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The Woman Steering Russia’s War Economy

Elvira Nabiullina got another five-year term as head of Russia’s central bank after quelling the initial market panic over the invasion of Ukraine.

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By Eshe Nelson

• May 9, 2022

For the second time in less than a decade, Elvira Nabiullina is steering Russia’s economy through treacherous waters.

In 2014, facing a collapsing ruble and soaring inflation after barely a year as head of the Central Bank of Russia, Ms. Nabiullina forced the institution into the modern era of economic policymaking by sharply raising interest rates. The politically risky move slowed the economy, tamed soaring prices and won her an international reputation as a tough decision maker.

In the world of central bankers, among technocrats tasked with keeping prices under control and financial systems stable, Ms. Nabiullina became a rising star for using orthodox policies to manage an unruly economy often tethered to the price of oil. In 2015, she was named Central Bank Governor of the Year by Euromoney magazine. Three years later, Christine Lagarde, then the head of the International Monetary Fund, effused that Ms. Nabiullina could make “central banking sing.”

Now it falls to Ms. Nabiullina to steer Russia’s economy through a deep recession, and to keep its financial system, cut off from much of the rest of the world, intact. The challenge follows years she spent strengthening Russia’s financial defenses against the kind of powerful sanctions that have been wielded in response to President Vladimir V. Putin’s geopolitical aggression.

She has guided the extraordinary rebound of Russia’s currency , which lost a quarter of its value within days of the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The central bank took aggressive measures to stop large sums of money from leaving the country, arresting a panic in markets and halting a potential run on the banking system.

In late April, Russia’s Parliament confirmed Ms. Nabiullina, 58, for five more years as chairwoman after Mr. Putin nominated her to serve a third term.

“She’s an important beacon of stability for Russia’s financial system ,” said Elina Ribakova, the deputy chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, an industry group in Washington. “Her reappointment has symbolic value.”

Prescribing a tough remedy

In her last crisis, she turned a catastrophe into an opportunity. In 2014, Russia was rocked by twin economic shocks: a collapse in oil prices — caused by a jump in U.S. production and the refusal of Saudi Arabia to cut production, denting Russia’s oil revenue — and economic sanctions imposed after Russia annexed Crimea.

The ruble plummeted. Ms. Nabiullina abandoned traditional policies — such as spending vast amounts of foreign currency reserves to support the exchange rate — and turned the bank’s focus to managing inflation. She raised interest rates to 17 percent, and they stayed relatively high for years.

It was a painful readjustment, and the economy shrank for a year and a half. But by mid-2017, she had managed something that had seemed far-fetched just a few years earlier: The inflation rate fell below 4 percent, the lowest in the country’s post-Soviet era.

“She’s been the very model of a modern central banker, ” said Richard Portes, a professor of economics at London Business School who has shared panel stages with Ms. Nabiullina at conferences.

“She was doing what she had to do,” he said, even when it was politically difficult. “If you want a demonstration of the alternative,” Mr. Portes added, “you need look only at Turkey,” where years of political interference in the central bank have allowed inflation to run out of control, reaching 70 percent this month .

Under Ms. Nabiullina’s direction, the central bank kept up its modernizing efforts. It improved its communication by scheduling key policy decisions, providing guidance about policy, meeting with analysts and submitting to interviews with reporters. The Central Bank of Russia came to be regarded as the key economic brain of the country, attracting respected economists from the private sector.

At its annual conference in St. Petersburg, the central bank drew economists from around the world, and Ms. Nabiullina attended international gatherings, including the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole in Wyoming and regular meetings for central bankers held by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

She has been described as personable, focused, always well-prepared, an advocate of market forces (despite her Soviet-era economics education) and a fan of history and opera. Born in Ufa, a city more than 700 miles east of Moscow known for heavy industry, she studied at Moscow State University, one of the country’s most prestigious schools, and is married to a fellow economist.

Cleaning up the banks

Besides her record on monetary policy, Ms. Nabiullina has drawn praise for pursuing a thorough cleanup of the banking industry. In her first five years at the bank, she revoked about 400 banking licenses — essentially closing a third of Russia’s banks — in an effort to cull weak institutions that were making what she termed “dubious transactions.”

It was considered a brave crusade: In 2006, a central bank official who had started a vigorous campaign to close banks suspected of money laundering was assassinated .

“Fighting corruption in the banking sector is a job for very courageous people,” said Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist who left the country in 2013 and is now a professor at Sciences Po in Paris. He called her program flawed, though, because it was largely limited to private banks. This created a moral hazard problem that left state-owned banks feeling comfortable taking on lots of risk with the protection of the government, he said.

Ms. Nabiullina’s integrity has never been questioned, added Mr. Guriev, who said he had known her for 15 years. “She’s never been suspected of any corruption.”

Building a fortress

Ms. Nabiullina has been a high-ranking official in Mr. Putin’s regime for two decades. She was his chief economic adviser for little more than a year before she was made chair of the central bank in June 2013, having already served as minister for economic development while Mr. Putin was prime minister.

“She’s well-trusted in the government and by the president,” said Sofya Donets, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow who worked at the central bank from 2007 to 2019. In recent years, it was quite evident that all kinds of policy questions in the financial sphere were delegated to the central bank, she added.

This trust was built up while Ms. Nabiullina was buttressing Russia’s economy against Western sanctions, especially from the long reach of American penalties. In 2014, the United States cut off many major Russian companies from its capital markets. But these companies had large amounts of foreign currency debt, raising alarms over how they would service their debts.

Ms. Nabiullina set about squeezing as many U.S. dollars from the economy as possible, so that companies and banks would be less vulnerable if Washington further restricted access to the country’s use of dollars.

She also shifted the bank’s reserves, which grew to be worth more than $600 billion, toward gold, the euro and the Chinese renminbi. Over her tenure, the share of dollars in the reserves fell to about 11 percent, from more than 40 percent, Ms. Nabiullina told Parliament last month. Even after sanctions froze the bank’s overseas reserves, the country has “sufficient” reserves in gold and renminbi, she told lawmakers.

Other protections against sanctions included an alternative to SWIFT, the global banking messaging system, developed in recent years. And the bank changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so even the exit of Visa and Mastercard would have minimal effect.

In March, Bloomberg News and The Wall Street Journal , citing unidentified sources, reported that Ms. Nabiullina had tried to resign after the Ukraine invasion, and had been rebuffed by Mr. Putin. The central bank rejected those reports.

Last month, the Canadian government placed her under sanctions for being a “close associate of the Russian regime.”

Mr. Guriev, who has not been in recent contact with Ms. Nabiullina, said he thought she might be staying in her role because she could convince herself that if she stepped down, inflation would get out of control and ordinary Russians would be hurt more severely.

“However, I think that she is actually propping up Putin’s war economy,” he added. “She is actually doing something that she didn’t sign up for.”

A war economy

After Ms. Nabiullina spent nearly a decade building a reputation for subduing inflation and bringing traditional monetary policy to Russia, the Western financial penalties imposed after the Ukraine invasion quickly forced her to abandon her preferred policies. She more than doubled the interest rate, to 20 percent; used capital controls to severely restrict the flow of money out of the country; shut down stock trading on the Moscow Exchange; and loosened regulations on banks so lending didn’t seize up.

These measures stopped the initial panic and helped the ruble rebound, but the capital controls have only been partly lifted.

Now Russia is entering into a steep recession with a closed economy. On April 29, the bank lowered the interest rate to 14 percent , a sign it was shifting from quelling a financial tornado to trying to minimize the prolonged impact of sanctions on households and businesses as inflation speeds up and companies are forced to reinvent their supply chains without imported goods.

Inflation has climbed steeply, and could reach an annual rate of 23 percent this year, the central bank forecast. The overall economy, it said, could shrink as much as 10 percent.

“We are in a zone of enormous uncertainty,” Ms. Nabiullina said.

Liz Alderman contributed reporting.

Eshe Nelson is a reporter in London, where she writes about companies, the British economy and finance. More about Eshe Nelson

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Stocks retreat, Treasuries flail as US rate cut hopes wither

Global stocks pulled back from an all-time high on Friday after surprisingly strong U.S. monthly jobs data dimmed hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon follow euro zone and Canadian interest rate cuts, causing Treasury yields to shoot higher.

Rothschild & Co. Has Office in Russia, Contrary to Conspiracy Claim on Social Media

By Saranac Hale Spencer

Posted on March 8, 2022

Rothschild & Co. has an office in Moscow and has been operating in Russia since the mid-1990s. Yet posts on social media falsely claim that Russia has barred the Rothschild banking family from doing business in the country. The claim is an adaptation of an old conspiracy theory about the family.

A longstanding antisemitic conspiracy theory about the Rothschilds , a European banking family prominent since the 19th century, has been adapted to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In a video that’s been viewed on Facebook more than 200,000 times and shared on other platforms , a man seated in his car claims to explain why the U.S. is “trying to push a war with Ukraine against Russia.”

“It’s very, very simple,” he says. “Russia stands against the progression of the New World Order. Russia is the only country that does not have a centralized bank that is run by the Rothschild Luciferian family.”

The man making the claim is Richard Railey , an Atlanta-based graphic designer who contributes to a right-wing website called Citizen First News . Social media pages for CFN have also shared Rothschild conspiracy theories in the past.

Railey’s claim is also undercut by facts.

Rothschild & Co. , one of the banks that retains the Rothschild family name, has an office in Moscow and has been operating in Russia since the mid-1990s, according to a search of financial news reports on LexisNexis.

The office is part of the company’s “global advisory” division, which provides advice on mergers and acquisitions and financing, according to the company .

The description of its services specifically in Russia, which was on the Rothschild & Co. website as recently as Feb. 25 , said: “Global Advisory has had an on-the-ground presence in Russia for over a decade. We provide impartial, expert advisory and execution services to large and mid-sized corporations, private equity, families and entrepreneurs. Our Moscow team offers local clients the full range of our advisory services and holds an in-depth understanding of local and regional dynamics, and unparalleled high-level and government access supported by our senior advisers.”

We reached out to Rothschild & Co. for more details about its business in Russia, but we didn’t get a response.

For comparison, though, Rothschild & Co.’s presence in Russia appears to be similar to its footprint in both Canada and India , where it has one “global advisory” office in each country, according to its website.

As for Railey’s claim that Russia doesn’t have a “centralized bank” run by the Rothschild family, that’s true. Like other countries’ central banks , Russia’s central bank is an independent institution charged with setting monetary policy for the country.

While Railey’s video has gotten a lot of attention on social media, he isn’t the only one who has made this kind of claim. Caroline Klug, who runs an organization that books religious public speakers, posted a similar claim on one of her Facebook pages.

On Feb. 28, Klug posted a flurry of comments about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including one that referred to Russian troops advancing toward Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, saying, “I feel inclined to pray for them for success in taking the capital.”

“Another interesting piece of the puzzle,” she wrote on Facebook the same day. “‘Russian president Vladimir Putin took yet another decision for his country. ‘Under any circumstances’, the Rothschild family is banned from entering Russian territory.'”

Klug’s post linked to a 2016 story on a website called CS Globe — the CS stands for “conspiracy syndrome,” according to the site’s Facebook page and merchandise it sells.

The headline on that story claimed, “Putin Has Banned Rothschild And His New World Order Banking Cartel Family From Entering Russian Territory.”

But, as we said, a Rothschild business has been operating in Russia since the mid-1990s. It’s also worth noting that about six months before the CS Globe story was posted, Reuters reported that the company’s office in Moscow was expanding, in contrast to the trend at the time of Western banks scaling back in the area.

We asked CS Globe to provide support for its claim, but we didn’t hear back. We also reached out to Railey  on Facebook for comment, but we didn’t hear back from him, either.

So, the claims that are circulating about Rothschild operations in Russia appear to be based on the same old conspiracy theories that have beset the family for years.

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org is one of several organizations  working with Facebook  to debunk misinformation shared on social media. Our previous stories can be found  here . Facebook has  no control  over our editorial content.

Salmons, Paul. “ Debunking the Rothschild conspiracy .” Paulsalmons.associates. 12 Feb 2022.

Hudson, Myles. “ Where Do Anti-Semitic Conspiracy Theories About the Rothschild Family Come From? ” Britannica. Accessed 7 Mar 2022.

Bouvier, Jean. “ Rothschild family .” Britannica. Updated 17 Sep 2020.

Rothschild and Co. Moscow office . Accessed 8 Mar 2022.

Rothschild and Co. “ Introducing Rothschild & Co’s Global Advisory business .” YouTube.com. 29 Jan 2019.

Rothschild and Co. “ Our services in Russia and the CIS .” 4 Mar 2021.

Rothschild and Co. “ Our services in India .” Accessed 7 Mar 2022.

Council on Foreign Relations. “ What Is a Central Bank and What Does It Do for You? ” World101.cfr.org. Accessed 7 Mar 2022.

Bank of Russia. “ Legal Status and Functions .” cbr.ru. Updated 23 Nov 2021.

Sonshine International LLC. Corporate records . Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions. Organized 11 Mar 2020.

“ Putin Has Banned Rothschild And His New World Order Banking Cartel Family From Entering Russian Territory .” csglobe.com. 21 Sep 2016.

Golubkova, Katya and Oksana Kobzeva. “ Rothschild, bucking trend, contemplates new hires in Russia .” Reuters. 16 Mar 2016.

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Russian Central Bank Chief Calls for 'Open Economy'

R ussia's central bank chief on Thursday called for Russia to be an "open economy" despite the barrage of Western sanctions and trading restrictions it has faced over the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina was speaking at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russia's premier business and investment event that used to attract leading Western businesspeople, investors and officials to President Vladimir Putin's hometown.

But since the February 2022 invasion, the forum's lineup has reflected Moscow's pivot toward Asia and Africa amid its diplomatic and economic isolation from Ukraine's Western allies.

At a panel discussion on Thursday, Nabiullina said Russia must prioritize "ensuring the openness of our economy."

"Despite the sanctions, we should be ready to integrate our economy" into the world economy, she added.

Sanctions have largely carved Russia out from the international financial system and killed off its former lucrative energy partnerships with the West. Scores of Western companies have also left Russia since the February 2022 invasion.

Speaking alongside Nabiullina, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov offered a different message, arguing that Russia needs to boost its "financial sovereignty."

"We will work on this in the coming years," Siluanov said.

Nabiullina said Russia needs to develop its capital markets and warned that planned tax increases must not be implemented in a way that discourages investment.

Russian Foreign Minister Visits Guinea on Africa Influence Tour

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived on Monday in Guinea, his ministry said , marking his first trip to the West African country since 2013. 

Moscow, which has seen its relations with the West plummet since invading Ukraine in February 2022, has in recent years sought to boost its influence in Africa.

Russia's Foreign Ministry announced Monday's visit on Telegram with a photo of Lavrov at Conakry airport but did not provide further details on the trip.

The state-run TASS news agency reported that  Guinea would be part of a larger tour of African countries but did not specify what other nations on the continent Lavrov plannet to visit. 

Russian media outlets reported that the foreign minister may also travel to Chad and Burkina Faso during the tour.

In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited African leaders to a summit in St. Petersburg where he said they agreed to promote a multipolar world order and to fight neocolonialism.

Putin hailed the "commitment of all our states to the formation of a just and democratic multipolar world order" during a statement to the media following the summit.

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European Central Bank cuts interest rates for the first time since 2019

The European Central Bank on Thursday confirmed a widely anticipated reduction in interest rates at its meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, despite  lingering inflationary pressures  in the 20-nation euro zone.

It takes the central bank’s key rate to 3.75%, down from a record 4% where it has been since September 2023.

″ Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady,” the ECB Governing Council said in a statement.

In updated macroeconomic projections that will be closely analyzed by investors, ECB staff raised their annual average headline inflation outlook for 2024 to 2.5% from 2.3% previously.

It likewise lifted its 2025 forecast to 2.2% from 2%. The 2026 projection remained at 1.9%.

Money markets had fully priced in the 25 basis point move lower at the June gathering. It is the first cut since September 2019, when the deposit facility was in negative territory.

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Markets have only fully priced one further reduction this year, but economists polled by Reuters last week forecast two more cuts taking place over the period.

Though the ECB began hiking interest rates later, a June cut would put it ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve on its march lower, as the world’s largest central bank remains stymied by the  rate of U.S. inflation . The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, nevertheless said in her last news conference that ECB officials are “data-dependent, not Fed-dependent.”

Canada on Wednesday became the  first G7 nation to cut interest rates  in the current cycle, while  Sweden  and  Switzerland ’s central banks already announced their own rate reductions this year.

Jenni Reid is a general news reporter for CNBC International.

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• 170 from Greater Lexington now on leadership visit to Salt Lake City

LEXINGTON, Ky. —  Commerce Lexington’s annual Leadership Visit intercity trip presented by Central Bank & Trust Co has taken a delegation of about 170 Central Kentucky business, education, government and nonprofit leaders to Salt Lake City, Utah. The intercity visits not only enable the study of best practices from benchmark cities across the country but are responsible for many programs, initiatives, events and projects occurring in Central Kentucky today.

  One of the longest-running and largest intercity visits of its kind among chambers of commerce and economic development groups, the Leadership Visits have been responsible for the creation of many great programs and initiatives right here in Central Kentucky, including things like the popular Thursday Night Live, the EMERGE conference for support new local leaders, Commerce Lexington’s Minority Business Development program and Access Loan small business financing initiative, the recent Courageous Conversations movement, and more.

“There will be a lot for us to learn during this trip — from Salt Lake City’s thriving tech industry to its exceptional quality of life and efforts in the talent attraction space. It is also home to the Huntsman Cancer Institute, a nationally recognized cancer hospital and research center and benchmark institute for the UK Markey Cancer Center,” Commerce Lexington Board Chair Steve Byars said. “I’m also excited to see how the entrepreneurial ecosystem helps commercialize intellectual property generated at the University of Utah.”

The delegation kicked off the trip at The Gallivan Center to hear from Salt Lake City community leaders Natalie Gochnour (Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at University of Utah), Sui Lang Panoke (Rethink International), and Dee Brewer (Salt Lake Downtown Alliance). Day two today features panel discussions on the city’s tech industry and health care, as well as a presentation on air service – one of the key drivers of business recruitment. The final day Friday will include a discussion with Salt Lake City Chamber President and CEO Derek Miller, followed by a moderated session to help the group reflect on their experience during the trip.

In addition to the sessions, participants will also have opportunities to experience Salt Lake City through a variety of elective tours featuring the downtown area, The Blocks Art District, the Aster Development, Temple Square, and the Huntsman Cancer Institute, as well as recreational activities such as bike and hiking tours, and a visit to Olympic Park.

Those who are not able to travel with the group can be part of the ongoing conversation and experience what others are seeing and doing in Salt Lake City from right here in Lexington through social media using the hashtag #SLC2024. For regular updates during the trip, follow facebook.com/CommerceLexington and instagram.com/CommerceLex . Find trip materials, an agenda and other information posted at www.commercelexington.com/slcparticipant.html .

Commerce Lexington (Greater Lexington KY Chamber of Commerce) is a nearly 2,000 member-driven organization that seeks to promote economic development, job creation, and overall business growth in Lexington, Kentucky, and its neighboring communities, while strengthening its existing businesses through its many programs and services. Commerce Lexington Inc.’s ECONOMIC FOCUS centers on promoting entrepreneurial start-ups, business expansion and retention, and new job creation; workforce development; connecting people and businesses; advocacy; community, minority, and small business development; and the cultivation of local and regional leadership.  www.commercelexington.com

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NEWS... BUT NOT AS YOU KNOW IT

Map shows where the warmest place in UK could be this bank holiday

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The UK will finally be enjoying some sunnier weather this Bank Holiday weekend after days of thunderstorms and rain.

After days of wet weather and three yellow weather warnings issued, Brits can look forward to warm and bright weather as we approach the summer months.

But there will still be some periods of rain, particularly in the north of England.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Mark Sidaway said: ‘The Bank Holiday weekend will see some sunny spells and it will feel quite pleasant in the sunshine for many on Saturday in particular.

‘Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday will likely see a return to sunshine and showers. Low pressure to the west is likely to push fronts into the UK on Sunday, these tending to break up and turn more showery in nature as they do so.

‘We are likely to see some heavy, possibly thundery showers on both days, but there should still be some dry spells in between, and in any sunshine it will feel pleasantly warm.’

But this may not last into June, with the Met Office ’s long-range forecast making for a disappointing read if you are hoping for more heat and sun.

The forecast reads: ‘Relatively weak signals for conditions to be markedly different from climatology through to the middle of June.

‘That said, both temperatures and rainfall are more-likely to be a little above average overall, with further rain or showers, possibly heavy/thundery at times, and possibly slightly more likely in the southern half of the UK, but also some spells of warm sunshine.’

Longer term forecasts only look at the UK as a whole, rather than providing more detail for specific areas.

This is due to the ‘chaotic nature of the atmosphere’ which can suddenly see small weather events over the Atlantic causing major issues in the UK days later.

The weather over the last month has been a mixed bag to say the least, with Brits seeing the hottest day of the year so far as well as yellow weather warnings for rain.

Amber and red flood alerts were issued for  London , southeast and southwest England, east and northeast, and the Midlands.

Even the aurora borealis made an appearance across the UK for the first time in 20 years.

The striking ribbons of pink and green light appeared thanks to an ‘extreme’ geomagnetic  storm .

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It may be the last time they are visible at least for the next few weeks, as the Met Office says ‘no significant enhancements to the auroral oval are likely in the coming days’.

But the sunspot cluster, which hurled gas and energy towards the Earth, will rotate to us in a fortnight.

If the cluster is large and complex enough, it will generate more explosions which creates the aurora borealis as it hits the Earth’s magnetic field.

MORE : ‘We walked the Jurassic Coast cliffs during a torrential thunderstorm, but it was worth every soggy mile’

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MORE : UK absolutely saturated yet again after heavy rain stubbornly refuses to budge

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