as new propulsion technology or advanced analytics for flight planning.

From a regulatory perspective, aviation players will need to adapt to the ever-changing implementation of regional incentives and penalties. For example, Europe’s reaction to the Inflation Reduction Act could change SAF-related decarbonization costs for European airlines.

Other industries such as marine and road transport, which are sourcing from the same sustainable fuel feedstock, also influence the aviation sector. This competition affects the balance of SAF supply and demand and therefore its market price, especially as the regulatory schemes and customer willingness to pay evolve.

Many decarbonization efforts also require investments with longer lead times that are not in line with traditional airline yearly business planning cycles and, as such, require a different view on economic and environmental returns. Although many airlines have shown strong financial results in 2022, outlooks are uncertain as the industry returns to pre-COVID-19 capacity levels, which drives traditional airlines to limit riskier investments despite their potential payoff beyond five-year financial plans.

These external factors have contributed to the struggle of companies across the aviation ecosystem to deploy multiple decarbonization efforts in the most cost-effective way, while managing uncertainties in parallel.

Introducing the marginal abatement cost curve

As the timeline to hit near-term emission targets shortens, aviation sector players are increasingly searching for ways to achieve these goals—and do so quickly to compensate for the long lead times of many initiatives. For example, solidifying sufficient access to affordable SAF can take several years, and renewing fleet quickly depends on OEMs’ or lessors’ ability to deliver or provide new aircraft.

Reading a marginal abatement cost curve

Initiatives are organized left to right on the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) based on the economic cost of the initiative’s emissions abatement. Leveraging the MACC, airlines can execute decarbonization initiatives by implementing cost-negative initiatives first, such as those that save fuel.

As a first step, airlines can evaluate carbon abatement costs and impact potential by developing their own marginal abatement cost curve (MACC). 14 For a perspective on how McKinsey has been using the MACC, see New at McKinsey Blog , “ A revolutionary tool for cutting emissions, ten years on ,” blog entry by McKinsey, April 21, 2017. This assessment helps companies compare and sequence different decarbonization measures while also allowing for adjustments and updates. It also helps companies determine the best and most cost-effective decarbonization solutions for the industry (see sidebar “Reading a marginal abatement cost curve”).

Categories within a typical MACC for airlines

Exhibit 2 illustrates a typical MACC for an airline. Actions are classified by three categories: operational measures (including air traffic management), fleet renewal, and SAF.

Operational measures. Operational and efficiency measures often come at negative or low costs (due to associated fuel savings) but are limited in their impact.

Airlines can relatively easily enforce initiatives within their own control, such as introducing pilot incentive programs to fly and taxi more fuel efficiently or imposing stricter operational weight limits to reduce fuel needs. Bolder moves could affect customer experiences, such as reducing ultra-long-haul flights, removing some catering on short-haul flights, or densifying cabins to include more seats.

Other efficiency efforts are dependent on collaboration among several stakeholders, especially to optimize air space usage. For example, the Single European Sky program 15 “Single European Sky,” European Commission, accessed May 25, 2023; Sesar Joint Undertaking website. aims to modernize air traffic control infrastructure to reduce up to 10 percent of emissions, 16 “Single European Sky: for a more sustainable and resilient air traffic management,” European Commission, September 22, 2020. and a similar program called NextGen 17 “Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen),” Federal Aviation Administration, updated May 12, 2023. is underway in the United States. However, an airline’s actual carbon emission savings depend on its exposure to the affected airspace, and emission reductions could be significantly lower than 10 percent.

Fleet renewal. Accelerated fleet rollover can come at negative marginal abatement cost, particularly when including the impact of regulatory action, such as future SAF mandates and kerosene taxes. Depending on the state of an airline’s fleet, the evolutionary rollover to already available aircraft types represents a decarbonization potential of up to 15 to 20 percent. 18 Future Air Mobility , “ Fuel efficiency: Why airlines need to switch to more ambitious measures ,” blog entry by Axel Esqué, Guenter Fuchs, and Robin Riedel, McKinsey, March 1, 2022. It is expected that next-generation aircraft, such as the Airbus A320neo or the Boeing 777-X family, will replace a significant share of current-generation aircraft in the next ten years (Exhibit 3).

In the long term, both OEMs and airlines could benefit from transitioning to more fuel-efficient aircraft and could adjust their prices to reflect greater fuel efficiency.

SAF. SAF is by far the most impactful initiative, but financial effects vary due to mandates, subsidies, sourcing approaches, voluntary commitments, and customers’ willingness to pay. Minimum sustainable fuel–blending mandates have been introduced in some geographies, and several airlines have committed to SAF volumes of 10 to 30 percent of total jet fuel used by 2030, totaling about 5 percent of expected aviation fuel demand in 2030. 19 The McKinsey Global Energy Perspective model.

Notably, many airlines have expressed concerns around the cost, production, and timing of new SAF technologies and raised questions regarding where responsibility for spearheading and paying for these efforts lies. 20 "Qatar Airways CEO suggests 2050 net-zero goal beyond reach," Reuters, May 23, 2023. , 21 “Boeing CEO warns climate-friendly biofuels will ‘never achieve the price of jet fuel’,” Financial Times , May 22, 2023. Producers will need to scale different SAF-production technologies beyond those currently used because today’s feedstocks, such as waste oils, are limited in availability. These new technologies, which are often still in developmental phases, and the costs of crucial input parameters, such as renewable electricity and green hydrogen, will affect costs to produce SAF.

Challenges influencing an MACC

Ever-changing regulations affect all solutions. It is important to recognize the full impact of regulations, such as SAF mandates and carbon taxes. Because an MACC displays only the marginal cost to the airline, a government-mandated increase in SAF at European airports, for example, will show an abatement impact in the curve but limited additional marginal costs to the airline. Still, it should be recognized that mandated SAF quotas could affect airlines’ competitiveness compared to carriers operating through hubs outside of the mandate’s geography. Carbon taxes such as the EU Emissions Trading System have an amplifying effect on the identified actions: as taxes increase, it becomes more costly to operate in a traditional way and emission-reduction strategies become less costly.

Quantifying levers is not easy. One challenge in developing an MACC lies in quantifying both the impact and estimating the associated cost of initiatives. MACCs are also not static; they look different every year. While the potential mitigation options for the aviation sector are relatively well known, the abatement opportunity and effective costs to airlines are typically not well quantified and are largely affected by many uncertainties in the market.

Customer willingness to pay is growing. Cargo, corporate, and leisure customers have signaled or have the propensity to pay for decarbonization measures. A 2023 McKinsey survey 22 May 2023 report forthcoming. For an analysis from 2021, see Mishal Ahmad, Frederik Franz, Tomas Nauclér, and Daniel Riefer, “ Opportunities for industry leaders as new travelers take to the skies ,” McKinsey, April 5, 2022. indicated that 85 percent of travelers globally said they were willing to pay 2 percent or more for carbon-neutral flight tickets, which is a significant increase compared to previous years: in 2019 and 2021, a McKinsey survey showed consumers’ willingness to pay more for carbon-neutral flight tickets was 46 and 39 percent, respectively. But consumers’ actual behavior may differ. Another survey indicated that only 14 percent of travelers actually pay more for sustainable options when they travel. 23 Accelerating the transition to net-zero travel: Strategies for action , a joint report from McKinsey and Skift, September 2022. Not only are consumer decisions subject to economic factors, but there is also a scarcity of sustainable booking options and unclear sustainability-related information. As such, raising ticket prices to factor in sustainable options could reduce demand or lead consumers to shift to other connections. Still, leading carriers could limit losing customers by creating transparency, debundling products, and driving personalized, sustainable offerings based on clear segmentation.

In addition to considering CO 2 abatement and the cost of certain actions, airlines can include additional sources and criteria in their decision making. For example, taking weight-reducing measures in the cabin to reduce CO 2 could have ramifications for an airline’s competitiveness and its customers’ experience.

Potential paths for OEMs in aviation decarbonization

MACCs will take different shapes for different stakeholders, and most initiatives will require actors to work together. Aviation OEM MACCs will likely predominantly focus on Scope 3 Category 11 emissions (use of sold products). OEMs are also dependent on airlines taking measures to improve operational efficiency to fulfil their own downstream decarbonization potential. As such, OEMs can work with airlines to aggregate demand for SAF, for instance, to reduce fuel burn in the short term.

More revolutionary technologies, such as hydrogen and electric propulsion, will likely be limited to short-haul or few-passenger use cases until 2035, and the path to scaling these technologies remains uncertain.

Considerations for implementation

A dynamic and flexible approach to decarbonization allows stakeholders to consider changes in the market and draw implications from external ambiguity. Once companies have established targets and determined their priorities, they can take steps to make these goals more accessible. They can first recognize inherent uncertainties with regulatory landscapes, customer behavior, technology development, SAF availability and prices, and emissions. Then they can create scenarios and identify no-regret moves in the next one to three years.

To ensure rigorous implementation across the different departments—which is especially relevant for weight-saving measures, in which many operational departments play a role—airlines can benefit from a central governance structure to track and trace progress and steer where needed. Leading airlines integrate this as much as possible into their regular business planning cycles.

Some themes, however, may require a temporary thematic governance structure. One example is the optimization of SAF procurement, managing short-term and long-term offtake agreements, and long-term coinvestments. Another one is taking equity stakes to invest in advanced air mobility start-ups that will help them accomplish mid-term and long-term goals.

Aviation companies that integrate decarbonization efforts into their standing business planning cycles can de-risk their sustainable transition and achieve optimized decarbonization costs. While decarbonizing the aviation industry is one of the largest challenges the industry has ever faced, the significant lead times of some investments heighten the urgency for companies across the aviation value chain to act quickly to position themselves better in the future. Airlines that embrace radical transparency on their decarbonization options and investigate partnerships with other aviation value-chain actors can determine the future of green aviation.

Axel Esqué is a partner in McKinsey’s Paris office, Frederik Franz is a consultant in the Berlin office, Geert Mulder is an associate partner in the Amsterdam office, Robin Riedel is a partner in the Bay Area office, and Daniel Riefer is a partner in the Munich office.

The authors would like to thank Andrea Cornell, Jeanne Ritter, Cameron Smith, and Jop Weterings for their contributions to this article.

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Hydrogen-powered aircraft in development by Australian company AMSL Aero aims for net zero aviation

While the race to transform electric vehicles on land speeds up, it is a different story in the sky.

Battery technology is not yet able to power even the smallest aircraft beyond 200 kilometres, and in Australia, that is hardly worth the effort.

But an Australian aviation startup on a mission to decarbonise air travel is developing a battery that could power a small aircraft to travel 1,000 km using hydrogen, and it already has a customer.

AMSL Aero received the first commercial order for its Vertiia aircraft from Aviation Logistics, the company behind regional airline AirLink.

AirLink chief executive Matthew Kline said the purchase was key to meet industry plans to be net zero by 2050.

"Using hydrogen is a game-changer for us, we can get up to 1,000km flight distance and that's what we need for the work we do," he said.

The next decade of aviation policy will be outlined with the release of the federal government's Aviation White Paper later this year.

Last year's Green Paper indicated two areas of focus were net zero emissions and accessibility for regional and remote communities, both of which could be supported by aircraft known as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) services.

Vertiia is the first Australian-made aircraft to apply for AAM-type certification through the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA).

In a statement, CASA called it an exciting yet "daunting" task, considering Vertiia had features of both a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft.

"Nobody's done this in Australia ever and in that sense, it will be breaking new ground," said manager of aircraft certification, Klaus Schwerdtfeger.

Testing is already underway at an airstrip near Wellington, in central-west New South Wales, and if all regulatory approvals are met, operations could begin in 2027.

AirLink plans to initially rollout Vertiia for its freight and charter flight services, with a view of later introducing the hydrogen-powered aircraft for its scheduled service flying Dubbo, Walgett, Bourke and Lightning Ridge.

"At the moment, we fly out to Bourke and leave the aircraft out there all day before we fly back in the afternoon," Mr Kline said.

"But because the running costs are so much lower, we could bring that aircraft back and do other flights or run there and back a few times in a day."

Takes off like a helicopter, flies like a plane

As companies across the globe work to improve the fuel efficiency of existing planes, AMSL Aero co-founder Siobhan Lyndon said they chose instead to start from scratch.

"There are companies who are retrofitting fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters but this is a clean-sheet design," she said.

Co-founder and chief engineer Andrew Moore took inspiration from another Australian inventor while developing the Vertiia's box-wing design.

"It's an evolution of the box kite which Lawrence Hargrave invented, and it's one of the oldest, funnily enough," he said.

Lawrence Hargrave was an Australian aeronautical pioneer who experimented with theories of flight to construct different flying machine models in the late 19th century.

"We actually did lots of configuration studies and just happened to come to the same conclusion that Hargrave did, the box-wing works really well."

The Vertiia design uses eight motors pointed vertically for take-off and landing that rotate to a horizontal position when at cruising altitudes up to 10,000 feet, or 3,000 metres.

While other electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) do exist, AMSL Aero hopes to be the first long-range eVTOL to market using hydrogen.

"Nearly all other eVTOL are focused on electric batteries which have a shorter range to serve the urban air mobility market like Manhattan, or that Silicon Valley-to-San Francisco route," Ms Lyndon said.

"Those aircraft will have a 160km range to start with, but we see hydrogen as a game changer for us to allow that longer range of 1,000km non-stop."

60 million drone flights annually by 2043

In October last year, researchers from Swinburne University of Technology completed the first flight of an uncrewed hydrogen fuel cell eVTOL drone in Australia.

By retrofitting existing drones with electric and hydrogen fuel cell systems, the Aerostructures Innovation Research (AIR) Hub team has been able to develop flight data for hydrogen-powered aircraft.

It is an area sorely lacking in data, according to AIR Hub director Adriano di Pietro.

"There is some work happening internationally, but it's usually locked up in a proprietary sense," Dr di Pietro said.

"The other reason we're doing this work is to really drive the use case and demand, to help Aussie companies actually justify doing first development for aviation systems."

AMSL Aero is also developing its own uncrewed aircraft after receiving a $3 million grant from the federal government's Cooperative Research Centre program to build a remotely piloted version of Vertiia to be used for aerial firefighting.

"Being remotely piloted, you might use it in ways that are too risky for a pilot today," Mr Moore said.

"It could potentially save people's lives on the ground by getting to those situations where there's a raging fire threatening people."

In March, Airservices Australia announced plans to develop a digital air traffic management system after an analysis projected the growth of drone and uncrewed aircraft would reach 60 million annual flights by 2043 .

"I think what is not talked about a lot is the fact that aviation underpins a lot of industry in Australia that most people aren't aware of," Dr di Pietro said.

"Most of the land area of Australia is serviced by aviation and certainly, there is a big government push at the moment to drive that forward."

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This Saudi Airline Hopes to Triple in Size: The CEO’s Plan For Getting There

Gordon Smith , Skift

May 13th, 2024 at 5:56 AM EDT

Flyadeal's new CEO Steven Greenway says the scale of airline's expansion attracted him to the role. His challenge now is turning targets into tangible results.

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Even by Saudi standards, the goals are ambitious: By 2030,  the country wants 330 million passengers to pass through its airports annually, up from around 112 million last year.

To get there, the Saudi airline sector is growing faster than almost anywhere on the planet.

New carrier Riyadh Air has grabbed  most of the attention . However, there’s another shift underway: The rise of the Saudi low-cost airline. 

Flyadeal is the budget subsidiary of Saudia, the country’s national carrier . Since launching in 2017, it’s grown to become one of the nation’s biggest low-cost operators. 

By the end of the decade, flyadeal is set to triple in size, from 32 planes today, to almost 100. Dozens of new destinations are set to be added to its route map, with international links into Europe and the Indian subcontinent. 

Trying to take this vision from spreadsheet to the skies is Steven Greenway, who was appointed flyadeal CEO in January. He was a founding member and CCO of Scoot, Singapore Airlines’ budget subsidiary , and also served as president of Swoop, a Canadian ultra-low-cost carrier that later merged with WestJet.

While the opportunities for Greenway are vast, so are the challenges. Adding huge capacity into a developing market in a short space of time can be difficult.

In the latest of our  Leaders of Travel: Skift C-Suite Series , we sit down with Greenway to find out how ambitions can translate to reality.

Which Planes Will Fuel the Expansion?

Skift: Before you joined flyadeal, there was a publicly shared goal of having around 100 planes in the fleet by the end of the decade. Is that still on the cards? 

Steven Greenway: Yes. The ambitious growth plan at flyadeal was the reason I was attracted to the airline. You’re going to see us leapfrog from 32 aircraft today to just shy of 100 in four or five years – more than tripling in size.

Our background is domestic flying and this still makes up around 80% of our capacity. Moving forward, the dynamics will change slightly because we’ll continue to grow domestically, but also branch out internationally. The airline is morphing into more of an equal blend of domestic and international flying.

We know that the additional 65 or so aircraft will be Airbus narrowbodies. Do you have any wiggle room regarding the size and variant? 

The order book is a mix of Airbus A320s and A321s. I can’t talk about what the actual mix is, but our A321s start arriving in 2026. It’s that well-worn strategy seen in other parts of the world wherever you have slot constraints where you deploy the A321 to give you extra capacity. But it’s also about enabling us to grow with what we have.

There are only so many times you can fly between Riyadh and Jeddah. We already have 22 flights a day. You can add another one every 15 minutes, you can use that slot for something else like an international service, or you can upgauge the size of the aircraft.

The mission set between the A320 and A321 is exactly the same, it’s just that we’re getting more seats. It offers flexibility in a part of the world where there’s a lot of seasonality. There are peaks and troughs in terms of demand. Of course, that’s true for a lot of markets, but particularly here in the Middle East.

Taking a look inside the plane, would you consider introducing a hybrid premium product like we’ve seen at other low-cost carriers?

I’ve worked at airlines that have done both. However, in my mind the premium cabin really only comes into play after four or five hours. We’re comfortable with the product we have. We’re constantly upgrading the seats, installing huge overhead bins, and offering in-seat power. When you consider all of these things combined, there’s enough there that people are reasonably comfortable for the mission sets that we have for the aircraft.

An Increasingly Familiar Business Model

How responsive is the Saudi market, and consumers more generally in the region, to the low-cost carrier (LCC) concept? 

Saudi Arabia is as commercialized as any country in Europe. They get what the trade-off is. You have airlines like Wizz coming into the country, Air Arabia, you have us. We all have similarly common practices with unbundled fares, so it’s nothing unfamiliar to this market. 

You have Saudia at the top offering full service, you have flynas in the middle doing a hybrid, and you have us doing a pure LCC play. People have choices in the market, which is great. They get what the proposition is, it’s not something that you have to educate them on per se. 

Are there any areas where further progress could be made?

I think the things that we need to improve are more around customer service and expectations. In some countries and regions, online check-in can be between 90-99%. It’s not here. Online check-in is not anywhere near as high as we would like, but it is progressing in the right way.

People also still carry a lot of baggage. For example, in Europe, people are able to survive with a backpack for the weekend because they want to save the money. That’s their choice. Here it’s a slightly different market, but it is adapting.

Flyadeal’s Growth Trajectory 

Flyadeal plans to operate to more than 100 destinations by 2030. What are the key markets and geographies to watch? 

The country is opening up for both domestic and inbound tourism. What you have is Saudis discovering Saudi Arabia. It’s not that they couldn’t travel around before, it’s that there simply wasn’t that mobility five or ten years ago.

I read the other day that Riyadh to Jeddah is probably going to be the busiest route in the world in the next couple of years – it’s come out of nowhere.

But there’s a lot more expansion to do within Saudi Arabia, especially when you look at the mega projects that are opening up. One good example is the Red Sea resorts. A new airport has opened there and it’s not even on our route map at the moment. It’s certainly something that we’ll be looking at over the next couple of years.

And what about your international ambitions? 

India is of incredible interest to us. The UAE and the Middle East in general are still underserved in terms of points into and out of Saudi Arabia. We also have to consider the secondary points. Everyone speaks about Riyadh and Jeddah, but what Dammam, what about Madinah? For example, we might already be operating to Dubai from Riyadh but we’re not from Madinah. So we’ll start joining the dots on that type of route as well. 

And then there’s southern and southeast Europe. We really haven’t touched on that except for some summer seasonal flying, which has been successful. But getting in there and branching into that market is a huge opportunity for us as well.

We’ve seen other low-cost airlines in the region and further afield open foreign subsidiaries. Is this of interest to you?

Never say never, but it’s really not on our radar. The reason is we believe in so much potential in Saudi Arabia that we don’t have to go fishing. Typically it happens when you’re a city-state, you’ve got no domestic market, you’re a pure international player – therefore you’re looking for other markets to open up. We’re not in that position.

We have a 10-year fleet plan, we know where the aircraft are going to go – obviously subject to change – and all of those are going into the Saudi market, either domestically or internationally.

The Future of Flying

Before joining flyadeal you were involved in the AI space. How much scope is there for this technology in the airline industry?

I think there’s huge potential. The question is does it replace human thinking and decision making? Or does it supplement and support and provide insight? I think there’s a lot of hype out there and that question still hasn’t been answered. I see AI as a companion to decision-making to support a whole range of factors.

Everything from call centers to network planning to operations control. We’re putting in scenarios, and we’re getting back a range of options that we can make decisions on as a business – that’s where we are experimenting as an airline. 

And finally, what are your key trends to watch for the coming year?

The continued growth, or boom, in Saudi Arabia. Watch how it manifests itself. You’ll also continue to see the Kingdom shape what its ambitions are. Keep an eye out for that because some of the things that are coming online, or to be announced, are absolutely phenomenal. I can’t speak about them, but I certainly know what’s coming and I think this is going to be a very interesting market.

This interview was edited for clarity and length.

Read more from our new  Leaders of Travel: Skift C-Suite Series   here .

Airlines Sector Stock Index Performance Year-to-Date

What am I looking at?  The performance of airline sector stocks within the  ST200 . The index includes companies publicly traded across global markets including network carriers, low-cost carriers, and other related companies.

The Skift Travel 200 (ST200)  combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars into a single number.  See more airlines sector financial performance . 

Read the full methodology behind the Skift Travel 200.

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US air taxi makers spending big on electric aircraft development

US air taxi companies keep burning significant cash as they drive toward commercialisation of their respective electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. 

Santa Clara-based Archer Aviation reports spending $142 million during the first quarter for a net loss of $117 million, as the company has yet to fly passengers or deliver its Midnight aircraft to customers.

But it is making up-front investments it believes will pay off in the future. Namely, Archer is assembling six Midnight prototypes that will be used in flight testing for certification with the Federal Aviation Administration and making supply chain investments to support future production. 

”We continue to experience negative cash flows from operations as we are still working to design, develop, certify and bring up manufacturing of our eVTOL aircraft and thus have not generated any revenues from either of our planned lines of business,” the start-up discloses in a 9 May financial filing. 

Source: Archer Aviation

Archer says it is on track to perform a transition flight with a nonconforming prototype of Midnight 

High spending on research and development is to be expected from start-ups that have yet to launch revenue-generating services with a new class of aircraft – none of which have cleared certification with the FAA. But cash burn is one metric that analysts use when appraising the relative health of publicly traded companies such as Archer, fellow California start-up Joby Aviation and South Florida’s Eve Air Mobility. 

“In Joby’s case, one of the reasons we like them is because they have the strongest balance sheet in the industry,” Andres Sheppard, a senior equity analyst at Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, told FlightGlobal last month. “They have the highest cash burn in the industry but they have the highest cash balance.”

Santa Cruz-based Joby reported this week spending some $146 million during the first quarter to support certification efforts and “manufacturing prototype aircraft, parts and test articles”. Those expenses were offset by $51 million in interest and other income.

The company reports holding $924 million in cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter, down from a little more than $1 billion at the same time last year. 

Source: Joby Aviation

Joby is widely viewed as the frontrunner for FAA certification among US air taxi developers

Embraer-backed Eve reports a $33.9 million loss from operations, including spending $27.5 million on research and development, during the first quarter. The company is currently assembling its first full-scale prototype at a production facility in Brazil. 

Eve notes that research and development costs increased roughly $6 million over the same period of last year, ”primarily due to an increase in R&D’s team headcount, higher engineering expenses… and higher expenses related to cost of supplies for the development of the prototype vehicle”.

The nonconforming prototype includes ”batteries, motors, thermal management systems, propellers and other components” that will be used in later variants.

Eve’s development costs include those related to shoring up its supply chain. ”Additional milestone payments and purchases of parts, equipment and supplies went to suppliers and outside contractors in connection with the continued development of the prototype vehicle,” the start-up says. 

Meanwhile, Archer is moving forward on a “high-scale automated battery pack manufacturing line”, chief executive Adam Goldstein said during the company’s 9 May earnings briefing. 

“This line is capable of producing enough battery packs to support our planned production plant in Georgia,” he says. ”I am confident that we are leading the way in the industry with this capability and that our investment there will pay off for years to come.”

Based at Archer’s facilities in San Jose, California, the manufacturing line will be capable of producing some 15,000 battery packs annually. 

The start-up has made such investments across its supply chain, Goldstein adds, having spent more than $50 million with suppliers to support future aircraft manufacturing. “As these capital expenditures and upfront non-recurring costs roll off, I expect we will naturally reduce our [cash] burn… as we shift into preparing for commercial launch heading into next year.”

As of 31 March, Archer held $406 million of cash and equivalents, a decrease from $450 million it held on the same date of 2023. As the company’s largest shareholder, Goldstein says he is aware of potential dilution of Archer’s share value as the company balances its desire to grow quickly. He maintains that Archer is “massively undervalued relative to the proprietary step changing technology we are creating”, adding that it is seeking to raise more capital in the lead-up to launching passenger flights. 

Archer and Joby are both exploring the possibility of launching operations in the Middle East after achieving FAA certification. 

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Keyamo receives Air France-KLM team, advocates low fares

T he Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has received the Air France-KLM team, urging the airline to offer low-priced ticket fares to Nigerians.

This is contained in a statement signed by Mr Tunde Moshood, Special Adviser to the Minister on Media and Communications, on Monday in Lagos.

Moshood said the team was led by the Country Manager, Christine Quantin; Key Account Manager, Commercial Division, Antonia Umunna; and Deputy Station Manager, Damilola Ogunseye.

According to him, the delegation expressed gratitude for the minister’s support and discussed several key initiatives aimed at elevating aviation services in Nigeria.

Moshood noted that during the meeting, Air France-KLM expressed appreciation for the improved facilities at Murtala Muhammed International Airport, particularly acknowledging the enhanced experience at Wing E.

He said the airline also extended gratitude for the minister’s leadership in fostering a smoother relationship between their team and various aviation regulatory agencies.

Moshood said the airline announced the launch of a new Airbus A330/A350 aircraft, emphasizing its dedication to deploying modern and improved aircraft services on routes within Nigeria.

This initiative, he said, aligned with its overarching goal of providing Nigerian travellers with a superior journey experience.

He said Air France-KLM, thereafter, commended the minister for his intervention and successful facilitation of funds repatriation, showcasing the effectiveness of collaborative efforts in overcoming challenges within the aviation sector.

Keyamo, while welcoming the team, emphasized the importance of equitable pricing for Nigerian travellers, urging the airline to consider offering lower-priced ticket fares to ensure parity with fares in neighbouring regions.

The minister, further, reiterated Nigeria’s commitment to fostering partnerships within the travel industry, specifically the government’s open-door policy and willingness to collaborate with airlines to enhance travel accessibility and affordability for Nigerians.

“The courtesy visit by Air France-KLM exemplifies the mutual commitment to advancing the aviation sector in Nigeria.

“It lays the groundwork for future collaborations aimed at delivering unparalleled travel experiences to passengers across the nation,” he said.

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1. The Central Air Force Museum

2. Church of St. George