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World Tourism Barometer: November 2023

International Tourism to end 2023 close to 90% of Pre-pandemic levels

World destinations welcomed 22% more international tourists in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year, reflecting a strong Northern Hemisphere summer season (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

An estimated 975 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September 2023, an increase of 38% over the same months of 2022, though 13% fewer than in 2019 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023-Excerpt) .

Overall, tourism recovered 87% of pre-pandemic levels in January-September 2023. That puts the sector on course to recover almost 90% by the end of the year. And international tourism receipts could reach USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

Asia and the Pacific reached 62% of pre-pandemic levels this period due to slower reopening to international travel. However, performance among subregions is mixed, with South Asia recovering 95% of pre-pandemic levels but North-East Asia only about 50% (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

According to Trip.com, global search results for inbound travel to China have significantly improved in Q3 2023 by nearly 40% compared to Q2. In terms of Chinese outbound travel, hotel and air ticket reservations made have already recovered 80% of pre-pandemic levels in Q3. This show signs of gradual recovery of cross-border traffic further to China’s reopening of borders early this year. On 24 November, China announced a unilateral 15- day visa-free entry policy for holders of ordinary passports from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia, during the period from 1 December 2023 to 30 November 2024 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023-Excerpt) .

International tourism is well on track to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024 despite economic challenges such as high inflation and weaker global output, as well as important geopolitical tensions and conflicts (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

Read more on the UNWTO Tourism Barometer (November 2023 excerpt) here .

About the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is a publication of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) that monitors short-term tourism trends regularly to provide global tourism stakeholders with up-to-date analysis of international tourism. The information is updated several times a year and includes an analysis of the latest data on tourism destinations (inbound tourism) and source markets (outbound tourism). The Barometer also includes three times a year Confidence Index based on the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts survey, which provides an evaluation of recent performance and short-term prospects for international tourism.

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Ask Skift: What Is the Biggest Emerging Outbound Tourism Market?

Rashaad Jorden , Skift

July 31st, 2023 at 2:27 PM EDT

While international travel is poised to continue growing this year, one country increasingly stands out as a rapidly emerging outbound tourism market. Here's a look at what we found.

Rashaad Jorden

Although Skift reported in its recently released State of Travel 2023 report that international travel in most global regions still trails 2019 levels, there is gradual progress. International travel has been boosted in recent years in part by a significant increase in destinations providing visitors visa-free access.

What’s the biggest emerging outbound tourism market?  Ask Skift , our artificial intelligence chatbot, answered the question using information appearing in our daily news coverage and Skift Research.

Here’s the answer Ask Skift provided as well as more information we gathered on the subject.

Ask Skift Is the AI Chatbot for the Travel Industry

Go deeper into the business of travel with Skift’s new AI chatbot.

Ask Skift said:

The biggest emerging outbound tourism market is India. This is due to their expanding middle class which is increasingly venturing farther from home. In 2022, India generated Asia’s highest outbound travel volume for the first time, with foreign trips exceeding those of China, South Korea, and Japan. With around 10 million foreign trips, the country registered a 190 percent year-on-year rise in outbound travel last year .

The CEO of Marriott International, Anthony Capuano, predicted a positive trend in the emerging outbound travel demand from Asia Pacific, and specifically highlighted India as an outbound source market over the next decade.

What else you need to know:

A 2023 Skift Megatrend said India was becoming the new China in terms of being a major outbound travel market. India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation in April of this year, according to data released by the United Nations.

A recent report revealed that outbound tourism from India is expected to be worth $44.7 billion by 2032 . In addition, international leisure flight bookings from India have jumped 40% for trips between June and August compared to the same timeframe last year, travel software company RateGain found. RateGain said that figure represents the highest level of outbound leisure flight bookings from India in the post-pandemic era .

In addition, Omri Morgenshtern, CEO of Singapore-based online travel agency Agoda, said Indian travelers have been searching for international trips faster than travelers in any other global market. Company data revealed outbound travel searches from travelers in India jumped by 225% from 2019 to mid-May of this year.

Indian consumers have also expressed optimism that any possible economic downturns wouldn’t slow down the country’s travel industry. A Skift Research survey earlier this year found 94% of Indians expect business travel spending to rise in 2023 while 74% of respondents expect to increase their personal spending on leisure travel this year.

The region’s airlines saw a nearly 193% jump in April 2023 traffic compared to the same month last year . Skift Research reported in its Travel Health Index for June 2023 that Asia-Pacific, as well as all other global regions, have made a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels. Agoda also found that outbound travel searches from most Asia-Pacific countries increased between 30% and 60% from 2019 .

More Responses from Ask Skift : Why Hasn’t the U.S. Made a Full Tourism Recovery? Why Is Summer Travel so Difficult? What Is AI’s Impact on Travel?

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India is booming. Discover the subcontinent’s most important travel news here every Tuesday-Thursday.

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Tags: asia pacific , ask skift , india , india outbound , outbound tourism , outbound travel

Photo credit: Smiling young woman with camera enjoying sunlight on face against mountain range during vacation Klaus Vedfelt / Getty Images

Analysis-Chinese Outbound Travel Recovery Lags Due to Costs, Visa Snags

FILE PHOTO: Passengers look at the tarmac as they wait for their flights at the Beijing Capital International Airport, in Beijing, China April 20, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

By Sophie Yu, Casey Hall and Lisa Barrington

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A recovery in Chinese overseas travel from the COVID-19 pandemic is fading as rising costs and difficulties in securing visas cement a preference for local and short-haul destinations.

The delay in a revival to pre-COVID levels by China's outbound travellers, the world's top spenders on international tourism and airlines, is hitting travel-related companies, hotels and retailers globally.

Eighteen months after China dropped strict zero-COVID policies and reopened its borders, the recovery in overseas travel is lagging behind market expectations and the shape of Chinese travel is changing, with a surge in domestic trips.

Pressured by a prolonged property crisis, high unemployment and a gloomy outlook in the world's second-biggest economy, Chinese consumers have become more frugal since the pandemic, prompting discount wars on everything from travel to cars, coffee and clothes.

Chinese people took 87 million trips abroad last year, down 40% from pre-COVID 2019, and industry observers say the pace has slowed since the Lunar New Year in February. China's travellers spent 24% less last year than in 2019, while U.S. travellers' spending was up 14%, according to U.N. Tourism data. The Chinese lag is bad news for countries like France, Australia and the U.S., which were among the top destinations for Chinese travellers before the pandemic.

Liu Simin, vice president of the tourism branch of the China Society for Futures Studies research institute, forecasts China's international travel might not recover to pre-pandemic levels for another five years.

"The recovery is a lot slower than expected," Liu said. "The devaluation of the Chinese yuan combined with inflation in the U.S. and Europe is a double blow."

The Chinese currency has fallen more than 2% against the dollar since the start of the year, raising costs in yuan terms for Chinese travellers abroad.

Consultancy Oliver Wyman last month pushed its estimates for China's international travel recovery to late 2025, half a year later than it forecast last year.

"I would actually argue that consumers are even more cost-conscious than last year, and you'll also see that feed into travel trends," said Imke Wouters, Hong Kong-based partner at Oliver Wyman.

To be sure, overseas travel is rebounding, with Chinese travellers again the world’s top spenders on international tourism last year after falling behind the United States in 2022, according to U.N. Tourism data.

This summer 8% of flights at Chinese airports have been international, up from just 1% in 2022, according to aviation data provider OAG.

FLIP TO DOMESTIC TRAVEL

That recovery, however, is overshadowed by the surge in domestic trips, which hit a record 295 million during the five-day May Day holiday, up more than 20% from 2019, official data showed.

Domestic airlines seats were up 16% in May from the same month in 2019, while international flights were down 30%, Cirium data shows.

Wouters at Oliver Wyman said 40% of those who travelled abroad in 2023 for the first time since borders reopened had decided not to travel internationally again this year, mainly due to inconvenience and long visa processing times for many European destinations.

Beijing resident Wang Shu, 38, vacationed domestically after cancelling a trip to France because he could not get a visa, despite trying to book a visa appointment months ahead.

"I tried booking the interview in late March, as I planned to attend the French Open tennis in late May, but the earliest date that I could book was June 19," Wang said.

Wang instead vacationed in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, known for its spicy food.

"The food was great, I watched a concert and spent one-tenth of the money I'd have spent in France," he said.

Australia's top source of tourists before COVID, China is now number four, with arrivals down 53% in March from March 2019, said Margy Osmond, chief executive of Tourism & Transport Forum Australia.

Chinese travellers to France, the most visited country in the world, have reached only 28.5% of 2019 levels, according to airport operator ADP.

Capacity on U.S.-China routes remains down more than 80% from 2019 levels, weighed by intensifying bilateral political tensions. The U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office expects Chinese tourism to the U.S. to recover fully only in 2026.

By contrast, countries with visa-free policies have received strong growth in Chinese visitors.

These include Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where flight capacity has also increased.

Switzerland, growing in popularity with high-end travellers on Trip.com, boasts a seven-day visa process, said Jane Sun, CEO of Trip.com Group.

Japan has also received a surge in Chinese travellers this year, boosted by a plunge in the yen's value.

"We are not just seeing a market re-growing, we are seeing a market re-shaping," Gary Bowerman, director of tourism intelligence firm Check-In Asia, told an OAG webinar last month.

(Reporting by Sophie Yu in Beijing, Casey Hall in Shanghai and Lisa Barrington in Seoul; Additional reporting by Diana Mandia in Gdansk; Editing by Miyoung Kim and William Mallard)

Copyright 2024 Thomson Reuters .

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• Chinese outbound travel recovery lags due to costs, visa snags

• Updated On Jun 17, 2024 at 10:52 AM IST

Destination DC announces record visitation, India 2nd ranked inbound market

The influx of visitors generated a record USD 10.2 billion in visitor spending and supported 102,366 local jobs, reflecting a substantial economic boost for the city. Notably, 165,100 Indian tourists visited Washington, DC in 2023, contributing USD 287.4 million to the local economy. The surge in tourism has had a profound impact on the city's economy, with visitor spending up 29 per cent and tourism-related jobs up 25 per cent year-over-year.

• Published On Jun 17, 2024 at 10:42 AM IST

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Reporting by Sophie Yu in Beijing, Casey Hall in Shanghai and Lisa Barrington in Seoul; Additional reporting by Diana Mandia in Gdansk; Editing by Miyoung Kim and William Mallard

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Chinese outbound travel recovery lags due to costs, visa snags

A recovery in Chinese overseas travel from the COVID-19 pandemic is fading as rising costs and difficulties in securing visas cement a preference for local and short-haul destinations.

The delay in a revival to pre-COVID levels by China's outbound travelers, the world's top spenders on international tourism and airlines, is hitting travel-related companies, hotels and retailers globally.

Eighteen months after China dropped strict zero-COVID policies and reopened its borders, the recovery in overseas travel is lagging behind market expectations and the shape of Chinese travel is changing, with a surge in domestic trips.

Pressured by a prolonged property crisis, high unemployment and a gloomy outlook in the world's second-biggest economy, Chinese consumers have become more frugal since the pandemic, prompting discount wars on everything from travel to cars, coffee and clothes.

Chinese people took 87 million trips abroad last year, down 40% from pre-COVID 2019, and industry observers say the pace has slowed since the Lunar New Year in February. China's travelers spent 24% less last year than in 2019, while U.S. travelers' spending was up 14%, according to U.N. Tourism data.

The Chinese lag is bad news for countries like France, Australia and the U.S., which were among the top destinations for Chinese travelers before the pandemic.

Liu Simin, vice president of the tourism branch of the China Society for Futures Studies research institute, forecasts China's international travel might not recover to pre-pandemic levels for another five years.

"The recovery is a lot slower than expected," Liu said. "The devaluation of the Chinese yuan combined with inflation in the U.S. and Europe is a double blow."

The Chinese currency has fallen more than 2% against the dollar since the start of the year, raising costs in yuan terms for Chinese travelers abroad.

Consultancy Oliver Wyman last month pushed its estimates for China's international travel recovery to late 2025, half a year later than it forecast last year.

"I would actually argue that consumers are even more cost-conscious than last year, and you'll also see that feed into travel trends," said Imke Wouters, Hong Kong-based partner at Oliver Wyman.

To be sure, overseas travel is rebounding, with Chinese travelers again the world’s top spenders on international tourism last year after falling behind the United States in 2022, according to U.N. Tourism data.

This summer 8% of flights at Chinese airports have been international, up from just 1% in 2022, according to aviation data provider OAG.

FLIP TO DOMESTIC TRAVEL

That recovery, however, is overshadowed by the surge in domestic trips, which hit a record 295 million during the five-day May Day holiday, up more than 20% from 2019, official data showed.

Domestic airlines seats were up 16% in May from the same month in 2019, while international flights were down 30%, Cirium data shows.

Wouters at Oliver Wyman said 40% of those who travelled abroad in 2023 for the first time since borders reopened had decided not to travel internationally again this year, mainly due to inconvenience and long visa processing times for many European destinations.

Beijing resident Wang Shu, 38, vacationed domestically after cancelling a trip to France because he could not get a visa, despite trying to book a visa appointment months ahead.

"I tried booking the interview in late March, as I planned to attend the French Open tennis in late May, but the earliest date that I could book was June 19," Wang said.

Wang instead vacationed in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, known for its spicy food.

"The food was great, I watched a concert and spent one-tenth of the money I'd have spent in France," he said.

Australia's top source of tourists before COVID, China is now number four, with arrivals down 53% in March from March 2019, said Margy Osmond, chief executive of Tourism & Transport Forum Australia.

Chinese travelers to France, the most visited country in the world, have reached only 28.5% of 2019 levels, according to airport operator ADP.

Capacity on U.S.-China routes remains down more than 80% from 2019 levels, weighed by intensifying bilateral political tensions. The U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office expects Chinese tourism to the U.S. to recover fully only in 2026.

By contrast, countries with visa-free policies have received strong growth in Chinese visitors.

These include Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where flight capacity has also increased.

Switzerland, growing in popularity with high-end travelers on Trip.com, boasts a seven-day visa process, said Jane Sun, CEO of Trip.com Group.

Japan has also received a surge in Chinese travelers this year, boosted by a plunge in the yen's value.

"We are not just seeing a market re-growing, we are seeing a market re-shaping," Gary Bowerman, director of tourism intelligence firm Check-In Asia, told an OAG webinar last month.

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• Premium Statistic Hotel openings worldwide 2021-2024
• Premium Statistic Hotel room openings worldwide 2021-2024
• Premium Statistic Countries with the most hotel construction projects in the pipeline worldwide 2022

Global hotel and resort industry market size worldwide 2022-2023

Market size of the hotel and resort industry worldwide in 2022 and 2023 (in trillion U.S. dollars)

Most valuable hotel brands worldwide 2023, by brand value

Leading hotel brands based on brand value worldwide in 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Leading hotel companies worldwide 2023, by number of properties

Leading hotel companies worldwide as of June 2023, by number of properties

Hotel openings worldwide 2021-2024

Number of hotels opened worldwide from 2021 to 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2024

Hotel room openings worldwide 2021-2024

Number of hotel rooms opened worldwide from 2021 to 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2024

Countries with the most hotel construction projects in the pipeline worldwide 2022

Countries with the highest number of hotel construction projects in the pipeline worldwide as of Q4 2022

• Premium Statistic Airports with the most international air passenger traffic worldwide 2022
• Premium Statistic Market value of selected airlines worldwide 2023
• Premium Statistic Global passenger rail users forecast 2017-2028
• Premium Statistic Daily ridership of bus rapid transit systems worldwide by region 2023
• Premium Statistic Number of users of car rentals worldwide 2019-2028
• Premium Statistic Number of users in selected countries in the Car Rentals market in 2023
• Premium Statistic Carbon footprint of international tourism transport worldwide 2005-2030, by type

Airports with the most international air passenger traffic worldwide 2022

Leading airports for international air passenger traffic in 2022 (in million international passengers)

Market value of selected airlines worldwide 2023

Market value of selected airlines worldwide as of May 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Global passenger rail users forecast 2017-2028

Worldwide number of passenger rail users from 2017 to 2023, with a forecast through 2028 (in billion users)

Daily ridership of bus rapid transit systems worldwide by region 2023

Number of daily passengers using bus rapid transit (BRT) systems as of April 2023, by region

Number of users of car rentals worldwide 2019-2028

Number of users of car rentals worldwide from 2019 to 2028 (in millions)

Number of users in selected countries in the Car Rentals market in 2023

Number of users in selected countries in the Car Rentals market in 2023 (in million)

Carbon footprint of international tourism transport worldwide 2005-2030, by type

Transport-related emissions from international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2005 and 2016, with a forecast for 2030, by mode of transport (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide)

Attractions

• Premium Statistic Leading museums by highest attendance worldwide 2019-2022
• Basic Statistic Most visited amusement and theme parks worldwide 2019-2022
• Basic Statistic Monuments on the UNESCO world heritage list 2023, by type
• Basic Statistic Selected countries with the most Michelin-starred restaurants worldwide 2023

Leading museums by highest attendance worldwide 2019-2022

Most visited museums worldwide from 2019 to 2022 (in millions)

Most visited amusement and theme parks worldwide 2019-2022

Leading amusement and theme parks worldwide from 2019 to 2022, by attendance (in millions)

Monuments on the UNESCO world heritage list 2023, by type

Number of monuments on the UNESCO world heritage list as of September 2023, by type

Selected countries with the most Michelin-starred restaurants worldwide 2023

Number of Michelin-starred restaurants in selected countries and territories worldwide as of July 2023

Online travel market

• Premium Statistic Online travel market size worldwide 2017-2028
• Premium Statistic Estimated desktop vs. mobile revenue of leading OTAs worldwide 2023
• Premium Statistic Number of aggregated downloads of leading online travel agency apps worldwide 2023
• Basic Statistic Market cap of leading online travel companies worldwide 2023
• Premium Statistic Estimated EV/Revenue ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment
• Premium Statistic Estimated EV/EBITDA ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment

Online travel market size worldwide 2017-2028

Online travel market size worldwide from 2017 to 2023, with a forecast until 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Estimated desktop vs. mobile revenue of leading OTAs worldwide 2023

Estimated desktop vs. mobile revenue of leading online travel agencies (OTAs) worldwide in 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Number of aggregated downloads of leading online travel agency apps worldwide 2023

Number of aggregated downloads of selected leading online travel agency apps worldwide in 2023 (in millions)

Market cap of leading online travel companies worldwide 2023

Market cap of leading online travel companies worldwide as of September 2023 (in million U.S. dollars)

Estimated EV/Revenue ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment

Estimated enterprise value to revenue (EV/Revenue) ratio in the online travel market worldwide as of April 2024, by segment

Estimated EV/EBITDA ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment

Estimated enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio in the online travel market worldwide as of April 2024, by segment

Selected trends

• Premium Statistic Global travelers who believe in the importance of green travel 2023
• Premium Statistic Sustainable initiatives travelers would adopt worldwide 2022, by region
• Premium Statistic Airbnb revenue worldwide 2017-2023
• Premium Statistic Airbnb nights and experiences booked worldwide 2017-2023
• Premium Statistic Technologies global hotels plan to implement in the next three years 2022
• Premium Statistic Hotel technologies global consumers think would improve their future stay 2022

Global travelers who believe in the importance of green travel 2023

Share of travelers that believe sustainable travel is important worldwide in 2023

Sustainable initiatives travelers would adopt worldwide 2022, by region

Main sustainable initiatives travelers are willing to adopt worldwide in 2022, by region

Airbnb revenue worldwide 2017-2023

Revenue of Airbnb worldwide from 2017 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Airbnb nights and experiences booked worldwide 2017-2023

Nights and experiences booked with Airbnb from 2017 to 2023 (in millions)

Technologies global hotels plan to implement in the next three years 2022

Technologies hotels are most likely to implement in the next three years worldwide as of 2022

Hotel technologies global consumers think would improve their future stay 2022

Must-have hotel technologies to create a more amazing stay in the future among travelers worldwide as of 2022

• Premium Statistic Travel and tourism revenue worldwide 2019-2028, by segment
• Premium Statistic Distribution of sales channels in the travel and tourism market worldwide 2018-2028
• Premium Statistic Inbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region
• Premium Statistic Outbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region

Travel and tourism revenue worldwide 2019-2028, by segment

Revenue of the global travel and tourism market from 2019 to 2028, by segment (in billion U.S. dollars)

Distribution of sales channels in the travel and tourism market worldwide 2018-2028

Revenue share of sales channels of the travel and tourism market worldwide from 2018 to 2028

Inbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region

Inbound tourism visitor growth worldwide from 2020 to 2022, with a forecast until 2025, by region

Outbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region

Outbound tourism visitor growth worldwide from 2020 to 2022, with a forecast until 2025, by region

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International Tourism to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024

• All Regions
• 19 Jan 2024

Following a strong 2023, international tourism is well on track to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.

According to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year, international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels , with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals . The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations, are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024.

Middle East, Europe and Africa performed strongest in 2023

The latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer provides a comprehensive overview of the sector's performance in 2023, tracking recovery by global region, sub-region and destination. Key takeaways include:

• The Middle East led recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019.
• Europe , the world's most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
• Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%.
• Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance is mixed, with South Asia already recovering 87% of 2019 levels and North-East Asia around 55%. 

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over 2019)

Available data shows several destinations, including both large, established destinations as well as small and emerging ones, reporting double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 when compared to 2019. Four sub-regions exceeded their 2019 arrival levels: Southern Mediterranean Europe, Caribbean, Central America and North Africa.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: "The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism's resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024. The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development"

International tourism hit US$1.4 trillion in 2023

The latest UNWTO data also highlights the economic impact of recovery.

• International tourism receipts reached USD 1.4 trillion in 2023 according to preliminary estimates, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.
• Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
• Preliminary estimates on the economic contribution of tourism, measured in tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery of pre-pandemic TDGDP driven by strong domestic and international tourism.

Several destinations reported strong growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten to twelve months of 2023, exceeding in some cases growth in arrivals. Strong demand for outbound travel was also reported by several large source markets this period, with many exceeding 2019 levels.

The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand recovered about 90% of pre-pandemic levels through October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly above 62% in November 2022 (based on STR data).

Looking Ahead to 2024

International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.  

The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year. Key considerations include:

• There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will boost recovery in the region and globally.
• Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is applying visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for a year to 30 November 2024.
• Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
• Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
• Strong travel from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.
• Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade can continue to impact transport and accommodations costs in 2024.
• Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice. 
• Staff shortages remain a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortfall in labor to cope with high demand.
• The evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.

Related links

• Download the News Release on PDF
• World Tourism Barometer | EXCERPT | Volume 22 • Issue 1 • January 2024
• World Tourism Barometer | PPT Version | Volume 22 • Issue 1 • January 2024
• UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
• UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard

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