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Ukraine invasion — explained

The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in "the world order." Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all.

The leaders of China and Russia have finished talks. Here are some takeaways

Charles Maynes

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands after speaking to the media during a signing ceremony following their talks in Moscow on Tuesday. Mikhail Tereshchenko/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP hide caption

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands after speaking to the media during a signing ceremony following their talks in Moscow on Tuesday.

TAIPEI and MOSCOW — China's top leader Xi Jinping has wrapped up a state visit to Moscow, where he held nearly three full days of talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin. The two men have a close relationship and have met 40 times now in the last decade.

This visit was an especially strong sign of support from China for Russia, coming just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for alleged war crimes. Xi gave no indication he brought up the arrest warrant. Instead, the two men greeted each other warmly as "dear friend."

One big topic on the table: Putin's war in Ukraine. Here's what you need to know about the visit.

For Putin, the visit was a diplomatic boon in time of need

Putin has long been shunned by Western leaders over the invasion. And yet in meetings with Xi before cameras, the Chinese leader praised Putin's "strong leadership" — even encouraging Russians to reelect him in 2024. It was an awkward moment: Putin has remained coy about his future political plans.

China's Xi Jinping flexes his diplomatic muscle with a visit to Moscow

"China's support has been critical for Russia in managing U.S., NATO and European Union reprisals and sanctions imposed in response to Russia's war in Ukraine," s ays Sharyl Cross, director of the Kozmetsky Center at St. Edward's University in Texas and a scholar of Sino-Russian relations.

"Consolidating and developing China-Russia relations is a strategic choice made by China based on its own fundamental interests," Chinese state media reported Xi as telling Putin on Monday.

Xi obliquely brushed off Western criticism of his growing ties with Putin: "It is China's strategic choice and will not change due to a temporary incident."

Russia has amassed a shadow fleet to ship its oil around sanctions

China and Russia's ties have benefited both countries economically, and bilateral trade surged in the last year. China now accounts for nearly a third of all Russian exports, and Russia recently became China's top oil supplier. Xi called for expanding cooperation in sectors like energy and supply chains after his meeting with Putin.

With his country facing withering Western sanctions, the Russian leader has had little choice but to accept the Chinese offers, analysts say.

"China's domination of Russia is complete," Sam Greene, a Russia specialist at the Center for European Policy Analysis, argues in a Twitter thread .

Greene describes the outcome of the talks as "remarkable" because the deals were so "one-sided" — with Russia offering raw exports but seeing little Chinese investment to Russia in return.

"Putin tells his people he's fighting for Russia's sovereignty. In truth, he's mortgaged the Kremlin to Beijing," writes Greene .

A joint economic cooperation statement published after the visit stressed the two countries would seek to increase their use of "local currency," such as the Chinese yuan rather than the U.S. dollar, to settle cross-border trade, including for oil and gas.

The two countries are also increasingly ideologically aligned in their opposition to the U.S.-led world order.

"Xi Jinping seeks to assume a leading diplomatic role on the world stage and has been increasingly willing to join Moscow in challenging Western values and perspectives on international concerns," Cross says.

There was widespread skepticism of China's intentions

Xi arrived in Moscow touting his visit as a "peace mission" centered around a 12-point position paper aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine.

China calls for a cease-fire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine

Speaking to Xi in front of cameras at the start of discussions Monday, Putin said he had "carefully studied" the Chinese proposals, was "open to peace talks," and welcomed China's "constructive role."

Yet two days of talks yielded little more than lip service to the notion of a deal.

Putin said the Chinese plan dovetailed with Russian views and could form the "basis" of an eventual peace agreement — "when the West and Ukraine are ready."

Yet few countries in Eurasia and Europe have taken China and Russia's offer seriously. Left unspoken: Putin continues to insist that Kyiv recognize the "new geopolitical realities" of Ukrainian lands illegally annexed by Moscow, despite Russian forces not fully controlling the territories militarily.

Ukraine refuses this and insists Russian forces pull out: "The first and major point is the capitulation or withdrawal of the Russian occupation troops from territory in accordance with the norms of international law and the UN Charter," Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, wrote on Twitter this week.

China's position paper does not include provisions for returning Ukrainian territory seized by Russia.

The closer ties between China and Russia have also alarmed former Soviet states in Central Asia.

"I think Central Asian countries see that this plan is unrealistic, and it cannot be anyhow implemented," says Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Kyrgyzstan.

And for all the fanfare around his peace efforts, Xi kept up a political balancing act in which he neither condemned Russian actions nor provided Putin military support.

Japan's prime minister arrives in Ukraine for talks with President Zelenskyy

Meanwhile, China's regional neighbor, Japan, has thrown its support behind Ukraine. While Xi was in Moscow, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise trip to Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy.

Xi's visit was an attempt for China and Russia to contain diplomatic fallout over Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The two countries have tried to portray their talks as routine international diplomacy and collectively hit back at Western criticism of their political systems, saying they "oppose the hypocritical narrative of the so-called 'democracy against authoritarianism.' "

"I think there's a bit of damage control going on now," says Thomas Christensen, an international affairs professor and director of the China and the World Program at Columbia University.

'Golden billion,' Putin's favorite conspiracy, explains his worldview and strategy

"After Beijing offered its so-called peace proposal, it made sense for him to go and discuss it with Putin, because he can try to project, particularly to the developing world and to some European capitals, that China is a constructive force, that China is not simply fully siding with Russia but is trying to create peace."

China's support has also provided Russia protection from Western pressure — with Xi fully embracing Putin's framing of the Ukraine conflict as part of a larger effort by the West to contain rival powers and prevent what Putin calls a historical shift toward a "multipolar" world.

A telling moment came as Xi bid farewell to Putin following a state dinner at the Kremlin Tuesday.

"Right now there are changes the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years," Xi told Putin. "And we are the ones driving these changes together."

• Vladimir Putin
• Russia-Ukraine war

‘Old friend’ Putin and China’s Xi strengthen strategic ties at summit

Leaders present relationship as stabilising force as Putin expresses gratitude to crucial ally in Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have signed a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between their two nations at a summit that framed their relationship as a stabilising force in a chaotic world.

Speaking at a joint press conference on Thursday, Xi said: “China is willing to … jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries, and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world.”

Reporting from Beijing, Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu said Xi “made the point that Russia-China cooperation did not target any third party, that it was a mutually respectful, beneficial partnership and that he hoped that the war in Ukraine … would be solved peacefully”.

The Chinese president described the relationship as “a stabilising force in the world in the face of rising hegemony, no doubt referring to the United States”, she added.

Putin expressed gratitude to Xi for efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine.

He criticised the United Nations and the G20, saying that they needed to be “depoliticised” and that Russia and China “would work together to improve security in the Asia-Pacific”, said Yu.

Putin condemned what he described as “closed alliances in the region”, she added, “no doubt referring to the AUKUS pact [between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States], which Beijing considers as an alliance designed to contain China”.

Trade was an important aspect of the meeting, with Xi highlighting that bilateral trade had increased by 170 percent over the past 10 years with the potential to expand.

Describing their initial session as “warm and comradely”, Putin outlined sectors where the two countries were strengthening ties, from nuclear and energy co-operation to food supplies and Chinese car manufacturing in Russia.

‘Old friend’

The visit comes days after Russia launched a new offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region and as it claimed advances on the 1,000km (600-mile) long front line, where Ukrainian forces have been hampered by delayed deliveries of weapons and ammunition from the United States.

Xi had given his “old friend” a warm welcome, holding a reception outside Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. The two countries’ anthems were played to the accompaniment of a gun salute before the two men went on to review the troops gathered on the plaza. A group of children jumped up and down enthusiastically as Putin and Xi walked past during a ceremony that lasted nearly half an hour.

Xi told Putin that the relationship between their countries had stood the test of time and that they had provided each other with “strategic guidance” in their more than 40 meetings over the past decade.

“China is ready to work with Russia to stay each other’s good neighbour, good friend and good partner,” state news agency Xinhua reported Xi as saying.

The leaders had declared a “no limits” partnership days before Putin sent his troops into Ukraine in February 2022. In March 2023, when Xi visited Moscow, he described a “ new era ” in the countries’ relationship, while in October, when Putin last visited Beijing, Xi spoke of the “ deep friendship ” between them.

Before the two-day visit, Putin, 71, said his choice of China as his first foreign destination since being sworn in as president for a fifth term underlined the “unprecedentedly high level of the strategic partnership” between the two countries as well as his close friendship with Xi, 70.

The two leaders will take part in an event to celebrate 75 years since the Soviet Union recognised the People’s Republic of China, declared by Mao Zedong following the communists’ victory in China’s civil war in 1949. Putin will visit Harbin in northeastern China, a city with strong ties to Russia.

In an interview with Xinhua, Putin appeared to give his backing to a 12-point Ukraine peace plan that China released to a lukewarm reception.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said any negotiations must include a restoration of the country’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression, and security guarantees for Ukraine.

China claims to be neutral in the conflict but has not condemned Russia for its invasion of a sovereign country.

Russia ‘useful’ for China

The two countries have made clear they want to remake the international order in line with their visions of how the world should be. Both are veto-holding members of the United Nations Security Council, alongside the United States, France and the United Kingdom.

“We should not underestimate Russia’s ‘usefulness’ as a friend without limits to China and Xi Jinping,” Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told Al Jazeera in an email.

“Russia is a valuable partner in displacing the US and changing the global order to a favourable one for China and Russia alike. Russia also sees Taiwan as an integral part of China, and we have already seen speculation about the war scenario in the Indo-Pacific and whether Russia would step up to help and join China in possible war efforts.”

Moscow has forged increasingly close ties with Beijing, diverting most of its energy exports to China and importing high-tech components for its military industries from Chinese companies amid Western sanctions.

The two countries have also deepened military ties, holding joint war games over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, and organising training for ground forces in each other’s territory.

China has stepped up military activity around self-ruled Taiwan as the island prepares for the May 20 inauguration of William Lai Ching-te , who was elected president in elections in January.

China claims the territory as its own and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve its goal.

With reporting by Erin Hale in Taipei, Taiwan

Watch CBS News

Putin visits Beijing as Russia and China stress "no-limits" relationship amid tension with the U.S.

Updated on: May 16, 2024 / 7:51 AM EDT / CBS/AP

Beijing  — Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked Chinese leader Xi Jinping for his efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine at a Beijing summit on Thursday, where the two leaders reaffirmed a "no-limits" partnership that has grown as both countries face rising tension with the West.

Putin's two-day state visit to one of his strongest allies came as his country's forces press an offensive in northeast Ukraine's Kharkiv region - the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The largely symbolic visit stressed the growing partnership between two countries that both face challenges in their relationships with the U.S. and Europe.

"Both sides want to show that despite what is happening globally, despite the pressure that both sides are facing from the U.S., both sides are not about to turn their backs on each other anytime soon," said Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor who studies Chinese foreign policy at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

Talk of peace in Ukraine, but no proposals

While both leaders said they were seeking an end to the war in Ukraine, they offered no new specifics in their public remarks Thursday afternoon. China has significant influence as a key supporter of Russia, both before and since its invasion. The country claims to take a neutral position in the conflict, but it has backed Moscow's contentions that Russia was provoked into attacking Ukraine by the West, and continues to supply Russia with key components that Moscow needs for its productions of weapons.

China proposed a broadly worded peace plan in 2023, but it was rejected by both Ukraine and the West for failing to call for Russia to leave occupied parts of Ukraine.

"China hopes for the early return of Europe to peace and stability and will continue to play a constructive role toward this," Xi said, speaking alongside Putin.

Putin said he would inform the Chinese leader in detail about "the situation in Ukraine," and said "we appreciate the initiative of our Chinese colleagues and friends to regulate the situation."

The two-year-old war has entered a critical stage with Russia's new offensive in Ukraine. Kyiv's depleted military is still waiting for new supplies of anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells from the United States after months of delay.

On the eve of the visit, Putin said in an interview with Chinese media that the Kremlin was prepared to negotiate over the conflict in Ukraine, "but such negotiations must take into account the interests of all countries involved in the conflict, including ours."

Putin said the Chinese proposal rejected by Ukraine last year could "lay the groundwork for a political and diplomatic process that would take into account Russia's security concerns and contribute to achieving a long-term and sustainable peace."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said any negotiations must include a restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression and security guarantees for Ukraine. 

The Ukrainian leader warned recently in an interview with CBS News that if the U.S. and NATO fail to help his military stop Putin's advance, Russia could bring his war directly "to Europe, and to the United States" as NATO's biggest member.

China and Russia's growing "no-limits" relationship

Before their remarks, the two leaders signed a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between their nations on their 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties. Xi said China and Russia would continue to uphold a position of non-alliance and non-confrontation.

The two autocratic countries — which two years ago suggested they were working together to offer a new "democratic world order" — also said in their joint statement Thursday that they would continue to consider the negative impact of the U.S. and NATO's strategy in the Asia-Pacific.

• The state of the U.S. Navy as China builds up its forces and threatens Taiwan

China has been increasingly assertive in its claims to a number of contested territories in the region recently, with tension between Beijing and the U.S. focused sharply on the future of the democratically governed island of Taiwan, just of China's east coast. Xi has vowed to assert Chinese control over the island, which the U.S. is bound by law to help defend, and he has never ruled out using force.

Thursday's meeting was yet another affirmation of the friendly "no limits" relationship the two leaders formalized in 2022, just before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Since then, Russia has become increasingly economically dependent on China as Western sanctions cut Moscow's access to much of the international trading system. China's increased trade with Russia, totaling $240 billion last year, has helped the country mitigate some of the worst blowback from sanctions.

Moscow has diverted the bulk of its energy exports to China and relies on Chinese companies for imports of high-tech components for its military industries — to circumvent Western sanctions.

"I and President Putin agree, we should actively look for convergence points of the interests of both countries, to develop each's advantages, and deepen integration of interests, realizing each others' achievements," Xi said.

Russia-China military ties have also strengthened over the last few years. They've held a series of joint war games , including naval drills and patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.

China remains a major market for Russian military hardware, while Beijing is also massively expanding its domestic defense industries, including building aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.

Putin has previously said Russia has been sharing highly sensitive military technologies with China that helped significantly bolster its defense capability. In October 2019, he mentioned that Russia was helping China to develop an early warning system to spot ballistic missile launches - a system involving ground-based radar and satellites that only Russia and the U.S. possessed.

• Nuclear Weapons
• Vladimir Putin

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Does the “no limits” relationship have limits?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarking on his first foreign trip since his splashy inauguration to a fifth term in office, and his destination is no surprise: China.

The two-day state visit beginning Thursday is expected to be heavy on pomp and ceremony, with effusive toasts and carefully choreographed gestures of friendship and mutual respect.

But status matters, and Putin is clearly the junior partner to Chinese President Xi Jinping. As the Economist magazine put it after the visit was announced: “Vladimir Putin will meet his big brother in Beijing.”

Despite inherent lopsidedness in their dealings — China is Russia’s principal trade partner, while Beijing’s largest export market is the United States — Xi has gone out of his way to imbue the visit with a sense of historic significance.

The two leaders are expected to sign a joint declaration after their talks, and there will be a gala celebration marking 75 years of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

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Putin — known for sometimes staging haughty keep-them-waiting displays when other leaders make the trek to the Kremlin — has taken a notably deferential tone toward his host.

In a pre-trip interview with China’s official Xinhua news agency, he expressed admiration for elements of Chinese culture, including martial arts and philosophy.

“Our peoples are bound by a long and strong tradition of friendship and cooperation,” he told Xinhua .

Putin’s expressions of gratitude are well-warranted. Since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine , Xi has propped up his Russian counterpart in a variety of crucial ways.

China has helped Putin weather wartime Western sanctions, extending a particular lifeline to Russia’s lucrative oil and gas industry. Over the last two-plus years, Russia’s energy exports to China have easily offset the rupture in what had been Moscow’s cozy prewar energy relationship with Europe.

In many ways, the strategic relationship serves both Beijing and Moscow — and represents, in the view of many analysts, two autocrats’ unified challenge to the West.

“China and Russia are forging a partnership increasingly reminiscent of a great power alliance,” military intelligence analyst Chels Michta wrote in a commentary this week for the Center for European Policy Analysis.

But while Xi and Putin share a disdain for a U.S.-led world order, their interests are not identical. And the Ukraine war is at times a complicating factor.

China does not provide Russia with weaponry. But the Biden administration has prodded Xi’s government over its sale to Russia of so-called dual-use items — components such as machine tools, microelectronics and rocket propellant, which have civilian and military uses.

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That came up last month when U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken visited Beijing and chided China for “powering Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine.”

Washington has also said it will take a harder line against Chinese-based financial institutions and firms that help Moscow circumvent wartime restrictions, warning of secondary sanctions against them.

Even as China publicly professes neutrality on Ukraine, many observers believe Putin was emboldened in his war aims by a joint pact struck with Beijing days before the invasion, proclaiming a “no-limits” partnership.

In the course of the Ukraine war, however, some points of friction have emerged. China has been made uneasy by Putin’s occasional strident nuclear threats , the latest of which came this month when the Kremlin announced it would conduct exercises simulating the use of tactical — or battlefield — nuclear weapons near Ukraine.

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In a variety of international settings — most recently during a high-profile European tour last week — Xi has expressed hopes for peace in Ukraine, even as he has refused to condemn Russia’s ongoing attempt to batter its neighbor into submission.

Ukraine has been careful not to publicly denigrate China’s peace proposals — a 12-point plan unveiled more than a year ago, followed by additional “principles” set forth last month — but the government in Kyiv and its allies believe that if Beijing wanted to genuinely play the conciliator, it could use its influence to rein in Putin.

On the eve of the visit, Putin praised the Chinese proposals, which were tepidly received elsewhere, as “realistic and constructive.” The Russian leader also draws frequent parallels between his contention that Ukraine rightfully belongs to Russia and China’s claim to Taiwan .

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During last week’s European tour, Xi joined France’s President Emmanuel Macron in calling for a “global truce” during the Summer Olympic Games in Paris — one that would theoretically apply in Ukraine, where the tempo of fighting has been intensifying .

Ukrainian military officials acknowledge that for the moment at least, Russia has battlefield momentum on its side , making new territorial seizures in Ukraine’s northeast and notching steady incremental gains on the eastern front lines.

Despite elaborate displays of Sino-Russian friendship, in some parts of the world the two see each other as rivals rather than partners.

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Xi is well aware that Putin’s international isolation leaves him at a disadvantage, and in some venues, such as Eastern Europe, that gives China greater economic latitude.

“The full-scale invasion of Ukraine is accelerating the process of China edging out Russia from Central and Eastern Europe,” wrote analyst Dimitar Bechev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center after Xi’s visit last week to Hungary and Serbia.

Putin, he wrote, “has become toxic in a way that the Chinese leadership is not.”

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Laura King is a Berlin-based reporter for the Los Angeles Times. A member of the Foreign/National staff, she primarily covers foreign affairs. She previously served as bureau chief in Jerusalem, Kabul and Cairo.

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave Vladimir Putin a red-carpet welcome in Beijing, and the pair extolled their relationship. But analysts say it’s mostly transactional.

Russian President Vladimir Putin touted his country’s relations with China as a “stabilizing” force in the world as he began a two-day state visit Thursday designed to portray him and Chinese President Xi Jinping as leaders offering an alternative to the U.S.-led world order.

The two leaders are at loggerheads with the liberal democratic order on multiple fronts: Western governments have been putting pressure on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine — and for Beijing to stop supporting the war, diplomatically and materially — while China is being accused of unfair trading practices that upset the global economic order.

Many analysts say the relationship is mostly transactional. But meeting in Beijing on Thursday for the second time in seven months, the pair walked in lockstep from the moment Xi greeted Putin in Tiananmen Square with a red-carpet welcome, complete with cannons firing, soldiers marching and a squad of jumping and cheering children. An orchestra played the popular Soviet-era song “Moscow Nights,” written in 1955.

In remarks after their meetings, Putin vowed to deepen economic ties with China in ways that are “reliably protected from the influence of third parties,” referring to the impacts of U.S.-led sanctions following his invasion of Ukraine.

He called the Sino-Russian relationship a “benchmark of cooperation” and thanked Xi for his efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine. While China has released a vague peace plan and called for an end to the war, it has not expressed strong criticism of Russia’s unprovoked invasion and seizure of territory — clear breaches of the U.N. charter.

“We have always firmly supported each other on issues involving each other’s core interests and major concerns,” Xi said, calling Putin an “old friend” and congratulating him on securing a new term as president.

Putin and Xi reaffirmed their shared vision of a “multipolar” world order, in which countries led by China and Russia can operate by a different set of rules than the ones set by the United States and other liberal democracies.

“Together, we defend the principles of justice and a democratic world order that reflects multipolar realities,” Putin said.

The two leaders spoke before reporters following their meeting in Beijing and after signing bilateral documents and a joint statement on deepening their partnership and strategic cooperation.

China is one of Russia’s only remaining trading partners and diplomatic allies following the invasion and has become a critical economic lifeline as Russia copes with mounting Western sanctions. Putin arrived with a large delegation that includes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov , several deputy prime ministers, and leaders of state-owned enterprises.

Later on Thursday, Putin also met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who is theoretically responsible for the country’s economy. The two leaders discussed how to more closely coordinate their economic interests, according to the Chinese readout of the meeting.

Xi and Putin marked 75 years of diplomatic relations at a celebratory concert, which was followed by a one-on-one meeting and a walk through a park.

The day wrapped up with a closed-door meeting over dinner with Xi, Putin and four top Russian officials: Belousov, Lavrov, Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu (the former defense minister) and Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy adviser. Putin said he planned to discuss the war in Ukraine over dinner.

On Friday, Putin is scheduled to attend the opening of the China-Russia trade fair in Harbin, a northern city close to the border with Russia, highlighting the countries’ increasingly close economic ties.

The trip underscores both leaders’ norm-busting tenures and autocratic tendencies: Xi visited Moscow in March last year, a few months after securing a third term as leader, while Putin’s arrival in Beijing marks his first overseas trip since beginning a fifth term as president this month.

China’s ongoing diplomatic and material support for Russia and the war against Ukraine — even as Beijing portrays itself as a potential mediator — troubles democracies, including the United States and those in Western Europe. In France last week , Xi declined to use his influence to pressure Moscow to end the war.

Xi is particularly interested in Russia winning in Ukraine because of what it could mean for his oft-stated ambitions to take control of Taiwan, the island democracy that has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party but which Beijing considers a breakaway province.

Xi has been closely watching to see what price Putin has been paying for using military force in Ukraine — and the extent of Western punishment for that force. Taiwan’s leaders — and other allies in the region, like Japan — have repeatedly warned that Ukraine today could be Taiwan tomorrow.

Analysts say Putin and Xi are likely to double down on their transactional relationship during this week’s meetings.

“Putin will push for more Chinese assistance in prosecuting his invasion of Ukraine. Xi will prod for further Russian support for China’s energy, food and national security priorities,” said Ryan Hass, a former China director on the National Security Council during the Obama administration. He is now at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“They will wrap their respective efforts within an aura of bonhomie and linked arms against Western pressure on them both,” Hass said.

The two leaders declared their countries had a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. They have met regularly since, with Xi’s trip to Moscow last year and the Russian leader traveling to China seven months later to commemorate a decade of Xi’s signature Belt and Road project.

Their mutual economic interests have grown since the invasion. China’s trade with Russia hit a record $240 billion in 2023 — up 63 percent from 2021, before the invasion, and already reaching a goal they planned for 2024. During that time, exports of Chinese electronics needed to produce precision-guided weapons systems saw a significant spike, Chinese customs data shows.

But trade flows have increased in both directions. Russia last year became China’s biggest oil supplier, as Beijing took advantage of its discounted prices. Western sanctions have isolated Russia, which has relatively few big customers left, and Moscow has turned to China and India as its primary gas and oil customers.

Some analysts note that although Russia is becoming an increasingly important market to China as a source for cheap gas and oil, Russia needs China now more than the other way around. China has a better relationship with the West and is not sanctioned as comprehensively as Russia is, and has a far bigger economy, they say.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar of international relations, said the economic cooperation that the two leaders are trumpeting is due to a strategic but short-term dependence on each other. They have been pushed together by U.S. sanctions.

“Even for energy, there is sufficient energy supply around the world, so China doesn’t have a particular need from Russia. Rather, we import their energy to help lessen the pressure they are under from the West,” Shen said.

China seeks balance in protecting its interests and is unlikely to adopt a stance totally aligned with Russia on controversial topics such as invading Ukraine, Shen said: “One cannot say through a joint statement that Russia has not invaded. Otherwise, how can we partner with other countries in the world?”

Thursday’s meetings also gave the two leaders a chance to assess the state of their cooperation and for Xi to better understand Putin’s thinking on the war, said Wan Qingsong, an associate professor at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai.

“It is time to compare notes with China now that Putin believes Russia is gaining an upper hand against Ukraine and has a bigger say in whether and when to end the war,” Wan said. “China may have a different assessment but needs to listen to what Russia has to say.”

The war has become the organizing principle for Russia’s foreign policy, said Alexander Gabuev, a Russia and China expert with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Every relationship is assessed through three elements, he said: What a country can bring to advance Putin’s war effort in Ukraine; what a country can do for Russia’s revenue streams to counter the impact of Western sanctions; and whether a country can help Moscow push back against the West.

China checks all three boxes, he said. “It shows that Russia doesn’t have any more important foreign partner than China.”

The question is what tangible actions will result from their meetings beyond lofty rhetoric about their partnership. But the most consequential outcomes of their meetings are not likely to be shared publicly, Gabuev said.

Those issues include ways the Russians can circumvent Western sanctions and “how much China will be willing to give at what pace and what visibility, given U.S. concerns and threat of sanctions” on China, he said. They would also discuss Russians’ potentially sharing designs for key technologies and weapons with the Chinese, and the overall strategic direction of their bilateral relations, he said.

“There will be the underwater part of the iceberg,” Gabuev said.

Lee and Wu reported from Taipei, Taiwan. Lyric Li in Seoul and Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report.

Putin and Xi Pledge a New Era and Condemn the United States

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a tea ceremony in Beijing's Zhongnanhai park, China May 16, 2024. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS

By Bernard Orr, Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn

BEIJING/MOSCOW (Reuters) -China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin on Thursday pledged a "new era" of partnership between the two most powerful rivals of the United States, which they cast as an aggressive Cold War hegemon sowing chaos across the world.

Xi greeted Putin on a red carpet outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where they were hailed by marching People's Liberation Army soldiers, a 21-gun salute on Tiananmen Square and children waving the flags of China and Russia.

China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing just days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two.

Xi, 70, and Putin, 71, signed a joint statement on Thursday about the "new era" that proclaimed opposition to the U.S. on a host of security issues and a shared view on everything from Taiwan and Ukraine to North Korea and cooperation on new peaceful nuclear technologies and finance.

"The China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it," Xi told Putin.

"China is willing to ... jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries, and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world."

Russia, waging war against NATO-supplied Ukrainian forces, and China, under pressure from a concerted U.S. effort to counter its growing military and economic strength, increasingly have found common geopolitical cause.

Xi has told Putin the two have the chance to drive changes the world has not seen in a century, which many analysts see as an attempt to challenge a U.S.-led global order.

Their governments, pushing back against perceived humiliations of the 1991 Soviet collapse and centuries of European colonial dominance of China, have sought to portray the West as decadent and in decline, with China challenging U.S. supremacy in everything from quantum computing and synthetic biology to espionage and hard military power.

But China and Russia face their own challenges, including a slowing Chinese economy and an emboldened and expanding NATO following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Washington casts China as its biggest competitor and Russia as its biggest nation-state threat.

The U.S. views both as authoritarian rulers who have quashed free speech and exerted tight control at home over the media and the courts. Biden has referred to Xi as a "dictator" and has said Putin is a "killer" and even a "crazy SOB". Beijing and Moscow have scolded Biden for the comments.

WEST VERSUS XI AND PUTIN?

Putin's visit comes weeks after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to China to raise concerns about China's support for Russia's military.

That trip appears to have done little to dent Xi's deepening relationship with Putin.

By picking China for his first foreign trip since being sworn in this month for another six-year term, Putin is sending a message to the world about his priorities and the strength of his personal ties with Xi.

The joint statement was described as deepening the strategic relationship, and mentioned plans to step up military ties and how defence sector cooperation between the two nations improved regional and global security.

It singled out the United States for criticism.

"The United States still thinks in terms of the Cold War and is guided by the logic of bloc confrontation, putting the security of 'narrow groups' above regional security and stability, which creates a security threat for all countries in the region," the statement said. "The U.S. must abandon this behaviour."

It also condemned initiatives to seize assets and property of foreign states, a clear reference to Western moves to redirect profits from frozen Russian assets or the assets themselves, to help Ukraine.

State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told a daily news briefing that China "cannot have its cake and eat it too" in backing Moscow.

"You can't want to have good, further, stronger, deepened relationships with Europe and other countries while simultaneously continuing to fuel the biggest threat to European security in a long time," Patel said, calling Beijing's help in reconstituting Russia's defence industrial base "deeply problematic".

After the West imposed the most severe sanctions in modern history on Moscow due to the war in Ukraine, Putin pivoted Russia towards China.

Beijing, once the junior partner to Moscow, remains by far the most powerful of Russia's friends - and its top buyer of crude.

That closeness has perturbed some in the Russian elite who fear that Russia is now too dependent on China, with which the Soviet Union came to the brink of war in 1969 over a border dispute.

Xi said both sides agreed that a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis was the "right direction" and the joint statement said both countries were opposed to a drawn out conflict.

Putin, who arrived on Thursday for a two-day visit, said he was grateful to China for trying to solve the Ukraine crisis, adding that he would brief Xi on the situation there, where Russian forces are advancing on several fronts.

Describing his initial talks with Xi as "warm and comradely", he outlined sectors where the two countries were strengthening ties, from nuclear and energy cooperation to food supplies and Chinese car manufacturing in Russia.

One notable absence from Putin's delegation was Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, who was holding talks with Iranian officials.

Putin and Xi will participate in a gala celebration marking 75 years since the Soviet Union recognised the People's Republic of China, which Mao Zedong declared in 1949.

It was not immediately clear if Putin would make any further stops in Asia.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow and Bernard Orr in Beijing; additional reporting by Moscow and Beijing newsrooms and Daphne Psaledakis and Michael Martina in Washington; Writing by Andrew Osborn and Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Clarence Fernandez, Alex Richardson and Nick Macfie)

Copyright 2024 Thomson Reuters .

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Putin’s visit to Mongolia defies ICC warrant and tests neutral nation’s ‘third neighbor’ diplomacy

Associate Professor of Asian Studies, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Professor of Business, Royal Roads University

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Charles Krusekopf is affiliated with the American Center for Mongolian Studies.

Christopher K. Tong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia on Sept. 2 , 2024, the first time the Russian president has visited an International Criminal Court (ICC) member country since the body issued a warrant for his arrest in 2023. While officially commemorating a Soviet-Mongolian military victory in World War II, Putin’s visit will test the small central Asian country’s policy of neutrality and the reach of international institutions.

Mongolia, a country of just 3.3 million people but with huge geographical territory, has long navigated its foreign policy in the shadow of Russia and China, with whom it has extensive historical and economic ties.

The country has attempted to bolster its independence from its more powerful neighbors by developing cordial relations with so-called third neighbor countries that include the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

Through this approach, Mongolia has attempted to carve out a niche on the international stage, presenting itself as a neutral diplomatic meeting ground. Its annual Ulaanbaatar Dialogue , for example, is an opportunity for regional countries and other invited nations, including from the U.S. and EU member states, to discuss issues ranging from climate change to regional security and critical minerals .

As scholars of Mongolia and China , we attended the last such dialogue in June 2024 and witnessed Mongolia’s diplomatic efforts firsthand. It is a strategy that has worked for the country, but as events like Putin’s visit highlight, it can be a tough balancing act.

A closely watched visit

The timing of Putin’s trip is officially linked to history. It marks both the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol – in which joint Soviet-Mongolian forces defeated Japanese troops in World War II – and the founding of Mongolia’s national railway operator by the two countries 75 years ago.

Yet it is a third historical marker, the fifth anniversary of a comprehensive Russian-Mongolian strategic partnership , that highlights the visit’s significance from a modern geopolitical perspective.

Alongside its friendly relations with “third neighbors,” Mongolia has maintained a close relationship with Moscow despite Putin’s pariah status in much of the international community. Most recently, in July, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh met with Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit .

Yet Putin’s visit now – the first he has made to the country since 2019 – poses a challenge for Mongolia as it seeks to balance its obligations and alliances with the Western-led international order , of which the ICC is a part, and its desire to remain friendly with its powerful neighbors.

Few things demonstrate this diplomatic tightrope walk like Mongolia’s membership in the ICC, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin over his alleged role in the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. Ukraine has urged Mongolia to detain Putin, citing the ICC’s founding treaty, the Rome Statute , which instructs member countries to take action if subjects to a court warrant enter their territory.

However, the ICC lacks an effective enforcement mechanism, and member states may also be exempt from carrying out arrests if doing so conflicts with certain treaty obligations or diplomatic immunity offered to another party.

Putin’s visit is expected to demonstrate how little can be done to rein in Moscow. Given the power imbalance between the states, Mongolia will likely show just how far it is willing to go to accommodate its powerful neighbor.

Mongolia’s ‘Third Neighbor’ policy

For almost 70 years, Mongolia was closely allied with the Soviet Union. But the fall of communism and subsequent geopolitical reorientation of the post-Cold War order forced the country to alter its economic and political relations.

In so doing, Mongolia became the only former communist state in Asia to adopt a democratic political system and open economy . It won favor with the U.S. and other Western countries who embraced the country as a role model for the region.

Putin’s expected trip is but the latest in a series of recent high-profile state visits as Mongolia seeks to maintain close relations with its neighbors, while also expanding partnerships with other nations.

So far in 2024, Mongolia has received heads of state or foreign ministers from the U.S., Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the United Kingdom and Germany. In 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the U.S. and met with Vice President Kamala Harris , and to China to see President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Francis have recently visited Ulaanbaatar.

Mongolia can’t escape geography

While soft power efforts have won Ulaanbaatar goodwill and friends around the globe, they do not trump geography. Landlocked between Russia and China, Mongolia remains vulnerable to the whims of its two giant neighbors.

Mongolia is dependent on Russia for almost all its gasoline and diesel supplies and a substantial part of its electricity. Further, due to a legacy agreement from the Soviet era , Russia retains 50% ownership in several key infrastructure and mining projects in Mongolia. In particular, Russia is a partner in the Mongolian railway system , which has grown in importance as a trade corridor between China and Russia, and China and Europe.

Mongolia fears that its fuel supplies and transportation network will be disrupted if Russia prioritizes its own energy needs in the midst of war over the interests of its neighbors, however deep those ties may be.

Similarly, Mongolia is dependent on China for the majority of its non-energy imports, including food, consumer and industrial products. And China is the destination for 90% of Mongolia’s exports, primarily coal and copper.

Both Russia and China have used their economic and political muscle as leverage over Mongolia in the past due to perceived slights, such as China’s disruption of trade and a key loan in 2016 in protest of a visit to Mongolia by the Dalai Lama .

Mongolia and the new China-Russia alignment

Mongolia and other states in Central Asia face new challenges as Russia and China grow closer politically and economically .

Mongolia played the role of a buffer state between the Soviet Union and China for much of the 20th century, and counted on the rivalry between the two superpowers to gain and maintain its independent status.

But the growing friendship between China and Russia – highlighted by Putin and Xi’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership in February 2022, just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine – raises the question whether China and Russia will begin to act in concert to gain even more leverage over Mongolia and other smaller states in region.

It is these geopolitical concerns that Ulaanbaatar may be fixated upon during Putin’s visit. Even as Mongolia has been affected by the sanctions placed on Russia, seeing transportation and business links disrupted , the country has steered clear of confrontations with Moscow in international settings.

Along with China, Mongolia routinely abstains from United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But in a sign that Mongolia remains committed to its third neighbor policy, it has also been careful not to violate the sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and its allies.

While Mongolia recognizes the importance of Putin’s visit to maintain good ties and the flow of fuel to the country, it will also be concerned with how the visit and its anticipated non-enforcement of ICC sanctions will hurt the country’s standing with global institutions and powers outside the region.

In a shifting world order, Mongolia is working hard to maintain independence by emphasizing its role as a neutral state and friend to all. But visits such as Putin’s show how difficult that endeavor can be.

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Putin Expects Xi Jinping at Upcoming BRICS Summit in Kazan

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that he expects Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend next month's BRICS summit in the Tatarstan capital of Kazan.

Since ordering the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has increasingly turned to Xi for support, with Russia and China boosting trade to record levels amid heavy Western sanctions against Moscow.

"As agreed, we are expecting Chinese President Mr. Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit," Putin said during a meeting with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

BRICS, originally formed in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, aims to bring together the world's most important emerging economies, as well as act as a political and economic counterbalance to wealthier nations in the West.

The group of countries expanded earlier this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Putin said earlier this week that Russia will be the first BRICS member to host a summit, which will take place in Kazan on Oct. 22-24, following the group's enlargement.

Moscow and Beijing, which both oppose "Western hegemony" and U.S. global dominance, declared a "no limits" partnership just before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Last month, Putin noted that Russia's economic and trade relations with China were "yielding results" during Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to the Kremlin.

On Tuesday, the Russian leader invited   Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan.

AFP contributed reporting.

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Putin Applauds 'Dear Friend' Xi on His 70th Birthday

In Photos: Putin and Xi Shore Up Sino-Russian Alliance Despite Differing Agendas

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Putin Visits China to Bolster Ties With ‘My Friend,’ Xi

The Russian leader is likely to push for more economic support when he meets with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing.

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By David Pierson Anatoly Kurmanaev and Keith Bradsher

When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia meets with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Beijing this week, both men will likely seek to demonstrate the strength of their “no limits” partnership in challenging the Western-dominated global order.

The visit comes at a time of turmoil in the Middle East after Hamas’s attack on Israel this month, which has led to Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and expectations of a ground invasion. Both Russia and China have refrained from following the lead of Western countries by condemning Hamas directly.

Instead, the two countries have called for an end to the violence and a revival of talks about a Palestinian state. China’s foreign minister this weekend accused Israel of going too far in its reprisals in Gaza, echoing an earlier denunciation by Egypt. And Mr. Putin urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, during a phone call on Monday, to “avert a humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip.”

The Chinese and Russian alignment over the Israel-Hamas conflict reflects their geopolitical ambitions. Both countries have tried to cast themselves as leaders of the developing world, partly to bolster their standing with the oil-rich Arab world. They have also reinforced their own relationship over a common interest in eroding American global power.

Mr. Putin’s visit highlights Moscow’s dependence on China for support as his war in Ukraine, which has led to international sanctions on Russia, grinds toward a stalemate. Mr. Xi is Mr. Putin’s most important partner on the global stage and has provided the Russian leader with diplomatic cover and a financial lifeline after Western-led countries punished Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

“Chairman Xi Jinping calls me his friend, and I call him my friend,” Mr. Putin told Chinese state media ahead of his Beijing visit.

Mr. Putin arrived in Beijing on Tuesday to attend the Belt and Road Forum , a meeting about Mr. Xi’s signature foreign policy initiative aimed at using infrastructure projects to expand China’s influence abroad.

The trip is only Mr. Putin’s second outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest on suspicion of war crimes in March. Mr. Putin traveled to Kyrgyzstan last week to participate in a summit of former Soviet states. Last month, he skipped a gathering of the BRICS nations in South Africa and the Group of 20 summit in India.

In China, the Kremlin said, Mr. Putin will join Mr. Xi on Wednesday for meetings accompanied by ministers. The two men will also meet one-on-one.

Among Mr. Putin’s top priorities is the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help redirect Russian gas supplies that had gone to Europe toward China instead. It is unclear how much Beijing supports the project, which requires constructing a pipeline through Mongolia.

Completing a deal is further complicated by the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could have unpredictable effects on the Middle East and affect the global price of natural gas. “There are just too many uncertainties,” to figure out a pricing deal now, said Yan Qin, the lead energy analyst for the London Stock Exchange Group.

Trade between China and Russia has grown 30 percent in the first nine months of the year, and total business in 2023 is expected to break last year’s record of $190 billion. More than a third of all Russian oil exports now go to China, providing the Kremlin with a crucial source of war funding. The fighting appears to be settling into a prolonged war of attrition, with military experts saying that both sides face decreasing prospects of delivering a decisive blow that could bring about an end.

For China, the status quo suits its interests. The stabilization of the front lines in Ukraine means that Beijing does not need to dramatically intervene on Russia’s side to prevent a military defeat that could shake Mr. Putin’s grip on power. And the drawn-out, inconclusive war leaves Russia economically and diplomatically dependent on China and too distracted to counter Beijing in areas where their geopolitical interests overlap, such as Central Asia.

“China is not ready to throw Russia under the bus,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

China, for its part, has stepped in to fill the gap left by Western companies in Russia’s consumer market. One of every two cars sold in Russia today, for example, comes from China. Before the war, Chinese car sales to Russia were negligible.

Though China remains the senior partner in the relationship, the weak recovery of China’s economy from the pandemic has somewhat improved Russia’s bargaining position since the two leaders last met, in Moscow in March, Mr. Gabuev said.

Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin declared a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Moscow’s invasion, to signal their alignment in opposing what they call U.S. hegemony. While that alignment still holds, China has had to hedge its relationship with Russia to manage its ties with important trading partners, such as the European Union.

China has tried to cast itself as neutral on the war, which has entered its 21st month. Earlier this year, Beijing issued a proposed political settlement to end the fighting, though the plan was criticized by Washington and some of its allies for protecting Russian interests.

Russia has also tried to demonstrate that it has autonomy in its relationship with China. Mr. Putin hosted North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, in Russia last month — a move seen as a hedge by Moscow against Beijing.

State-affiliated Chinese analysts argue that Beijing seeks to maintain an image of independence on the global stage. “It has become very clear that China does not want to stand on the same side completely with Russia on all issues,” said Xiao Bin, a researcher for the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “China has its own practical problems to solve.”

For China, the war in Ukraine has given it access to discounted Russian oil and diverted American resources — both financial and military — away from China’s periphery in Asia. But the war has also galvanized more global concern about Beijing’s aggressive claims over the de facto independent island of Taiwan. China’s support of Russia has also roiled its relations with Europe, a region Beijing had hoped to court to weaken trans-Atlantic unity on issues like trade and investment restrictions directed at China.

This week’s meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin comes as Beijing and Washington are working toward arresting a downward spiral in relations. But analysts say China’s long-term interests still favor close ties with Russia.

“The bromance is going strong, and in essence remains unaffected by the thaw in U.S.-China relations,” Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said about Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. “China clearly doesn’t believe in the sustainability of such a thaw, so Russia remains a key partner” in countering the United States.

Ms. Sun said China was currently focused on improving ties with the United States and may offer to help ease the Gaza crisis if it means gaining some leverage over Washington.

“On a strategic level, China is competing for influence in the Middle East,” she said. “But on a tactical level and in the short run, the Chinese would love it if the U.S. asked for help.”

Olivia Wang contributed reporting.

David Pierson covers Chinese foreign policy and China’s economic and cultural engagement with the world. More about David Pierson

Anatoly Kurmanaev is a foreign correspondent covering Russia’s transformation after its invasion of Ukraine. More about Anatoly Kurmanaev

Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He has lived and reported in mainland China through the pandemic. More about Keith Bradsher

Our Coverage of the Middle East Crisis

Israel's Many Wars :   While the war with Hamas in Gaza attracts the most attention , Israel is also battling along its border with Lebanon, waging a counterinsurgency in the occupied West Bank and exchanging sporadic fire with Iran and its regional proxies.

Netanyahu Digs In:   In his first news conference since the bodies of six killed hostages  were recovered, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel refused to budge on his conditions for any truce in Gaza .

Biden’s Terse Rebuke:   President Biden, when asked whether Netanyahu was doing enough to secure a deal to free hostages in Gaza, responded simply: “No.”

The Hostages Still in Gaza:   Dozens of hostages abducted in the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel remain in captivity, according to the Israeli authorities. Here is what we know about them .

Gaza’s Polio Crisis:   The W.H.O. said that the campaign to vaccinate 640,000 children in Gaza against polio had so far been more successful than expected .

Mongolia explained why it didn't arrest Putin when he visited

• Putin received a red-carpet welcome from Mongolia, despite its legal obligation to arrest him.
• A Mongolian spokesperson said the country didn't arrest him because it depends on Russian oil imports.
• Ukraine condemned Mongolia for not arresting Putin, calling it a blow to international justice.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia this week — and left the country a free man.

In theory, that shouldn't have happened — Mongolia is a member of the International Criminal Court and is supposed to enforce the organization's arrest warrant for Putin .

Instead, Mongolia gave Putin a red-carpet welcome and reporters a frank explanation.

In short — Russia sends too much oil and electricity for Mongolia to arrest its leader and risk ruining that economic lifeline.

The explanation came in a statement to Politico on Tuesday . It didn't name Russia but made the dynamic clear.

"Mongolia imports 95% of its petroleum products and over 20% of electricity from our immediate neighborhood, which have previously suffered interruption for technical reasons. This supply is critical to ensure our existence and that of our people," the spokesperson said.

Russia and Mongolia have a border spanning more than 2,000 miles.

The spokesperson said that Mongolia instead pursued "a policy of neutrality in all its diplomatic relations," which appears to preclude the arrest of heads of other states.

A separate statement on the Kremlin's website said the two countries signed an agreement on "cooperation in the field of oil and oil product supplies," which further strengthens their ties in the area.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity , Russia exported about $1.43 billion of refined petroleum to Mongolia in 2022.

Related stories

Talita Dias, an international-law expert, told Business Insider before the trip that Mongolia would not arrest Putin when he landed for his visit, the first in a decade.

Dias cited the lack of serious international consequences for ignoring the warrant.

"There will be legal proceedings, probably at the ICC," she said, adding: "There would be a finding that Mongolia has breached the Rome Statute. Maybe some countries will sanction Mongolia for that, and then that's it."

A spokesperson for Ukraine's foreign ministry condemned Mongolia for not fulfilling its obligations as an ICC member. In a post on Telegram, Heorhii Tykhyi said: "Mongolia has allowed an accused criminal to evade justice, thereby sharing responsibility for the war crimes."

He added that Mongolia's refusal to arrest Putin was "a heavy blow to ICC and the international criminal justice system."

Watch: China's Xi Jinping praises Vladimir Putin during visit to Russia

• Main content

Putin’s visit to Mongolia defies ICC warrant and tests neutral nation’s ‘third neighbor’ diplomacy

Published: Sep 3, 2024

By: Magazine Editor

Written by Christopher K. Tong , associate professor of Asian studies at UMBC and Charles Krusekopf , professor of business Royal Roads University

Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia on Sept. 2 , 2024, the first time the Russian president has visited an International Criminal Court (ICC) member country since the body issued a warrant for his arrest in 2023. While officially commemorating a Soviet-Mongolian military victory in World War II, Putin’s visit will test the small central Asian country’s policy of neutrality and the reach of international institutions.

Mongolia, a country of just 3.3 million people but with huge geographical territory, has long navigated its foreign policy in the shadow of Russia and China, with whom it has extensive historical and economic ties.

The country has attempted to bolster its independence from its more powerful neighbors by developing cordial relations with so-called third neighbor countries that include the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

Through this approach, Mongolia has attempted to carve out a niche on the international stage, presenting itself as a neutral diplomatic meeting ground. Its annual Ulaanbaatar Dialogue , for example, is an opportunity for regional countries and other invited nations, including from the U.S. and EU member states, to discuss issues ranging from climate change to regional security and critical minerals .

As scholars of Mongolia and China , we attended the last such dialogue in June 2024 and witnessed Mongolia’s diplomatic efforts firsthand. It is a strategy that has worked for the country, but as events like Putin’s visit highlight, it can be a tough balancing act.

A closely watched visit

The timing of Putin’s trip is officially linked to history. It marks both the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol – in which joint Soviet-Mongolian forces defeated Japanese troops in World War II – and the founding of Mongolia’s national railway operator by the two countries 75 years ago.

Yet it is a third historical marker, the fifth anniversary of a comprehensive Russian-Mongolian strategic partnership , that highlights the visit’s significance from a modern geopolitical perspective.

Alongside its friendly relations with “third neighbors,” Mongolia has maintained a close relationship with Moscow despite Putin’s pariah status in much of the international community. Most recently, in July, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh met with Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit .

Yet Putin’s visit now – the first he has made to the country since 2019 – poses a challenge for Mongolia as it seeks to balance its obligations and alliances with the Western-led international order , of which the ICC is a part, and its desire to remain friendly with its powerful neighbors.

Few things demonstrate this diplomatic tightrope walk like Mongolia’s membership in the ICC, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin over his alleged role in the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. Ukraine has urged Mongolia to detain Putin, citing the ICC’s founding treaty, the Rome Statute , which instructs member countries to take action if subjects to a court warrant enter their territory.

However, the ICC lacks an effective enforcement mechanism, and member states may also be exempt from carrying out arrests if doing so conflicts with certain treaty obligations or diplomatic immunity offered to another party.

Putin’s visit is expected to demonstrate how little can be done to rein in Moscow. Given the power imbalance between the states, Mongolia will likely show just how far it is willing to go to accommodate its powerful neighbor.

Mongolia’s ‘Third Neighbor’ policy

For almost 70 years, Mongolia was closely allied with the Soviet Union. But the fall of communism and subsequent geopolitical reorientation of the post-Cold War order forced the country to alter its economic and political relations.

In so doing, Mongolia became the only former communist state in Asia to adopt a democratic political system and open economy . It won favor with the U.S. and other Western countries who embraced the country as a role model for the region.

Putin’s expected trip is but the latest in a series of recent high-profile state visits as Mongolia seeks to maintain close relations with its neighbors, while also expanding partnerships with other nations.

So far in 2024, Mongolia has received heads of state or foreign ministers from the U.S., Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the United Kingdom and Germany. In 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the U.S. and met with Vice President Kamala Harris , and to China to see President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Francis have recently visited Ulaanbaatar.

Mongolia can’t escape geography

While soft power efforts have won Ulaanbaatar goodwill and friends around the globe, they do not trump geography. Landlocked between Russia and China, Mongolia remains vulnerable to the whims of its two giant neighbors.

Mongolia is dependent on Russia for almost all its gasoline and diesel supplies and a substantial part of its electricity. Further, due to a legacy agreement from the Soviet era , Russia retains 50% ownership in several key infrastructure and mining projects in Mongolia. In particular, Russia is a partner in the Mongolian railway system , which has grown in importance as a trade corridor between China and Russia, and China and Europe.

Mongolia fears that its fuel supplies and transportation network will be disrupted if Russia prioritizes its own energy needs in the midst of war over the interests of its neighbors, however deep those ties may be.

Similarly, Mongolia is dependent on China for the majority of its non-energy imports, including food, consumer and industrial products. And China is the destination for 90% of Mongolia’s exports, primarily coal and copper.

Both Russia and China have used their economic and political muscle as leverage over Mongolia in the past due to perceived slights, such as China’s disruption of trade and a key loan in 2016 in protest of a visit to Mongolia by the Dalai Lama .

Mongolia and the new China-Russia alignment

Mongolia and other states in Central Asia face new challenges as Russia and China grow closer politically and economically .

Mongolia played the role of a buffer state between the Soviet Union and China for much of the 20th century, and counted on the rivalry between the two superpowers to gain and maintain its independent status.

But the growing friendship between China and Russia – highlighted by Putin and Xi’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership in February 2022, just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine – raises the question whether China and Russia will begin to act in concert to gain even more leverage over Mongolia and other smaller states in region.

It is these geopolitical concerns that Ulaanbaatar may be fixated upon during Putin’s visit. Even as Mongolia has been affected by the sanctions placed on Russia, seeing transportation and business links disrupted , the country has steered clear of confrontations with Moscow in international settings.

Along with China, Mongolia routinely abstains from United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But in a sign that Mongolia remains committed to its third neighbor policy, it has also been careful not to violate the sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and its allies.

While Mongolia recognizes the importance of Putin’s visit to maintain good ties and the flow of fuel to the country, it will also be concerned with how the visit and its anticipated non-enforcement of ICC sanctions will hurt the country’s standing with global institutions and powers outside the region.

In a shifting world order, Mongolia is working hard to maintain independence by emphasizing its role as a neutral state and friend to all. But visits such as Putin’s show how difficult that endeavor can be.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article and see  more than 250 UMBC articles  available in The Conversation.

Tags: Asian studies , CAHSS , International , Research

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