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Tourism and Competitiveness

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The tourism sector provides opportunities for developing countries to create productive and inclusive jobs, grow innovative firms, finance the conservation of natural and cultural assets, and increase economic empowerment, especially for women, who comprise the majority of the tourism sector’s workforce. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism was the world’s largest service sector—providing one in ten jobs worldwide,  almost seven percent of all international trade and  25 percent of the world’s service exports —a critical foreign exchange generator.  In 2019 the sector was valued at more than US$9 trillion and accounted for 10.4 percent of global GDP.

Tourism offers opportunities for economic diversification and market-creation. When effectively managed, its deep local value chains can expand demand for existing and new products and services that directly and positively impact the poor and rural/isolated communities. The sector can also be a force for biodiversity conservation, heritage protection, and climate-friendly livelihoods, making up a key pillar of the blue/green economy. This potential is also associated with social and environmental risks, which need to be managed and mitigated to maximize the sector’s net-positive benefits.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for tourism service providers, with a loss of 20 percent of all tourism jobs (62 million), and US$1.3 trillion in export revenue, leading to a reduction of 50 percent of its  contribution to GDP  in 2020 alone. The collapse of demand has severely impacted the livelihoods of tourism-dependent communities, small businesses and women-run enterprises. It has also reduced government tax revenues and constrained the availability of resources for destination management and site conservation.

Naturalist local guide with group of tourist in Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve Ecuador. Photo: Ammit Jack/Shutterstock

Tourism and Competitiveness Strategic Pillars

Our solutions are integrated across the following areas:

• Competitive and Productive Tourism Markets. We work with government and private sector stakeholders to foster competitive tourism markets that create productive jobs, improve visitor expenditure and impact, and are supportive of high-growth, innovative firms. To do so we offer guidance on firm and destination level recovery, policy and regulatory reforms, demand diversification, investment promotion and market access. 
• Blue, Green and Resilient Tourism Economies. We support economic diversification to sustain natural capital and tourism assets, prepare for external and climate-related shocks, and be sustainably managed through strong policy, coordination, and governance improvements. To do so we offer support to align the tourism enabling and policy environment towards sustainability, while improving tourism destination and site planning, development, and management. We work with governments to enhance the sector’s resilience and to foster the development of innovative sustainable financing instruments.
• Inclusive Value Chains. We work with client governments and intermediaries to support Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs), and strengthen value chains that provide equitable livelihoods for communities, women, youth, minorities, and local businesses. 

The successful design and implementation of reforms in the tourism space requires the combined effort of diverse line ministries and agencies, and an understanding of the impact of digital technologies in the industry. Accordingly, our teams support cross-cutting issues of tourism governance and coordination, digital innovation and the use and application of data throughout the three focus areas of work.

Tourism and Competitiveness Theory of Change 

Examples of our projects:

• In Indonesia , a US$955m loan is supporting the Government’s Integrated Infrastructure Development for National Tourism Strategic Areas Project. This project is designed to improve the quality of, and access to, tourism-relevant basic infrastructure and services, strengthen local economy linkages to tourism, and attract private investment in selected tourism destinations. In its initial phases, the project has supported detailed market and demand analyses needed to justify significant public investment, mobilized integrated tourism destination masterplans for each new destination and established essential coordination mechanisms at the national level and at all seventeen of the Project’s participating districts and cities.
• In Madagascar , a series of projects totaling US$450m in lending and IFC Technical Assistance have contributed to the sustainable growth of the tourism sector by enhancing access to enabling infrastructure and services in target regions. Activities under the project focused on providing support to SMEs, capacity building to institutions, and promoting investment and enabling environment reforms. They resulted in the creation of more than 10,000 jobs and the registration of more than 30,000 businesses. As a result of COVID-19, the project provided emergency support both to government institutions (i.e., Ministry of Tourism) and other organizations such as the National Tourism Promotion Board to plan, strategize and implement initiatives to address effects of the pandemic and support the sector’s gradual relaunch, as well as to directly support tourism companies and workers groups most affected by the crisis. 
• In Sierra Leone , an Economic Diversification Project has a strong focus on sustainable tourism development.  The project is contributing significantly to the COVID-19 recovery, with its focus on the creation of six new tourism destinations, attracting new private investment, and building the capacity of government ministries to successfully manage and market their tourism assets.  This project aims to contribute to the development of more circular economy tourism business models, and support the growth of women- run tourism businesses.  
• Through the Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness: Tourism Response, Recovery and Resilience to the COVID-19 Crisis initiative and the Tourism for Development Learning Series , we held webinars, published insights and guidance notes as well as formed new partnerships with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, United Nations Environment Program, United Nations World Tourism Organization, and World Travel and Tourism Council to exchange knowledge on managing tourism throughout the pandemic, planning for recovery and building back better. The initiative’s key Policy Note has been downloaded more than 20,000 times and has been used to inform recovery initiatives in over 30 countries across 6 regions.
• The Global Aviation Dashboard  is a platform that visualizes real-time changes in global flight movements, allowing users to generate 2D & 3D visualizations, charts, graphs, and tables; and ranking animations for: flight volume, seat volume, and available seat kilometers.  Data is available for domestic, intra-regional, and inter-regional routes across all regions, countries, airports, and airlines on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis from January 2020 until today. The dashboard has been used to track the status and recovery of global travel and inform policy and operational actions.

Traditional Samburu women in Kenya. Photo: hecke61/Shutterstock.

Featured Data

We-Fi WeTour Women in Tourism Enterprise Surveys (2019)

• Sierra Leone  |  Ghana

Featured Reports 

• Destination Management Handbook: A Guide to the Planning and Implementation of Destination Management  (2023)
• Blue Tourism in Islands and Small Tourism-Dependent Coastal States : Tools and Recovery Strategies (2022)
• Resilient Tourism: Competitiveness in the Face of Disasters  (2020)
• Tourism and the Sharing Economy: Policy and Potential of Sustainable Peer-to-Peer Accommodation  (2018)
• Supporting Sustainable Livelihoods through Wildlife Tourism  (2018)
• The Voice of Travelers: Leveraging User-Generated Content for Tourism Development  (2018)
• Women and Tourism: Designing for Inclusion  (2017)
• Twenty Reasons Sustainable Tourism Counts for Development  (2017)
• An introduction to tourism concessioning:14 characteristics of successful programs.  The World Bank, 2016)
• Getting financed: 9 tips for community joint ventures in tourism . World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and World Bank, (2015)
• Global investment promotion best practices: Winning tourism investment” Investment Climate  (2013)

Country-Specific

• COVID-19 and Tourism in South Asia: Opportunities for Sustainable Regional Outcomes  (2020)
• Demand Analysis for Tourism in African Local Communities  (2018)
• Tourism in Africa: Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods . Africa Development Forum (2014)

COVID-19 Response

• Expecting the Unexpected : Tools and Policy Considerations to Support the Recovery and Resilience of the Tourism Sector (2022)
• Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness. Tourism response, recovery and resilience to the COVID-19 crisis  (2020)
• COVID-19 and Tourism in South Asia Opportunities for Sustainable Regional Outcomes  (2020)  
• WBG support for tourism clients and destinations during the COVID-19 crisis  (2020)
• Tourism for Development: Tourism Diagnostic Toolkit  (2019)
• Tourism Theory of Change  (2018)

Country   -Specific

• COVID Impact Mitigation Survey Results  (South Africa) (2020)
• COVID Preparedness for Reopening Survey Results  (South Africa) (2020)
• COVID Study  (Fiji) (2020) with   IFC

Featured Blogs

• Fiona Stewart, Samantha Power & Shaun Mann ,  Harnessing the power of capital markets to conserve and restore global biodiversity through “Natural Asset Companies”   | October 12 th  2021
• Mari Elka Pangestu ,  Tourism in the post-COVID world: Three steps to build better forward  | April 30 th  2021
• Hartwig Schafer ,  Regional collaboration can help South Asian nations rebuild and strengthen tourism industry  | July 23 rd  2020
• Caroline Freund ,  We can’t travel, but we can take measures to preserve jobs in the tourism industry  | March 20 th  2020

Featured Webinars

• Destination Management for Resilient Growth . This webinar looks at emerging destinations at the local level to examine the opportunities, examples, and best tools available. Destination Management Handbook
• Launch of the Future of Pacific Tourism. This webinar goes through the results of the new Future of Pacific Tourism report. It was launched by FCI Regional and Global Managers with Discussants from the Asian Development Bank and Intrepid Group.
• Circular Economy and Tourism . This webinar discusses how new and circular business models are needed to change the way tourism operates and enable businesses and destinations to be sustainable.
• Closing the Gap: Gender in Projects and Analytics .  The purpose of this webinar is to raise awareness on integrating gender considerations into projects and provide guidelines for future project design in various sectoral areas.
• WTO Tourism Resilience: Building forward Better. High-level panelists from Sri Lanka, Costa Rica, Jordan and Kenya discuss how donors, governments and the private sector can work together most effectively to rebuild the tourism industry and improve its resilience for the future.
• Tourism Watch
• [email protected]

Launch of Blue Tourism Resource Portal

From India to the world: Unleashing the potential of India’s tourists

Boosted by rising economic prosperity  and a fast-growing economy, India is set to be an important global source market for leisure travel. India is now the fifth-largest economy, and its population has surpassed China’s to become the largest in the world, at over 1.4 billion people. 1 World Bank national accounts data, GDP (current US$) India, accessed September 2023; World population prospects 2022 , United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022. And the population is young—the median age is 27.6, more than ten years younger than that of most major economies. 2 World population prospects 2022 . What's more, consumption of goods and services, including leisure and recreation, is forecast to double by 2030. 3 “India’s impending economic boom,” Morgan Stanley, November 8, 2022. Adding a strong postpandemic travel recovery, and a growing appetite for international travel, these factors point to India’s significant potential for outbound tourism.

India is now the fifth-largest economy, and its population has surpassed China’s to become the largest in the world, at over 1.4 billion people.

Through nine charts, this article unpacks trends and opportunities in the Indian travel market. Selected country examples shed light on how destinations can enhance their value propositions to attract and delight Indian travelers.

Indian globetrotters set to soar

Racing ahead: indian wanderlust is taking off, top picks: united arab emirates reigns, new gems discovered, regional flavors; global explorers.

Indian travelers are not a homogenous group; destination preferences vary across regions. For example, travelers from North India constitute a large share of travel to the United States and Canada, while two-thirds of travelers from Kerala prefer destinations in the Middle East. 1 India tourism statistics 2020 , Ministry of Tourism, Government of India, January 2021; MarketIS. Purpose of travel, distribution of the diaspora, and cultural linkages play a role in destination choice.

Destination matchmaking: Five ways to build value

Destinations looking to harness the full potential of the growing Indian market could consider tailoring their value propositions in alignment with one or more of the five key decision points that influence where travelers choose to go. Destinations might ask the following questions to determine which factors align with what Indian travelers look for when planning a trip.

• Research. How attractive and popular is the destination with Indian tourists?
• Accessibility. Is it easy to obtain a travel visa?
• Connectivity. Are there convenient flights that connect India to the destination?
• Booking. Is the destination affordable for Indian travelers, and is there an adequate supply of hotels in the appropriate price range?
• Travel experience. What is the on-the-ground experience like for Indian tourists in terms of weather, attractions, and whether or not the local population is English speaking?

There’s something for everyone in Thailand

Azerbaijan’s visa policy wows indian travelers, vietnam takes off: direct flights skyrocket arrivals.

In 2019, Kolkata was the only city in India with direct connectivity to Vietnam, and three other Indian cities offered sporadic flights. To stand out from Southeast Asia neighbors and gain popularity with Indian travelers, Vietnam improved direct connectivity from India by increasing flight frequency and adding new routes. Indian arrivals are now at an all-time high. 1 Data from Google trends and Diio Mi.

The luxury of Dubai is within reach

In 2022, India was the largest source market for leisure travelers to Dubai. 1 “1.24 million Indian tourists visit Dubai in first 9 months of 2022,” Business Standard , December 10, 2022. The city is known for its luxury offerings and, perhaps surprisingly, also offers a wide range of accommodations, such as 3-star options. And flights from India are affordable when compared with flights of similar distances. Taken together, these factors make the luxury of Dubai accessible to Indian travelers. 2 MarketIS.

Bollywood magic in Switzerland

While only 9 percent of Indian travelers focus on long-haul destinations in Western Europe, Switzerland has been an Indian top-20 destination for over a decade. Switzerland may be popular, as it feels familiar to Indian travelers: many Bollywood hits feature Swiss attractions, there are plenty of Indian restaurants and cultural festivals, and English is widely spoken. 1 “Switzerland and romantic songs of Indian movies,” Solo Backpacker, September 20, 2019; India-Switzerland relations , Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, February, 2020; Festival of India in Switzerland and Liechtenstein – Events , Ministry of Culture, Government of India, 2018; Swiss hospitality for Indian guests , a joint report from HotellerieSuisse, Berne and Switzerland Tourism, November, 2019.

Namaste, India!

India is a high-potential, growing source market for leisure travel. Destinations looking to attract Indian leisure travelers could consider targeted marketing, an expanded range of affordable options, and customized on-the-ground hospitality that caters to Indian preferences. Destinations may need to take steps now to build a strong value proposition and distinguish themselves as a preferred location. To do so, they could take action in the following areas:

Destinations looking to attract Indian leisure travelers could consider targeted marketing, an expanded range of affordable options, and customized on-the-ground hospitality.

• Connect. Make travel seamless, for instance, by simplifying visa application processes and providing direct connectivity.
• Entice. Offer affordable packages with a range of choices that appeal to specific groups, such as families, couples, or solo travelers.
• Welcome. Make the experience traveler-friendly, for example, by providing appropriate food and beverage options like vegetarian and Indian cuisine.
• Attract . Design targeted campaigns to showcase experiences that Indian travelers want, and use appropriate channels to get the word out, for example leveraging over-the-air partnerships and social media.
• Unlock. Include the MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions) and business tourism segments in marketing efforts to boost interest in leisure travel.

Divya Aggarwal is an associate partner in McKinsey’s Gurugram office, Margaux Constantin is a partner in the Dubai office, and Kanika Kalra is a partner in the Mumbai office, where Neelesh Mundra is a senior partner.

The authors wish to thank Ashu Airan, Steffen Köpke, Richa Kothari, Karthik Krishnan, Kargil Mishra, and Jean Petersen for their contributions to this article.

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"People want to travel": 4 sector leaders say that tourism will change and grow

The global travel and tourism industry's post-pandemic recovery is gaining pace as the world’s pent-up desire for travel rekindles. Image:  Unsplash/Anete Lūsiņa

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Shinya katanozaka, gilda perez-alvarado, stephen kaufer.

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• In 2020 alone, the travel and tourism industry lost $4.5 trillion in GDP and 62 million jobs - the road to recovery remains long.
• The World Economic Forum’s latest Travel & Tourism Development Index gives expert insights on how the sector will recover and grow.
• We asked four business leaders in the sector to reflect on the state of its recovery, lessons learned from the pandemic, and the conditions that are critical for the future success of travel and tourism businesses and destinations.

The global travel and tourism sector’s post-pandemic recovery is gaining pace as the world’s pent-up desire for travel rekindles. The difference in international tourist arrivals in January 2021 and a similar period in January 2022 was as much as the growth in all of 2021. However, with $4.5 trillion in GDP and 62 million jobs lost in 2020 alone, the road to recovery remains long.

A few factors will greatly determine how the sector performs. These include travel restrictions, vaccination rates and health security, changing market dynamics and consumer preferences, and the ability of businesses and destinations to adapt. At the same time, the sector will need to prepare for future shocks.

The TTDI benchmarks and measures “the set of factors and policies that enable the sustainable and resilient development of the T&T sector, which in turn contributes to the development of a country”. The TTDI is a direct evolution of the long-running Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), with the change reflecting the index’s increased coverage of T&T development concepts, including sustainability and resilience impact on T&T growth and is designed to highlight the sector’s role in broader economic and social development as well as the need for T&T stakeholder collaboration to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, bolster the recovery and deal with future challenges and risks. Some of the most notable framework and methodology differences between the TTCI and TTDI include the additions of new pillars, including Non-Leisure Resources, Socioeconomic Resilience and Conditions, and T&T Demand Pressure and Impact. Please see the Technical notes and methodology. section to learn more about the index and the differences between the TTCI and TTDI.

The World Economic Forum's latest Travel & Tourism Development Index highlights many of these aspects, including the opportunity and need to rebuild the travel and tourism sector for the better by making it more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient. This will unleash its potential to drive future economic and social progress.

Within this context, we asked four business leaders in the sector to reflect on the state of its recovery, lessons learned from the pandemic, and the conditions that are critical for the future success of travel and tourism businesses and destinations.

Have you read?

Are you a 'bleisure' traveller, what is a ‘vaccine passport’ and will you need one the next time you travel, a travel boom is looming. but is the industry ready, how to follow davos 2022, “the way we live and work has changed because of the pandemic and the way we travel has changed as well”.

Tony Capuano, CEO, Marriott International

Despite the challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the future looks bright for travel and tourism. Across the globe, people are already getting back on the road. Demand for travel is incredibly resilient and as vaccination rates have risen and restrictions eased, travel has rebounded quickly, often led by leisure.

The way many of us live and work has changed because of the pandemic and the way we travel has changed as well. New categories of travel have emerged. The rise of “bleisure” travel is one example – combining elements of business and leisure travel into a single trip. Newly flexible work arrangements, including the opportunity for many knowledge workers to work remotely, have created opportunities for extended travel, not limited by a Monday to Friday “9 to 5” workweek in the office.

To capitalize on this renewed and growing demand for new travel experiences, industry must join governments and policymakers to ensure that the right conditions are in place to welcome travellers as they prepare to get back on the road again, particularly those who cross international borders. Thus far, much of the recovery has been led by domestic and leisure travel. The incremental recovery of business and international travel, however, will be significant for the broader industry and the millions who make their livelihoods through travel and tourism.

Looking ahead to future challenges to the sector, be they public health conditions, international crises, or climate impacts, global coordination will be the essential component in tackling difficult circumstances head-on. International agreement on common – or at least compatible – standards and decision-making frameworks around global travel is key. Leveraging existing organizations and processes to achieve consensus as challenges emerge will help reduce risk and improve collaboration while keeping borders open.

“The travel and tourism sector will not be able to survive unless it adapts to the virtual market and sustainability conscience travellers”

Shinya Katanozaka, Representative Director, Chairman, ANA Holdings Inc.

At a time when people’s movements are still being restricted by the pandemic, there is a strong, renewed sense that people want to travel and that they want to go places for business and leisure.

In that respect, the biggest change has been in the very concept of “travel.”

A prime example is the rapid expansion of the market for “virtual travel.” This trend has been accelerated not only by advances in digital technologies, but also by the protracted pandemic. The travel and tourism sector will not be able to survive unless it adapts to this new market.

However, this is not as simple as a shift from “real” to “virtual.” Virtual experiences will flow back into a rediscovery of the value of real experiences. And beyond that, to a hunger for real experiences with clearer and more diverse purposes. The hope is that this meeting of virtual and actual will bring balance and synergy the industry.

The pandemic has also seen the emergence of the “sustainability-conscious” traveller, which means that the aviation industry and others are now facing the challenge of adding decarbonization to their value proposition. This trend will force a re-examination of what travel itself should look like and how sustainable practices can be incorporated and communicated. Addressing this challenge will also require stronger collaboration across the entire industry. We believe that this will play an important role in the industry’s revitalization as it recovers from the pandemic.

How is the World Economic Forum promoting sustainable and inclusive mobility systems?

The World Economic Forum’s Platform for Shaping the Future of Mobility works across four industries: aerospace and drones; automotive and new mobility; aviation travel and tourism; and supply chain and transport. It aims to ensure that the future of mobility is safe, clean, and inclusive.

• Through the Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition , more than 100 companies are working together to power global aviation with 10% sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.
• In collaboration with UNICEF, the Forum developed a charter with leading shipping, airlines and logistics to support COVAX in delivering more than 1 billion COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable communities worldwide.
• The Road Freight Zero Project and P4G-Getting to Zero Coalition have led to outcomes demonstrating the rationale, costs and opportunities for accelerating the transition to zero emission freight.
• The Medicine from the Sky initiative is using drones to deliver vaccines and medicine to remote areas in India, completing over 300 successful trials.
• The Forum’s Target True Zero initiative is working to accelerate the deployment and scaling of zero emission aviation, leveraging electric and hydrogen flight technologies.
• In collaboration with the City of Los Angeles, Federal Aviation Administration, and NASA, the Forum developed the Principles of the Urban Sky to help adopt Urban Air Mobility in cities worldwide.
• The Forum led the development of the Space Sustainability Rating to incentivize and promote a more safe and sustainable approach to space mission management and debris mitigation in orbit.
• The Circular Cars Initiative is informing the automotive circularity policy agenda, following the endorsement from European Commission and Zero Emission Vehicle Transition Council countries, and is now invited to support China’s policy roadmap.
• The Moving India network is working with policymakers to advance electric vehicle manufacturing policies, ignite adoption of zero emission road freight vehicles, and finance the transition.
• The Urban Mobility Scorecards initiative – led by the Forum’s Global New Mobility Coalition – is bringing together mobility operators and cities to benchmark the transition to sustainable urban mobility systems.

Contact us for more information on how to get involved.

“The tourism industry must advocate for better protection of small businesses”

Gilda Perez-Alvarado, Global CEO, JLL Hotels & Hospitality

In the next few years, I think sustainability practices will become more prevalent as travellers become both more aware and interested in what countries, destinations and regions are doing in the sustainability space. Both core environmental pieces, such as water and air, and a general approach to sustainability are going to be important.

Additionally, I think conservation becomes more important in terms of how destinations and countries explain what they are doing, as the importance of climate change and natural resources are going to be critical and become top of mind for travellers.

The second part to this is we may see more interest in outdoor events going forward because it creates that sort of natural social distancing, if you will, or that natural safety piece. Doing outdoor activities such as outdoor dining, hiking and festivals may be a more appealing alternative to overcrowded events and spaces.

A lot of lessons were learned over the last few years, but one of the biggest ones was the importance of small business. As an industry, we must protect small business better. We need to have programmes outlined that successfully help small businesses get through challenging times.

Unfortunately, during the pandemic, many small businesses shut down and may never return. Small businesses are important to the travel and tourism sector because they bring uniqueness to destinations. People don’t travel to visit the same places they could visit at home; they prefer unique experiences that are only offered by specific businesses. If you were to remove all the small businesses from a destination, it would be a very different experience.

“Data shows that the majority of travellers want to explore destinations in a more immersive and experiential way”

Steve Kaufer, Co-Founder & CEO, Tripadvisor

We’re on the verge of a travel renaissance. The pandemic might have interrupted the global travel experience, but people are slowly coming out of the bubble. Businesses need to acknowledge the continued desire to feel safe when travelling. A Tripadvisor survey revealed that three-quarters (76%) of travellers will still make destination choices based on low COVID-19 infection rates.

As such, efforts to showcase how businesses care for travellers - be it by deep cleaning their properties or making items like hand sanitizer readily available - need to be ingrained within tourism operations moving forward.

But travel will also evolve in other ways, and as an industry, we need to be prepared to think digitally, and reimagine our use of physical space.

Hotels will become dynamic meeting places for teams to bond in our new hybrid work style. Lodgings near major corporate headquarters will benefit from an influx of bookings from employees convening for longer periods. They will also make way for the “bleisure” traveller who mixes business trips with leisure. Hotels in unique locales will become feasible workspaces. Employers should prepare for their workers to tag on a few extra days to get some rest and relaxation after on-location company gatherings.

Beyond the pandemic, travellers will also want to explore the world differently, see new places and do new things. Our data reveals that the majority want to explore destinations in a more immersive and experiential way, and to feel more connected to the history and culture. While seeing the top of the Empire State building has been a typical excursion for tourists in New York city, visitors will become more drawn to intimate activities like taking a cooking class in Brooklyn with a family of pizza makers who go back generations. This will undoubtedly be a significant area of growth in the travel and tourism industry.

Governments would be smart to plan as well, and to consider an international playbook that helps prepare us for the next public health crisis, inclusive of universal vaccine passports and policies that get us through borders faster.

Understanding these key trends - the ongoing need to feel safe and the growing desire to travel differently - and planning for the next crisis will be essential for governments, destinations, and tourism businesses to succeed in the efforts to keep the world travelling.

UN Tourism | Bringing the world closer

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Tourism’s Importance for Growth Highlighted in World Economic Outlook Report

• All Regions
• 10 Nov 2023

Tourism has again been identified as a key driver of economic recovery and growth in a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). With UNWTO data pointing to a return to 95% of pre-pandemic tourist numbers by the end of the year in the best case scenario, the IMF report outlines the positive impact the sector’s rapid recovery will have on certain economies worldwide.

According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Report , the global economy will grow an estimated 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. While this is higher than previous forecasts, it is nevertheless below the 3.5% rate of growth recorded in 2022, pointing to the continued impacts of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and from the cost-of-living crisis.

Tourism key sector for growth

The WEO report analyses economic growth in every global region, connecting performance with key sectors, including tourism. Notably, those economies with "large travel and tourism sectors" show strong economic resilience and robust levels of economic activity. More specifically, countries where tourism represents a high percentage of GDP   have recorded faster recovery from the impacts of the pandemic in comparison to economies where tourism is not a significant sector.

As the report Foreword notes: "Strong demand for services has supported service-oriented economies—including important tourism destinations such as France and Spain".

Looking Ahead

The latest outlook from the IMF comes on the back of UNWTO's most recent analysis of the prospects for tourism, at the global and regional levels. Pending the release of the November 2023 World Tourism Barometer , international tourism is on track to reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Prospects for September-December 2023 point to continued recovery, driven by the still pent-up demand and increased air connectivity particularly in Asia and the Pacific where recovery is still subdued.

Related links

• Download the News Release on PDF
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
• IMF World Economic Outlook

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Tourism Potential Index (TPI) – An Assessment of 60 Major Developed and Emerging Countries in the Global Tourism Market, 2023

All the vital news, analysis, and commentary curated by our industry experts.

Published: September 12, 2023 Report Code: GDTT-IR23-07-ST

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• Report Overview

Table of Contents

Tourism potential index (tpi) report overview.

GlobalData’s Tourism Potential Index is a quantitative measure of the appeal of tourism in a location. It is determined by considering several characteristics such as tourism activity, macroeconomics, infrastructure and development, attractiveness, and risk associated with a destination.

Tourism Potential Index

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The Tourism Potential Index (TPI) developed by GlobalData offers a comprehensive assessment of the growth prospects in the tourism industries of 60 prominent developed and emerging markets worldwide. This report explores the pillars and indicators used to determine the total potential index in detail.

Pillar 1 – Tourism Activity

The US ranks the highest with full marks in terms of “Market Size-Tourism Demand and Flows”, “Market Size-Tourism Spending Patterns”, “Tourism Construction Projects, and “Foreign Direct Investment” pillars. This makes it a competitive destination market. Furthermore, it is the biggest economic market in the world and a melting pot of different ethnicities and cultures. While Indonesia ranks third in the “Tourism Activity” pillar, India is ranked somewhere in the middle of the overall score. Indonesia is famous among some of the countries in APAC as a budget-friendly destination and India’s cultural diversity, historical heritage, and lively festivals continue to be significant draws for tourists.

Buy the Full Report to Know More about the Pillars of Tourism Potential Index

Pillar 2 - Macroeconomics

The Philippines ranks highest in the macroeconomics pillar. In terms of tourism employment, tourism contribution to GDP, and capital investment in travel and tourism, the Philippines performs well due to its abundant natural and cultural resources, low cost of living, safe and friendly population, improved infrastructure, and strong government backing. Thailand boasts the world’s highest tourism GDP contribution due to its abundant natural and cultural riches, affordability, safe and friendly inhabitants, improved infrastructure, and strong government support. Hence, it ranks fifth in the macroeconomics pillar.

Pillar 3 – Risk

The risk index has six sub-pillars which are macroeconomic risks, political environment, legal environment, demographic & social structure, technology & infrastructure, and environment. Since Denmark, Singapore, and Switzerland excel in all six areas, they register a ‘Very Low Risk’ rating. These countries are politically stable with developed, diverse economies and share a very high standard of living as a key characteristic. This low-risk, high-safety image can be marketed as a positive to tourists, who cite safety as a major concern and influential purchasing factor.

Pillar 4 – Infrastructure and Development

The UK exhibits a superior position in terms of tourism infrastructure and growth owing to its abundant and multifaceted historical and cultural heritage, various landscapes, well-established transit networks, secure and hospitable atmosphere, robust tourism sector, and advancements in technology. Additionally, Singapore’s outstanding transit connections, secure and clean environment, variety of attractions, and hospitable and inviting people help it rank fourth in terms of tourism infrastructure and development. The well-established transportation system in the country makes getting about the city-state simple.

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Article contents

The role of tourism in sustainable development.

• Robert B. Richardson Robert B. Richardson Community Sustainability, Michigan State University
• https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.387
• Published online: 25 March 2021

Sustainable development is the foundational principle for enhancing human and economic development while maintaining the functional integrity of ecological and social systems that support regional economies. Tourism has played a critical role in sustainable development in many countries and regions around the world. In developing countries, tourism development has been used as an important strategy for increasing economic growth, alleviating poverty, creating jobs, and improving food security. Many developing countries are in regions that are characterized by high levels of biological diversity, natural resources, and cultural heritage sites that attract international tourists whose local purchases generate income and support employment and economic development. Tourism has been associated with the principles of sustainable development because of its potential to support environmental protection and livelihoods. However, the relationship between tourism and the environment is multifaceted, as some types of tourism have been associated with negative environmental impacts, many of which are borne by host communities.

The concept of sustainable tourism development emerged in contrast to mass tourism, which involves the participation of large numbers of people, often in structured or packaged tours. Mass tourism has been associated with economic leakage and dependence, along with negative environmental and social impacts. Sustainable tourism development has been promoted in various ways as a framing concept in contrast to these economic, environmental, and social impacts. Some literature has acknowledged a vagueness of the concept of sustainable tourism, which has been used to advocate for fundamentally different strategies for tourism development that may exacerbate existing conflicts between conservation and development paradigms. Tourism has played an important role in sustainable development in some countries through the development of alternative tourism models, including ecotourism, community-based tourism, pro-poor tourism, slow tourism, green tourism, and heritage tourism, among others that aim to enhance livelihoods, increase local economic growth, and provide for environmental protection. Although these models have been given significant attention among researchers, the extent of their implementation in tourism planning initiatives has been limited, superficial, or incomplete in many contexts.

The sustainability of tourism as a global system is disputed among scholars. Tourism is dependent on travel, and nearly all forms of transportation require the use of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels for energy. The burning of fossil fuels for transportation generates emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change, which is fundamentally unsustainable. Tourism is also vulnerable to both localized and global shocks. Studies of the vulnerability of tourism to localized shocks include the impacts of natural disasters, disease outbreaks, and civil unrest. Studies of the vulnerability of tourism to global shocks include the impacts of climate change, economic crisis, global public health pandemics, oil price shocks, and acts of terrorism. It is clear that tourism has contributed significantly to economic development globally, but its role in sustainable development is uncertain, debatable, and potentially contradictory.

• conservation
• economic development
• environmental impacts
• sustainable development
• sustainable tourism
• tourism development

Introduction

Sustainable development is the guiding principle for advancing human and economic development while maintaining the integrity of ecosystems and social systems on which the economy depends. It is also the foundation of the leading global framework for international cooperation—the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (United Nations, 2015 ). The concept of sustainable development is often associated with the publication of Our Common Future (World Commission on Environment and Development [WCED], 1987 , p. 29), which defined it as “paths of human progress that meet the needs and aspirations of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.” Concerns about the environmental implications of economic development in lower income countries had been central to debates about development studies since the 1970s (Adams, 2009 ). The principles of sustainable development have come to dominate the development discourse, and the concept has become the primary development paradigm since the 1990s.

Tourism has played an increasingly important role in sustainable development since the 1990s, both globally and in particular countries and regions. For decades, tourism has been promoted as a low-impact, non-extractive option for economic development, particularly for developing countries (Gössling, 2000 ). Many developing countries have managed to increase their participation in the global economy through development of international tourism. Tourism development is increasingly viewed as an important tool in increasing economic growth, alleviating poverty, and improving food security. Tourism enables communities that are poor in material wealth, but rich in history and cultural heritage, to leverage their unique assets for economic development (Honey & Gilpin, 2009 ). More importantly, tourism offers an alternative to large-scale development projects, such as construction of dams, and to extractive industries such as mining and forestry, all of which contribute to emissions of pollutants and threaten biodiversity and the cultural values of Indigenous Peoples.

Environmental quality in destination areas is inextricably linked with tourism, as visiting natural areas and sightseeing are often the primary purpose of many leisure travels. Some forms of tourism, such as ecotourism, can contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and the protection of ecosystem functions in destination areas (Fennell, 2020 ; Gössling, 1999 ). Butler ( 1991 ) suggests that there is a kind of mutual dependence between tourism and the environment that should generate mutual benefits. Many developing countries are in regions that are characterized by high levels of species diversity, natural resources, and protected areas. Such ideas imply that tourism may be well aligned with the tenets of sustainable development.

However, the relationship between tourism and the environment is complex, as some forms of tourism have been associated with negative environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater use, land use, and food consumption (Butler, 1991 ; Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ; Hunter & Green, 1995 ; Vitousek et al., 1997 ). Assessments of the sustainability of tourism have highlighted several themes, including (a) parks, biodiversity, and conservation; (b) pollution and climate change; (c) prosperity, economic growth, and poverty alleviation; (d) peace, security, and safety; and (e) population stabilization and reduction (Buckley, 2012 ). From a global perspective, tourism contributes to (a) changes in land cover and land use; (b) energy use, (c) biotic exchange and extinction of wild species; (d) exchange and dispersion of diseases; and (e) changes in the perception and understanding of the environment (Gössling, 2002 ).

Research on tourism and the environment spans a wide range of social and natural science disciplines, and key contributions have been disseminated across many interdisciplinary fields, including biodiversity conservation, climate science, economics, and environmental science, among others (Buckley, 2011 ; Butler, 1991 ; Gössling, 2002 ; Lenzen et al., 2018 ). Given the global significance of the tourism sector and its environmental impacts, the role of tourism in sustainable development is an important topic of research in environmental science generally and in environmental economics and management specifically. Reviews of tourism research have highlighted future research priorities for sustainable development, including the role of tourism in the designation and expansion of protected areas; improvement in environmental accounting techniques that quantify environmental impacts; and the effects of individual perceptions of responsibility in addressing climate change (Buckley, 2012 ).

Tourism is one of the world’s largest industries, and it has linkages with many of the prime sectors of the global economy (Fennell, 2020 ). As a global economic sector, tourism represents one of the largest generators of wealth, and it is an important agent of economic growth and development (Garau-Vadell et al., 2018 ). Tourism is a critical industry in many local and national economies, and it represents a large and growing share of world trade (Hunter, 1995 ). Global tourism has had an average annual increase of 6.6% over the past half century, with international tourist arrivals rising sharply from 25.2 million in 1950 to more than 950 million in 2010 . In 2019 , the number of international tourists reached 1.5 billion, up 4% from 2018 (Fennell, 2020 ; United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], 2020 ). European countries are host to more than half of international tourists, but since 1990 , growth in international arrivals has risen faster than the global average, in both the Middle East and the Asia and Pacific region (UNWTO, 2020 ).

The growth in global tourism has been accompanied by an expansion of travel markets and a diversification of tourism destinations. In 1950 , the top five travel destinations were all countries in Europe and the Americas, and these destinations held 71% of the global travel market (Fennell, 2020 ). By 2002 , these countries represented only 35%, which underscores the emergence of newly accessible travel destinations in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Pacific Rim, including numerous developing countries. Over the past 70 years, global tourism has grown significantly as an economic sector, and it has contributed to the economic development of dozens of nations.

Given the growth of international tourism and its emergence as one of the world’s largest export sectors, the question of its impact on economic growth for the host countries has been a topic of great interest in the tourism literature. Two hypotheses have emerged regarding the role of tourism in the economic growth process (Apergis & Payne, 2012 ). First, tourism-led growth hypothesis relies on the assumption that tourism is an engine of growth that generates spillovers and positive externalities through economic linkages that will impact the overall economy. Second, the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis emphasizes policies oriented toward well-defined and enforceable property rights, stable political institutions, and adequate investment in both physical and human capital to facilitate the development of the tourism sector. Studies have concluded with support for both the tourism-led growth hypothesis (e.g., Durbarry, 2004 ; Katircioglu, 2010 ) and the economic-led growth hypothesis (e.g., Katircioglu, 2009 ; Oh, 2005 ), whereas other studies have found support for a bidirectional causality for tourism and economic growth (e.g., Apergis & Payne, 2012 ; Lee & Chang, 2008 ).

The growth of tourism has been marked by an increase in the competition for tourist expenditures, making it difficult for destinations to maintain their share of the international tourism market (Butler, 1991 ). Tourism development is cyclical and subject to short-term cycles and overconsumption of resources. Butler ( 1980 ) developed a tourist-area cycle of evolution that depicts the number of tourists rising sharply over time through periods of exploration, involvement, and development, before eventual consolidation and stagnation. When tourism growth exceeds the carrying capacity of the area, resource degradation can lead to the decline of tourism unless specific steps are taken to promote rejuvenation (Butler, 1980 , 1991 ).

The potential of tourism development as a tool to contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and poverty reduction is derived from several unique characteristics of the tourism system (UNWTO, 2002 ). First, tourism represents an opportunity for economic diversification, particularly in marginal areas with few other export options. Tourists are attracted to remote areas with high values of cultural, wildlife, and landscape assets. The cultural and natural heritage of developing countries is frequently based on such assets, and tourism represents an opportunity for income generation through the preservation of heritage values. Tourism is the only export sector where the consumer travels to the exporting country, which provides opportunities for lower-income households to become exporters through the sale of goods and services to foreign tourists. Tourism is also labor intensive; it provides small-scale employment opportunities, which also helps to promote gender equity. Finally, there are numerous indirect benefits of tourism for people living in poverty, including increased market access for remote areas through the development of roads, infrastructure, and communication networks. Nevertheless, travel is highly income elastic and carbon intensive, which has significant implications for the sustainability of the tourism sector (Lenzen et al., 2018 ).

Concerns about environmental issues appeared in tourism research just as global awareness of the environmental impacts of human activities was expanding. The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was held in Stockholm in 1972 , the same year as the publication of The Limits to Growth (Meadows et al., 1972 ), which highlighted the concerns about the implications of exponential economic and population growth in a world of finite resources. This was the same year that the famous Blue Marble photograph of Earth was taken by the crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft (Höhler, 2015 , p. 10), and the image captured the planet cloaked in the darkness of space and became a symbol of Earth’s fragility and vulnerability. As noted by Buckley ( 2012 ), tourism researchers turned their attention to social and environmental issues around the same time (Cohen, 1978 ; Farrell & McLellan, 1987 ; Turner & Ash, 1975 ; Young, 1973 ).

The notion of sustainable development is often associated with the publication of Our Common Future , the report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, also known as the Brundtland Commission (WCED, 1987 ). The report characterized sustainable development in terms of meeting “the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987 , p. 43). Four basic principles are fundamental to the concept of sustainability: (a) the idea of holistic planning and strategy making; (b) the importance of preserving essential ecological processes; (c) the need to protect both human heritage and biodiversity; and (d) the need to develop in such a way that productivity can be sustained over the long term for future generations (Bramwell & Lane, 1993 ). In addition to achieving balance between economic growth and the conservation of natural resources, there should be a balance of fairness and opportunity between the nations of the world.

Although the modern concept of sustainable development emerged with the publication of Our Common Future , sustainable development has its roots in ideas about sustainable forest management that were developed in Europe during the 17th and 18th centuries (Blewitt, 2015 ; Grober, 2007 ). Sustainable forest management is concerned with the stewardship and use of forests in a way that maintains their biodiversity, productivity, and regeneration capacity as well as their potential to fulfill society’s demands for forest products and benefits. Building on these ideas, Daly ( 1990 ) offered two operational principles of sustainable development. First, sustainable development implies that harvest rates should be no greater than rates of regeneration; this concept is known as maximum sustainable yield. Second, waste emission rates should not exceed the natural assimilative capacities of the ecosystems into which the wastes are emitted. Regenerative and assimilative capacities are characterized as natural capital, and a failure to maintain these capacities is not sustainable.

Shortly after the emergence of the concept of sustainable development in academic and policy discourse, tourism researchers began referring to the notion of sustainable tourism (May, 1991 ; Nash & Butler, 1990 ), which soon became the dominant paradigm of tourism development. The concept of sustainable tourism, as with the role of tourism in sustainable development, has been interpreted in different ways, and there is a lack of consensus concerning its meaning, objectives, and indicators (Sharpley, 2000 ). Growing interest in the subject inspired the creation of a new academic journal, Journal of Sustainable Tourism , which was launched in 1993 and has become a leading tourism journal. It is described as “an international journal that publishes research on tourism and sustainable development, including economic, social, cultural and political aspects.”

The notion of sustainable tourism development emerged in contrast to mass tourism, which is characterized by the participation of large numbers of people, often provided as structured or packaged tours. Mass tourism has risen sharply in the last half century. International arrivals alone have increased by an average annual rate of more than 25% since 1950 , and many of those trips involved mass tourism activities (Fennell, 2020 ; UNWTO, 2020 ). Some examples of mass tourism include beach resorts, cruise ship tourism, gaming casinos, golf resorts, group tours, ski resorts, theme parks, and wildlife safari tourism, among others. Little data exist regarding the volume of domestic mass tourism, but nevertheless mass tourism activities dominate the global tourism sector. Mass tourism has been shown to generate benefits to host countries, such as income and employment generation, although it has also been associated with economic leakage (where revenue generated by tourism is lost to other countries’ economies) and economic dependency (where developing countries are dependent on wealthier countries for tourists, imports, and foreign investment) (Cater, 1993 ; Conway & Timms, 2010 ; Khan, 1997 ; Peeters, 2012 ). Mass tourism has been associated with numerous negative environmental impacts and social impacts (Cater, 1993 ; Conway & Timms, 2010 ; Fennell, 2020 ; Ghimire, 2013 ; Gursoy et al., 2010 ; Liu, 2003 ; Peeters, 2012 ; Wheeller, 2007 ). Sustainable tourism development has been promoted in various ways as a framing concept in contrast to many of these economic, environmental, and social impacts.

Much of the early research on sustainable tourism focused on defining the concept, which has been the subject of vigorous debate (Bramwell & Lane, 1993 ; Garrod & Fyall, 1998 ; Hunter, 1995 ; Inskeep, 1991 ; Liu, 2003 ; Sharpley, 2000 ). Early definitions of sustainable tourism development seemed to fall in one of two categories (Sharpley, 2000 ). First, the “tourism-centric” paradigm of sustainable tourism development focuses on sustaining tourism as an economic activity (Hunter, 1995 ). Second, alternative paradigms have situated sustainable tourism in the context of wider sustainable development policies (Butler, 1991 ). One of the most comprehensive definitions of sustainable tourism echoes some of the language of the Brundtland Commission’s definition of sustainable development (WCED, 1987 ), emphasizing opportunities for the future while also integrating social and environmental concerns:

Sustainable tourism can be thought of as meeting the needs of present tourists and host regions while protecting and enhancing opportunity for the future. Sustainable tourism development is envisaged as leading to management of all resources in such a way that we can fulfill economic, social and aesthetic needs while maintaining cultural integrity, essential ecological processes, biological diversity and life support systems. (Inskeep, 1991 , p. 461)

Hunter argued that over the short and long terms, sustainable tourism development should

“meet the needs and wants of the local host community in terms of improved living standards and quality of life;

satisfy the demands of tourists and the tourism industry, and continue to attract them in order to meet the first aim; and

safeguard the environmental resource base for tourism, encompassing natural, built and cultural components, in order to achieve both of the preceding aims.” (Hunter, 1995 , p. 156)

Numerous other definitions have been documented, and the term itself has been subject to widespread critique (Buckley, 2012 ; Hunter, 1995 ; Liu, 2003 ). Nevertheless, there have been numerous calls to move beyond debate about a definition and to consider how it may best be implemented in practice (Garrod & Fyall, 1998 ; Liu, 2003 ). Cater ( 1993 ) identified three key criteria for sustainable tourism: (a) meeting the needs of the host population in terms of improved living standards both in the short and long terms; (b) satisfying the demands of a growing number of tourists; and (c) safeguarding the natural environment in order to achieve both of the preceding aims.

Some literature has acknowledged a vagueness of the concept of sustainable tourism, which has been used to advocate for fundamentally different strategies for tourism development that may exacerbate existing conflicts between conservation and development paradigms (Garrod & Fyall, 1998 ; Hunter, 1995 ; Liu, 2003 ; McKercher, 1993b ). Similar criticisms have been leveled at the concept of sustainable development, which has been described as an oxymoron with a wide range of meanings (Adams, 2009 ; Daly, 1990 ) and “defined in such a way as to be either morally repugnant or logically redundant” (Beckerman, 1994 , p. 192). Sharpley ( 2000 ) suggests that in the tourism literature, there has been “a consistent and fundamental failure to build a theoretical link between sustainable tourism and its parental paradigm,” sustainable development (p. 2). Hunter ( 1995 ) suggests that practical measures designed to operationalize sustainable tourism fail to address many of the critical issues that are central to the concept of sustainable development generally and may even actually counteract the fundamental requirements of sustainable development. He suggests that mainstream sustainable tourism development is concerned with protecting the immediate resource base that will sustain tourism development while ignoring concerns for the status of the wider tourism resource base, such as potential problems associated with air pollution, congestion, introduction of invasive species, and declining oil reserves. The dominant paradigm of sustainable tourism development has been described as introverted, tourism-centric, and in competition with other sectors for scarce resources (McKercher, 1993a ). Hunter ( 1995 , p. 156) proposes an alternative, “extraparochial” paradigm where sustainable tourism development is reconceptualized in terms of its contribution to overall sustainable development. Such a paradigm would reconsider the scope, scale, and sectoral context of tourism-related resource utilization issues.

“Sustainability,” “sustainable tourism,” and “sustainable development” are all well-established terms that have often been used loosely and interchangeably in the tourism literature (Liu, 2003 ). Nevertheless, the subject of sustainable tourism has been given considerable attention and has been the focus of numerous academic compilations and textbooks (Coccossis & Nijkamp, 1995 ; Hall & Lew, 1998 ; Stabler, 1997 ; Swarbrooke, 1999 ), and it calls for new approaches to sustainable tourism development (Bramwell & Lane, 1993 ; Garrod & Fyall, 1998 ; Hunter, 1995 ; Sharpley, 2000 ). The notion of sustainable tourism has been reconceptualized in the literature by several authors who provided alternative frameworks for tourism development (Buckley, 2012 ; Gössling, 2002 ; Hunter, 1995 ; Liu, 2003 ; McKercher, 1993b ; Sharpley, 2000 ).

Early research in sustainable tourism focused on the local environmental impacts of tourism, including energy use, water use, food consumption, and change in land use (Buckley, 2012 ; Butler, 1991 ; Gössling, 2002 ; Hunter & Green, 1995 ). Subsequent research has emphasized the global environmental impacts of tourism, such as greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity losses (Gössling, 2002 ; Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ; Lenzen et al., 2018 ). Additional research has emphasized the impacts of environmental change on tourism itself, including the impacts of climate change on tourist behavior (Gössling et al., 2012 ; Richardson & Loomis, 2004 ; Scott et al., 2012 ; Viner, 2006 ). Countries that are dependent on tourism for economic growth may be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Richardson & Witkoswki, 2010 ).

The early focus on environmental issues in sustainable tourism has been broadened to include economic, social, and cultural issues as well as questions of power and equity in society (Bramwell & Lane, 1993 ; Sharpley, 2014 ), and some of these frameworks have integrated notions of social equity, prosperity, and cultural heritage values. Sustainable tourism is dependent on critical long-term considerations of the impacts; notions of equity; an appreciation of the importance of linkages (i.e., economic, social, and environmental); and the facilitation of cooperation and collaboration between different stakeholders (Elliott & Neirotti, 2008 ).

McKercher ( 1993b ) notes that tourism resources are typically part of the public domain or are intrinsically linked to the social fabric of the host community. As a result, many commonplace tourist activities such as sightseeing may be perceived as invasive by members of the host community. Many social impacts of tourism can be linked to the overuse of the resource base, increases in traffic congestion, rising land prices, urban sprawl, and changes in the social structure of host communities. Given the importance of tourist–resident interaction, sustainable tourism development depends in part on the support of the host community (Garau-Vadell et al., 2018 ).

Tourism planning involves the dual objectives of optimizing the well-being of local residents in host communities and minimizing the costs of tourism development (Sharpley, 2014 ). Tourism researchers have paid significant attention to examining the social impacts of tourism in general and to understanding host communities’ perceptions of tourism in particular. Studies of the social impacts of tourism development have examined the perceptions of local residents and the effects of tourism on social cohesion, traditional lifestyles, and the erosion of cultural heritage, particularly among Indigenous Peoples (Butler & Hinch, 2007 ; Deery et al., 2012 ; Mathieson & Wall, 1982 ; Sharpley, 2014 ; Whitford & Ruhanen, 2016 ).

Alternative Tourism and Sustainable Development

A wide body of published research is related to the role of tourism in sustainable development, and much of the literature involves case studies of particular types of tourism. Many such studies contrast types of alternative tourism with those of mass tourism, which has received sustained criticism for decades and is widely considered to be unsustainable (Cater, 1993 ; Conway & Timms, 2010 ; Fennell, 2020 ; Gursoy et al., 2010 ; Liu, 2003 ; Peeters, 2012 ; Zapata et al., 2011 ). Still, some tourism researchers have taken issue with the conclusion that mass tourism is inherently unsustainable (Sharpley, 2000 ; Weaver, 2007 ), and some have argued for developing pathways to “sustainable mass tourism” as “the desired and impending outcome for most destinations” (Weaver, 2012 , p. 1030). In integrating an ethical component to mass tourism development, Weaver ( 2014 , p. 131) suggests that the desirable outcome is “enlightened mass tourism.” Such suggestions have been contested in the literature and criticized for dubious assumptions about emergent norms of sustainability and support for growth, which are widely seen as contradictory (Peeters, 2012 ; Wheeller, 2007 ).

Models of responsible or alternative tourism development include ecotourism, community-based tourism, pro-poor tourism, slow tourism, green tourism, and heritage tourism, among others. Most models of alternative tourism development emphasize themes that aim to counteract the perceived negative impacts of conventional or mass tourism. As such, the objectives of these models of tourism development tend to focus on minimizing environmental impacts, supporting biodiversity conservation, empowering local communities, alleviating poverty, and engendering pleasant relationships between tourists and residents.

Approaches to alternative tourism development tend to overlap with themes of responsible tourism, and the two terms are frequently used interchangeably. Responsible tourism has been characterized in terms of numerous elements, including

ensuring that communities are involved in and benefit from tourism;

respecting local, natural, and cultural environments;

involving the local community in planning and decision-making;

using local resources sustainably;

behaving in ways that are sensitive to the host culture;

maintaining and encouraging natural, economic, and cultural diversity; and

assessing environmental, social, and economic impacts as a prerequisite to tourism development (Spenceley, 2012 ).

Hetzer ( 1965 ) identified four fundamental principles or perquisites for a more responsible form of tourism: (a) minimum environmental impact; (b) minimum impact on and maximum respect for host cultures; (c) maximum economic benefits to the host country; and (d) maximum leisure satisfaction to participating tourists.

The history of ecotourism is closely connected with the emergence of sustainable development, as it was born out of a concern for the conservation of biodiversity. Ecotourism is a form of tourism that aims to minimize local environmental impacts while bringing benefits to protected areas and the people living around those lands (Honey, 2008 ). Ecotourism represents a small segment of nature-based tourism, which is understood as tourism based on the natural attractions of an area, such as scenic areas and wildlife (Gössling, 1999 ). The ecotourism movement gained momentum in the 1990s, primarily in developing countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly all countries are now engaged in some form of ecotourism. In some communities, ecotourism is the primary economic activity and source of income and economic development.

The term “ecotourism” was coined by Hector Ceballos-Lascuráin and defined by him as “tourism that consists in travelling to relatively undisturbed or uncontaminated natural areas with the specific object of studying, admiring, and enjoying the scenery and its wild plants and animals” (Ceballos-Lascuráin, 1987 , p. 13). In discussing ecotourism resources, he also made reference to “any existing cultural manifestations (both past and present) found in these areas” (Ceballos-Lascuráin, 1987 , p. 14). The basic precepts of ecotourism had been discussed long before the actual use of the term. Twenty years earlier, Hetzer ( 1965 ) referred to a form of tourism “based principally upon natural and archaeological resources such as caves, fossil sites (and) archaeological sites.” Thus, both natural resources and cultural resources were integrated into ecotourism frameworks from the earliest manifestations.

Costa Rica is well known for having successfully integrated ecotourism in its overall strategy for sustainable development, and numerous case studies of ecotourism in Costa Rica appear in the literature (Chase et al., 1998 ; Fennell & Eagles, 1990 ; Gray & Campbell, 2007 ; Hearne & Salinas, 2002 ). Ecotourism in Costa Rica has been seen as having supported the economic development of the country while promoting biodiversity conservation in its extensive network of protected areas. Chase et al. ( 1998 ) estimated the demand for ecotourism in a study of differential pricing of entrance fees at national parks in Costa Rica. The authors estimated elasticities associated with the own-price, cross-price, and income variables and found that the elasticities of demand were significantly different between three different national park sites. The results reveal the heterogeneity characterizing tourist behavior and park attractions and amenities. Hearne and Salinas ( 2002 ) used choice experiments to examine the preferences of domestic and foreign tourists in Costa Rica in an ecotourism site. Both sets of tourists demonstrated a preference for improved infrastructure, more information, and lower entrance fees. Foreign tourists demonstrated relatively stronger preferences for the inclusion of restrictions in the access to some trails.

Ecotourism has also been studied extensively in Kenya (Southgate, 2006 ), Malaysia (Lian Chan & Baum, 2007 ), Nepal (Baral et al., 2008 ), Peru (Stronza, 2007 ), and Taiwan (Lai & Nepal, 2006 ), among many other countries. Numerous case studies have demonstrated the potential for ecotourism to contribute to sustainable development by providing support for biodiversity conservation, local livelihoods, and regional development.

Community-Based Tourism

Community-based tourism (CBT) is a model of tourism development that emphasizes the development of local communities and allows for local residents to have substantial control over its development and management, and a major proportion of the benefits remain within the community. CBT emerged during the 1970s as a response to the negative impacts of the international mass tourism development model (Cater, 1993 ; Hall & Lew, 2009 ; Turner & Ash, 1975 ; Zapata et al., 2011 ).

Community-based tourism has been examined for its potential to contribute to poverty reduction. In a study of the viability of the CBT model to support socioeconomic development and poverty alleviation in Nicaragua, tourism was perceived by participants in the study to have an impact on employment creation in their communities (Zapata et al., 2011 ). Tourism was seen to have had positive impacts on strengthening local knowledge and skills, particularly on the integration of women to new roles in the labor market. One of the main perceived gains regarding the environment was the process of raising awareness regarding the conservation of natural resources. The small scale of CBT operations and low capacity to accommodate visitors was seen as a limitation of the model.

Spenceley ( 2012 ) compiled case studies of community-based tourism in countries in southern Africa, including Botswana, Madagascar, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In this volume, authors characterize community-based and nature-based tourism development projects in the region and demonstrate how community participation in planning and decision-making has generated benefits for local residents and supported conservation initiatives. They contend that responsible tourism practices are of particular importance in the region because of the rich biological diversity, abundant charismatic wildlife, and the critical need for local economic development and livelihood strategies.

In Kenya, CBT enterprises were not perceived to have made a significant impact on poverty reduction at an individual household level, in part because the model relied heavily on donor funding, reinforcing dependency and poverty (Manyara & Jones, 2007 ). The study identified several critical success factors for CBT enterprises, namely, awareness and sensitization, community empowerment, effective leadership, and community capacity building, which can inform appropriate tourism policy formulation in Kenya. The impacts of CBT on economic development and poverty reduction would be greatly enhanced if tourism initiatives were able to emphasize independence, address local community priorities, enhance community empowerment and transparency, discourage elitism, promote effective community leadership, and develop community capacity to operate their own enterprises more efficiently.

Pro-Poor Tourism

Pro-poor tourism is a model of tourism development that brings net benefits to people living in poverty (Ashley et al., 2001 ; Harrison, 2008 ). Although its theoretical foundations and development objectives overlap to some degree with those of community-based tourism and other models of AT, the key distinctive feature of pro-poor tourism is that it places poor people and poverty at the top of the agenda. By focusing on a very simple and incontrovertibly moral idea, namely, the net benefits of tourism to impoverished people, the concept has broad appeal to donors and international aid agencies. Harnessing the economic benefits of tourism for pro-poor growth means capitalizing on the advantages while reducing negative impacts to people living in poverty (Ashley et al., 2001 ). Pro-poor approaches to tourism development include increasing access of impoverished people to economic benefits; addressing negative social and environmental impacts associated with tourism; and focusing on policies, processes, and partnerships that seek to remove barriers to participation by people living in poverty. At the local level, pro-poor tourism can play a very significant role in livelihood security and poverty reduction (Ashley & Roe, 2002 ).

Rogerson ( 2011 ) argues that the growth of pro-poor tourism initiatives in South Africa suggests that the country has become a laboratory for the testing and evolution of new approaches toward sustainable development planning that potentially will have relevance for other countries in the developing world. A study of pro-poor tourism development initiatives in Laos identified a number of favorable conditions for pro-poor tourism development, including the fact that local people are open to tourism and motivated to participate (Suntikul et al., 2009 ). The authors also noted a lack of development in the linkages that could optimize the fulfilment of the pro-poor agenda, such as training or facilitation of local people’s participation in pro-poor tourism development at the grassroots level.

Critics of the model have argued that pro-poor tourism is based on an acceptance of the status quo of existing capitalism, that it is morally indiscriminate and theoretically imprecise, and that its practitioners are academically and commercially marginal (Harrison, 2008 ). As Chok et al. ( 2007 ) indicate, the focus “on poor people in the South reflects a strong anthropocentric view . . . and . . . environmental benefits are secondary to poor peoples’” benefits (p. 153).

Harrison ( 2008 ) argues that pro-poor tourism is not a distinctive approach to tourism as a development tool and that it may be easier to discuss what pro-poor tourism is not than what it is. He concludes that it is neither anticapitalist nor inconsistent with mainstream tourism on which it relies; it is neither a theory nor a model and is not a niche form of tourism. Further, he argues that it has no distinctive method and is not only about people living in poverty.

Slow Tourism

The concept of slow tourism has emerged as a model of sustainable tourism development, and as such, it lacks an exact definition. The concept of slow tourism traces its origin back to some institutionalized social movements such as “slow food” and “slow cities” that began in Italy in the 1990s and spread rapidly around the world (Fullagar et al., 2012 ; Oh et al., 2016 , p. 205). Advocates of slow tourism tend to emphasize slowness in terms of speed, mobility, and modes of transportation that generate less environmental pollution. They propose niche marketing for alternative forms of tourism that focus on quality upgrading rather than merely increasing the quantity of visitors via the established mass-tourism infrastructure (Conway & Timms, 2010 ).

In the context of the Caribbean region, slow tourism has been promoted as more culturally sensitive and authentic, as compared to the dominant mass tourism development model that is based on all-inclusive beach resorts dependent on foreign investment (Conway & Timms, 2010 ). Recognizing its value as an alternative marketing strategy, Conway and Timms ( 2010 ) make the case for rebranding alternative tourism in the Caribbean as a means of revitalizing the sector for the changing demands of tourists in the 21st century . They suggest that slow tourism is the antithesis of mass tourism, which “relies on increasing the quantity of tourists who move through the system with little regard to either the quality of the tourists’ experience or the benefits that accrue to the localities the tourist visits” (Conway & Timms, 2010 , p. 332). The authors draw on cases from Barbados, the Grenadines, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago to characterize models of slow tourism development in remote fishing villages and communities near nature preserves and sea turtle nesting sites.

Although there is a growing interest in the concept of slow tourism in the literature, there seems to be little agreement about the exact nature of slow tourism and whether it is a niche form of special interest tourism or whether it represents a more fundamental potential shift across the industry. Conway and Timms ( 2010 ) focus on the destination, advocating for slow tourism in terms of a promotional identity for an industry in need of rebranding. Caffyn ( 2012 , p. 77) discusses the implementation of slow tourism in terms of “encouraging visitors to make slower choices when planning and enjoying their holidays.” It is not clear whether slow tourism is a marketing strategy, a mindset, or a social movement, but the literature on slow tourism nearly always equates the term with sustainable tourism (Caffyn, 2012 ; Conway & Timms, 2010 ; Oh et al., 2016 ). Caffyn ( 2012 , p. 80) suggests that slow tourism could offer a “win–win,” which she describes as “a more sustainable form of tourism; keeping more of the economic benefits within the local community and destination; and delivering a more meaningful and satisfying experience.” Research on slow tourism is nascent, and thus the contribution of slow tourism to sustainable development is not well understood.

Impacts of Tourism Development

The role of tourism in sustainable development can be examined through an understanding of the economic, environmental, and social impacts of tourism. Tourism is a global phenomenon that involves travel, recreation, the consumption of food, overnight accommodations, entertainment, sightseeing, and other activities that simultaneously intersect the lives of local residents, businesses, and communities. The impacts of tourism involve benefits and costs to all groups, and some of these impacts cannot easily be measured. Nevertheless, they have been studied extensively in the literature, which provides some context for how these benefits and costs are distributed.

Economic Impacts of Tourism

The travel and tourism sector is one of the largest components of the global economy, and global tourism has increased exponentially since the end of the Second World War (UNWTO, 2020 ). The direct, indirect, and induced economic impact of global travel accounted for 8.9 trillion U.S. dollars in contribution to the global gross domestic product (GDP), or 10.3% of global GDP. The global travel and tourism sector supports approximately 330 million jobs, or 1 in 10 jobs around the world. From an economic perspective, tourism plays a significant role in sustainable development. In many developing countries, tourism has the potential to play a unique role in income generation and distribution relative to many other industries, in part because of its high multiplier effect and consumption of local goods and services. However, research on the economic impacts of tourism has shown that this potential has rarely been fully realized (Liu, 2003 ).

Numerous studies have examined the impact of tourism expenditure on GDP, income, employment, and public sector revenue. Narayan ( 2004 ) used a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of tourism growth on the economy of Fiji. Tourism is Fiji’s largest industry, with average annual growth of 10–12%; and as a middle-income country, tourism is critical to Fiji’s economic development. The findings indicate that an increase in tourism expenditures was associated with an increase in GDP, an improvement in the country’s balance of payments, and an increase in real consumption and national welfare. Evidence suggests that the benefits of tourism expansion outweigh any export effects caused by an appreciation of the exchange rate and an increase in domestic prices and wages.

Seetanah ( 2011 ) examined the potential contribution of tourism to economic growth and development using panel data of 19 island economies around the world from 1990 to 2007 and revealed that tourism development is an important factor in explaining economic performance in the selected island economies. The results have policy implications for improving economic growth by harnessing the contribution of the tourism sector. Pratt ( 2015 ) modeled the economic impact of tourism for seven small island developing states in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Indian Ocean. In most states, the transportation sector was found to have above-average linkages to other sectors of the economy. The results revealed some advantages of economies of scale for maximizing the economic contribution of tourism.

Apergis and Payne ( 2012 ) examined the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth for a panel of nine Caribbean countries. The panel of Caribbean countries includes Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago. The authors use a panel error correction model to reveal bidirectional causality between tourism and economic growth in both the short run and the long run. The presence of bidirectional causality reiterates the importance of the tourism sector in the generation of foreign exchange income and in financing the production of goods and services within these countries. Likewise, stable political institutions and adequate government policies to ensure the appropriate investment in physical and human capital will enhance economic growth. In turn, stable economic growth will provide the resources needed to develop the tourism infrastructure for the success of the countries’ tourism sector. Thus, policy makers should be cognizant of the interdependent relationship between tourism and economic growth in the design and implementation of economic policy. The mixed nature of these results suggest that the relationship between tourism and economic growth depends largely on the social and economic context as well as the role of tourism in the economy.

The economic benefits and costs of tourism are frequently distributed unevenly. An analysis of the impact of wildlife conservation policies in Zambia on household welfare found that households located near national parks earn higher levels of income from wage employment and self-employment than other rural households in the country, but they were also more likely to suffer crop losses related to wildlife conflicts (Richardson et al., 2012 ). The findings suggest that tourism development and wildlife conservation can contribute to pro-poor development, but they may be sustainable only if human–wildlife conflicts are minimized or compensated.

Environmental Impacts of Tourism

The environmental impacts of tourism are significant, ranging from local effects to contributions to global environmental change (Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ). Tourism is both dependent on water resources and a factor in global and local freshwater use. Tourists consume water for drinking, when showering and using the toilet, when participating in activities such as winter ski tourism (i.e., snowmaking), and when using swimming pools and spas. Fresh water is also needed to maintain hotel gardens and golf courses, and water use is embedded in tourism infrastructure development (e.g., accommodations, laundry, dining) and in food and fuel production. Direct water consumption in tourism is estimated to be approximately 350 liters (L) per guest night for accommodation; when indirect water use from food, energy, and transport are considered, total water use in tourism is estimated to be approximately 6,575 L per guest night, or 27,800 L per person per trip (Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ). In addition, tourism contributes to the pollution of oceans as well as lakes, rivers, and other freshwater systems (Gössling, 2002 ; Gössling et al., 2011 ).

The clearing and conversion of land is central for tourism development, and in many cases, the land used for tourism includes roads, airports, railways, accommodations, trails, pedestrian walks, shopping areas, parking areas, campgrounds, vacation homes, golf courses, marinas, ski resorts, and indirect land use for food production, disposal of solid wastes, and the treatment of wastewater (Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ). Global land use for accommodation is estimated to be approximately 42 m 2 per bed. Total global land use for tourism is estimated to be nearly 62,000 km 2 , or 11.7 m 2 per tourist; more than half of this estimate is represented by land use for traffic infrastructure.

Tourism and hospitality have direct and indirect links to nearly all aspects of food production, preparation, and consumption because of the quantities of food consumed in tourism contexts (Gössling et al., 2011 ). Food production has significant implications for sustainable development, given the growing global demand for food. The implications include land conversion, losses to biodiversity, changes in nutrient cycling, and contributions to greenhouse emissions that are associated with global climate change (Vitousek et al., 1997 ). Global food use for tourism is estimated to be approximately 39.4 megatons 1 (Mt), about 38% than the amount of food consumed at home. This equates to approximately 1,800 grams (g) of food consumed per tourist per day.

Although tourism has been promoted as a low-impact, nonextractive option for economic development, (Gössling, 2000 ), assessments reveal that such pursuits have a significant carbon footprint, as tourism is significantly more carbon intensive than other potential areas of economic development (Lenzen et al., 2018 ). Tourism is dependent on energy, and virtually all energy use in the tourism sector is derived from fossil fuels, which contribute to global greenhouse emissions that are associated with global climate change. Energy use for tourism has been estimated to be approximately 3,575 megajoules 2 (MJ) per trip, including energy for travel and accommodations (Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ). A previous estimate of global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from tourism provided values of 1.12 gigatons 3 (Gt) of CO 2 , amounting to about 3% of global CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions (Gössling & Peeters, 2015 ). However, these analyses do not cover the supply chains underpinning tourism and do not therefore represent true carbon footprints. A more complete analysis of the emissions from energy consumption necessary to sustain the tourism sector would include food and beverages, infrastructure construction and maintenance, retail, and financial services. Between 2009 and 2013 , tourism’s global carbon footprint is estimated to have increased from 3.9 to 4.5 GtCO 2 e, four times more than previously estimated, accounting for about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (Lenzen et al., 2018 ). The majority of this footprint is exerted by and within high-income countries. The rising global demand for tourism is outstripping efforts at decarbonization of tourism operations and as a result is accelerating global carbon emissions.

Social Impacts of Tourism

The social impacts of tourism have been widely studied, with an emphasis on residents’ perceptions in the host community (Sharpley, 2014 ). Case studies include research conducted in Australia (Faulkner & Tideswell, 1997 ; Gursoy et al., 2010 ; Tovar & Lockwood, 2008 ), Belize (Diedrich & Garcia-Buades, 2008 ), China (Gu & Ryan, 2008 ), Fiji (King et al., 1993 ), Greece (Haralambopoulos & Pizam, 1996 ; Tsartas, 1992 ), Hungary (Rátz, 2000 ), Thailand (Huttasin, 2008 ), Turkey (Kuvan & Akan, 2005 ), the United Kingdom (Brunt & Courtney, 1999 ; Haley et al., 2005 ), and the United States (Andereck et al., 2005 ; Milman & Pizam, 1988 ), among others. The social impacts of tourism are difficult to measure, and most published studies are mainly concerned with the social impacts on the host communities rather than the impacts on the tourists themselves.

Studies of residents’ perceptions of tourism are typically conducted using household surveys. In most cases, residents recognize the economic dependence on tourism for income, and there is substantial evidence to suggest that working in or owning a business in tourism or a related industry is associated with more positive perceptions of tourism (Andereck et al., 2007 ). The perceived nature of negative effects is complex and often conveys a dislike of crowding, traffic congestion, and higher prices for basic needs (Deery et al., 2012 ). When the number of tourists far exceeds that of the resident population, negative attitudes toward tourism may manifest (Diedrich & Garcia-Buades, 2008 ). However, residents who recognize negative impacts may not necessarily oppose tourism development (King et al., 1993 ).

In some regions, little is known about the social and cultural impacts of tourism despite its dominance as an economic sector. Tourism is a rapidly growing sector in Cuba, and it is projected to grow at rates that exceed the average projected growth rates for the Caribbean and the world overall (Salinas et al., 2018 ). Still, even though there has been rapid tourism development in Cuba, there has been little research related to the environmental and sociocultural impacts of this tourism growth (Rutty & Richardson, 2019 ).

In some international tourism contexts, studies have found that residents are generally resentful toward tourism because it fuels inequality and exacerbates racist attitudes and discrimination (Cabezas, 2004 ; Jamal & Camargo, 2014 ; Mbaiwa, 2005 ). Other studies revealed similar narratives and recorded statements of exclusion and socioeconomic stratification (Sanchez & Adams, 2008 ). Local residents often must navigate the gaps in the racialized, gendered, and sexualized structures imposed by the global tourism industry and host-country governments (Cabezas, 2004 ).

However, during times of economic crisis, residents may develop a more permissive view as their perceptions of the costs of tourism development decrease (Garau-Vadell et al., 2018 ). This increased positive attitude is not based on an increase in the perception of positive impacts of tourism, but rather on a decrease in the perception of the negative impacts.

There is a growing body of research on Indigenous and Aboriginal tourism that emphasizes justice issues such as human rights and self-empowerment, control, and participation of traditional owners in comanagement of destinations (Jamal & Camargo, 2014 ; Ryan & Huyton, 2000 ; Whyte, 2010 ).

Sustainability of Tourism

A process or system is said to be sustainable to the extent that it is robust, resilient, and adaptive (Anderies et al., 2013 ). By most measures, the global tourism system does not meet these criteria for sustainability. Tourism is not robust in that it cannot resist threats and perturbations, such as economic shocks, public health pandemics, war, and other disruptions. Tourism is not resilient in that it does not easily recover from failures, such as natural disasters or civil unrest. Furthermore, tourism is not adaptive in that it is often unable to change in response to external conditions. One example that underscores the failure to meet all three criteria is the dependence of tourism on fossil fuels for transportation and energy, which are key inputs for tourism development. This dependence itself is not sustainable (Wheeller, 2007 ), and thus the sustainability of tourism is questionable.

Liu ( 2003 ) notes that research related to the role of tourism in sustainable development has emphasized supply-side concepts such as sustaining tourism resources and ignored the demand side, which is particularly vulnerable to social and economic shocks. Tourism is vulnerable to both localized and global shocks. Studies of the vulnerability of tourism to localized shocks include disaster vulnerability in coastal Thailand (Calgaro & Lloyd, 2008 ), bushfires in northeast Victoria in Australia (Cioccio & Michael, 2007 ), forest fires in British Columbia, Canada (Hystad & Keller, 2008 ); and outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the United Kingdom (Miller & Ritchie, 2003 ).

Like most other economic sectors, tourism is vulnerable to the impacts of earthquakes, particularly in areas where tourism infrastructure may not be resilient to such shocks. Numerous studies have examined the impacts of earthquake events on tourism, including studies of the aftermath of the 1997 earthquake in central Italy (Mazzocchi & Montini, 2001 ), the 1999 earthquake in Taiwan (Huan et al., 2004 ; Huang & Min, 2002 ), and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in western Sichuan, China (Yang et al., 2011 ), among others.

Tourism is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Regional economic strength has been found to be associated with lower vulnerability to natural disasters. Kim and Marcoullier ( 2015 ) examined the vulnerability and resilience of 10 tourism-based regional economies that included U.S. national parks or protected seashores situated on the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Ocean coastline that were affected by several hurricanes over a 26-year period. Regions with stronger economic characteristics prior to natural disasters were found to have lower disaster losses than regions with weaker economies.

Tourism is extremely sensitive to oil spills, whatever their origin, and the volume of oil released need not be large to generate significant economic losses (Cirer-Costa, 2015 ). Studies of the vulnerability of tourism to the localized shock of an oil spill include research on the impacts of oil spills in Alaska (Coddington, 2015 ), Brazil (Ribeiro et al., 2020 ), Spain (Castanedo et al., 2009 ), affected regions in the United States along the Gulf of Mexico (Pennington-Gray et al., 2011 ; Ritchie et al., 2013 ), and the Republic of Korea (Cheong, 2012 ), among others. Future research on the vulnerability of tourist destinations to oil spills should also incorporate freshwater environments, such as lakes, rivers, and streams, where the rupture of oil pipelines is more frequent.

Significant attention has been paid to assessing the vulnerability of tourist destinations to acts of terrorism and the impacts of terrorist attacks on regional tourist economies (Liu & Pratt, 2017 ). Such studies include analyses of the impacts of terrorist attacks on three European countries, Greece, Italy, and Austria (Enders et al., 1992 ); the impact of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States (Goodrich, 2002 ); terrorism and tourism in Nepal (Bhattarai et al., 2005 ); vulnerability of tourism livelihoods in Bali (Baker & Coulter, 2007 ); the impact of terrorism on tourist preferences for destinations in the Mediterranean and the Canary Islands (Arana & León, 2008 ); the 2011 massacres in Olso and Utøya, Norway (Wolff & Larsen, 2014 ); terrorism and political violence in Tunisia (Lanouar & Goaied, 2019 ); and the impact of terrorism on European tourism (Corbet et al., 2019 ), among others. Pizam and Fleischer ( 2002 ) studied the impact of acts of terrorism on tourism demand in Israel between May 1991 and May 2001 , and they confirmed that the frequency of acts of terrorism had caused a larger decline in international tourist arrivals than the severity of these acts. Most of these are ex post studies, and future assessments of the underlying conditions of destinations could reveal a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of tourism to terrorism.

Tourism is vulnerable to economic crisis, both local economic shocks (Okumus & Karamustafa, 2005 ; Stylidis & Terzidou, 2014 ) and global economic crisis (Papatheodorou et al., 2010 ; Smeral, 2010 ). Okumus and Karamustafa ( 2005 ) evaluated the impact of the February 2001 economic crisis in Turkey on tourism, and they found that the tourism industry was poorly prepared for the economic crisis despite having suffered previous impacts related to the Gulf War in the early 1990s, terrorism in Turkey in the 1990s, the civil war in former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, an internal economic crisis in 1994 , and two earthquakes in the northwest region of Turkey in 1999 . In a study of the attitudes and perceptions of citizens of Greece, Stylidis and Terzidou ( 2014 ) found that economic crisis is associated with increased support for tourism development, particularly out of self-interest. Economic crisis diminishes residents’ concern for environmental issues. In a study of the behavior of European tourists amid an economic crisis, Eugenio-Martin and Campos-Soria ( 2014 ) found that the probability of households cutting back on travel expenditures depends largely on the climate and economic conditions of tourists’ home countries, and households that do reduce travel spending engage in tourism closer to home.

Becken and Lennox ( 2012 ) studied the implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism in New Zealand, and they estimate that a doubling of oil prices is associated with a 1.7% decrease in real gross national disposable income and a 9% reduction in the real value of tourism exports. Chatziantoniou et al. ( 2013 ) investigated the relationship among oil price shocks, tourism variables, and economic indicators in four European Mediterranean countries and found that aggregate demand oil price shocks generated a lagged effect on tourism-generated income and economic growth. Kisswani et al. ( 2020 ) examined the asymmetric effect of oil prices on tourism receipts and the sensitive susceptibility of tourism to oil price changes using nonlinear analysis. The findings document a long-run asymmetrical effect for most countries, after incorporating the structural breaks, suggesting that governments and tourism businesses and organizations should interpret oil price fluctuations cautiously.

Finally, the sustainability of tourism has been shown to be vulnerable to the outbreak of infectious diseases, including the impact of the Ebola virus on tourism in sub-Saharan Africa (Maphanga & Henama, 2019 ; Novelli et al., 2018 ) and in the United States (Cahyanto et al., 2016 ). The literature also includes studies of the impact of swine flu on tourism demand in Brunei (Haque & Haque, 2018 ), Mexico (Monterrubio, 2010 ), and the United Kingdom (Page et al., 2012 ), among others. In addition, rapid assessments of the impacts of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 have documented severe disruptions and cessations of tourism because of unprecedented global travel restrictions and widespread restrictions on public gatherings (Gössling et al., 2020 ; Qiu et al., 2020 ; Sharma & Nicolau, 2020 ). Hotels, airlines, cruise lines, and car rentals have all experienced a significant decrease globally because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the shock to the industry is significant enough to warrant concerns about the long-term outlook (Sharma & Nicolau, 2020 ). Qiu et al. ( 2020 ) estimated the social costs of the pandemic to tourism in three cities in China (Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Wuhan), and they found that most respondents were willing to pay for risk reduction and action in responding to the pandemic crisis; there was no significant difference between residents’ willingness to pay in the three cities. Some research has emphasized how lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic can prepare global tourism for an economic transformation that is needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change (Brouder, 2020 ; Prideaux et al., 2020 ).

It is clear that tourism has contributed significantly to economic development globally, but its role in sustainable development is uncertain, contested, and potentially paradoxical. This is due, in part, to the contested nature of sustainable development itself. Tourism has been promoted as a low-impact, nonextractive option for economic development, particularly for developing countries (Gössling, 2000 ), and many countries have managed to increase their participation in the global economy through development of international tourism. Tourism development has been viewed as an important sector for investment to enhance economic growth, poverty alleviation, and food security, and the sector provides an alternative opportunity to large-scale development projects and extractive industries that contribute to emissions of pollutants and threaten biodiversity and cultural values. However, global evidence from research on the economic impacts of tourism has shown that this potential has rarely been realized (Liu, 2003 ).

The role of tourism in sustainable development has been studied extensively and with a variety of perspectives, including the conceptualization of alternative or responsible forms of tourism and the examination of economic, environmental, and social impacts of tourism development. The research has generally concluded that tourism development has contributed to sustainable development in some cases where it is demonstrated to have provided support for biodiversity conservation initiatives and livelihood development strategies. As an economic sector, tourism is considered to be labor intensive, providing opportunities for poor households to enhance their livelihood through the sale of goods and services to foreign tourists.

Nature-based tourism approaches such as ecotourism and community-based tourism have been successful at attracting tourists to parks and protected areas, and their spending provides financial support for biodiversity conservation, livelihoods, and economic growth in developing countries. Nevertheless, studies of the impacts of tourism development have documented negative environmental impacts locally in terms of land use, food and water consumption, and congestion, and globally in terms of the contribution of tourism to climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases related to transportation and other tourist activities. Studies of the social impacts of tourism have documented experiences of discrimination based on ethnicity, gender, race, sex, and national identity.

The sustainability of tourism as an economic sector has been examined in terms of its vulnerability to civil conflict, economic shocks, natural disasters, and public health pandemics. Most studies conclude that tourism may have positive impacts for regional development and environmental conservation, but there is evidence that tourism inherently generates negative environmental impacts, primarily through pollutions stemming from transportation. The regional benefits of tourism development must be considered alongside the global impacts of increased transportation and tourism participation. Global tourism has also been shown to be vulnerable to economic crises, oil price shocks, and global outbreaks of infectious diseases. Given that tourism is dependent on energy, the movement of people, and the consumption of resources, virtually all tourism activities have significant economic, environmental, and sustainable impacts. As such, the role of tourism in sustainable development is highly questionable. Future research on the role of tourism in sustainable development should focus on reducing the negative impacts of tourism development, both regionally and globally.

Further Reading

• Bramwell, B. , & Lane, B. (1993). Sustainable tourism: An evolving global approach. Journal of Sustainable Tourism , 1 (1), 1–5.
• Buckley, R. (2012). Sustainable tourism: Research and reality. Annals of Tourism Research , 39 (2), 528–546.
• Butler, R. W. (1991). Tourism, environment, and sustainable development. Environmental Conservation , 18 (3), 201–209.
• Butler, R. W. (1999). Sustainable tourism: A state‐of‐the‐art review. Tourism Geographies , 1 (1), 7–25.
• Clarke, J. (1997). A framework of approaches to sustainable tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism , 5 (3), 224–233.
• Fennell, D. A. (2020). Ecotourism (5th ed.). Routledge.
• Gössling, S. (2002). Global environmental consequences of tourism. Global Environmental Change , 12 (4), 283–302.
• Honey, M. (2008). Ecotourism and sustainable development: Who owns paradise? (2nd ed.). Island Press.
• Inskeep, E. (1991). Tourism planning: An integrated and sustainable development approach . Routledge.
• Jamal, T. , & Camargo, B. A. (2014). Sustainable tourism, justice and an ethic of care: Toward the just destination. Journal of Sustainable Tourism , 22 (1), 11–30.
• Liburd, J. J. , & Edwards, D. (Eds.). (2010). Understanding the sustainable development of tourism . Oxford.
• Liu, Z. (2003). Sustainable tourism development: A critique. Journal of Sustainable Tourism , 11 (6), 459–475.
• Sharpley, R. (2020). Tourism, sustainable development and the theoretical divide: 20 years on. Journal of Sustainable Tourism , 28 (11), 1932–1946.
• Adams, W. M. (2009). Green development: Environment and sustainability in a developing world (3rd ed.). Routledge.
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1. One megatonne (Mt) is equal to 1 million (10 6 ) metric tons.

2. One megajoule (MJ) is equal to 1 million (10 6 ) joules, or approximately the kinetic energy of a 1-megagram (tonne) vehicle moving at 161 km/h.

3. One gigatonne (Gt) is equal to 1 billion (10 9 ) metric tons.

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Explainer: tourism revival to boost hotels in 2024

A s the world continues to emerge from the shadows of the Covid-19 pandemic, the international tourism sector is witnessing a robust recovery, promising a prosperous year ahead for the global hotel industry.

According to the latest World Economic Forum travel and tourism study, international tourist arrivals are projected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, a trend that bodes well for hotels worldwide.

A surge in global tourist arrivals

The Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024 (TTDI), a collaborative effort between the World Economic Forum and the University of Surrey, points to a significant upturn in global tourism.

Francisco Betti, Head of the Global Industries team at the World Economic Forum, highlights this resurgence, noting, “This year marks a turning point for the travel and tourism sector, which we know has the capacity to unlock growth and serve communities through economic and social transformation.”

For hotels, this growth translates to increased occupancy rates and a revival of revenue streams that had been stifled during the pandemic.

UNWTO insights: a boost for hotel occupancy and revenue

Further emphasising the recovery, the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer reported earlier this year that international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with a strong recovery noted across the Middle East, Europe, and Africa—key markets for the hotel industry.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili comments on the sector’s resilience, stating, "The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism's resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024."

This resurgence is particularly promising for hotels as international tourism receipts reached approximately USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, indicating robust spending that directly benefits hoteliers.

Hotels can expect not only higher room bookings but also increased spending on amenities and services, enhancing overall profitability.

Addressing industry challenges and seizing opportunities

Despite the positive outlook, challenges such as economic fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and environmental concerns remain. However, the sector's recovery offers hotels the opportunity to address these issues proactively.

Enhanced sustainability practices and the adoption of new technologies like big data and artificial intelligence can streamline operations and improve the guest experience.

Iis Tussyadiah, a prominent academic in the field, underscores the importance of a strategic approach: “The sector has big potential to foster prosperity and mitigate global risks, but that potential can only be fully realized through a strategic and inclusive approach.”

For hotels, this means investing in sustainable practices, improving workforce skills, and ensuring inclusive growth.

Strategic development for sustainable growth

The TTDI 2024 highlights the critical role of high-income and developing countries in the sector's future.

For the hotel industry, this suggests a need for strategic investments in infrastructure and service quality, particularly in emerging markets where tourism growth is most pronounced.

Leveraging natural and cultural assets can also offer unique selling propositions for hotels in these regions.

Looking ahead: a bright horizon for the hotel industry

With international tourism nearing full recovery, the global hotel industry is positioned to benefit extensively.

Strategic management, a focus on sustainability, and embracing technological advancements will enable hotels to not only recover but thrive in the post-pandemic landscape.

As the world reopens, the hospitality sector is ready to welcome a new era of growth and prosperity, making it an exciting time for hoteliers and travelers alike.

"Explainer: tourism revival to boost hotels in 2024" was originally created and published by Hotel Management Network , a GlobalData owned brand.

The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.

Africa’s tourism potential

Subscribe to africa in focus, trends, drivers, opportunities, and strategies, landry signé landry signé senior fellow - global economy and development , africa growth initiative @landrysigne.

December 3, 2018

The tourism industry is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy, contributing 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), 30 percent of service exports, and 235 million jobs. Indeed, each year, approximately 1 billion people travel internationally. By 2030, consumer spending on tourism, hospitality, and recreation in Africa is projected to reach about $261.77 billion, $137.87 billion more than in 2015. From 1998 to 2015, service exports, including of “industries without smokestacks” such as tourism, have grown about six times faster than merchandise exports in Africa.

Given these trends, the travel and tourism industry has significant potential in Africa, notably due to the continent’s richness in natural resources and its potential to further develop cultural heritage, e.g., music. However, except in a few countries, such as Mauritius and Seychelles, where the tourism sector’s share of the economy is particularly large, tourism in Africa is still at an early stage of development and strongly connected with more general and longstanding development challenges, including infrastructure and security.

Aware of the potential for tourism, most countries in the region have already drafted strategic plans to develop the sector as an economic opportunity and development catalyst. For example, Gambia, Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania are all putting significant efforts into advancing travel and tourism development. Botswana, Mauritius, Rwanda, and South Africa are working particularly hard to improve their business environment for tourism investment.

The African Union and sub-regional communities have also put tourism at the top of their agendas. For example, the African Union has endorsed the continent’s Tourism Action Plan (TAP) developed by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), renamed African Union Development Agency (AUDA). The TAP recognizes tourism development among priority sector strategies of AUDA across Africa and aims to make Africa the destination of the 21st century. The 15 members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have introduced a visa policy that enables free movement of people across member states, offering a larger market to international travelers.

While improvements have been achieved in various areas, especially at the local level, much more needs to be done by both the public and the private sectors to fully tap Africa’s potential in the tourism industry. This report starts with an overview of tourism development in Africa and explores some of the key constraints that have prevented this sector from maturing. It identifies important stakeholders and potential opportunities for its future development. It also provides illustrative examples of countries representative of different trajectories of tourism development. Finally, with attention to current major policy reforms, the report draws conclusions about the future of the tourism sector in Africa.

The report aims to offer business leaders an overview of Africa’s biggest opportunities and risks in the tourism sector, discussing trends, drivers, perspectives, and strategies for effective investment. It also provides policymakers with some solutions related to the areas that need to be improved to attract private investors, accelerate tourism development, and contribute to growth and poverty alleviation, facilitating the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

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A GIS-Based Assessment of Urban Tourism Potential with a Branding Approach Utilizing Hybrid Modeling

• Published: 11 March 2022
• Volume 30 , pages 399–416, ( 2022 )

Cite this article

• Majid Dadashpour Moghaddam 1 ,
• Hassan Ahmadzadeh 1 &
• Reza Valizadeh 1  

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Urban tourism has developed into one of the most efficient and effective economic and recreational activities in the modern era since the late second half of the twentieth century. Although attention to urban tourism development is increasing, this paper indicates that no comprehensive study has yet combined the two subjects of tourism development and branding for spatial modeling. Thus, for assessing urban tourism potential (AUTP), a novel hybrid modeling approach combining K-mean, fuzzy logic, and an artificial neural network (ANN) was used. The findings indicate that in Tabriz metropolis, areas 3 and 7 and the southwestern portion of region 6 have the most significant potential for urban tourism. In contrast, areas 4, 8, and 10 located within the worn-out urban fabric have the least potential for tourism. Subsequently, by examining the correlation between urban tourism conditioning factors (UTCFs) and tourism maps, it was determined that factors including distance from the catering centers, distance from the fault, quality of construction materials, distance from the historical centers, distance from the health centers, maximum temperature, and distance from the parking are the most critical in terms of increasing urban tourism's potential and branding. The analyses conducted in this study provide valuable and practical information for developing future strategies urban tourism. To this end, recommendations have been made to enhance tourism destination service delivery and management through branding.

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1 Introduction

Tourism has grown exponentially in recent decades due to advancements in the travel process, transportation industry, and revenue growth. Tourism is one of the most dynamic economic sectors today, having a significant impact on society's economic, social, and cultural activities [ 1 ]. Since the 1980s, urban management has taken on a new form, characterized by a liberal [ 2 ] urban policy grounded in economics and creative consumption. The surge in interest in urban tourism has significantly altered tourism trends and methods [ 3 ]. Today, urban areas worldwide are among the most important destinations for tourism [ 4 ]. Thus, cities cultivate elegance and competition to attract economic development and prosperity. However, the development of tourism in many countries has been threatened by neoliberal strategies. Tourism can have a lasting positive impact on the environment, society, culture, politics and economy if it is carefully managed. Hence, in the twenty-first century, the tourism industry has become a way for societies to thrive and countries to overtake and compete. As a result, governments have considered the development of sustainable and beneficial tourism as a multifaceted mechanism, which can play a colorful role in the development of territorial space. Thus, by attracting capital, tourists and by expanding tourism markets in line with technological advancements, tourism could attract foreign competition and establish social welfare while branding the local area [ 5 ]. Urban tourism management and planning are integrated into governments' macro-socio-economic policies, allowing local managers to impact the tourism industry directly [ 6 ]. Hence, as a critical activity of local governments, tourism policy should be explained in terms of a society's economic and social goals, resulting in a balanced relationship between tourism supply and demand [ 7 ]. Frequently, unplanned tourism in cities results in the degradation of the natural environment, cultural heritage, laws, and culture of the community, plus detrimental effects on the citizens' quality of life [ 8 ]. As a result, one of the primary goals of urban planners is to identify potential tourism areas to implement space policies in cities that predict the desired level of social welfare consistent with the sustainable development of tourism [ 9 ]. Consequently, cities with standard spaces and amenities can attract a large number of tourists. Because the space of cities should be attractive not only for its citizens but also for tourists and express the special identity and characteristics of that city. Recent years have been an exciting time for tourists interested in urban tourism [ 10 ]. While the global coronavirus outbreak significantly reduced domestic and international tourism and posed a severe threat to the industry [ 11 ]. Consequently, the COVID-19 virus has been the most influential crisis to affect countries, organizations, and various economic sectors since World War II [ 12 ]. Although, short- or long-term measures and adequate planning are considered critical in compensating for the epidemic's damage and mitigating its negative consequences through tourism development [ 13 ]. Hence, branding potential tourism destinations in cities are crucial for economic differentiation today, affecting physical growth and economic competition [ 14 ].

As a complementary process, branding the potentials of urban tourism endows the city with a distinct identity and contributes significantly to the competitiveness approach in cities, which is now referred to as the primary link in the economic structure [ 15 ]. Hence, in the field of tourism, there is a powerful tool in the hands of officials that can help attract visitors, tourists and investors and bring economic growth and prosperity to the city [ 16 ]. The city brand raises the growing understanding, recognition and respect of being in a place as a resident, tourist, businessman or student, focusing on helping all public, private and non-private organizations whose livelihood depends on the image and reputation of the city. Until the 1990s, few studies on the identification of potential tourism areas had been published. However, numerous studies on the development and expansion of the tourism process at regional, national, and international levels have been presented more recently. Pearce [ 17 ] developed an integrated trend for urban tourism in a study by identifying thematic cells in terms of region, city, national, and international levels plus its various aspects, including supply and demand. Asadi [ 18 ] conducted a three-phase study on the optimal policies for urban tourism in Iran (entry levels, implementation, and decision making). While providing management approaches at urban and regional levels may be one of the study's strengths, using questionnaire techniques and presenting results using non-spatial analysis (survey and descriptive) are significant weaknesses. Liaghat et al. [ 19 ] examined the identification of coastal tourism hotspots, emphasizing the importance of urban tourism development. However, the use of expert weights based upon personal judgments casts doubt on the study's findings.

Blasco and Prats [ 20 ] used a consumer-based approach to examine the zoning of a tourist destination, utilizing GIS techniques and hierarchical cluster analysis based on time intervals between attractions. In another study, Li et al. [ 21 ] investigated the ability of GIS and statistical methods to identify functional areas of tourism by examining the existence of a spatial relationship between various elements of urban tourism. The study mapped hotels, analyzed land use characteristics, and investigated a variety of Hong Kong's tourist attractions. However, the study suffered from a lack of consideration for other essential aspects of urban tourism, including social, environmental, and other related factors.

Ghaed Rahmati and Daneshmandi [ 22 ] used a descriptive-analytical method to identify new urban tourism destinations in Isfahan. The study categorized urban tourism destinations into four categories: natural, historical and cultural, recreational, and residential, a valid and reliable classification for presenting urban tourism data. Brouder [ 23 ] examines the improvement of new processes for the development of tourism after the COVID-19 epidemic. The results of his study indicate the emergence of new routes and the evolution of tourism if sufficient institutional innovation is created on both sides of tourism demand and supply. Soliku et al. [ 24 ] while proposing short-term and long-term strategies to resist the destructive socio-economic and environmental effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the tourism sector, proposes support for affected local companies with the aim of diversifying the local economy and promoting domestic tourism. Although the lack of spatial and thematic maps and an emphasis on statistical and descriptive methods prevents managers and tourists from fully comprehending the state of urban tourism, Ong and Smith [ 25 ] sought to better understand the dynamics of urban tourism by modeling space and examining the evolution of tourism in two historic cities. The study's primary objectives were to describe tourism's spatial and temporal evolution, emphasizing case studies and comparative analysis.

A review of the studies mentioned above reveals that various outcomes have been presented in determining potential tourism areas and implementing management policies, each of which is valuable in its own way. However, these studies used statistical and descriptive methods and approached the subject cross-sectionally and one-dimensionally. As a result of the critical nature of defining tourism areas, new, efficient, and comprehensive approaches to introducing tourism-prone areas and branding them are even more essential. Thus, the purpose of this study is to create potential tourism maps for Tabriz metropolis and its branding, social, physical, environmental, and meteorological factors using GIS techniques and merged artificial neural network (ANN) learning models. Consequently, from the innovations of this research is the use of spatial factors related to tourism and modeling with a combined approach.

2 Materials and methods

2.1 study area.

The study area is Tabriz metropolis, the capital of East Azerbaijan province and one of Iran's major cities. It is the largest city in the country's northwestern region and serves as the administrative, communication, commercial, political, industrial, cultural, and military hub for the region, located at 46° 18′ E and 38° 04′ N (Fig.  1 ). Tabriz's metropolis covers an area of 23,745 Km 2 , has a population of 1,724,369 people, and is divided into 10 municipal districts, according to the 2016 population and housing census. Today, the city's moderate climate, ample water resources, fertile soil, springs, and abundant mineral resources have resulted in the growth of residential, manufacturing, industrial, service, and agricultural areas. Summers in Tabriz metropolis are dry and hot, influenced by the region's high altitudes, while winters are cold due to the region's mountainous topography. Among the reasons for selecting Tabriz metropolis as a study area is its significant tourism potential, owing to its historical, cultural, and recreational attractions. As a result of these attractions, the city of Tabriz metropolis has attracted a large number of domestic and international tourists. Figure  1 illustrates two of this city's historical and recreational attractions (a-b).

Geographical and physical location of Tabriz metropolis in the divisions of the country, a Qajar Museum, b Eli Goli Garden

In addition, the geopolitical location of this city has caused it to become a bridge between Iran and Europe. On the other hand, the fertility of the soil, temperate climate, sufficient water, plains and alluvial fans at the foot of the mountain, springs and mineral resources have made this city a hub for the development of residential, service, medical and industrial homes. Thus, the growing growth of the city in terms of tourism development was increasing until it suddenly declined with the spread of the Corona virus. As far as, according to field studies and documents available at the time of the corona virus outbreak in Tabriz metropolis, economic sectors such as tourism, foreign trade, capital market, foreign exchange market, housing market, small businesses, public businesses, commodity prices and production domestic gross are severely were affected.

2.2 Methodology

The methodological flowchart of this study is shown in Fig.  2 . The research methodology used in this study is based on the purpose of the applied type, and the resources gathered are from the library, field, and spatial data of the study area. Initially, factors of Meteorology (Precipitations, Maximum temperature, Minimum temperature), Physical (Quality materials, Distance from Subway station, Distance from Amusement catering centers, Distance from Historical centers, Distance from Health centers, Distance from Parking, Distance from Fire station, Distance from Road), Social (Population density, Singles density, Laborforc density, Married density), and Environmental (Distance from fault) were chosen as conditioning factors affecting the potential for urban tourism. The Arc GIS 10.4 software was then used to create numerous functions as raster maps using the available spatial and descriptive data. Because the study is modeling-based, the K-mean clustering method was used to create an training database for neural network models (ANNs). Following that, a training database was created using the output map generated by the K-mean model, which was divided into five classes. Afterward, the maps were standardized using fuzzy logic in the range between 0 and 1 based on the increase or decrease in each factor (the effect of each factor on tourism potential). The implementation of MLP and RBF learning models using conditioning factors and training data is one of the study's primary stages, with each stage producing a tourism potential map. Finally, potential tourist destinations were branded using output maps.

Methodological diagram of the study

2.3 Urban tourism conditioning factors (UTCFs)

Until now, researchers and various tourism organizations attempted to ascertain the factors that influence tourism. However, there has been no consensus among researchers on the use of factors affecting tourism in the world, and local conditions have been decisive in this regard. Nevertheless, this could be because different urban areas have different tourism sources. Obviously, in the tourism industry, these indicators will be determined by visitors and through expert opinion. The data collection method used in this study was divided into two categories: library and field. The urban tourism conditioning factors affecting the identification of potential tourism areas in Tabriz's metropolis are classified into four broad categories in this study: Meteorology, Physical, Social, and Environmental (Table 1 ).

Crowding due to the density of individuals, families, and homes are detrimental to tourists, because it increases the insecurity coefficient. Thus, some tourists' concerns about population insecurity and dislike for noise and crowds are motivated by their negative emotions and feelings toward a tourist destination [ 26 ]. To this end, population density maps were used as one of the influential factors in selecting tourist destinations in this study. Additionally, the factors of single or married citizens' density and labor force density were significant in tourist satisfaction [ 27 ]. Thus, the marriage and employment of a community's citizens are inextricably linked to tourists' sense of security and satisfaction in a tourist city. The social factors map was created using the 2016 Iranian population and housing census data, and population blocks were created using the density function in Arc GIS 10.4 (Fig.  3 a–d).

Social and physical factors affecting urban tourism potential a Population density; b Singles density; c Laborforc density; d Married density; e Quality materials; f Distance from Subway station; g Distance from Amusement catering centers; h Distance from Historical centers

The quality of construction materials used to transform potentials into tourism hotspots in cities is critical. Because they will be where tourists spend most of their time and activities, the quality of land uses, particularly buildings, is essential for urban tourism [ 28 ]. Accordingly, a density map relating to the quality of construction materials in Tabriz's metropolis was created using 2016 census data expressed in terms of density per hectare (Fig.  3 e). So that by expert opinion and experience of previous earthquakes, concrete frame materials, iron and brick were classified in resistant type and mud, wood and stone in non-resistant type.

Undoubtedly, public transportation stations in cities play a role in determining tourist destinations. Due to the ease with which urban terminals, railways, and airports can be accessed, the construction of tourism centers adjacent to subway stations is one of the management policies addressed when discussing urban tourism [ 29 ]. The map depicting the distances from subway stations in Tabriz metropolis was created using the station locations and the Euclidean distance function in the Arc GIS 10.4 software (Fig.  3 f).

Tourism development in cities with cultural and historical significance can attract tourists interested in the region's resources and natural beauty. Urban tourism destinations will be promoted close to cultural capitals, historical sites, dining, and entertainment complexes [ 30 ]. Thus, the presences of these centers can effectively double an area's attractiveness to tourists. As a result, spatial maps were created in this study using Euclidean distances for monuments and catering centers (Fig.  3 g–h).

Current tourism policies must incorporate the relationship between tourism and health care. Several factors contribute to this connection, including health tourism [ 31 ], tourists' sense of security and easy access to medical facilities. Therefore, the closer a location is to medical and health care facilities, the greater the potential for tourism [ 32 ]. In addition, the need to understand the individual behaviors of patients with Covid-19 and the need for hospitalization doubles the importance of proximity to health centers with the aim of reducing transfer time [ 33 ]. This study created a map depicting the distance to health centers ranging from 0 to 14,771 m (Fig.  4 a).

Physical and meteorological factors affecting urban tourism potential a Distance from Health centers; b Distance from Parking; ( c ) Distance from Fire station; d Distance from Road; e Distance from fault; f Maximum temperature; g Minimum temperature; h Precipitations

The presence of a large number of tourists in an area erodes the area's values and attractiveness [ 34 ]. Consequently, managing the transportation system for tourists and residents will be a significant infrastructural challenge in metropolitan areas, and parking will be provided to address this issue. Therefore, in addition to wasting time and energy, locating a parking space for tourists can decrease fuel consumption, car oil usage, and environmental pollution [ 35 ]. Hence, the rapid access of tourist attractions to parking lots will increase tourism potential. The locations of all public parking lots in Tabriz's metropolis were recorded using GPS, and then a distance map was created accordingly (Fig.  4 b).

Tourists' sense of security and comfort is a critical factor that local managers should consider when selecting tourist destinations [ 36 ]. Increased tourist accessibility to major roads and fire stations improves a tourist destination's reliability and security. Tourists are they more inclined to vital centers, city exits, and transportation terminals because the main roads are broader and safer to drive on.

In contrast, the closer a location is to existing faults, the less secure it is during an earthquake [ 37 ]. Therefore, the location and construction of urban tourism centers near faults directly affect tourist safety. The Euclidean distance function created distance maps of Tabriz metropolis fire stations, faults, and major roads (Fig.  4 c–e).

Climate change can be detrimental to urban tourism [ 38 ]. Despite the critical nature of urban tourism and its economic benefits, meteorological factors are still excluded from tourism studies. Tourists, in general, react to rainfall that affects specific aspects of tourism. Additionally, the high or low temperature of an area affects tourists' attitudes [ 39 ]. Thus, in this study, precipitation (Rain), maximum temperature, and minimum temperature factors were calculated using meteorological data for ten years (2012–2021). So that meteorological data were used as an annual average for each of the factors. The Inverse distance weighting (IDW) method was then used to create the map of meteorological factors in Arc GIS 10.4 software (Fig.  4 f–h).

2.4 Background of the models

2.4.1 k-means clustering.

The K-means algorithm is capable of unsupervised classification by merging inputs via a clustering process. This technique uses what is known as the K clustering capability, which divides an n-dimensional image into exclusive K clusters. After initializing K centroids (meaning), the KMEANS method is used to cluster the pixels corresponding to the input factors (raster layers). The pixels corresponding to the input factors (raster layers) will approach the cluster whose center is the most central [ 40 ]. In general, this is a novel algorithm for minimizing SSE (sum of square errors) that calculates the distance between the pixels and the cluster center using the Euclidean distance. The distance between a pixel and a cluster center is calculated as follows:

where \(d_{ik}\) denotes the distance between the \(i - th\) pixel and the \(k - th\) centroid; Xin denotes the vector ( \(X1\) , \(X2\) , …, \(X_{n}\) ) of the \(i - th\) pixel; and \(C_{kn}\) denotes the vector ( \(C1\) , \(C2\) , …, \(C_{n}\) ) of the \(k - th\) centroid, where n denotes the number of bends.

The input bands in this study are the same raster layers of the classified factors used to implement the K-means algorithm.

2.4.2 Fuzzy logic

Fuzzy sets are sets or classes that lack precise boundaries and in which the transition between set members and incomplete members of a phenomenon in the set is gradual [ 41 ]. Imagining fuzzy sets facilitates the development of a conceptual framework that is similar in many ways to the frameworks used in conventional sets [ 42 ]. Fuzzy logic emphasizes linguistic variables and aims to provide an argumentative foundation for approximate reasoning via false propositions. In general, fuzzy logic is based on the presentation of a theory in terms of uncertainty [ 43 ]. Thus, the researcher can mathematically explain numerous concepts and ambiguous variables and provide a foundation for reasoning, inference, control, and decision-making using this theory.

Initially, this method selects the relevant factors. Based on these factors, the entire region is divided into appropriate units (value one or zero) or inappropriate units (value zero or false). The performance of a fuzzy set's membership function will then be expressed. In this study, suitability or unsuitability will be determined based on the extent of tourism potential. So that values 1 have the highest potential and values 0 have the lowest potential. Therefore, the shape of the membership function must be carefully designed and selected, as it can affect the fuzzy system's performance. Fuzzy logic includes four fuzzy set membership functions: Sigmoidal, J-Shaped, Linear, and User-defined.

Due to its simplicity, a linear membership function was used in this study. In general, a fuzzy set is a collection of elements that share similar properties and are defined by a specific unit ranging from 0 to 1 [ 44 ]. A zero value indicates that it is not a member of that set, whereas one suggests it is a full member. As a result of each factor's unique unit of measurement, fuzzy logic was used to standardize all factors in the range 0 to 1. Generally, fuzzy factorization will be performed using both incremental and decrease functions. The shape of an incremental function increases uniformly. This function will be used for layers that find more favorable conditions by increasing the numerical values of each factor, and the fuzzy number tends to 1. On the other hand, in the decrease function, the condition will revert to the undesirable state, i.e., 0. This is another standardization method used in this study for modeling.

2.4.3 Multi-layer perceptron (MLP)

The last decade has seen increased computational intelligence to solve problems that lack a definite solution or are difficult to solve. The human biological neural network inspires artificial neural networks (ANNs), and research on neural networks has been accompanied by an understanding and study of the human brain's structure and learning function [ 46 ]. There is no requirement for a set of special rules to solve the problem in this computational method, and the primary reliance is on the system's gradual training and learning [ 47 ]. Multi-layer perceptron networks (MLPs) are a type of artificial neural network algorithm widely used and successful for modeling and forecasting [ 48 ]. This model comprises an input layer, one or more hidden layers, and an output layer. It is based on training rules and a "back-propagation" network. With a two-by-two classification approach, the perceptron network associates the input value X (a vector of real numbers) with the output value f (x) (a scalar with binary values):

where \(x\) is the weight vector with real values and \(\omega . x + b\) is the internal product of the weight vector and the input vector.

2.4.4 Radial basis function neural network (RBFNN)

RBFNN is a type of neural network that utilizes the radial function neural network to perform supervised classification [ 49 ]. As with MLP, this model consists of an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer [ 50 ]. Thus, one of the RBF model's potential capabilities is the use of radial (Gaussian) base functions within the hidden layer. The input is modeled as a vector of real numbers by the hidden layer wi an active nonlinear RBF function, plus the linear output layer with a linear function. The result of connecting the hidden layer to the input layer and the hidden layer to the output layer in an RBF network is through two sets of weights. Thus, the weights attached to the input layer contain the parameters for the basic functions, and the weights attached to the hidden layer are also used to generate network outputs:

where \(k\) is the number of radial base functions, \(x\) denotes the input vector, \(w_{ni}\) represents the weight relationship between the base function and the output layer, and \(\varphi_{i}\) is the radial basis function.

3 Results and discussion

3.1 standardization of utcfs.

Spatial analysis establishes a strong connection between humans and their environment to identify and develop tourism capabilities. The spatial elements that comprise the environment are identified through this process and its commonly used methods. While establishing relationships between the elements, a thorough analysis of the surrounding environment is conducted. It is a collection of tools, techniques, and methods applied to geographic information systems science. The final modeling was carried out in this study using two different learning models: MLP and RBF. As a result, problem-solving begins after identifying the factors affecting tourism (independent variables) and preparing training sites (dependent variables). These factors are represented in GIS as distinct raster layers. Spatial modeling with ANN, particularly in studies involving a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data sources, necessitates standardization of the layer measurement scales. Thus, scale standardization enables meaningful comparisons of data.

Standardization can be accomplished in various ways, but a common method is to use a linear process to rescale the values in the raster map between the minimum and maximum values. Because the linear function is widely used in fuzzy sets due to its simplicity and need for output monitoring. The fuzzy method was used to standardize the factors in this study, and all values for raster layers were between 0 and 1 (Table 2 ). Because in human decisions, relative terms such as approximately, to some extent, and others are infrequently used, absolute numbers are frequently used. Thus, a fuzzy theory expresses imprecise concepts and is a common set developed within mathematical expressions. Therefore, the maximum membership value (1) corresponds to the full tourism potential, while the minimum membership value (0) corresponds to the minimum tourism potential (lowest tourism potential). Two control points are required in the linear function to express the performance of the fuzzy set membership when the "uniform increase" or "uniform decrease" patterns are selected. Therefore, in the first case, points a and b; and in the second case, points c and d are selected. Following that, when selecting the "symmetric" curve, all four control points a, b, c, and d must be used. Based on the type of impact of each factor on the tourism potential, fuzzy operations were performed in IDRISI software. The sum of the pixels of each factor also remained constant after standardization and fuzzy.

3.2 Preparation of the training database

The artificial neural network (ANN) is a collection of learning models that enables nonlinear linking between variables in the input and output datasets [ 51 ]. In this set, the modeling process is based on a learning path that can provide estimated values for output variables based on the input data. The objective is for trained models to be sufficiently generalizable to new and unknown data. Hence, data sets of training are required to use MLP and RBF models. Initially, training data is used to develop appropriate network weights that accurately represent the relationship between input and output. Therefore, the inventory map (training sites) is critical to the outcome of potential tourism modeling.

Collecting, analyzing, selecting, and pre-processing training data is the first step in training neural networks. However, one of the challenges ahead will be compiling a set of training data for various studies. Considering that this study's objective is to identify areas with high tourism potential and that hot spots (high potential) will not be identified naturally, the basic map generated by integrating classification factors (UTCFs) was used to create training sites. Additionally, no such study has been conducted in Tabriz metropolis to date, allowing this study to use the location of tourist attractions as a training ground. As a result, the proposed method in this study is a novel process for determining tourist areas, which was previously used in a similar sample [ 52 ] and then [ 50 ] to identify earthquake vulnerability points in urban areas.

Given that the basis for building the training data set was the clustering model, the input in the K-means model was standardized factors by the classification method and the output of the model was a map classified into five classes. After classifying the K-means map into five possible classes as Very Inappropriate, Inappropriate, Moderate, Appropriate and Very Appropriate, 30 points from each classes were randomly selected as training sites (hotspots) (Fig.  5 ).

Training database created using the K-means model

3.3 Urban tourism potential mapping (UTPM)

The objective of neural network models is to create and implement models that can learn from training data. As a result, such models can take input data and, using a mathematical model to make decisions based on the database, generate outputs in the form of predictive maps. MLP and RBF were created and implemented in this study using a supervised learning method based on a training data set. A result is obtained and compared to the target in the set of training sites for each input vector. The training sets used to build the models represent a classified pixel used to fit the parameters and factors during the learning process. By combining supervised learning and optimal factor integration, these models can generate accurate predictive maps (UTCFs). The back-propagation algorithm (BP) reduced the error between the model and the actual data while teaching the MLP model. The input of neural network models were two sets of independent data (factors affecting tourism potential) and dependent data (training points). Model execution modules were also set based on default values. This process is repeated until the error rate is minimized and the accuracy is maximized. From the accuracy rate (100%) set to run the model, an accuracy of 84.00% was observed (Fig.  6 ).

Accuracy and error monitoring for MLP model output

As with the MLP model, the RBF model considered the number of factors analyzed as raster layers and model input in the IDRISI Selva software. Additionally, the file associated with the training site was used to implement the model as a raster layer with five classes. The method for sampling training data for stratified sampling must be determined before the RBF model can be implemented. Because the RBF network is a multi-layer neural network for classification problems, a hidden layer is required to implement it. This hidden layer includes a statistical conversion function called the radial basis function (RBF). As a result, its default number was 16. The clustering process is continued in this model until a specified percentage of pixels migrating to the new centroids equal the set default, i.e., 1.0%. The RBFNN model calibration parameters are listed in Table 3 .

The output of the two hybrid models (Fuzzy-MLP and Fuzzy-RBF) is in the form of maps classified into five potential tourism classes, ranging from Very Inappropriate to Very Appropriate (Fig.  7 a–b).

Tourism potential maps of Tabriz metropolis based on two models Fuzzy MLP a and Fuzzy-RBF b

According to the RBF model, most of Tabriz's metropolis falls between Very inappropriate and Inappropriate tourism potential. These areas total approximately 97,146,500 m 2 , or 54% of the total area (Fig.  8 ). Furthermore, approximately 53,481,400 m 2 of Tabriz's metropolitan area is located in an area with medium potential, accounting for 23% of the city's total area.

Percentage of performance of models in classifying potential urban tourism areas

However, only 23% of the city's tourism potential from areas 3, 7, and the northern and southwest portions of 6 is Appropriate or Very Appropriate. Additionally, as illustrated the highest tourism potential of Tabriz metropolis in the MLP model is associated with areas 3 and 7, which account for 98,908,400 m 2 of the city's total area (Fig.  8 ), contrasting with the RBF model's results of approximately 5,008,100 m 2 in the Appropriate and Very Appropriate classes.

Although the conditions for this model with a difference of 152,177 m 2 are almost identical to those for the RBF model, in general, urban tourism has the greatest potential in regions 3, 7, and 6. In contrast, the least potential exists in areas 1, 2, 4, 5, and the southern portions of 6, 8, 9, and 10. Among the neighborhoods mentioned above, Areas 4, 8, and 10 frequently have a worn texture and a crowded, dense atmosphere.

3.4 Branding

The branding process is a deliberate effort to establish a product, business, industry, individual, institution, group, city, province, or country's manufacturing, images, and meaning in the minds of its audience. As a result, cities worldwide must communicate their unique characteristics, culture, and prosperous economic situation to the rest of the world in the age of globalization. The city's branding must be carried out so that culture, history, economic development, social development, infrastructure and architecture, landscapes, and environment all come together to form a marketable identity accepted by most people [ 53 ].

After identifying potential urban tourism areas, this study will focus on branding the Tabriz metropolis. Given the metropolis of Tabriz's cultural-historical, commercial, service, and tourist character, it can be stated that branding urban tourism destinations is a powerful tool in the hands of officials, enabling them to attract visitors, tourists, and investors, as well as achieve sustainable growth and development for this metropolis. In terms of tourism, each municipality has a unique reputation based on its capacity, facilities, and activities that set it apart from other cities. This reputation, referred to as an urban tourism brand, is a composite of each city's historical identity, social characteristics, and symbols of civilization, commercial activities, amenities, entertainment, and potential tourism capacities.

The correlation between the factors affecting urban tourism modeling (UTCFs) and two output models (Fuzzy -MLP and Fuzzy -RBF) was determined to ascertain the factors affecting the branding of potential tourism areas in the Tabriz metropolis. Thus, the stronger the correlation between each factor and the output model, the greater the impact on tourism modeling and mapping. As a result, a correlation between 16 influential factors and two hybrid models was extracted using the Band Collection Statistics command in ArcGIS 10.4 software (Fig.  9 ).

Spatial correlation between branding indices and hybrid model; a: Fuzzy-MLP, b: Fuzzy-RBFNN

Correlation analysis indicates that all factors significantly impact tourism in Tabriz metropolis; however, distance from the catering centers, distance from the faults, quality of construction materials, distance from the historical centers, distance from the health centers, maximum temperature, and distance from the parking have the highest correlation with two hybrid models. The results indicate that physical criteria have a more significant impact on the potential for urban tourism than other criteria. The results of the study [ 28 , 31 ] corroborate the findings of this study.

So that the correlation of factors with the two models Fuzzy -MLP and Fuzzy -RBF is similar. In terms of meteorological factors, this correlation is quite clear, because in the regions with the lowest temperature, there is less potential for tourism in the two combined models. This also applies to the distance from the fault lines. Because in the southern parts of region 7, the lowest tourism potential corresponds to the closest distance to the fault. Pixels related to the density of buildings with high quality materials in areas 3, 4 and 10 are significantly consistent with similar values in tourism potential maps in these areas. Proximity to historical and health centers in Fig.  9 a-b also shows the similarity of the pixels classified in the two hybrid models for the above factors and the high potential of tourism. The purpose of identifying the most influential factors on urban tourism in Tabriz metropolis was to introduce the most important drivers for tourism branding, reinforce the strengths of these factors through branding, and take a practical step toward tourism development. The studies in Table 3 corroborate our findings regarding the importance of brand factors. The conceptual model for branding potential tourism areas will be summarized in two stages: brand recognition and brand planning. The first step in branding urban tourism is to determine which elements should be branded [ 54 ]. In the second step, a branding strategy should be developed that is appropriate for the environment's capacity and demand.

Therefore, it is critical to consider what the city wishes to be known for and what tourists expect. Accordingly, a brand cannot be defined for a location that is devoid of attractions and potentials. Tourism maps and designated hotspots may prove beneficial in the second step of branding as target areas. In this regard, branding strategies have been explained to increase tourist satisfaction and develop potential tourism destinations that compete with global brands based on Tabriz's strengths (Table 4 ).

4 Conclusion

Today, urban tourism is widely recognized as a critical and influential factor in a country's urban development and revenue generation. While this role generates necessary revenue for the city, it also contributes to developing essential equipment and infrastructure. As a result, identifying areas with high tourism potential can aid with industry planning and evaluation. Meanwhile, cities that have created a distinct tourism brand become more well-known to the public and attract a significant share of tourism, business, investment, respect, and attention. The desired criteria and factors were first selected and converted to raster layers using the Arc GIS 10.4 software to identify potential tourism areas in Tabriz metropolis.

Using fuzzy logic to standardize the maps and implementing the K-mean model, an training database for implementing the combined Fuzzy-MLP and Fuzzy-RBF models was created. The final tourism maps were created to demonstrate the desirability of tourism spaces, with different areas of Tabriz metropolis being identified based on their existing infrastructure. Based on the findings, the two hybrid models have significant similarities in the classification of suitable and unsuitable pixels for urban tourism. So that tourism has a high potential in Tabriz's areas 3 and 7. In contrast, zones 1, 2 and 8 are in the inappropriate and medium potential classes. Additionally, the correlation between each factor and the final maps was determined to identify tourism branding indicators. Among these factors, distance from the catering centers, distance from the faults, quality of construction materials, distance from the historical centers, distance from the health centers, maximum temperature, and distance from the parking had the most significant impact on modeling and correlation with the two hybrid models.

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Dadashpour Moghaddam, M., Ahmadzadeh, H. & Valizadeh, R. A GIS-Based Assessment of Urban Tourism Potential with a Branding Approach Utilizing Hybrid Modeling. Spat. Inf. Res. 30 , 399–416 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-022-00439-4

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-022-00439-4

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SA Ranks Highest in Africa on 2024 Travel and Tourism Development Index

“the tourism sector has achieved robust growth over the past year due to closer partnerships and collaborations with the private sector to grow tourism to its full potential,” de lille noted..

• South Africa

South Africa has emerged as the top-ranked African nation on the 2024 Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI) by the World Economic Forum, marking a significant achievement for the country's tourism sector.

“We are extremely pleased with this ranking as it affirms our commitment and work to elevate the significance and contribution of the tourism sector in South Africa,” stated Minister of Tourism Patricia de Lille on Thursday.

Ranked 55th among 119 countries, South Africa leads the continent in the TTDI, which assesses factors and policies that enable sustainable and resilient development of the travel and tourism sector. This development is crucial for the economic growth of the country.

In 2023, South Africa welcomed nearly 8.5 million international visitors, with 6.4 million coming from the African continent, reflecting a 48.9% increase compared to 2022. The first quarter of 2024 saw 2.4 million international visitors, a 15.4% rise from the same period in the previous year.

“The tourism sector has achieved robust growth over the past year due to closer partnerships and collaborations with the private sector to grow tourism to its full potential,” de Lille noted.

In the 2024 Index, South Africa advanced seven places from its previous ranking, scoring high in price competitiveness, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) readiness, natural resources, and the socio-economic impact of travel and tourism.

“We are delighted by the growth and our mission remains to exponentially grow arrival numbers and the overall performance of the tourism sector,” de Lille added. She emphasized the sector's significant contribution to South Africa’s GDP and job creation efforts, while acknowledging the ongoing collaboration with private sector stakeholders.

"The South Africa tourism sector’s greatest asset is our people, and we will continue working to grow tourism’s contribution to the prosperity of people and the planet,” the Minister concluded.    

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Johor has great potential to be a major tourist destination in Malaysia, says MB

Wednesday, 15 May 2024

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ISKANDAR PUTERI: Johor has many tourist centres with huge potential which the state can be proud of, says Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi ( pic ).

The Mentri Besar said recently, a video went viral on social media questioning the state's tourism sector and that Johor has no interesting places to visit.

“The video highlighted that Johor is boring with many places closed. We accept such views with an open heart.

“But let me share that Johor actually has various treasures and tourist centres with good potential and can be proud of,” he said in his reply to Anuar Abd Manap (BN-Pemanis), Azizul Bachok (BN-Tiram), Datuk Pandak Ahmad (BN-Kota Iskandar), Datuk Mohamad Najib Samuri (BN-Parit Yaani), Amira Aisya Abd Aziz (Muda-Puteri Wangsa), Liow Cai Tung (PH-Johor Jaya) and Ng Yak How (PH-Bentayan) during the state assembly meeting at Bangunan Sultan Ismail in Kota Iskandar on Wednesday (May 15).

Onn Hafiz said Johor has six national parks, theme parks, museums and galleries, many ecotourism sites and international, as well as world-class islands.

He said this clearly showed Johor has many tourism products but the question is whether these attractions meet the expectations of tourists.

“If we accept this question with an open heart, then the answer is not yet,” he said.

Onn Hafiz also said recently, the government held a tourism empowerment workshop where they received feedback on unsatisfactory public transport connectivity, tourist-unfriendly roads and broadband infrastructure problems in rural areas.

“Due to this, the state government plans to outline two main strategies to make the Visit Johor Year 2026 agenda a success. Firstly, we will upgrade the existing tourism infrastructure.

“When the infrastructure has been upgraded, we will then move to promote all these tourism products,” he said, adding that some RM67.6mil has been allocated through the state budget 2024 for the purpose.

The Mentri Besar added that 10 tourism development projects would be completed this year while four tourism upgrading projects by next year.

He said the state government would also implement six marketing and promotion initiatives including tourism promotion campaigns, both domestic and international.

“Johor has great potential in the tourism sector. With its natural beauty, rich cultural heritage and various other tourist attractions, the state can offer a variety of options to tourists.

“I am confident if the two strategies can be implemented properly and thoroughly, the state will be able to become a major tourist destination in Malaysia,” he added.

Tags / Keywords: Tourism , Johor , national parks , tourists

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