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Nearly 44 Million Travelers Leaving Town for Unofficial Start of Summer

Second highest memorial day holiday travel forecast since aaa began tracking in 2000.

WASHINGTON, DC (May 13, 2024) – AAA projects 43.8 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Memorial Day holiday travel period*. This year’s total number of travelers is a 4% increase over last year and comes close to matching 2005’s record of 44 million Memorial Day travelers.  

“We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. “We’re projecting an additional one million travelers this holiday weekend compared to 2019, which not only means we’re exceeding pre-pandemic levels but also signals a very busy summer travel season ahead.”   

Road trips are expected to set a record. AAA projects 38.4 million people will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend, the highest number for that holiday since AAA began tracking in 2000. The number of drivers this year is up 4% compared to last year and 1.9% higher than in 2019. Traveling by car is appealing for many people because of the convenience and flexibility it provides. AAA car rental partner Hertz says Orlando, Denver, Atlanta, Boston and Las Vegas are the cities displaying the highest rental demand , with the busiest pick-up days projected to be Thursday, May 23 and Friday, May 24.  

This Memorial Day weekend drivers can expect similar gas prices as last year when the national average was roughly $3.57.  Pump prices rose this spring but have held somewhat steady in recent weeks. Prices may creep higher as the summer driving season gets underway. The wildcard remains the cost of oil, and unlike last year, there are now two wars – in the Middle East and Ukraine – that could roil the oil market.  

Airports are bracing for a spike in travelers. AAA expects 3.51 million air travelers this holiday weekend, an increase of 4.8% over last year and 9% jump compared to 2019. This will be the most crowded Memorial Day weekend at airports since 2005, when 3.64 million flew for the holiday as the travel industry finally rebounded post 9/11. This Memorial Day weekend, air ticket prices are comparable to last year. AAA booking data shows a 1% to 2% increase in prices for domestic flights. Several factors play into how much travelers pay for airfare, including destination, number of stops, and fare class. For example, passengers who book nonstop flights with seat selection and carry-on bags included will likely pay more than those who select basic economy with a layover.  

  Nearly two million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. AAA projects 1.9 million people will take these other modes of transportation, an increase of 5.6% compared to last year. “This category took the biggest hit during the pandemic with fewer people taking public transportation or not cruising at all,” Twidale said. “Now – five years later – we’re back to 2019 numbers. Travel demand has been soaring, and long holiday weekends create the perfect windows for getaways.”  

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro 

INRIX , a provider of transportation data and insights, says drivers leaving Thursday or Friday should hit the road early to avoid mixing with commuters. Travelers going back home on Sunday or Monday should avoid the afternoon hours when return trips will peak.   

“Travel times are expected to be up to 90% longer than normal. Travelers should stay up to date on traffic apps, 511 services, and local news stations to avoid sitting in traffic longer than necessary,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX.  

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located.   

For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT

Source: INRIX   

Source: INRIX  

Top Destinations 

This Memorial Day weekend, travelers are seeking theme parks and entertainment venues in Orlando, New York, Las Vegas, and Southern California. Seattle, Anchorage, and Vancouver rank high because of the popularity of Alaska cruises this time of year. Florida beaches and cruise ports will also be packed. European cities dominate the international list. The top 10 domestic and international destinations below are based on AAA booking data.  

Travel Trends   

As travelers make plans for summer and beyond, AAA Travel has identified the following trends:  

• Bucket Lists : Travelers taking once-in-a-lifetime trips  
• Milestones : Families booking anniversary, retirement, and family reunion trips  
• Asia : More travelers interested in visiting Asia, especially Japan   
• Solo Trips : More people, especially women, interested in traveling by themselves  
• Luxury Vacations : More travelers seeking high-end cruises and tours  
• Trains : Many travelers interested in rail vacations across New England, Canada, and Europe  
• Adventure in Nature : Travelers booking trips to Antarctica, Africa, and South Pacific  

  Travel Agent Survey  

A recent survey of AAA travel agents highlights topics travelers are frequently discussing when booking trips:  

• Travel Insurance : 51 % of agents say more travelers are interested in protecting their trips  
• 77% of agents say ocean cruises  
• 70% of agents say all-inclusive vacations  
• 67% of agents say river cruises  

Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology   

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.   

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM . The PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.  

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of April 15, 2024.   

*Memorial Day Holiday Travel Period   

For this forecast, the Memorial Day holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Thursday, May 23 to Monday, May 27, 2024.   

AAA Travel Agent Survey Methodology 

AAA clubs distributed surveys to a random sample of their travel agents between March 18 and March 29, 2024 to understand recent traveler trends over the past 60 days. 186 AAA agent responses were collected from 13 AAA clubs (representing 97% of AAA membership overall as of February 2024).  

About AAA    

Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA provides roadside assistance, travel, discounts, financial and insurance services to enhance the life journey of 64 million members across North America, including 57 million in the United States. To learn more about all AAA has to offer or to become a member, visit AAA.com.   

About S&P Global   S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow today. For more information, visit  www.spglobal.com .   

About DKSA    

DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually, and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company.   

About INRIX     

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.   

Memorial Day weekend 2024 travel will be busiest at these times: How to avoid traffic jams

If you’re traveling for Memorial Day weekend , be prepared to run into some crowds. The next holiday weekend – taking place May 25 to 27 – is slated to see a record-breaking number of travelers, according to AAA. 

A projected 43.8 million Americans are expected to pack their bags for trips over 50 miles or more over the holiday weekend – a 4% increase from last year and close to 2005’s previous record of 44 million. 

“We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel, in a press release. “We’re projecting an additional one million travelers this holiday weekend compared to 2019, which not only means we’re exceeding pre-pandemic levels but also signals a very busy summer travel season ahead.”

Both roads and airports will be extremely busy, with a historic number of roadtrippers since AAA began tracking data in 2000. That’s 38.4 million drivers, up 4% from last year. 

A predicted 3.51 million airline passengers are expected to hit the skies over the holiday weekend, a 4.8% increase from 2023. This will make for the most crowded Memorial Day weekend at airports since 2005, AAA said. 

Learn more: Best travel insurance

Here’s everything you need to know about traffic if you’re hoping for a Memorial Day weekend getaway.

Summer is just around the corner. Here's everything you need to know for your summertime trip.

What are the most popular destinations for Memorial Day weekend travel?

Most popular domestic destinations:

• Las Vegas, 
• Anaheim/Los Angeles

Most popular international destinations:

• Vancouver, Canada

What are the best times to drive for Memorial Day weekend? 

To avoid the worst traffic, drivers leaving for their long weekend trip on Thursday, May 23, and Friday, May 24, should hit the road before 11 a.m. or after 7 p.m. Thursday and 8 p.m. Friday. 

Travelers driving on Saturday, May 25, who leave before 1 p.m. and after 6 p.m., will be able to avoid the worst traffic jams. On Sunday, drivers should head out before 1 p.m. to avoid the worst congestion. 

Travelers returning home on Monday, May 27, should embark after 7 p.m. if they want to dodge peak traffic. 

What are the worst times to drive by car for Memorial Day weekend?

Travelers should expect the worst traffic on Thursday between noon and 6 p.m. 

Friday between noon and 7 p.m. since they’ll encounter commuter congestion as well. 

Over the weekend, peak traffic is anticipated to be between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. on Saturday and between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. on Sunday. 

On Memorial Day, drivers heading back home can expect peak traffic between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m., aka peak rush hour time.

Peak congestion times in major US cities

Travelers who are going through major metropolitan areas should unfortunately expect travel times to be up to 90% longer than usual, according to Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Travelers should stay up to date on traffic apps, 511 services, and local news stations to avoid sitting in traffic longer than necessary,” Pishue said in a statement. 

• Worst route: Atlanta to Savannah via I-16 E
• Worst day: Saturday, May 25
• Worst time: 4:45 p.m. 
• Estimated travel time: 5 hours, 31 minutes
• 54% increased travel time
• Worst route: Manchester to Boston via I-93 S
• Worst day: Sunday, May 26
• Worst time: 8:45 a.m.
• Estimated travel time: 1 hour, 48 minutes
• 50% increased travel time 
• Worst route: Milwaukee to Chicago via I-94 E 
• Worst time: 4:30 p.m.
• Estimated travel time: 2 hours, 25 minutes
• 27% increased travel time
• Worst route: Fort Collins to Denver via I-25 
• Worst time: 4:15 p.m.
• Estimated travel time: 1 hour, 24 minutes
• 56% increased travel time

Los Angeles

• Worst route: LA to Bakersfield via I-5 N 
• Worst day: Thursday, May 23
• Worst time: 6:15 p.m.
• Estimated travel time: 2 hours, 45 minutes
• 84% increased travel time
• Worst route: New York to Albany via I-87N 
• Worst time: 11:45 a.m. 
• Estimated travel time: 2 hours, 37 minutes

Philadelphia

• Worst route: Philadelphia to Baltimore/DC 
• Worst day: Friday, May 24
• Worst time: 7:30 a.m.
• 64% increased travel time

San Francisco

• Worst route:  San Francisco to Napa via I-80 E
• Worst time: 11 a.m.
• Estimated travel time: 1 hour, 34 minutes

Washington, D.C.

• Worst route: Washington, DC to Baltimore via Balt/Wash Pkwy N 
• Worst time: 2:15 p.m.
• Estimated travel time: 1 hour, 21 minutes
• 72% increased travel time

Kathleen Wong is a travel reporter for USA TODAY based in Hawaii. You can reach her at [email protected] .

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Moscow, Pullman baseball primed to make a splash at State

May 15—For the Moscow and Pullman baseball teams, a year like this has been building for a while.

Guys like Tyson Izzo, Connor Isakson and Levi Anderson for Moscow, or Caleb Northcroft, Calvin Heusser and Cade Hill for Pullman, have suited up for the Bears and Greyhounds since they were underclassmen, often battling against bigger and more experienced teams day in and day out, year after year.

Now, Moscow and Pullman are the veteran-laden squads heading into their respective Idaho Class 4A and Washington Class 2A state tournaments this week.

"For the most part, this has been a long ride for all of them," Moscow coach Griffin Rod said. "When you take on a bunch of young players, you do it out of necessity. And now this is the year where it really transitioned (to veteran players). It's gratifying for me, but I'm sure it's even more for them."

Kendrick enters its state tourney as district champs.

Here's a full look at state baseball for the area:

No. 2 seed Bears riding a big winning streak

Few teams are hotter than the Bears (17-7), who enter the 4A state tournament on a 10-game winning streak that includes a championship run in their district tournament.

No. 2 seed Moscow opens State against No. 7 seed Minico at 9 a.m. Pacific on Thursday at Vallivue High School in Caldwell.

It was a long, steady grind to get to this period of late-season dominance for the Bears. Last year, Moscow snuck into the state tournament with a losing record only to leave with an 0-2 mark at State.

That left the Bears — who returned all but one player from that team — wanting more this time around.

"When we started this season, we just had a renowned focus on growing our offense and creating a different type of team approach because we felt that was the piece that was missing," Rod said. "We had good pitching, we played great defense, we just weren't able to put up enough runs."

That all changed this season. Now, the Bears still boast their great pitching and defense, plus they can score runs in bunches.

Moscow is led by speedy leadoff man JP Breese (.447 average, 19 stolen bases), consistent cleanup hitter Anderson (.406 average, 29 RBI) and the powerful bat of Ethan McLaughlin (four home runs).

Izzo at catcher and Isakson in the outfield give the Bears some of the best fielders in the business. And Anderson (6-2, 0.83 ERA) also doubles as Moscow's ace pitcher.

Pullman will play defending champs

The No. 9 seed Greyhounds get a tough draw to start the Washington 2A state tourney.

Pullman (18-4) faces two-time defending state champ and eighth-seeded Tumwater (18-6) at 1 p.m. Saturday at Auburn High School.

But, like Moscow, the Greyhounds are hoping their veteran-laden roster will pay off in the postseason.

Pullman's roster features 10 total seniors and three juniors who have played varsity ball since their freshmen seasons.

The Greyhounds enter State as both the regular-season and the district tournament champ out of the 2A Greater Spokane League.

"They've played together for a long time. They all get along really well," Pullman coach Kevin Agnew said. "Every time we've needed somebody to step up, a different guy's done it, and hopefully that continues this weekend."

Pullman's strength starts with its pitching with the one-two punch of Northcroft (6-0, 0.62 ERA) and Heusser (7-1, 1.98 ERA).

"We've won a lot of doubleheaders this year because we have two good guys throwing for us," Agnew said.

The team's vocal leaders also include team captain Hill and Joey Hecker.

And no player has seen more plate appearances than Brayden Randall, who leads the team with 28 runs.

Whitepine League dominates 1A

No baseball league in Idaho has been more dominant over the last three decades than the Whitepine League.

The last time a WPL team didn't win the 1A state championship was 1998, when Greenleaf Friends took the crown — a school that has long since discontinued its baseball program.

The WPL's four teams vying for the title this year at Capital High School in Boise include Kendrick (15-7), the district champs; Troy (15-5), the two-time defending state champs; Potlatch (15-7) and Clearwater Valley (13-13).

Each of the last two years, it's been an all-WPL semifinals.

Players like Kendrick's Hunter Taylor (37 runs, 27 hits) and Troy's Makhi Durrett (.554 average, 31 hits, 20 RBI) are among the players to watch heading into State.

"I've been really proud of these guys, the way they've worked hard to be able to get there," Kendrick coach Kyle Jones said after the Tigers topped Troy in their district title game. "It's been a really cool ride and we're just excited to keep it rolling."

The opening round begins today with Kendrick facing Idaho City at 8 a.m. Pacific, Clearwater Valley facing Lighthouse Christian at 11 a.m. Pacific, Potlatch facing Glenns Ferry at 2 p.m. Pacific and Troy facing Vision Charter at 5 p.m. Pacific.

Wiebe may be contacted at (208) 848-2260, [email protected] or on Twitter @StephanSports.

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To get there, the Saudi airline sector is growing faster than almost anywhere on the planet.

New carrier Riyadh Air has grabbed  most of the attention . However, there’s another shift underway: The rise of the Saudi low-cost airline. 

Flyadeal is the budget subsidiary of Saudia, the country’s national carrier . Since launching in 2017, it’s grown to become one of the nation’s biggest low-cost operators. 

By the end of the decade, flyadeal is set to triple in size, from 32 planes today, to almost 100. Dozens of new destinations are set to be added to its route map, with international links into Europe and the Indian subcontinent. 

Trying to take this vision from spreadsheet to the skies is Steven Greenway, who was appointed flyadeal CEO in January. He was a founding member and CCO of Scoot, Singapore Airlines’ budget subsidiary , and also served as president of Swoop, a Canadian ultra-low-cost carrier that later merged with WestJet.

While the opportunities for Greenway are vast, so are the challenges. Adding huge capacity into a developing market in a short space of time can be difficult.

In the latest of our  Leaders of Travel: Skift C-Suite Series , we sit down with Greenway to find out how ambitions can translate to reality.

Which Planes Will Fuel the Expansion?

Skift: Before you joined flyadeal, there was a publicly shared goal of having around 100 planes in the fleet by the end of the decade. Is that still on the cards? 

Steven Greenway: Yes. The ambitious growth plan at flyadeal was the reason I was attracted to the airline. You’re going to see us leapfrog from 32 aircraft today to just shy of 100 in four or five years – more than tripling in size.

Our background is domestic flying and this still makes up around 80% of our capacity. Moving forward, the dynamics will change slightly because we’ll continue to grow domestically, but also branch out internationally. The airline is morphing into more of an equal blend of domestic and international flying.

We know that the additional 65 or so aircraft will be Airbus narrowbodies. Do you have any wiggle room regarding the size and variant? 

The order book is a mix of Airbus A320s and A321s. I can’t talk about what the actual mix is, but our A321s start arriving in 2026. It’s that well-worn strategy seen in other parts of the world wherever you have slot constraints where you deploy the A321 to give you extra capacity. But it’s also about enabling us to grow with what we have.

There are only so many times you can fly between Riyadh and Jeddah. We already have 22 flights a day. You can add another one every 15 minutes, you can use that slot for something else like an international service, or you can upgauge the size of the aircraft.

The mission set between the A320 and A321 is exactly the same, it’s just that we’re getting more seats. It offers flexibility in a part of the world where there’s a lot of seasonality. There are peaks and troughs in terms of demand. Of course, that’s true for a lot of markets, but particularly here in the Middle East.

Taking a look inside the plane, would you consider introducing a hybrid premium product like we’ve seen at other low-cost carriers?

I’ve worked at airlines that have done both. However, in my mind the premium cabin really only comes into play after four or five hours. We’re comfortable with the product we have. We’re constantly upgrading the seats, installing huge overhead bins, and offering in-seat power. When you consider all of these things combined, there’s enough there that people are reasonably comfortable for the mission sets that we have for the aircraft.

An Increasingly Familiar Business Model

How responsive is the Saudi market, and consumers more generally in the region, to the low-cost carrier (LCC) concept? 

Saudi Arabia is as commercialized as any country in Europe. They get what the trade-off is. You have airlines like Wizz coming into the country, Air Arabia, you have us. We all have similarly common practices with unbundled fares, so it’s nothing unfamiliar to this market. 

You have Saudia at the top offering full service, you have flynas in the middle doing a hybrid, and you have us doing a pure LCC play. People have choices in the market, which is great. They get what the proposition is, it’s not something that you have to educate them on per se. 

Are there any areas where further progress could be made?

I think the things that we need to improve are more around customer service and expectations. In some countries and regions, online check-in can be between 90-99%. It’s not here. Online check-in is not anywhere near as high as we would like, but it is progressing in the right way.

People also still carry a lot of baggage. For example, in Europe, people are able to survive with a backpack for the weekend because they want to save the money. That’s their choice. Here it’s a slightly different market, but it is adapting.

Flyadeal’s Growth Trajectory 

Flyadeal plans to operate to more than 100 destinations by 2030. What are the key markets and geographies to watch? 

The country is opening up for both domestic and inbound tourism. What you have is Saudis discovering Saudi Arabia. It’s not that they couldn’t travel around before, it’s that there simply wasn’t that mobility five or ten years ago.

I read the other day that Riyadh to Jeddah is probably going to be the busiest route in the world in the next couple of years – it’s come out of nowhere.

But there’s a lot more expansion to do within Saudi Arabia, especially when you look at the mega projects that are opening up. One good example is the Red Sea resorts. A new airport has opened there and it’s not even on our route map at the moment. It’s certainly something that we’ll be looking at over the next couple of years.

And what about your international ambitions? 

India is of incredible interest to us. The UAE and the Middle East in general are still underserved in terms of points into and out of Saudi Arabia. We also have to consider the secondary points. Everyone speaks about Riyadh and Jeddah, but what Dammam, what about Madinah? For example, we might already be operating to Dubai from Riyadh but we’re not from Madinah. So we’ll start joining the dots on that type of route as well. 

And then there’s southern and southeast Europe. We really haven’t touched on that except for some summer seasonal flying, which has been successful. But getting in there and branching into that market is a huge opportunity for us as well.

We’ve seen other low-cost airlines in the region and further afield open foreign subsidiaries. Is this of interest to you?

Never say never, but it’s really not on our radar. The reason is we believe in so much potential in Saudi Arabia that we don’t have to go fishing. Typically it happens when you’re a city-state, you’ve got no domestic market, you’re a pure international player – therefore you’re looking for other markets to open up. We’re not in that position.

We have a 10-year fleet plan, we know where the aircraft are going to go – obviously subject to change – and all of those are going into the Saudi market, either domestically or internationally.

The Future of Flying

Before joining flyadeal you were involved in the AI space. How much scope is there for this technology in the airline industry?

I think there’s huge potential. The question is does it replace human thinking and decision making? Or does it supplement and support and provide insight? I think there’s a lot of hype out there and that question still hasn’t been answered. I see AI as a companion to decision-making to support a whole range of factors.

Everything from call centers to network planning to operations control. We’re putting in scenarios, and we’re getting back a range of options that we can make decisions on as a business – that’s where we are experimenting as an airline. 

And finally, what are your key trends to watch for the coming year?

The continued growth, or boom, in Saudi Arabia. Watch how it manifests itself. You’ll also continue to see the Kingdom shape what its ambitions are. Keep an eye out for that because some of the things that are coming online, or to be announced, are absolutely phenomenal. I can’t speak about them, but I certainly know what’s coming and I think this is going to be a very interesting market.

This interview was edited for clarity and length.

Read more from our new  Leaders of Travel: Skift C-Suite Series   here .

Airlines Sector Stock Index Performance Year-to-Date

What am I looking at?  The performance of airline sector stocks within the  ST200 . The index includes companies publicly traded across global markets including network carriers, low-cost carriers, and other related companies.

The Skift Travel 200 (ST200)  combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars into a single number.  See more airlines sector financial performance . 

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Tags: airlines , flyadeal , low-cost carriers , middle east , saudi , saudi arabia , saudia airlines

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Satellite Images Reveal Where Russian Nukes Could Be Stored in Belarus

A New York Times analysis shows security upgrades unique to Russian nuclear storage facilities at a Cold War-era munitions depot.

By Christoph Koettl

The New York Times, Source: Maxar Technologies

A newly added air defense system.

A distinctive security checkpoint.

And a triple fence around a bunker.

These new security features and other upgrades at a munitions depot in central Belarus reveal that Russia is building facilities there that could house nuclear warheads. If Russia does move weapons to this location, it would mark the first time it has stored them outside the country since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia already has nuclear warheads on its own soil that are close to Ukraine and NATO countries, but by basing some in Belarus, the Kremlin appears to be trying to accentuate its nuclear threat and bolster its nuclear deterrent.

Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, made reference to such a site early last year, saying Russia would soon be completing the construction of “special storage for tactical nuclear weapons” in Belarus.

The New York Times analyzed satellite imagery and photos, and spoke with nuclear weapons and arms control experts, to track the new construction, which started in March 2023.

The site is 120 miles north of the Ukrainian border at a military depot next to the town of Asipovichy. Some of the recently built structures there have features that are unique to nuclear storage facilities at bases inside Russia. For example, a new, highly secure area is surrounded by three layers of fencing, in addition to the existing security perimeter of the entire base. Another telltale sign is a covered loading area connected to what appears to be a concealed Soviet-era underground bunker.

Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who has analyzed the site , said that the nuclear developments in Belarus “appear designed to unnerve NATO’s easternmost member states, but will not give Russia a significant new military advantage in the region.”

There is no consensus definition of a tactical nuclear weapon, as opposed to longer-range strategic arms. But Russia defines tactical arms as those with a range of up to 300 kilometers, about 186 miles. Because nuclear programs are so secretive, it’s possible there are other locations in Belarus where Russia is storing warheads — and the Kremlin may have even moved some to the Asipovichy location, though all indications suggest otherwise. Both the Russian and Belarusian ministries of defense did not respond to requests for comment.

Nuclear warheads are typically stored close to military bases with the capability to deliver the weapons. The suspected nuclear storage site is in the same town as Belarus’s Iskander missiles, which can be used to launch nuclear or conventional warheads. Russia delivered the Iskanders to Belarus in 2022.

Over the past week, both Russia and Belarus have made statements about nuclear weapons drills. On Monday, the Kremlin said it would hold military exercises with troops based near Ukraine to train for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. On Tuesday, the Belarusian defense minister told state media that an inspection had begun of the Iskander forces and other nuclear weapons delivery systems.

Russia’s comments immediately provoked condemnation by the U.S. and NATO for “irresponsible rhetoric.”

“We are reviving Cold War practices, hence we are reviving Cold War risks,” said Jeffrey Lewis , an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California.

In 2023, as new fences went up to create a higher-security area at the Asipovichy base, a covered area was revamped, including a truck loading dock that now has a new roof, shielding any activities from surveillance above. These renovations are consistent with structures seen at other former Soviet nuclear storage sites. Seen below, a matching dock in Hungary contains an internal entrance to an old, tree-covered underground bunker.

William Moon , an independent consultant and former official with the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency , told The Times that the design of the Asipovichy upgrades, with triple fencing, one main entry and an emergency exit, resembles the Russian nuclear warhead storage sites he has seen in person. Mr. Moon, who worked on nuclear warhead security with Russia, said, “When we were working with their standards, they would require that third layer fencing.”

He said that in addition to added security, he would also expect separate housing for the Russian military unit that remains in control of the nuclear warheads. Three new buildings, which appear to be either for administrative use or barracks, have been set up in the depot entrance area, and an additional area is currently being bulldozed.

At the entrance to the triple-fenced zone, a security checkpoint — a covered inspection area next to a guardhouse — was added in 2023. These types of structures have become fixtures over the last two decades at nuclear sites inside Russia, according to Michael Duitsman , a colleague of Mr. Lewis’s at the Middlebury Institute. They are a “ unique feature not seen at other Russian bases ,” he said.

Security checkpoints fit a distinct pattern

Asipovichy, Belarus

Novgorod Oblast, Russia

Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

Belgorod Oblast, Russia

Sources: Analysis by Michael Duitsman, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey; Maxar Technologies; Google Earth

By The New York Times

In recent weeks, construction began on what may be new buildings. “The details are still uncertain, but construction has clearly entered a new phase,” said Mr. Kristensen.

An air defense system has also been brought in to protect the site. It was initially spotted camouflaged in mid-2023, including through radar satellite imagery provided by the space company Umbra . Since September, one of the air defense vehicles has been deployed in a field about a mile from the bunker. Asipovichy is part of nuclear history. The same site that Russia is building out today was likely used to store nuclear weapons during the Cold War. The Soviet Union began basing nuclear missile brigades in and around the town in the 1960s, according to William Alberque, who has been a director at the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and a Pentagon and NATO official. It also stationed a military unit that managed nuclear weapons at an artillery munitions storage site, he said. After the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, all nuclear weapons were removed from Belarus.

Declassified U.S. intelligence satellite photos of the Asipovichy site taken during the Cold War appear to show these two functions. The southern section was thought to be for conventional weapons, with clearings and many storage buildings. In a separate, tree-covered northern section, four bunkers are visible, with a walled compound farther north — the exact spot where the current construction can be seen.

Asipovichy Military Depot | 1984

Source: United States Geological Survey

While the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty prohibits the transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear states, it doesn’t ban housing nuclear weapons abroad if control is maintained by the country that owns them. Under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement , the U.S. currently has nuclear weapons in some member countries.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson would not say if the United States was monitoring any particular site in Belarus, but said the department is keeping a close eye on the situation in order “to ensure Russia maintains control of its weapons in the event of any deployment to Belarus and upholds its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.” An April 2024 State Department report said that the U.S. would not change its nuclear posture in response to the developments in Belarus.

Julian E. Barnes and Dmitriy Khavin contributed reporting. Phil Robibero , Blacki Migliozzi , David Botti and Alexander Cardia contributed visual production.

Christoph Koettl is a Times reporter on the Visual Investigations team . More about Christoph Koettl

Surfers' deaths in Mexico 'eerily' similar to San Diego couple's murders: 'Anyone can be killed for anything'

T he case of three surfers killed in Mexico "is eerily similar" to the murders of a San Diego couple in the same Mexican state four years ago, a private investigator said. 

Jay Armes III, who specializes in kidnappings in Mexico and works cases all over the world, immediately remembered Ian Hirschsohn and Kathy Harvey, a couple in their 70s who were slain in their longtime vacation home in El Socorrito, a tiny beach town in Baja California. 

Their bodies were dumped down a well, just like Australian brothers Jake and Callum Robinson, and American Jack Carter Rhoad, who were killed near Ensenada in Baja California during a carjacking over the weekend. 

"The story is they (the suspects) wanted the tires, not even the truck," Armes said. "They burned the truck. That's how little regard for life there is in these remote areas of Mexico. Anyone can be killed for anything."

MEXICAN AUTHORITIES REVEAL BIZARRE REASON THEY BELIEVE AUSTRALIANS, AMERICAN WERE MURDERED ON SURFING VACATION

The San Diego couple were killed during a home invasion by a man who stole their bedding, according to a 2021 statement by Baja California Attorney General’s Office, which said they believed the burglar thought the home was empty. 

READ ON THE FOX NEWS APP

He was likely startled when he encountered Hirschsohn and Harvey before fatally stabbing them both and dumping their bodies, the Mexican prosecutor's office said at the time. 

TRIPLE MURDER SUSPECT IN MEXICO SURFER DEATHS ALLEGEDLY CONFESSED TO GIRLFRIEND HE KILLED ‘3 GRINGOS’: REPORT

They were ultimately found in a well "in the middle of nowhere," Hirschsohn’s daughter, Ava Setzer, told The San Diego Union Tribune in a January 2021 story. 

That case, Armes believes, was on the minds of Mexican authorities, as their search for the missing surfers included area wells along the country's northwest coast. 

All three victims were found in a 50-foot well with gunshots to their heads, according to Mexican authorities. 

A fourth, unrelated victim – a woman whose name wasn't released – was found with the U.S. and Australian victims. Prosecutors haven't ruled out that the same suspects killed her. 

"I'm not taking away anything from good police work, but I think the idea to look in the well came from that case," Armes told Fox News Digital. "At least they used their heads and made the effort to look. The extra body that was found was likely another one of their victims."

FOURTH BODY FOUND IN SEARCH FOR US AND AUSTRALIAN SURFERS WHO MYSTERIOUSLY VANISHED IN MEXICO

Rhoad was slain just three months before he was going to tie the knot with his sweetheart, Natalie Weirtz, in August. Their wedding information was on Zola, which has since been taken down. 

"In the wake of the heartbreaking loss of Carter Rhoad, Callum Robinson and Jake Robinson, our hearts ache with grief for their families, friends and community," Rhoad's and Weirtz's "close friend," Aubrey Byers, wrote in a GoFundMe post. 

"Their presence brought immeasurable joy, love, and kindness to those around them, leaving a mark on our lives."

Armes said there are so many beautiful tourist attractions in Mexico, but many destinations are either brutally violent cartel battlegrounds, or remote areas where people "just vanish."

"And most are never found," Armes said. 

TROPICAL RESORTS POPULAR WITH AMERICANS NO LONGER ‘OFF LIMITS’ FOR CARTEL KILLERS: ‘THE RULES HAVE CHANGED’

The surfers went missing last weekend and were found within days, a turnaround that's almost unheard of in Mexico, according to Armes. 

Three suspects were identified, and two are being held on drug charges after law enforcement allegedly found them in possession of meth.

WATCH: INTERVIEW WITH ONE OF SURFER'S FRIENDS

How quickly the dead surfers' bodies were found sparked protests from locals and loved ones of the tens of thousands who are still missing. 

The Mexican government reported in March there were about 100,000 people missing, according to a report by The New York Times, but the United Nations believes that's well under the real total. 

AMERICAN KIDNAPPED IN MEXICO, LEFT TO DIE IN JUNGLE WITH EYES, WRISTS TAPED

"It is very difficult, except for high-profile cases like the one that just happened, for the authorities to immediately trigger the search," Adriana Jaén told The Times. 

Jaén, a Mexico-based sociologist who helps families missing loved ones, said cases like the missing surfers are essentially salt in the wounds. 

"The message those of us who work on these issues get is that there are lives that matter, and there are others that don't," she said. 

Two male suspects were allegedly caught with methamphetamines, according to Mexican authorities, and are being held pending that case. A woman, one of the suspect's girlfriends, is also a person of interest. 

She allegedly sold out her boyfriend, Jesús Gerardo Garcia Cota, in court on Wednesday, according to a report by the BBC. 

She said Garcia Cota allegedly showed up at her house on April 28 and told her that he killed "three gringos," a slang term that describes English-speaking foreigners. 

Fox News' Stepheny Price and Bradford Betz , as well as The Associated Press, contributed to this report. 

Original article source: Surfers' deaths in Mexico 'eerily' similar to San Diego couple's murders: 'Anyone can be killed for anything'