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China's President Xi Jinping is in Moscow for a 3-day state visit with Russia's Putin

Leila Fadel

Charles Maynes

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is expected to focus heavily on the war in Ukraine, and comes after a surprise weekend trip by Putin into Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.

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Putin hosts China's president Xi in Moscow amid Ukraine war

The two leaders called each "dear friends" at the start of the three-day visit.

HONG KONG and LONDON -- Chinese President Xi Jinping has held the first day of talks with Vladimir Putin during a closely watched state visit to Moscow, with the two leaders presenting a united front against the West just days after the Russian president was accused by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes .

Xi's three-day state visit is the strongest show of support from China to Russia since the latter's invasion of Ukraine , representing a significant boost for Putin, and comes as Xi has sought to frame Beijing as a possible peace-maker in the conflict, even as Western countries have warned he is considering providing weapons to Moscow.

Xi landed at Moscow's Vnukovo airport on Monday afternoon, greeted by a Russian military band, telling camera crews on the tarmac that China and Russia were ready "to stand guard over the world order based on international law." A motorcade then whisked Xi to the Kremlin, where he was welcomed by Putin.

MORE: Russia-Ukraine live updates

Speaking ahead of initial informal talks, both men described each other as "dear friends." Putin spoke admiringly of China's "colossal leap forward," adding: "All over the world, this is of genuine interest, and we even envy you a little."

Xi also praised Putin's leadership, noting he had chosen to make Russia his visit after being proclaimed president for an unprecedented third term.

Putin said the two would discuss a peace initiative that China put forward last month. Putin said he had "acquainted himself in detail" with the proposal, praising it for following the "principles of fairness." The two met for 4.5 hours afterward, sharing a dinner together, according to Putin's spokesman, ahead of formal talks on Tuesday.

MORE: China's Xi to meet with Putin in Moscow Monday in show of support

China has sought to present itself as neutral, but in reality has provided Russia with an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions and helped it source sanctioned components, such as semiconductors, for its war machine. The 12-point peace proposal China published follows the Kremlin's narrative of the war and calls for an immediate cease-fire, without demanding Russia withdraw its troops.

The Biden administration on Monday said such a cease-fire would "would effectively be supporting the ratification of Russian conquest," by freezing the conflict and allowing the Kremlin to keep the territory it has seized from Ukraine, while giving Russia time to regroup for a fresh attack.

"It would recognize Russia's attempts to seize a sovereign neighbor's territory by force. A ceasefire now, without a durable solution, would allow President Putin to rest and refit his troops and then restart the war at a time more advantageous to Russia," Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters.

Any plan that does not prioritize Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity "is a stalling tactic at best, or is merely seeking to facilitate an unjust outcome," Blinken said. "The world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its own terms."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been careful not to criticize the Chinese proposal, but his senior advisers have repeatedly warned that they believe a cease-fire that doesn't call for Russia to withdraw its forces is a trap designed to favor the Kremlin. Xi is expected to have a call with Zelensky following his meeting with Putin, the first since the war started.

Xi did not mention Ukraine in his remarks with Putin Monday, but in an article published under his name in Russian state media, Xi touted the plan, claiming it reflected the consensus views of the international community.

China's peace proposal is a "fig leaf," Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Russia-China relations at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, told ABC News. The plan is intended to give Xi diplomatic cover for his visit to Moscow, allowing him to present China as a responsible power to countries in the Global South and counter criticism that it's abetting Putin in the war, Gabuev said.

Xi's visit underscored how strongly China views Russia as a partner for its long-term goal of challenging the United States' dominance in the international order, a point driven home by Xi's warm words for Putin just days after the ICC war crimes indictment.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Monday said ICC officials should "respect the jurisdictional immunity enjoyed by the head of state in accordance with international law," and that the court should attempt to avoid "politicization and double standards."

MORE: How China's Xi Jinping flipped the script on the world during his 10 years in power

Xi is staying at the Soluxe Hotel in northern Moscow. Formal talks between the presidents' delegations are scheduled to be held Tuesday, as well as a state dinner, according to the Kremlin.

Western countries have warned that China may be considering supplying Russia with lethal aid, such as weapons and ammunition, going beyond the assistance it has already provided. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday said the U.S. did not believe China has decided yet to send weapons, saying U.S. officials had reiterated warnings to Chinese officials that it would "not be in their best interest" to do so.

China has denied it is planning to send weapons. Experts say that while aid such as artillery ammunition and attack drones would be highly valued by the Kremlin, the economic support and components already being supplied by China are significant in allowing Russia to continue its war.

ABC News' Joe Simonetti and Ellie Kaufman contributed to this story.

Related Topics

Putin and Xi vow to deepen 'no limits' partnership as Russia advances in Ukraine

HONG KONG — They’ve already declared it has “no limits,” and on Thursday Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to deepen a partnership increasingly characterized by their countries’ clash with the West.

The two autocratic leaders met in Beijing in a show of unity between the two U.S. rivals as Putin wages a new offensive in his war on Ukraine .

Putin’s two-day state visit to China is his first overseas trip since he began a fifth term in office with a shake-up of his military leadership. It comes as Russia has seized the initiative in the war, now in its third year, and as the United States intensifies pressure on China to do more to stop it.

In February 2022, days before Putin invaded Ukraine, he and Xi declared a “no limits” partnership , and the two longtime leaders are personal friends. On Thursday, they signed a joint statement deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between their two countries.

That is not the same as a formal alliance, but the possibility that China and Russia could one day form one serves as a kind of “strategic ambiguity” that can constrain the U.S. and others, said Natasha Kuhrt, a senior lecturer in international peace and security at King’s College London.

“They can keep us guessing about whether they will or won’t escalate, whether they will or won’t strengthen the partnership and the direction of an alliance and that in itself is a kind of deterrent,” she told NBC News.

Relations between China and Russia, which are celebrating 75 years of diplomatic relations during Putin’s visit, have been strongly tested by the war in Ukraine and Putin’s growing international isolation amid Western opposition to it.

Though China has strived to portray itself as neutral in the conflict, it has provided Russia with diplomatic support as well as advanced technology with both civilian and military uses. It is also an increasingly important economic partner for Russia, becoming one of the top markets for its Western-sanctioned oil and gas.

China has also put forward a vague, 12-point peace plan that would allow Russia to retain its territorial gains in Ukraine and has been dismissed by the West.

On Thursday, Putin said he was “grateful” for China’s initiatives to resolve the war in Ukraine, while Xi said China “hopes for the early return of Europe to peace and stability and will continue to play a constructive role toward this.”

Though still willing to show support for his “dear friend” Putin, Xi also has to consider what it might cost him in his relations with the U.S. and Europe.

The U.S., which last month approved $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine that is just starting to arrive, has imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies accused of aiding the Russian war effort, and is also threatening to sanction Chinese banks.During a visit to Beijing last month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine without China’s support,” and that he had told Chinese officials that “if China does not address this problem, we will.”

Xi, who is seeking to retain or expand overseas markets amid an economic slowdown at home , is also reluctant to alienate leaders in Europe. Last week, during his first visit to the continent in five years , Xi was pressured by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to use his influence over Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Xi rejected their criticism of his country’s relationship with Russia, and said China was not a participant in the war. But the pressure may be having an effect: After a record $240 billion in overall trade between China and Russia last year, Chinese exports to Russia fell in March for the first time since 2022.

Both Xi and Putin have also moved away from the term “no limits” when it comes to talking about their ties.

“Xi basically doesn’t really talk about it in those terms anymore. He talks about a good neighborly relationship, comprehensive strategic coordination and mutually beneficial cooperation,” Kuhrt said. “And Russia talks about flexible strategic partnerships.”

Victor Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, said China did not have to choose between Russia and the West.

“I think China should make continuous efforts to improve the relationship between China and the West. In fact, this is not contradictory to improving relations between China and Russia,” said Gao, who is also chair professor at Soochow University.

Putin arrived in the Chinese capital early Thursday and was greeted with full military honors outside the Great Hall of the People next to Tiananmen Square, where he shook hands with Xi before heading inside for talks.In addition to Beijing, Putin is expected to visit the northeastern city of Harbin, near the two countries’ 2,600-mile border, which is holding a China-Russia trade fair this week.

In an interview Wednesday with Xinhua , China’s state-run news agency, Putin cited the “unprecedented level of strategic partnership between our countries” as his reason for making China the first stop of his fifth term.

Among those traveling with Putin is Andrei Belousov, an economist who was named the Russian defense minister this week in a surprise shake-up. His predecessor, Sergei Shoigu , is also on the trip.

Russia’s new offensive in northern Ukraine has made early gains, worrying Kyiv and its allies that Putin’s military may be able to make decisive progress in the coming weeks.

Xi, 70, and Putin, 71, have met more than 40 times, either in person or virtually. Putin was last in Beijing in October , while Xi was in Moscow days after he secured an unprecedented third term as Chinese president in March 2023.

Jennifer Jett is the Asia Digital Editor for NBC News, based in Hong Kong.

Larissa Gao is a fellow on NBC’s Asia Desk, based in Hong Kong.

Mithil Aggarwal is a Hong Kong-based reporter/producer for NBC News.

Chinese president visits Putin in Russia as the countries increase cooperation

Nick Schifrin Nick Schifrin

Zeba Warsi Zeba Warsi

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Teresa Cebrián Aranda Teresa Cebrián Aranda

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• Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chinese-president-visits-putin-in-russia-as-the-countries-increase-cooperation

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow Monday for a three-day state visit to Russia. Relations between the two countries have grown closer over the past year as China’s imports of Russian oil have increased and both countries seek to undercut the U.S. on the world stage. Sasha Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussed the visit with Nick Schifrin.

Read the Full Transcript

Notice: Transcripts are machine and human generated and lightly edited for accuracy. They may contain errors.

Geoff Bennett:

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow today for a three-day state visit to Russia.

Relations between the two countries have grown closer over the past year, as China's imports of Russian oil have increased, and both countries seek to undercut the U.S. on the world stage.

Nick Schifrin has the story.

Nick Schifrin:

They call each other dear old friends. And in their 40th meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping labeled Russian President Vladimir Putin his partner in war and peace.

Xi Jinping, Chinese President (through translator):

China attaches great importance to China-Russia relations, because we are each other's biggest neighboring countries as well as strategic partners.

The two men share authoritarian recipes for power and a mutual desire to upend U.S. influence. China remains one of the biggest buyers of Russian energy.

Chinese companies are providing Russia with parts essential to maintain Russian weapons. The two countries conduct joint military exercises. And since the war in Ukraine began, China has neither endorsed, nor condemned it. Beijing's new peace plan calls for upholding Ukraine's sovereignty, but not for Russian troops to withdraw, an approach Putin endorsed today.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, Russian President (through translator):

We know that you proceed from the principles of justice and observance of the fundamental provisions of international law, of indivisible security for all countries.

But, today, Secretary of State Antony Blinken rejected in advance any call for a cease-fire.

Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State: Calling for a cease-fire that does not include the removal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory would effectively be supporting the ratification of Russian conquest. It would recognize Russia's attempts to seize a sovereign neighbor's territory by force. It would enable Russia to further entrench positions in Ukraine.

This weekend, Putin tried to show just how entrenched his position in Ukraine already is. In a staged and scripted nighttime visit, Russian TV showed him speaking to residents of Mariupol. Never mind the daytime view, a city nearly obliterated by Russian troops.

This weekend, Putin also visited Russian-occupied Crimea, including what Russian media described as a children's center, one day after Putin became an indicted war criminal for allegedly overseeing the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

In part because of those war crimes, Putin and Russia are increasingly isolated. But today's visit came with an endorsement from the leader of the world's second largest economy and military.

Xi Jinping (through translator):

Thanks to your strong leadership, Russia has achieved significant success in reaching prosperity and well-being of the country. I am sure that the people of Russia will support you in your best efforts.

Beijing cast Xi as a peacemaker, and he's expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following his trip to Moscow.

So, what is driving the increased level of cooperation between Russia and China?

For that, we turn to Sasha Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who joins us from Geneva.

Sasha Gabuev, welcome to the "NewsHour." Thanks very much.

Firstly, how important is it for Putin to get this visit from Xi?

Sasha Gabuev, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: It is very important, because China over the course of the last 12-plus months has turned into a major supporter of Russia. It's the major market for Russian hydrocarbons and the major source of cash for Putin's war chest.

It's the major source of imports, including dual-use imports and civilian chips, that enable Putin's war economy going. When China stands next to you or behind you, you can say that you are not isolated.

So, I want to drill down into what China is sending to Russia. But, first, let's get the other side.

How does Xi Jinping see the importance of the relationship between Beijing and Moscow right now?

Sasha Gabuev:

I think, for Xi Jinping, the relationship with Russia was always important.

Russia is an important source of raw materials. And Russia is the only like-minded authoritarian state on the U.N. Security Council among permanent members.

But what also colors his perspective now is this view that the U.S.-China relationship is going off the cliff. It's continued confrontation that gets worse. And here Russia as a junior partner is a very valuable assets.

And that is the case especially as President Biden sees the world or at least paints the world in terms of democracy vs. authoritarianism, right?

That's absolutely right.

That's the depiction that helps to bring Russia and China closer together, particularly since both are quite obsessed about what they see the U.S. democracy promotion effort. Both Xi Jinping and Putin see themselves vulnerable at home, and they definitely want to join hands to push back against U.S. hegemony.

Senior U.S. officials are particularly worried about right now if China were to decide to send weapons openly to Russia.

But how do you see China already supporting Russia's war in Ukraine?

I think that providing cash by opening its market for Russian hydrocarbons is very important, because soldiers need to be paid and all of the military procurements also need to be covered.

But, also, China provides the civilian chips and also some of the components of Russian arms, like radars and surface-to-air missiles and many other arms and Russian weapons that are used on the battlefield in Ukraine.

And are these supply chains that are going from China to Russia? Are they long established? Because U.S. officials have repeatedly said that Beijing hasn't made the overt decision to arm Russia.

These are long established relationships. These are not ready weapons, re complete. These are just components.

But these are ties from sanctioned Chinese entities to sanctioned Russian entities that go back years and years. We don't see evidence that China has already provided some significant amount of weapons that will be lethal and that will be used on the battlefield.

As I mentioned before, Beijing portrays Xi Jinping as a peacemaker and this visit as part of a diplomatic effort to try and end the war in Ukraine.

How much of this visit is really about that effort?

Right now, the mood in Kyiv and in Moscow is give war a chance.

China perfectly gets it. And, for Beijing, its diplomatic effort is just more a tool to push back against Western criticism that it's leaning too much in support of Vladimir Putin's war. And, at the same time, it provides justification for Xi Jinping to go to Moscow to engage Putin on a state visit.

But that needs to be coupled with outreach to President Zelenskyy, which will also happen, but in a separate phone call, rather than a full-fledged visit.

And, finally, we expect a joint statement out of this trip from both leaders.

What should we be looking out for?

The language might be a little bit guarded, but it cannot mask that the relationship is getting deeper, it's increasingly asymmetric, the terms are dictated by China, and that the primary target that they have in mind as their opponent are the United States of America.

There will be some documents that are the underwater part of the iceberg, for example, decisions to sell secretive Russian military technology, like surface-to-air systems, S-500, or the most advanced Russian fighter jets, to China that both Moscow and Beijing is not the right time to publicize that, given the war and the negative optics.

But it's OK to start implementing them and go public about that months from now and maybe even years from now.

Sasha Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, thank you very much.

Thank you for having me.

Listen to this Segment

Watch the Full Episode

Nick Schifrin is PBS NewsHour’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Correspondent. He leads NewsHour’s daily foreign coverage, including multiple trips to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, and has created weeklong series for the NewsHour from nearly a dozen countries. The PBS NewsHour series “Inside Putin’s Russia” won a 2017 Peabody Award and the National Press Club’s Edwin M. Hood Award for Diplomatic Correspondence. In 2020 Schifrin received the American Academy of Diplomacy’s Arthur Ross Media Award for Distinguished Reporting and Analysis of Foreign Affairs. He was a member of the NewsHour teams awarded a 2021 Peabody for coverage of COVID-19, and a 2023 duPont Columbia Award for coverage of Afghanistan and Ukraine. Prior to PBS NewsHour, Schifrin was Al Jazeera America's Middle East correspondent. He led the channel’s coverage of the 2014 war in Gaza; reported on the Syrian war from Syria's Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian borders; and covered the annexation of Crimea. He won an Overseas Press Club award for his Gaza coverage and a National Headliners Award for his Ukraine coverage. From 2008-2012, Schifrin served as the ABC News correspondent in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 2011 he was one of the first journalists to arrive in Abbottabad, Pakistan, after Osama bin Laden’s death and delivered one of the year’s biggest exclusives: the first video from inside bin Laden’s compound. His reporting helped ABC News win an Edward R. Murrow award for its bin Laden coverage. Schifrin is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a board member of the Overseas Press Club Foundation. He has a Bachelor’s degree from Columbia University and a Master of International Public Policy degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

Zeba Warsi is a foreign affairs producer, based in Washington DC. She's a Columbia Journalism School graduate with an M.A. in Political journalism.

As the deputy senior producer for foreign affairs and defense at the PBS NewsHour, Dan plays a key role in helping oversee and produce the program’s foreign affairs and defense stories. His pieces have broken new ground on an array of military issues, exposing debates simmering outside the public eye.

As the Associate Producer for the Foreign Affairs & Defense unit, Teresa writes and produces daily segments for the millions of viewers in the U.S. and beyond who depend on PBS NewsHour for timely, relevant information on the world’s biggest issues. She’s reported on authoritarianism in Latin America, rising violence in Haiti, Egypt’s crackdown on human rights, Israel’s judicial reforms and China’s zero-covid policy, among other topics. She also contributed to the PBS NewsHour’s coverage of the war in Ukraine, which was named recipient of a duPont-Columbia Award in 2023.

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Xi Jinping to visit Russia in show of support for Vladimir Putin

China says president will meet Russian leader next week with aim of deepening partnership

• Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates

China’s president is to visit Russia next week in an apparent show of support for Vladimir Putin , the Chinese foreign ministry has said.

The Kremlin also announced the visit, scheduled for 20-22 March, saying it would take place “at the invitation of Vladimir Putin”.

Xi Jinping and Putin would be discussing issues of further development of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction between Russia and China, as well as exchanging views “in the context of deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the international arena”, the Kremlin added.

The two leaders will also sign “important” bilateral documents.

The visit will be Xi’s first foreign trip since securing a third term as China’s president at the annual parliamentary session on 10 March. It will also be the first time Xi has visited Putin, the man who he has previously described as his “best friend”, since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

China and Russia’s “no limits” friendship has been tested by Russia’s war in Ukraine . The invasion seemed to take China by surprise and since then Xi has tried to play the role of mediator while supporting Putin in international forums. China has blocked G20 statements condemning the war and abstained from UN votes on the same matter.

Beijing has vigorously denied US claims it is considering sending lethal arms to Russia. Last month Xi published a 12-point “position paper” on the crisis, which was widely dismissed as anodyne. It implicitly blamed Nato for provoking the conflict. Both China and Russia oppose western-led military blocs.

Xi is also reported to be planning a phone call next week with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s president, although this has not been confirmed.

On Thursday, China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, saying China hoped “Ukraine and Russia will retain hope for dialogue and negotiation and not close the door to a political solution, no matter how difficult and challenging it may be”, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement.

Since the start of the invasion trade between Russia and China has increased, and China is the biggest importer of Russian oil.

But Beijing is also trying to maintain its trade relationships with Europe , especially as it seeks to recover economically from three years of its zero-Covid policy. That means Xi is treading a fine line between supporting his best friend and protecting his own interests.

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It's Debatable: What Does Xi’s Visit to Russia Mean for the World?

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What Does Xi’s Visit to Russia Mean for the World?

China’s embrace of russia seems politically risky but beijing is also benefiting economically and emerging as the dominant power..

• Emma Ashford
• Matthew Kroenig

It’s Debatable : The Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford and the Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig debate pressing issues for policymakers.

Emma Ashford: Hey, Matt! It’s almost the best time of the year in Washington: spring! The weather is warming up, the cherry blossoms are flowering, there are tourists everywhere clogging up traffic, and my allergies are going haywire.

Matt Kroenig: Hi Emma! I am also looking forward to the warmer weather. And the cherry trees are not the only thing blossoming.

What do you make of the Xi-Putin lovefest in Moscow this week?

EA: Aside from the comically oversized flags , you mean?

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has been pretty hotly anticipated, and it was a chance for Russian President Vladimir Putin—presumably still reeling from his indictment on war crimes by the International Criminal Court—to demonstrate to the world that he still has powerful friends in high places. But I don’t feel like there have been any surprises out of the summit so far, just more of the same: trade promises, talks about energy, and reiterating that the two countries share a strong partnership.

What about you?

MK: Well, the videos of dozens of bags of Kentucky Fried Chicken delivered to Xi’s hotel demonstrated the irresistible soft power of the United States—even to the world’s fiercest anti-American dictators! Little do they know it is all part of Washington’s secret plan for Col. Sanders to kill them quietly through their arteries.

EA: I will never understand the Asian obsession with KFC . At times it seems like there are more KFC restaurants per square mile in Beijing than there are Peking Duck joints.

MK: Apart from that, Putin’s motivation for the meeting is easy to explain. He is now an international pariah, but this was an opportunity for him to show that he is still accepted by the leader of the world’s second most powerful country—even if it is increasingly as a vassal state.

Xi’s motivation is more puzzling. His embrace of Putin and deepening of ties with Russia will further damage China’s image in Europe and the free world. In an interesting juxtaposition, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was in Kyiv at the same time. The paired visits were a poignant symbolic and substantive reminder of how Beijing and Tokyo’s current alignment choices are roughly the reverse of their World War II positions.

Some have speculated that Xi’s visit is part of a new strategy of writing off the United States and its democratic allies—which Xi sees as implacably opposed to China’s rise—and a move to deepen ties with Russia and become a leader of the developing world, all with the goal of creating a more multipolar distribution of power.

It adds up, I guess, but it seems to be a continuation of Xi’s poor decision-making. The move will only further undermine China’s economic performance and worldwide diplomatic standing. Moreover, Beijing is now stuck paying the bills for a stumbling Russia and will likely see a poor return on that investment.

It reminds me of the old joke that the only country that can contain China is China.

Russia is frantically seeking to look like it has friends, and China is taking economic advantage.

EA: I don’t know about that. You’re right that China increasingly appears to have written off the United States, which is not a surprise given that America has pivoted pretty sharply towards a policy of overt containment of China in the last five years or so. But I don’t think Beijing has written off Europe yet, and it certainly is trying to walk a fine line on the war in Ukraine, supporting Moscow economically but presenting a “peace plan” that would suggest to other countries it is looking for mediation opportunities.

And China got at least one big win out of the summit: The Russians announced that they’re increasing the use of the yuan as a reserve currency , and conducting more trade in it. Yuan now makes up a much higher proportion of Russian public and private reserves than before, with banks inside Russia facing penalties for holdings in dollars and euros. The Russians have even signaled they’d like to do more trade with Latin America and Asia in yuan, though that remains dependent on whether other states are willing to do so. But either way, this all highlights how far Russia’s economic prospects have fallen, and bolsters the relevance of China’s currency.

MK: Bolsters, yes, but from a low starting point. There are too many Chinese Communist Party (CCP) restrictions on the use of the yuan—such as closed capital accounts and a lack of currency convertibility—to make it a competitive reserve currency.

EA: For now, yes. But it’s a notable step that makes the yuan more important to another major global economy. It also brings the currency closer to the international oil trade, which has historically been the sole preserve of the dollar. It’s a baby step, but one that could yield bigger changes down the road. Not good changes!

MK: I am still skeptical. A successful reserve currency is based on trust, and most market actors won’t trust their wealth to a fickle dictator.

And you are right that Xi tried to present himself as a peacemaker, but it was clumsy. American and European leaders dismissed his peace proposal (that would essentially reward Putin for his aggression) out of hand. The contradictory plan calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries” and “territorial integrity,” but conveniently fails to mention Russia’s illegal occupation.

I also think all this focus on whether China will provide lethal aid is misplaced. China is already essentially providing lethal aid to Moscow. By providing Russia with an economic lifeline, it is enabling Russia to fund its war machine. Money is fungible. Beijing is also not using its power to stop North Korean weapons transfers . The CCP is basically already a co-belligerent on Putin’s side.

EA: China is also benefiting massively in purely economic terms from all this increased trade. And perhaps the most notable absent announcement from the summit was any news on pipelines for delivering gas from Russia to China. There was nothing on the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, for example. As Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins’  School of Advanced International Studies noted on Twitter , that’s probably because the Chinese are holding out for a better price, and the Russians have thrown away their negotiating leverage by effectively ending their gas trade with Europe for the foreseeable future.

Or to put it another way: Chinese support for Russia also looks a lot like China has Russia over a barrel. There are more summits coming in the next year—Putin will go to Beijing, Xi will return to Moscow—but the outcome is likely to look the same. Russia is frantically seeking to look like it has friends, and China is taking economic advantage. I’m not too worried about Chinese support for Russia. If this is the best that Russia can muster in support of its war in Ukraine, then it isn’t much.

MK: I am sure we will be coming back to this story. The Xi-Putin relationship is not going away any time soon.

In other news, this week marked the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War. There is now an overwhelming consensus that it was a mistake—and given that we now know that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein didn’t possess weapons of mass destruction, I agree with that. (For the record, I am not recanting. I was early in my graduate education when the war began and did not have a clear or informed opinion on the matter at the time.)

I do think the simple dismissal of the war as a big, dumb mistake, however, risks oversimplifying the lessons we learn from the episode. There were no good options for dealing with Iraq in March 2003. We do not know what the world would have looked like if Saddam had remained in power, but we know it would have been dangerous.

And I think among the biggest mistakes of the Iraq War was what happened after the invasion. There was never a clear strategy. A plan to schwack Saddam and get out quickly might have worked. A strategy to make Iraq the next Germany or Japan—send in a large force and stay forever—might have worked. But the half-in half-out, inconsistent approach after the invasion guaranteed failure.

Or was it just a big, dumb mistake?

EA: I don’t think “schwack” is a real word, Matt, though I appreciate you reminding us of George W. Bush and his propensity to invent new phrases .

And I can’t see how anyone could argue the Iraq War was anything other than a big, dumb mistake, although judging by the op-ed pages of America’s newspapers over the last week or two, there are a lot of folks out there still trying to retroactively justify their poor decisions about the war.

We don’t know what could have happened if other choices were made, it’s true. But scholars’ research shows that regime change only works in rare cases, under certain circumstances. And the factors that might allow regime change to produce democracy—things such as ethnic homogeneity or strong existing state institutions—were entirely lacking in Iraq. I have a hard time seeing any scenario in which the U.S. invasion of Iraq would have resulted in a more peaceful and well-governed Middle East.

And here’s the reality we do have: The invasion created a corrupt petrostate government in Iraq, empowered Iran, spread weapons all over the Middle East, and contributed to instability throughout the region.

It’s amazing to me the lengths that some will go to in order to avoid admitting that.

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MK: Well, even George W. Bush’s brother Jeb declared the war a mistake in the 2016 Republican presidential nominating contest. Those who have not come to that conclusion, however, are entitled to their opinion. This is geopolitics, not math. Different people weigh costs and benefits differently, and there were benefits to removing Saddam from power.

Speaking of GOP presidential elections, the 2024 campaign shows signs of heating up, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis hitting former President Donald Trump for hush money payments to a porn star and Trump insinuating that DeSantis might be a pedophile.

EA: I think my favorite thing about electoral politics is how cerebral and dignified it is. Don’t forget! We’re also waiting to find out if the former president is going to be arrested and indicted.

MK: But there are more elevated debates going on in our area of expertise. What do you make of the brouhaha over DeSantis’s statement that the war in Ukraine is a “territorial dispute” and not in the “vital interests” of the United States?

Let’s not forget the politics. Think tank experts do not need to win elections. DeSantis does.

EA: This is a really interesting dispute, which says a lot about the state of turmoil in the Republican Party on foreign policy. DeSantis’s remarks were inelegant for sure, particularly the territorial dispute bit, which really misrepresents the nature of the war in Ukraine. But his remarks were pretty sound otherwise, and solidly in line with where polling suggests the Republican base is on questions of foreign policy: skeptical on how much aid to give to Ukraine going forward, concerned about China, and angry about the lack of burden-sharing by European allies. Electorally, he’s saying the right things.

Despite this, and despite the fact DeSantis is probably the most obvious competitor to Trump, Republican—or former Republican—foreign policy hands lined up to criticize him. Many of these are the same people who believe that Trump is a potential autocrat and major threat to the United States, and yet they’re attacking DeSantis because he’s insufficiently hawkish?

MK: Well, the leaders of the Republican Party in Congress, such as Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, and other top Republican presidential candidates, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, have been criticizing the Biden administration for being too weak in Ukraine. I agree with them.

There has also been a lot of hope that DeSantis can reunite the various factions and lead the party back to victory next year. So, I fully understand why the Reaganite wing of the party was disappointed by DeSantis’s remarks.

At the same time, let’s not forget the politics. Think tank experts do not need to win elections. DeSantis does. His biggest competitor for the nomination is not Haley or Pence but Trump. By taking positions near Trump, he takes away potential lines of attack and cuts into Trump’s support. Moreover, his statement was only a few lines long. It still leaves him a lot of wiggle room once he is elected. In fact, he already clarified his Ukraine position in a more hawkish direction.

This is electoral politics, not grand strategy. Let’s cut the guy some slack.

EA: Yeah, Pence and Haley are both polling in the single digits right now, and some of the focus-group commentary on Pence is downright mean . They’re not real contenders.

I’m just surprised we agree on this. But I suspect we won’t agree on the broader issue. This controversy is clearly emblematic of a foreign policy shift among Republicans voters, which has not been embraced by some GOP elites. It won’t be a good debate if both sides fall back on cries of “isolationism” or “warmonger,” and it certainly won’t be a good debate if neoconservatives undermine other viable candidates and land Trump back in power.

My friend Dan Caldwell of the Center for Renewing America has an essay on the future of Republican foreign policy out this week, and I honestly can’t put it better than he does: “A debate about Republican foreign policy could be healthy for the party …. But such a debate would be fruitless if conservative candidates used it as an excuse to pine for a return to caricatures of the foreign policies of former U.S. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Trump.”

MK: It is not 1980 or 2016. Neither Reagan’s vision nor Trump’s works for 2025. I think what the party needs is some kind of Trump-Reagan.

EA: Or—and here’s a novel idea—why don’t we construct a foreign policy that’s suited for the 21st century, instead of relying on the ideas of folks who should have left the political scene long ago?

Emma Ashford is a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University, and the author of Oil, the State, and War. Twitter:  @EmmaMAshford

Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book, with Dan Negrea, is We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War . Twitter:  @matthewkroenig

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How a warrant for Putin puts new spin on Xi visit to Russia

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, gestures while speaking to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Sept. 16, 2022. China said Friday, March 17, 2023, President Xi will visit Russia from Monday, March 20, to Wednesday, March 22, 2023, in an apparent show of support for Russian President Putin amid sharpening east-west tensions over the conflict in Ukraine. (Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 15, 2022. China says President Xi will visit Russia from Monday, March 20, to Wednesday, March 22, 2023, in an apparent show of support for Russian President Putin amid sharpening east-west tensions over the conflict in Ukraine. (Alexandr Demyanchuk, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week highlighted China’s aspirations for a greater role on the world stage. But they also revealed the perils of global diplomacy: Hours after Friday’s announcement of the trip, an international arrest warrant was issued for Putin on war crimes charges, taking at least some wind out of the sails of China’s big reveal.

The flurry of developments — which followed China’s brokering of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations and its release of what it calls a “peace plan” for Ukraine — came as the Biden administration watches warily Beijing’s moves to assert itself more forcefully in international affairs.

U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday he believes the decision by the International Criminal Court in The Hague to charge Putin was “justified.” Speaking to reporters as he left the White House for his Delaware home, he said Putin “clearly committed war crimes.”

While the U.S. does not recognize the court, Biden said it “makes a very strong point” to call out the Russian leader for his actions in ordering the invasion of Ukraine.

Other U.S. officials privately expressed satisfaction that an international body had agreed with Washington’s assessment that Russia has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

Asked about the Xi-Putin meeting, Biden said, “Well, we’ll see when that meeting takes place.”

The Biden administration believes China’s desire to be seen as a broker for peace between Russia and Ukraine may be viewed more critically now that Putin is officially a war crime suspect, according to two U.S. officials. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the matter publicly, said the administration hopes the warrants will help mobilize heretofore neutral countries to weigh in on the conflict.

A look at the Xi-Putin meeting and how it may be affected by the warrant.

WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF XI MEETING WITH PUTIN?

The visit to Russia will be Xi’s first foreign trip since being elected to an unprecedented third term as China’s president. It comes as Beijing and Moscow have intensified ties in steps that began shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing during last year’s Winter Olympics at which they declared a “no limits” partnership.

Since then, China has repeatedly sided with Russia in blocking international action against Moscow for the Ukraine conflict and, U.S. officials say, is considering supplying Russia with weapons to support the war. But it has also tried to cast itself in a more neutral role, offering a peace plan that was essentially ignored.

The meeting in Moscow is likely to see the two sides recommit to their partnership, which both see as critical to countering what they consider undue and undeserved influence exerted by the U.S. and its Western allies.

WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICC ARREST WARRANT ISSUED FOR PUTIN?

In the immediate term, the ICC’s warrant for Putin and one of his aides is unlikely to have a major impact on the meeting or China’s position toward Russia. Neither China nor Russia — nor the United States or Ukraine — has ratified the ICC’s founding treaty. The U.S., beginning with the Clinton administration, has refused to join the court, fearing that its broad mandate could result in the prosecution of American troops or officials.

That means that none of the four countries formally recognizes the court’s jurisdiction or is bound by its orders, although Ukraine has consented to allowing some ICC probes of crimes on its territory and the U.S. has cooperated with ICC investigations.

In addition, it is highly unlikely that Putin would travel to a country that would be bound by obligations to the ICC. If he did, it is questionable whether that country would actually arrest him. There is precedent for those previously indicted, notably former Sudanese President Omar Bashir, to have visited ICC members without being detained.

However, the stain of the arrest warrant could well work against China and Russia in the court of public opinion and Putin’s international status may take a hit unless the charges are withdrawn or he is acquitted.

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON?

U.S. officials have not minced words when it comes to Xi’s planned visit to Moscow. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called Beijing’s push for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine a “ratification of Russian conquest” and warned that Russians could use a cease-fire to regroup their positions “so that they can restart attacks on Ukraine at a time of their choosing.”

“We do not believe that this is a step towards a just, durable peace,” he said. Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan this week called on Xi to also speak with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian leader has also expressed interest in talks with Xi.

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM KYIV?

Speaking before the ICC warrant was unveiled, Ukrainian analysts cautioned against falling into a potential trap ahead of the Xi-Putin meeting. “We need to be aware that such peace talks are a trap for Ukraine and its diplomatic corps,” said Yurii Poita, who heads the Asia section at the Kyiv-based New Geopolitics Research Network.

“Under such conditions, these peace talks won’t be directed toward peace,” said Nataliia Butyrska, a Ukrainian analyst on politics related to Eastern Asia. She said the visit reflects not so much China’s desire for peace but its desire to play a major role in whatever post-conflict settlement may be reached.

“China does not clearly distinguish between who is the aggressor and who is the victim. And when a country begins its peacekeeping activities or at least seeks to help the parties, not distinguishing this will affect objectivity,” Butyrska said. “From my perspective, China seeks to freeze the conflict.”

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW?

Even if China stops short of providing military assistance to Russia as the U.S. and its allies fear, Moscow sees Xi’s visit as a powerful signal of Chinese backing that challenges Western efforts to isolate Russia and deal crippling blows to its economy.

Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov noted that Putin and Xi have “very special friendly and trusting personal ties” and hailed Beijing’s peace plan. “We highly appreciate the restrained, well-balanced position of the Chinese leadership on this issue,” Ushakov said.

Observers say that despite China’s posturing as a mediator, its refusal to condemn the Russian action leaves no doubt about where Beijing’s sympathy lies.

“The Chinese peace plan is a fig leaf to push back against some Western criticism on support for Russia,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The optics that it creates is that China has a peace plan, both parties of war endorsed it and were ready to explore the opportunities and then it was killed by the hostile West.”

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM BEIJING?

Chinese officials have been boasting about their new-found clout in the international arena as their country’s foreign policy has become increasingly assertive under Xi.

In announcing the Xi visit, China’s foreign ministry said Beijing’s ties with Moscow are a significant world force. “As the world enters a new period of turbulence and change, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and an important power, the significance and influence of China-Russia relations go far beyond the bilateral scope,” it said.

It called the visit “a journey of friendship, further deepening mutual trust and understanding between China and Russia, and consolidating the political foundation and public opinion foundation of friendship between the two peoples for generations.”

Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Washington and Hanna Arhirova in Kyiv contributed to this report.

Xi Jinping’s Visit to Russia Isn’t Really About Bringing Peace to Ukraine

A fter Xi Jinping became China’s leader back in 2013, his inaugural overseas trip was to Russia, and his return to Moscow on Monday marks his ninth visit in total. Much has changed over the intervening decade—perhaps most significantly that Xi will be expected to shake hands with a suspected war criminal upon arrival, following the International Criminal Court’s issuance of an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin on Friday.

The charges, which Putin rejects and relate to the alleged forced deportation of Ukrainian children, were announced just hours before the Russian president visited Mariupol—his first trip to occupied Ukraine since the start of the war. Putin may well still have dust from the beleaguered city on his boots when he welcomes Xi, with the two leaders expected to sign “important documents” that will “deepen relations” and solidify economic cooperation, according to Kremlin officials.

Still, the overwhelming impression has been that Xi is heading to Russia with the aim of negotiating a settlement to the Ukraine conflict—a presumption bolstered by China’s remarkable brokering earlier this month of restored ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia , as well as by reports that Xi will also hold a virtual meeting later this week with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky , their first direct conversation since Russia invaded more than a year ago.

“My upcoming visit to Russia will be a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace,” Xi wrote in an article for the Kremlin-run Russian Gazette newspaper published Monday. Putin, meanwhile, wrote his own commentary in the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece the People’s Daily on Sunday that welcomed his “good old friend” Xi to make a “meaningful contribution to the settlement of the crisis.”

However, the likelihood that Xi can somehow persuade both Russia and Ukraine to agree to a truce remains remote . “A ceasefire in the current situation is very difficult—both sides think they can win, they cannot give up,” says Prof. Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing. “I don’t expect anything helpful to come out of this visit,” says Sean King, senior vice president of political risk firm Park Strategies.

In fact, it doesn’t look like Ukraine is Xi’s primary focus anyway. Of the more than 1,800 words Xi wrote in the Russian Gazette , “Ukraine” featured just three times in two adjacent paragraphs. He devotes much more space to eulogizing bilateral relations and that bilateral trade soared to $190 billion last year (while glossing over the fact that this was largely as a consequence of evading Western sanctions).

Xi’s focus, says Wang, will be to “manage spillover effects including the food crisis, humanitarian crisis, energy [supply disruptions] and global supply chain connectivity”—matters directly relevant to China’s interests, in other words.

Moreover, Xi will be less inclined to alienate Putin given Russian support is increasingly important geostrategically. Last week’s signing of an enhanced AUKUS security pact between the U.S., U.K., and Australia, which allows the latter to acquire and operate nuclear-powered submarines , has put Xi on the defensive in his own backyard. “AUKUS forces China and Russia to cooperate in a more strategic way,” says Wang.

Alexander Korolev, an expert in China-Russia relations at the University of New South Wales, says that Xi wants to consolidate his alignment with Putin because Russia is China’s only strategic partner that is a great power. “China will need Russia for its impending conflict with the U.S.,” he says. “Xi Jinping cares about China’s interests and problems in the Asia Pacific. He doesn’t care about Ukraine or the war there.”

“It just goes to show that autocrats stick together,” says King.

For Xi, there is also a clear propaganda element. His Russia Gazette article talks up his “new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind”— his pitch to replace existing U.S.-dominated global governance mechanisms with new “multipolar” relations.

As such, the Moscow trip is another opportunity to paint himself as a neutral party and the U.S. in particular as stoking the conflict. “To run the world’s affairs well,” writes Xi, “one must first and foremost run its own affairs well.” To hammer that point home, China also released on Monday its annual “ State of Democracy in the United States “ assessment—which, while breathtakingly hypocritical, does point out some undeniable flaws in American governance.

With the entire world—especially developing nations of the Global South—hostage to the inflation and instability wrought by the conflict, Xi will take every chance to paint the U.S. as an aggressor at least as guilty as Putin. And Western cynicism regarding any proposed Chinese attempts to negotiate peace is portrayed as self-serving. “The U.S. saw the Ukraine crisis as a lucrative opportunity,” says the report on the U.S. “Instead of taking any measures conducive to ending hostilities, the U.S. kept fueling the flames and made a huge fortune from the war business including the arms industry and the energy sector.”

Meanwhile, China’s proposals of compromise and dialogue—nebulous as they undoubtedly are—stand in stark contrast to American bickering about the type and quantity of deadly weaponry to dispatch to the frontline. “Increasingly, Western rhetoric about the Ukraine conflict is seen as shrill, increasingly prone to conspiracy theories and misinformation, and warmongering in itself,” writes Chris Devonshire-Ellis, chairman of business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates, in a briefing note . “The non-Western world increasingly sees this as a desire to continue the conflict—instigated by the West.”

Xi’s visit is a clear example of “balance of power politics 101,” says Korolev. “There is a growing understanding in Beijing that China and the United States are on a collision course. That is not going to change.”

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Xi Bristles at Criticism of China Over the War in Ukraine

Talks in Paris with President Macron produced a call for an “Olympics truce” this summer but no concrete progress on Beijing putting pressure on Russia.

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By Roger Cohen

Reporting from Paris

President Xi Jinping of China, on a two-day visit to France, spoke out firmly against criticism of his country for its close relationship with Russia during the war in Ukraine, saying that “we oppose the crisis being used to cast responsibility on a third country, sully its image and incite a new cold war.”

Flanked by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, with whom he held several rounds of talk on Monday, Mr. Xi stiffened as he defended China’s role, recalling it was “not at the origin of this crisis, nor a party to it, nor a participant.”

The bristling remark appeared aimed principally at the United States, which believes that China, aside from buying enormous amounts of Russian oil and gas, continues to aid Moscow’s war in Ukraine by providing satellite imagery to Russian forces along with jet fighter parts, microchips and other dual-use equipment.

Mr. Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, who attended a morning session of talks, pressured Mr. Xi to use his influence on Moscow to bring the war to an end. Mr. Xi will host President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Beijing later this month, but there was no suggestion — other than a general wish for peace — that he would ask his “no limits” ally to stop the war.

The talks in Paris took place as Mr. Putin again suggested he might be prepared to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine . Russia has specifically cited Mr. Macron’s taboo-breaking statement in February that the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine could not be ruled out as a reason for Moscow’s decision to hold military exercises to practice for the possible use of battlefield, or “tactical,” nuclear weapons.

Mr. Macron has said repeatedly that he stands by his position on the possible deployment of troops, remarks intended, he says, to create “strategic ambiguity.” He did not address the issue on Monday.

Addressing Mr. Xi, the French president said, “Without security for Ukraine there can be no security for Europe.” But he emphasized that France was not at war with Russia or its people and did not seek to overturn Mr. Putin’s regime. Mr. Macron added, with respect to the war, that France and China “must maintain a close dialogue”

Earlier in the day, Ms. von der Leyen said Beijing should “use all its influence on Russia to end its war of aggression against Ukraine.” Mr. Xi had played “an important role in de-escalating Russia’s irresponsible nuclear threats,” she added, expressing confidence that the Chinese leader would “continue to do so against the backdrop of ongoing nuclear threats by Russia.”

“More effort is needed to curtail delivery of dual-use goods to Russia that find their way to the battlefield,” said Ms. von der Leyen, who has been blunter in her criticism of China than Mr. Macron. “And given the existential nature of the threats stemming from this war for both Ukraine and Europe, this does affect E.U.-China relations.”

It is relatively unusual for a top European official to describe the war in Ukraine as an “existential threat” to the European continent. Doing so may reflect Mr. Putin’s renewed talk of the use of nuclear weapons.

The atmosphere between Mr. Xi and Mr. Macron was friendly and full of mutual congratulation at the fruits of the 60-year diplomatic relationship between the two countries and vows to build a better world together. At a separate French-Chinese business summit attended by top executives, Mr. Xi said, “Between our two countries there is no geopolitical tension nor any fundamental conflict.”

The two leaders called jointly for an “Olympics truce” — a pause in all fighting in all conflicts across the world for the duration of the Paris Olympics from July 26 to Aug. 11.

Mr. Macron noted the gastronomic passions shared by the two countries, and offered Mr. Xi a couple of bottles of Cognac.

China started an anti-dumping investigation this year targeting European brandy — French Cognacs for the most part — after the European Union began an investigation into fast-growing subsidized electric car imports from China. This could lead to the imposition of European tariffs this year. Mr. Macron, thanking Mr. Xi for his “openness” on the Cognac question, suggested that the threat of Chinese tariffs had been staved off for the time being.

Mr. Macron, who wants to build a sovereign “Europe power” beholden neither to the United States nor China and pursuing its own interests with the military and industrial strength to do so, was, however, less effusive about relations with China than during a visit to Beijing last year, when the two countries declared a “global strategic partnership.”

“There can be no long-term exchange without reciprocity,” Mr. Macron said at the business summit, adding that his goal was to “rebalance” trade between the two countries.

France has an almost $50 billion trade deficit with China; Europe’s deficit with China has tripled to close to $325 billion over the past five years. The level of French investments in China is three times as much as China’s investment in France.

“There is an opportunity for a balanced partnership between France and China,” Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister, said at the meeting with business executives. “We are right now far from that balance.”

A number of agreements between French and Chinese companies were announced, including several related to battery production, transportation and green energy. Mr. Macron called on Chinese companies to increase investments in France in the areas of electric batteries and vehicles, solar panels and computing, so long as the investments were made “in full respect of our sovereignty.”

Ms. von der Leyen also took a firm line on trade. Tensions are high between the 27-nation European Union and China because heavily subsidized Chinese manufacturing and weak domestic demand have led to a big export push from Beijing.

“These subsidized products — such as electric vehicles or, for example, steel — are flooding the European market,” Ms. von der Leyen said. “At the same time, China continues to massively support its manufacturing sector, and this is combined with domestic demand that is not increasing.”

“The world,” she declared, “cannot absorb China’s surplus production.”

The war in Ukraine has put great pressure on European economies — as has the consequent need to shift energy supplies after most of the continent stopped buying from Russia. Inflation has risen, and the fear that China could put companies out of business has risen along with it.

“Europe cannot accept market-distorting practices that could lead to deindustrialization here at home,” Ms. von der Leyen said, adding that “Europe will not waver from making tough decisions needed to protect its economy and security.”

Aurelien Breeden and Liz Alderman contributed reporting.

Roger Cohen is the Paris Bureau chief for The Times, covering France and beyond. He has reported on wars in Lebanon, Bosnia and Ukraine, and between Israel and Gaza, in more than four decades as a journalist. At The Times, he has been a correspondent, foreign editor and columnist. More about Roger Cohen

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Bumbling Biden forgets facts, mixes up Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in disastrous Time interview

P resident Biden forgot key facts about the economy, foreign policy and his time in public office during a sit-down interview with Time magazine last month — even mixing up Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Biden, 81, repeated a false claim that wage increases have outpaced inflation during his presidency, lowballed the amount of US foreign aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and overestimated both Japan’s defense spending and the population of Africa, according to a post-interview fact check by Time.

“Wage increases have exceeded what the cost of inflation, which you’re talking about as the prices that were pre-COVID prices,” Biden told the magazine’s staff writers in the May 28 interview.

Real average hourly earnings, seasonally adjusted, have increased 0.5% from April 2023 to April 2024, according to the latest  US Bureau of Labor Statistics report , but median weekly wages  have not kept up with inflation  since Biden took office in January 2021.

Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 — a surge Biden has attempted to blame on his predecessor — the highest increase seen since the early 1980s.

Asked immediately after whether his newly announced tariffs on Chinese goods would hike consumer prices, Biden confused the names of the leaders of America’s two great foreign adversaries .

“No, because here’s the deal. There’s a difference. I made it clear to Putin from the very beginning that — I’m not, we’re not engaging in,” Biden answered before trailing off briefly.

“For example, Trump wants a 10% tariff on everything. That will raise the price of everything in America,” he said.

An editor’s note from Time reads: “Biden appeared to mean Xi here, not Putin.”

Turning to the war in Ukraine, Biden said at another point, “We spent a lot of money in Ukraine, but Europe has spent more money than the United States has, collectively,” adding moments later that he “spent a month in Ukraine when I was a senator and vice president.”

The US has provided more money — about $68 billion more — than the European Union since Putin’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine.

The EU’s total spending for Kyiv’s defense and humanitarian assistance is roughly $107 billion , the same as the amount of US aid for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government.

The Post was also unable to find contemporaneous reports that Biden visited Ukraine when serving as a US senator from Delaware between 1973 and 2009, during which he chaired the powerful Foreign Relations Committee for 12 years.

“Did you ever think if I told you that Japan would be devoting 3% of its GDP to defense and make a rapprochement at Camp David with South Korea as an overwhelming threat that exists to North Korea as well as to Europe?” the president asked his interviewers rhetorically during another question on US Indo-Pacific strategy.

According to World Bank data, Japan has spent around 1% of its GDP on defense since 1960.

After being quizzed about voters’ concerns over him being the oldest-ever president , Biden pointed to the trillions of dollars in federal spending he signed into law, which former officials from the Obama White House have said contributed to skyrocketing inflation along with his unprecedented student loan cancellations .

“I can do it better than anybody you know,” he answered when asked whether he was ready to serve a second term that will conclude when he turns 86 years old. “Watch me. Look, name me a president that’s gotten as much done as I’ve gotten done in my first three and a half years.”

“You’re looking at me, I can take you too,” he also told one of the Time journalists, seemingly joking about getting into a brawl.

“I remember when I was heading to Taiwan, excuse me, to South Korea, to reclaim the chips industry that we had gotten $865 billion in private-sector investment, private-sector investments since I’ve been in. Name me a president who’s done that,” Biden went on, inaccurately conflating his trip to the Asian nation in 2022 with the investment announcement last month.

At yet another point, he suggested the population in Africa would grow to “a billion people” in the coming years, though it currently sits at around 1.4 billion.

Biden at other moments was unable to recall when he had last spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Daily Caller first reported , or know the whereabouts of one of his administration’s chief negotiators to bring back American hostages from Gaza, CIA Director William Burns.

Just 77 hostages are still being held by Hamas , the Israeli government announced Tuesday, including five US citizens.

“We believe there are those that are still alive. I met with all the families. But we don’t have final proof on exactly who’s alive and who’s not alive,” Biden said.

“And by the way, I’ve been calling for — we should have a cease-fire, period. And to get those hostages,” he added, before asking for Burns’ whereabouts.

“And so that’s why we’re pushing hard for the — and we’re — Is our intelligence chief in? Where is he now?”

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine says China is in Russia's pocket. It may be the other way around.

• A tussle over a new gas-pipeline deal has exposed the power imbalance between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. 
• Russia's Putin is dependent on the pipeline amid international sanctions. 
• But China has also staked a lot on Russia winning in Ukraine.

At the Shangri-La conference in Singapore on Sunday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused China of doing Russia's bidding in seeking to disrupt a peace conference scheduled for June.

"Regrettably, this is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin," Zelenskyy said , referring to Russia's president.

Zelenskyy's remarks highlight the increasing interdependence between Russia and China, which has a vastly bigger economy, in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But the relationship has been lopsided. Rather than simply doing Putin's bidding, China's leader, Xi Jinping, has so far largely had Russia in his hands.

In the wake of its Ukraine invasion, Russia has been increasingly isolated on the world stage, but China has stepped in, providing vital economic and diplomatic support. The US says China has also been providing military support in the form of dual-use components for Russia's military industry.

A Financial Times report on Monday included important new details about the underlying power dynamic of the relationship, saying the reason a massive new gas-pipeline deal between Russia and China had stalled was that China was driving a hard bargain.

Related stories

Sources told the FT that China had asked to get the gas at the same heavily subsidized rates as in Russia and would commit to buying only a small fraction of the pipeline's annual output of 50 billion cubic meters.

It's bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the Russian gas industry having been badly impacted by sanctions and increasingly dependent on exports to non-Western countries, notably China.

China's leader, Xi, has exploited the power imbalance in the China-Russia relationship. He's brokered influence in the Central Asian Republics , which have traditionally been part of Russia's sphere of influence, and found a huge new market in Russia for Chinese exports such as vehicles.

But Xi is also increasingly dependent on his wager of a Russian victory in Ukraine coming good.

And he's still keen to help Russia's leader, with the FT reporting that boycotting the peace conference was one of the requests Putin made to Xi when the leaders met in May.

China is undergoing a serious economic downturn, and its support for Russia is imperiling its ties with wealthy Western economies, which its major businesses depend upon.

If Xi comes out of the Ukraine war with little to show, then his credibility and bid to assert China as the world's major power will be seriously dented.

And that's likely enough to ensure China will continue to do Russia favors.

Watch: China's Xi Jinping praises Vladimir Putin during visit to Russia

• Main content

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Vladimir Putin repeats warning he could send weapons to adversaries of the West

Speaking at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin also says he does not see the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons as set out in Russia's nuclear doctrine - but adds he could not rule out a change to it.

Friday 7 June 2024 17:15, UK

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• Russia economically strong despite 'illegitimate sanctions'
• Ukraine has right to strike targets in Russia - NATO chief
• Russian vessels to make port in Cuba in 'hopes of invoking memory of missile crisis'
• Biden to discuss $225m package with Zelenskyy in France
• Ivor Bennett:  Why is Lavrov in Africa?
• Big picture:  Everything you need to know about the war right now
• Your questions answered: Are there any signs of an underground resistance in Russia?

Thank you for reading.

We will be back soon with more updates from the war in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin has said he does not see the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons as set out in Russia's nuclear doctrine - but added he could not rule out a change to the doctrine.

"We have a nuclear doctrine which states that the use of nuclear arms is possible in an exceptional case, when the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country is threatened," he told the St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

"But the doctrine can be changed.

"The same applies to nuclear tests. We will carry out tests if needed, but so far there is no such need."

Russia could send weapons to adversaries of the West, Vladimir Putin has warned for a second time.

The Russian president repeated the warning from earlier this week during the St Petersburg Economic Forum.

He did not say what countries or entities he was referring to, and he stressed that Moscow is not doing it currently.

"If they supply (weapons) to the combat zone and call for using these weapons against our territory, why don't we have the right to do the same?" he told the crowds. 

"But I'm not ready to say that we will be doing it tomorrow, either."

On Wednesday, Putin told international journalists that Russia could provide long-range weapons to others to strike Western targets in response to NATO allies allowing Ukraine to use their arms to attack Russian territory.

He also reaffirmed Moscow's readiness to use nuclear weapons if it sees a threat to its sovereignty.

Joe Biden has apologised to Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the recent delay in approving new US aid for Ukraine.

Last month, following months of political disagreements, the Senate passed $95bn (£76.2bn) in war aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan .

"I apologise for those weeks of not knowing," the US president said.

"Some of our very conservative members [of Congress] were holding it up. 

"But we got it done, finally. We're still in - completely, totally." 

The Ukrainian president thanked his counterpart for American assistance.  

"It's very important that you stay with us," he said. 

"It's very important that in this unity, the United States of America, all American people stay with Ukraine, like it was during World War Two - how the United States helped to save human lives, to save Europe." 

The two men were speaking in Paris, the day after D-Day commemorations in Normandy.

Russia needs to boost its use of non-Western currencies, Vladimir Putin said as he addressed the St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

He also said his country needs to reduce imports while calling for a major expansion of its domestic financial markets.

Trade with Asia is soaring, he told delegates, adding that almost two fifths of Russian external trade is now in roubles.

The share conducted in US dollars, euros and other Western currencies has declined.

Russia will try to boost the share of settlements conducted in the currencies of BRICS countries - which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Mr Putin said.

"Last year, the share of payments for Russian exports in the so–called 'toxic' currencies of unfriendly states halved, while the share of the rouble in export and import transactions is growing - it is approaching 40% today," the president said.

Russia has referred to nations that imposed sanctions on it as "unfriendly".

 The session begins with an address by the Russian president. 

Vladimir Putin says there is a race among world powers to establish sovereignty. 

He speaks of the need for countries to both establish partnerships and also to look internally to tackle challenges presented by the current global economic landscape. 

Despite all the "obstacles and illegitimate sanctions", Russia remains one of the world's economic leaders, he says. 

He adds that "friendly countries" - those that have not joined sanctions against Moscow - account for three quarters of Russia's mutual trade turnover, and praises them for that. 

Countries including India and China have strengthened economic ties since Mr Putin launched his war in Ukraine. 

Vladimir Putin has taken to the stage in St Petersburg to address the International Economic Forum there.

He's joined by Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwais and Bolivian President Luis Alberto Arce Catacora. 

Chairing the session is Sergey Karaganov - a Russian political scientist. 

We'll bring you any key lines here in this live blog. 

A T-shirt is on sale at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum printed with a phrase attributed to Vladimir Putin, Sky News has discovered. 

"If a fight is inevitable, throw the first punch," it says.

The Russian president reportedly said it in 2015.

He apparently explained that it was something he had learned while growing up on the streets of Leningrad - a former name of St Petersburg. 

The Russian defence ministry has accused Ukraine of injuring 20 people, including children, in a missile attack on the Russian-controlled eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk, using US-supplied ATACMS missiles.

Four of five missiles were shot down by air defence systems, the ministry said in a statement.

However, one of the missiles damaged two residential apartment blocks, it added, claiming it was deliberate.

Sky News is unable to verify the allegations.

There has been no immediate comment from Ukraine. 

The European Commission supports starting EU accession talks with Ukraine, the country's prime minister has said.

Denys Shmyhal said the commission had confirmed in a report that Kyiv had fulfilled the remaining steps required to start negotiations. 

"Now we expect our European partners to take the next step - to start negotiations on European Union membership this month," Mr Shmyhal said on Telegram. 

Earlier (7.43am post) we reported that the commission was reportedly ready to recommend that accession talks get underway.

It is part of an attempt to signal support for Kyiv before Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the EU next month, the Financial Times reported.

The EU announced earlier this year that it was sending an additional £42bn in aid to Ukraine - but only after  weeks of resistance from Hungary , which reportedly has concerns about minority rights in Ukraine. 

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