pga tour horses for courses valspar

Valspar Championship 2024: Picks, One-And-Done Pick, Head-To-Heads

The PGA TOUR concludes its Florida Swing this week with the Valspar Championship 2024 at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Two years ago, when I was winning money betting on the TOUR, I hit an outright on Sam Burns in the Valspar. I bricked the Valspar last year even though all four of my guys made the cut. 

READ ‘Par Talk’ : Scottie Scheffler Loves The Opportunity, Xander Schauffele Hates It, And The Players Delivering What Is Needed

Last week was a profitable one for me at THE PLAYERS Champion. Albeit a slight profit. I added +0.91 units (u) to my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll but I'm still -18.18u on the season. The highlights of my PLAYERS betting card include a 3-0 performance in tournament matchup bets and Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry, and Doug Ghim all cashing top-20 bets. 

Since I've never golfed a hole in my life and I'm still relatively new to the sport, I spend a lot of time researching these courses. I'm not going to BS you guys into thinking I'm an expert. Instead, I'll share the Copperhead Course breakdown from Betsperts' golf analyst, Ron Klos. 

My gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) because I'd be sick to my stomach if one of my guys finished inside the top five and I didn't profit. Is this the right way to bet golf? I don't know. Regardless, shop around for placement bets because most legal U.S. sportsbooks apply "dead heat" rules for ties. 

Valspar Championship 2024 ‘Horses for the Course’ 

Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour. 

Brian Harman

The 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year is streaky and he is playing well coming into the Valspar. Harman finished T2 at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T12 at the Genesis Scottish Open in his three starts before winning the 151st Open Championship. The Bulldog tied for 12th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago and tied for second at last week's PLAYERS Championship. 

Also, Harman pops on my model and his game fits this course, even though he has three missed cuts with just one T5 in his four starts at the Valspar. Harman is third in total SG at comp courses to Innisbrook, 10th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Poa trivialis (overseed) greens, 12th in Par 5 scoring, and 17th in SG: Approach (APP), over the last 30 rounds, according to Bet The Number . 

Brian Harman watches his ball after an approach shot from the pine straw at the 18th hole in THE PLAYERS Championship 2024. (Bob Self/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY NETWORK)

There are five golfers with odds of +2200 or shorter at DraftKings Sportsbook. The other four are Xander Schauffele (+650), Sam Burns (+1400), Justin Thomas (+1400), and Jordan Spieth (+2000). Even though Burns went back-to-back at Innisbrook in 2021-22, I like Harman the most at this price range. Again, Harman won The Open this past summer and is in better current form. 

The first thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Brian Harman

• Win: +2200 at DraftKings (0.91u to win 20u)
• Top-10: +200 at BetMGM (0.59u to win 1.18u)

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Min Woo Lee

On one hand, distance off-the-tee (OTT) is mitigated at Innisbrook by the 12 doglegs. On the other, ball-striking power is still a strength at this course because of all the long APP shots and the five Par 3s that are 195+ yards. In Min Woo's case, he's one of the most powerful ball strikers in the world. Over the last 30 rounds, Lee is third in this field for ball speed and 11th in SG: OTT, per Bet The Number . 

For whatever reason, Min Woo sucks with his irons and ranks 109th in SG: APP on TOUR this season. Yet, he's able to score anyway because Lee crushes the ball OTT and is nasty with his flat-stick, especially on tough courses like Innisbrook. The 25-year-old Aussie has picked up strokes on the greens in seven of his eight career majors with shot-link data, per DataGolf.com. 

Min Woo Lee lines up his putt on the 17th green during the third round of The Open Championship 2023 at Royal Liverpool in England. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

With that in mind, Lee plays well on tougher courses. He tied for second at the Cognizant Classic earlier this month at one of the hardest courses on TOUR, PGA National. Finally, remember how I was saying the Par 5s at Innisbrook aren't reachable with two strokes? Well, Min Woo is one of the few golfers in the world who might be able to hit the green in two strokes on those Par 5s. 

The second thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Min Woo Lee

• Win: +3500 at Bet365 (0.57u to win 20u)
• Top-20: +150 at BetMGM (0.93u to win 1.4u)

This is going to blow up in my face. Ghim has never won on the PGA TOUR in 123 career starts and has missed the cut 56 times. That said, Ghim is playing his a** off lately. He ranks fifth in my 30-round model at Bet The Number . Doug cashed a top-20 bet for me at last week's PLAYERS Championship when he tied for 16th. 

Ghim finished T16 at the Cognizant, T8 at the Mexico Open, T12 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open in his four starts before THE PLAYERS. He's gained strokes in both OTT and on APP in six straight events. Innisbrook has narrow fairways and Ghim is 12th on TOUR this season in driving accuracy. 

Finally, Doug leads the PGA TOUR in Par 5 scoring this season. At difficult courses such as Innisbrook, golfers must score at these Par 5s. As long as he can save par at the tougher holes, Ghim should be able to score enough on the Par 5s to be on the first page of the leaderboard at the Valspar. 

The third thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Doug Ghim 

• Win: +4500 at Bet365 (0.44u to win 20u)
• Top-20: +188 at BetMGM (0.77u to win 1.44u)

Maverick McNealy

This is a guy I've never bet on, so I'm excited to lose money on a new golfer this week. Yay!! Just kidding, kind of. But, what draws me to Maverick at the Valspar is his insane short game. Over the last 30 rounds, McNealy ranks second in this field for SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) and 12th in SG: Putting on overseed greens.  

Furthermore, it's harder to hit greens in regulation at the Copperhead Course. Because of this, I like that Maverick can "get up and down" to save par when he misses the green. He gained 7.9 strokes ARG last week at THE PLAYERS en route to a T9. McNealy hasn't missed a cut yet this season and has a T13 in Mexico and a T6 in Phoenix as well. 

Also, Maverick is flushing it with the driver recently. Over his last 24 rounds, McNealy is hitting the ball five mph harder than the TOUR average and gaining 0.39 strokes OTT per round vs. the field. Like Min Woo, Maverick's issue is his iron-play. But, he can save par or even score from off the green if he's errant with his approach shots. 

The fourth thoroughbred for Innisbrook: Maverick McNealy

• Win: +6000 at Bet365 (0.33u to win 20u)
• Top-20: +200 at BetMGM (0.67u to win 1.33u)

Head-to-Head Matchups at DraftKings

Nick taylor (-115) over adam hadwin.

I’m prioritizing recent form over course history here. Hadwin won the 2017 Valspar with a T12 in 2018 and T7 in 2022. But, Hadwin missed the cut in four of his other five starts at Innisbrook including last season and a T71 in the other. Adding to that, Taylor is on a heater and ranks fifth in this field for total strokes gained over the last 20 rounds, per Bet the Number . 

Taylor was T7 at the Sony Open in January, won the WM Phoenix Open last month, finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two starts ago, and T26 at THE PLAYERS Championship last week. He would’ve finished higher on that leaderboard but Taylor shot a 76 (+4) in the third round. Nick has picked up strokes with his irons and putter in six of his last seven starts, per Fantasy National . 

Hadwin on the other hand, has been up and down lately. Adam has lost strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts and has missed the cut in two of his last four events. Finally, approach stats are the most predictive in golf. Over the last 30 rounds, Hadwin ranks 107th in SG: APP and Taylor is sixth, according to Bet The Number . 

BET 1.15u on Nick Taylor (-115) to beat Adam Hadwin 

Jordan spieth (+160) over xander schauffele .

You can tell by the odds that Xander is the better golfer currently. I’m not arguing otherwise. Heck, Schauffele is my top-ranked golfer in this field by the stats. However, he took a tough loss last week at THE PLAYERS, tying for second place when he was the favorite on the back-nine to win. I’m not convinced that Xander will be locked in for this non-"signature event" and non-major. 

Spieth missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week, so we are buying him at a low point. But, Jordan is having a good season. Spieth was third at The Sentry in January and T6 in Phoenix last month. He was playing well at the Genesis Invitational before getting disqualified for an error on his scorecard. 

Jordan Spieth looks over the 11th green during the 2018 Valspar Championship tournament at Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Golfers keep their drivers in the bag at the Copperhead Course because of all the 12 doglegs. The driver is Spieth’s weakest club, so Innisbrook is a good course for him. Last season, Jordan was T3 in the Valspar and Xander was T12. All the laying up forces long approach shots into the green. Spieth is second in the field for birdies-or-better when "going for the green" over the last 30 rounds, per Bet The Number .

BET 0.85u on Jordan Spieth (+160) to beat Xander Schauffele

Valspar championship 2024 one-and-done pick: min woo lee .

Through the first 10 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm tied for 462nd out of 4,400 entries with $6,336,494 collected. If my one-and-done league ended today, I would've profited $240 on my $200 entry. 

Previous Picks

• J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
• Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
• Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
• Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
• Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
• Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
• Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
• Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
• Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
• Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000

Min Woo Lee plays from the 18th fairway during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2024. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)

As you can see, I already used Schauffele and Spieth in this league. I'm using Lee here because he's got the game to win at any course on TOUR. Plus, I want to save Harman for a bigger event such as the Travelers Championship, which he plays well in. Since this is a non-"signature event", I'm willing to gamble a little bit more with my one-and-done pick. 

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season. 

Valspar Championship Dark Horses: Lashley Being Overlooked?

By derek helm | mar 15, 2023.

Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming PGA DFS slate. 

This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 Valspar Championship

A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.

We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.

I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.

*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.

2023 Valspar Championship: Favorite Chalk Plays

Jordan spieth ($10,600).

DK Ownership: 20-22% – Other than the Genesis where the putter failed him, Spieth has looked good over the last month. He came 19th last week at the PLAYERS, 4th at the Arnold Palmer, and 6th at the Waste Management.

He’s been great with his irons gaining strokes on approach in four straight tournaments. He’s 15th in strokes gained approach and 4th from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds.

Spieth missed the cut at the Valspar Championship in 2018 but seems to be a fit for the Copperhead Course. He came 18th in 2016, won the Valspar in 2015, and came 20th in 2014.

Justin Suh ($8,900)

DK Ownership: 20-22% – Suh has played very well during the Florida swing. He came in 5th place at the Honda, 24th at the Arnold Palmer, and 6th last week at the PLAYERS.

Suh has gained strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He’s 6th in strokes gained approach, 2nd on par 3s from 200-225 yards, and 4th in good drives gained over the last 24 rounds.

2023 Valspar Championship: Favorite Dark Horses

Jhonattan vegas ($7,700).

DK Ownership: 10-12% – Vegas has made the cut the last two years at the Valspar Championship. He came 27th last year gaining five strokes on approach.

Vegas missed the cut last week at the PLAYERS but has been good otherwise in 2023. He has three top-25 finishes in his five tournaments.

He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight straight tournaments. He’s 2nd in strokes gained off the tee and 7th in par 5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.

Nate Lashley ($7,600)

DK Ownership: 8-10% – Lashley is playing well so far in 2023. He’s made the cut in five of six tournaments and has gained strokes on approach in five of six as well. He came 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open, 20th at the Genesis, and 7th at the Sony.

He came 27th at the Valspar Championship last year gaining strokes off the tee and on approach.

He’s 2nd in good drives gained, 2nd on approaches from 175-200 yards, and 11th in par 5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.

Ben Martin ($7,400)

DK Ownership: 8-10% – Martin played ok at the PLAYERS but previously came 5th at the Honda and 13th at Pebble Beach.

His irons have carried him recently. He’s 7th on approach and 13th from 175-200 yards over the last 24 rounds.

He’s made the cut his last two times at the Valspar and gained four strokes on approach here last year.

Next. FedEx Cup Watch: Rahm maintains top spot, Spieth on the outside?. dark

Tyler Duncan ($7,300)

DK Ownership: 6-8% –  Duncan has gained strokes off the tee in four straight tournaments. He’s gained at least 4 strokes off the tee in his last two tournaments.

Duncan is 1st in good drives gained and 7th in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds.

He’s made three straight cuts coming 54th at the PLAYERS, but 3rd at the Honda and 33rd at the Genesis. He’s played well the last two times at the Valspar Championship coming 25th and 39th.

Valspar Championship Picks and Predictions (Expect a Justin Thomas Bounce Back)

Breaking down everything you need to know to bet on this week's PGA Tour event, the Valspar Championship at Copperhead Course, including the three best bets to win.

By Iain MacMillan | Mar 20, 2024, 3:37 PM EDT

Scottie Scheffler has further cemented his status as the best golfer on the planet by winning the second-straight PGA Tour event while also successfully defending his Players Championship.

This week, the PGA Tour wraps up its Florida Swing with the Valspar Championship at Copperhead course. Scheffler isn't in the field this week which gives a chance for the rest of the golfers competing to actually get a win.

Let's dive into the tournament and I'll break down my three best outright bets to win.

If you want to bet on the Valspar Championship, be sure to click the link below to sign up for an account at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you do, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.

Valspar Championship odds

Valspar championship how to watch.

• Thursday: 2 pm - 6 pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Friday: 2 pm - 6 pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Saturday: 1 pm - 3 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3-6 pm EST (NBC)
• Sunday: 1 pm - 3 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3-6 pm EST (NBC)

Valspar Championship purse

• Date: Thursday, March 21 - Sunday, March 24
• Purse: $8.4 million ($1.512 million winner's share)
• Defending champion: Taylor Moore

Valspar Championship notable golfers

Xander Schauffele : Fresh off his runner-up finish at The Players Championship, Xander Schauffele enters this week's event as the betting favorite. He's been playing some great golf this season and now he returns to an event where he finished 12th the only time he competed here back in 2022.

Sam Burns: If there's one "horse for the course" this week, it's Sam Burns, who won this event in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022 and then followed it up with a 6th place finish last year. He's not in great form, finishing 45th and 30th the last two events, but he should feel confident this week.

Valspar Championship picks

Justin thomas +1400.

Justin Thomas missed the cut last week but let's dive into his two rounds a little bit further. If you do, you'll see that it was due to an uncharacteristically horrible week with his short game. In fact, he led the entire field in strokes gained: approach at +2.51 per round. That's the best week he's had with his irons since the WGC Workday Championship back in February of 2021.

Now, he gets to palce in a weak field at an event where he's finished inside the top 10 in each of the past two years. If he can keep his irons hot and figure out his short game, he's going to be a strong candidate to win this week.

Brian Harman +2200

In my opinion, Brian Harman is the no-brainer bet of the week. Copperhead Course is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour's schedule where short hitters aren't at a significant disadvantage and there's no better short-hitter than Harman, especially given his recent form. He finished T2 at The Players last week and 12th the week before. His irons have been completely dialed in as well, gaining +2.48 strokes with his approach game per round.

As a cherry on top, he has a fifth place finish here two seasons ago. So, we have a great course fit, fantastic recent form, and a solid course history. That checks all three boxes we're looking for when betting a winner.

I'll absolutely bet on Harman at +2200.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500

We're sticking to a theme here. Justin Thomas led the field last week in strokes gained: approach, Brian Harman finished second, and now we're also betting on the golfer who ranked third in that stat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout. He's another golfer very similar to Harman in that he's a shorter hitter that's great around on the greens and whose iron play has improved drastically of late.

He's also off a T13 finish last week, but he doesn't have the course history here that some other golfers do. His only start at the Valspar resulted in a 62nd place finish in 2022.

Still, he has a great course fit and is in solid form ahead of this week. If you're looking for a dark horse in the mid-range of the odds list, Bezuidenhout is your guy.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here !

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Betting Analysis

Valspar Championship picks 2023: Is it finally Tommy's time?

As fun as the Players Championship is to watch and cover, we speak for the entire gambling community when we say that is the worst event to bet on. The volatility never ceases to amaze. Make a note for next year: whoever you think is going to play well, don’t bet them. Whoever you think is going to play poorly, hammer away.

We’re happily on to the Valspar Championship, a tournament Sam Burns is looking to win for the third consecutive year. Our experts believe that’s an unlikely outcome, which has them looking at ball-strikers like Burns who are in much better form coming in.

RELATED: Want to become a better golf bettor? Here are the stats you should be paying attention to

To help your best bets, we’ve assembled the best collection of experts in the industry—which consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from Innisbrook; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com ; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com ; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authors. Scroll down to read our best bets for the 2023 Valspar Championship.

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 Valspar Championship.

RELATED: Valspar Championship DFS picks 2023: How close is Jordan Spieth?

Valspar Championship picks 2023: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week : Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, BetMGM) — The Englishman is due to pull off a win soon and his iron play has been very sharp of late.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst : Jordan Spieth (12-1, DraftKings) — The rough is up, wind is coming, and we need a player who scores enough with hot irons while saving himself regularly enough to stay afloat. Spieth’s won here in the past, has gained against the field in his past four starts (all elevated events) and has finally started to see his putter come around.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor : Matt Fitzpatrick (15-1, FanDuel) — Fitzpatrick finished T-5 here last year and has the game to grind out a win at this track. The irons are down right now, but he’s the deserved favorite behind Justin Thomas for the week. One of the few values pre-Keegan withdraw, his odds remained at +1500, so it’s an even better play now.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder : Adam Hadwin (25-1, DraftKings) — Hadwin is fresh off a T-13 finish at the Players Championship in which he gained 6.80 strokes ball-striking – per the RickRunGood.com golf database. That marks his fourth top-20 finish in his last seven starts and he hasn’t even putted very well recently. He’s lost two-plus strokes putting in each of his last three starts which is very uncharacteristic for Hadwin. Now he heads back to Innisbrook as a past Champion (2017) and looking to improve on his T-7 from last year.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor : Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, BetMGM) — Tommy Lad plays his best golf on tough courses, and aside from Sam Burns shooting 17-under last year, we typically get tougher conditions at Innisbrook. Fleetwood is ranked second in weighted strokes gained tee-to-green per round, per RickRunGood.com. Plus, his short game is objectively great, which is a skill you need when you miss the greens around here.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer : Gary Woodland (45-1, Bet365) — Hard to believe it’s been 12 years since Woodland captured his first tour win at Valspar, then known as the Transitions Championship (what a time to be alive. Shoutout Kenny Perry). Let’s see if Woodland can recapture some of that magic this week. After a poor ball-striking week at Bay Hill, the 2019 U.S. Open winner got back on track at TPC Sawgrass, where he gained 4.1 strokes on approach and 3.3 off-the-tee. Why did he finish 54th, then, you ask? He putted horribly, like he so often does. Putting is much less important at Innisbrook then it is elsewhere, though, hence Woodland’s maiden win coming here.

Note: Gdula picked Keegan Bradley to win before Bradley withdrew on Wednesday.

Past results: Ladies and gentlemen, we are officially heating up. We cashed our third straight winner at the Honda Classic with Christopher Powers backing Chris Kirk at 30-1. That continued a streak that started with Brandon Gdula correctly predicting Scottie Scheffler’s win at the WM Phoenix Open (13-1) and Rick Gehman hitting Jon Rahm at the Genesis Invitational (+750). Add in Gdula and Stephen Hennessey’s Tony Finau (16-1) winner at the Houston Open in the Fall and that gives the panel four outright hits on the 2022-’23 season. Let’s keep it rolling at the Valspar.

Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

Valspar Championship picks 2023: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Caddie: Ben Griffin (50-1, DraftKings) — Griffin is a great Bermuda putter and that is super important around these parts.

Mayo: Garrick Higgo (90-1, DraftKings) — If you’ve followed Higgo for any time you know the streaks. The ball-striking has been on point all year, his touch remains some of the best on the planet, and the putter goes like a yo yo. He’s going to make bogeys. Bad ones. But he’s also one of the few players in this field who can go nuclear and reel off six birdies in a row while the field is sweating 10-foot par putts. Bet on the talent.

Gdula: Sam Ryder (100-1, FanDuel) — Ryder is a standout in two of the four strokes-gained stats: approach and putting. Those are the two areas in which you can gain the most strokes per week, so that’s a great long-shot recipe.

Gehman: Dylan Wu (100-1, DraftKings) — Let’s go way down the betting board to find Dylan Wu who is hitting the cover off the ball these days. He’s gained 15.61 strokes ball-striking over his last four events, which only accounts for 10 measured rounds. That’s +1.561 per round which is similar to Collin Morikawa’s 36-round baseline. He contended (T-10) at the Honda Classic and performed well (T-35) at the Players. Now he’ll get to tackle a much weaker field this week.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (50-1, DraftKings) — We have to run this back. Griffin has been so consistently good, and obviously last week was taxing for him, but he’s playing the best golf of his life. He’s in the top 10 in this field in weighted strokes gained/tee to green. He obviously likes the Bermuda surface, and if his middle irons can just not be a complete disaster, and his wedges remain hot, he could contend once again.

Powers, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (66-1, BetMGM) — Seriously struggled on a longshot this week, ultimately landing on our sweet boy Benny An, whose game should be made for Innisbrook. He’s now been a positive approach player in six straight starts and has made every cut as a result, with a pair of top 25s. We’re going to need a spike week with the putter for An to ever win, and maybe that’s this week. He’s actually rolled it nicely (for him) of late, gaining 1.4 or more strokes on the greens in three straight starts.

RELATED: PGA Tour pro collects $1.5 million payday at Players, still flies home coach

Valspar Championship picks 2023: Players We’re Fading

Caddie: Sam Burns (18-1, DraftKings) — Hard to fade him at this course but he just hasn’t been in great form.

Mayo: Sam Burns (18-1, DraftKings) — This is going to look so bad when Burns figures out how to hit an iron for the first time in a month, but a three-peat at these odds are too much for me to swallow.

Gdula: Davis Riley (31-1, FanDuel) — I’m having trouble seeing why Riley is as short as 28/1 or 31/1 this week. I guess because of the runner-up here last year. He’s a strong iron player but is otherwise pretty moderate statistically.

Gehman: Sam Burns (18-1, DraftKings) — I don’t love the idea of fading the back-to-back reigning Valspar Champion but Burns’ play lately has been uninspiring. He’s far off from his 100-round baselines, especially on approach. He’s lost strokes in that category in three straight and in six of his last eight. Maybe he gets right at a comfortable course but there’s not a ton of statistical evidence for that at this price.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (15-1, FanDuel) — I’m not sure if Steve Stricker, the last player on tour to win the same event three times in a row, was playing this bad of golf whenever he showed up at the John Deere Classic. But Burns has been mostly bad (yes, with some signs of brilliance), but not enough for me to back him at this ultra-inflated price.

Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (10-1, FanDuel) — Outside of a backdoor top-five at the WM Phoenix Open, he just hasn’t been good enough to back him at 10-1, even in this field.

RELATED: The USGA and R&A’s golf ball rollback announcement, explained for regular golfers

Valspar Championship picks 2023: Matchups

Caddie: Davis Riley (+100) over Brian Harman (DraftKings) — Riley took Burns to a playoff here last year and he just so happens to be rounding back into form.

Mayo: Eric Cole (+100) over Joel Dahmen (DraftKings) — Dahmen’s yet to post a finish inside the top 40 in five starts this year. Cole, meanwhile, has bested that result in four of his past six starts. He even clawed through the weekend at the Players and got himself a nice payday with a T-27. The short game has started to wilt since failing to close at the Honda, but the irons have continued to be solid, and he’s been lights out on these familiar Florida greens.

Gdula: Wyndham Clark (-134) over J.T. Poston (FanDuel) — Clark, while not an ideal course fit, has a huge edge over Poston in tee-to-green play over the past half of a year. Poston’s taken a big step back, and Clark also has an edge in putting, so Clark is a clear priority here.

Gehman: Tommy Fleetwood (-110) over Brian Harman (Bet365) — The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook will ask you to be stout on approach and creative around-the-greens. Luckily for Fleetwood, he can boast both of those skill-sets. He gained five strokes on approach at the Playersr Championship and hasn’t lost around-the-green since May of 2022. He returns to the Valspar for the second time – finishing T-16 last year.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Brandon Wu (-130) over Nick Taylor (DraftKings) — A juiced-up price, but I think it’s warranted. Taylor had a nice West Coast Swing, where he usually tends to play his best golf. He’s now coming off two MCs in Florida, and he returns to another longish, tough Florida track. Brandon Wu had a nice Players Championship last week and has proven he can get it done a bunch of ways. At Bay Hill, he gained nearly 10 strokes to the field in the ball-striking categories. At The Players, he gained over seven strokes in the short game. That’s a lethal combination.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (-110) over Matt Fitzpatrick (DraftKings) — I followed Fitzpatrick quite a bit at the Players Championship and his iron game looked broken, which is not where you want your iron game to be coming into Innisbrook. Yes, Burns hasn’t been great, either, but he did show some life at Sawgrass last week and this course is clearly a happy place for him.

Matchup Results from the Players Championship: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Riley (-110) over Wise); Gehman: 1 for 1 (Jason Day (-125) over T. Kim); Lack: 1 for 1 (McIlroy (-120) over Rahm); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Rose (-136) over English); Caddie: PUSH (Montgomery -110) over Harman); Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 13-6-0 (up 6.11 units); Gehman: 12-5-2 (up 5.72 units); Lack: 6-4-0 (up 1.63 units); Powers: 10-9-0 (up 0.46 units); Mayo: 8-10-0 (down 2.51 units); Caddie: 8-10-1 (down 2.16 units); Gdula: 6-12-1 (down 6.68 units)

Innisbrook Resort: Copperhead

Valspar championship picks 2023: top 10s.

Caddie: Jordan Spieth (+165, DraftKings) — Spieth has good history here and he can get the ball up and down all day long around these greens.

Mayo: Justin Suh (+360, DraftKings) — Accuracy, irons, and putting. Suh has been doing them all, albeit not all in the same event. And he’s still finished top 10 in two of his last three starts. He hasn’t missed a cut since Vegas in December and is now seeing his game peaking through the Florida swing.

Gdula: Brian Harman (+360, FanDuel) — ​​ Harman finished T-5 here last year and is a great course fit overall. Super accurate off-the-tee and with good stats otherwise, Harman is an obvious beneficiary of the setup this week.

Gehman: Victor Perez (+550, DraftKings) — After 12 consecutive starts on the DP World Tour, Perez will tee it up at the Valspar Championship this week. He’s been on a stellar run since the end of last year – finishing 12th at the DP World Tour Championship to close out 2022. He kicked off the New Year on the winning side of the Hero Cup and hoisted a solo trophy at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. He hasn’t slowed much, following the win with a T-28 in Dubai and T-13 at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. He’s playing well and has plenty of upside in this field.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Hadwin (+280, DraftKings) — Love Hadwin this week, who returns to the site of a victory in 2017 and a T-7 last year. The Canadian gained nearly 10 strokes tee-to-green last week at The Players, and he should be an absolute factor at a course he loves.

Powers, Golf Digest: Luke List (+850, Bet365) — Last Saturday morning, List went from safely making the cut to missing it with a disastrous double-bogey 7 at the ninth hole at TPC Sawgrass, the 18th hole of his second round. That had to leave a very sour taste in his mouth and there’s no doubt he’s been stewing ever since. Can see him tee-to-greening this place to death and hopefully not putting himself out of the tournament.

Top-10 results from the Players Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Tyrrell Hatton +360); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 7 for 19 (up 15.6 units); Gehman: 6 for 19 (up 11.9 units); Mayo: 6 for 18 (up 10.1 units); Hennessey: 5 for 19 (up 8.35 units); Lack: 4 for 10 (up 5.5 units); Caddie: 4 for 19 (down 1.75 units); Powers: 2 for 19 (down 10.9 units)

Valspar Championship 2023: One and Done

Gehman: Justin Rose — Rose has been putting it all together lately – usually reliant on his short game, he’s been making great strides in the ball-striking categories. He’s gained strokes on approach in five straight, a stretch that included a win at Pebble Beach and a T-6 at the Players. He has three top-15 finishes in his seven starts here. If he can avoid trouble off-the-tee, he can contend for victory.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Aaron Wise. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Jason Day. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Scottie Scheffler. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Sungjae Im. API: Rory McIlroy. Players: Jon Rahm.

Hennessey: Adam Hadwin — The guy is consistent on courses he loves, let’s not overthink this one.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Bermuda: Mark Hubbard. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Jason Day. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Sony Open: Matt Kuchar. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Will Zalatoris. AT&T Pebble Beach: Seamus Power. WMPO: Collin Morikawa. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Keith Mitchell. Players: Rory McIlroy.

Powers: Justin Suh — Suh’s closing in on a maiden win, with two top-six finishes in his last three starts.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. Bermuda: Russell Knox. Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Houston Open: Sepp Straka. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Gary Woodland. American Express: Cameron Young. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Sungjae Im. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Will Zalatoris. Players: Patrick Cantlay.

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME .

Brandon Gdula , managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13 .

Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood .

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for RickRunGood.com, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Golf.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports

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2023 valspar championship odds, course history and picks to win, share this article.

The last stop of the Florida Swing is here, as the PGA Tour is in Palm Harbor, just outside Tampa, for this week’s Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas headline the field while Sam Burns is looking to win his third straight Valspar title.

Spieth, a past champion of this event (2015), is coming off back-to-back solid outings after missing the weekend in LA — T-4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T-19 at the Players.

With many of the world’s best on the sidelines this week thanks to the Valspar’s location on the schedule, Sunday may be a life-changing moment for someone in the field.

Golf course

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) | Par 71 | 7,340 yards

Course comparisons (according to Data Golf): 1. The Concession Golf Club, 2. Sea Island GC, 3. TPC Twin Cities

“The Snake Pit” statue at the 16th tee box warns golfers of the notorious final three holes at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla. Photo by Rob Schumacher/USA TODAY Sports

Course history

Innisbrook (Copperhead) – Course History for the #ValsparChampionship Includes average finish position and strokes gained per round since 2015 pic.twitter.com/LMMIMcjoaG — Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) March 13, 2023

Betting preview

Justin suh (+3700).

Justin Suh plays his shot from the seventh tee during the third round of the Honda Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Suh has found his stride during the Florida Swing. He tied for fifth at the Honda Classic, finished T-24 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (designated event) and tied for sixth last week at the Players (another designated event).

In a weaker field, don’t be surprised if Suh makes a run over the weekend.

Denny McCarthy (+3300)

Denny McCarthy plays his shot on the fourth fairway during the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

Denny McCarthy has missed two cuts in his last five starts, however, the other three finishes were great outings: T-4 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), T-14 (Genesis Invitational) and T-13 (Players Championship).

He’s 3-for-3 making the weekend in Tampa with his best finish (ninth) coming in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

Tommy Fleetwood waits on the 18th green during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

It’s hard to believe, but Tommy Fleetwood is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour.

The Englishman tied for 27th at the Players Championship last week after stumbling to a 4-over 76 in the final round. He finished T-61 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but grabbed a top 20 at the Genesis Invitational.

At last year’s Valspar, Fleetwood tied for 16th.

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2024 Valspar Championship betting odds and tips: Futures picks, who will win, first clicks

The 2024 Valspar Championship will start Thursday, with the PGA Tour event at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course near Tampa, Fla., welcoming 144-plus world-class players to the 13th event on the 2024 PGA Tour schedule .

The Valspar Championship is final event of the month in Florida, with Innisbrook proving a player favorite.

This tournament has produced some great winners, and many of them win in bunches, including Sam Burns , who went back-to-back in 2021 and 2022.

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2024 Valspar Championship: Tournament Model | Field | Rankings  | Horses for Courses | Betting Odds | DFS Picks | One and Done | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | Recent Form | Finish Database

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Xander Schauffele is betting favorite

The 2024 Valspar Championship betting odds show the betting favorite in 2024 Valspar Championship field this week is Xander Schauffele , who is coming in at 8-to-1 (+800) betting odds.

Two-time event winner Sam Burns is next best at 11-to-1, with Justin Thomas at 12-to-1.

Jordan Spieth is on 18-to-1 to start the week.

2024 Valspar Championship betting picks and first looks

Brian Harman has been striking the ball well and really enjoys taking on tougher courses, like this one.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout has been playing tremendous golf all around this year, and he could eventually turn that into a win.

Maverick McNealy is playing his way back into the kind of form that had him on the doorstep of winning golf tournaments.

2024 Valspar Championship betting odds: Outright winner

About the author.

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is currently a +2.6 USGA handicap, and he has covered dozens of major championships and professional golf tournaments. He likes writing about golf and making it more accessible by answering the complex questions fans have about the pro game or who want to understand how to play golf better.

Ryan talks about golf on various social platforms:

X or Twitter: https://twitter.com/ryanballengee Facebook: https://facebook.com/ryanballengeegolf Instagram: https://instagram.com/ryanballengee YouTube: https://youtube.com/@ryanballengeegolf

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Pga dfs: horse for the course - valspar championship.

Welcome back RotoBallers! After a series of near misses in seemingly every tournament this season, Rory McIlroy finally closed the deal on a Sunday to win The Players Championship. We are seeing a focused and motivated Rory this year and it's really what we've been waiting for from a guy that has all the tools to be a legitimate all-time great. With the win at TPC Sawgrass and his consistent performances in 2019, it's pretty fair to consider Rory the current favorite for The Masters, which is now less than a month away.

A personal note on The Players...YUCK! I knew that the tournament had historically been an unpredictable event, but man...things were ugly for me last week! I'm pretty sure I was drawing dead by Thursday evening and that's never a good feeling. Unfortunately, bad weeks are a part of DFS. The great thing is that we get a chance to bounce back this week with a really good event in the Valspar Championship.

Defending champ Paul Casey (an unmitigated disaster at TPC Sawgrass) leads a surprisingly strong field this week. He's joined by the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Jason Day. I say surprisingly strong, because usually a lot of the top guys aren't too eager to tackle the tough Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, but we have seen this tournament gain some steam over the last couple of years and draw the sort of fields that this type of quality golf course deserves. The cream of the crop certainly rose to the top of the leaderboard in last year's Valspar, with Casey, Tiger Woods, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, and Justin Rose making up the top-five finishers...but this is also an event where we saw Kevin Streelman and John Senden win in 2013 and 2014. With this deep field, I expect golf's elite to rise to the challenge again this year.

I try to make HFTC more than just a "picks" column (though you can certainly use it that way if you are in a hurry) by digging deep into each highlighted player. Obviously, our weekly jumping off point is a player's course history, but there isn't a firm set of rules when it comes to who is featured in this article. My goal is to help you succeed as a PGA DFS player. Period. I will touch on different GPP and cash-game strategies throughout the column each week and hopefully have some useful info for both beginners and experienced DFS players. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Editor's Note:  Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can  read all about them here  and see screenshots. 

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The Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 - 7,340 Yards, Greens: Bermuda

Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort is the type of course that could hold a PGA Championship next week and no one would raise an eyebrow. It is a quality golf course and one that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour schedule. It's many undulations are unique for a Florida course. Players in this field will face tree-lined fairways, tough doglegs, and greens that are hard to hit. They must also tackle 'The Snake Pit'...the Copperhead's daunting closing three-hole stretch. This is a less-than-driver course for the bombers, but there are four Par-5's for them to gun at. Interestingly, there are FIVE Par-3's on this layout, which almost forces us to look at something we rarely give much weight to in this article; Par-3 Scoring. As usual, ball striking is a trait we want to target. A players' short game and ability to scramble will also be tested this week.

Patrick Reed (DK - $9,500 & FD - $10,800)

Notable Course History: T2 (2018), T38 ('17), T7 ('16), T2 ('15) Recent Form: T47 (The Players), T50 (API), T22 (AT&T), T13 (Farmers), T13 (Sony)

Patrick Reed is not a guy you will see featured in this article very often. The reason being, he's just not a statistically strong player, so I'm never really able to point at a group of statistics and say: "Here's why you should play Patrick Reed this week."

Unfortunately, this week is no different from a stat perspective, as there's really not many measurables that Reed pops in. What I do like is Reed's history at Copperhead. He was a 72nd-hole error away from, at the least, being in a playoff at last year's Valspar. It was just the latest in a string of strong Valspar performances for the 2018 Masters champ. Last year was Reed's second runner-up finish at Copperhead since 2015 and he logged a T7 here in 2016. This track demands more than a little toughness over 72 holes and the man who made his bones on the PGA Tour by playing Monday qualifiers always seems to answer the bell at Innisbrook.

Going into the research process for this week, I honestly thought that Reed was having a bad year. I was surprised to find that he's logged three top-15's and two top-25's over his seven 2019 starts. Not a bad down year. That Reed has been quietly solid shouldn't be surprising, as he's a guy that just seems to find a way to get the ball in the hole without blowing you away with his talent. Reed is helped by a strong short game that gets him out of a lot of jams. He ranks third in the Valspar field in Strokes Gained: Short Game and fourth in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds.

Reed was actually having a nice Players outing after opening with three straight 69's, but a disastrous final-round 78 sent him tumbling down the leaderboard. He was 28th in The Players field in SG: Tee to Green, but uncharacteristically lost almost 3.5 strokes putting. I look for Reed to get things straightened out on the greens quickly and once again be in contention at the Valspar. Reed's DK price is pretty spot-on and rostering him will probably put you on the road to a more 'balanced build' this week.

Dustin Johnson (DK - $,000 & FD - $12,600)

Notable Course History: None Recent Form: T5 (The Players), Win (WGC-Mexico), T9 (Genesis), T45 (AT&T), T4 (Sentry)

We go from a guy in Patrick Reed that grades out horribly statistically, to perhaps the most statistically impressive player on the PGA Tour in Dustin Johnson. So let it be known that we are an equal opportunity golf article here at HFTC !

What we normally target in this article is strong course history, something that DJ has none of at Innisbrook. It's slightly unusual for me to include a player here without a proven course track record, but Johnson is a pretty big exception to that rule. Along with Rory McIlroy, DJ has been running roughshod over the competition this year. He has a win, two top-five's, and a top-10 in just five 2019 PGA Tour starts, as well as a win at the Saudi International on the Euro Tour. He's in what I like to call 'DJ-God Mode', the type of form in which he has a legitimate chance to win every time he tees it up. We've seen him go on huge winning binges before and here we are again.

I won't bore you with many of Johnson's unbelievable stats, so let's just say they are dominant. Over a long-term measurement sample (50 rounds) he ranks first in this field in an unreal FIVE Strokes Gained categories: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, Off the Tee, and Approach! One sneaky stat I will throw at you is that DJ stands third in this field in SG: Par 3's over his last 50 rounds, a rather surprising stat from a player that we often think of as the ultimate bomber.

Listen, I know you don't need me to tell you to play Dustin Johnson, but his current form is something so special that I felt he was worthy of a mention this week. He plays difficult courses perhaps better than anyone in the world and has a game that's peaking right now. Unsurprisingly, DJ sits atop the salary scale on both DK and FD. In a week where things get pretty thin, pretty quickly as we move down the salary scale, rostering him will require some sacrifices. If you do build around DJ, you are expecting him to win this tournament.

Jim Furyk (DK - $9,200 & FD - $10,000)

Notable Course History: 7th ('18), T41 ('17), T40 ('15), T20 ('14) Recent Form: 2nd (The Players), T9 (Honda), T37 (Genesis), T14 (AT&T)

Let's take a second to talk about Jim Furyk. Fresh off an impressive display of 'old-man strength' at The Players, the 48-year-old heads to another course that fits his grind-it-out style of play. Furyk's runner-up finish at TPC Sawgrass probably came as a huge shock to many, but he has been on my radar for several weeks and was a player we successfully highlighted in the Honda Classic edition of this article.

I'm willing to go right back to Furyk this week, because he does profile as such a good fit at the Copperhead Course. He's played well here in the past and logged a T7 in last season's Valspar. Furyk's stats are about what you would expect...he's rock-solid in SG: Short Game & Putting, as well as ranking third in the field in both SG: Total and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds.

There are a couple of different outlooks we can take on Furyk's run at TPC Sawgrass...will he carry the positive momentum from his strong Players outing to Innisbrook or will he suffer an emotional letdown from the near miss? I think the veteran has been around the block enough times to not get too high or low after very good or very bad performances. After receiving huge price bumps on both sites, many will be reluctant to pay the freight on Furyk this week, but he's a player that I will get into my Valspar lineups.

Ryan Moore (DK - $8,700 & FD - $8,900)

Notable Course History: M/C ('18), T18 ('17), 3rd ('16), 5th ('15) Recent Form: T20 (The Players) T33 (Arnold Palmer), T28 (Genesis), M/C (WMPO), M/C (Farmers)

Ryan Moore is like a younger version of Zach Johnson in that he constantly pops up during my weekly course history research. The guy has quietly had a very solid career. He finds his way into this week's article because he has a very strong Valspar resume. Moore recorded consecutive top-five's on the Copperhead Course in 2015-16 and logged a T18 in '17.

The reason he isn't highlighted here more often despite having strong history at several courses, is his frustrating inconsistency over the last couple of years. Moore has been through numerous equipment changes over the years, and while I don't like blaming equipment for a player's results, I honestly feel like it's hurt his career. He seems to be settled in with PXG now and we've seen some signs of consistency over the past month. He's ran off three straight solid outings at the Genesis, API, and The Players...and has gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in all three of those starts. He also ranks fifth in the Valspar field in SG: Around the Green over his last 12 rounds, which is a handy skill to have at a tough course like Copperhead.

Ryan Moore is never going to be an 'all-in' type of play for me, as he's just too inconsistent, but his course history and improving form have me intrigued this week. We focus mainly on DK in this column, but Moore is an unbelievable value on FD this week, so those of you that play over there should give him a long look. His DK price puts him in the same range as several guys that will be popular, which should make him a nice contrarian-ish GPP option.

Jason Kokrak (DK - $8,600 & FD - $9,700 )

Notable Course History: T8 ('18), T58 ('17), M/C ('16), T7 ('15), T14 ('14) Recent Form: T47 (The Players), T10 (API), T9 (Honda), T37 (Genesis), T20 (WMPO)

I've been beating the Jason Kokrak drum for the entirety of 2019 and I'm not slowing down this week at a course where he's logged two top-10's since 2015. He's fresh off a T47 at The Players, which doesn't seem very impressive, unless you mention the fact that he lost nearly two strokes to the field on the greens. It's a recurring theme with Kokrak, who logged a T10 at the API despite losing a MASSIVE 4.1 strokes putting!

Why am I so quick to jump on such a bad putter? Because as I've preached in this article for almost a year, putting can come and go in the blink of an eye on the PGA Tour. If a guy is hitting the ball consistently well, a decent putting week can always come along. Kokrak is striking the ball at a very elite level this season. I'm talking 'DJ-like' stats. Over his last 24 rounds, Kokrak trails only Dustin Johnson in this field in Strokes Gained: T2G and Ball Striking; and he trails only Keegan Bradley in Strokes Gained: Approach over that same time frame. So, yeah...my man Kokrak has been inviting folks to 'The Stripe Show' all year long.

After being an extremely popular DFS option at the Honda Classic, Kokrak's DK ownership dwindled to around 10% for both the API and The Players. I imagine that reduction was due to the depth of those fields and I look for his ownership to trend back up again this week. I'm fine with eating a little chalk if need be, and I'm playing Kokrak in all formats.

Sung Kang (DK - $7,200 & FD - $7,900 )

Notable Course History: 73rd ('18), M/C ('17), T22 ('16) Recent Form: T47 (The Players), T6 (API), T51 (Honda), T64 (Genesis), T14 (AT&T)

While there is a lot of strength at the top of the Valspar field, things get pretty ugly when we start searching for DFS value this week. Sung Kang is a player that I've leaned on several times this year when trying to save salary and I'm leaning in his direction again for the Valspar. Obviously a player at this price isn't going to be a model of consistency, but Kang has only missed one cut in eight 2019 starts and has popped off for a couple of top-10 finishes at the API and the Sony Open.

Kang isn't the type of player that blows you away in one statistical area, but he's competent across the board. He's 25th in SG: Total and 26th in SG: T2G in this Valspar field over his last 24 rounds. He's also very efficient on Par-3's, of which the players will face five of this week, and grades out 10th in the field in SG: Par 3's over his last 24 rounds. Kang is also good at getting himself out of trouble and stands 14th in the field in Bogeys Avoided.

The South Korean is an especially great value on FD at just $7.9k, but his $7.2k price on DK also presents some salary relief. He's by no means a 'slam dunk', but there aren't many discount plays to feel great about this week. He's a GPP play for me and I'll mix and match him with some of the other usual suspects in this price range like Joaquin Niemann, Trey Mullinax, and maybe even someone like Danny Willett in the sub-$7k range. I usually try to keep my player pool as tight as possible, but because there's nothing I really love down here this week, I'll be tossing several different cheap players in my MME lineups.

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PGA TOUR’S VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP HEADLINES LIVE GOLF COVERAGE ACROSS NBC, GOLF CHANNEL AND PEACOCK THIS WEEK

Valspar Championship Live Coverage From Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Fla., Begins Tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel and Peacock

Notay Begay III to Serve as Analyst for This Week’s Coverage of Valspar Championship

LPGA Tour Heads to Palos Verdes, Calif., for FIR HILLS SERI PAK Championship Live Tomorrow at 6 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel and Peacock

PGA Tour Champions’ Hoag Classic From Newport Beach Country Club Gets Underway Friday at 10 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel

DP World Tour Porsche Singapore Classic Live Tomorrow at 1 a.m. ET on GOLF Channel

STAMFORD, Conn. – March 20, 2024 – The PGA TOUR’s Valspar Championship from Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Fla., headlines live golf coverage across NBC, GOLF Channel, and Peacock this week.

PGA TOUR: VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP

The PGA TOUR travels to Palm Harbor, Fla., this week for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), the final event of the PGA TOUR’s 2024 Florida Swing. The field includes Jordan Spieth , Justin Thomas , PLAYERS Championship runner-up Xander Schauffele , and Sam Burns , who looks to win his third Valspar Championship after winning back-to-back titles in 2021 and 2022.

Live coverage begins tomorrow and Friday at 2 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel and Peacock. Live coverage this weekend begins at 1 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel and Peacock before transitioning to NBC on both days. Long-time NBC Sports golf commentator Notah Begay III will serve as analyst for this week’s coverage of the Valspar Championship.

NBC, GOLF Channel & Peacock Broadcast Team

• Play by Play : Dan Hicks / Steve Sands
• Analyst : Notah Begay III / Brad Faxon / Curt Byrum
• On-Course : John Wood / Arron Oberholser
• Reporter : Kira Dixon

How To Watch – Thursday, March 21 – Sunday, March 24 (all times ET)

• TV – NBC, GOLF Channel
• Streaming – Peacock, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app

Notable Players This Week

• Jordan Spieth
• Justin Thomas
• Xander Schauffele
• Matt Kuchar
• Min Woo Lee

LPGA TOUR: FIR HILLS SERI PAK Championship

World Golf Hall of Famer Seri Pak will make her return to the LPGA Tour next week as host of the newly renamed FIR HILLS SERI PAK Championship at Palos Verdes Golf Club in Palos Verdes Estates, Calif. Pak won 25 LPGA tournaments including five majors and was a pioneer and an inspiration for generations of LPGA players from Korea. World No. 4 Ruoning Yin will look to defend her title at this week’s event.

Live coverage gets underway tomorrow at 6 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel and Peacock.

• Play by Play : Grant Boone
• Analyst : Morgan Pressel
• Holes : Tom Abbott
• On-Course : Kay Cockerill
• TV – GOLF Channel

Also on NBCSports.com and NBC Sports app*

• Ruoning Yin
• Nelly Korda
• Brooke Henderson
• Megan Khang
• Leona Maguire

PGA TOUR CHAMPIONS: HOAG CLASSIC

Held at Newport Beach Country Club in California, the PGA Tour Champions’ Hoag Classic is entering its 28 th year at this venue. World Golf Hall of Famer Ernie Els looks to win this tournament for the third time in the last four events (No event in 2021).

First round coverage streams exclusively on Peacock from 5:50-7:50 p.m. ET on Friday, with encore coverage on Friday at 10 p.m. ET on GOLF Channel. Weekend coverage will be live on GOLF Channel and Peacock

How To Watch – Friday, March 22 – Sunday, March 24 (all times ET)

Tape Delay*

• Padraig Harrington
• Vijay Singh
• Retief Goosen
• Fred Couples

DP WORLD TOUR: PORSCHE SINGAPORE CLASSIC

The DP World Tour’s Porsche Singapore Classic – first event of the DP World Tour’s Asian Swing – will be played from Laguna National Golf Resort in Singapore. 2019 Open champion Shane Lowry and 2024 Farmers Insurance Open champion Matthieu Pavon headline a competitive field at this week’s event.

Live coverage begins tomorrow at 1 a.m. ET on GOLF Channel.

• Streaming – NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app
• Rasmus Hojgaard
• Shane Lowry
• Matthieu Pavon
• Max McGreevy
• Matthias Schwab
• Thriston Lawrence

BROADCAST NOTES

• Golf Central will provide pre- and post-tournament coverage on GOLF Channel Wednesday-Sunday. Golf Central coverage is anchored by Steve Burkowski , Jim Gallagher Jr. , Matt Adams and Kira Dixon .
• Golf Today on Wednesday will be hosted by Eamon Lynch , George Savaricas , and Dixon.

Note: all times ET, post-round coverage begins following conclusion of play

All GOLF Channel coverage also streams on NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app via authentication, giving consumers additional value to their subscription service, and making high-quality content available to MVPD customers both in and out of the home and on multiple platforms.

--NBC SPORTS--

• SPORTS & TEAMS
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PGA Tour goes to Dallas for same course and new title. LIV Golf plays in Singapore

THE CJ CUP BYRON NELSON

Site: McKinney, Texas.

Course: TPC Craig Ranch. Yardage: 7,414. Par: 71.

Prize money: $9.5 million. Winner's share: $1,710,000.

Television: Thursday-Friday, 4-7 p.m. (Golf Channel); Saturday-Sunday, 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).

Defending champion: Jason Day.

FedEx Cup leader: Scottie Scheffler.

Last week: Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Notes: Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris and Tom Kim lead the contingent of Dallas-area residents playing the tournament. ... CJ Cup takes over as title sponsor after AT&T ended its sponsorship after nine years. CJ Cup started out with a tournament in South Korea, then moved to Las Vegas and South Carolina during the COVID-19 pandemic. ... The field features only 10 of the top 50 in the world ranking. Spieth is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 20. ... Scottie Scheffler is missing the tournament as his wife is expecting their first child. ... Adam Scott is playing the tournament for the third straight year. He won the Byron Nelson in 2008. ... This is the final week to finish among the top 70 in the PGA Championship points list to assure a spot at Valhalla in two weeks. The points list is PGA Tour earnings the last 12 months. ... Spieth now has gone 43 starts over two years on the PGA Tour since his last victory.

Next week: Wells Fargo Championship.

Online: https://www.pgatour.com/

LIV GOLF LEAGUE

LIV GOLF SINGAPORE

Site: Singapore.

Course: Sentosa GC (Serapong). Yardage: 7,406. Par: 71.

Prize money: $20 million. Winner's share: $4 million.

Television: Thursday-Saturday, 9 p.m. to 2 a.m. (CW app); Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m. (The CW Network-Tape Delay).

Defending champion: Talor Gooch.

Points leader: Joaquin Niemann.

Last week: Brendan Steele won LIV Golf Adelaide.

Notes: Brendan Steele last week became the third straight first-time winner on LIV Golf, matching the longest such streak since the league launched in June 2022. ... Jon Rahm has yet to win since joining LIV this year, but he is the only player in 2024 to have finished in the top 10 in all six events. ... Ian Poulter and Hudson Swafford were the only players who did not have a round under par last week in Australia. ... Poulter in 2009 and Sergio Garcia in 2018 won the Singapore Open when it was played at Sentosa. ... With the PGA Championship approaching, LIV has three players in the top 100 who are not already eligible — Adrian Meronk, Lucas Herbert and Patrick Reed. ... LIV already has 10 players in the PGA Championship field at Valhalla. ... After back-to-back weeks in Australia and Asia, LIV Golf is off for a month until a week before the U.S. Open.

Next tournament: LIV Golf Houston on June 7-9.

Online: https://www.livgolf.com/

EUROPEAN TOUR

VOLVO CHINA OPEN

Site: Shenzhen, China.

Course: Hidden Grace GC. Yards: 7,147. Par: 72.

Prize money: $2.25 million. Winner's share: $375,000.

Television: Thursday-Friday, 12-5 a.m. (Golf Channel); Saturday, 12-4:30 a.m. (Golf Channel); Saturday, 11:30 p.m. to 4:30 a.m. (Golf Channel).

Previous winner: Sarit Suwannarut.

Race to Dubai leader: Rory McIlroy.

Last week: Yuto Katsuragawa won the ISPS Handa Championship.

Notes: The China Open returns to the European tour schedule for the first time since 2019 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tournament was held last year co-sanctioned by the Asian Tour and the China Tour. ... This is the final event that counts toward the Asian Swing on the European. The top three players get exemptions into the PGA Championship next month at Valhalla. Sebastian Soderberg, Keita Nakajima and Jesper Svensson are currently holding down the top three spots. ... Thriston Lawrence leads the European tour this season with five finishes in the top 10. ... Katsuragawa is the fourth player from Japan in the last seven months to win on the European tour. The others were Ryo Hisatsune, Rikuya Hoshino and Nakajima. ... The tour is off until the PGA Championship on May 16-19. After that begins a stretch in which 17 consecutive events (outside the majors) are staged in European countries.

Next tournament: PGA Championship on May 16-19.

Online: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/

PGA TOUR CHAMPIONS

INSPERITY INVITATIONAL

Site: The Woodlands, Texas.

Course: The Woodlands CC (Tournament). Yards: 7,002. Par: 72.

Prize money: $2.7 million. Winner's share: $405,000.

Television: Friday, 12:30-3:30 p.m. (Golf Channel); Saturday-Sunday, 3-6 p.m. (Golf Channel).

Defending champion: Steven Alker.

Charles Schwab Cup leader: Stephen Ames.

Last week: Stephen Ames won the Mitsubishi Electric Classic.

Notes: Bernhard Langer returns to competition after injuring his Achilles tendon while playing pickleball on Feb. 1. The injury caused him to miss the Masters. ... Langer has won every year since first becoming eligible for the PGA Tour Champions in 2007. He is a four-time winner of the Insperity Invitational. ... Stephen Ames took over the Charles Schwab Cup lead over Steven Alker by winning at the TPC Sugarloaf last week. It was his second win this season. ... Alker is the two-time defending champion at The Woodlands. ... Ames is the only multiple winner on the PGA Tour Champions in 2024. ... The field includes Steve Stricker, who missed the cut last week in New Orleans on the PGA Tour. ... Paul Broadhurst of England has won and finished runner-up in his last two starts. ... This is the last regular event before the first of five majors on the PGA Tour Champions schedule.

Next week: Regions Tradition.

Online: https://www.pgatour.com/pgatour-champions

Last week: Hannah Green won the JM Eagle LA Championship.

Next week: Cognizant Founders Cup.

Race to CME Globe leader: Nelly Korda.

Online: https://www.lpga.com/

KORN FERRY TOUR

Last week: Tim Widing won the Veritex Bank Championship.

Next tournament: AdventHealth Championship on May 16-19.

Points leader: Tim Widing.

Online: https://www.pgatour.com/korn-ferry-tour

OTHER TOURS

Epson Tour: Casino Del Sol Golf Classic, Sewailo GC, Tucson, Ariz. Defending champion: Gigi Stoll. Online: https://www.epsontour.com/

PGA of America: PGA Professional Championship, Fields Ranch at PGA (East and West), Frisco, Texas. Defending champion: Braden Shattuck. Television: Tuesday, 5-8 p.m. (Golf Channel); Wednesday, 4-7 p.m. (Golf Channel). Online: https://www.pga.com/

Japan Golf Tour: The Crowns, Nagoya GC (Wago), Aichi, Japan. Defending champion: Hiroshi Iwata. Online: https://www.jgto.org/en/

Asian Tour: GS Caltex Maekyung Open, Namseoul CC, Seongnam, South Korea. Defending champion: Chanmin Jung. Online: https://asiantour.com/

Legends Tour: Barbados Leges, Apes Hills Barbados, Saint James, Barbados. Defending champion: New tournament. Online: https://www.legendstour.com/

Japan LPGA: World Ladies Championship Salonpas Cup, Ibaraki GC (East), Ibaraki, Japan. Defending champion: Yuri Yoshida. Online: https://www.lpga.or.jp/en/

Korea LPGA: Kyochon 1991 Ladies Open, Sunsan CC, Gumi South Korea. Defending champion: Bokyeom Park. Online: https://klpga.co.kr/

AP golf: https://apnews.com/hub/golf

Horses for Courses: Chalk talks ahead of Arnold Palmer Invitational

Horses for courses.

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard marks the second week of the Florida Swing and the fourth of eight Signature Events of 2024.

Rory McIlroy (+900) will look to add to his six top-10s in his previous nine starts. Posting 18-under in perfect weather during the 2018 edition, the Ulsterman established the tournament scoring record on TifEagle greens (added in 2016).

Leading on the back nine last year, McIlroy couldn’t complete his second win and settled for a share of second place. Making his 10th start, he has posted eight results of T13 or better.

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Ranking inside the top five in this category for the last six seasons, Bay Hill has provided a challenge from tee peg to TifEagle. The fairways, averaging 30 yards in width, play narrower than last week, but three inches of overseeded (rye) Bermuda will penalize those who don’t pay off the tee ball. Attacking the fourth-largest greens (7,500 square feet on average) on TOUR will require the pros to play boldly to win, but safely perhaps to contend. Taking on bunkers, water on nine of the 18 holes, and short-side misses will make for a quick exit. It's not a coincidence the top five players listed above are in the top seven choices at the BetMGM Sportsbook.

It’s also not a coincidence that Scottie Scheffler (+650) is the first choice. Making his fourth start, the 2022 champion also shared the lead on the back nine last year in his defense before signing for T4. Never breaking par in second or fourth rounds, the Texan has won, shared fourth and shared 15th in three visits over the last four years.

Bogey Avoidance

Players posting single digit counts for bogeys has been a rare occurrence. Over the last four editions just 13 players have kept it under 10 bogeys for the week. When Arnold Palmer stated, “You must play boldly to win,” the elite players must pick and choose those moments. Elevating the field and the event since the 2021 edition has increased the quality, and yet, the average winning score has hovered just above 8-under. The 2024 edition will feature winds blowing from four different directions on the four scheduled tournament days. Grinding out pars and avoiding compounding errors will push players up the leaderboard on the weekend.

Kurt Kitayama (+6600) broke major trends during his debut victory last season. The Californian, who now resides in Las Vegas, became the first player since 1990 to win in his first try. Breaking a streak of 20-something winners, the 30-year-old was only the second 30-something to win in the last six editions. Co-leading the field in Fairways and GIR, he also ranked second in SG: Putting and Bogey Avoidance. Winning by a shot, he survived a final-round triple bogey. Like Austin Eckroat at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches last week, he won on his 50th start on TOUR.

SG: Putting

After switching to TifEagle from Bentgrass, half of the last eight champions ranked first or second on the shortest of grass. Running 12 feet on the Stimpmeter, the fourth-largest greens on TOUR will challenge the nerves from distance and anything inside 10 feet. Bay Hill has ranked in the top 20 in three of the last four years in three-putt avoidance. Lagging putts on undulating greens is a skill just like finding greens in regulation. The 2023 edition saw the Arnold Palmer design rank inside the top 20 in Putting Average for the fifth time in six seasons.

Jason Day (+3300) won the first edition on the TifEagle greens in 2016. A maestro on and around the greens, the Australian picked up T10 last season and has only finished outside T31 once from eight weekends. Making his 13th start, the former Lake Nona resident has played this event off-and-on since 2008.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Harris English (+4000): Running T2-T26-T9 over his last three starts at Bay Hill, the former Georgia Bulldog squared only four bogeys last year. Posting all four rounds at par or better, he ran his streak of paydays to five straight.

Jordan Spieth (+1800): Holding the lead on Sunday last year, he was unable to close the door. Settling in at T4 for the second time in two visits over three years, the Texan will feel he is owed one here. Playing for the first time in 2021, he posted 9-under through 54 holes before a final round 75 pushed him back to T4. Last year saw three more rounds of 70 or better extend his total to six from eight loops.

Viktor Hovland (+1400): Making the trip for the sixth consecutive season, the Norwegian rattled off his two best paydays over his last eight rounds. Opening 69-66 in 2022, he led McIlroy by two heading into the weekend before rounds of 74-75 dropped him one shot from a playoff with Scheffler. Last year, posting 66 in Round 3, he sat one off the 54-hole lead and played in the final group with Kitayama. Closing with 75, he dropped to T10. His last four Sundays have produced 75, 74, 78 and 77.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800): Cashing T14 in 2023, the Englishman broke a run of four straight T10 or better. The runner-up from 2019 has posted T27 or better from seven weekends in nine visits.

Keegan Bradley (+5500): After falling short of the weekend on his first visit, he went on to win the PGA Championship later that summer. The next 11 editions at Bay Hill did not require an early checkout from the Lodge. Picking up his best paydays on Bentgrass, he appears to finally have figured out the TifEagle. Cashing T10-T11-T10 over the last three years, eight of his 12 rounds have been par or better, including 64 in Round 3 in 2021.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600): Making his debut last winter, the Californian cashed T4. Posting three rounds of 71 or better, including 68 to open and close, one of just nine rounds in the 60s on Sunday.

Bookmakers Bonus: Puerto Rico Open

The TOUR will also be in action at the Puerto Rico Open at the Grand Reserve Golf Club.

Ryan Brehm (+17500): The big hitter paid off the trend in his victory in 2022. In his last three visits, he's cashed T35, T11 and win. Posting 13 rounds of 72 or better from 14 tries, not many will be more comfortable at the Grand Reserve Golf Club.

Nico Echavarria (+4000): The 2023 winner returns to defend his first and only win on TOUR. Posting 21-under 267, the Colombian tied the tournament scoring record on debut.

Nate Lashley (+3300): Posting 37-under from three visits, he secured T3 last year after T7-T8 in his first two visits.

Martin Trainer (+6600): The champion from 2019 is a notorious Paspalum putter and wind player.

-Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-

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2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions by model that's nailed 11 majors

Sportsline's proven model simulated the cj cup byron nelson 2024 10,000 times and revealed its pga golf picks.

The third PGA Tour event in Texas this year begins on Thursday as the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson tees off in the Dallas metro. Stephan Jager won in Houston and Akshay Bhatia won in San Antonio prior to the Masters, with the PGA Tour coming back to Dallas-Fort Worth at the end of May. The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 field is loaded with Dallas natives like Jordan Spieth and Will Zalatoris, and the Texans also happen to top the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds board. Spieth is the 12-1 favorite, and Zalatoris is the third-favorite at 22-1, with Jason Day (18-1) sandwiched in between.

TPC Craig Ranch, a par-72, 7,468-yard course with Bentgrass greens will host the tournament, which has Day as the defending champion and a two-time winner. Si Woo Kim, who was runner-up last year, is at 22-1, while K.H. Lee, who was the back-to-back winner in 2021-22, is a 60-1 longshot. Before making any 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks, be sure t o see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, and the RBC Heritage this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 field is finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

Top 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024: Day, the defending champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Day got off to a hot start this season when he posted three top-10 finishes in his first five tournaments, but he has struggled since then. He has finished outside the top 15 in his last five events, including a missed cut at the Texas Children's Houston Open at the end of March. 

Day ranks 183rd on the PGA Tour in approach shots from more than 200 yards, which will be a shot that he has to take throughout this tournament. He is also ranked 133rd in green in regulation percentage (63.62%) and 152nd in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.380). Day is not in strong form right now, so the model is looking elsewhere with its pick to win this tournament. 

Another surprise: Min Woo Lee, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Lee entered this tournament last year ranked 62nd in the world, but he's steadily risen and is now No. 32 in World Ranking. That's thanks to collecting a pair of international victories since October and just missing another with a runner-up on the Cognizant Classic of the PGA Tour last month. Lee's last tournament was at the Masters where he finished a solid 22nd, giving him three top 25s over his last four major starts.

TPC Craig Ranch presents birdie opportunities on the four par 5s, and Lee is among the best in the world on these holes. He ranks 13th on tour in par 5 scoring, thanks to elite driving skills as Lee ranks in the top 20 in driving distance, driving accuracy and total driving. Maybe just as importantly, Lee is one who avoids major mistakes as he ranks 21st on the PGA Tour in 3-putt avoidance. With a somewhat diluted field devoid of many of the top players on tour, a golfer with Lee's strengths would be a valuable asset in 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson bets.  See who else to pick here . 

How to make 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 28-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected CJ Cup Byron Nelson leaderboard , all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, field

Get full 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks, best bets, and predictions here .

Jordan Spieth +1200 Jason Day +1800 Will Zalatoris +2200 Si Woo Kim +2200 Sungjae Im +2500 Alex Noren +2500 Adam Scott +2500 Tom Hoge +2800 Min Woo Lee +2800 Byeong Hun An +3000 Stephan Jaeger +3000 Keith Mitchell +3500 Tom Kim +4000 Thomas Detry +4500 Patrick Rodgers +5000 Maverick McNealy +5000 Mackenzie Hughes +5500 Adam Schenk +5500 Aaron Rai +6000 Beau Hossler +6000 K.H. Lee +6000 Davis Thompson +6500 Taylor Montgomery +6500 Seamus Power +7000 Mark Hubbard +7000 Luke List +7500 Doug Ghim +8000 Ryan Fox +8000 Kevin Yu +8000 Ben Griffin +8000 Jake Knapp +9000 Taylor Pendrith +9000 Daniel Berger +9000 Thorbjorn Olesen +9000 C.T. Pan +10000 Alejandro Tosti +10000 Matt Kuchar +10000 Sam Stevens +10000 Nate Lashley +10000 Peter Kuest +10000 Chan Kim +10000 Joseph Bramlett +10000 Michael Kim +11000 Greyson Sigg +11000 Andrew Novak +11000 Matti Schmid +11000 Justin Lower +11000 Max Greyserman +11000 Chesson Hadley +11000 Cameron Champ +11000 Charley Hoffman +11000 Garrick Higgo +11000

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LIV Golf Adelaide Power Rankings: Jon Rahm is Due for a Breakthrough

Rahm was LIV's biggest signing of the offseason, but he's still looking for his first win this year. He leads the list of top contenders.

• Author: Jim Stracka

Welcome to Power Rankings, a weekly feature on SI Golf from our partners at KeyCompete . This week the PGA Tour drops into New Orleans for the Zurich Classic , and LIV Golf heads to Australia. Here’s how our model sees this week’s LIV event shaping up:

LIV Golf Adelaide Preview

LIV returns this week to Australia and the Grange Golf Club, which is known for its challenging layout and pristine conditions—and its party scene, as it was the site of last year’s sell-out crowds and the par-3 12th “watering hole,” which was boisterous all week long ( especially when Chase Koepka made an ace ). 

The course is celebrated for hosting several big-name tournaments, including the Australian PGA Championship and the Women's Australian Open. Here are the players our model likes this week:

KeyCompete’s 2024 LIV Golf Adelaide Power Rankings

1) Jon Rahm (+600) - The favorite in the books and in our rankings. Has a couple of high finishes on LIV but no wins yet. This could be the week.

2) Bryson DeChambeau (+1000) - DeChambeau, always a unique player, is a good fit here. Hung around at Augusta before tying for 6th, but could ride good form into this event.

3) Cameron Smith (+1000) - Home game for the native Australian, and his exceptional short game could play well on these smaller greens. T6 at the Masters.

4) Joaquin Niemann (+1000) - Aggressive style could serve him well, particularly over the finishing holes. T22 at Augusta.

5) Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) - Known for fiery temperament and sharp iron play, he might be a good fit here. Quietly T9 at the Masters.

6) Talor Gooch (+1400) - Was LIV’s top player in 2023 but may need to dial down the power to hit narrow fairways here.

7) Dean Burmester (+2700) - South African's powerful driving and solid putting will be assets. Consistency throughout round will be critical.

8) Patrick Reed (+2200) - Notorious resilience and short game mastery, he could be a dark horse, especially if he’s within striking distance heading into the final round.

9) Brooks Koepka (+2200) - His course management could fare well here. Looked a little lost at Augusta during a T45.

10) Dustin Johnson (+2200) - The combo of power and finesse can’t be overlooked. MC at the Masters.

LIV Miami Recap

Dean Burmester was LIV’s most recent winner, as he proved himself to be a rising star during the week at Trump National Doral.

Last year KeyCompete handicapped the Masters and brought our yearly record to 69-50 on matchup bets.

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Every PGA Tour course YOU can play, ranked by price

W ith PGA Tour heading to a municipal golf course this week in Memorial Park for the Houston Open , it marks one of the cool times you can play the same shots the pros play.

But, it’s really not that rare of an occurrence.

While the 2002 U.S. Open was celebrated as “the People’s U.S. Open” for being played at a municipal golf course, Bethpage Black, for the first time, the PGA Tour has actually been playing at munis and public access courses for decades.

Last week’s Valspar Championship host, Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course, is public. So too is TPC Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, although it may cost a pretty penny . With a stay at the famous Bay Hill Lodge, you can also secure a tee time at host of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Even two of this year’s major championship hosts are open to the public.

In fact, of the 39 events on the PGA Tour this season, 20 of them will be contested on 23 different golf courses that you can play.

But playing PGA Tour tracks doesn’t come cheap with greens fees at some courses surpassing $500 while many of the resorts require you to stay on the property.

Keep reading below for a list of all the PGA Tour’s public access courses for the 2024 season, ranked by greens fee.

PGA Tour public-access courses

1. memorial park golf course.

City: Houston, Texas.

Tournament: Texas Children’s Houston Open

Type: Municipal

Peak Green fee: $140

2. TPC San Antonio – Oaks

City: San Antonio, Texas.

Tournament: Valero Texas Open

Type: Resort

Peak Green fee: $149

3. Torrey Pines – North

City: San Diego, Calif.

Tournament: Farmers Insurance Open

Peak Green fee: $185

4. Grand Reserve Golf Club

City: Rio Grande, Puerto Rico

Tournament: Puerto Rico Open

Peak Green fee: $225 + tax

5. Innisbrook – Copperhead

City: Palm Harbor, Fla.

Tournament: Valspar Championship

Peak Green fee: Stay and play packages starting at $465

6. TPC Deere Run

City: Silvis, Ill.

Tournament: John Deere Classic

Type: Public

Peak Green fee: $269

7. Vidanta Vallarta

City: Vallarta, Mexico

Tournament: Mexico Open at Vidanta

Peak Green fee: $270

8. Tahoe Mountain Club – Olde Greenwood

City: Truckee, Calif.

Tournament: Barracuda Championship

Type: Resort/semi-private

Peak Green fee: $275

9. Torrey Pines – South

Peak Green fee: $292

10. TPC Louisiana

City:  Avondale, Louisiana

Tournament: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Peak Green fee: $299

11. PGA National – Champion

City: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Tournament: Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Peak Green fee: $347

12. PGA West – Dye Stadium Course

City: La Quinta, Calif.

Tournament: The American Express

Peak Green fee: $356

13. PGA West – Nicklaus Tournament Course

Peak Green fee: $399

14. Royal Troon

City: Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland

Tournament: 152nd Open Championship

Type: Private (Allows vistors)

Peak Green fee: £340

15. The Plantation Course at Kapalua

City: Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii

Tournament: The Sentry

Peak Green fee: $459 + tax

16. Pinehurst No. 2

City: Pinehurst, N.C.

Tournament: 124th U.S. Open

Peak Green fee: $470

17. Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge

City: Orlando, Fla.

Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Peak Green fee: $475

T18. Spyglass Hill Golf Course

City: Pebble Beach, Calif.

Tournament: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Peak Green fee: $495 + cart fee

T18. Puntacana Resort and Club – Corales Course

City: Punta Cana, Dominican Republic

Tournament: Corales Puntacana Championship

Peak Green fee: $495

20. TPC Scottsdale

City: Scottsdale, Ariz.

Tournament: WM Phoenix Open

Peak Green fee: $551

21. Habour Town Golf Links

City: Hilton Head Island, S.C.

Tournament: RBC Heritage

Peak Green fee: $567

22. Pebble Beach Golf Links

Peak Green fee: $675 + cart fee

23. TPC Sawgrass

City: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

Tournament: The Players Championship

Peak Green fee: $900

The post Every PGA Tour course YOU can play, ranked by price appeared first on Golf .

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2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks: More outright bets for Dallas

The PGA Tour heads to Dallas this week, and our golf analysts have  2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks   ready.

Our golf betting experts have already peppered the CJ Cup Byron Nelson outright betting board on Monday, and they have outright bets for three different golfers, including Seamus Power.

Find our favorite 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks   for this week's PGA Tour event at TPC Craig Ranch below.

Keith Mitchell +3500 ( DraftKings )

By Greg Waddell, Action Network TPC Craig Ranch is a very gettable course where tee-to-green accuracy can lead to some impressive numbers under par. Keith Mitchell has been great both off the tee and on his approach shots in recent weeks. Of all players in the field this week, Mitchell ranks second overall in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds (+1.02 per round), and he is also fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in that span (+0.82 per round).

As the only golfer in the field to rank in the top five in both of those categories, there should be opportunities galore for Mitchell to make his mark this weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that he is in great form as well. In Mitchell’s last eight starts on Tour, he has finished inside the top 20 an impressive five times.

At 35-1, this is great value for a hot golfer whose strengths match the course setup.

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Seamus Power +7000 ( bet365 )

By Matt Gannon, Action Network Don't look now but Seamus Power is stacking great approach weeks as he has gained strokes on approach in each of his last five starts. He has been in the mix recently as well as he was in the final group at the Valspar Championship and tied for 12th at the RBC Heritage.

In three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power has finished in the top 20 every time. He is an extremely streaky player, and we are in the middle of a   Power surge.

The key to his success is iron play, and that is also what TPC Craig Ranch demands. Power is a hot iron player who is in great form on a course that he has played well on and fits perfectly. Power is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, and this field is fairly week, so the stars are aligning for Power to grab another win.

Tom Hoge +3300 ( betMGM )

By Tony Sartori, Action Network Once again, Tom Hoge will tee it up in a golf tournament where he is the best ball-striker in a Scottie Scheffler-less field. On Tour this season, Hoge ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach and has now gained strokes on approach in 10 consecutive tournaments with ShotLink data.

He made the weekend in all 10 of those events, boasting seven top 20-finishes over that stretch. He had a bit of a hiccup last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but that was a team event and does not concern me at all about Hoge’s profile moving forward.

In fact, that missed cut honestly makes me like Hoge more this week as I feel 33-1 is a good buy-low number on such an efficient ball-striker. He has also made the weekend in each of his past two appearances in this event, including a tie for 17th in 2022.

More must-reads:

• Golf best bets: Outright picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson
• Rory McIlroy's 25th PGA Tour win is by far his least impressive
• The 'Most career passing touchdowns' quiz

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