mass tourism in the philippines

The mass tourism industry EXPLAINED

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Mass tourism is a prominent part of the tourism industry. Associated with the traditional package holiday, well-known holiday resorts and famous tourist attractions, many areas both benefit and suffer at the hands of mass tourism. But what exactly is mass tourism and how does it impact the wider tourism industry?

In this article I will explain what mass tourism is, with some useful definitions. I will then outline the characteristics of mass tourism, the evolution of mass tourism and the positive and negative impacts of mass tourism. Lastly, I will provide some examples off destinations that are known for their mass tourism industries.

What is mass tourism?

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Well, the clue is in the title!

Mass tourism is essentially tourism that involves ‘the masses’.

So, what is a mass? Well, this is not exactly clear. But lets just say its usually a lot- like thousands or tens of thousands or more.

Mass tourism can occur in a variety of tourism situations. It could be a coastal resort, such as Benidorm. It could be an area that is home to a major tourist attractions, such as the Great Wall of China . It could be a picturesque village or remote island.

Wherever mass tourism occurs, it relies on the same concept- there are large amounts of tourists , often filling or exceeding capacity, in a given location at one time.

For decades, mass tourism has been a widely used term in tourism literature as well as in wider society. Yet, to this day there has never been a clearly agreed definition and content.

According to Poon (1993), mass tourism refers to the movement of a large number of organised tourists to popular holiday destinations for recreational purposes. It is a phenomenon which is characterised by the use of standardised package products and mass consumption. Conceptually, this type of tourism features standardized leisure products and experiences packaged for mass tourists.

Hilallali (2003) describes mass tourism as ‘an offspring of industrialisation and democracy, good student of consumption and globalisation .

As noted by Dehoorne et Theng in 2015, Mass tourism is the epitome of aggressively large-scale sold standardized packages stands in stark opposition to elite or luxury tourism.

Naumov and Green (2016) state that mass tourism refers to the movement of a large number of organised tourists to popular holiday destinations for recreational purposes.

Whilst these definitions are useful, I personally feel that they are all missing some important detail. These definitions quite rightly acknowledge the fact that organised packaged tourism products are significant facilitators of mass tourism. But they fail to acknowledge the growing dynamic independent tourist.

In today’s world, consumers are more independent than ever. We can find a cheaper deal online ourselves than what the travel agent is offering. We can plan our own itinerary using the information presented by travel blogs. We don’t need a guide when we can download the information we need on our phones. But just because we are not part of a mass organised group, does not mean that we are not mass tourists.

Thousands of tourists flock to Santorini’s picturesque white streets each July. Thousands of people line the streets of Shanghai to get a look at the light show on the Bund each evening. People struggle to get a photo without the crowds of tourists behind them at the Pyramids of Giza in Egypt. Are all of these people on an organised package holiday? I very much doubt it.

In reality, most attempts to define the concept of mass tourism are indeed outdated, failing to take into account post-modern tourist motivations and behaviours. In light of this, I have developed my own definition of mass tourism below…

Mass tourism can be defined as ‘extreme concentrations of tourists in any one place, resulting in saturation of the place’. Mass tourism cannot be characterised by specific numbers or values, because every destination has different carrying capacities. Rather, mass tourism occurs when there are too many tourists for a destination to comfortably accommodate.

Characteristics of mass tourism

OK, so now we have defined mass tourism, what are the identifying characteristics? The most notable characteristics of mass tourism include: extreme concentrations of tourists; the saturation of a destination, travel in organised groups, good accessibility to a destination, media influence, the stage of consolidation and tourists who are described as psychocentric.

I will explain what each of these means below.

The most obviously characteristic of mass tourism is that there are a lot of tourists. What is a lot, I hear you say? Well, I can’t quite answer that question-sorry.

Each type of tourist destination is different. Some places are big, others are small. In fact, what is a destination? Well, this isn’t entirely clear either.

In the context of mass tourism, a destination could be a city, a holiday resort or the area surrounding a popular tourist attraction. The size of the destination doesn’t actually matter though. The important fact is that there are more tourists that come to the area at a given time than the destination can comfortably cope with.

OK, so here comes another subjective term- what does ‘comfortably cope’ mean? Well, what I mean by this, is that if the tourism has adverse effects as a result of the visitor numbers, it is no longer ‘comfortably coping’. This could include environmental degradation, gentrification or adverse social impacts, for example.

So the major characteristic associated with mass tourism is that there are too many tourists in a given area, big or small.

Having too many tourists leads to saturation of a tourist destination.

If a tourist destination is saturated, there are likely to be more tourists than members of the local community. Revenue from tourism-related activities is likely to dominate the economy. Many of the negative economic , environmental and social impacts of tourism are notable.

Mass tourism is generally associated with the concept of overtourism . Overtourism refers to the issue of having too many visitors in a given time in a given place, which impacts negatively on the tourist experience, the host community and environment.

Overtourism is a growing problem that can only be resolved by adopting principles of sustainable tourism management.

Mass tourism is associated with organised and packaged tourism.

Whilst not all mass tourists are package tourists, there is definitely a linear relationship between the two.

By default, group organised holidays bring large amounts of tourists to a destination at the same time. Whether this by via a coach tour, a day trip or through a tour operator, travel in organised groups brings large amounts of tourists together in one place at one time.

Group tourism is usually organised in a place because it has some particular value to the tourist. For example, there are many tours to visit the famous Abu Simbel attraction in Aswan, Egypt. Likewise, Sharm el Sheikh is a popular destination for package holidays and enclave tourism .

Mass tourism is directly associated with good accessibility.

The advent of the low cost airline largely fuelled the growth of the mass tourism industry. Airlines such as easyJet and Wizz Air put new tourist destinations on the map and helped to transport more tourists to existing tourist destinations than areas could [can] comfortable cope with.

Cheap flights has meant that many areas have become saturated with tourism. Cheap flights means that more people can afford to go on holiday, more often.

But accessibility isn’t just about price. The past two decades have seen the number of available flights increase exponentially. This has meant that destinations are more accessible to tourists.

Likewise, many destinations have become more accessible because they have developed their transport infrastructure. New airports, new roadways and improved rail infrastructure has meant that more tourists can reach more destinations around the world than ever before.

If we don’t know about a place then we don’t go to a place.

The media has placed a significant role in the growth of tourism to particular areas. From episodes of Karl Pilkington’s Idiot Abroad to Travel Man, starring Richard Ayoade , to Leonardo Dicaprio’s famous film, The Beach , there are plenty of places that have made their way to fame through the media.

One of the most notable developments in the promotion of tourist destinations is the development of social media. Have you ever heard of Insta tourism ? Yep- it’s a an actual type of tourism !

Social media platforms have raised awareness of many tourist destinations around the world that had previously featured only deep in our guidebooks.

In particular, Instagram’s geotagging function enables social media influencers to display the exact location of where their photographs were taken. This has resulted in tourists flocking to areas around the world that had previously experienced little or no tourism.

Butler, in his Tourism Area Life Cycle model , outlines the way in which a destination grows and evolves. In his model, there is a clear point at which tourist numbers are at their highest. This is the time when tourism is fully developed and is starting to the negative experience impacts associated with overtourism .

When tourism reaches the stage of consolidation in a destination, it is likely that it is also experiencing the concept of mass tourism.

Similarly to Butler, Plog looked at tourist motivations, mapping them to particular times during a destination’s development in his model of allocentricity and psychocentricity .

Plog demonstrated in his typological assessment, that when a tourist is classified as a psychometric tourist, they are likely to pertain to mass tourism as their primary choice of holiday type.

Psychocentric tourists typically travel in organised groups. Their holidays are typically organised for them by their  travel agent . These travellers seek the familiar. They are happy in the knowledge that their holiday resort will provide them with their home comforts. These tourists enjoy holiday resorts and  all inclusive packages . They are components of  enclave tourism , meaning that they are likely to stay put in their hotel for the majority of the duration of their holiday. These are often repeat tourists, who choose to visit the same destination year-on-year.

The history of tourism is a long one and mass tourism plays a key role in the growth and development of the tourism industry .

The origins of mass tourism can be traced back to 1851, when Thomas Cook led his first organised group of tourists to the Great Exhibition in London. While his business model did change and adapt over the years, the concept remained the same- organised group travel.

Over time, more and more people were able to travel. After World War ii, people began to have more disposable income and new legislation was brought in to ensure that workers had paid holidays each year.

At the same time, destinations became more developed. They developed their transport infrastructure, promoted their destination for tourism and built the facilities and amenities that tourists required.

Mass tourism notably developed in Western societies since the 1950s. This was the result of a period of strong economic growth. Mass tourism was first seen in Western Europe, North America and Japan as these countries had strong economies and thus the general public were wealthier overall.

Globalisation has also fuelled the mass tourism industry. People can find the familiar on their travels. There are less surprises than there once was. We can research our trip on the Internet and watch travel shows to familiarise ourselves before we travel.

The mass tourism industry really started to boom with the advent of the low cost carrier . The average UK outbound tourist went from having one two week holiday per year to taking a big holiday and a couple of short breaks. People who couldn’t afford to go on holiday before, were now being brought into the market.

Types of mass tourism

Although many people associate mass tourism predominantly with the traditional package holiday model, there are in fact many different types of mass tourism.

Examples of enclave tourism destinations : Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt ; Kusadasi, Turkey; Costa Blanca, Spain.

Mass tourism is commonly associated with enclave tourism .

Enclave tourism is essentially tourism that takes place in a space that is segregated from the community outside. It is in its own ‘bubble’, so to speak.

Enclave tourism implies a conscious decision to segregate tourists from the general population . This is usually in the context of an all-inclusive environment such as a cruise ship, hotel or resort complex.

Enclaves are enclosed and self-contained physically, socially, and economically. This means that tourists have hardly any reasons to leave the enclave.

Examples of mass tourism beach destinations: Benidorm, Spain; Phuket, Thailand; Kuta, Bali .

There are many beach areas where the destinations have become overdeveloped. These are most commonly located in Western Europe, although they are found all around the world. It is these overdeveloped beach areas that are most commonly associated with mass tourism.

Mass tourism beach holidays have traditionally been the bread and butter for travel agents . Up until this day, high street travel agents are filled with holidays brochures boasting photo after photo of beautiful beaches and swimming pools.

With the lack of British sunshine and seemingly endless rainy days, it is no surprise that Brits, amongst other nationalities, seek warmer climes. Thomas Cook’s products were among the first to provide British holiday makers with the typical sun, sea and sand experience, but there have since been many more players enter the market.

Examples of mass ski destinations: Andorra, Italy ; Chamonix, France; Breckonridge, USA.

There are many ski resorts that have developed to such a stage that they can now be classified as mass tourism destinations.

Popular throughout the winter months, many tourists flock to ski destinations for their holiday. This is especially popular in the Alps in Europe and the Rockies in the USA and Canada.

Ski holidays are also often sold as a packaged product by travel agents, composing of flights, transfers, accommodation and ski rental/lessons.

Examples of mass tourism in theme parks: Universal Studios Florida , USA; Alton Towers, UK; Disney Shanghai, China.

Theme parks attract large amounts of tourists.

Disney Land, Paris attracts around 15 million tourists each year, Disney Land in Tokyo has approximately 18 million visitors and Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney Florida has more than 20 million tourists each year! Wow, that’s a lot!

People who visit theme parks also often provide a tourism boost for local areas too. People may choose to eat at nearby restaurants or stay in nearby hotels.

Mass tourism events: Hogmonay, Edinburgh, UK; Rio Carnival, Brazil; San Fermin , Spain.

Mass tourism occurs when large numbers of people undertake tourism-related activities in the same place at the same time. This is often the case with major events.

From the Olympics to the Day of the Dead Festival in Mexico, events attract tourists all over the world.

Mass tourism caused from events can out a strain on locals areas, which may not be equipped to deal with the influx of visitors.

Examples of major tourist attractions attracting the masses: The Eiffel Tower, France ; The Pyramids of Giza, Egypt; The Great Wall, China.

Many tourists will travel to an area to visit a particular tourist attraction. Whether this is a museum in Paris, a war memorial in Washington or an underground cave in Jeju , South Korea, tourist attractions are often the main appeal of a tourist destination .

Major tourist attractions can attract masses of tourists, who then spend time in the surrounding area, thus making the area a mass tourism destination.

Examples of mass tourism cruise areas: The Caribbean; the Mediterranean.

Cruise tourism is one of the most popular types of tourism .

Cruises come in all shapes and sizes and the smaller ones are obviously not examples of mass tourism. However, some cruise ships are so big that they are the size of a small city!

The largest cruise ships in the world have a capacity of more than 5000 tourists. These tourists will disembark en mass when the ship docks at various locations, causing an influx of tourists to said destinations over a short period of time.

Examples of mountain climbing where tourist numbers exceed capacity: Mount Everest; Mount Kilimanjaro.

Mass tourism when climbing a mountain? Surely not? Well actually- yes.

OK so you are not getting thousands of tourists like you might on a cruise ship or in a beach resort, but like I explained earlier, mass tourism is not about specific numbers- it is when the numbers exceed capacity.

Sadly, there have been many stories in recent years of capacity issues when climbing mountains. The most notable is on Mount Everest, where tourists have dies as a result of queuing at high altitude.

Whilst mass tourism is most commonly discussed because of its negative impacts, there are actually some positive impacts of mass tourism too.

Mass tourism makes money. That’s the number one motivator for all destinations who allow areas to evolve into mass tourism destinations (not sure what I mean? Take a look at Butler’s Tourism Area Life Cycle model ). After all, money is what makes the world go round, right?

Mass tourism brings lots of tourists. Lots of tourists spend lots of money. This supports economic growth in the local area and enables the destination to spend or reinvest the money that is made in a way that is appropriate for that particular area. Some destinations may build more hotels. Other may make financial investments. Some may spend more money on public health services or education.

However they choose to spend their money, it is money which is the motivation for tourism development.

Mass tourism creates many jobs. This also helps to boost the local economy as well as supporting livelihoods. Jobs can be directly related to tourism (i.e. a hotel waiter or a holiday representative) or they can be indirectly related to tourism (i.e. the fisherman who supplies fish to the hotels).

You can read more about the positive economic impacts of tourism here .

Mass tourism has gained a pretty bad reputation in recent years. If you Google the term ‘mass tourism’ you will be largely greeted with articles that discuss the negative impacts on the environment and society.

Mass tourism creates intense environmental pressures due to the fact that such activity involves a large number of tourists in small areas. The environmental impacts of tourism include aspects such as littering, erosion, displacement of animals, damage to flora and fauna and reduction in air quality, to name but a few.

Mass tourism can also cause significant social impacts . Gentrification, increases in crime, loss of culture and authenticity and cultural ignorance are just some of the ways that large amount of tourists in a given area can negatively effect the local society.

The other major problem is economic leakage . Whilst mass tourism creates significant revenue, not all of this money remains in the destination. In fact, because mass tourism is closely associated with all inclusive holidays and enclave tourism, it experiences more economic leakage than other areas of the tourism industry.

Economic leakage is when the money raised leaks out of the area. This is largely due to multinational chains operating within the tourism system .

If you eat McDonalds, most of your money goes back to America.

If you buy a can of Coke, most of your money goes back to America.

If you stay in a Hilton Hotel, most of your money goes back to America.

Get the picture?

The key to managing mass tourism in a sustainable way is to minimise visitor numbers. OK, so that sounds counterintuitive, right? Wrong.

Yes, mass tourism is great because it brings in lots of money. BUT the problem is that it is not sustainable. Destinations cannot continue to exceed their capacity indefinitely.

As I explained above, there are generally more negative impacts associated with mass tourism than there are positive. But that doesn’t mean that mass tourism doesn’t have to stop altogether. There are many methods to manage tourism destinations in a more sustainable manner.

One way to manage mass tourism better is to provide incentives to help distribute tourists evenly throughout the year and to avoid the peaks and troughs that come with seasonality. Instead of having the majority of tourists arrive in July and August, for example, a destination could put caps on visitor numbers during this time and instead offer discounted rates at other times of the year.

A destination could temporarily close to allow for some of the environmental damage caused by mass tourism to be repaired. This has been done at Maya Bay in Thailand and on the island of Borocay in the Philippines in recent years, with positive outcomes.

Another way to manage mass tourism in a more sustainable way is to introduce smart tourism techniques. These can help to better manage tourist flows, monitor tourist activity and accurately analyse tourist patterns and behaviours. This allows tourism stakeholders to more easily and more accurately implement sustainable tourism principles where possible.

Ultimately, however, sustainable tourism and mass tourism are contradictory terms. Mass tourism is generally viewed as the antithesis of sustainability, due to the large amount of negative impacts that are widely known and documented. That isn’t to say that sustainable mass tourism is impossible, it just requires some very careful tourism planning and management.

There are many destinations around the world that are classed at mass tourism destinations. Some are resorts, others are major tourist attractions. Some destinations have suffered at the hands of the mass tourism industry for many years and others are new to the scene. In some cases, Governments have [are] implementing changes to better manage tourism or to remove themselves from the mass tourism market.

As much as I would love to discuss each of the mass tourism destinations below, this article is already almost 4000 words long, and I don’t want to bore you! Instead, I will provide a list of mass tourism destinations and if you are interested, you can research these more yourself!

Mass tourism destinations include:

• Eifell Tower
• Val-d’Isere
• Côte d’Azur
• Mont St Michael
• San Sebastian
• Vatican City
• Coloseum, Rome
• Cinque Terre
• Neuschwanstein, Germany
• Hallstatt, Austria
• Oktoberfest, Munich
• Stonehenge, UK
• Lake Lucerne, Switzerland
• Great Wall of China
• The Bund, Shanghai
• Terracotta Warriors, Xian
• Islands of Thailand
• Mount Everest
• Great Barrier Reef
• Macchu Picchu
• Manuel Antonio, Costa Rica
• The Caribbean islands
• Several US National Parks
• Pyramids of Giza, Cairo

Mass tourism is big business, quite literally. Mass tourism isn’t new, but our awareness of many of the negative impacts that it causes is relatively new. It is only in recent years that we have really started to understand the impacts of our actions and think in a more sustainable way.

As you can see, there are many mass tourism destinations all over the world. Are these destinations and the practices that they are adopting sustainable? Probably not.

It is imperative that we plan and manage our tourism industries in order to keep them alive. To learn more about how we can do this and about the importance of the mass tourism industry, I suggest that you consult the texts below.

• Overtourism – This book examines the evolution of the phenomenon and explores the genesis of overtourism and the system dynamics underlining it.
• Overtourism: Tourism Management and Solutions – Questioning the causes of this phenomenon, such as increased prosperity and mobility, technological development, issues of security and stigma for certain parts of the world and so on, this book supposes that better visitor management strategies and distribution of tourists can offset the negative impacts of ‘overtourism’.
• The Challenge of Overtourism – Working paper outlining the concept by Harold Goodwin.
• How to be a highly Sustainable Tourist: A Guidebook for the Conscientious Traveller – a great guide with tips on how to travel sustainably
• The Intrepid Traveler: The ultimate guide to responsible, ecological, and personal-growth travel and tourism – Leading travel expert Adam Rogers draws upon 40 years of experience exploring more than 130 countries in every region on Earth to share the smartest ways to travel in this tip-filled guide
• Outdoor Recreation: Environmental Impacts and Management – an academic text discussing the sustainability of outdoor pursuits
• Sustainable and Responsible Tourism: Trends, Practices and Cases – Sustainable tourism case studies from around the world
• Responsible Tourism: Using tourism for sustainable development – a textbook addressing the concept of sustainability in terms in development

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Can Boracay Beat Overtourism?

Called one of the world’s best islands, the Philippine resort was closed by the government for six months and reopened with a cap on visitors. Now, with travelers coming back, will it continue to hold the line?

Sunset on Boracay’s White Beach feels lively, but some worry it will tip back into being overcrowded. Credit... Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

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By Patrick Scott

• April 11, 2023

When the Philippine island of Boracay was in the rogues’ gallery of destinations marred by overtourism, large sections of its 2.5-mile main White Beach were jammed with thousands of visitors and long trains of beach beds and umbrellas. Fleets of boats motored up to the sand’s edge, and multitudes of peddlers sold trips and trinkets and gave massages, braided hair and applied henna tattoos right on the beach.

At night, a cacophony of music spilled from a phalanx of makeshift dining rooms in the sand, couches and cabanas unfurled toward the water, and fire spinners filled the air with flames and fumes.

Oil from the boats, litter from the beach and sewage illegally piped into the sea polluted the waters.

Early in 2018, however, then-President Rodrigo Duterte — known for his radical approaches — declared Boracay a “cesspool” and abruptly shut it down from April to October.

The government demolished or chopped off sections of several hundred hotels, restaurants and other businesses that had been built too close to the water and in forests and wetlands. It uprooted dozens of illegal sewer pipes along the beaches and upgraded the sewer system. It widened the notoriously clogged narrow roads and put in sidewalks. It devised a new promotion of Boracay as a sustainable ecotourism island rather than a 24/7 party ‌hot spot.

And in one of the rarest and most extreme responses to unbridled tourism growth, the national task force created to oversee the island imposed a limit on the number of visitors, setting the carrying capacity at 6,400 arrivals per day, or 19,215 tourists at any given time.

These days, the captivating White Beach is an open expanse of pristine sand, motorboats are confined to two floating docks and the aquamarine water has been cleaned up. Signs up and down the beach declare: NO STRUCTURES AND FURNITURE, NO DRINKING OF ALCOHOL, NO FIRE DANCING.

On a mid-February night, Tyler O’Dowd was part of a steady stream of tourists strolling on the sandy path up from the beach, pointing out to his ‌fiancée where the action used to be‌. The couple, on a four-day trip to celebrate Mr. O’Dowd’s 38th birthday, said they wouldn’t mind dining in the sand or a nightlife spot or two on the beach. Still, they said, they preferred the new vibe.

“I was younger back then so I liked the party lifestyle,” said Mr. O’Dowd, an American teacher living in Manila, referring to his first visit, in 2013. “Now I’m older so I do enjoy this mellowness.”

Few ‌hot spots across the globe have implemented caps on the number of visitors long-term, so it’s an open question as to whether this little island in the central Philippines, about an hour south of Manila by plane, can find a real and lasting solution to overtourism.

‌Islanders and local business owners said in interviews that they were generally pleased with the improvements to Boracay’s beaches and roads. But there was still debate over the carrying capacity.

Although a resolution by the national task force capped visitors, there was no provision for enforcement. So no one is in charge of limiting arrivals — not the airlines, not the boats that bring tourists from the main island of Panay, not the hotels on the island. According to the Malay-Boracay Tourism Office’s monthly tally of visitors, the number exceeded the cap in busy spring months in 2019 and again last spring. That prompted a new carrying capacity study by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (D.E.N.R.), which led the national task force, though its results have not yet been released.

In the coming months, the cap will surely be tested again. Flights are rapidly increasing at the nearby airports of Kalibo and Caticlan. And tourists from China and Korea — the biggest sources of visitors, accounting for 40 percent of tourists before the pandemic — are poised to return in the coming months.

What’s more, the national task force was dissolved in June 2022, and oversight of the island was returned to local government officials, some of whom want to lift some of the restrictions.

Dante Pagsuguiron, the longest-serving member of the Malay municipal council that includes Boracay, said in an interview in February that he’s opposed to any capacity cap and that the island could support triple the current 14,000 government-accredited hotel rooms. He supports bringing back beach beds and limited dining on the beach.

“To me, if there’s tourists coming to Boracay, regardless of the numbers, then we need to accept them,” Mr. Pagsuguiron said.

It’s unclear what will happen next. Mr. Pagsuguiron and others speculated that the D.E.N.R. study will raise the arrivals cap by 25 percent to 40 percent, allowing for up to 9,000 arrivals a day. The D.E.N.R. did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

In March the governor of the Aklan province that includes Boracay created a new oversight body for the island, the Boracay-Caticlan Sustainable Development Council, to sustain the gains of the rehabilitation. According to the province administrator, Selwyn Ibarreta, the new council has agreed that an independent entity should conduct another carrying capacity study.

Rehabilitation, then Covid

Boracay first became popular in the 1970s, when it appeared in a German guidebook and was the location of the war movie “Too Late the Hero.” By the 1990s, more than 100,000 backpackers and adventurers annually were visiting its beaches and forested hills. Locals opened dive shops, restaurants, ‌guesthouses and hotels. Big investors followed with resorts like the Shangri-La in private coves. Each year, it seemed, Boracay kept landing on best beaches and top islands lists. Tourism surged, nearing 1 million visitors in 2011 and double that by 2017.

Then came the abrupt shutdown, known as the rehabilitation.

Business owners were left without income, workers scrambled to find jobs and long-planned weddings and vacations were upended. Locals say the White Beach looked like a war zone from all the demolition. Like many businesses on the north end of the beach, the BAMA grill had to hack off a large beachfront section of its building to comply with the 33-yard setback from the high tide, and it had to knock off five inches of its street-side facade to make way for the road widening.

After six months, even though the demolition and road work was far from completed, the island ‌reopened to tourists in late October 2018. Arrivals the next year jumped back ‌to 2 million, just over half of them foreigners, but then evaporated again in early 2020 with the onslaught of Covid-19.

Boracay remained closed to foreigners during the pandemic for two years until early 2022, devastating the local economy. ‌

Many islands are especially susceptible to overtourism because of their fixed space and limited options for economic development. One of the key issues facing destinations is that “almost everyone making money out of tourists wants more of them and is not prepared to limit, let alone reduce, numbers,” according to “Overcoming Overtourism: A Review of Failure,” a 2022 report by the‌ academics and tourism experts Rachel Dodds and Richard Butler that looks at dozens of destinations around the world, ‌including Boracay‌.

“Wishful thinking about a smaller, greener tourism industry operating on a ‌noncapitalistic framework is likely to remain just that,” they conclude, “misplaced optimism.”

There is still some hope, they said in an email exchange. “Tourism is in a similar situation to climate change,” Dr. Butler wrote. “A lot of people agree there are problems, but few have realistic, acceptable (to most people) solutions, so a major change in general attitudes is needed.”

Smooth new roads and a cleaned-up beach

On a visit in mid-February, when daily arrivals averaged 5,750, the island felt pleasantly crowded, and the vast majority of tourists were Filipino. ‌

Boracay is just over 4 miles long and shaped like a dog bone, with the densest development along and behind the White Beach‌, which stretches 2.5 miles ‌along the west coast‌. White Beach is divided into three‌ main areas, known as stations, after the original boat landings. Development along the beach is agreeably low slung, with the height of buildings limited to three stories on the seafront. The other most popular sand-and-sea spots are on the east coast on Bulabog, one of the country’s top kitesurfing bays, and on the hilly north at Diniwid and Puka beaches.

The vibe on the island fluctuates ‌depending on where you are: ‌It’s serene on the sun-baked, lightly populated southernmost Station 3‌ section. It’s hectic in the center at Station 2, which is crammed with resorts and the D’Mall open-air shopping and dining complex. ‌And then it’s picturesque on the northern end at Station 1, with a few hundred people strolling the sand at sunset watching little sailboats glide across the flat blue sea.

The smooth, new road with brick sidewalks running up the spine of the island bustles with families, couples and groups of friends and a steady convoy of electric, three-wheeled motorbike buggies. But the road ‌is also blighted with dingy, shuttered restaurants and intermittent metal walls hiding abandoned or demolished buildings.

On the White Beach at night, I could enjoy myriad international cuisines and listen to live music ranging from Queen covers to duos crooning Adele‌. I was also repeatedly offered menus by polite waiters and propositioned by male and female prostitutes: “Hi, sir. Massage?”

‌The seven hotels of one of the island’s biggest resort chains, the Henann Group , ‌ were more than 80 percent full in February, mostly with Filipinos, said Dindo Salazar, a vice president of Henann’s operations on Boracay. He was expecting the return of Chinese tourists in the second quarter and saw a conundrum in carrying capacity: If local officials allow too many people on the island, the worry is that the national government could step back in and take over, he said.

Mr. Salazar is also the chairman of the Boracay Foundation, a tourism business group, which objected to the 2018 closure and capacity limit. The Foundation argued that only owners who violated the setback and sewer rules should be penalized and that the 14,000 government-approved hotels could accommodate thousands more tourists than the 19,215 limit set by the task force.

In the end, Mr. Salazar said, the closure was good for the island, because local laws that were long flouted were being enforced, including the beach setback, sewer hookups and a ban on single-use plastics.

“There was a free-for-all to get as many on the island without regard to impact,” Mr. Salazar said, “and now there is control.”

Part of the island’s plan to alleviate overcrowding is to make other parts of Boracay besides White Beach more attractive to visitors. At the mile-long Bulabog Beach on the east coast, the sole resort, Aqua Boracay, was considering starting a yacht service to bring guests directly to the bay, said Krista Tudtud, a sales and marketing manager.

“What we are trying to do here is to disperse the crowd, because most of the people, when they say Boracay, the only thing that they remember is the White Beach,” Ms. Tudtud said as scores of arcing kite surfers crisscrossed the clear shallow bay. “But there’s also a hidden gem on this side that we want to introduce to guests.”

Just down the new brick promenade, surfers traded stories at Habagat Kitebording’s open-air bar. The German owner, Winnie Levai, opened the first kiting school on the island in 2002, and within a few years the sport took off with about 10 schools, he said.

In 2018, his business was among the dozens on Bulabog targeted to be partly or entirely torn down. “I had all the legal papers to build,” he said. “So it was a kind of shock.”

Mr. Levai had to demolish his school and restaurant in the sand and move them back at a cost of $200,000, though his 10-room hotel was outside the 33-yard buffer. He said he’s pleased with the brick walkway and wider road out back, but ‌said that five years on, the rehabilitation and the quest to find the right balance of tourists on the little island are ongoing.

“My hope is that they do a good job, keep going on the situation and that they can finish it in a proper way,” ‌he said.

Patrick Scott writes frequently for Travel. Follow him on Instagram: @patrickrobertscott

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Reinventing tourism to prepare for mass travel: Inquirer

MANILA (PHILIPPINE DAILY INQUIRER) - After almost two years of travel restrictions, the Philippines finally reopened its doors on Feb 10 to international tourists.

More than 7,000 visitors have since arrived from countries like the United States, Australia, China, and Japan as of last week - a mix of returning tourists, balikbayans, and revenge travellers.

Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo Puyat said stakeholders in the tourism industry were ecstatic over the government's decision to reopen the country's international borders to fully vaccinated tourists.

The reopening is expected to boost the tourism sector which took a beating when the government imposed severe lockdowns in 2020.

In 2019, before the pandemic, the country welcomed 8.26 million visitors but numbers fell by as much as 82 per cent in 2020 to 1.48 million (2021 figures are expected to be released in June).

This severely impacted the industry: tourism's share to the gross domestic product fell to 5.4 per cent in 2020 from 12.8 per cent in 2019; the average share over the past five years has been at 10.5 per cent. In the process, about 1.1 million tourism-related jobs were lost.

Given this low base, economists are predicting a strong rebound for the sector as the world begins to open up again.

Tourism workers, many of them idle during the lockdowns and therefore no income, welcomed the news.

In Intramuros, Manila, a kutsero was preparing the few horses he had left, while a tourist boat worker in Loboc River, Bohol, was hopeful that, finally, they would not have to operate at a loss.

Officials believe that bringing back international tourists would have a multiplier effect on other industries such as agriculture and fisheries as demand for their products will increase.

" Masaya sila na finally bukas na, ibig sabihin , everything is going back to normal," Ms Puyat said.

But should things really return to pre-pandemic normal?

The study, "Bootstrapping tourism post-Covid-19: A systems thinking approach" published in September 2021, said the tourism industry should use the pandemic as an opportunity to "reinvent and rectify" old models and move toward sustainable tourism.

To do this it proposed a three-fold strategy: 1) less emphasis on destination and more on the value chain by tapping into the resources of local communities (accommodation, attractions, transport, food and beverage, souvenirs, etc.) to offer a unique travel experience to tourists; 2) customise services and split to smaller tour groups to help lessen community and environmental disturbances; and 3) focus on quality over quantity, or smaller segments instead of mass-based travel.

Mass tourism, while it gave more jobs and boosted related businesses, also undoubtedly brought headaches such as traffic, overcrowding, garbage, destruction of cultural spots and natural habitats, and with little benefit to local communities that had to bear the brunt of higher real estate prices and more expensive cost of living.

Philippine destinations have not been spared from these problems, a few examples: rapid development in Boracay has disturbed the habitat of endangered species such as flying foxes and fruit bats on the island; and garbage in Baguio City, the country's summer capital, has continued to mount even during the pandemic.

In addition, Super typhoon "Odette" devastated top tourist destinations Siargao, Cebu, and Palawan last December, affecting the planned reopening of resorts and other establishments.

To address these numerous problems, conservationists have appealed for the protection of the remaining beach forests in Boracay, while Baguio City is mulling the imposition of a garbage tax on tourists.

As for Odette-devastated areas, the government has extended low interest and collateral-free loans to affected businesses to help them rebuild and reopen.

Rebuilding, however, is not enough if it means merely propping up the old system instead of reinventing it to adapt to the new normal.

At least the Department of Tourism, under Puyat's helm, appears to be on the right track.

Over the past two years, it focused on strengthening domestic travel by developing tourism circuits such as outdoor/open spaces (bike lanes, farms, wellness), and nature destinations with emphasis on high-quality experiences to cater to new-normal travelers.

The department poured resources into its Covid-19 tourism response and recovery plan: crafting health protocols from scratch, trying to keep the industry afloat by helping workers and business owners, and laying the groundwork for what lies ahead post-pandemic including concerns about the environment and the sector's recovery.

Sustainability, Puyat said, remains key. Her challenge to the next tourism secretary: "Adopt it or make it better."

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Overtourism: Lessons from Boracay Island, The Philippines

July 16, 2019 •

5 min reading

In 2018, so-called overtourism has begun to emerge as a serious and dangerous phenomenon. Various cities, cultural heritage sites, recreational areas and islands have been affected by this phenomenon. Overtourism is often associated with extremely crowded tourism destinations and has become a topic of great concern for all stakeholders. According to the UN World Tourism Organization , ‘overtourism’ is: the impact of tourism on a destination, or parts thereof, that excessively influences perceived quality of life of citizens and/or quality of visitors’ experiences in a negative way . As a result, tourism experts are—by and large—at a loss as to how to cope with both the increasing tourist numbers and tourism’s multifaceted impacts on these destinations.

Boracay Island shut to visitors for rehabilitation

Boracay Island, in the Philippines, is an excellent example of this phenomenon. Tripadvisor named Boracay one of the top 25 most beautiful beaches in the world and the 7 th in Asia. The tiny—a mere 10km2!—island hosted over 2 million tourists in 2017, a ratio of 66 tourists for every resident . Tourism became so present on the island that an unusual decision was taken by the Philippines' President Dutarte in April 2018. He decided to close Boracay for six months. Using the President’s own words, the island had become a cesspool that needed immediate action from political authorities.

What led to this situation?

As previously mentioned, Boracay had become one of the most visited tropical islands in Asia. Nevertheless, rampant tourism growth, dating back to the 1970s, resulted in unplanned infrastructural and tourism management practices. Until the 1990s, the island’s visitors tended to be individual backpackers. The economic benefits they generated led, however, to increasingly intensive tourism dynamics (e.g., hotels and restaurants were built) but also growing quality-of-life aspirations from residents.

In addition to the intensification of tourism activities and poorly planned environmental infrastructure, the negative socioeconomic impacts on the indigenous population contributed to Boracay becoming both uncontrolled and uncontrollable. Pollution, partly due to the lack of a proper sewage system, became a major issue on the island. At some beaches, for instance, the water contained faecal coliform (e. coli) levels that were 47 times higher than the acceptable levels. This posed serious health risks for locals and tourists alike.  

A new tourism strategy

The sudden decision to shutter the island for tourism in February 2018 was very harsh for the locals who depend heavily on tourism. The main idea behind the decision was to use the hiatus to clean up the environment, improve hotels’ sewage treatment systems, and to develop a tourism strategy that guarantees a sustainable future for the island. Hence, Boracay re-opened on October 26, 2018 with a new strategy that intends to restrict tourism to make it more sustainable.

These rules are as follows:

• Quota on tourist visits based on the island’s carrying capacity (only 6,405 tourists per day can land on the island).
• New regulations regarding tourists’ attitudes and behavior (e.g., smoking and drinking alcohol are forbidden on White beach, the most visited beach on the island) 
• New regulations regarding locals’ attitudes and behavior (e.g. raising pigs or chickens for a living is forbidden).
• Only the hotels compliant with the requirements of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources and the Department of the Interior and Local Government, and accredited by the Department of Tourism, can open again. Tourists can only come to the island if they reserve a room at one of these hotels.
• All hotels must be connected to a proper sewage treatment system.
• Road widening project to resolve congestion issues.
• Trash and unauthorized buildings will be removed from the wetlands.
• Buildings within 30 meters of the shoreline will be destroyed.
• Gambling is forbidden on the island.

These regulations, assuming compliance is widespread, should enable tourism on Boracay Island to become more sustainable. But what has really happened since the reopening?

Towards a more sustainable Boracay Island?

It seems to be working for the time being. These limits on Boracay Island have resulted in more sustainable tourism practices since its reopening in October 2018. Compliance with the maximum carrying capacity has been satisfactory and the Civil Aeronautics Board issued, in April 2019, a reminder to the airlines asking them to follow the government’s visitor limit. Only 353 establishments are allowed to provide accommodations, which is much lower than before the closure in April 2018. Tourism demand is being met without exceeding the infrastructural carrying capacity of the island. In April 2019, the Department of Tourism launched the campaign #MoreFunForever, promoting a brand of tourism that is far more sustainable and inclusive.

The lone caveat however has been the government’s failure to provide a solution for the workers and residents who lost their jobs after October 2019. The protest movement, We Are Boracay, composed of mostly vendors, tricycle drivers, masseuses, tour guides and other workers in the informal sector, calls for solutions from the government.

If the political decision of closing the island works, other destinations might take it as an example to follow. With 1.4 billion international tourist arrivals in the world in 2018, an increasing number of destinations face or will face the phenomenon of overtourism.

References:

Burgos, N. P. (2015). Oil, grease decreasing in Boracay but they exceed standards–DENR. URL: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/671458/oilgrease-decreasing-in-boracay-but-they-exceed-standards-denr-2 . Retrieved on 27.5.2019

De Vera, A. (2019). DOT lists 353 accommodation establishments in Boracay.

UNWTO. (2018). ‘Overtourism’? Understanding and Managing Urban Tourism Growth beyond Perceptions. Retrieved from: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284420070

UNWTO. (2019). International tourist arrivals reach 1.4 billion two years ahead of forecasts. Retrieved from: http://www2.unwto.org/press-release/2019-01-21/international-tourist-arrivals-reach-14-billion-two-years-ahead-forecasts

Zabal, B. R. B. (2018). Boracay still among top 25 beaches in the world. Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/life-and-style/travel/ph-travel/197300-boracay-beach-top-world-tripadvisor-2018

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The return of Chinese tourists restores hope in the Philippines’ tourism industry

When the Chinese government made the decision to relax its pandemic restrictions and allow for travel abroad again, tourism professionals in the Philippines welcomed the news, but concerns linger about the expected increase in mass tourism.

• By Ashley Westerman

White Sand beach on Boracay Island, in the Philippines. 

When the Chinese government earlier this month made the decision to relax its pandemic restrictions and allow for travel abroad again, countries that are heavily dependent on Chinese tourism dollars were immediately buoyed.

In the Philippines, where 12% of the economy is tourism-dependent and Chinese tourists were the second-largest market pre-pandemic , the news came as a relief. 

The arrival of Chinese tourists “will greatly help us in our effort to transform and recover the tourism industry,” Philippine Tourism Secretary Christina Garcia Frasco told reporters last week when the first plane of Chinese visitors arrived at the Manila airport.

“Our intention is not only to regain our pre-pandemic numbers, but to exceed it,” she said.

‘We are hoping the Chinese will come’

Tourism workers on Boracay Island, the Philippines’ most popular vacation destination, are working hard to prepare for the influx of travelers this year. 

Known for its glistening white sand beach, gorgeous sunsets and incredible diving, Boracay saw more than 2 million visitors in 2019, according to the government. 

But once the pandemic hit, virtually no one made any money for about two years.

“Maybe we lost, like 80% [of revenue],” Ga Arboleda, manager of DiveGuru’s boutique hotel, restaurant and dive shop said.

She added that once the pandemic took hold, many of her approximately 30 employees wanted to go back to the mainland. So for nearly two years, only she, her husband, their daughter and a couple of other employees ran the business, which barely survived, thanks to the few tourists stranded on Boracay, a special permit they received from the government to stay open and some one-off contracts to teach diving lessons.

“In 2020, we are already happy to get like 500 tourists in Boracay every month,” she said. “It just started to pick up again in the last part of 2021.”

That’s when Filipinos started traveling domestically again. The Philippine tourism industry is primarily fueled by domestic travelers, so once the country started loosening its harsh pandemic restrictions, experts say people launched into revenge travel mode after being cooped up for nearly two years.

In 2022, the Philippine government allowed foreign visitors back into the country and things improved further for the badly battered sector. The provincial government reports that tourism in the Philippines in Aklan Province jumped over 400% between 2021 and 2022.

Arboleda has high hopes for this year. “[From] the tourism point of view, we are hoping the Chinese will come.”

Chinese mass tourism 

Phoebe Areno, a tourism official with Aklan Province, said tourism in the region is projected to grow more than 100% in 2023. Between Jan. 1 to Jan. 22 of this year alone, she said, over 125,000 tourists have arrived with a little more than 28% from abroad.

“We are assuming that in the first quarter we are going to receive flights coming in from mainland China,” she said.

The Philippines is banking on Chinese visitors so much that a tourism deal to boost relations with China was signed when the Philippines President Bongbong Marcos visited Beijing earlier this month.

The pandemic paralyzed the Philippines’ burgeoning tourism industry, John Paolo Rivera, the associate director of the Andrew Tan Center for Tourism at the Asian Institute of Management, said. “Because of it, revenues were almost zero.”

So, the potential of Chinese tourists to the Philippines cannot be undermined, he said — and this has specifically to do with the way Chinese tourists travel.

“They go by mass tourism. A huge, huge amount of tourists, and they come by buses, in ships, in planes,” Rivera said.

“But then they’re also characterized as tourists who absolutely spend [a lot] whenever they go to a country, because they spend so much on entertainment and luxury items.”

Pre-pandemic, Chinese tourists racked up some $255 billion in spending and accounted for almost 20% of tourists globally, according to the United Nations’ World Tourism Organization. For Southeast Asia, especially, data for 2019 shows  that before the pandemic, Chinese tourists were the leading source of foreign travelers for the region — making up about a quarter of all tourists.

“So, the arrival of the Chinese, yes, it gives hope,” he said.

COVID concerns

Still, Rivera and other experts say the Philippines should be cautious of the impact an increase in foreign tourists will inevitably have — particularly when it comes to the environment and the ongoing pandemic. 

Dive shop manager Ga Arboleda laughed nervously when asked if she had any concerns about the expected increase in travelers.

“Well, because we don’t know [if] that virus, again, will arrive if we open the border already to all the people,” she said.

“I’m also thinking about what will happen if we get a new variant and then the vaccine we have will not shield us from that kind of variant.”

Since the start of the pandemic, the Philippines has logged more than 4 million cases of COVID-19 and nearly 66,000 people have died. In preparation for more travelers from China this year, the Department of Health has called for “heightened surveillance” of visitors from there.

Still, only proof of vaccination is required upon arrival in the Philippines for foreign travelers, or a negative COVID-19 test if the traveler is unvaccinated. And even though almost 94% of Filipinos are vaccinated, health experts say, with new variants of the coronavirus on the horizon, more booster shots are still needed.

Trying to make a living and keep her beloved employees safe and healthy is a difficult balance act, said Arboleda, who arranged last week for all of her employees to get their second booster shots. 

“Most of our employees are two years or up to 21 years with us, so we really treat each other as a family,” she said.

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The perils of overtourism

By Mark Louis F. Ferrolino Special Features Writer

The Philippines, which boasts of a colorful history and culture, rich biodiversity and stunning attractions, has continued to become one of the top tourist destinations around the world, recording up to 6.6 million of foreign tourist arrivals in 2017, according to the Department of Tourism (DoT).

Although the flourishing tourism sector may be good for the economy — opening employment opportunities for many Filipinos — the massive influx of tourists, on the other hand, has been resulting to negative consequences. There are certain destinations in the country that have become a victim of overdevelopment and overcrowding that lead to the destruction of the environment and deterioration of local residents’ quality of life.

Boracay and Baguio, for a long time, have been the face of Philippine tourism. These two destinations have captured many tourists with its alluring beauty and exceptional culture. As the number of visitors increases, more establishments were put up, infrastructure projects were rolled out, and expansion of commercial spaces took place. These, in no doubt, encourage more tourists to visit these destinations, up to the point where these places became too crowded.

“I think it became an issue because of the failure of the local government units (LGUs) to enforce the prescribed environmental, ecological laws. A lot of the problems being experienced now in the overcrowding is due to the non-implementation of the law,” DoT Assistant Secretary Frederick M. Alegre told BusinessWorld in a phone interview.

Mr. Alegre noted that when tourists observe the existing laws are not properly implemented by the authority, there’s a tendency for it to be abused or overlooked by them.

Ten years ago, Baguio was a peaceful and slow-moving city. One of Baguio’s local residents, Janikka C. Tabbada, told BusinessWorld , in an online message, that back then, they could still go out [in their streets] during peak season without worrying about the traffic, safety and overcrowding.

“Parks were more beautiful back then… There were few cases of crimes, so residents rarely worry about getting their phones or any valuables being snatched. There were less businesses that catered to tourists, less cafes, restaurants and shops. There were less people of course, but Baguio people then were generally simple, courteous and calm,” Ms. Tabbada said when asked about how’s Baguio City 10 years ago.

She added that the tourism of Baguio during that time started to boom, yet it did not affect the lifestyle of the residents. Today, she said it’s different — pollution and traffic in the city become worse, and residents are now worried about going to work and school as they may be caught in traffic.

Boracay has been facing the same fate. Decades ago, the island was a quiet, subdued and lovely paradise, accommodating number of tourists that is just ideal to its carrying capacity.

Recently, the world-renowned island made headlines when President Rodrigo R. Duterte threatened to shut down Boracay due to violation of environmental law. The problem has been a long time issue, according to Nenette A. Graf, owner of the Boracay Beach Resort and president of the island’s biggest business organization Boracay Foundation Incorporated (BFI). She shared that the island is facing the same problems on sewerage system and solid waste even before.

“We welcome our President Duterte’s order to DENR (Department of Environment and Natural Resources) of six months deadline to fix Boracay. We’ve been waiting for this attention from the government for more than 10 years now,” Ms. Graf said in an online message.

Ms. Graf said that currently, Boracay has “horrendous traffic, more vehicles, taller hotels, less coconuts and greens.” She added, “Forests are now converted into hotels to accommodate more visitors.”

Destruction in environment, culture and quality of life in Baguio and Boracay, caused by overcrowding and non-compliance of environmental laws are not just exclusive to these destinations. They are just a representation of other tourist destinations in the country being overused and abused.

The national government through the office of the DoT are looking for ways to resolve these issues. Mr. Alegre said they are working closely with the LGUs, local stakeholders and other government agencies to ensure the sustainability of tourist destinations in the country, especially in Baguio and Boracay.

While they are still on the process of resolving the issue, the LGUs, on the other hand, have to play their role, he said. “The LGU has to be able to react, has to be able to redirect traffic. It must be able to regulate hotels and facilities, it must be able to enforce the law that disallows construction in areas that are not prescribed. And this again is a concern the LGU must step up and help us achieve a balance between the tourist and development of areas like Baguio.”

“The Philippines has a long coastline, which is in Mindanao, in the Visayas and Luzon. If we are able to promote these aggressively — the other alternative destinations — then we’re also able to decongest the (overcrowded) destinations,” Mr. Alegre added.

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Where to Go in the Philippines 2024 | Best Tourist Spots

15. Calle Crisologo, Vigan

14. nacpan beach, el nido, 13. tubbataha reef, palawan, 12. mayon volcano, albay, bicol, 11. intramuros and fort santiago, manila, 10. taal volcano and lake, tagaytay, and batangas, 9. kawasan falls, cebu, 8. kayangan lake, coron, palawan, 7. rizal park, manila, 6. banaue rice terraces, ifugao.

• 5. Cebu’s Beaches and Diving Spots

4. Cloud 9, Siargao

3. puerto princesa underground river, palawan, 2. chocolate hills, bohol, 1. white beach, boracay.

If tropical islands, beautiful landscapes, and unending adventures are on your bucket list for a holiday trip, then you have found a gem of a destination with the Philippines.

The Philippines has over 7,000 islands and is the perfect getaway to experience a mix of nature, culture, and fun. The geographical features of the Philippines ensure that there are natural attractions wherever you go. Whether you're headed to Luzon tourist spots , Visayas tourist spots , or  Mindanao tourist spots , expect beautiful sights, unique attractions, friendly locals, and memorable experiences.

The best beaches in the Philippines , idyllic islands in turquoise waters, the world’s most perfect cone volcano , the second smallest primate, world-class surfing spots, and centuries-old Spanish fortresses—these are but some of the attractions awaiting you on your Philippine holiday.

• Explore a wide selection of island hopping in the Philippines and other  Philippine tours  for your trip
• Read our guide on getting around the Philippines
• See the requirements to rent a car in the Philippines

With all the destinations and experiences the Philippines offers, creating an itinerary may be daunting, especially for first-time visitors. 

To help out, we have listed down the best places to visit in the Philippines.

See our popular Best Philippines Itinerary Tour Packages

5-day nature & islands adventure package to puerto princesa and el nido palawan, 4-day fascinating culture & nature tour package to cebu & bohol with accommodations & transfers, scenic 1-week beaches & nature vacation package to cebu, puerto princesa & el nido palawan.

Read on to find out which top tourist destinations in the Philippines you should not miss on this trip of a lifetime!

Travel back in time as you stroll along the streets of Calle Crisologo in Vigan  as part of your Ilocos itinerary . This 16th-century town, a UNESCO World Heritage Site  and a popular tourist spot in the Philippines, quietly boasts old-world charm and Spanish colonial architecture and is the top attraction in Vigan, Ilocos tours  and one of the top  historical landmarks in the Philippines . 

The town famous for its Calle Crisologo tour has successfully managed to preserve the historic district where you can still find calesas (horse-drawn carriages). Sample the famous and delicious Ilocos empanada and walk along cobbled streets lined with souvenir shops selling pottery and Abel Iloko weaves. These are among the many  things to see and do when in Vigan .

• Check out our list of the best hotels in Vigan  and the top Vigan tours

The best time to visit for  Calle Crisologo tours  is during the first week of May when the town celebrates the Vigan Festival of the Arts, one of the festivals in the Philippines . 

See our popular Vigan Tours and Activities

El Nido in Palawan is most famous for its paradise-like islands and lagoons, but a 45-minute ride from its main town takes you to another idyllic destination: Nacpan Beach. 

Island hopping escapades in El Nido , including a visit to El Nido Big Lagoon and other top Palawan beaches should not be missed. But after a jam-packed day of visiting coves, white-sand beaches in El Nido , limestone cliffs, and other El Nido Palawan tourist spots , a trip to Nacpan Beach is highly recommended. 

The main attraction is its 4-kilometer shoreline with golden sand and endless palm trees lining up, perfect for just bumming around. Calitang Beach sits on the other side, and the two beaches form what is now popularly known as the Twin Beaches of El Nido.

• Browse our list of the best hotels and resorts in El Nido  and  El Nido tour packages

Visitors are not advised to swim far away from shore in Nacpan as currents tend to become strong and rough with little warning.

If you're looking for budget-friendly accommodations in El Nido, check out our collection of El Nido hostels . 

See our popular El Nido Tours and Activities

Private el nido palawan lio airport to or from any el nido town hotel transfer service, palawan el nido shared island hopping tour a with lunch & transfers | secret lagoon, shimizu island, private puerto princesa airport to or from el nido town transfer service.

Tubbataha Reef is regarded as one of the  top diving spots in the Philippines , and, perhaps, the world. Located at the heart of the Sulu Sea, it is considered a center of marine biodiversity and a haven not just for divers but marine conservationists as well. The only way to get to this marine sanctuary is through a liveaboard vessel from Puerto Princesa, Palawan. 

The access may be challenging, but it is probably what is keeping the Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park teeming with some of the most unique underwater life in the world. It is listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site and was nominated as part of the “New Seven Wonders of the Natural World.”

Among the species that call Tubbataha home are reef sharks, manta rays, Napoleon wrasses, and more than half of all the world's coral species. One of its islets is also a breeding site for birds and marine turtles.

Tubbataha reef diving requires months or even years of planning, but experiencing the staggering wealth underneath is more than worth it.

See our popular Philippine Scuba Diving Packages & Courses

As soon as your flight lands at the airport in Bicol International Airport of Albay province, the world’s most perfect volcanic cone and the most active volcano in the Philippines greets you with its majesty. Mayon Volcano is one of the most beautiful places to visit in the Philippines and is a top attraction in any  Bicol tour .

Its sheer beauty (the name Mayon comes from the Bicolano word ‘magayon,’ which means beautiful) hides a violent core, with past eruptions that flattened several towns.

• Read our article on travel insurance in the Philippines

One of the top natural landmarks in the Philippines and one of the most-visited tourist spots in Albay , it is already a wonderful experience seeing the volcano from afar. But if you are an adrenaline junkie, you can soak up all its beauty while gliding through a zipline in Lignon Hill or going on a Mayon Volcano tour via a Mayon ATV ride in Bicol. Visit the Cagsawa Ruins for another unique and historic viewing point of the Mayon Volcano.

As a bonus, from Legazpi, you can take a side trip to Donsol, where you can enjoy swimming with whale sharks in their natural habitat.

See our popular Mayon Volcano Tours

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Take a stroll through history lane within the walled city of Intramuros in Manila , one of the top landmarks in the Philippines. This 64-hectare Spanish fortress was erected by Miguel Lopez de Legazpi and was destroyed by the end of World War II.

• Book Manila hotels  or serviced apartments in Metro Manila for your trip
• Read our article on the best buffets in Manila

Another Intramuros attraction is Fort Santiago, a citadel that served as headquarters for armies and foreign powers. It is a historically significant site where the national hero, Dr. Jose Rizal, was imprisoned before his execution. 

You can learn more about its history when you go on trips to Fort Santiago . You can also go on a  guided bamboo bike tour or ride a horse-drawn carriage to explore Intramuros' historic walls.

Cap off your trip with a meal or drink at some of the finest Filipino restaurants inside Intramuros. One popular establishment is Barbara’s, where you can enjoy traditional Filipino cuisine buffet-style while being treated to a cultural show.

See our popular Intramuros Tours

Locals and foreign visitors from Manila often take a quick escape from the megacity and make their way south to  Tagaytay , a relaxing town famous for its cool weather, magnificent views, and many tourist spots . It's popular for being one of the best kid-friendly places near Manila .

The best Tagaytay hotels  have a view that faces Taal Volcano, one of the world’s smallest active volcanoes. The volcano sits on an island within a lake within an island. 

Since hikes to the crater are no longer allowed, head to  Tagaytay restaurants ,  Tagaytay cafes , or Tagaytay hotels with a view of Taal. While in Tagaytay and Batangas, heat up your trip with a delectable bowl of Bulalo, a clear broth with beef shanks, bone marrow, and corn.

• Check out our list of the best Tagaytay hotels with Taal Volcano views
• Experience a Tagaytay Taal Lake boat ride
• Book a Tagaytay City tour from Manila
• Check out our list of the best farm resorts near Manila ,  best beach resorts near Manila , and the top affordable resorts near Manila
• Browse our list of resorts in Batangas

See our popular Tagaytay Tours and Activities

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If you like jumping into or swimming in cool cascading waters, Kawasan Falls in  Cebu hits the sweet spot. It is a multi-layered waterfall in the town of Badian and is best known for its turquoise waters.

With a height of 40 meters, the first cascade is where most visitors stay, swim, and enjoy a natural water massage on board a bamboo raft. A 10-minute trek takes you up to the quieter second cascade.

• Find and book the best Cebu hotels
• Check out other top Cebu tours you can try

Kawasan Falls is also the endpoint of the popular adventure activity,  Kawasan Falls canyoneering . This tour starts in Kanlaob River in the town of Alegria. You'll make your way to Kawasan, swimming along streams, rappelling through natural rock walls, and finally jumping off mini-waterfalls.

Nearby is the town of  Moalboal , famous for its  sardine run experience , where you swim with millions of sardines just offshore.

See our popular Kawasan Falls Tours

Undoubtedly one of the most photographed and iconic destinations in the Philippines is Kayangan Lake in  Coron , Palawan. Going on a Kayangan Lake Coron tour  will allow you to see its lagoon that is a dreamy mix of blues and greens glistening on a bright, sunny day. It should definitely be on your Coron Palawan itinerary .

• Check out our Coron tour packages and other things to see and do in Coron
• Read our guide on diving in Coron
• Browse our list of the  best hotels and resorts in Coron

Kayangan Lake tours will take you to the jagged limestone cliffs and islets surrounding the lake. All these add up to a dramatic landscape, best seen from a 10-minute climb up a hill. Curiously, this view is not of the actual Kayangan Lake but the area where the tour boats park, but it is still breathtaking nonetheless.

As spectacular as the views are above ground, the real gem is hidden underneath the lake’s glass-like waters. Rock formations and schools of fish abound, making the area a favorite snorkeling and free-diving spot for visitors and one of the most popular Coron Palawan tourist spots .

The island destination is also famous for  island-hopping in Coron  and  C oron wreck diving , among many other must-try  Coron tours . It's also a romantic destination and is a popular location for vacation packages for couples .

See our popular Coron Tours and Activities

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Many travelers skip  Manila and make their way to the Philippines' other islands, but a day or two in the country’s capital to go on  Manila tours is still highly recommended, especially for those looking for the best places in the Philippines for a family vacation .

• Check out our list of the best  private resorts near Manila

This 60-hectare urban park is where you will see the Rizal Monument, marking the execution site of the country’s national hero, Dr. Jose Rizal. Manila Bay’s breeze keeps the Philippine flag waving from a 46-meter flagpole fronting his monument.

The park also features manicured gardens, ponds, and a wide water fountain that lights up and dances to Filipino tunes at sunset. The park area is also home to a network of  National Museums that you can visit .

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See our popular Manila Tours & Activities

Hand-chiseled some 2,000 years ago, the Banaue Rice Terraces in  Banaue of Ifugao, North Luzon , is a remarkable destination and is truly one of the most beautiful places in the Philippines and regarded as one of the Philippines' iconic landmarks. 

Sit in a colorful jeepney as it cruises along winding roads in Banaue, and views of dramatic mud-walled rice terraces leave you in awe.

The Ifugao people were highly skilled in carving both wood and mountainsides. The Banaue Rice Terraces is listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site . It offers spectacular views of emerald hues during the rice-growing seasons of April-May and October-November.

• Check out our list of things to do in Baguio  and our Baguio tour packages
• See  Baguio hotels that you can book for your trip 

Banaue and its many natural attractions may pack a lot of tourists so you can make your way further to quieter Batad Rice Terraces and take a quick dip at its mighty Tappiya waterfalls. You can also explore nearby  Baguio City or  pick fresh strawberries in La Trinidad, Benguet .

See our popular North Luzon Tour Packages

5. cebu’s beaches and diving spots.

Cebu has been declared part of UNESCO’s Network of Creative Cities, but its main treasure lies deep down. The island draws over two million foreign travelers every year, who are greeted by rich waters teeming with abundant marine life. There are also many Cebu hotels that you can book for your trip. 

Diving in Cebu is also a great experience as the island boasts many beautiful  Cebu diving spots , featuring underwater caves, shallow shipwrecks, and marine sanctuaries.

• Browse our list of the best beachfront resorts in Cebu  and the top Cebu tourist spots
• Check out our Cebu tour packages with airfare  and our Mactan Island tours
• Explore other islands in the Visayas region. Check out our Bacolod-Iloilo-Guimaras itinerary
• See other  Cebu tours you can add to your itinerary

Cebu island hopping tours are popular, thanks to the  beaches of Cebu ,  Mactan , Camotes, and  Bantayan Island . Moalboal island hopping tours are also available for those who want to explore more of Cebu. Off the northernmost tip of Cebu, tiny  Malapascua Island packs many surprises, including diving with thresher sharks. Apart from diving in Malapascua , you can also go on a sardine run tour . For a hassle-free experience, book Malapascua diving packages .

See our popular Cebu Diving Courses and Packages

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Siargao ’s rise as a top tourist destination in the Philippines is nothing short of meteoric. Once a sleepy island in Surigao del Norte, it has become one of the favorite destinations and playgrounds for travelers, and it is primarily because of one activity: surfing.

It is now known as the Philippines'  surfing capital , and some even regard it as the surfing mecca of Asia.

• See our list of  Siargao private tours
• Read our article on the best resorts in Siargao
• Check out other rainy season activities in the Philippines
• Find other  Siargao experiences  and Siargao tour packages

Surfers are drawn to Cloud 9, the most famous surfing spot in the entire country and a must in any visitor's Siargao itinerary . From November until April, all is well with Cloud 9’s thick tubes, making it a perfect place to get stoked (note: it is recommended for advanced surfers only).

But you do not need to go surfing in Siargao  to enjoy this island destination as there are also other  Siargao tourist spots  to visit, like rock pools, waterfalls, and the nearby Sohoton Lagoon, where you can swim with thousands of non-sting jellyfish. You can go island hopping in Siargao to visit some of its natural attractions, including Sugba Lagoon , Naked Island , Daku Island , and Guyam Island .

See our popular Siargao Tours and Activities

The gateway to the Philippines’ Last Frontier,  Palawan , is its capital  Puerto Princesa . It is here that you can find the world’s longest navigable underground river and a UNESCO World Heritage Site , the  Puerto Princesa Underground River or the Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park. To explore this world-famous attraction and one of the best Philippine caves , book a Puerto Princesa underground river tour. 

Paddleboats of the  Puerto Princesa underground river tours  cruise through scenic limestone cliffs as they make their way through the accessible area (1.5 km) of the underground river cave.

• Find the best Puerto Princesa hotels for your trip
• See other things to do in Puerto Princesa
• Check out other  Puerto Princesa activities that you can do
• Read our article on Port Barton resorts

The park is also teeming with wildlife like crab-eating monkeys, monitor lizards, and bats.  Island hopping escapades in Honda Bay and a visit to the Crocodile Farm are also highly recommended among the many  things to do in Puerto Princesa .

See our popular Puerto Princesa Underground River Tours

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Included in the UNESCO World Heritage Natural Monuments list, the Chocolate Hills of  Bohol are a geomorphic wonder and truly a sight to behold. It is one of the amazing tourist spots in the Philippines to offer a unique landscape, with its 1,268 cone-shaped hills that turn chocolatey brown during the dry season, hence its name.

The limestone hills in this iconic Philippine landmark vary in size but almost look similar in shape and range from 30 to 120 meters in height. It’s a must-add to any itinerary for  Bohol trips .

Make your way to the town of Carmen, where the Chocolate Hills Main Viewpoint can be found. You can also see the hills via Chocolate Hills tours or  Bohol countryside tours . Aside from the Chocolate Hills, there is also a treasure chest of natural wonders and other fun  things to do in Bohol , including a relaxing Loboc river cruise  and exploring Balicasag Island, a popular Bohol diving spot . You can also go on  Panglao Island tours , and  Philippine Tarsier Sanctuary visits , where you can see the world’s second-smallest primate. At night you can visit Abatan River and see some of the rarest fireflies in the Philippines .

• Read our article on the best  resorts in Bohol , including Bohol beachfront resorts
• Check out our Bohol tour packages
• Book Panglao resorts in Bohol for your trip
• See our Cebu-Bohol tour packages
• Secure your Philippines ferry ticket booking

See our popular Chocolate Hills Tours

Long hailed as one of the best white sand beaches in the Philippines and the entire world,  Boracay ’s claim to fame is its 4-kilometer stretch of pure white, powdery sand called White Beach .

Cliche as it sounds, White Beach is truly postcard-perfect, with tall coconut trees lining it and crystal-clear calm waters rounding up its unmatched beauty, making it the top attraction in  Boracay tours  and the best tourist destination in the Philippines.

Those who want to indulge during their holiday can also do so, as Boracay is home to some of the best 5-star hotels in the Philippines , as well as several honeymoon resorts and some of the best beach resorts in the Philippines . You can also have a workation here

Its prominence in global publications has drawn in an influx of tourists over the last decades, and there is no shortage of hotels , restaurants , and Boracay bars on the entire island.

• Check out our lists of the best beachfront resorts in Boracay Island  and hotels in Boracay for family
• Browse our Boracay tour packages  and Malay hotels
• Read our article on the best golf courses in the Philippines , including one in Boracay

There are plenty of things to do in Boracay , and you can add other spots to your Boracay itinerary , including Puka Beach and Diniwid Beach, both of which offer a quiet respite and some of the best relaxing vibes during the daytime. Other things you can do in Boracay include  White Beach tours and activities like  Boracay banana boat riding, Boracay jetskiing , paddleboarding,  paraw sailing in Boracay,  snorkeling in Boracay,  helmet diving in Boracay , and parasailing in Boracay .

See our popular Boracay Tours and Activities

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Plan Your Ultimate Escape to the Philippines

It is impossible to visit all the best tourist spots in the Philippines in one go unless you have all the time in the world. But carefully planning out your Philippines itinerary will surely take you to some of the most unforgettable landscapes and fun-filled adventures you will ever see and experience. If you want a pampered experience, book a stay at one of the luxury resorts in the Philippines  or the best  wellness resorts in the Philippines , or try glamping in the Philippines .

• Cheap flights to Manila
• Dubai to Manila flights
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• Read our guide on airports in the Philippines

Aside from its spectacular views, the Philippines is also home to one of the most hospitable, warm, and free-spirited people you will ever meet. Before you finalize your online trip booking  or your Philippines holiday packages , read more of our Philippines travel guides to help you plan the ultimate escape and learn the reasons why you should visit the Philippines . 

See our popular Top Tours in the Philippines

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Rebooting Philippine Tourism from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Revitalizing tourism activities has become one of the primary concerns for the Philippines. In the short run, domestic tourism is expected to play a vital role in supporting the initial recovery phase of travel. With its presumed impact on travelers’ behavior and business operations, an analysis of the Filipino travelers’ sentiments and the existing domestic travel market is necessary in presenting effective strategies in the midst of the new normal in Philippine travel.

Introduction

The Philippine tourism economy has been heavily hit by the measures implemented to contain the spread of COVID-19. The pandemic has prompted an unprecedented crises with projections and revised scenarios suggesting that the shock in global tourism could be at 60-80% for the entire 2020, translating to a loss of approximately 67 million international arrivals or USD 80 billion in exports from tourism, while putting 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk. While affecting all economies, the Asia-Pacific region has been projected to suffer with the highest impact, affecting about 33 million arrivals (United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], 2020).

Tourism is a significant pillar in many economies in the region, especially in the Philippines, where in 2019, it contributed 12.7% share in the country’s GDP, and employed 14 out of 100 or 5.7 million of Filipinos (Philippine Statistics Authority [PSA], 2020). Following the outbreak of the pandemic, estimates for the first three months of 2020 suggest that revenue from foreign arrivals decreased by 35%, and employment in the industry may be reduced by about 33,800 to 56,600 (CGTN, 2020). Several months into the implementation of  stay-at-home  and quarantine policies, travel in the Philippines remains uncertain. Travel restrictions and limits in people-to-people interactions are likely to be in place for a long period of time, thus bringing the industry to a standstill.

With the expectation that domestic travel will recover faster than international tourism, insights on the possible strategies that can help bootstrap the Philippine tourism economy should be discussed. Critical to this approach is an understanding of the Filipino travelers’ sentiments towards travel and a marketing analysis which scrutinizes ways to revive travel demand and resume operations in the face of the new normal in tourism. This article will look into the variety of conducted surveys regarding travel perceptions and will reintroduce the concept of  space travel  to guide the creation of strategies towards travel in the new normal.

Redefining Travel in the New Normal: The Filipino Travelers’ Sentiments

In these times of uncertainty in the outlook of travel in the Philippines, a data-driven approach to support the revival of the industry has become an imperative. During the period of March to May 2020, several public and private organisations deemed it necessary to conduct surveys to understand stakeholders’ perceptions on travel in relation to the pandemic. Given mobility restrictions, surveys have been conducted online while targeting a range of stakeholders from enterprises, decision makers, to tourists. Conducted in varying time frames, general survey results suggest that travel sentiments might have evolved over periods of time. Insights on travel perceptions are necessary in crafting strategies for tourism recovery. Thus, consumer perception on the future of travel should be taken into consideration in planning interventions and strategies. Table 1 presents the surveys conducted in relation to travel and pandemic.

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From the results of the surveys, several insights about the future of travel in the Philippines were made: First, domestic travel will be a priority. Travelers opt to either engage in land travel or air travel. Second, travelers will prioritise travel in rural, secluded, and natural areas once restrictions are lifted. Travel away from mainstream and overcrowded destinations are expected, although beach destinations are still considered ideal destinations post-pandemic. Furthermore, due to the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, travelers are now more open to digital travel experiences. Similarly, travelers are likely to choose customised travel experiences over packaged group tours. Third, health and safety protocols will be their number one priority once travel resumes. Thus, effective communication of safety measures and protocols implemented in destinations and enterprises will greatly influence travel choices. Perception towards the health and safety in travel will therefore predict where travelers will travel, when they will be traveling, and what kind of experiences they hope to obtain. Fourth, while domestic travel is expected to resume within four to twelve months after easing of travel restrictions, sentiments are primarily dictated by perceptions on public health and safety. Finally, given that the pandemic has affected people’s source of income and their personal finances, travelers seek more cost-effective experiences.

Re-Introducing  Space Travel

As emphasised in the webinar entitled  Space travel: A conversation on strategies to revitalize Philippine tourism post-COVID-19  ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq-Co_DWg8E ) hosted by the AIM- Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism last 28 July 2020, much has been said about the world getting smaller, we forget that the world is actually big. There are still so many places to explore and to visit, much to learn and to unlearn. Overcrowding (i.e.,  mass tourism ) is no longer an option because of the established physical/social distancing, health and safety protocols that require decongestion of tourist attractions. To care for earth by giving nature room to flourish, to give fellow travellers the room to breathe, to explore, to grow, to reflect and participate in the lives of others, and to give destination stakeholders time to recover from visitor activities is the essence of  space travel . It is a literal practise of giving each other and the earth space.

Tourists who routinely return to familiar destinations are considered  second home tourists . These tourists are in the best position to care for a destination because they are invested in this as their go-to place for sanctuary. On the other hand, for those who travel to experience destinations from a distance, risking the alteration of local behaviour and culture are deemed  fishbowl tourists . By including activities that increase their involvement in local custom, rather than just mere observation can transform these tourists and their attitude towards travel. Those who immerse themselves and make their experience a journey is called the  inspired travellers , who imbibe sustainable tourism when they protect and safeguard the earth by their conscious defence and accountability of environments and travel behaviour.

Until restrictions are lifted and travelling returns to normal, tourism needs to adjust and adapt to reflect the present restrictions, initiating a new way of serving travellers called  transition tourism . This type of tourism distributes the business amongst many stakeholders – accommodations, transportation, alimentation, security, and sanitation – in small groups triggering a collaborative rebooting of a local economy in many areas. Thus, for space travel to take root, transition tourism must inspire fishbowl and mass tourists to become inspired travellers (see Figure 1).

By working together, stakeholders and travellers alike, in stimulating local economies as a tight organism is to  think small . It reduces the unwieldiness of the task of re-booting economies and industries. When each one of us does our little bits, we can save our big world by thinking small.

Moving Forward: From Crisis Response to Recovery

Further discussions, through webinars, have been initiated among experts and stakeholders on rebooting Philippine tourism. In the webinar titled  Bootstrapping Philippine tourism: Recalibrating our priorities during and after COVID-19  ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kNhIZqy92I ) hosted by the AIM-Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism last 03 June 2020, the following discussions have been featured: best practices on how tourism industries recover from disasters; strategies on how tourism stakeholders can manage COVID-19’s impacts; and insights on resilient recovery from a disaster risk-reduction management lens and how these can be applied for tourism recovery efforts.

During the webinar, Aileen C. Clemente (President, Rajah Travel Corporation) highlighted the following lessons from the pandemic: “it takes a while for people to get from philosophical discussion to general frame working to actual implementation”; “those who had a lot of excuses not to implement what needed to be implemented have no choice but to now implement them; and “greed has been tempered”. From these, Clemente cited the four stages of recovery as per the World Travel & Tourism Council – managing and mitigating the crisis, restarting the sector’s operations, reaching recovery, and redesign for the new normal.

In line with this, Maria Cherry Lyn S. Rodolfo (Consultant, Department of Tourism) explicated that the tourism industry must have a calibrated recovery plan, in which domestic tourism should be given priority. That is, tourism authorities and enterprises must incessantly develop safety and health protocols that will ensure domestic travel is safe, secure, and seamless. Rodolfo also emphasised that the pandemic warranted the need for “strong, innovative, and responsive network” in moving towards recovery, reset, and resiliency. Rodolfo also highlighted the role of “cohesive and collaborative networks” in tourism reboot. There should be: call to action for inclusive recovery assistance, innovation, infrastructure, and institutional strengthening; community engagement in utilizing the resources of networks and in leveraging local with national and international networks; and a communication plan that will cascade tourism reboot strategies to both existing strong and weak networks in the industry.

In doing so, Clemente argued that in the new normal, repositioning product offerings, raising levels of service, defining world-class destination, re-examining consumption of tourism products and services, and increasing awareness about mass tourism are essential. Similarly, Lesley Jeanne Y. Cordero (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank) stressed that in transitioning towards the new normal, there is a need to redefine tourist experience and destination management; invest in innovative and creative ways of product development; promote sustainability, inclusivity, and resiliency; recalibrate travel timelines, concepts, spaces and experiences; shift and share burden by collaborating with government, stakeholders, communities and tourists.  

While information about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has already dominated discourses on tourism, only a few discussions have been made regarding strategies to accelerate tourism recovery. With tourism activities at a standstill, an opportunity to adapt new models for conducting tourism activities has opened. More than ever, the role of tourism stakeholders in transitioning to the new normal has become more apparent.

In addressing the question on how tourism can recover after the COVID-19 pandemic, we analysed existing data regarding travel perceptions and conducted a marketing analysis to identify ways to revive travel demand and operations in the new normal. Our analysis suggest that existing business models may have become obsolete, thereby needing adjustments and re-assessments. While travel restrictions remain, transition tourism takes place. Crucial at this period is considering travelers’ perceptions and sentiments. Following the findings in the various surveys conducted, travelers are expected to engage in tourism activities with health and safety as their priority, which further suggests their preference towards natural areas and uncrowded destinations, digital travel, and customised experiences.

Reflected by these findings is a paradigm shift in the future of travel—from  fishbowl tourism  to  inspired travellers,  which also tantamount to a shift from mass tourism to a more sustainable form of tourism. However, this shift does not occur without the collaborative rebooting of the local economy by using local tourism as a springboard. Thus, stakeholders need to work together, along with tourists, to create a tightly knit industry that fosters  thinking small .

• CGTN. (2020). Philippines Q1 tourism revenue dips 35% due to COVID-19. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-02/Philippines-Q1-tourism-revenue-dips-35-due-to-COVID-19-Q9MV8ZEnW8/index.html
• Department of Tourism, Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism, & Guide to the Philippines (DOT, ALTCFT, GTTP). (2020, June). The Philippine Travel Survey Report: Insights on Filipino Travelers’ Sentiments on the New Normal. Department of Tourism, Asian Institute of Management, Guide to the Philippines.  https://guidetothephilippines.ph/ph-travel-survey .
• Experience Philippines. (2020, May). How Filipinos view traveling after COVID-19 flattens?  https://www.experience.ph/poll-how-filipinos-view-traveling-after-covid-19-flattens/ .
• Filinvest Hospitality Corporation and Chroma Hospitality Inc. (2020, June). Domestic travel sentiment survey.  https://indd.adobe.com/view/30521fd3-30fa-4ba2-b165-919e100569c3?fbclid=IwAR05IrayFDrJfKvoCfq5CDyzxcdawAra34OO_NuRXAidwU-JzXtcmYAsuO0 .
• Tajara Hospitality and Horwath HTL. (2020, April). Hotel sentiment survey 2020 (Impact of COVID-19).  https://cdn.horwathhtl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/Sentiment-Survey_Philippines_Hotels_Covid-Impact.pdf .
• TwoEco, Inc. (2020). Philippine tourism after the pandemic. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jw57pIvX0fh7l1y739HGk46COUOpRNFI/view.
• Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). (2020). Contribution of Tourism to the Philippine Economy is 12.7 percent in 2018. https://psa.gov.ph/content/contribution-tourism-philippine-economy-127-percent-2018
• PwC Philippines. (2020, July). Impact of COVID-19 on the Philippine tourism indusry.  https://www.pwc.com/ph/en/publications/tourism-pwc-philippines/tourism-covid-19.html .
• United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2020). International Tourist Numbers could fall 60-80% in 2020. https://www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-international-tourist-numbers-could-fall-60-80-in-2020

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Commentary: The Philippines, home of many beautiful destinations – and the scourge of mass tourism

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The Philippine tourism has been fixated on economic growth. That must change now, says Michael Henry Yusingco.

Up to 40,000 beachgoers were unwinding on Boracay's sand and swimming in its turquoise waters at peak periods AFP/STR

Michael Henry Yusingco

MANILA: Imagine standing on high ground. Captured in the panoramic view is a volcano surrounded by a lake.

At the foot of the volcano is a bustling human settlement nestled by swaths of vivid green and teeming with life.

The high ground is also surrounded by lush vegetation with wild grass and trees always within sight, and their branches and leaves eagerly dance with the cool mountain breeze.

It is a vantage point that can certainly be mistaken for Eden.

Tagaytay is that city on high ground. Taal is that volcano.

READ: Commentary: Let’s hold off judging the Philippines as SEA Games host

Tagaytay is a very popular vacation spot for families because of its cool climate. It is also a much sought-after place for events such as weddings because of its spectacular scenery and colonial churches.

THE GREAT DEBATE OVER SHUTTING DOWN TAAL

But Taal was in the news recently for a different set of reasons. It greeted the new year literally with a bang - by threatening to erupt.

Dense and heavy ashfall and the very real possibility of volcanic eruption prompted the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology to issue a high alert status and to recommend the lockdown of all areas within the 14km radius danger zone, which included Tagaytay.

Some Filipino politicians, however, insisted that the city must remain open for business and leave the decision on whether to visit to the discretion of tourists.

Commentary: Why were tourists allowed to visit New Zealand's White Island volcano?

The Filipino Government was initially divided in its response.

One group of legislators argued for a shutdown and was in favour of placing a premium on public safety, while another argued against it, on the basis of protecting the economy of a very popular tourist destination.

In the end, the lockdown directive prevailed after an eruption in mid-January.

READ: Commentary: Tourism in Asia takes a beating after Wuhan coronavirus outbreak

  THE BIGGER DEBATE ON TOURISM  

But the situation has calmed down since. The lockdown order has been partially lifted in end-January, and the alert status has been lowered a notch.

Tagaytay is slowly returning to business as usual. School has just been opened these past few weeks.

Nonetheless, Filipino federal officials are warning that people should not be lulled into a false sense of complacency as they may have to be ready to evacuate at any time, given that Taal is still experiencing tremors.

This stands in sharp contrast to political leaders in Tagaytay, including Filipino Senator Tolentino, who had pushed for the lockdown to be lifted just days after the shutdown, despite concerns of eruption.

The Philippines relies heavily on tourism for economic growth. The country welcomed close to 8 million foreign visitors in 2019. The sector contributes 12.7 per cent of GDP and supports 5.4 million jobs.

Tourism is seen as a chief means to generate business activities and jobs, and reduce poverty and unemployment in the country.

The Philippines, home to many beautiful destinations, excels effortlessly in the tourism sector. It is a country full of natural wonders, with a population known for its innate hospitality and ability to communicate in conversational English.

But recent events have given more steam to questions over whether this partiality for economic growth in tourism should be reconsidered when it relegates other national goals that are just as important but often get sidelined in the name of development – including environmental protection and the preservation of heritage.

The COVID-19 outbreak has also exposed the fragility of the tourism sector, which relies heavily on Chinese tourists that make up more than a fifth of inbound visitors. The country also saw the first death from the disease outside China on Feb 2.

With President Rodrigo Duterte's travel ban, this loss could cost the tourism sector US$292 million in February alone, according to tourism secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat.

READ: Commentary: Recycle or reduce waste? Why Southeast Asia’s ocean plastic pile has no easy answers  

KILLING THE GOLDEN GOOSE

Who can forget the closure of the Philippines’ most popular beach, Boracay, which reopened in 2018 after months of extensive works, on the back of comments by Filipino leaders it had virtually become a “cesspool” after decades of growth-driven tourism?

Hotels, restaurants and surrounding businesses were said to have dumped sewage directly into the ocean.

Almost one in three tourists to the country visited Boracay, an interesting fact when you consider the Philippines has over 7,000 other islands.

Crucially, however, this environmental catastrophe has brought to the surface a pathology in the tourism industry many Filipinos already know but have refused to acknowledge: That blind adherence to economic growth could snuff out so much more that matter to them.

Tourism strain and environmental damage have disfigured the breath-taking paradise of Boracay with its sandy, white beaches. It could do worse to the rest of the Philippines.

Neglecting the environment in the pursuit of economic growth has taken its deadly toll.

Filipinos are also coming to grips with the reality that this environmental degradation could ultimately kill tourism, the very goose that lays golden eggs for the Philippines.

READ: Commentary: Tourism's impact on the environment is larger than we think  

SAVING TOURISM BY PRIORITISING THE ENVIRONMENT

A strong argument can be made that the Philippines needs an environmentalism which treats the conservation of natural resources as both an ecological and economic problem.

But a tourism policy with a stronger demonstrable bias in favour of protecting and preserving the environment is a recalibration worth pursuing, given the recent spate of environmental disasters as well as the challenges brought about by climate change.

Such a policy shift would necessarily entail restoring those areas that have been damaged by overuse and neglect, such as Boracay.

More importantly, it would also mean preventing the same catastrophe from happening in unchartered areas in the country that have seen larger numbers of visitors over the years.

For instance, up north, there is the old Spanish Trail in Kalinga Province, between the towns of Pasil and Balbalan.

Down south, there are the pink sand beaches of Langgas Island in Maluso, Basilan.

Ecotourism, which advocates for low-impact, sustainable travel, could be a viable way for the Philippines to put more money in underdeveloped areas and spread out tourists from traditionally popular places.

There is still a long list of natural wonders in the country that can still benefit from a conservation mindset from the tourism industry.   

Indeed, the fight between conservation and growth is an age-old one. The wealth which the earth brings is truly enticing and will draw more business tycoons looking to exploit undiscovered sanctuaries.

For the pre-colonial forebears of Filipinos, the answer was very simple. As farmers, fishermen and hunter-gatherers, respect for the environment was paramount, even transcendent.

READ: Commentary: Instagram has turned travel into must-share social occasions

However, after two eras of colonial rule and decades of independence, the constant chase after modernisation has seen monetary considerations in this equation acquire a premium over Mother Earth.

Nonetheless, Filipinos want a balanced and healthful ecology, a desire inscribed into the constitution.

And it would not be an exaggeration to say that policymakers in the Philippines, with a young population at 108 million, should really be concerned about this preservation of environment community and heritage.

The conservation of the country’s natural habitats must now be the primary concern of all development policies, including tourism.  

Michael Henry Yusingco is a legislative and policy consultant, law lecturer and a non-resident research fellow at the Ateneo School of Government.

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Ecotourism to flourish in the Philippines under new normal

Ecotourism, an alternative to mass tourism, is poised to reign supreme in the Philippines’ travel industry’s transition to the new normal post-Covid-19, according to experts at the Ecotourism Philippines webinar.

Organised by Masungi Georeserve, Visita, Eco Explorations and Andrew Tan Center for Tourism of the Asian Institute of Management, the webinar was held to discuss the country’s tourism recovery post-Covid.

John Roberts, Minor Hotels group director of sustainability and conservation, said that ecotourism already has a headstart with its outdoor-centric activities, offering itineraries in safer, low-risk environments. As such, he reckoned that ecotourism will rebound faster than mass tourism.

“Hotels and other operations are going to have to look at what we do in ecotourism – how we manage to make money with fewer guests, greater space, more personalised service, and smaller groups,” Roberts pointed out.

“For ecotourism, the new normal is actually the old normal and that is, ecotourism is run in a very different way by and large from many of the other mass tourism products,” said Tony Charters, board member of the Asian Ecotourism Network and vice-chair of Global Ecotourism Network.

“In some ways, ecotourism is the leader in what the new normal is,” Charters said, adding that this sector is “adopting practices that are probably much safer from environmental and health points of view than many other forms of tourism”.

He further elaborated: “The experiential side of ecotourism is very important and often, you will find that many different ecotourism activities like walking treks and canoe treks (are carried out in) quite remote areas where the risk (of virus infection) is very, very low.”

Boboi Costas, who organised the Bojo Aloguinsan Ecotourism Association in Cebu and developed the Aloguinsan River Eco-cultural Tour, underscored the need to look at product development in the new normal.

He suggested that the ecotourism market should be segmented into different product types, for example, health and wellness, culinary, and bird watching, with the addition of more private activities and groups. He added that ecotourism providers should establish contacts with local health practitioners.

On the other hand, Roberts advised industry players to start learning and training in ecotourism as it’s poised to be the most popular vacation type in the new normal.

He added that they should also step up efforts to woo the domestic market which will recover ahead of the international market, noting that Minor Hotels is strongly eyeing the domestic market in Bangkok once the Golden Triangle opens up in July.

Furthermore, Roberts also suggested for ecotourism providers in South-east Asia to share inspirational stories created around their destinations on social media, retrain the digital community, and start differentiating themselves from mass tourism by building on the region’s trademark friendliness and hospitality.

Roberts cited the case of him and his community hosting Facebook live sessions for Minor Hotels’ Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp, connecting with their audience and telling them about the camp’s work so they remain top of mind, and raising awareness of their donation drive.

For destinations, Charters advised pushing for quality and sustainability, and marketing their merits, which in the Philippines’ case, is friendliness.

With global discussions about Boracay’s rehabilitation, Charters said the key is to keep the project at the forefront, emphasising that the Philippines is doing things in a sustainable manner.

During the webinar, the panelists also debunked ecotourism operations as very small-scale and expensive, claiming that it can be carried out on a large-scale if done correctly, and that the element of scale only comes into relevance when sustainability or the experience is threatened.

Large-scale ecotourism spots included A$10 billion which generates A$10 billion (US$6.9 billion) annually to Australia’s economy; Queensland’s Skyrail Rainforest Cableway, a long cableway that can carry hundreds of thousands of people yearly to the top of the rainforest; and English Bay Resort on the world heritage site Fraser Bay.

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Bohol as a Model of Eco-Tourism in the Philippines

Around Bohol

Hidden lagoons, white-sand beaches, and rich culture – there are countless reasons as to why the Philippines is attracting more and more travelers. However, just like in other destinations in Southeast Asia, mass tourism has taken its toll on some of the Philippines’ prime tourist destinations. As a result, the government and tourism department of the Philippines are now making conscious efforts to promote eco-tourism and Bohol is an excellent example. In this article, we will talk about things that present Bohol as a model of eco-tourism in the Philippines.

Bohol: Tourism Done Right

Bohol is an oval-shaped province situated in Central Visayas, flanked by the Camotes Sea on the north, the Bohol Sea on the south, and Cebu Strait on the west. It is considered as a key tourist destination in the country which comprises 7000+ islands. The pristine white beaches, lush tropical rainforests, and amazing diving spots support the island’s reputation as an eco-tourism destination. While the nearby islands are more popular among tourists and locals for their white sand beaches and numerous five-star resorts, Bohol has earned the admiration of many visitors for developing tourism in a responsible and sustainable way.

Tourists enjoy a view of the famous Chocolate Hills from a safe distance. Image: mb.com.ph

Despite having so many beautiful natural and cultural attractions, Bohol was actually once among the poorest provinces in the Philippines. In an effort to promote economic and provincial development, the local government took advantage of Bohol’s rich biodiversity and turned the province into a prime tourist destination. While it was not unlikely for Bohol to follow the footsteps of the neighboring island of Boracay, the local government chose the more sustainable route, not compromising Bohol’s environment for the sake of economic progress.

Bohol-Panglao International Airport, the Philippines’ First Eco-Airport

Inaugurated in 2018, the Bohol-Panglao International Airport is set to boost the economy of the region. Image: goodnewspilipinas.com

Sustainability is immediately promoted once you enter the province through Bohol-Panglao International Airport, the country’s first eco-airport . Dubbed as “the green gateway to the world,” the airport uses solar panels to partly supply power to its passenger terminals. Natural light and ventilation is also utilized in several areas of the airport, only having limited areas wherein energy-saving air-conditioners and LED lights are present. The eco-airport also has its own waste disposal system and sewage treatment plant.

Eco-Tourism Attractions to See in Bohol

With an abundance of natural and cultural attractions, Bohol is an ideal destination for adventure seekers and eco-tourism enthusiasts. Here are some of the things to do and see in Bohol:

The Man-Made Forest in Bilar

The man-made Bohol Forest stretches for nearly two-kilometers and comprises of Mahogany trees carefully planted between the borders of Loboc and Bilar towns. Before the verdant eco-forest, you can see a dense growth of green foliage and various other trees and ferns dotting the road. As you enter the forest area in summer, you are welcomed by a cool breeze even if it is scorching hot outside.

Learn more about the Man-made Mahogany Forest of Bilar, Bohol .

Butterfly Conservation Centers

The island is home many butterfly breeding and conservation centers. Their goal is to strengthen and protect the butterflies through research, breeding and releasing. By increasing the population of butterflies in Bohol, these conservation centers hope to contribute to the local economy by using the butterflies and their byproducts. Facilities at conservation centers usually include a butterfly garden, a butterfly enclosure, pagoda, nature trail, and so on.

Learn more about the Butterfly Sanctuary in Bohol .

The Chocolate Hills

The iconic Chocolate Hills are perhaps the most popular tourist attractions on the island of Bohol. They are a collection of 1,268 hills that feature a distinctive geographical formation. The green grass that covers these hills turn into a brown, chocolate color during the dry season, hence the name.

Discover one of the Philippines most iconic natural landmarks, The Chocolate Hills .

Diving Spots

The underwater beauty of Bohol. Image: dive-bohol.com

Eco-tourism in Bohol is not just limited to the land, but also extends to its waters. The island has some of the best sites for diving, scuba, and snorkeling that give you the opportunity to explore the rich marine biodiversity of Bohol and its surrounding islets. It has locations where divers can spot reef sharks, black corals, marine turtles, cuttlefish, frogfish, sea horses, and more. Some of Bohol’s popular diving spots include Panglao and Balicasag islands .

Check out our article about the Bohol’s Top Diving Spots Deserving to be on your Bucket List !

Danao Eco-Adventure Tour

Fun and excitement for the family at Danao Adventure Park. Image: Dabao Adventure Park facebook page.

If you are looking for some adrenaline rush, take the Danao Eco-Adventure tour that features fun and thrilling activities like river tubing, zip-lining, cave tours, rappelling, sky rides, trekking, kayaking, and visiting an organic farm. You can also go camping or visit other neighboring islands such as Panglao, Pamilacan, Cabilao, and Balicasag. Adding a cultural element to your Bohol tour, these locations still have remnants of the Spanish rule which you can explore.

Learn more about Danao Adventure Park .

The Tarsier Sanctuary

The tarsier sanctuaries of Bohol are definitely one of its must-visit places. It is home to the endangered tarsier species which are usually considered as the smallest primates in the world. These nocturnal primates are also often identified by their large and soulful eyes. These sanctuaries and centers for eco-tourism hope to educate people about tarsiers and save them from extinction.

Learn more about the Tarsier , the most beloved animal of Bohol.

Bohol’s wide selection of eco-friendly activities and attractions truly makes it a great model for eco-tourism in the Philippines. Its success as a tourist destination is a good example of how to promote tourism without having to sacrifice the natural environment and resources. As travelers, visiting Bohol is also an exciting and extraordinary way of spending your holiday vacations as you get to enjoy and explore this tropical island through responsible and sustainable means.

Featured image courtesy of boholbeachclub.com

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MAPping the Future

There is tourism future in culture.

The pandemic experience is an eye-opener. Countries realized the impact of the tourism industry and its long value chain in national, regional and global economies. What used to be in high demand teetered and slumped to its worst record, averaging 75-80% reduction in international arrivals as 2021 ended.

On the flipside, the global health crisis provided the unintended benefit of freeing the destinations from being ‘overworked’, affording their communities the chance to breathe again without the crowd. As people turned inward with the lockdowns, they also saw with renewed interest the local treasures beginning to recover from their stressful tourism past.

Even prior to the pandemic, the voices of the communities in popular destinations were steadily rising in protest of OVERTOURISM. Too many visitors congested their narrow, ancient streets, their places of worship, the restaurants they regularly patronize; and when tourists come in droves, they themselves cannot even find accommodation for their close relatives who are visiting.

The anti-tourism sentiments, expressed in billboards and demonstrations, manifested the desire of community residents to take back their cities and their lives. Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau captured this in her statement: “Its paradoxical, but uncontrolled mass tourism ends up destroying the very things that made a place attractive in the first place: the unique atmosphere of the local culture.”

With the lifting of the travel bans in 2022, tourism started to slowly pick up. Many of these tourists began doing what is coined as REVENGE TRAVEL – an overwhelming need to go out, see the world and make up for the shut-ins for the past two years. As yet, there are more sellers than buyers though, making competition tight. Countries are aggressively taking steps to entice travel markets to get back the tourism numbers the industry used to enjoy – but where and how?

The where will be to destinations that the tourists can safely go with little risk of exposure to infection; where they can enjoy open spaces without the face masks, appreciate more sedate pace, leisurely commune with nature and immerse more in the tourism communities they will visit. Nature and culture – the green and gold – fit these changing preferences. Fusing these two into a blended travel experience will showcase our unique attributes as appealing proposition for the ‘new’ tourists.

Cultural tourism can be that distinct experience we can offer to travelers – a potentially lucrative touchpoint for both domestic and international market. Culture is unique in every destination. It mirrors the various influences and experiences woven into a living tapestry handed down from generation to generation. It is dynamic and constantly evolving, giving it a special character with facets that cannot be replicated anywhere else.

Cultural tourism cuts across all product offerings. Everything that we do is animated by our culture – the way we welcome visitors, in the food we serve, the activities and events we plan, in our festivals, in our local markets. Reciprocally, a strong culture-based tourism market enables inclusive development as crafts, arts, heritage sites, festivals – all these can generate and sustain employment and livelihood for the community, protect the environment and destinations, and celebrate the indigenous. It can bring travelers to our shores because who we are and what we have is something that can only be experienced where we are.

Cultural tourism can be transformative for travelers – eat, love, pray — travel, enjoy, respect. Destinations can engage the mission-oriented market because they will not exact the high price of a damaged biodiversity, and instead of intruding, can actually blend into the peaceful life of the communities.

The how is in solidifying this interest into a push factor so that this growing market segment will actually travel to the country. We have to highlight our stories so they can be heard in a travel marketplace filled with tourism vendors where the noise decibels can drown the messages. The usual shotgun marketing and promotion activities will have little usefulness in creating a compelling narrative that ticks all the boxes for the discerning travelers.

Careful planning with implementation strategies done in a sensible, creative, productive and sustainable manner will be needed to make our cultural tourism offering stand out. It should factor in critical issues such as:

• The need to balance profits and economic gains with maintaining cultural integrity. There is the danger of manufacturing heritage practices by staging events because it sells, even though they are only hanging by a thread in the cultural fabric. Commoditizing culture diminishes authenticity and disrespects our history.
• Adherence to the defined carrying capacity of destinations to conserve our heritage sites, preserve the cultural/natural treasures and protect the environment.
• Tourism is an industry that can be developed and promoted, but it must not be the only one. A tourism mono-economy poses risk when too much dependency will be at the expense of other industries. When crisis imperils this mono-industry, there might be lack of viable alternatives that can be tapped to take its place. This was seen in this pandemic when many tourism-dependent businesses fell because there were no other business options to consider for pivoting.
• Tourism drives the cost of living for local residents because they compete with the visitors’ requirements. This gentrification of tourism areas can limit the supply for local consumption, drive the prices of commodities up, and affect the quality of life in the community.

Instituting a policy framework that considers these challenges will enable destinations to systematically prepare for the requirements of cultural tourism. Steps can be taken to calibrate the growth of tourism numbers to maximize the value of cultural tourism while safety nets are in place to minimize disruptions in community lives.

Authentic culture sells. Being anchored to our roots gives us a sense of identity in a world where traditional and digital are fusing. We must preserve that authenticity to honor and respect who we are and where we come from. We can learn from cultural exchanges made more accessible with enhanced mobility and by welcoming visitors into our fold.

Culture can differentiate. It personalizes the experience in a destination, giving them character. Without culture and symbolisms, they are just another photo op – awesome to behold but forgotten when tourists see the next big one. Culture allows us to bring our legendary hospitality to the fore, develop local pride and a sense of identity among the people. The strands of our history and traditions weaves into our cultural fabric to create a whole that is colorful, respectful, and wonderful. That should be what our visitors can see, hear, enjoy, and learn from us, and like it enough to visit over and over again.

Formative and transformative culture influenced what we are today. We take pride in our unique identity as a nation and as people. Cultural tourism can create the thematic experiences, enable exchanges, and become constant reminders that we live in a beautiful country with a great tourism future.

What we do today will leave a heritage that the generation next can celebrate – and who knows, even immortalize in their museums in the distant future.

(The author is Vice Chair of MAP Tourism Committee, Chair of MAP CEO Conference Committee, President and CEO of Health Solutions Corporation, and former Undersecretary of the Department of Tourism. Feedback at < [email protected] > and <[email protected] > .)

So, what exactly must be done in order to combat tax evasion on the international level? One thing that can be done is by amending the UNCAC to include tax evasion.

This, though it appears straightforward, is a difficult proposition as it first requires a State Party to propose the amendment, and for that proposal to be agreed to by a two-thirds majority of the State Parties.

To get this consensus, there are two global governance processes that can be undertaken: (1) issue framing and agenda setting, and (2) public standard setting.

On issue framing and agenda setting, it is important to underscore the connection between corruption and tax evasion. The similarities and links between corruption and tax evasion have already been discussed earlier. They are both serious financial crimes that hinder development and erode the rule of law.

The present proposal to include tax evasion in the UNCAC can be framed as an act that will promote transparency and accountability. Refusal to support the agenda could come with the reputational risk for the country and its public officials.

On the issue of public standard setting, it is crucial to set the basis for including corruption in the list of offenses provided in the UNCAC, as well as to include the imposition of sanctions that will deter the commission of these financial crimes.

The UNCAC already recommends the disqualification of public officials found guilty by the specific corrupt acts listed therein. The Philippines has similar provisions in its Tax Code. Specifically, those who have been convicted of tax evasion are disqualified from occupying any public office. However, at present, there is no mechanism by which bribe money or ill-gotten wealth can be investigated or assessed.

Overall, the international community must be made to recognize that tax evasion is just as damaging as any of the other financial crimes that the UNCAC presently considers corruption. Especially now, with the looming possibility of a global economic crisis, corruption in all its forms – including tax evasion – must be addressed.

(This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP.  The author is a MPA/Mason Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. He is a member of MAP Tax Committee and MAP Ease of Doing Business Committee, Co-chair of Paying Taxes on Ease of Doing Business Task Force, and Chief Tax Advisor of Asian Consulting Group. Feedback at <[email protected]> and <[email protected]>.)

The impacts of whale shark mass tourism on the coral reefs in the Philippines

The collaborative research among The University of Hong Kong (HKU), the University of Guam (UoG), and the Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines (LAMAVE) shows that whale shark tourism in Tan-awan, Oslob, Philippines has led to degradation of the local coral reef ecosystem. This study, which provides the first documentation of such ecological impact locally in Tan-awan, has recently been published in the scientific journal Environmental Management , and provided baseline data to measure future tourism management intervention and the shift towards a more sustainable tourism model.

The Coral Biogeochemistry Lab in the School of Biological Sciences at HKU, one of the top Institutions in Asia, led a research expedition to Oslob in 2015 in collaboration with the University of Guam, the Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines and the Local Government Unit of Oslob. This small municipality on the south coast of Cebu, has become a domestic and international tourism hotspot since 2011, attracting over 300,000 visitors in 2015 and doubled since then. The mass tourism phenomenon is fueled by the year-round presence of whale sharks along the local shallow reef. This unusual aggregation is maintained by the local tourism association provisioning (feeding) the whale sharks with up to 50 tons of Uyap (sergestid) shrimps annually. While most of the studies to date focus on the whale shark population and tourism perception, this is the first study that investigates the impacts of intensive provisioning and concentrating tourism activities on the health of the largely understudied yet highly vulnerable local reef ecosystem.

The data presented in the paper shows that in comparison to a reference site further south the coast, Tan-awan is affected by greater impacts of degradation as indicated by higher macroalgae and lower coral density as well as a less diverse coral community dominated by weedy corals (Pocillopora) and stress-tolerant (Porites) corals. Furthermore, using the advanced technique of stable isotope analysis on the individual growth ring (biogenic archives) of the species studied, preliminary results reveal anthropogenic nitrogen inputs in Tan-awan.

"It is vital for all stakeholders to understand that the environmental and societal well-being go hand in hand. I hope that everyone can come to the table to contribute to management and conservation efforts to reverse the trend of reef degradation in Tan-awan." -Martin Wong, University of Hong Kong.

The finding of reef degradation in Tan-awan is alarming and requires immediate attention given reef health underpins the ecosystem services afforded to the local communities, including the important tourism sector. As the whale shark tourism is projected to grow continuously in the foreseeable future, the research team urges the need for local authorities to implement proper management strategies to mitigate the problems and risks associated with the rapid tourism development.

This collaborative research effort to document the state of reef health and nitrogen pollution sources also provide an ecological baseline for future data to compare with. Having such critical information, further monitoring programs can be carried out in order to keep reef health in check and evaluate the effectiveness of any mitigation and management measures towards reef conservation.

"Let this be a new beginning. We are positive that with this baseline data at hand the local authorities will look further into the long term and broader ecological impact of mass tourism activities, in Oslob as in many other areas in the country and put a priority into the conservation of their marine resources, shifting towards sustainable tourism and ensuring the local food security through the conservation and restoration of healthy marine ecosystems." -- Dr Ponzo Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines.

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Story Source:

Materials provided by The University of Hong Kong . Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference :

• C. W. Martin Wong, Inga Conti-Jerpe, Laurie J. Raymundo, Caroline Dingle, Gonzalo Araujo, Alessandro Ponzo, David M. Baker. Whale Shark Tourism: Impacts on Coral Reefs in the Philippines . Environmental Management , 2018; DOI: 10.1007/s00267-018-1125-3

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Limasawa Island: A Place of the First Mass in the Philippines

Limawasa, an island municipality in southern leyte, is a small yet flourishing town being the site of the first christian mass in the country and in asia. the first cross and the first mass shrine are some of the frequently visited spots that give tourists a rare experience of retracing the historic footsteps of the portuguese explorer ferdinand magellan in 1521 who paved the way for the beginning of christianity in the country..

“Mazaua” is the original name of this municipality. There are two assumptions how the municipality got its name:

Limasawa was created into an independent municipality on June 11, 1978 by virtue of Presidential Decree No. 1549. But this was not implemented due to some problems. Limasawa officially became a municipality on August 27, 1989 after the conduct of a plebiscite among the populace to ratify its independence.

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T. Opus Street, Maasin City, Southern Leyte, Samar / Leyte, Philippines

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Osmena Street, Sogod, Leyte

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• Verano Pension House

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Demeterio Street, Barangay Abgao, Maasin City, Southern Leyte

• Jaimee's Hotel 

Ibarra Beach, Maasin City, Southern Leyte, Samar / Leyte, Philippines 6600

How to get there

From Manila, tourists can reach Southern Leyte by riding a plane via Tacloban. Local airlines from Manila have trips going to Tacloban - the gateway to Southern Leyte.  Next from Tacloban, take an FX van going to Hinunangan - one of the town in Southern Leyte. 

There are buses from Manila particularly in Pasay or Cubao that have direct trips to Hinunangan.

Maasin City is the nearest gateway to Limawasa Island. From Maasin City, the island can be reached through a 30-minute ride to the municipality of Padre Burgos and another 40 minutes banca/boat ride to the island. Maasin City is 2-3 hours van/bus ride from Ormoc City and Tacloban City.

• http://www.nscb.gov.ph/ru8/Profiles/Municipal_Profile/Municipal_Profile_Limasawa.pdf
• http://www.leyteboard.com/how-to-get-to-leyte.php

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Road to resurgence of tourism sector in the Philippines

Broad indicators in the global tourism industry, including arrivals, flight capacity, and hotel occupancy rates, are anticipated to finally recover to pre-pandemic levels by next year, according to real estate services firm Leechiu Property Consultants Inc.

Industry stakeholders should thus look out for certain trends that can significantly impact the Philippines in the coming year, including the relaxation of visa restrictions, persistent high airfares driven by escalating aviation fuel costs, ongoing inflation, a high-interest rate environment that may leave consumers with diminished purchasing power, as well as the return of business travel and meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) events.

Promising outlook

The third quarter of 2023 alone already revealed a promising outlook on the Philippine tourism sector, with the number of international tourist arrivals reaching 4.038 million as of end September. This places the Department of Tourism (DOT) at an impressive 84 percent of its 4.8 million international tourist arrivals target for 2023.

Despite substantial recovery from key source countries like South Korea, the United States of America, and Australia, the Philippines has yet to reclaim more than 50 percent of its 2019 tourist numbers from Japan and China.

China’s relatively low recovery rate can be attributed to multiple factors, including limited international flight capacity, which currently operates at only 50 percent of its pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the reduced number of Japanese tourists year to date may be linked to a 32-year low for the Japanese Yen, falling below 150 per US dollar, among other concerns.

Private sector investments

To sustain the growth in the Philippine tourism industry, there’s a pressing need for greater private sector investment in additional hotel accommodations. Initiating these investments within the next year is critical to fortify international tourism beyond 2027.

Currently, a development pipeline is in place, with nearly 15,000 new hotel rooms expected to be delivered within the next five years, primarily concentrated in Metro Manila. Moreover, additional hotel projects are anticipated to be announced in the coming months or years, aligning with the DOT’s target of 12 million international arrivals for 2028.

The development of hotels in key cities such as Cebu, Clark, Davao, Bohol, and Palawan highlights the pivotal role of international airports in driving demand for hotel accommodations.

For instance, the establishment of the Bohol–Panglao International Airport in 2018 and the installation of night instrumentation in 2019 have significantly boosted tourist arrivals in Panglao. In 2019, Panglao reached an impressive 1.58 million visitors, coming close to Boracay’s 2.034 million arrivals during the same period.

Premier tourism destination

Given these promising figures, it’s becoming increasingly likely that Panglao Island could surpass Boracay Island as the Philippines’ premier tourism destination.

Alfred Lay, director for Hotel, Tourism, and Leisure at Leechiu Property Consultants, highlighted a key advantage of Panglao over Boracay: its larger size and capacity limits. He also pointed out the ongoing developments in Panglao, including the proposed 50-ha Panglao Shores project, the upcoming JW Marriott hotel, the Cebu-Bohol bridge, and large-scale energy initiatives designed to meet Bohol’s growing energy demands.

These developments have had a significant impact on land values, with Alona Beachfront properties now priced at approximately P80,000 to P120,000 per sqm, approaching the land values in Boracay’s white beach area.

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Philippines aims to attract more tourists from US this year

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Meet The Billionaire Betting Big On An Idyllic Island Retreat In The Philippines

Inside andrew tan's $720 million eco-tourism project in the country’s pristine beachside paradise., by jonathan burgos , forbes staff.

T he pitch is for tropical paradise: turquoise waters that lap a pristine shoreline fringed by lush, mist-streaked greenery. Philippine property giant Megaworld extolls on its Facebook page the virtues of Palawan island, the largest of a 1,780-island group by the same name that hangs to the left of the island nation in the Pacific. Here, Megaworld is pursuing its most complex project yet, a resort and residential estate that will be the island’s biggest real estate development to date.

On 462 hectares in San Vicente, a quiet, relatively untouched corner of Palawan’s northern coast, known for its rich biodiversity, virgin forests, steep karst cliffs and the longest white sand beach in the Philippines, Megaworld has a 15-year plan to raise a township from among the coconut trees—an ecofriendly addition, it says, to its hospitality, office, retail and residential portfolio that spans the country. When finished, Paragua Coastown will include two 10-story hotels, a residential condominium, villas, a hospital, a school, and wellness-related centers.

Megaworld, owned by billionaire Andrew Tan ’s spirits-to-property conglomerate Alliance Global Group, is pouring over 40 billion pesos ($720 million) into the venture—a tenth of what it plans to spend on building townships across the Philippines in the next five years. The company is banking on getting in on the ground floor as the island remakes itself into one of the country’s top tourist destinations. Some 1.5 million people, of which about 650,000 were overseas travelers, visited the island in 2023, nearly twice as many as the previous year, according to government figures, as tourists return to the Philippines post-Covid. (Boracay, the archipelago’s most popular resort island, had over 2 million visitors last year.) “We intend to showcase the best sustainable tourism and green living concepts by developing it into an ecotourism township,” Kevin Tan, Andrew’s eldest son and Megaworld’s executive vice president and chief strategy officer, says by email.

Andrew Tan (left), chairman of spirits-to-property conglomerate Alliance Global and his eldest son, Kevin Tan, CEO of Alliance Global.

San Vicente is seen as the next frontier in the island’s commercial boom, catching up to Palawan’s other island centers where tourism is flourishing, including its capital, Puerto Princesa City (home to the 8.2-kilometer underground river, a Unesco World Heritage site), and El Nido, a municipality comprised of small islands at Palawan’s northern tip that has in recent years become a playground for backpackers and jetsetters alike. Ayala Land, controlled by billionaire Jaime Zobel de Ayala and his family, has already made inroads as El Nido’s biggest developer, owning the 325-hectare Lio tourism estate along with four other resorts in the town’s smaller islands.

Megaworld broke ground last year on its 306-room Savoy Hotel Palawan and the nearby 189-unit Oceanfront Premier Residences tower, which are both slated to be completed in 2028. Construction of the 313-room Paragua Sands Hotel, which will open in 2029, has yet to start.

Most rooms will have water views, and the hiking trails of the Pagdanan mountain range, home to threatened wildlife such as the Philippine cockatoo, gray imperial pigeon and blue-naped parrot, are a short drive away.

Megaworld is building Paragua Coastown (left) along the coconut tree-lined (right) coastline of San Vicente, Palawan island in the Philippines.

“More than just sustainable tourism, our vision for Paragua Coastown is to be able to provide an opportunity to those who want to live the island life within a lush and sustainable landscape,” Tan says. To that end, he says Megaworld will incorporate solar and other renewable energy sources into its building design. There will be a waste-to-energy plant to supply electricity to the township as part of a new waste-management system and sewage-treatment center.

About 40% of Paragua Coastown’s land area has been earmarked for open (albeit landscaped) spaces, while a mangrove forest reserve in its boundaries will be left untouched. Megaworld also plans to plant thousands of trees on 100 hectares deforested by commercial logging, once a mainstay of the local economy, and upgrade the mostly dirt tracks used by San Vicente's 30,000 residents to a network of roads in and around the property.

Ana Margarita Lustre-Malijan, vice president at local hotelier and construction firmArlustre Group, believes such developments will be a huge boon for Palawan, bringing jobs and income to the island where about 15% of the population falls below the poverty line. It could also be the tipping point to improve accessibility to the area. There’s an airport in San Vicente, but Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific, two of the nation’s main airlines, don’t fly there. Getting to San Vicente means a 90-minute flight from Manila or Cebu to Puerto Princesa and a bumpy four-hour car ride across rugged terrain. Cebu Pacific CEO Michael Szucs tells Forbes Asia that the airline will consider flying to San Vicente once the Megaworld hotels are built.

Tourists visiting the Puerto Princesa underground river (top left), a Unesco World Heritage site, while a wild pig roams Coconut Beach in San Vicente. View of San Vicente's famed stretch of white-sand beach (right).

Besides attracting homegrown developers, Palawan has become a stopping point for international hospitality brands. “Palawan stands out as an attractive destination, blending cultural richness with natural landscapes,” Raj Menon, Marriott’s president for Asia Pacific excluding China, says by email. The U.S. group will add over 70 rooms this year to its recently opened 168-room Four Points by Sheraton on Sabang Beach, near Puerto Princesa’s underground river, to meet demand. American hotel chains Best Western and Wyndham Hotels’ Microtel have also established a presence on the island.

Megaworld has begun marketing the Paragua Coastown residential units, which will range from 32-square-meter studios to 106-square-meter two-bedroom suites, and expects them to generate some 2.3 billion pesos in sales. Doubling down on Palawan, Megaworld announced in December it would spend another 7 billion pesos to develop a mixed-use complex on a 6-hectare oceanfront site in Puerto Princesa. Named Baytown Palawan, the commercial, hotel and residential project is expected to take five years to complete. “Palawan has always been a hotspot for local and international tourists,” Tan says.

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International visitors to the Philippines have gradually returned but remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Palawan isn’t the Tans’ only tourism play. They are building resorts, retail space and convention facilities across the archipelago, including tourist hotspots Boracay, Cebu and Davao. Megaworld’s hospitality operations accounted for over 5% of the company’s 2023 revenue of 69.7 billion pesos, and the company expects the business will make up at least 10% of revenue by 2028.

Andrew Tan launched Megaworld in the late 1980s, pioneering the living concept of a city within a city in the Philippines. It now counts 24 townships (with an additional seven under construction) nationwide, part of his sprawling business empire under Alliance Global comprising a controlling interest in Emperador, owner of the Dalmore whisky and Fundador brandy brands, and a stake in the Philippine franchisee of McDonalds. Tan ranked No. 11 on the Philippines’ 50 Richest 2023 list with $2.4 billion net worth.

“Expanding our townships all over the Philippines will sustain our growth as a company and allow us to also diversify our offering in the real estate industry,” says son Kevin, who is also vice chairman and CEO of Alliance Global. “Through these developments, we can make a significant impact across economic sectors.”

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December 17, 2018

The impacts of whale shark mass tourism on the coral reefs in the Philippines

by The University of Hong Kong

The collaborative research among The University of Hong Kong (HKU), the University of Guam (UoG), and the Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines (LAMAVE) shows that whale shark tourism in Tan-awan, Oslob, Philippines has led to degradation of the local coral reef ecosystem. This study, which provides the first documentation of such ecological impact locally in Tan-awan, has recently been published in the scientific journal " Environmental Management ", and provided baseline data to measure future tourism management intervention and the shift towards a more sustainable tourism model.

The Coral Biogeochemistry Lab in the School of Biological Sciences at HKU, one of the top Institutions in Asia, led a research expedition to Oslob in 2015 in collaboration with the University of Guam, the Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines and the Local Government Unit of Oslob. This small municipality on the south coast of Cebu, has become a domestic and international tourism hotspot since 2011, attracting over 300,000 visitors in 2015 and doubled since then. The mass tourism phenomenon is fueled by the year-round presence of whale sharks along the local shallow reef. This unusual aggregation is maintained by the local tourism association provisioning (feeding) the whale sharks with up to 50 tons of Uyap (sergestid) shrimps annually. While most of the studies to date focus on the whale shark population and tourism perception, this is the first study that investigates the impacts of intensive provisioning and concentrating tourism activities on the health of the largely understudied yet highly vulnerable local reef ecosystem.

The data presented in the paper shows that in comparison to a reference site further south the coast, Tan-awan is affected by greater impacts of degradation as indicated by higher macroalgae and lower coral density as well as a less diverse coral community dominated by weedy corals (Pocillopora) and stress-tolerant (Porites) corals. Furthermore, using the advanced technique of stable isotope analysis on the individual growth ring (biogenic archives) of the species studied, preliminary results reveal anthropogenic nitrogen inputs in Tan-awan.

"It is vital for all stakeholders to understand that the environmental and societal well-being go hand in hand. I hope that everyone can come to the table to contribute to management and conservation efforts to reverse the trend of reef degradation in Tan-awan". -Martin Wong, University of Hong Kong.

The finding of reef degradation in Tan-awan is alarming and requires immediate attention given reef health underpins the ecosystem services afforded to the local communities, including the important tourism sector. As the whale shark tourism is projected to grow continuously in the foreseeable future, the research team urges the need for local authorities to implement proper management strategies to mitigate the problems and risks associated with the rapid tourism development.

This collaborative research effort to document the state of reef health and nitrogen pollution sources also provide an ecological baseline for future data to compare with. Having such critical information, further monitoring programs can be carried out in order to keep reef health in check and evaluate the effectiveness of any mitigation and management measures towards reef conservation.

"Let this be a new beginning. We are positive that with this baseline data at hand the local authorities will look further into the long term and broader ecological impact of mass tourism activities, in Oslob as in many other areas in the country and put a priority into the conservation of their marine resources, shifting towards sustainable tourism and ensuring the local food security through the conservation and restoration of healthy marine ecosystems.—Dr. Ponzo Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines.

Journal information: Environmental Management

Provided by The University of Hong Kong

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April 29, 2024

Corals Are Once Again Bleaching En Masse, but Their Fate Isn’t Sealed

Amid Earth’s fourth global coral bleaching event, a leading expert says tackling climate change is the key to fighting back.

By Meghan Bartels

Exposure Labs/Getty Images

[CLIP: Theme music]

Terry Hughes: It's very stressful to spend an entire day in a plane flying over, say, 200 reefs, all of which are severely bleached.

Meghan Bartels: Earlier this month the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the International Coral Reef Initiative confirmed that the world’s fourth planetwide mass coral bleaching event is underway. Over the past 14 months scientists have documented significant bleaching in every major ocean basin. Some say that as already record-breaking sea-surface temperatures continue to rise, this is on track to become the worst mass bleaching event ever recorded.

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This is Science, Quickly , and I’m Meghan Bartels. Joining me is Terry Hughes, a marine biologist at James Cook University in Australia.

Bartels: Thanks so much for joining us. Could you start by just telling us why coral reefs are such important ecosystems?

Hughes: Yeah, coral reefs are an absolutely critical ecosystem to many hundreds of millions of people who live throughout the tropics. They're important for food security. They're important for reef tourism, which is a huge part of the economy of many countries, typically fairly small, rapidly developing countries, where employment options are often restricted. So the social and economic value of coral reefs, especially to people in the tropics, is enormous.

You know, the value of coral reefs differs to different people. Wealthy countries tend to view them as a nice place for a vacation. That's a reasonable reason for valuing coral reefs. But more importantly is the poor people who live beside them that depend on coral reefs for their food security and for the other so-called ecosystem services that coral reefs provide to societies.

Bartels: That makes sense. So scientists have determined that we’re in the middle of a global mass bleaching event. What exactly does that mean?

Hughes: Coral bleaching is a stress response by corals.

You can make a coral bleach if you torture it in any number of ways in an aquarium. If you make the salinity too high or too low, if you make the temperature too high or too low, if you add toxic chemicals or sediment, the coral will get stressed and it will lose its color.

The color comes from microscopic symbionts that live inside the tissue of the coral host, and that symbiotic relationship breaks down when the coral is stressed.

But the kinds of bleaching we've been seeing now since the 1980s around the world is driven indisputably by rising sea temperatures because nothing else is happening at that kind of scale.

We're talking thousands of kilometers of coastline or even globally, those kinds of bleaching events are triggered by exceptionally warm sea temperatures driven by anthropogenic heating, primarily from burning fossil fuels and from deforestation.

And of course, there's nowhere to hide from global warming. So even the most remote, most pristine coral reefs are vulnerable to these repeated bo- bouts of bleaching.

Sometimes there isn't actually enough time for bleaching to unfold. The corals just die from heat stress directly. They literally cook. And we saw that last summer in the Florida Keys and throughout the Caribbean where sea temperatures were off the charts. We've seen that repeatedly closer to my home in Australia on the Great Barrier Reef.

We also see a phenomenon where a coral becomes unusually colorful. It literally glows. And that's caused by a protein produced by the coral in a desperate bid to stay alive. Those proteins act as a sort of sunscreen. But it's not a very effective way of defending against record temperatures. So corals typically die within a week or two of becoming very colorful.

Bartels: How are scientists able to determine whether bleaching is happening on a global scale?

Hughes: So there are two ways to measure the extent of bleaching. One is directly through observations of individual reefs, and the other is indirectly using satellite data, which is what NOAA does. Satellite data tells you how hot the water has been for how long. And you can use that as a proxy for the intensity of bleaching.

The best way to get a regional scale picture of the extent of bleaching is to fly in a helicopter or a small plane. Or you can use a drone, but you probably need many hundreds of them to cover an area like the Great Barrier Reef. I have conducted aerial surveys of the Great Barrier Reef three times in 2016, 17 and 2020. It takes about eight days of flying in a small plane or helicopter to crisscross about a thousand reefs. And you can score the extent of bleaching on the reefs as you fly over them.

Bartels: How does it feel to see evidence of bleaching from above?

Hughes: Oh, well, when we fly over a reef with no bleaching, we literally cheer. And it's very stressful to spend an entire day in a plane flying over, say, 200 reefs, all of which are severely bleached. It's quite a confronting site, but it's the only way to get the big picture for something like the scale of the Great Barrier Reef.

And this year, the percent of the barrier reef which is severely bleached is at a record level. We've never seen a bleaching vent as extensive, spatially.

Bartels: How much of the reef is bleached, exactly?

Hughes: This year, 75 percent of the Great Barrier Reef has bleaching. The Great Barrier Reef is 2,300 kilometers long and it's up to 250 kilometers wide. It's 344,000 square kilometers in area, which is the size of Italy or Japan. So it's a big piece of real estate. And for 75 percent of it to be bleached in just one event, bearing in mind that this is the fifth event in eight years, is really very shocking.

Bartels: How are things unfolding in other regions?

Hughes: Last summer, we saw unprecedented bleaching in the Florida Keys and throughout the Caribbean. The eastern Pacific was also very bleached.

Fast forward six months and we've seen extensive bleaching throughout the Great Barrier Reef. That's 10 percent of the world's coral reefs.

There are current bleach warnings from NOAA for most of the Indian Ocean and for parts of the Coral Triangle. That's the region north of Australia that includes Indonesia, the Philippines, and six other countries.

Bartels: Is it true that bleaching doesn’t directly kill corals? How likely is it that all of these corals will survive the bleaching event?

Hughes: It's impossible that all of the corals that have bleached will all survive. Bleaching is not necessarily fatal, as you said, but often it is. And the likelihood of the corals dying depends on the severity of the bleaching and how long it lasts. It also depends on the severity of the heat stress. And heat stress this year in both the northern and southern hemispheres is at record levels. It's off the charts. So already in Australia, I've seen reports of up to 80% loss of bleached corals on some of the badly affected portions of the Great Barrier Reef. A mass bleaching event is by definition a mass mortality event.

The reality is we are losing literally billions of corals on the world's coral reefs.

Bartels: What do you find most concerning about the trends you’re seeing?

Hughes: So the concerning thing about these bleaching events, whether they're global or regional in scale, is that the gap between one bleaching event and the next is getting shorter and shorter. And those gaps are critically important. They're the window of opportunity for the fast-growing corals that are better at recovery to regain a foothold.

Ecologically, recovery means the replacement of dead corals by new live ones, ideally of the same species and eventually of the same size. And we're just not seeing that ecological recovery to the extent that we used to see when the gaps between these bleaching events was much longer.

So on the Barrier Reef, we were very lucky to have a 14-year gap between mass coral bleaching in 2002 and 2016. And that was sufficient for a half-decent recovery. But since then, we've had gaps of three years, two years and one year.

So the Barrier Reef seems to be settling into about a 50% chance of bleaching occurring again in each summer. And that's really horrific in terms of the capacity of the reef to bounce back.

Ironically, the corals that come back the quickest are also among the most heat sensitive. It's a bit like fire in a terrestrial landscape where a forest is destroyed and flammable grasses come back quicker than the trees do, which makes that ecosystem, ironically, more vulnerable to climate change, to driving fires. Exactly the same thing is happening on the world's coral reefs.

And of course, corals are critically important for the habitat that they provide to fish and crustaceans, all the iconic biodiversity that coral reefs are famous for. So when you lose a lot of corals, which you're seeing, sadly, everywhere now, it alters the entire ecosystem. It's like having a rainforest without the rainforest trees.

Bartels: Of course, there’s a lot of research looking for ways to protect coral reefs and make them more resilient to climate change. Is any of that making a difference?

Hughes: One of the most confronting aspects of the current global event is that it is destroying existing attempts to restore coral reefs. So in Florida, we saw that coral nurseries literally cooked.

We're seeing the same thing happening on the Great Barrier Reef, where many of the intervention trials are now failing, because putting more corals back out is really a death sentence as temperatures continue to rise.

So it's short-term. It might be worth doing at a high-value tourism site, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that we can save coral reefs by planting a few acres of corals.

Bartels: What do we need to do in order to keep corals alive in the long term?

Hughes: There's only one answer to that question, and that is we need sea temperatures to stabilize. Local management, looking after things like overfishing and pollution, is important, but it's not going to stop the intrusion of hot water.

Even the most pristine, most remote, best-managed coral reefs in the world are being hammered by repeated bouts of mass coral bleaching. And so the overwhelming challenge is for all countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible.

Bartels: As someone who has firsthand experience seeing these bleaching events unfold, what do you want people to know?

Hughes: I'll be underwater on the southern Great Barrier Reef at study sites that I have been studying since 1985, revealing my age. And I'm dreading it because the reef where my study sites are in the south has been exposed to the highest level of heat stress it has ever seen. And we already know that 80 percent of the corals there are bleached, and I'm fully expecting the majority of those to be dead or dying.

My message is we shouldn't give up on the world's coral reefs. They're just too valuable to lose, but restoration's not the way to save them. The way to save them is to deal with greenhouse gas emissions, and that's, of course, much, much harder.

Bartels: Science, Quickly is produced by Rachel Feltman, Kelso Harper, Carin Leong, Madison Goldberg, and Jeff DelViscio. Today’s episode was hosted by me, Meghan Bartels. Elah Feder, Alexa Lim, Madison Goldberg and Anaissa Ruiz Tejada edit our show, with fact checking from Shayna Posses and Aaron Shattuck. Our theme music was composed by Dominic Smith. Subscribe to Scientific American for more up-to-date and in-depth science news.

For Science, Quickly , this is Meghan Bartels.

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Appendix B: The Communist Insurgency through Time

Calming the Long War in the Philippine Countryside

Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.

• "> Download PDF Full Report (en)

What’s new?  The Philippine Maoists, one of Asia’s longest-running communist insurgencies, are on the defensive, with Manila pushing for definitive victory through counter-insurgent operations and development initiatives. Fighting has fallen in intensity nationwide, but pockets of conflict remain in some of the country’s poorest and most remote areas.

Why does it matter?  While the government has indisputably weakened the rebels, somewhere between 1,200 and 2,000 fighters remain under arms. Their elusiveness and residual community support mean that efforts to vanquish the guerrillas on the battlefield will be arduous and prone to spurring new manifestations of armed conflict. 

What should be done?  Both sides should look to fresh peace talks, due to begin soon, as the best route to settling the conflict. To overcome the mutual distrust that scuppered previous negotiations, government and rebels should craft steps to reduce violence and build confidence before turning to major points on the agenda.

Executive Summary

Conflict between the Philippine government and communist rebels persists despite the state’s attempts to force the insurgents’ final surrender. Since peace talks collapsed in 2017, Manila has tried to defeat the rebels by combining military pressure with development projects in remote villages across the country. The strategy seems to be paying off. Estimated rebel numbers now stand between 1,200 and 2,000 – far from the 25,000-strong force of the 1980s – while fighting is confined to largely impoverished territorial redoubts. But the rebels still manage to defy predictions of their demise. Clashes caused the deaths of at least 250 fighters and civilians in 2023. To mitigate the impact of conflict, the government should seize the opportunity of a fresh round of peace talks expected to begin soon by crafting concrete steps to reduce violence, build confidence between the sides and address some of the rebels’ substantive demands. Authorities should also seek to overcome lingering mistrust of the state in rural areas by curbing military and police abuses, as well as redoubling efforts to improve socio-economic conditions.

Over almost five decades of conflict, Manila has relied mainly on counter-insurgency campaigns to thwart the communist rebels, while making occasional forays into peace talks. During his term of office from 2016 to 2022, President Rodrigo Duterte initiated a peace process that broke down amid resurging violence. Since then, Manila has battled to increase the scope and pace of counter-insurgency operations, partly through an inter-agency mechanism known as the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict. Determined to finish off the insurgency, the government has endeavoured to expand state presence and deliver basic services in the most conflict-affected regions. Following the killing of several high-ranking commanders over the last three years, as well as the death of the group’s founder, Jose Maria Sison, in December 2022, the rebels have found themselves increasingly adrift and on the defensive. Arrests and surrenders of fighters have come at a steady clip.

These battlefield gains have nevertheless fallen short of achieving a definitive end to the conflict. Without doubt, some Philippine regions have regained peace and stability. The Davao region and parts of central Mindanao, as well as some provinces in Luzon and the Visayas, have witnessed a major reduction in conflict and seen modest economic improvements. At the same time, violence continues to claim lives and warp ties between state and society in pockets of land across the archipelago. Long an insurgent stronghold, the southernmost island of Mindanao still has several areas under rebel sway despite the counter-insurgency campaign. In the Visayas, a few hundred guerrillas are trying to hold back the military’s push to dislodge them from their traditional bastions in Negros and Samar, where economic divides remain stark and human rights abuses by both the military and the rebels persist. 

Most of the communities caught up in the violence are rural and poor. Indigenous peoples often bear the brunt of the conflict, which in some regions has been characterised by sudden flare-ups of fighting, abuse of civilians and profound damage to local economies. Manila’s campaign has also featured extensive use of the practice of red-tagging, referring to the authorities’ sometimes over-reaching efforts to prosecute or otherwise harass people or organisations suspected of being associated with the communist movement. 

As it proceeds with its campaign, the government will likely be able to further dent the rebels’ capacity to operate. But bringing an end to the decades-old insurgency through military means will not be easy. Whether the insurgents can survive a further wave of military pressure is uncertain, but for now it is too early to speak of total rebel collapse. The communist movement has demonstrated in the past its capacity to overcome major losses and adapt to adverse circumstances. Moreover, there is a risk of escalation: some rebels may decide to form splinter groups or fuse with criminal outfits, thus perpetuating deadly conflict in new ways. 

Against this backdrop, the announcement of a return to talks, which surprised many, represents an opportunity that should not be missed. To ensure that these talks do not suffer the same fate as the round that collapsed in 2017, Manila and the rebels need to focus from the start on agreeing to concrete steps to reduce vio-lence and build trust. These confidence building measures might include guaran-teed freedom of movement for rebel negotiators and local or temporary ceasefires. Progress in these areas could help establish the foundations for discussions about substantive reforms long demanded by the rebels, including thorny issues relating to rural development. 

Even as it pushes forward with these negotiations, Manila should also recali-brate its inter-agency task force’s efforts to deliver development projects that are better tailored to rural areas. Stronger oversight, a focus on community-driven de-velopment and curbs on the crackdown on suspected communist sympathisers would give the task force much greater credibility. The government should also work through officials, national agencies and the police to halt abuses committed in the name of counter-insurgency, while improving its relations with civil society organisations operating in conflict-affected areas. Both rebels and the armed forc-es, meanwhile, should curtail violations of international humanitarian law for the sake of civilians caught in the crossfire.

Absent a negotiated peace, it is hard to know when this insurgency rooted in the 1960s, and with a demonstrated capacity for longevity, will be over. Military pres-sure and a counter-insurgent offensive have whittled the rebels down to a fraction of their former strength, but so long as they remain active and able to draw on the support of disgruntled rural dwellers, peace talks will offer the best route to bring-ing an end to the conflict.

Manila/Brussels, 19 April 2024

I. Introduction

For more than 50 years, the Philippine government has been in conflict with the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). [1] Launched in 1969, the communist rebellion is among Asia’s oldest insurgencies, having outlasted seven Filipino presidents. [2] To date, fighting between the NPA and the state has claimed at least 40,000 lives – rebels, soldiers and civilians – the vast majority of them in the conflict’s early phases. [3] Today, the CPP says its armed wing is active in “more or less 70” of the country’s 82 provinces. [4] But the conflict is concentrated in a few areas, particularly northern Mindanao, southern Luzon and parts of the Visayas, a set of smaller islands in the middle of the country, with clashes between the sides accounting for at least 220 fatalities in 2023. [5] Some of the movement’s leaders, including its negotiating panel, live in exile in the Netherlands.

The CPP’s belief in the need for “national democratic revolution” stems from its ideology, Marxism-Leninism-Maoism. With a mission that it associates with anti-imperialism and social justice, the group follows Mao Zedong’s “protracted people’s war” strategy, which calls for armed struggle in the countryside to encircle cities and, eventually, take over the reins of government. It says it will fight until the “root causes” of its rebellion – in a spokesperson’s words, “poverty, longstanding exploitation and oppression” – are no more. [6] These ills, it says, result from imperialism, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism.

Successive Philippine governments have acknowledged the social problems the insurgency claims to be fighting to resolve, but Manila nevertheless sees the rebellion as an armed enemy bent on seizing power. Fighters attack the army and police and used to run what were in effect parallel governments in remote areas. Despite differences between the wings of the communist movement, the military and police look at it as one interconnected web under the party’s control. 

[1] For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°202, The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines: Tactics and Talks , 11 February 2011. The National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDF), founded in 1973, negotiates with the Philippine government on the party’s behalf and is an umbrella of different underground organisations allied with it. The CPP-NPA-NDF structure follows the three-part division into party, army and united front – what Mao termed the “three magic weapons” – that is typical among communist movements.

[2] For a historical overview, see Gregg Jones, Red Revolution: Inside the Philippine Guerrilla Movement (Boulder, 1989); and William Chapman, Inside the Philippine Revolution: The New People’s Army and Its Struggle for Power (London, 2021). 

[3] Crisis Group Report, The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines: Tactics and Talks , p. 1.  While the number of casualties has declined in recent years, the conflict still kills hundreds every year.  Data on casualties since 2010 is scarce, but Crisis Group estimates that at least 3,000 people have been killed and over 2,000 wounded in this period.

[4] Crisis Group correspondence, Marco Valbuena, CPP chief information officer, 24 July 2023.

[5]   Crisis Group data. 

[6]   Crisis Group correspondence, Ka Ma. Roja Banua, NDF-Bikol spokesperson, 4 July 2023.

Bodies allied with the communists, ranging from trade unions to agricultural associations, some of which are grouped under National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDF) while others remain formally independent, are frequent targets for state crackdowns. Manila’s effort to expose these links – and, in some cases, harass the individuals or groups in question – is known as red-tagging. [1] Manila proscribes the political and military wings of the movement and the NDF on the grounds that they are terrorist organisations. [2]

Nonetheless, Manila has periodically negotiated with the rebels, who are represented in talks by the NDF. [3] After the 1986 ouster of President Ferdinand Marcos, during which the insurgency grew in strength, successive administrations – from the one headed by Corazon Aquino (1986-1992) to the one helmed by her son Benigno Aquino (2010-2016) – held peace talks with the communist group, but with few results. [4] Norway facilitated the intermittent talks from 2001 until President Rodrigo Duterte called them off in 2017. [5] Even so, in November 2023 Manila and the rebels once again pledged to resume talks in the near future. [6]

This report assesses the state of the decades-old conflict and suggests ways to take advantage of the opportunity created by prospective talks, as well as offering other recommendations for conflict mitigation. In addition to fresh research, it draws upon an extensive review of scholarly literature, historical documents, military writings and CPP publications. Research was conducted in Manila and other parts of the country, including almost a dozen conflict-affected provinces, mostly in southern Luzon, Mindanao and the Visayas, between mid-2020 and late 2023. It consists of more than 160 interviews with members of the government and the CPP negotiating panels, rebel cadres and commanders, surrendered rebels, women ex-rebels and activists, military officers, local government officials, civil society representatives, Indigenous and community leaders, church officials, analysts and diplomats. [7] Reflecting gender dynamics in the upper echelons of Philippine institutions, 50 of Crisis Group’s interlocutors – less than half – were women. 

[1] S ome members of legal left-wing organisations might also belong to the NDF, CPP or even the NPA, but others do not, though they may sympathise with the armed struggle.  Probing these relationships is hampered not only by secrecy, but also by the real possibility of harm coming to those who are “red-tagged” by assertions of a connection. Red-tagged individuals have been victims of extrajudicial killings. Red-tagging has also extended to international non-governmental organisations such as Oxfam. Mara Cepeda, “Red-tagged Oxfam, NCCP slam military for ‘malicious, careless’ attack”, Rappler , 6 November 2019.

[2] The CPP-NPA, but not the NDF, is also listed as a terrorist organisation by the U.S., the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

[3] In contrast to the failure of talks with the communist rebels, Manila reached a major agreement with the largest of the Moro Muslim separatist groups in 2014. See Crisis Group Asia Report N°240, The Philippines: Breakthrough in Mindanao , 5 December 2012. 

[4] Almost 25,000 fighters were enlisted in the insurgency when the country was under martial law, under President Ferdinand Marcos, Sr., from 1972 to 1986. Appendix B details the various presidents’ approaches to the conflict.

[5] The Norwegian government provided space, opportunities and, when needed, advice to both sides. Decisions are left to the parties. 

[6] See “ Oslo Joint Communique ”, 23 November 2023; and “Joint Statement Signed by the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines”, 23 November 2023. 

[7] This report uses the terms CPP to refer to the communist movement’s political leadership, NPA to refer to its armed component and NDF to refer to the negotiating panel.

II. From Peace Talks to Counter-insurgency

Following the breakdown of peace talks in 2017, with violence escalating, the government tackled the insurgency with a dual approach. [1] First, it set out on a military campaign to “make the NPA irrelevant”, in the words of a senior commander; and secondly, it sought to address the conflict’s “root causes”, particularly perceived injustices and poverty in the country’s remote areas, which it believes account for the insurgency’s resilience. [2]  

In 2018, then-President Duterte began deploying more troops to Bicol, Samar and Negros regions – all hotbeds of insurgency. [3] The military killed front commanders and members of the CPP’s Central Committee, including figures such as Benito and Wilma Tiamzon, Jorge “Ka Oris” Madlos, Antonio Cabanatan, Mariano Adlao, Julios Giron and Menandro “Bok” Villanueva. [4] The loss of strongholds and safe areas, as well as the armed forces’ technological superiority, have posed major challenges to the insurgents’ logistics and communications. [5] Especially under Duterte, but also under his successor Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., the military and police have harassed and on occasion directly attacked left-wing organisations and activists accused of being affiliated with the communist movement. [6] In parallel, the government launched development projects in the countryside in a bid to weaken the rebels’ support base.

[1] At the beginning of Duterte’s term, the rebel fighters were said to number around 3,000-4,000. Women have long been part of the movement as combatants, political cadres and members of allied civil society organisations, but there are no credible estimates of how many.

[2] Crisis Group interviews, Manila, March-April 2023.

[3] “ Memorandum Order 32: Reinforcing the Guidelines for the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police in the Implementation of Measures to Suppress and Prevent Lawless Violence ”,  Office of the President of the Philippines, 22 November 2018.

[4] A long-time observer of the conflict said the government also killed party cadres who were “doves” open to talks. Crisis Group interview, Manila, 2 September 2022. 

[5] Crisis Group interview, source close to Caraga-based NPA, 12 March 2023.

[6] Crisis Group interviews, Commission on Human Rights officials, Manila, 1 June 2020; civil society figures, Manila, 31 January and 14 February 2023. 

A. The Failure of Peace Talks

After his election in July 2016, Duterte, who presented himself as the first “leftist” Philippine president, extended several olive branches to the communist rebels. [1] He offered them positions in his cabinet and freed nineteen top cadres from prison. [2] He also sent a delegation to hold preliminary talks in Norway. [3] Composed of Jesus Dureza, Silvestre Bello III and Hernani Braganza, whom the rebel negotiators considered “old comrades” – all had been government emissaries under previous administrations – the delegation got a warm welcome. [4] At first, Duterte’s gamble seemed to have paid off. [5] During the first three rounds of talks, held from August 2016 to January 2017, the parties made major progress on issues that had derailed past negotiations, including separate unilateral ceasefires and a joint framework for a comprehensive agreement. [6]  

But despite the breakthroughs, violence and unresolved differences soon threw the talks off track. In late January 2017, with the third round under way, a six-month ceasefire declared by both sides the previous July collapsed as soldiers and rebels clashed in Makilala, Cotabato, leaving a communist fighter dead. [7] Meanwhile, negotiations stalled over issues such as amnesty for rebels, prisoner releases and the communists’ socio-economic demands. While the sides endeavoured to bridge the gaps, through both official and back channels, it was not enough to break the deadlock. 

A series of events deepened the impasse. On 23 May 2017, a major battle erupted between government forces and jihadists in Mindanao’s Marawi City, leading Duterte to declare martial law across the island the same day. [8] Believing they were also being targeted, communist leaders ordered their fighters to attack government forces, both in Mindanao and across the country. [9] Dureza, the negotiator, responded by announcing the government’s withdrawal from talks. [10] Manila then cancelled a round of back-channel conversations planned for July after the rebels attacked the Presidential Security Group, a close protection unit tasked with guarding the president, in Cotabato, and another round slated for November after a rebel ambush took the lives of a police officer and a four-month-old baby in Bukidnon. [11] On 23 November, Duterte signed Proclamation No. 360, formally terminating the talks. Two weeks later, he issued Proclamation No. 374, designating the CPP-NPA as a terrorist organisation. 

[1]   Before assuming the presidency, Duterte was mayor of Davao City, Mindanao, where he had good relations with local NPA commanders.

[2] Many saw the release of Benito and Wilma Tiamzon – the CPP chairman and secretary general, respectively – as risky, as they were the highest-ranking rebels in custody at the time and were considered hardliners. Crisis Group telephone interview, former top cadre, 25 August 2022.

[3]   “Duterte team, NDF ‘optimistic’ after day 1 of peace talks in Norway”, CNN Philippines, 15 June 2016. 

[4] Crisis Group interview, Satur Ocampo, NDF Philippines adviser, Manila, May 2020. The NDF panel and working groups included several women, while the government’s team had at least one woman member.

[5] The Philippine public was supportive of the talks. Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz, “8 in 10 Filipinos in favor of peace talks: Pulse”, Manila Bulletin , 9 May 2017.

[6] Both declared indefinite unilateral ceasefires for the first time and agreed to work on a mutual ceasefire agreement. According to Crisis Group data, casualties dropped by more than half during the ceasefire.

[7]   “Soldiers, NPA break ceasefire in Cotabato clash”, Rappler , 23 January 2017. The NDF negotiating panel said the NPA kept honouring the ceasefire, despite counting 500 violations by the army in 43 provinces, until the situation became “untenable”. Crisis Group interview, NDF panellist, Utrecht, 14 December 2022. 

[8]   The battle, which lasted five months and displaced 400,000 people, pitted the army against a local jihadist coalition that had pledged allegiance to ISIS. See Crisis Group Commentary, “Philippines: Addressing Islamist Militancy after the Battle for Marawi”, 17 July 2018.

[9]   “CPP orders NPA to launch more attacks in Mindanao, other regions”, Inquirer , 25 May 2017.   The NDF panel said the command to intensify attacks was not intended to undermine the negotiations, adding that they asked the leadership to reconsider the order. But the episode undermined trust between the sides just as the president was becoming increasingly reliant on the military due to the violence in Marawi.

[10]   “Gov’t ‘will not proceed’ peace talks with communist rebels”, CNN Philippines, 27 May 2017.  

[11] As of January 2024, the unit is known as Presidential Security Command. 

Efforts to negotiate persisted even after the talks formally ended. The negotiating panels held four additional rounds of back-channel talks from March to June 2018, during which they signed an Interim Peace Agreement. [1] But when the government negotiators presented the document to Duterte in a June cabinet meeting, the military asked the president not to approve it. He did not. [2] Hopes early in the COVID-19 pandemic that Duterte would rekindle the peace process were dashed, as each side accused the other of violating its unilateral ceasefire. [3]

In hindsight, three causes combined to undermine what was arguably the most promising peace initiative in decades between Manila and the Maoist insurgency. The first was mutual distrust. The good-will between the two negotiating panels, which was based on their personal relationships, did not extend to the institutions they represented, especially on the government side. The armed forces were openly sceptical of negotiations and insisted (though not successfully) on setting ceasefires as a pre-condition for talks. [4] From the rebels’ perspective, the military had a vested interest in wanting the conflict to continue. The second major hurdle was the communists’ adherence to a strategy of “talking while fighting”. [5] Although the rebels demonstrated that they could stick to a long unilateral ceasefire and were willing to enter a coordinated, bilateral truce, they were also quick to resume attacks once the ceasefire looked shaky. Even before the talks collapsed, rebel units engaged in actions that were, if not hostile, at the very least provocative. [6]

Finally, the process would have benefited from the support of an independent third party. Norway’s mandate, which required Oslo to work with both parties to facilitate talks but without seeking to steer the negotiations, held it back from taking a more direct mediation role. Meanwhile, the lack of independent oversight and monitoring of the unilateral ceasefires proved damaging. [7] Without a trusted third party, whether local or international, belief in the peace process withered on both sides.

[1] The text contained sections on amnesty for imprisoned rebels, agrarian reform and rural development, national industrialisation and economic development, and coordinated unilateral ceasefires. Crisis Group interview, Fidel Agcaoili, chief negotiator, NDF panel, Utrecht, May 2020.

[2]   Crisis Group interview, Lieutenant General Antonio Parlade, Jr., Manila, 25 May 2020.  

[3] The CPP Central Committee extended its ceasefire for two weeks, but the government did not reciprocate, citing rebel attacks on the ground.

[4]   Crisis Group interview, Lieutenant General Antonio Parlade, Jr., Manila, 25 May 2020. During the six months of unilateral ceasefires while the talks were proceeding, both sides accused each other of violations. 

[5] Previous rounds of talks, for example during the Benigno Aquino administration, had also broken down for this reason. Some of the Maoist leaders disagreed that the rebels should ever suspend the armed struggle.

[6] Crisis Group interview, former cadre, Tacloban City, 10 March 2023.

[7] The parties have tried to set up a monitoring body in the past. In 1998, the government and rebels signed the Comprehensive Agreement on Respect for Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law, which paved the way for creating a Joint Monitoring Committee to investigate violations of the accord. Inaugurated in 2004, the committee was reactivated in 2017 during the talks but soon disbanded. Some believe, however, that the committee has its merits and could be revived. Crisis Group telephone interview, source close to the NDF, 27 February 2024. 

B. A Whole-of-Government Offensive

After peace talks collapsed, Manila grew increasingly confident that it could sap the rebel group’s support and eventually defeat the rebels. To this end, in 2018 the Philippine government introduced a new framework to deal with the insurgency through Executive Order 70, which created the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC). [1] The government presents the NTF-ELCAC as a means of coordinating various approaches aimed at ending the insurgency, including fighting the movement’s armed wing, weakening its political fronts and tackling the rebellion’s root causes by delivering better public services in the country’s rural areas. [2] Provided with generous funding, this nexus of military and civilian agencies is the outcome of decades of counter-insurgent experimentation. [3]

Twelve “clusters” of work operate within this holistic model. The   Strategic Communication Cluster, for example, works on strengthening the government’s propaganda machine, which many officials believe has been its greatest weakness in the fight with the insurgents to date. [4] The Local Government Cluster brings together the Department of Interior and local governments to build support for counter-insurgency. [5] Through the   International Engagement Cluster, the government conducts advocacy campaigns targeted at international organisations, foreign embassies and Filipinos living overseas. [6]  

Most controversial is the Legal Cooperation Cluster, through which the government files criminal complaints against suspected NPA fighters, CPP community organisers and party supporters, as well as against members of organisations that are not outlawed but that the military believes to be fronts for the movement. Using the Anti-Terror Law, which was passed in 2020 and largely upheld by the Supreme Court, the government has piled legal pressure on suspected rebel supporters, with national and local courts issuing indictments on a variety of charges. [7] Such red-tagging of left-wing sympathisers rose sharply during President Duterte’s term, especially following the law’s enactment, with a “chilling impact” on civil society. [8]  

Red-tagging is a broad term. It can colloquially refer to law enforcement efforts to capture insurgents or CPP political cadres or to expose rebels working with legal political groups. [9] Much more frequently, however, it denotes a campaign aimed at people on the fringes of the communist movement. As part of this campaign, the state or government-friendly media will accuse individuals of ties with certain groups, which are “leftist” in the sense that they pursue objectives shared with the communists, and then sometimes link them to the movement itself. [10] Many court cases rely on suspicions of “association” with the rebels. [11] According to civil society figures, these charges are often based on no more than hearsay. [12]  

[1] The ideas behind the NTF-ELCAC predate 2018, as many military officers and government officials had long recognised the need for an inter-agency body to steer a national campaign. In the Davao and Caraga regions of Eastern Mindanao, a similar approach was already in place from 2016. Crisis Group interviews, Davao, 5 February 2023; Manila, 1 December 2022. President Marcos, Jr. has delegated responsibility for the NTF-ECLAC to his vice president, Sara Duterte, who is the former president’s daughter.

[2] Critics note that the task force portrays itself as a peacebuilding mechanism though it remains a counter-insurgency tool. Crisis Group correspondence, peace scholar, 12 January 2024. 

[3] For an overview of how past experiences fed into the current approach, see Glenda Gloria, “War with the NPA, war without end”, Rappler , 29 February 2020. 

[4]   Crisis Group interview, Lieutenant General Antonio Parlade, Jr., Manila, 25 May 2020.

[5] To encourage local administrations to help curb the insurgency, Manila and the military have worked with many municipalities to declare NPA rebels personae non grata. 

[6] In February 2019, the NTF-ELCAC organised a “truth caravan” in Europe, visiting Bosnia, Switzerland and Belgium. In Brussels, it urged the Belgian government and the EU to cut funding for 30 NGOs it accused of being CPP-NPA fronts. Crisis Group interview, Lieutenant General Antonio Parlade, Jr., Manila, 25 May 2020.

[7] This law, which replaced the 2007 Human Security Act, led to the arrest of dozens. The state has used it to designate several other individuals as terrorists. Procedural rules, including guidance on implementation , that clarified aspects of the law, took effect on 15 January 2024. Executive Order 70, which created the NTF-ELCAC, is seen as another legal basis for state action against communist supporters. Crisis Group interview, activist, Manila, 14 February 2023. Crisis Group correspondence, human rights observer, 21 March 2024. The alleged crimes include arson and murder but also material support for terrorism, such as financing. The authorities often bring these charges against civil society organisations and activists.

[8] Red-tagging predates the Duterte presidency, but after the peace talks broke down it became a core part of Manila’s counter-insurgency approach without ever being made explicit policy. Crisis Group interviews, observers and civil society activists, March 2024. 

[9] Critics of the government acknowledge that justified law enforcement actions do not represent unfair persecution of activists, which is what they regard as “actual” red tagging. Crisis Group interviews, local and international observers, March 2024. 

[10]   For example, the National Federation of Sugar Workers or political organisations associated with the Makabayan Bloc in Congress. The government sometimes claims that these groups provide direct support to the rebels. Crisis Group interview, 1 March 2024. 

[11] On the repercussions of red-tagging for left-wing activists and sympathisers, see Ruby Rosselle L. Tugade, “Persistent Red-Tagging in the Philippines as Violation of the Principle of Distinction in International Humanitarian Law”, Philippine Law Journal , vol. 95, no. 3 (2022). ACLED recorded “nearly 50 red-tagging related violent events targeting civilians” between 2020 and June 2023. 

[12]   Crisis Group telephone interviews, human rights observer, Manila, 31 January 2023; human rights lawyer, 27 February 2024.

Red-tagging has done no small amount of harm. Legal powers have allegedly been misused on occasion, including in cases where individuals have accused political opponents or other foes of communist ties in order to bring them into disrepute. [1] Activists and development workers in areas under communist influence feel the threat of red-tagging keenly: knowing that they might face charges of association with or support for rebels makes it hard for them to operate independently from the state. [2] Human rights groups have also reported cases of extrajudicial violence against activists and other civilians who were not members of the communist movement, though they may have been sympathetic to it. [3]

Government officials deny there is any such thing as a red-tagging policy, but they insist that the 2021 law and other provisions give them the prerogative to pursue entities with links to the communist movement to help them fight the insurgency. [4] Even so, they recognise that in some cases local authorities’ “overzealousness” stirs controversy. [5] Some commentators say pressure on left-wing sympathisers has eased slightly under President Marcos, Jr., though others see no meaningful change in the campaign. [6]

Another objective of the task force, through the Local Peace Engagement Cluster, is to encourage dialogue with insurgents in conflict hotspots. But such local peace talks have never really come to fruition. The rebels have not named a negotiating panel for such talks, leaving the military and local governments to engage only with small NPA field units or individual fighters. [7] In addition, well-meaning local officials have felt that the communists’ terrorist designation tied their hands. [8] In any case, most such efforts seemed aimed at persuading rebels to surrender, rather than fostering genuine dialogue. [9] Indeed, seeking surrenders has become a flagship policy for tackling the insurgency. 

An inter-agency body called Task Force Balik-Loob supervises the reintegration of rebels who surrender into civilian life. [10] Target beneficiaries include NPA fighters and sometimes their immediate family members, as well as the movement’s community organisers and supporters. [11] While the government claims that over 20,000 rebels have so far returned to law-abiding lives, the proportion of that number who represent actual combatants as opposed to sympathisers or relatives is unclear. [12] Whether or not they were fighters, most of those deemed former rebels stay in “halfway homes” or in military camps. Provision of housing, however, has been patchy, and those who have surrendered noted that other promises, such as cash or livelihood assistance, were not honoured, either. [13]

[1]   Crisis Group interview, human rights activist, Manila, 14 February 2023. Crisis Group correspondence, human rights observer, 21 March 2024. 

[2]   For example, a humanitarian organisation in southern Luzon was red-tagged after the authorities got an anonymous call telling them it was CPP-linked. The group was forced to stop its work to protect staff.  Crisis Group interview, Sorsogon, 16 April 2023. Several other organisations shared similar experiences with Crisis Group. 

[3] Crisis Group interviews, human rights activists, January-July 2023. See also “ The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines: A ‘Protracted People’s War’ Continues ”, ACLED, 13 July 2023. 

[4] Several journalists and observers share this view, saying there is nothing wrong with calling out groups or individuals as CPP members. In some cases, they say, arrests – but not killings – are justified. Crisis Group telephone interviews, 7 April and 22 July 2023.

[5]   Crisis Group interview, task force officials, Manila, 26 February 2024.

[6] “ Philippines: ‘Red-Tagging’ Puts Activists at Risk ”, Human Rights Watch, 11 January 2024. An international observer concurs that while Manila has scaled back its rhetoric against left-wing sympathisers, red-tagging continues at the local level, especially where the communist movement is active and the army’s field commanders are particularly hostile to it. Crisis Group interview, 1 March 2024. 

[7]   Crisis Group interview, F i del Agcaoili, chief negotiator, NDF panel, Utrecht, May 2020.

[8] Crisis Group interviews, provincial officials from Laguna, 18 October 2022. In Davao, for example, Mayor Sara Duterte was open to talking to insurgents under the local framework, but once her father designated the movement a terrorist organisation, she abandoned the idea. Crisis Group interview, Davao City, 17 February 2023.

[9] Manila cites cases of “local peace agreements” (for example, in Zamboanga region), but they are few. Moreover, it was often the rebels’ supporters who struck the deals, rather than the NPA itself. Document made available to Crisis Group.

[10] Rebel reintegration occurs in four phases: the police or military certifies the individual as a bona fide combatant after reviewing intelligence; security officials interview the ex-combatant; the person is officially enrolled in the reintegration program; and, lastly, the government provides assistance. Crisis Group interviews, provincial government officials from Laguna, 18 October 2022. Immediate family members can also benefit from relocation programs and psycho-social support.

[11]   Beneficiaries receive livelihood assistance, remuneration commensurate to the value of firearms surrendered, temporary shelter, medical and housing assistance packages, legal assistance for any pending criminal complaint and a conditional cash transfer. 

[12]   There is evidence that at least some of the surrenders have been staged. Critics also allege that the government is inducing movement sympathisers to surrender by such means as intimidating the families of combatants or promising financial compensation that is never paid. Crisis Group interviews, church and civil society leaders, Manila, 1 June 2020; activists, Quezon City, 14 February and 21 April 2023.

[13]   The military also complains that it does not receive the funds budgeted for housing former rebels, forcing it to spend its own. Crisis Group interviews, August-September 2023. 

C. The Battle for the Countryside

The Philippine military’s long experience fighting in the countryside has shaped the government’s strategy for defeating the insurgents. While tactics vary from place to place, the rural campaign aims to win “hearts and minds” while applying attritional military pressure, with institutional and financial support from Manila, particularly the counter-insurgent task force. According to the military, as of May 2023 only 200 villages were still under the communist movement’s influence – a stark contrast to the estimated 1,381 villages at the end of 2008. At the same time, the military is monitoring 300 villages where insurgents are believed to be poised to rebound. [1]  At present, the government says, the rebels are operating in eleven “weakened” fronts across the country. [2]

Unlike past campaigns, which consisted exclusively of “search and destroy” missions, the present counter-insurgency effort aims to establish the state’s writ. After combat “clears” a village of rebels, the armed forces often use paramilitaries (known as Citizen Armed Force Geographical Units) or peacekeeping teams made up of villagers to patrol it. “My job as a commander is to focus on the armed component”, explained an officer. “We need to deter them and make sure they will not come back”. [3] The armed forces also try to convince rebel supporters to switch their allegiance to the state, organising them into grassroots associations and undertaking development projects to that end. 

A vital part of this strategy is to ensure that state services reach the village level. [4] To obtain funds from the national Barangay Development Program, which finances projects in conflict-affected communities, villages must first secure the military’s certification that they are “insurgency-free”, after which civilian state agencies are meant to undertake various initiatives, ranging from developing water infrastructure and clinics to building roads that can be used to get farm goods to market. [5] In reality, the military often remains in the driver’s seat. [6] “We know who are the poorest of the poor, and what they need, because we are on the ground”, noted a commander. [7]

[1] John Mendoza, “NPA present in more than 200 barangays, says AFP”, Inquirer , 11 July 2023; Joviland Rita, “AFP looking at more or less 300 areas as possible election hot spots”, GMA News, 24 May 2023. See also “From Insurgency to Stability: Volume II, Insights from Selected Case Studies ” , RAND Corporation, 2011, pp. 16, 37.

[2] Priam Nepomuceno, “NTF-ELCAC: Removal of ‘mass bases’ greatly weakened NPA”, Philippine News Agency, 1 April 2024.

[3] The military uses intelligence assets and local officials to watch out for returning insurgents. Crisis Group interview, military commander, 11 April 2023. 

[4] The current approach draws heavily on a counter-insurgency manual written by an army officer who defected to the NPA but later surrendered. Victor M. Corpus, Silent War  (Quezon City, 1989).

[5] Declaring areas “insurgency-free” is a staple of Manila’s efforts to showcase victory. Sceptics, however, look at these claims as politically motivated and sometimes groundless. In September 2023, for example, the NPA killed five paramilitaries and injured three soldiers in a Quezon province town that had been proclaimed “insurgency-free” months before. Crisis Group interview, Quezon City, 8 September 2023.

[6] The CPP considers these efforts to be “equivalent to military rule”. Crisis Group correspondence, Marco Valbuena, CPP chief information officer, 24 July 2023. The government has tried to let the civilian bureaucracy take the lead, but with mixed results so far, as the military tends to assume it needs to do the job. Crisis Group telephone interview, senior commander, 15 July 2023.

[7] Crisis Group interview, Quezon City, 11 April 2023. 

In many conflict-hit areas, development projects have had the desired effect. Villagers in such places told Crisis Group said they had “felt the government’s presence for the very first time”. [1] The promise of funds has encouraged village officials to cooperate with the authorities rather than turn back to the rebels, whose influence historically tended to rise whenever residents felt abandoned by the state. Development projects have had the most pronounced success in villages where mayors are committed to them, managing to raise additional funds and seeing the work through to completion. [2]

The process of bringing better public services to the countryside, however, is not free of administrative failings. Selection of eligible villages has been one source of controversy. The island of Palawan received around 700 million pesos ($12 million) though NPA guerrillas there are few. [3]  On Mindoro, government officials promised community leaders development funding, which led the locals to scramble for rebel surrenders only to be told later that their village was not eligible. [4]  Other village officials also complained about funds that never arrived or came in amounts much lower than expected. [5] Furthermore, state spending on the program varies greatly from year to year. [6] The way development projects are chosen has also come in for its share of criticism. Communities do not always have control over project selection or design, as government agencies work with a menu of pre-selected options. [7]  “The problem is, everything is about infrastructure”, noted an observer from Surigao del Norte. [8]  

[1] Crisis Group interview, Quezon City, 5 October 2023. 

[2] Crisis Group interviews, Negros and Samar, 2023.  Crisis Group interviews, governance expert, Manila, 22 February 2024; former local officials from the central Visayas, 15 March 2024.

[3] G. Ticket, “Palawan’s success story dealing with insurgency”, Palawan News , 28 December 2022.

[4] Crisis Group interview, activist, Quezon City, 21 April 2023. Former President Duterte had visited the area, making locals think their chances of eligibility were good. Some of the people whom they convinced to surrender were not actually rebels. 

[5] Crisis Group interviews, civil society observers, Cagayan de Oro, 9 July 2023; NGO staff, Manila, 5 October 2022. 

[6]  F unding per village has fluctuated, starting at 20 million pesos ($368,000), dropping to four million ($73,000), rising back to six million ($110,000) and then falling to 2.5 million ($44,000).  Nestor Corrales, “NTF-ELCAC’s budget cut to P6.3B in 2023”, Inquirer , 14 January 2023.  The initial reduction came after pressure from the program’s critics in Congress, who wanted to improve transparency. 

[7] The menu is provided by the Department of Budget Management and divided into categories of projects. From nine in 2021, the number of categories fell to five in 2023: farm-to-market roads, school buildings, water and sanitation facilities, clinics and electricity grids.

[8]   Crisis Group interview, Surigao City, 4 June 2023. 

Development projects also vary greatly in quality, in large part due to the decisive role played by local power-brokers. If mayors and other local officials, or even military commanders, are half-hearted, the results can be mediocre. [1]  Allegations of mismanagement have also plagued a number of projects. [2] “Some communities feel they receive only bread crumbs”, commented a humanitarian worker. [3]  Although oversight from both Manila and regional governments is expected, development projects are occasionally piecemeal, ad hoc and “out of sync” with community needs. Critics complain there is neither monitoring to make sure initiatives are on track nor a detailed, evidence-based study pointing to the most successful schemes. [4]

While development projects may enjoy short-term success, their long-term effects are often uncertain. Building roads may be an essential step in connecting villages to markets, but corridors from the countryside to urban centres, which are crucial to boosting rural livelihoods, are often missing from the plans. Other projects focused on the village level appear to have contributed little to improving overall socio-economic conditions in conflict-affected provinces. In twelve provinces where the rebels are active, poverty rates rose from 2018 to 2021 despite numerous projects being completed. [5]  

Despite its flaws, the development program illustrates that the military knew it needed to pursue a more holistic approach to ending the communist insurgency. [6] By incorporating local government and recognising the importance of grassroots economic conditions, the approach shows more sensitivity to the causes driving conflict than previous campaigns, which relied to a greater extent on military might. A refrain from officials Crisis Group spoke to was that, the practical problems aside, the development projects represent a new beginning. One military officer with experience in civil-military relations said: “You cannot fix everything. But you can aspire to fix things enough so that the people see and perceive that the government is trying to do its job”. [7]

Overall, the new policies appear to have contributed to the rebels’ decline, especially in central and eastern Mindanao and across Luzon and parts of the Visayas. According to various indicators, the rebels’ military strength has subsided, while projects carried out under the task force’s aegis have curbed recruitment, preventing the insurgents from rebuilding their ranks. Some government officials are so convinced that Manila has defeated the Maoists that they doubt the need to return to peace talks. [8]

But red-tagging, bureaucratic hiccups and ill-informed decision-making cast a shadow over these achievements. While many residents of conflict-affected regions no longer consider the guerrillas to be their defenders, they are struggling to regain faith in the state’s capacity, commitment and willingness to solve their problems. A military officer acknowledged the risks involved in not delivering on the government’s promises or allowing development efforts to flag: “If things do not turn out right, you are inviting disaster”. [9]

[1] In some cases, community consultations happened only afterward and involved just a few village officials. 

[2] The interventions are also less effective in areas where dynastic elites control local politics and business, as is the case in many rural areas. In some cases, young people have joined the rebels precisely out of frustration with these elites’ influence. Crisis Group interviews, former cadre, Manila, 7 October 2022; journalists and activists, Legazpi City and Irosin, 21-24 February 2023.

[3] Crisis Group interview, Quezon City, 5 October 2022. Completion rates are also a concern. In Iloilo province, less than 60 per cent of projects were completed. John Herrera, “55% of ELCAC projects in Iloilo completed; over P172-M unused funds returned to nat’l gov’t”, Daily Guardian , 15 March 2023. 

[4] Crisis Group interview, development expert, Quezon City, 10 April 2023. Crisis Group interview, Bacolod, 15 March 2023. See also Llanesca Panti, “Goals achieved? COA says performance audit on NTF-ELCAC needed”, GMA News Online, 24 August 2023. 

[5]   These provinces were Quezon, Albay, Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Sur and Misamis Oriental.  Crisis Group field visits corroborated the economic difficulties. Crisis Group interviews, residents, Bicol, Negros Occidental and Cotabato, February-June 2023. Four of these provinces continued to see increasing poverty after 2021, and conflict-affected provinces such as Samar, Northern Samar, Misamis Occidental and Zamboanga del Sur faced a similar trend.

[6] The military had been cognisant of the need for a civilian component in previous campaigns, but then it had neither the financial backing nor the institutional framework that the current campaign enjoys.

[7] Crisis Group interview, Tagum City, 4 February 2023. 

[8]   Crisis Group interviews, Manila, January-February 2024. Government officials estimate that they will fully dismantle the guerrillas by the end of 2024. 

[9] Crisis Group interview, military commander, Quezon City, 11 April 2023. Some observers think that the task force is overambitious and will not be able to deliver all the intended services, especially with a lower budget in 2024. Crisis Group interview, Manila, 28 February 2024.

III. An Insurgency on the Retreat

While the government has weakened the rebels politically and militarily over re-cent years, the movement remains afloat. Conflict continues in parts of the Philip-pines, while in December 2023 the CPP issued a statement encouraging its mem-bers to redouble the struggle despite the challenges it faces.

A. A Rebellion at Low Ebb

A complicated succession at the top appears to have debilitated the rebel cause. The nominal leader, Jose Maria Sison, died in exile in December 2022. With the previous passing of the Tiamzons, the highly influential couple who had run the group in the Philippines for decades, the CPP is facing what is perhaps the most severe leadership crisis in its history. [1] The party says it has filled vacancies on the Central Committee, but the current composition of this commanding organ is unknown. [2] The peace negotiating panel, based in Utrecht, is still operational, with Sison’s widow, Juliette de Lima, appointed as its interim chairperson. But it has no control of political and military operations in the Philippines. [3] Whether the movement has in its ranks a new generation of commanders and cadres who could replace the old guard is for now unclear. [4] Some observers speculate that, with its established heads gone, the rebels could face fragmentation. [5] That said, the number of coordinated attacks in 2023 and continuous messaging from the party’s media outlet suggest that it still has a degree of hierarchy. [6]  

[1]   With Sison in exile, the Tiamzons were in charge of CPP operations on the ground. 

[2] A former member of the movement speculated that Rafael Baylosis, a former CPP secretary-general, has become the interim leader. Most sources, however, suggest that the sickly Baylosis is unlikely to be in charge. Crisis Group interviews, Manila, 2 September 2022 and 14 July 2023. Teresa Ellera, “Baylosis to take Sison’s place as CPP chair”, Sunstar Bacolod , 11 May 2023.

[3] Sison had a crucial role as a member of the negotiating team but had more of an advisory function in the last few years, likely due to deteriorating health. Crisis Group interviews, Manila, 12 March and 23 May 2023. Moreover, Sison himself acknowledged that it is the Philippine-based “collective leading organ” that plays the most important role. See Jose Maria Sison, On the GRP-NDFP Peace Negotiations (Utrecht, 2022), p. 383.

[4] In a message from 26 December 2022 published in its mouthpiece, Ang Bayan , the CPP said that all committees should combine “senior, middle-aged and young cadres”. 

[5]   Crisis Group interviews, March-June 2023.

[6] An observer commented that the insurgents “seemed even more determined” after Sison’s death. Crisis Group interview, Quezon City, 10 April 2023. 

The rebels’ military and political wings both appear to be at a low ebb. State officials estimate that the NPA has only 1,500 full-time combatants left. [1] Whether these figures are to be trusted or not, there seems to be little doubt that the insurgency is smaller than ever. [2] Besides its diminished fighting corps, the movement has found it hard to maintain its broader support structure. The guerrillas have long depended for survival on the sympathy of a majority, or at least a substantial minority, of residents in the rural areas where they operate, while also counting on a phalanx of urban dwellers. [3] The counter-insurgency campaign and the rollout of development projects have weakened the movement, with many NPA units trying to evade arrest and political work becoming increasingly arduous. [4]

Generating funds at the local level has also become more difficult. In the countryside, rebels traditionally rely on what they call “revolutionary taxation” (ie, extortion) – of businesses and sometimes individuals – to sustain the movement, but revenue has shrunk in recent years as the insurgents have lost territory and seen the arrest of financial operatives. [5]

While the movement is still trying to recruit cadres and combatants, its survival will depend on resisting the army’s pressure while rebuilding its own political and military strength. [6] The CPP appears mindful of these challenges, saying it considers the recent loss of its leaders an “inspiration” to continue the revolution. [7] In two messages published in December 2022 and March 2023, it outlined how it intends to galvanise the movement, emphasising that it will reinvigorate political and ideological education for cadres and combatants. [8] It also said it had identified tactical flaws in its military operations that contributed to its weaknesses on the battlefield, learning from the mistakes. [9] Finally, it said it would preserve the primacy of Maoist military strategy but would work to introduce innovations, such as the formation of special tactical teams, the creation of local encampments to oversee guerrilla expansion and an emphasis on more mobile techniques of warfare. The CPP is also staying active online, putting out regular communications targeting internet-savvy, younger and minority audiences. [10]

The movement’s efforts to rejuvenate itself culminated in December 2023, when it announced what it called the Third Rectification Movement. [11] Party representatives insisted that the movement has been “gaining ground”. [12] Government officials expressed concern about the announcement’s timing, just weeks after the plan to return to peace talks had been unveiled. [13] The rebels reiterated their commitment to rectification and revolutionary struggle in another statement the following March. [14]

[1] John Mendoza, “NPA down to around 1,500 fighters – AFP”, Inquirer ,26 December 2023. Other experts and independent analysts have a spectrum of estimates, from 1,200-1,500 at the lower end to 2,000 or more at the upper end. Crisis Group interviews, April-July 2023 and 14 March 2024. 

[2] In the early 1990s, one of the rebels’ weakest periods, their forces still amounted to 6,000 fighters. See Crisis Group Report, The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines , op. cit., p. 8. 

[3] The movement has recruited minors in the past. While it officially claims to have put an end to this practice, reports of underage combatants still surface. Crisis Group interview, humanitarian law expert, 25 February 2024. See also “Report of the Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict in the Philippines”, UN, 21 July 2022. 

[4] There are indications that the government is redoubling efforts to target the movement’s urban machinery, including the so-called legal fronts. Crisis Group telephone interviews, former top cadre, 16 July 2023; journalist, 11 September 2023. 

[5] According to testimony from former rebels in Caraga region, one unit was able to generate at least $50,000 yearly from two construction companies. “2 alleged rebels in Caraga bare funds from construction firms”, GMA Integrated News, 8 March 2024. 

[6] The insurgents have traditionally been open to a wide recruitment pool, including women and members of the LGBTQI+ community. The NPA famously officiated over a gay marriage. On the other hand, there are reports that in some units traditional gender norms still apply. 

[7]   Crisis Group correspondence, Ka. Ma. Roja Banuan, NDF-Bikol spokesperson, 4 July 2023.

[8]   In its publications, the party said fighters underwent basic political education courses in Bicol, Bukidnon and Negros in the first months of 2023. The movement also wants to update its official political program (the last one dates to 2017).

[9] These include an overly cautious attitude about operations, a tendency to fall back to safe zones in the mountains and missed opportunities to strengthen the guerrillas’ support base.

[10] The NPA has accounts on X (formerly Twitter), TikTok and Discord. A former cadre said the movement is engaging in identity politics to expand its reach, for example, applauding the LGBTQI+ community for its achievements in advancing the revolution. Crisis Group interview, 15 March 2023. The movement also claims to have strengthened its support among students. “ Kabataang Makabayan reinvigorated in key Philippine universities ”, NDF, 12 December 2023. Crisis Group interviews, civil society observer, Manila, 6 February 2024; government officials, 26 February 2024. 

[11] “Message to Party Members on 55th Anniversary of the Party’s Foundation”, Central Committee, CPP, 26 December 2023. 

[12] Michael Beltran, “Why Philippines’ Maoist rebellion may not end by 2025 despite Manila’s claims”, South China Morning Post , 23 February 2024.

[13] Jonathan Malaya, “The CPP-NPA’s 3rd Rectification Movement is bad news to the peace process”, Rappler , 15 January 2024. Malaya is a member of the Philippine National Security Council.

[14] “Set to blaze the revolutionary armed struggle for national democracy! Carry out the critical and urgent tasks to rectify errors and advance the revolution!”, Central Committee, CPP, 29 March 2024. The statement mentions “active defence warfare” and “redeployment of forces” as means of reversing recent setbacks.

B. Mindanao: A Fading Stronghold

A guerrilla bastion since the late 1970s, Mindanao was the proving ground for the government’s approach of combining military pressure and development projects following the 2017 collapse of peace talks. Most of the NPA’s recruits in Mindanao come from the Lumad, local Indigenous communities often considered the part of the population most neglected by Manila, and whose concerns have shaped the insurgency’s overall identity. [1]  

Counter-insurgency operations first intensified in the Davao region, particularly around the NPA’s former strongholds in Davao de Oro and Davao del Norte, weakening the insurgency in both areas. [2] In villages in the hinterlands of Davao City, Duterte’s hometown, activists and the city government developed an initiative known as Peace 911. Launched by Duterte’s daughter Sara, who had replaced her father as mayor, the program aimed to restore the state’s legitimacy in former insurgent bastions, including the notorious Paquibato district. [3] Schemes included creating satellite government offices, consulting with residents about development projects and establishing a hotline for reporting security concerns. Together with the provision of employment opportunities for fighters who surrendered, the program helped stem the rebellion in Davao City’s outskirts. [4]

The initiative was extended to adjacent areas, with some success. Towns such as Magpet, Antipas and Arakan in Cotabato province, where rebels had been highly active in the past, have remained peaceful in recent years. People there say they appreciate the better roads and services the state has provided since 2018. [5] Sarangani, another small province where several towns have been known as hotbeds of insurgency for decades, combined national funds with its own resources to improve public services, including by hiring nurses to work in remote areas and building roads to help farmers get their produce to market. [6]

[1] Crisis Group interview, Davao de Oro, 18 February 2023. According to some estimates, Lumads constitute as many as 70 per cent of the fighters in Mindanao. Cadres or recruiters, however, often come from other regions. Crisis Group interview, Kidapawan City, 25 October 2022.

[2] Between 2016 and 2021, the government claims to have reduced the number of “active insurgents” by 75 per cent, from 900 to 210, and the number of firearms at their disposal by 78 per cent, from 1,150 to 250. “ 60IB media conference ”, video, YouTube, 7 October 2021. 

[3]   The army had mounted scores of counter-insurgency campaigns in Paquibato, year after year, without achieving notable results. Crisis Group interviews, civil society observers, 17 February 2023.

[4] Crisis Group interview, diplomat, 6 June 2022. The last encounter in the region occurred on 14 September 2022 in Davao Oriental. 

[5] Crisis Group interviews, community leaders and civil society representative, Arakan, 26 October 2022. 

[6] Crisis Group interviews, local and regional officials, Alabel, 8 February 2023. 

Finishing off the insurgency is proving more elusive in eastern and northern Mindanao. Under military pressure since 2018, guerrillas have moved westward into forested hills and are still trying to recruit among Muslim Moros and the Indigenous. [1]

Caraga region in north-eastern Mindanao, comprising the provinces of Agusan del Sur and del Norte, Surigao del Sur and del Norte, is also proving difficult to pacify. [2]   Here ,  the insurgency overlaps with disputes over exploitation of natural resources, particularly logging and mining. Indigenous peoples have a troubled relationship with the state, which they resent for its perceived neglect, feeding into the conflict. [3] Local officials say the military is making headway in winning over public opinion, and that business and tourism are growing, especially in the cities. [4] But traces of conflict are ubiquitous. [5] Army patrols in villages are common, and clashes still take place: during a June 2023 skirmish on the outskirts of one city, Butuan, the military had to resort to airstrikes to fend off the guerrillas. [6]   Grievances related to Indigenous rights, resource extraction and land ownership continue to simmer and could spur further conflict unless they are carefully handled. Caraga also borders the vast province of Bukidnon, which the rebels use to hide and move around. [7]

[1] One such area is the boundary between Lanao del Sur and Bukidnon, where the military is still conducting operations against small guerrilla units and CPP political cadres remain active. Crisis Group correspondence, 21 February 2024.

[2] According to Crisis Group data, between 2010 and 2023, every mainland Caraga municipality saw at least one clash. Crisis Group interviews, military officers, Davao, 9 June 2020.

[3] The 1996 Indigenous Peoples Rights Act was an effort to protect the country’s Indigenous communities. While the law marked a step forward, enforcement has been patchy. The conflict  has also widened divisions within Indigenous communities, with both state authorities and rebels trying to exploit these fissures to boost their cause . The military tried to spur community leaders to switch their allegiance from the insurgency to the state, often by supplying them with firearms, polarising some communities. In other cases, the state has backed Indigenous leaders who are feuding with others aligned with the rebels. Crisis Group interviews, sources from Caraga, Manila, April 2023; Davao City, 21 June 2023. 

[4]   Crisis Group interviews, former local government official, Surigao del Norte, 29 May 2020; former NPA rebel commander, 29 October 2022, Manila. 

[5] Crisis Group interviews, Butuan, 3-4 June 2023. 

[6] Froilan Gallardo, “Soldiers kill 3 in surprise attack but face strong NPA defense in Butuan”, Rappler , 17 June 2023. The communist movement has also highlighted the Agusan and Surigao del Sur provinces as focal points of the Third Rectification movement. Ang Bayan (English edition), 7 April 2024.

[7] Caraga is also the priority region for the 2024 village development program. 

C. Visayas: The Last Bastion

Over the last two years, the centre of gravity of the government’s campaign has shifted from Mindanao to the Visayas, a group of islands in the middle of the country, now considered “the last bastion” of the insurgency. [1] The government believes that “a few hundred guerrillas” remain scattered across several “weakened” fronts, particularly in the eastern (Samar and Leyte) and western Visayas (Negros). [2]  

Negros, comprising the two provinces of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental, is perhaps the most affected island. The dynamics in each province are slightly different: Negros Oriental, where towns are poorer, has only a few hotspots of violence, which, while severe, is not solely rooted in the insurgency. [3] Negros Occidental, on the other hand, has experienced a high level of conflict since 2017, recording the greatest number of clashes per province in the Philippines in the last two years. The main reason is the sugar industry, which has been the island’s economic lifeline for centuries, but also perpetuates stark economic divides. [4] The local hacienda system leads to abuses of farmers and sugar workers, which are fodder for the NPA’s media machine. [5] While sugarcane plantation owners have begun treating employees better in some respects, land grabs, poor wages and violence persist. [6] According to a local mayor, “people turn to insurgency because they are brainwashed [by the rebels]. But then there is clearly the injustice”. [7]

[1] Crisis Group interview, senior military officer, 23 April 2023. The counter-insurgency intensified after 2018, when Duterte issued Memorandum Order 32 to “suppress lawless violence and acts of terror” in Samar and Negros. Memorandum Order 32, op. cit. 

[2] Crisis Group interview, senior military officer, Cebu City, 6 June 2023. See also Gilbert Bayoran, “Troops sustain onslaught vs. CPP-NPA”, Visayan Daily Star , 13 March 2024. 

[3] Guihulngan, the hometown of rebel leader and former priest Frank Fernandez, has been a particular hotspot, with many killings over the last few years. But the drug war and political competition – with the March 2023 assassination of provincial governor Roel Degamo being a prominent example – are responsible for more casualties than the insurgency. Crisis Group interviews, journalist, Dumaguete, 20-21 March 2023; local government officials and military officers, Tanjay City, 22 March 2023. 

[4] Rebellion erupted on the island in the early 1970s, partly inspired by liberation theology, and also in reaction to martial law and intimidation of workers by landlords’ thugs. Crisis Group interview, former top cadre, 16 March 2023. 

[5] The hacienda system, dating back to the Spanish colonial era, refers to the management of vast sugar plantations with work forces hundreds strong. In parts of the Negros countryside, the insurgents administer a form of justice, often called “kangaroo courts”, which some residents nevertheless appear to prefer to the state system. While not as intense as in the past, resentment of the official justice system still fuels conflict on the island. Crisis Group correspondence, source from Negros, 8 April 2024.

[6] The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic hardships have further affected the lives of farmers and poor people.  Crisis Group interview, journalist, Manila, 31 January 2023.

[7]   Crisis Group interview, mayor in Negros Oriental, 18 March 2023. 

The rebels are nevertheless on the back foot, having suffered heavy losses for years, including among their local leaders. [1] Moving between the plains and mountain hideouts, the rebels benefit from logistical support in urban centres. But the challenges they face are mounting. Differences among cadres regarding the movement’s political and military direction have adversely affected operations. The rebels have also alienated local people with their behaviour, with some of them prizing economic returns and resembling hired goons. Much as the NPA enjoys popular backing in some places, rebel executions of “class enemies”, such as sugar planters, businesspeople and military informers, push others away, including members of the middle class. [2] Some of the more gung-ho actions are likely taken by younger, overzealous commanders who lack the older generation’s finesse in guerrilla warfare. [3]

With the military pushing hard to dismantle the remaining NPA units since early 2023, parts of Negros are trapped in conflict, with civilians intimidated by both soldiers and rebels. [4] The hillside villages around Himamaylan and Kabankalan, in particular, are beset with clashes and displacement. Some military commanders are impatient with mayors whom they perceive as insufficiently supportive of efforts to tackle the insurgents. [5] Local officials, in turn, are concerned by the intensity of the counter-insurgency campaign. [6] Rebels burnish their appeal by pointing to perceived military overreach and portraying government projects as largely useless in the face of creeping impoverishment. [7] Though the army is on the offensive, rebels occasionally hit back. [8] “The war here is far from over”, a local told Crisis Group. [9]

The military is also having trouble ending the insurgency in Samar. Scores of rebel fighters have been killed over the decades, but the government has never managed to dislodge them fully. [10] Many of the cadres released in 2016 – including the Tiamzons – made for the province, which to them was familiar territory. [11] A guerrilla-held zone on the island even hosted the CPP’s Second Party Congress in 2016. [12]  

Even in Samar, however, the government has achieved gains over recent years. The 8th Infantry Division has relied on intelligence work, pursuing the Tiamzons, for instance, as well as carefully calibrated use of force. [13] In response, in August 2022, the 200-300 Samar-based guerrillas divided up their large formations into more than a dozen smaller units to avoid detection. [14] Yet the armed forces continued to apply pressure. On 6 January, government forces killed a key rebel leader in Borongan town in Eastern Samar. [15] The last group of hardened insurgents, numbering over 100, is holed up in the hinterlands between Northern Samar and its adjacent provinces. [16] The rebels’ support networks are also weakened. [17]

As in Negros, the insurgents in Samar are struggling. But some elements of Manila’s approach may play in their favour, starting with the slow delivery on promises such as socio-economic assistance to surrendered combatants. [18] Frustration could lead disillusioned ex-fighters to return to the guerrillas’ ranks and dissuade others from demobilising. Reports even suggest that some fighters have buried their weapons in caches and are planning to go back to war once conditions are more favourable. [19]

[1] The rebels face difficulties in their command structure as a result of these losses. While exact numbers are hard to come by, it seems that somewhere between 45 and 60 fighters – and possibly fewer – are left in the region. The military’s latest estimate of the number in Negros Occidental is just over 30 fighters. Glazyl Masculino, “NPA combatants in Negros Occ. decreased significantly – Army”, Daily Guardian , 6 March 2024.

[2]   Crisis Group interview, local officials, February-March 2023. The Leonardo Pangalinan NPA command in particular has been known to put offenders to death. A recent case occurred in Toboso town on 2 January 2024, when the rebels executed Juvie Sarona, who had allegedly been behind the killing of several farmers during the 2018 Sagay massacre. A few weeks after, the NPA owned up to having killed a village  councillor’s husband, also in Toboso town. 

[3] An observer noted that some of them could be political activists who decided to join the armed struggle. Crisis Group interview, Manila, 19 June 2023.

[4]   Crisis Group interviews, March-April 2023. 

[5]   Crisis Group interview, military officers, Cauayan, 24 March 2023.

[6] Crisis Group telephone interview, journalist, 17 July 2023. 

[7] Dry weather in Negros as a result of El Niño has done massive damage to sugarcane fields and caused water shortages on the island, with a congressional deputy warning of “social unrest” as a result. “Yulo calls no cloud seeding report frustrating, warns of social unrest”, Digicast Negros, 20 March 2024. The local rebel Mount Cansermon command has encouraged people to continue the “democratic revolution”. Statement by Dionesio Magbuelas, spokesperson, NPA-South Central Negros, 17 March 2024.

[8] After a clash in February 2024, the military employed airstrikes against rebels. Reymund Titong, “Military launches airstrike after fierce clashes in Negros Occidental”, Rappler , 23 February 2024. Three hundred families evacuated due to the hostilities.

[9] Crisis Group interview, Bacolod, 24 March 2023. 

[10] In the 1980s, two thirds of Samar’s territory was under NPA influence. Crisis Group interview, former top cadre, Catbalogan City, 11 March 2023. The military went on a particularly intense offensive in 2005, but despite losing hundreds of fighters, the insurgency recovered.

[11] A former top NPA commander said Samar-based guerrillas were among the most ideological. Crisis Group interview, Tacloban, 10 March 2023. 

[12] Crisis Group interviews, Catbalogan City, 6-8 March 2023. The rebels in Samar at that time numbered around 700 fighters. A key decision at the congress was to redeploy cadres from Mindanao to Luzon and the Visayas, in an attempt to stretch government forces thin.

[13] Surrendering fighters who knew the intricacies of rebel movements on the island were a big help. Moreover, in the course of the operations in Samar, the NPA regional command head was killed. Crisis Group interview, journalist, 31 January 2023.

[14] “ AFP’s 8-month rebel chase in Samar ”, Rappler , 19 October 2022.  In April 2023, the military said it had cleared two fronts, and in June it asserted that only one front was left, which officers considered “already weakened”.  The CPP said this claim was “utterly laughable”. Crisis Group interviews, senior military commander, 23 July 2023; Marco Valbuena, CPP chief information officer, 24 July 2023.

[15] Miriam Desacada, “‘NPA leader’ slain in Eastern Samar encounter”, Philippine Star , 8 January 2024.

[16]   Connected to the Bicol and Caraga regions, Northern Samar served as a logistical hub for coordinating rebel movements. Crisis Group telephone interview, senior military commander, 23 July 2023.

[17]   Crisis Group interview, police official, Catbalogan, 9 March 2023. The rebels also failed to secure monetary support for their “permit to campaign”. Even so, some sources claim that many rebel units in Samar remain intact. Crisis Group correspondence, 27 March 2024.

[18] In Matuguinao, for example, over 150 rebels surrendered between 2019 and 2022. Crisis Group interview, local official, Catbalogan City, 8 March 2023.

[19]   Crisis Group interview, local journalist, Manila, 17 February 2024.

D. Luzon: Pockets of Resistance

Luzon, the Philippines’ largest island, is less affected than others by the conflict with the communists. As it is home to the national capital, it enjoys better economic conditions than other parts of the country. Security operations over the last fifteen years have also weakened the movement’s political and military base. Still, pockets of violence persist, for example in the Southern Tagalog region, the site of a police and military crackdown during the COVID-19 pandemic that included alleged human rights abuses. [1] In the north of Luzon, sustained military operations forced rebel formations to move back to the mountains known as the Cordillera or to adjacent areas such as Cagayan and Isabela provinces. [2] Government forces also aim to prevent a guerrilla resurgence on the eastern side of the Sierra Madre mountain range in Central Luzon. [3]

The southern portion of the island, Bicol region and the adjacent Quezon province, are traditional communist strongholds. [4] At present, even some of the movement’s supporters admit that it has “been weakened”. [5] But “lightning attacks”, rebel strikes from out of nowhere to grab firearms and score propaganda points, were still taking place in early 2023. [6] There have also been reports of extortion of business owners and, in March 2023, a clash near a school in Masbate made national headlines. [7] Aiming to boost development, the national government had allocated a chunk of counter-insurgent funds to Bicol two months earlier. [8] In the first four months of 2024, fourteen clashes in Bicol, Quezon and Batangas, even if mostly initiated by government forces, showed the insurgency’s staying power. [9]

[1] In March 2021, soldiers and police killed nine activists in an incident known as Bloody Sunday, sparking outrage across the Philippines. State investigations into the killings are in limbo. Tetch Torres-Tupas, “Murder raps vs. 17 cops in ‘Bloody Sunday’ raids dismissed”, Inquirer , 18 January 2023.

[2] The Cordilleras are generally free of conflict, unlike in the past, though human rights violations and extrajudicial killings are still reported. The Abra province saw clashes in 2023 – continuing into 2024 – after a period without any. In 2023, the air force also bombed rebel positions in Kalinga province and the towns of Baggao and Gonzaga in Cagayan province. 

[3] Hilda Austria, “Army sustains fight vs insurgency in Pangasinan”, Philippine News Agency, 12 March 2024. 

[4] Quezon in particular has been a hotbed of NPA activity. Its mountains and the Bondoc peninsula offer easy refuge, and its location makes it a stepping stone to the Visayas and Mindanao. As of early 2024, small rebel units can pass through parts of the province, but the guerrillas find it difficult to stay in villages for long. 

[5] Crisis Group, telephone interviews, NPA sympathisers, March 2023. A key rebel leader in Bicol region was also captured in late February. Crisis Group correspondence, 28 February 2024. 

[6] Crisis Group interview, church official, Legazpi City, 23 February 2023. 

[7] Janvic Mateo, “Masbate AFP-NPA clashes disrupt classes”, Philippine Star , 24 March 2023. The number of incidents in Masbate has traditionally been disproportionate to its small size. The island has been one of the most politically contested provinces in the Philippines. 

[8] Marlon Atun, “261 barangay sa Bicol tatanggap ng P6.6 milyon bawat isa mula sa NTF-Elcac”, Philippine Information Agency, 31 January 2023. 

[9]   Even in these areas, the party’s “mass base” is on the decline, but its long history there makes it hard for the government to fully control every patch of the countryside. Crisis Group interview, long-time observer, 10 April 2023.

IV. Managing the Fallout of Conflict

Recent military advances have raised the prospect of the rebels’ definitive defeat. Although the NPA has recovered from setbacks in the past, most recently in the 1990s, many observers agree that this time a revival is unlikely.  Even so, the conflict is not over.  In 2022, clashes related to the insurgency killed over 250 people; the next year, the death toll stood at over 220, with incidents occurring in 42 of the 82 Philippine provinces. [1] In 2024 to date, the conflict has killed 45 people, wounded seventeen and displaced at least 550 families. [2] At the same time, the rural conflict could have new manifestations.  The rebel movement could splinter, either on ideological grounds (not uncommon in communist insurgencies) or due to local schisms. [3] Alternatively, the rebels might turn to crime, according to those familiar with them, or seek work as violent enforcers for political figures. [4] Another scenario could entail a smaller but more lethal communist movement under new leadership. [5]

[1]   Crisis Group data.

[2] Crisis Group data. 

[3]   Regional NPA units have split from the movement in the past, for example in the Visayas in the early 1990s. 

[4] Crisis Group interviews, former cadres, independent observers and community-based workers, 2020-2023.

[5] Crisis Group interviews, former member of government negotiating panel, Manila, 15 May 2020; government official, 19 January 2024; diplomat, 2 March 2024. 

Victory for the Philippine government appears closer than in the past but not yet clearly within reach. Defeat of the rebels and lasting peace in the countryside are likely to prove elusive unless more is done to address the roots of conflict. With this reality in mind, many analysts expressed guarded optimism following the surprise announcement that talks between Manila and the rebels would resume. But support for peace negotiations and an eventual agreement aiming to address deep-seated grievances is far from unanimous, with parts of the military and Vice President Sara Duterte voicing outright opposition immediately after the announcement in late November. [1] The military has also kept up the tempo of its operations against the insurgents in the first quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, Marcos, Jr. offered amnesty to those rebels who want to surrender. [2] The National Security Council reiterated the overture, calling on rebels to “return to the fold of the law”. [3]

[1] Until the talks were announced, government officials tended to dismiss the need for negotiations, arguing instead that the best ways to counter the rebellion were to improve governance, hasten economic development and apply military pressure, giving insurgents a way out through surrenders. Crisis Group interviews, government officials, Manila, 25 June 2022; 21 April 2023; 2 February 2024. 

[2]   Jairo Bolledo, “Marcos grants amnesty to rebels”, Rappler , 24 November 2023. 

[3] Hana Bordey, “NSA Año urges ex-rebels to apply for gov’t amnesty program”, GMA News Online, 26 March 2024. Manila has also convened meetings of former communist leaders in support of the talks. Ryan Rosauro, “Ex-rebels vow to help widen support for peace talks”, Inquirer , 23 January 2024. 

A. Preparing for Talks

Pursuing dialogue with the rebels should serve the Marcos, Jr. administration’s interests, allowing it to reaffirm its readiness to put a full stop to one of Asia’s longest-running communist insurgencies. [1] It could also enable the government to achieve the strategic goal of shifting attention from internal security to external defence. [2] As Manila’s priorities move toward modernising its military, especially the navy and air force, counter-insurgency increasingly looks like a distraction. [3]  

With a first official meeting between the sides expected in the near future, a good-faith peace process that concludes in a negotiated settlement appears within striking distance. But if the conversations are to be fruitful, compromise on what to expect from them will be of paramount importance. Despite a commitment to talks, the government and rebels harbour starkly different expectations of what they might entail. The NDF is sticking to its traditional expansive set of demands. It refuses what it calls “surrender talks”. [4]  Having enhanced its bargaining power with its counter-insurgent campaign, Manila, on the other hand, is likely to push for a much more restricted agenda. [5] Even so, the possible involvement of senior military figures – an important advance from the last, failed round of negotiations – signals that the government views these talks as a major opportunity to end the conflict. [6]

[1] Crisis Group telephone interview, peace process observer, 22 July 2023. See also Crisis Group Commentary, “The Philippines: Keeping the Bangsamoro Peace Process on Track”, 30 January 2024.

[2]   Georgi Engelbrecht, “Manila’s focus on external defense needs peace in Mindanao”, The Diplomat , 8 May 2023. The goal of strengthening the Philippines’ defence capabilities is rooted in Manila’s view that it needs to be ready for maritime tensions with China amid the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing. 

[3] “AFP wants to end insurgency within 2024”, Philippine Daily Inquirer , 15 February 2024.

[4] Raymund Villanueva, “NDFP consultants welcome return of peace talks to national level”, Kodao Productions, 27 March 2024. The four traditional NDF concerns are: 1) respect for human rights and humanitarian law; 2) social and economic reforms; 3) political, electoral and constitutional reforms; and 4) an end to hostilities. 

[5] Officials in Manila espouse a range of views about how to engage in talks and which compromises are acceptable. Crisis Group interviews, state officials, January-February 2024. 

[6] Crisis Group interviews, international observers, Manila, 6 December 2023, 26 January 2024. Some military officers are still averse to peace talks, which explains why officials from the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity have been visiting various commands to discuss the talks. Crisis Group correspondence, 5 March 2024. 

To bridge their differences, the government and rebels should aim to build on the Oslo Joint Statement and Communiqué of 23 November 2023, which called for a peaceful end to the conflict. Both should also prepare a list of principles to guide the agenda for negotiations. [1] These principles could include mutual commitment to rural development and to participation by rebel cadres in formal political life. [2] In addition, community leaders across the archipelago told Crisis Group that the talks should tackle the precarious living conditions of Indigenous people trapped in the conflict. [3] The reference to “environmental issues” in the Oslo statement also gives the sides an opportunity to discuss remedies for areas affected by conflict and natural disasters, for example parts of the Visayas and Mindanao. [4]

Compromises between the sides will be difficult, but prospects may improve if the parties can take concrete steps to engender trust. As a confidence-building measure, Manila should consider releasing the oldest and sickest NDF members on humanitarian grounds, including those who might become members of the negotiating panel. [5] Another feasible step would be to guarantee freedom of movement for NDF negotiators, which successive governments have been reluctant to do. The rebels could reciprocate by agreeing to local, temporary cessations of hostilities, with clear rules as to which acts are prohibited. [6] On this basis, the sides could look to establish a mechanism for monitoring and verification of human rights and compliance with international humanitarian law to stay in effect as long as the conflict continues. [7]

The complexity of the issues and difficulties of building confidence between the sides suggest that talks should not be rushed, even if the process moves more slowly than Manila would like. The parties should convene internal consultations to build constituencies for peace. Manila has taken a step in this direction, with the counter-insurgency task force calling the Oslo “exploratory talks” a “welcome development”. [8] On the rebel side, it will be particularly important to strengthen communication among party leaders, the negotiating panel and field commanders in order to ensure a cohesive approach to talks and compliance with any agreement. [9] Views differ within the party, with some seeing peace talks as a genuine objective and others regarding them as an instrumentalist tactic. Its leaders need to bridge the gap and tell cadres and the government that they have done so. [10]

Both parties should also seek to incorporate a wide variety of voices in the negotiations. The government and NDF should have women negotiators and Indigenous representatives on their respective panels and in any working group that may be created, helping ensure that talks reflect the views of the grassroots. [11] In addition, once the talks start, government negotiators should in parallel conduct “town hall” meetings in conflict-affected areas to hear the most pressing concerns of local citizens. 

[1] For models, the two sides could look to the “Decision Points on Principles” of the Bangsamoro peace process, which paved the way for the first agreement between Manila and the Moro rebels in 2012. Past agreements between Manila and the communists, even if they largely have been set aside, could offer additional guidance in developing these principles or points. For instance, the draft agreements on social and economic reforms developed during the 2016-2017 talks might be helpful. Crisis Group correspondence, 12 April 2024. 

[2]  One prominent civil society leader said the principles should include a commitment to “local peace and development zones”. Crisis Group interview, Manila, 23 January 2024. As for political participation, the communiqué stipulates that “resolving the roots of the armed conflict and ending the armed struggle shall pave the way for the transformation of the CPP-NPA-NDFP”.

[3] Crisis Group interviews, Mindanao, Negros and Caraga regions, 2022-2023. 

[4]   Environmental protection discussions could address protected forests in former guerrilla strongholds as well as safeguards for communities regarding development projects, such as mining operations, in conflict-affected areas. 

[5]   The military is very averse to this idea. Crisis Group interview, retired senior officer, 20 December 2023. A compromise could be to put the consultants under house arrest with regular visits from members of the International Committee of the Red Cross. 

[6]   These agreements would naturally have to apply to government forces as well. 

[7] Manila and the rebels could also draw lessons from the Joint Monitoring Committee, inaugurated in 2004 to investigate humanitarian law violations, for such a body. In addition, short of a ceasefire, the two sides could set up a mechanism that would ensure joint monitoring and verification of issues of mutual concern. Ideally, the mechanism would feature not only representatives of both sides, but also members of the Philippine Human Rights Commission, independent civil society figures and – if the sides agree – even foreigners. 

[8] “Memorandum on ‘Guidance on the Signing of the Oslo Joint Communique’”, National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, 3 December 2023. Following the announcement, however, the armed forces pressed ahead with operations aimed at dismantling the remaining guerrilla fronts. 

[9]   The rebels could appoint top political or military cadres to the panel. 

[10] Communications from the CPP and NDF over recent months have repeatedly emphasised the rectification campaign and “the people’s struggle”, without prominently mentioning the exploratory talks. The NDF appears to see no contradiction between rectification and pursuing talks, wishing to negotiate from “a position of strength”. “ Panayam Kay Julie de Lima Sison (Huling Bahagi) ”, video, YouTube, 26 March 2024.

[11] Manila should also consider appointing the chair of the counter-insurgency task force as a panel member. 

B. Adjusting the Counter-insurgency

The government’s holistic counter-insurgency approach has weakened the rebels, but with peace talks on the horizon, authorities could improve it. Above all, Manila should tone down rhetoric stigmatising individuals and communities, putting an end to red-tagging that, in effect, criminalises political dissent. In addition, Manila should step up efforts to evaluate the counter-insurgent task force’s operations and make recommendations regarding its mandate and future funding. [1] Stronger civilian oversight of the task force, drawing on the expertise of representatives from national government agencies, Congress, civil society and academia, could help it become more community-oriented and transparent, while placing more women in top management positions would make it more representative. [2] Over time, and so long as the conflict abates, Manila should strengthen the agency’s civilian identity and continue its focus on spurring development in conflict-stricken areas. [3]

National and local authorities should also aim to fine-tune the inter-agency approach to make it more responsive to community needs. While a complete revamp of the pre-set list of development projects seems unlikely, ensuring that local civil society has a greater say in the initiatives that are proposed, and oversight while they are being implemented, is feasible. Manila could also do more to supervise local officials who oversee implementation. [4] More concerted efforts could also be made to address the reasons for project delays and other problems as well as to plan responses to possible funding gaps. [5] In municipalities or clusters of towns where service delivery has been lagging, officials could encourage local governments to establish “satellite offices” in remote areas that could employ health and administrative personnel. [6] Together with civil society, these municipalities should also prepare development plans that respond to the specific needs of women and ethno-linguistic minorities, for example in the Caraga region. [7]

Lastly, Manila needs to improve its treatment of rebels who have surrendered. Even though the program for surrenders is in place, funding has fallen short. The government should assess what additional resources are required to meet the needs of former rebels, strengthen program oversight and come up with a plan for housing ex-combatants, some of whom still live in military camps. 

[1] During a visit to the Philippines, UN Special Rapporteur Irene Khan urged Manila to abolish the inter-agency task force and to issue a presidential order to develop a policy against red-tagging. Officials expressed disagreement with the advice. Jairo Bolledo, “UN’s Khan urges Marcos: Abolish NTF-ELCAC”, Rappler , 2 February 2024.

[2] Crisis Group interview, independent observer, Bacolod City, 15 March 2023.

[3] Crisis Group interviews, government officials, February 2024; documents made available to Crisis Group. Jean Mangaluz, “NTF-Elcac to transition into unity and peace task force – official”, Inquirer , 2 February 2024. 

[4] In this regard, authorities can call on the assistance of the Department of Interior and Local Government, which plays a key role in the inter-agency task force. 

[5]   In early April, Marcos, Jr. instructed his cabinet to increase village development funds. Raymund Antonio, “PBBM orders increase of funds for this year’s barangay dev’t program”, Manila Bulletin , 4 April 2024. 

[6] These initiatives should focus on municipalities in Negros Occidental, Samar and Bukidnon.

[7]   Crisis Group interview, Magpet, 28 October 2022. 

C. Strengthening the Rule of Law

Protecting communities that bear the brunt of the conflict and strengthening the rule of law in conflict-affected areas remain crucial to lasting peace. Grievances regarding security force operations and the actions of local officials continue to fuel resentment of the state that rebels regularly exploit.

The military can help mitigate these resentments through stronger safeguards relating to the use of force, particularly with respect to protecting civilians. It should stop using a heavy hand with communities it suspects of being sympathetic to the insurgency, reducing coercive interactions with civilians. [1] The armed forces should also more closely monitor the operations of paramilitaries such as the Citizen Armed Force Geographical Units and punish any transgressions. [2]  Finally, they should allow safe, unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance to conflict-affected villages, regardless of whether these are near rebel-influenced areas. Where the military is hesitant to do so out of concern the relief could benefit the insurgents, it should coordinate with civil society groups and local governments to create humanitarian corridors so that aid reaches the intended recipients. [3] Similarly, the armed forces should ensure that farmers in conflict-affected areas can harvest their crops without harassment. [4]

[1]   Each military unit’s human rights officer could also be tasked with monitoring possible overreach through red-tagging.

[2] In Negros, in particular, paramilitaries were identified as responsible for humanitarian law violations. Crisis Group interviews, civil society representatives, March 2023.

[3] In the past, rural dwellers, local officials and civil society leaders proposed setting up “peace zones” – areas where the sides would cease fire for the sake of community well-being. But over the years, these initiatives have eroded from the Cordilleras to Negros. 

[4] Crisis Group interviews, 5 October 2022. 

To win local legitimacy, the Philippine state also needs to strengthen the rule of law and curb injustices that generate disaffection in areas where the insurgency is strongest. Training more police and deploying more women officers to provide safety and order is particularly important if the state wishes to consolidate its authority in parts of the countryside where rebels are in retreat or have already retreated, for example in Davao. [1] The police should also strengthen its mechanisms to punish abuses by officers. At the same time, authorities should look to give more resources to local courts, filling vacant judicial positions and improving case management so that conflict-affected communities can get better access to the justice system. 

For legal and humanitarian reasons – and to create a climate of good-will ahead of negotiations – the rebels should also protect non-combatants, including by avoiding setting up encampments near sites such as schools and steering clear of targeting civilians. [2] They should also honour their pledge not to recruit minors. [3]

[1] While the police may not yet be capable of taking over provision of public safety from the military in rural areas affected by conflict, the Marcos, Jr. administration appears to be considering transferring this responsibility to law enforcement in the long term. As of now, the police are playing a support role to the military’s counter-insurgency campaign. 

[2] Officially, the movement claims to adhere to humanitarian law. In the past, it has released captured soldiers and sometimes issued apologies when it has harmed civilians. It claims to have developed internal mechanisms for dealing with transgressions, for example compensating aggrieved parties and cooperating with the peace panel – the NDF – in cases of alleged violations after the NDF signed an agreement with the Philippine government in the 1990s committing to respect human rights and humanitarian law (see earlier footnote). Crisis Group correspondence, Marco Valbuena, CPP chief information officer, 24 July 2023. The government has filed several complaints against the NPA with the Commission of Human Rights. See also Priam Nepomuceno, “NPA rights violations piling up: AFP”, Philippine News Agency, 6 November 2022.

[3] In 1992, the NPA amended its rules to stipulate that eighteen is the minimum age for recruitment. Crisis Group correspondence, Marco Valbuena, CPP chief information officer, 24 July 2023.

D. Boosting Livelihoods in Conflict Zones

Land ownership is a root cause of the insurgency, and the notion of “agrarian revolution” remains a staple of CPP ideology. [1] In conflict-affected regions such as Bicol, Negros and Samar, agriculture is the economic lifeline for hundreds of thousands of Filipinos, yet farmers live in poverty and bear the brunt of the war. About 22.4 per cent of the population, or more than one fifth of the country, lives in or near poverty, but some provinces where insurgents operate face a rate one and a half times as high. [2] Considering that farming communities provide a steady stream of recruits for the rebels, improving livelihoods in the countryside should be at the heart of efforts to build peace. [3]  

First, the Philippine government should use the village development program to increase the number of agricultural projects it funds in conflict-affected areas rather than focusing almost exclusively on infrastructure development. These initiatives should go beyond mere distribution of livestock and fertilisers. [4] Projects geared toward providing better equipment such as storage facilities or machinery could boost the income and productivity of farmers, as could better access to training. [5] Local governments, with support from the national government’s Departments of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, should support these initiatives with know-how and capital, while calling on agrarian experts from civil society and academia for advice, for example on how best to diversify crops. [6]

Secondly, national authorities should press ahead with land reform, particularly if agreement on this issue is reached in peace talks with the rebels. [7] Even though distributing land more fairly has been official policy in the Philippines since 1988, the results have often not met expectations. [8] The government should take steps that would galvanise reform but do not require, in the words of a former official, “reinventing the wheel”. [9] Officials should seek to identify public land in or near conflict-affected areas and develop plans to redistribute these plots to landless farmers, as well as bolster schemes to enhance land productivity. [10] They should also assess the challenges facing previous reform efforts in Negros, Samar and Northern Mindanao so as to avoid repeating past mistakes in conflict-affected areas. [11] Lastly, they should establish specific programs of support for women farmers, for example by improving credit services, enhancing technical training and strengthening women’s roles in land governance. 

[1] Crisis Group interview, NDF panellist, Utrecht, 14 December 2022. Regions where the insurgency continues, for example Negros, Bicol and Bukidnon, have economies oriented toward farming.  

[2] Iya Gozum, “Philippines’ poverty incidence down in first half of 2023”, Rappler , 22 December 2023.  

[3] In October 2022, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority, agriculture employed 22.5 per cent of the country’s workers, some 10.6 million people. Cristina Eloisa Baclig, “PH farms getting empty: Agriculture job loss a worrying trend”, Inquirer , 8 December 2022. Women comprise more than a quarter of workers in Philippine agriculture, but official data fails to take account of informal work carried out by rural women. Other challenges for women include lower wages, socio-cultural norms complicating applications for land titles and agricultural policies that often lack a gender lens. See also “Crafting Policies and Programs for Women in the Agriculture Sector”, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, July 2018. 

[4]   Crisis Group interviews, Visayas residents, March-May 2023.

[5] Crisis Group interviews, NGO workers, Catbalogan, 11 March 2023; Dumaguete, 19 March 2023. Cooperatives and associations of former NPA combatants could play a crucial role in training for farmers.

[6] Such measures would go a long way toward demonstrating Marcos, Jr.’s avowed commitment to improving agricultural output countrywide. Anna Bajo, “Marcos renews commitment to enhance agricultural productivity”, GMA News Online, 25 October 2023.

[7] Iya Gozum, “After 35 years of CARP, are Filipino farmers free?”, Rappler , 12 June 2023.

[8] Crisis Group interviews, Negros and Manila, April-May 2023. The reform, which was rolled out from 1988 to 2014, envisioned a ceiling on land holdings and redistribution of public and private lands to small farmers. In some regions, big landholdings were split up, but in others oligarchic land ownership is still the norm. See Tasso Adamopoulos and Diego Restuccia, “Land Reform and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Micro Data”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics , vol. 12, no. 3 (2020). 

[9]   Crisis Group interview, Quezon City, 23 May 2023. Pursuing complete land reform would in all likelihood draw fierce opposition from the landed oligarchy.

[10] A positive step was Marcos, Jr.’s enactment of a law eliminating the debt of more than 500,000 farmers. “New law writes off P57-B farmers’ debt”, Manila Times , 8 July 2023. Productivity could be improved by diversifying crops, using technology more effectively and resolving pending land cases at the agriculture department.

[11]   Crisis Group interview, civil society representative, Manila, 19 February 2024. 

E. Supporting Local Peacebuilding

Even if levels of violence fall, there is and will continue to be a need for peacebuilding aimed at bridging differences in conflict-affected areas and promoting more inclusive local authorities. Beyond government agencies, civil society organisations are among the best placed to do this job, as they have earned credibility from years working on humanitarian, environmental and rehabilitation issues. [1]  

Supporting these groups could be a way for donors to contribute to peace and stability. [2] While red-tagging still occurs, the political conditions for this sort of work have slightly improved since the Duterte presidency ended. [3] Some donors and international organisations are interested in helping with peacebuilding in principle but concerned about running afoul of the government. [4] An indirect approach could offer a way forward: funding small pilot projects that focus on climate change adaptation and disaster relief – issues of concern to Manila – while not losing sight of peacebuilding goals. [5] This course of action would be cost-effective and broadly in line with the Marcos, Jr. government’s thinking. [6]

[1] Crisis Group interview, source close to the 2016-2017 peace talks, Manila, 14 February 2023; source from the Bicol region, Manila, 10 April 2023; community leader, Surigao del Sur, 16 December 2023. 

[2]   The vast majority of donor support, according to some estimates around 75 per cent, goes to the Bangsamoro peace process and broader development programming in the country. 

[3] Most observers agree that such rhetoric has cooled under Marcos, Jr., but whether red-tagging is on the wane remains debateable.

[4] Crisis Group interviews, 22 February 2023, 22 January 2024.

[5] Crisis Group interviews, civil society worker, Silay, 4 September 2023; humanitarian and development NGO head, Manila, 27 February 2024. 

[6] Donors need not divert their attention from the Bangsamoro peace process to address climate change adaptation, which is a priority for the Marcos, Jr. administration, ensuring its buy-in to potential projects. 

V. Conclusion

The Maoist insurgency in the Philippines is at its lowest ebb in decades. But it has not been vanquished, and the armed conflict remains both a challenge for the state and a threat to public safety in pockets across the country. The government’s military successes in the last few years have lent it confidence in its capacity to end the rebellion once and for all. But Manila may be underestimating the rebels’ resilience; moreover, the political, social and economic grievances that have driven the rebel cause over decades could stoke last-ditch resistance among parts of the guerrilla force or new manifestations of violence. 

Manila’s attempts to transform the conditions that have fuelled the communist rebellion are at the heart of its quest to close this painful chapter in the country’s history. But while it is on the right track, refinements in its development policies are required to win over certain communities, and its sometimes heavy-handed approach continues to sow unnecessary distress. With peace talks slated to resume soon, the government should seize the opportunity to work patiently toward a definitive end to the conflict, beginning with modest confidence-building steps. So long as the trajectory and outcome of talks are uncertain, Manila should also strive to balance its counter-insurgent efforts with a peacebuilding approach that stresses adherence to the rule of law and inclusive development.

The Philippine state has done much to blunt the guerrilla movement and deplete its ranks. Now is the time to reach further in its bid to tackle the political, social and economic causes that fuel the insurgency, so that this decades-old conflict can finally draw to a conclusion.

Manila/Brussels, 19 April 2024 

Appendix A: Map of the Communist Armed Conflict in the Philippines

The history of the communist insurgency in the Philippines can be divided into different periods. These are: 1) the movement’s origins (1968-1972); 2) its expansion and growth during the Marcos dictatorship (1972-1986); 3) a time of retrenchment (1986-1996); 4) on-and-off resurgence (1996-2016); and 5) an escalation of conflict followed by decline (2016 to the present). This appendix covers the first four. 

Origins and Early Stages (1968-1972)

Antecedents of social revolt appeared in the Philippines in the colonial era, as well as in the 1940s and 1950s. The most prominent was the Huk uprising. The Hukbong Bayan Laban sa Hapon (or Hukbalahap or the Huks) was an anti-Japanese guerrilla movement during World War II. In 1946, the Huks began fighting the Philippine government, to resist political repression and landlordism but also to advance an ideological agenda. [1] The Huks had close ties with the Partido Komunista ng Pilipinas, the Philippine Communist Party, but also operated on their own. [2] By 1954, the administration of President Ramon Magsaysay had defeated the movement through combined military, police and civic action. [3] The governments that followed, however, were unable to carry out reforms that might have prevented its resurgence. More than a decade later, in 1968, the CPP emerged during a period of social upheaval and prolonged economic stagnation. It drew its members from both the left-wing intelligentsia, including students, and veterans of the old party who were dissatisfied with their leaders. 

In 1969, the party formed an armed wing, the NPA. [4] The nucleus of the new guerrillas teamed up with Huk remnants under Bernabe “Kumander Dante” Buscayno in central Luzon and began expanding. [5] CPP founder Jose Maria Sison envisaged the province of Isabela and the adjacent mountain ranges in northern Luzon, where the CPP Central Committee moved in 1970, as a launchpad for offensives. [6]

Martial Law and the Marcos Years (1972-1986)

President Ferdinand Marcos, Sr.’s imposition of martial law on 23 September 1972, on the grounds of perceived unrest in Manila and outside, enabled the movement to expand and challenge state power. [7] In the early 1970s, the NPA had around 1,000 to 2,000 fighters, but by the end of Marcos’s rule that number had grown to an estimated 20,000 or more, as the military focused on dealing with Mindanao’s Moro secessionist groups. [8] The communist rebels also benefitted from the repression of the Marcos years. Massacres, corruption and everyday violence drove more people to fight the dictator and his cronies. The rebels also took advantage of the Philippine archipelago’s geographical spread. [9] Their major theatres were Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao. [10]  

Mindanao in particular proved to be a perfect environment for unrest. The islanders harboured a variety of grievances, such as landlessness, resource exploitation, inequality and violence against Indigenous minorities, that found echoes in the insurgency’s proclaimed agenda. [11] In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the regions of Davao and Zamboanga, followed by Agusan, Surigao and Misamis, all became staging grounds for guerrilla offensives.

The rebels reached their political-military peak in the mid-1980s, when they not only controlled territory and operated hit squads in cities across the country, but also attacked military bases. [12] Guerrilla units merged into bigger formations, often engaging the armed forces in conventional battles. [13] Starting in the early 1980s, cities experienced strikes and uprisings, with political coalitions engaging in mass mobilisation. [14] Many cadres experimented with new political and military strategies. [15] By the time a popular uprising forced Marcos out of office, the rebels were active in almost every Philippine province. 

The Corazon Aquino Years (1986-1992)

The movement then fell into decline, due to four factors. First, it decided to boycott the 1986 polls. Marcos had called these snap elections before the uprising, but the rebel leadership was convinced the polls would not be fair even with him gone. [16] It proved to be a major mistake, since the CPP was the dominant anti-Marcos political force. [17] Secondly, purges harmed the structure of party and its armed wing, alienating many cadres. [18] The number of fighters in Mindanao, for example, fell by some 50 per cent. [19] Thirdly, military operations intensified as the armed forces tried to exploit the movement’s weaknesses after a temporary ceasefire in 1986 fell apart. [20]

But perhaps most important was a fourth factor: a split in the movement over policy disagreements. Debates on strategy and the 1986 election boycott decision culminated in Sison’s publication of a strategic document to “reaffirm” ideological orthodoxy, denounce ideological adventurism and push for “rectification” – namely, a return to classical Maoist doctrine of protracted people’s war. [21] The document triggered strong reactions from party members and grassroots supporters, ranging from disbelief to firm opposition, and reflecting frustration with Sison’s dogmatism. [22] A substantial part of the movement split off. [23] Estimates suggest that it lost 40 per cent of its combatants, 40 per cent of its territory, 15 per cent of party members and 60 per cent of its popular support. [24] The emergence of various communist splinter groups, most of which abandoned the armed struggle, fractured the Philippine left. [25]

The Fidel Ramos and Joseph Estrada Presidencies (1992-2001) 

The armed conflict continued in the 1990s, but with varying intensity. The Ramos presidency pressed ahead with Aquino’s military campaign, taking advantage of the CPP’s disarray. Many cadres and activists, past and present, regard this period as the rebels’ low point. [26] Beyond the party’s erosion, many in the growing Philippine middle class had lost faith in the need for violent revolution to bring about social change. [27]

The Ramos administration also achieved the most progress in terms of peace talks, leading to four agreements but falling short of a comprehensive settlement. [28] Late in the decade, however, the rebels managed to reorganise some of their forces, at a time when the military once again had its hands full with the Moro rebellion. [29] Moreover, under the leadership of the Tiamzons and other figures, veteran cadres rebuilt networks to capitalise on weak state service delivery in rural areas, as well as continuous military abuses against civilians. The rebels grew in number once more, with up to 9,500 fighters in 1999. [30] The next administration under Joseph Estrada (1998-2001) did not engage in serious talks and clashes continued.

The Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Years (2001-2010)

The conflict once again intensified during the presidency of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. [31] At first, her administration was predisposed to negotiations. [32] But it quickly grew alarmed at the strong electoral performance of Bayan Muna, a political party close to the militant left, and rebellion in the countryside resurged. During this time, the military considered the communist rebels the biggest threat in the country, over and above the Moro armed groups. [33] In 2004, the NDF withdrew from the negotiating table after Macapagal-Arroyo designated the NPA as a terrorist group. The subsequent military campaign, called Oplan Bantay Laya, was once again heavy-handed. [34] In Davao’s district of Paquibato, for example, the armed forces allegedly committed several abuses. [35] A military campaign in Central Luzon targeted not only rebels but also activists and the movement’s political backbone. This crackdown once again drove hundreds of people to the armed movement, even if military operations weakened some party committees and rebel fronts. 

The Benigno Aquino Years (2010-2016)

Peace talks under Arroyo’s successor Benigno Aquino again proved unsuccessful. The administration launched a new military campaign, the Oplan Bayanihan, and designed the PAMANA program, a countrywide effort to roll out development projects in communist-influenced villages. [36] But the rebellion continued. The early Aquino years, in fact, saw a notable increase in NPA activity in Caraga and Davao regions in Mindanao. [37] In these resource-rich areas, the movement’s membership grew by up to 20 per cent. Clashes occurred almost everywhere in the country. [38] While some in Aquino’s negotiating team demonstrated flexibility, they were not able to agree on substantive issues with the communist movement. The rebels were also cautious about making concessions. In the end, despite Aquino’s landmark peace agreement with the Moro rebels in 2012 and 2014, neither Manila nor the communists had the political will to achieve a breakthrough.

[1] Hukbong Bayan Laban sa Hapon means “people’s army against Japan”. See Benedict Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion: A Study of Peasant Revolt in the Philippines (Quezon City, 1979). Landlordism refers to an economic system in which a few individuals rent or lease land to tenants. In the Philippines, the landlords tended to be politically dominant as well. 

[2] The party was established in 1930 by labour and trade union leaders.

[3] Magsaysay worked closely with Edward Lansdale, a U.S. intelligence officer, who later attempted to replicate the Philippine counter-insurgency model in Vietnam. 

[4] One year later, the national democratic movement was galvanised by the “first-quarter storm”, a series of student protests and street confrontations in Manila following the election of Ferdinand Marcos, Sr. Top communist cadres took part, setting the stage for further mobilisation of students and youth. Crisis Group telephone interview, former top cadre, 27 March 2024.

[5] For a granular narrative of the CPP’s expansion in the Bicol region, see Soliman Santos, Jr., TIGAON 1969: Untold Stories of the CPP-NPA, KM and SDK  (Manila, 2023). 

[6] According to Jones’ seminal work on the communist movement, Sison was inspired by Mao Zedong and the Yenan base in China’s Shensi province during 1935-1936. Jones, Red Revolution , op. cit., pp. 40, 96 and 101. 

[7]   For a critical look on the communist movement during the martial law era, see Joseph Scalice, The Drama of Dictatorship: Martial Law and the Communist Parties of the Philippines (New York, 2023).

[8] Moro rebels – the Moro National Liberation Front and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front – have engaged in tactical cooperation with communist insurgents since the 1970s. 

[9] Rebel doctrine followed Sison’s 1974 text, “Specific Characteristics of Our People’s War”, which set out the principles of “centralised leadership and decentralised operations”. Prior writings established the nucleus of this approach. 

[10] In Luzon, the rebel movement drew on grievances among Indigenous people in the Cordillera region who resisted government-imposed development projects. See Crisis Group Asia Report N°248, The Philippines: Dismantling Rebel Groups , 19 June 2013, pp. 9-10. 

[11] In the 1980s, Davao City, for example, saw killings in shootouts and bombings on a scale some compared to the civil wars happening at the time in Central America. 

[12] Battle deaths were highest in 1985. Crisis Group Report, The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines: Tactics and Talks , p. 4. 

[13] Some look at this rebel move as a blunder that took cadres away from organising in the countryside. See Kathleen Weekley, The Communist Party of the Philippines, 1968-1993: A Story of its Theory and Practice (Quezon City, 2001), p. 230.

[14] In the 1970s, the group also started to build solidarity networks with international guerrilla, leftist and social movements. Some of these links endure today.

[15] The debates occurred also at the top echelons of the party. Some cadres wanted to move away from a Maoist line toward a more hybrid approach known as “insurrectionist strategy”. Advocates of this approach, and another known as the political-military framework or the Vietnamese model, favoured a mix of armed, political and legal struggle as well as urban work in addition to the Maoist people’s war. See, for example, Marty Villalobos, “For a Politico-Military Framework”, unpublished paper, 23 February 1987.

[16] The non-militant and more liberal opposition to the Marcos dictatorship was also gaining ground in the early 1980s. Crisis Group telephone interview, former member of the communist movement, 27 March 2024. 

[17] This decision was made by the leadership in the party’s Executive Committee and in particular Rodolfo “Rudy” Salas, who led the party from 1977. The party later demoted Salas.

[18] See Robert Francis Garcia, To Suffer Thy Comrades: How the Revolution Devoured Its Own (Manila, 2001). Among the main purge operations were “Ahos”, in Mindanao; “Missing Link”, in Southern Luzon; “Cadena de Amor” also in Luzon; and “VD” in Leyte.

[19] In a moment of self-awareness, the late Ka Oris, a prominent Mindanao-based NPA leader, said: “In regions with forces numbering 1,000, only 200 were left. It was not because the enemy was good; it was because we were bad. Something was wrong with us”. Carolyn Arguillas, “Q and A with Jorge Madlos”, Mindanews, 8 January 2011.

[20] The 60-day ceasefire was declared during the term of President Corazon Aquino, but collapsed almost immediately. Most of the blame goes to the government, which relaunched military operations in violation of the ceasefire. But the rebels were also half-hearted in respecting the ceasefire. As a result, the war in the countryside continued with ferocity.

[21] Armando Liwanag (Sison’s pen name), “Reaffirm Our Basic Principles and Rectify Errors”. Sison’s campaign became known as the Second Great Rectification Movement. 

[22] Those who endorsed Sison’s point of view were known as Reaffirmists, while the splinter members became the Rejectionists. Both labels are in use today in internal debates and among outside observers.

[23] Those who left included the Manila-Rizal committee, chunks of the Mindanao and Negros party and military structures, Central Luzon and parts of sectors in the united front (a coalition of revolutionary and legal forces).

[24] Dominique Caouette, “Persevering Revolutionaries: Armed Struggle in the 21st Century, Exploring the Revolution of the Communist Party of the Philippines”, Ph.D. thesis, Cornell University, 2004, p. 14. 

[25] Some of these groups merged while others splintered further. For instance, the Cordilleras Peoples Liberation Army separated after 1986 and concluded a peace deal with the government. The Cordilleras are, apart from the Bangsamoro, the only autonomous region in the Philippines.

[26] Crisis Group interviews, Manila, June-July 2023. 

[27] Crisis Group interviews, former cadres and activists, Cebu and Davao, March-April 2023.

[28] From 1992 to 1995, the sides signed four agreements during exploratory talks, including the Joint Agreement on Safety and Immunity Guarantees and the Agreement on the Ground Rules of the Formal Meetings. Ramos also repealed the Anti-Subversion Law that outlawed membership in the CCP. 

[29] In particular, the emergence of the Abu Sayyaf Group and renewed hostilities with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. Ramos handed over part of the responsibility for peace and order to the police in 21 provinces, but they were ill equipped to take on the task. Thomas Marks, Maoist Insurgency Since Vietnam (Essex, 1996), p. 83.

[30]   A striking example of the insurgency’s capacity to rise from the ashes was in Negros, where in 1992-1993 the NPA allegedly had only one platoon and one gun left. After the military withdrew and the police took over many of its responsibilities, Frank Fernandez, a priest-turned-rebel, convinced many fighters who had either surrendered or were lying low to recommit to the struggle. After an intense period of mass mobilisation, the guerrillas were soon able to tax companies and attack detachments. Crisis Group interview, local source, 19 June 2023. 

[31] At the Arroyo administration’s request, Norway took over as official facilitator of the talks in 2001. 

[32] The political and legal organisations of the communist party supported Arroyo during an uprising that led Estrada to resign. In the 2001 elections, Bayan Muna topped the party-list vote. Some members of the party were contemplating the possibility of democratic politics beyond an exclusive focus on Maoist struggle. Crisis Group interview, political observer, 15 March 2023.

[33] A high-ranking military officer said in 2003: “They are our utmost security concern at present … and we consider them a much bigger threat than the Abu Sayyaf, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or the Jemaah Islamiyah”. See Carlos Conde, “Once nearly extinct, communist rebels find new converts: In Philippines, a threat revives”, The New York Times , 29 December 2003.

[34] The NPA started weakening in Luzon during Arroyo’s presidency. In 2005 and 2006, the military started to target activists and farmers involved in peasant groups. Extrajudicial killings skyrocketed.

[35] Rodrigo Duterte, mayor of Davao City at that time, said after one incident: “You are acting like an occupation army here. … If this is what’s happening, I cannot blame the people for joining the NPA”. “Duterte declares hands-off policy in army’s anti-NPA campaign in Paquibato”, Mindanews, 13 March 2009. During his tenure as mayor, Duterte pursued a balancing act between the military and the communist rebels. He even attended the wake of Leoncio Pitao, alias Commander Parago, from Davao City.  Duterte’s main goal seems to have been to avoid spillover into the city, letting occasional skirmishes occur in districts near the adjacent provinces.

[36] Insurgents declared PAMANA a counterrevolutionary initiative and, in many instances, tried to resist the program. For details, see also Balázs Áron Kovács, Peace Infrastructures and State-Building at the Margins  (New York, 2018), pp. 189-219.

[37] Document on file with Crisis Group. See also Amanda Fernandez, “NPA guerrillas mainly concentrated in north-eastern, southern Mindanao – AFP”, GMA News Online, 29 March 2014.

[38] Crisis Group telephone interview, former Mindanao-based cadre, 9 March 2023.

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