A collage created by Skift Creative Strategist Aishwarya Agarwal

How Russia’s War on Ukraine Changed Travel One Year Later

Rashaad Jorden , Skift

February 23rd, 2023 at 12:00 PM EST

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the travel industry in significant ways, and its impact will continue to be felt for many years. Here is Skift's look at how the war has altered the business of travel.

Rashaad Jorden

Friday marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cataclysmic act that has significantly impacted travel worldwide. In just 12 months, 19 million refugees have crossed the border out of Ukraine, 7,200 innocent civilians have been killed, including 438 children, and countless lives are still being put at risk day and night by a war that shows no signs of ending.

That is how all of us try to put the tragedy into perspective. Still, our job is to report on the travel industry and how this war has upended business. 

Major travel brands in all sectors of the industry have been disrupted. Skift has thoroughly covered the impact of the war on the travel industry, including changes travel brands have had to make in response to the invasion as well as how it has impeded travel’s ongoing recovery from the pandemic. Here is a look at major changes in travel brought about by the war.

Airlines Faced Surging Fuel Costs

The airline industry was perhaps the first sector of travel to feel immediate effects of the war. Still largely yet to make a complete recovery from the pandemic, airlines had to quickly encounter surging fuel prices . Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary predicted the 12 months after the invasion would be difficult for most airlines in large part because of the jump in oil prices. Some carriers either introduced or raised fuel surcharges , which airlines typically pass onto customers in the form of higher airfares .

Russia’s Travel Industry Hasn’t Recovered

Russian travelers spent $36 billion on international travel and took more than 40 million overseas trips in 2019 , making the country one of the world’s largest outbound markets. The Russian travel industry had initially been one of the strongest performers according to the according to the Travel Health Index launched by Skift Research, which measures the performance of the global travel industry compared to pre-pandemic levels.  

But moves by U.S. , Canada, and nations across Europe to close their airspace to Russian planes have pummeled Russia’s travel performance as calculated by Skift Research. Russia’s score in the Skift Travel Health Index, which reveals the extent of its recovery from the pandemic, decreased roughly 28 points from February 2022 to the following month. The country’s December 2022 performance trailed its score from the same month in 2020.

Russia's Travel Performance

The War Drove Major Travel Brands to Retreat From Russia

Many major Western travel companies announced shortly after Russia invading Ukraine that they were pulling business out of Russia . Travel industry heavyweights like Airbnb, Booking Holdings and Marriott were among the corporations to announce they were pulling operations out of Russia. In addition, several tour operators committed to cancelling trips to Russia for the rest of 2022.

However, some prominent global brands are still doing business in Russia, including Accor. CEO Sebastien Bazin said during last year’s Skift Forum Europe that the Paris-based hotel company has never stopped operating in a war-torn country in its history. Bazin added that issues pertaining profitability didn’t drive Accor’s decision, noting that Russia has been far from a lucrative market from the company. Meanwhile, despite blocking advertising from Russian companies, Google Travel is still listing information about hotels in Russia provided by advertisers from outside of the country.

Skift published this list in March 2022 documenting companies that had announced they were curtailing business from Russia.

Russian Travelers Forced to Move on From Long-Time Popular Destinations

Countries like Estonia, Latvia and Finland that long relied on Russian travelers took steps to restrict visitors from one of their top source markets. Estonia banned entry to Russian citizens who had previously issued tourist visas while Latvia stopped granting its own tourist visas to Russian travelers. Meanwhile, Finland limited the number of tourist visas it issued to Russian citizens. Skift Global Tourism Reporter Dawit Habtemariam writes those measures were part of a collective strategy to exert pressure on Russia’s government to end the invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Poland barred Russian tourists from entering the country .

The war also accelerated Cyprus’ plans to diversify its tourism base as the Mediterranean island nation banned flights from Russia. Cypriot Deputy Tourism estimated Savvas Perdios estimated the Russian and Ukrainian markets had represented roughly 22 percent of his country’s tourist arrivals, a figure he said went down to zero.

However, Thailand , the Maldives and Dubai have welcomed Russian visitors. The resumption of direct flights from Russia to Thailand sparked a nearly sevenfold increase in Russian visitors from September to November last year, and Thai authorities expect more than 1 million Russian travelers to visit in 2023.

And Dubai and Maldives have grown in popularity for Russian travelers, with Russia serving as among the top source market for both destinations. One Russian national living in the United Arab Emirates said the country was one of the few nations were Russians could travel without difficulty.

Companies and Destinations Hit Hard by the Absence of Russian Travelers

Aleksander Karpetsky, CEO of Dominicana Pro , a Dominican Republic-based tour operator specializing in trips for Russian and Ukrainian travelers, said the lack of visitors from his company’s markets had left his workers unemployed. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s travel industry and economy took a major hit after the state-owned Vietnam Airlines suspended flights to and from Russia shortly after the start of the war. Less than 40,000 Russians traveled to Vietnam in 2022, a nearly 94 percent drop from roughly 650,000 in 2019. In addition, Russian travelers typically spend more than visitors from other countries, according to data gathered from the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism.

Turkey Becomes Business Travel Hub for Displaced Russian Corporations

Turkey’s decision not to issue sanctions against Russia drove a large number of Russian companies to set up shop in the country . Close to 1,400 Russian business opened offices in 2022, more than any other nation. Corporate Travel Editor Matthew Parsons wrote that Russian corporations view Turkey as a neutral trading location because the country enables them to trade with firms prohibited from engaging directly with Russia, especially U.S. businesses. Hundreds of U.S. corporations set up in Turkey after closing their Russian operations.

The number of flights between the two countries has also increased in recent years. Flights from Russia to Turkey rose 45 percent in 2022 compared to the previous year. And Turkish Airlines is upping the number of seats to and from Russia for the upcoming April-to-June quarter 55 percent from 2019 levels.  

Foreign Visitation to Ukraine Rendered Impossible

Although domestic tourism has started to rebound , reaching up to 50 percent of pre-invasion levels , the State Agency for Tourism Development of Ukraine is still urging foreign travelers not to visit the country until the end of the war because it can’t guarantee their safety .

Mariana Oleskiv, chairperson of the State Agency for Tourism Development of Ukraine, is adamant though that Ukraine will be successful in its efforts to rebuild its tourism industry. She delivered an emotional speech on the subject at Skift Global Forum in New York last September, explaining why she’s hopeful about a brighter tourism future for Ukraine. Oleskiv cited Ukraine’s plans to use Crimea, a region currently occupied by Russia, as a destination that could spark Ukraine’s tourism recover.

Russia Looks to Fill Tourism Void With Indian Travelers

Seeking ways to rebound from the enormous tourism hit, Russian tourism authorities turned their focus to wooing visitors from what Moscow perceived as friendly nations — one of them being India . Russia increased their efforts to attract Indian tourists, sending officials to events in India such the Outbound Travel Mart in Mumbai in September. Russian President Vladimir Putin had also proposed visa-free travel between the two countries.

Corporate Travel Agency Relationships Made Complicated

Not only did corporate travel agencies have to conduct emergency repatriations of staff based in Ukraine , they had the thorny issue of how to handle relationships with Russian partners . Many corporate travel agencies have long had ties in Russia because they viewed a presence in the world’s largest country as crucial. While CWT and FCM Travel said they would continue to maintain ties with their Russian partners, Corporate Travel Management suspended its partnership with Moscow-based Unifest and TripActions, which later rebranded as Navan, said it was is no longer supporting travel to Russia and Belarus. 

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Photo credit: A collage created by Skift Creative Strategist Aishwarya Agarwal Aishwarya Agarwal

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Russia Travel Advisory

Travel advisory september 5, 2023, russia - level 4: do not travel.

Updated to remove COVID-specific information and the kidnapping risk indicator as well as updates to security risks.

Do not travel to Russia due to the unpredictable consequences of the  unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian military forces , the potential for  harassment and the singling out of U.S. citizens for detention by Russian government security officials , the  arbitrary enforcement of local law ,  limited flights into and out of Russia , the  Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens in Russia , and the possibility of  terrorism .  U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately.  Exercise increased caution due to  the risk of wrongful detentions.

The U.S. government’s ability to provide routine or emergency services to U.S. citizens in Russia is severely limited, particularly in areas far from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, due to Russian government limitations on travel for embassy personnel and staffing, and the ongoing suspension of operations, including consular services, at U.S. consulates.

There have been numerous reports of drone attacks, explosions, and fires in areas in Western and Southern Russia, particularly near the Russian border with Ukraine, as well as in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the event of an emergency, U.S. citizens should follow instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately.

In September 2022, the Russian government mobilized citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, subject them to mobilization, prevent their departure from Russia, and/or conscript them. 

U.S. citizens should note that U.S. credit and debit cards no longer work in Russia, and options to electronically transfer funds from the United States are extremely limited due to sanctions imposed on Russian banks. There are reports of cash shortages within Russia.

Commercial flight options are extremely limited and are often unavailable on short notice. If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible. The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens to depart the country and transportation options may suddenly become even more limited. Click  here  for Information for U.S. Citizens Seeking to Depart Russia.

U.S. Embassy personnel are generally not permitted to travel on Russian air carriers due to safety concerns.  The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgraded the air safety rating for Russia from Category 1 to Category 2 on April 21, 2022, due to Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport noncompliance with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety standards.  The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) prohibiting U.S. aviation operations into, out of, within, or over those areas of the Moscow Flight Information Region (FIR), the Samara FIR (UWWW) and the Rostov-na-Donu (URRV) FIR within 160NM of the boundaries of the Dnipro (UKDV) Flight Information Regions. For more information, U.S. citizens should consult the  Federal Aviation Administration’s Prohibitions, Restrictions, and Notices .

The right of peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not consistently protected in Russia. U.S. citizens should avoid all political or social protests and not photograph security personnel at these events. Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations and there are numerous reports Russian nationals have been detained for social media activity. 

Country Summary:

U.S. citizens, including former and current U.S. government and military personnel and private citizens engaged in business who are visiting or residing in Russia, have been interrogated without cause and threatened by Russian officials, and may become victims of harassment, mistreatment, and extortion. 

Russian security services may fail to notify the U.S. Embassy of the detention of a U.S. citizen and unreasonably delay U.S. consular assistance. Russian security services are increasing the arbitrary enforcement of local laws to target foreign and international organizations they consider “undesirable.”

Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence. Furthermore, Russian authorities arbitrarily enforce local laws against U.S. citizen religious workers and have opened questionable criminal investigations against U.S. citizens engaged in religious activity. U.S. citizens should avoid travel to Russia to perform work for or volunteer with non-governmental organizations or religious organizations.

There have been multiple security incidents in southwestern Russia related to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government declared martial law in Russia’s regions bordering Ukraine (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov, Krasnodar) on October 20, 2022. The martial law regime allows the rapid introduction of restrictive measures such as curfew, seizure of private property, restriction of entry/exit and freedom of movement, internment of foreigners, forced relocation of local residents, and restrictions on public gatherings. U.S. citizens should avoid all travel to these areas.

Recent legislation has expanded the ability of Russian authorities to detain, question, and arrest individuals suspected of acting against Russia’s interests, including posts on personal social media accounts, engaging with foreign and international entities, discrediting the Russian state or military, as well as advocating for the rights of LGBTQI+ persons.

Terrorist groups, both transnational and local terrorist organizations, and individuals inspired by extremist ideology continue plotting possible attacks in Russia. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs and systems, markets/shopping malls, local government facilities, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, parks, major sporting and cultural events, educational institutions, airports, and other public areas. Travel to the North Caucasus (including Chechnya and Mt. Elbrus) is prohibited for U.S. government employees and strongly discouraged for U.S. citizens.

The international community, including the United States and Ukraine, does not recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea as well as four other Ukrainian oblasts – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya – that Russia has purported to annex more recently. There is extensive Russian Federation military presence in these areas. Russia staged its further invasion of Ukraine, in part, from occupied Crimea, and Russia is likely to take further military actions in Crimea, and the four other Ukrainian oblasts are the subject of intensive fighting. There are continuing abuses against foreigners and the local population by the occupation authorities in these regions, particularly against those who are seen as challenging Russia’s authority.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv continues to provide consular services to U.S. citizens in Crimea as well as four other Ukrainian oblasts partially occupied by Russia – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya, although the ongoing conflict severely restricts the Embassy’s ability to provide services in these areas.

Read the  country information page  for additional information on travel to Russia.

If you decide to travel to Russia:

  • Familiarize yourself with the information on  what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas .
  • Have a contingency plan in place that does not rely on U.S. government assistance. Review the  Traveler’s Checklist .
  • Monitor local and international media for breaking events and adjust your contingency plans based on the new information.
  • Ensure travel documents are valid and easily accessible.
  • Visit our website for  Travel to High-Risk Areas .
  • Enroll in the  Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP)  to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency.
  • Follow the Department of State on  Facebook  and  Twitter .
  • Review the  Country Security Report  for Russia.
  • Visit the CDC page for the latest  Travel Health Information  related to your travel.

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Is it possible to visit Russia as a tourist in 2023?

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Yes, traveling to Russia as a tourist in 2023 is possible. Here’s what to look out for if you’re preparing for your dream trip. 

Visa requirements

First things first, it is worth checking if you need a visa to cross the Russian border. In 2023, citizens of some 65 countries can visit Russia without a visa. This includes most of the post-Soviet states like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, as well as Ukraine.

Additionally, citizens of some countries in South and Central America – including Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Panama, Peru, Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Uruguay, Ecuador – do not need a visa to travel to Russia.

Citizens of Israel, South Africa, Cuba, Montenegro, Thailand, South Korea, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Andorra, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Mongolia, Botswana enjoy visa-free regime with Russia, too.

For the full list of countries, click here .

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* Data for the infographics is from November 2022 and was obtained from the Russian consular information website.

* The status of a particular country is subject to change. We advise additionally researching the relevant information in each particular case before booking any trip to Russia.

* Visa waivers may apply for holders of diplomatic or military service passports, select businessmen, air crew members, members of a ship or train crew, professional truck drivers, organized tourist groups and people who have official permission to live in some border regions.

Is it safe to travel to Russia right now?

Russia as a travel destination received a fair share of negative PR from various sources in early 2022.

Some official travel accounts run by governments of countries like the U.S. , Australia , Great Britain and others advise their citizens to abstain from non-essential travel to the country.

That said, it is always advisable to evaluate safety risks when traveling to any foreign country. Traveling to Russia is no exception. However, Moscow, St. Petersburg and other major Russian cities have been widely regarded as being safe , especially in comparison to other popular tourist destinations.

Little has changed in major Russian cities from the point of view of tourists or local residents. Consequently, the most extreme and vocal concerns over security may be disregarded as being too alarmist.

That said, logistics pose the greatest challenge for tourists traveling to Russia in 2023. A number of countries closed their national airspace for Russian air companies resulting in more complicated logistics for tourists who intend to visit Russia in 2023.

However, specific changes depend on a particular country from where a tourist departs. In some cases, direct flight routes remain intact. For example, nothing has changed for tourists from China, India, Turkey, Middle Eastern countries and the majority of post-Soviet states. They can book direct flights to Russia’s main airports.

Tourists departing from European capitals will have to book connecting flights via Turkey or countries in the Middle East. This makes tickets more expensive and flights longer. However, it is still possible to travel to Russia from virtually any country in the world.

It should be noted that every country has its own nuances that must be taken into account beforehand. For example, the Indian Embassy in Russia advises Indian nationals against traveling to Russia via third countries. According to the embassy website, Indian travelers should choose only direct flights from Delhi to Moscow, otherwise they risk being denied entry into Russia.

In another instance, the British government prohibited its citizens from purchasing tickets on Russian airlines that were under sanctions. Nonetheless, the British authorities made an exception for those journeys originating in or within Russia: in this case, British nationals may purchase tickets from Russian companies without breaching UK sanctions.

Covid restrictions, vaccination status & quarantine

In 2022, Russian authorities canceled Covid-related restrictions for Russian citizens and foreign tourists, alike.

In 2023, foreign nationals no longer need to provide results of a negative PCR test when entering Russia by any mode of transport. Therefore, foreign travelers no longer need to take a coronavirus test in advance before departure.

Furthermore, Russian authorities lifted Covid-related restrictions that required visitors to provide a specific reason for visiting the country facilitating tourist traveling.

The only remaining Covid-related regulation is a requirement to fill in a questionnaire. Passengers – both Russian and foreign citizens – will be asked to fill out the paper version of the questionnaire on board during their flight to Russia.

Click here to find out who can travel to Russia without a visa in 2023.

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Russian tourists seek new destinations as Europe shuts its doors over Ukraine war

The EU has imposed restrictions on Russians travelling to Europe following the invasion of Ukraine, with some countries – notably Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Poland and the Czech Republic – imposing an outright ban. The constraints have opened up new markets around the world for Russia’s billion-dollar tourism industry. 

Issued on: 23/05/2023 - 18:02

Known for its combination of tropical beaches, lush rice paddies and volcanic mountains, Bali is a renowned tourist haven that attracts visitors from all over the world.  But last year the Indian Ocean island  began to see an increase  in a certain kind  of traveller: some 58,000 Russians  had  travelled to Bali by the end of the year. In January 2023 alone, visitor numbers from Russia  jumped to 22,500 ,  according to Indonesian government data, making Russians the  second-largest  visitor group  after  Australians. 

In another tourist hotspot on the opposite side of the world, the figures tell a different story.  So far this year,  “ Paris had 95.8% fewer Russian tourists arriving by air between January and May [compared with 2019],” said a spokesperson from the Paris tourist board. In the summer months, Russian arrivals in the French capital – one of the most visited cities in Europe – are expected to increase by less than  1 percent. 

Since the  full-scale  invasion of Ukraine in  February 2022 , it has become much harder for Russians to travel to popular holiday destinations in the European Union. Getting travel visas approved is more expensive and less straightforward , Russian air carriers have been banned from  flying over or into  the EU, and Russian oligarchs can no longer land their jets  in some places.    

There is also the prospect of a  hostile welcome  for Russian tourists;  a little more than a year since  the invasion of Ukraine, the public perception of Russia throughout EU countries is largely that of “ an adversary ”,  according to a multi-nation poll conducted in January.  

Yet millions of Russians are still traveling  abroad. Some  22.5 million  overseas trips  were taken by Russian tourists in 2022, up from 19.2 million in 2021, with Turkey the leading destination. 

And Russian holidaymakers are now beating a path  to  non-Western destinations in record numbers  instead of Europe.  

Changing destinations

Among those  nations that  have seen the biggest  boom in Russian visitors  are Thailand, the UAE, Turkey, the Maldives and Egypt.   

Thailand, especially, is poised to “benefit significantly from the EU’s ban on Russian travel as the market is forced to change its preferred destinations”, according to  a report  from business intelligence provider GlobalData.  

Russia ranked 14th in international tourism  with expenditures  at around $11.4 billion in 2021, according to Statista.   

And countries  around the world are keen to claim a share of  that  market. Sri Lanka, Morocco and Thailand plan to open direct flight paths with Russia to facilitate  travel while India,  Myanmar and Oman  recently held  talks with Russia to discuss increasing tourism. 

Iran signed an agreement with Russia on Friday  to boost mutual tourism  cooperation,  just days after Cuba signed a tourism development deal aiming  to increase the number of Russian visitors to up to 500,000  a year.    

For some countries, boosting Russian tourism is a way to help balance economic ties with Russia. Turkey is one of the world’s  largest consumers  of Russian energy, and its tourism industry is largely reliant on Russian holidaymakers.  Its tourism sector has remained largely unaffected by war in Ukraine.  It “did not impose sanctions on  Russia,  so it has become the No. 1 destination for Russian  tourists”,  says  Faruk Balli, professor at the School of Economics and Finance at Massey University  in  New Zealand .     

But in  Cyprus and Greece, a  lack of Russian tourists –  who  typically represent a large percentage of overall visitors – has  affected  the economy and  prompted  a rethink   of tourism models.    

Luring tourists despite sanctions

Some   4.6 million   Russians visited Turkey in 2022, more than any other foreign country. But it is not only a destination in its own right   – as Russians can no longer fly directly to the EU, Istanbul has emerged as a  key layover for  holidaymakers and business travellers en route to Europe.  

Although  fewer  Russian travellers are visiting EU countries,  the impact is not being felt too keenly in Paris.  “Russian visitors typically represent one percent of all tourists,” a spokesperson for the Paris tourist office said.   

Larger losses  may be felt in Russia itself.  The number of foreign visitors to Russia  fell by 96.1%  in 2022 compared with figures from before the Covid pandemic in 2019, according to the Association of Tour Operators of  Russia.   

Since  the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,  demand for travel to Russia has fallen among  both  EU and US tourists. Western sanctions have also complicated travel to Russia through flight restrictions and the impossibility of using Visa and Mastercards issued by foreign banks. 

The Russian government is promoting  domestic tourism  to revitalise the sector, while also stepping up efforts to court international  visitors. Plans are under way  to  coordinate   the   Mir Russian payment system with the Indian equivalent RuPay  and to waive Russian visa requirements for visitors from some Arab and  Latin American  countries. 

The return of Chinese tour groups in  February 2023,  after pandemic travel restrictions were lifted, is  also being touted as a sign that Russia remains a thriving tourist destination. Russian  state media has reported that  the  numbers of Chinese visitors to Russia could return to  pre-pandemic levels  within three years.  

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Russian Tourism in Crimea Is Down, but Many Still Shrug off Risks

Reuters

People walk along an embankment in Yalta, Crimea, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Alexey Pavlishak/file photo

YALTA, Crimea (Reuters) - In years past, Siberian Viktor Motorin could hop on a plane and arrive in Crimea just four hours later to relax at his holiday apartment. Now he must fly first to Moscow and then spend a day and a half on the train.

The war in Ukraine, now 18 months old, is making it harder for many Russians to reach their favourite summer haunts in the Black Sea region of Crimea, which Moscow seized and annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

And safety is a factor for some, especially after two major Ukrainian attacks since last October on the 19 km (12 mile) Crimean Bridge that links Russia by road and rail to the peninsula.

But after weighing up such concerns, Motorin, from the city of Khanty-Mansiysk in western Siberia, said he decided that making his annual trip was still a risk well worth taking.

"We calculated that it was reasonably safe, especially when my colleagues had already come here in June, early July. They said it was all calm here with no problems on the Crimea Bridge. The goods, the prices, everything is like before," he said.

'NEW CHALLENGES'

Russians have been drawn to the lush scenery and rocky coastline of Crimea since tsarist times, but now the choice of where to go on holiday is complicated by several factors relating to the war.

Sanctions have severed flights to the West, and the weakness of Russia's rouble currency has raised the cost of trips to other popular destinations, such as Turkey and Thailand.

The Latest Photos From Ukraine

A woman walks backdropped by bas-relief sculptures depicting war scenes in the National Museum of the History of Ukraine in the Second World War in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, April 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

Commercial airspace over Crimea has been closed since Russia launched what it calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine in February 2022, meaning visitors must arrive either by car or rail. Arduous journeys are often compounded by long queues at the bridge.

"We came by train: it took two days and four hours - very long this year because we were afraid to take the car. It's the fifth year we've come here on holiday," said Olga Morskova from Rybinsk, north of Moscow, some 1,370 km (850 miles) from Crimea.

Alexei Volkov, president of the National Union of Hospitality Industries, said in an interview that tourist numbers in Crimea were expected to be down 20-30% this year to between 6 and 6.5 million people.

"What's special about this year is the number of difficulties caused by the special military operation and new challenges for the hospitality industry and local residents when (emergency) situations have happened more often," he said.

"It is the most difficult season for the past nine years that we have been a part of Russia," he added, referring to the 2014 annexation which is regarded as illegal by most countries and which Ukraine has vowed to reverse.

Other Russian Black Sea resorts, at less risk of attacks, have seen increased demand. Volkov said hotel occupancy in Sochi was at 100%, and even the port city of Novorossiysk had seen a 6% uptick in visitors.

Fewer visitors to Crimea have meant more for Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea and Dagestan in Russia's north Caucasus region, he said.

FATAL CROSSING

For one Russian couple, the choice of Crimea as a holiday destination proved fatal. The man and woman were both killed, and their 14-year-old daughter was wounded, when their car was caught in an explosion when they crossed the bridge on July 17, travelling at night to avoid traffic jams.

The head of Ukraine's SBU security service, Vasyl Maliuk, later claimed responsibility for the attack, and a previous one that caused severe damage to the bridge last October.

Last week Russia's defence ministry said its forces had destroyed 42 Ukraine-launched drones over Crimea in a single day. Its Russian-appointed governor said two more were downed on Monday.

Yet despite the proximity of the war, some Russians interviewed by Reuters were keen to play down the dangers, or dismiss them entirely.

"No, absolutely no fears. We went without thinking twice, not afraid of anything; everything is good," said Alexander Semashko from Stavropol in southern Russia.

"The goal of our trip is, of course, to have a rest, and support Russian tour operators, hoteliers, and Russian tourism, no doubt."

Sergei Lenkov, from Vologda north of Moscow, said he had confidence in Russia's air defence systems.

"There are no risks really. The sky is protected. So there isn't anything to get upset about," he said.

(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Mark Trevelyan and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Gareth Jones and Sharon Singleton)

Copyright 2023 Thomson Reuters .

Photos You Should See - May 2024

TOPSHOT - A woman wades through flood waters at an inundated residential area in Garissa, on May 9, 2024. Kenya is grappling with one of its worst floods in recent history, the latest in a string of weather catastrophes, following weeks of extreme rainfall scientists have linked to a changing climate. At least 257 people have been killed and more than 55,000 households have been displaced as murky waters submerge entire villages, destroy roads and inundate dams. (Photo by LUIS TATO / AFP) (Photo by LUIS TATO/AFP via Getty Images)

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Visa-free travel to Russia? It's in the works for those travelling in a group, says minister

Russia wants to replicate the visa-free tourist exchanges model with India which Moscow has already established with China and Iran read more

Visa-free travel to Russia? It's in the works for those travelling in a group, says minister

Moscow: Consultations between India and Russia on a bilateral agreement to ease travel will begin in June, according to a Russian minister. Moscow and New Delhi are preparing to strengthen their tourism ties by launching visa-free group tourist exchanges.

“India is at the final stage of internal state coordination,” Nikita Kondratyev, director of the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s Department of Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects, was quoted by RT News as saying on Wednesday.

Speaking on the sidelines of the International Economic Forum Russia - Islamic World: KazanForum 2024 in Kazan, the minister stated that the first discussion on a draft agreement is scheduled for June, with a signing expected by the end of the year.

“Russia and India are set to strengthen their tourism ties as they gear up for the launch of visa-free group tourist exchanges. The first round of consultations between the two nations is scheduled for June, with an aim to finalise a bilateral agreement by the end of the year,” Kondratyev said.

He added that Russia plans to replicate the success of visa-free tourist exchanges already established with China and Iran.

Russia and China initiated their visa-free group tourist exchange on 1 August last year.

Similarly, a visa-free group tourist exchange between Russia and Iran commenced on the same date, ushering in a new era of tourism cooperation.

According to data from India’s Ministry of Tourism, a total of 17,567 Russian had visited India in 2021. As per a Statista report, Russian tourists were not among the top 10 countries in the foreign tourist arrivals recorded in India in 2022.

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May 15, 2024 - Russia's war in Ukraine

By Heather Chen, Sana Noor Haq, Adrienne Vogt and Maureen Chowdhury, CNN

Our live coverage of  Russia's war in Ukraine has moved here .

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing at the start of a 2-day state visit to China

From CNN's Abel Alvarado

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing early Thursday morning local time to begin a two-day state visit to China, according to TASS and Chinese state media CCTV.

Russia is stepping up disinformation campaign against Zelensky, US intelligence shows

From CNN's Alex Marquardt

Russia has stepped up its disinformation efforts to discredit Ukraine’s  President Volodymyr Zelensky  and raise questions about his legitimacy in recent months, US intelligence agencies have observed.

A recently downgraded intelligence assessment shared with CNN says that Russia has seized on various recent events to fuel criticism about Zelensky’s abilities and place as Ukraine’s leader, a senior Biden administration official said in an interview.

Russia has spread disinformation about Zelensky since before the war started but recent intelligence shows “it’s definitely increasing,” the official said.

Russia has highlighted two main areas in this recent disinformation push, the intelligence indicates: Ukraine’s  painful withdrawal  from the eastern city of Avdiivka and the fact that Ukraine postponed its presidential election scheduled for this Spring due to the war.

Wider impacts: The US is more concerned about the impact of the disinformation on countries abroad than on Ukrainians’ confidence in Zelensky, the official said.

“That’s why we’re briefing our allies and partners about this,” the official said. “We want to make sure that this type of Russian disinformation doesn’t take hold and other countries that might not realize, ‘Oh, of course, they can’t hold elections because they’re in a state of martial law as a consequence of Russia’s war.’”

Dive deeper into Russia's disinformation campaign and what it could mean.

Blinken visits Kyiv and reaffirms US support for Ukraine as fighting in Kharkiv intensifies. Here's the latest

From CNN staff

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (C) leaves after his visit to an agricultural logistics and transshipment facility in Vyshneve, Kyiv region, on May 15. The United States will back Ukraine until the country's security is "guaranteed," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech in Kyiv on May 14.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded his trip to Kyiv on Wednesday, where he reaffirmed the Biden administration's support for Ukraine as Russia's advances continue in the Kharkiv region of the country.

Earlier Wednesday, Blinken announced $2 billion in foreign military financing for Ukraine and said much-needed ammunition and weapons are being rushed to the front lines. The US State Department acknowledged that the $2 billion in foreign military financing is coming primarily from the recently passed Ukraine Security supplemental and $400 million of it is coming from existing Foreign Military Financing (FMF) that had not previously been allocated to Ukraine.

Blinken also said that the US remains "committed" to helping Ukraine win the war against Russia, but it is not encouraging strikes on Russian territory. Blinken added that Washington strongly supports a Ukrainian peace summit set to take place next month in Switzerland. 

Here are more of the latest headlines:

  • Kharkiv and Russian gains: Ukrainian officials suggested further gains by Russian forces on Wednesday in the Kharkiv region, as Moscow continues its push into northeastern Ukraine. The town of Vovchansk, located about 60 kilometers (or about 37 miles) northeast of Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv, is seeing some of the most intense battles in areas near the border, with one police official saying Russian forces are already in the town.
  • Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will halt all international events scheduled for the coming days, his office announced, as Russian troops push into the northeastern Kharkiv region .
  • UNICEF report: At least 1,993 children in Ukraine have been killed or wounded since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to the UN's children's agency (UNICEF), reiterating calls for a ceasefire. On average, at least two children lose their lives in Ukraine every day, UNICEF reported on Tuesday.

US not encouraging Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, Blinken says 

From CNN's Radina Gigova in London 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 15.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US remains "committed" to helping Ukraine win the war against Russia, but it is not encouraging strikes on Russian territory. 

“We’ve not encouraged or enabled strikes outside Ukraine but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war, a war it's conducting in defense of its freedom, of its sovereignty, of its territorial integrity and we’ll continue to back Ukraine with the equipment it needs to succeed," Blinken said on Wednesday during a joint news conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minster Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv. 

Blinken also announced that the US will provide an additional $2 billion in foreign military financing for Ukraine, adding "we put this together in a first-of-its-kind defense enterprise fund."

The fund will have three components, Blinken said, including:

  • Providing weapons for Ukraine now
  • Investing in Ukraine's defense industrial base
  • Financing military equipment purchases from other countries

"Of course, everyone's eyes are focused on the situation in the east and northeast, Kharkiv in particular. And so the newest support that I just announced, but particularly the $60 billion supplemental, we know is coming at a critical time," Blinken said. 

Zelensky condemns shooting of Slovakia's pro-Russian prime minister

Rescue workers take Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was shot and injured, to a hospital in the town of Banska Bystrica, Slovakia, on May 15.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called a shooting attack on Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico "appalling."

"We strongly condemn this act of violence against our neighboring partner state's head of government. Every effort should be made to ensure that violence does not become the norm in any country, form, or sphere," Zelensky wrote in a post on X Wednesday.

Fico was shot multiple times, according to a statement on his official Facebook page, adding he is currently in a life-threatening condition.

"We sincerely hope Robert Fico recovers soon and express our solidarity with the people of Slovakia," Zelensky continued.

For context: Fico won a third term as Slovakian prime minister last October after running a campaign that criticized Western support for Ukraine. Ahead of the election, Fico made no secret of his sympathies toward the Kremlin and blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Vladimir Putin into launching the invasion, repeating the false narrative Russia’s president has used to justify his invasion.

Fico, who began his fourth term last October, has shifted Slovakia’s foreign policy toward pro-Russian positions and initiated reforms in criminal law and media regulations, raising concerns about the erosion of the rule of law.

Fico also had pledged an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and promised to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in what would upend Slovakia’s staunch backing for Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials suggest there are more Russian gains amid ongoing push in Kharkiv region 

From CNN's Radina Gigova and Maria Kostenko 

Rescue workers help Liudmila Kalashnik, 88, after evacuation from Vovchansk, Ukraine, on May 12.

Ukrainian officials suggested further gains by Russian forces on Wednesday in the Kharkiv region, as Moscow continues its push into northeastern Ukraine.

The town of Vovchansk, located about 60 kilometers (or about 37 miles) northeast of Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv, is seeing some of the most intense battles in areas near the border, with one police official saying Russian forces are already in the town. 

"The situation in Vovchansk is extremely difficult. The enemy is taking positions on the streets of Vovchansk," said Oleksii Kharkivskyi, chief patrol officer of the Vovchansk Police Department, urging residents to evacuate. 

Gen. Serhii "Marcel" Melnyk, the commander of the Kharkiv city defense forces, also suggested there have been changes in Ukrainian positions in Vovchansk and a possible tactical withdrawal. 

"Heavy fighting is ongoing. In some areas, near Vovchansk and Lukiantsi, Ukrainian defenders were forced to move to more favorable positions to more effectively use their forces and defend the region from the offensive," Melnyk said Wednesday. 

At least 24 people, including four children, were injured as a result of Russian shelling in various parts of the Kharkiv region on Wednesday, Melnyk said.

The Ukrainian monitoring group DeepStateMap indicated on Wednesday that Russian forces have reached northeastern parts of Vovchansk as they continue to push further south into Ukrainian territory. Russian forces have taken control of more than nine villages near the border in recent days. 

Mandatory evacuations continue from all northern border settlements, according to Roman Semenukha, deputy head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration. Nearly 8,000 people have been evacuated from these areas since May 10, when Russia launched its push. 

Nearly 2,000 children have been killed or injured since Russia invaded Ukraine, says UNICEF

From CNN's Sana Noor Haq

ODESA, UKRAINE - APRIL 27, 2022 - Relatives and friends attend the funeral service of Valeriia Hlodan, her three-month-old baby girl Kira and her mother Liudmyla Yavkina at Transfiguration Cathedral, Odesa, Ukraine, on April 27.

At least 1,993 children in Ukraine have been killed or wounded since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to the UN's children's agency (UNICEF), reiterating calls for a ceasefire.

On average, at least two children lose their lives in Ukraine every day, UNICEF reported on Tuesday.

“Ukraine’s children urgently need safety, stability, access to safe learning, child protection services, and psychosocial support," the agency said in a statement. "More than anything, Ukraine's children need peace."

Mental health impact: The war in Ukraine has "harmfully affected" the mental health and wellbeing of children , UNICEF said, adding that half of teenagers report trouble sleeping. At least one in five suffer intrusive thoughts and flashbacks.

Loss of education: Almost half of children enrolled in school in Ukraine have been robbed of in-person education, according to the report. Nearly one million children across the country cannot access any in-person learning "due to insecurity," UNICEF added.

Earlier this year, CNN reported on Ukrainian children attending newly built bunker schools in the northern city of Kharkiv, as daily Russian strikes rained down overhead.

US secretary of state announces $2 billion in foreign military financing for Ukraine

From CNN's Radina Gigova in London

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hold a joint press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 15.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Wednesday the provision of additional $2 billion in foreign military financing for Ukraine and said much-needed weapons and ammunition are being rushed to the front lines. 

"Ukraine is facing this renewed brutal Russian onslaught," Blinken said during a news conference in Kyiv, speaking alongside Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, adding he discussed weapons deliveries with Kuleba and President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

"We are rushing ammunition, armored vehicles, missiles, air defenses. Rushing them to get to the front lines to protect soldiers, to protect civilians," Blinken said, pointing out that air defenses are "a top priority."

Blinken also said Washington strongly supports a Ukrainian peace summit set to take place next month in Switzerland. 

This post has been updated with the latest comments from Blinken.

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U.S. soldier detained in Russia and accused of stealing, officials say

A U.S. soldier was detained in Russia last week, a U.S. Army spokesperson said in a statement.

The soldier, Staff Sgt. Gordon Black, had been stationed in South Korea and traveled to Russia on his own, not on official business, according to four U.S. officials.

He had finished his deployment and was heading back to the U.S. when he made a side trip to Vladivostok, Russia, to visit a woman he was romantically involved with, officials said. They added that he had traveled there without permission from his superiors and that he is being held in pretrial confinement.

The soldier is accused of stealing from a woman, the officials said. It was not immediately clear whether it was the same woman he was visiting.

The soldier was detained Thursday, U.S. Army spokesperson Cynthia O. Smith said in a statement.

Smith said the soldier was apprehended in Vladivostok "on charges of criminal misconduct."

"The Russian Federation notified the U.S. Department of State of the criminal detention in accordance with the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations," Smith said. "The Army notified his family and the U.S. Department of State is providing appropriate consular support to the Soldier in Russia. Given the sensitivity of this matter, we are unable to provide additional details at this time."

Great Kremlin Palace

Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said he is "deeply concerned" by reports that a soldier was detained in Russia."Putin has a long history of holding American citizens hostage," McCaul said in a post shared on X . "A warning to all Americans—as the State Department has said, it is not safe to travel to Russia."

Current travel guidance from the U.S. State Department restricts travel for citizens to Russia. "Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions," according to the State Department advisory. The Defense Department also restricts travel for Pentagon personnel.

Black is one of a number of Americans detained in Russia, including several civilians.

Arrests of Americans in Russia have increased as the relationship between the two countries has sunk to Cold War lows, The Associated Press reported . The U.S. has accused Russia of targeting Americans and using them as bargaining chips, according to the AP.

Among the most prominent U.S. citizens to be detained are Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was jailed last March , and former Marine Paul Whelan, who was arrested in 2018. The U.S. government has said that both Gershkovich and Whelan are wrongfully detained.

WNBA star Brittney Griner spent 10 months in Russian penal colonies for drug-related charges but was released  in a  rare prisoner exchange  for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout in 2022.

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Courtney Kube is a correspondent covering national security and the military for the NBC News Investigative Unit.

Mosheh Gains is a Pentagon producer for NBC News.

Russia’s Putin eyes greater support from China for Ukraine war effort

In a visit also focused on trade, the Russian leader hails the partnership with China that guarantees energy security.

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Soviet martyrs monument - built to commemorate the Soviet Red Army soldiers who died during World War II, in the northeastern city of Harbin on May 17, 2024. (Photo by Alexander RYUMIN / POOL / AFP) / ** EDITOR'S NOTE : THIS IMAGE IS DISTRIBUTED BY RUSSIAN STATE OWNED AGENCY SPUTNIK **

Russian President Vladimir Putin is wrapping up his visit to neighbouring China, aiming to win greater support from Beijing for his military operation in Ukraine and expand crucial trade to his country’s increasingly isolated economy.

Russia and China’s partnership has only grown closer since the invasion of Ukraine, and Beijing has rebuffed Western claims that it is aiding Moscow’s war effort while offering a critical economic lifeline with trade hitting $240bn in 2023.

Keep reading

‘old friend’ putin and china’s xi strengthen strategic ties at summit, what is behind russia’s nuclear escalation threat, is russia’s assault on northeastern ukraine already losing steam.

Putin visited the northeastern city of Harbin on Friday, the final day of his two-day visit, to highlight the two countries’ “trade and cultural exchange”, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.

On Thursday, Putin arrived in Beijing on his first trip abroad since his March re-election, meeting President Xi Jinping for talks in which the leaders framed their nations’ ties as a stabilising force in the international arena.

The two leaders “had an in-depth exchange of views on the Ukraine crisis”, Xinhua reported, adding that Xi spoke of China’s “consistent position and efforts to promote the political settlement of the Ukraine issue”.

China has not sent weapons and ammunition to Russia and its peace plan unveiled last year was criticised by both Ukraine and its Western allies.

There are limits to the two nations’ ties, despite their insistence that it is limitless, said Alexey Muraviev, a Russia specialist and associate professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University in Perth, Australia.

“The limits are that the two countries don’t have a formal alliance agreement. To me, that’s very clearly a sign that there are limitations to what seems to be a limitless relationship,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that neither side is prepared to “unconditionally commit to support each other” on issues like Ukraine.

Xi said he would continue to work with Putin to “achieve steady and lasting progress, bring more benefits to the two peoples, and contribute to world security and stability”.

Western countries have been heaping pressure on China to cut off support for Russia’s economy as the war in Ukraine grinds on.

Putin visited Harbin to promote trade ties. Lying just a few hundred kilometres from the border with Russia, Harbin has long served as a key hub for cross-border trade and cultural exchange.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of a Russia-China trade exposition on Friday, Putin hailed energy ties between the two countries and promised to “strengthen” them.

“Russia is ready and able to continuously power the Chinese economy, businesses, cities and towns with affordable and environmentally clean energy,” he said.

He later told reporters that Russia’s offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region was aimed at creating a buffer zone but there were no plans to capture it.

Russian forces have made steady gains in the northeastern border region after launching a new incursion last week. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the area and acknowledged that the situation remained “extremely difficult” but was “generally under control”.

Putin said Russian troops were making daily advances there according to plan”.

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Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next?

An antitank obstacle is reflected on a window above a woman carrying a yellow bag.

By Michael Kofman and Rob Lee

Mr. Kofman is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Lee is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Both are experts on the Russian military and modern warfare.

Last week, the Russian military opened a new front in its invasion of Ukraine.

Launching an offensive into the Kharkiv region, Russian forces quickly advanced several kilometers, managing to reoccupy several villages that were liberated during Ukraine’s successful offensive in September 2022. They have not yet reached the main line of defenses east of the city, which are held by brigades better equipped and more experienced than those closer to the border. But the situation is serious.

By threatening Ukraine’s second most populous city, Russia hopes to pin Ukrainian resources in the region, exposing the front elsewhere. Ukraine’s immediate priority is to stabilize the front line and prevent a major Russian breakthrough, which it may be able to do. But it is dealing with a series of challenges that have accumulated since last year and will not be quick to resolve. Despite the recent passing of the aid bill in Congress, which freed up billions in assistance for Kyiv, things are likely to get worse before they get better.

Russia’s aim is not to take Kharkiv, but to menace it by advancing toward the city and threatening it with artillery. While Russia lacks the forces to assault the city itself, the operation is designed to create a dilemma. Ukrainian forces are already stretched relatively thin; by drawing Ukraine’s reserves and better units to the defense of Kharkiv, the Russian attack weakens other parts of the front line. Russia remains focused on occupying the remainder of the Donetsk region in the east, looking to seize key transit hubs and population centers.

In recent days, some Ukrainian units have already been redeployed from Donetsk to Kharkiv, and it appears that Ukraine is deploying individual battalions to reinforce other parts of the front. This risks leaving Ukrainian forces in Donetsk even more vulnerable if Russia commits its reserves in that direction. Russian forces are also applying pressure near Kupiansk, to Kharkiv’s east, and in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. Incursions along the border in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions may be to come.

The Russian offensive comes at a time of vulnerability for Ukraine. Since last fall, the country has faced three interrelated problems: lack of ammunition, manpower and fortifications. Ukraine has made progress improving its fortifications over the spring, and the aid package from the United States should alleviate its ammunition shortages. But Ukraine’s manpower has continued to deteriorate especially where it counts: in its infantry.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive last summer culminated primarily because of attrition among its infantry, and it has struggled to replace those losses ever since. In practice, this means there are often too few soldiers manning trenches and not enough infantry to develop a sustainable rotation, risking exhaustion over time. This also creates a pernicious effect of discouraging others to volunteer. Many Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and many soldiers are over the age of 40.

To be clear, Ukraine is not out of men. The situation is the consequence of policy choices, a rickety mobilization system and many months of political intransigence before the recent passing of a series of mobilization laws. These laws aim to widen the pool of soldiers by lowering the draft eligibility age , punishing those who try to evade service , allowing some convicts to serve and providing incentives for volunteers. They hold the promise to address Ukraine’s manpower problem, but much will depend on how they are carried out. The situation, in any case, will take months to improve.

Lacking sufficient forces and with a deficit of ammunition, Ukraine’s military responds to Russian breakthroughs by moving its best brigades and elite units around the front. This firefighting approach, which happened during the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiika , means that the best units do not have enough time to rest and regenerate. Ukraine also resorts to deploying individual battalions piecemeal to reinforce parts of the front without the rest of their brigade. These are short-term solutions that come with longer-term consequences, as these units degrade over time.

In contrast, Russia managed to address its manpower problems last year and now recruits approximately 30,000 contract servicemen a month. Many of these recruits are hardly ideal soldiers and are also in their 40s. But this physical advantage — combined with artillery, drones and glide bomb strikes — has given Russia a quantitative edge.

Yet Russia’s advantages are not necessarily decisive. The quality of its forces, together with leadership losses, have limited Russia’s ability to conduct larger-scale operations — it’s why Russian forces struggle to turn advances into breakthroughs and have not been able to make more significant gains. Russia is also burning through equipment, most of which comes from storage, and will face equipment shortages in 2025.

Even with the passage of the U.S. aid bill, Ukraine faces a difficult year. American assistance has bought Ukraine time and gives certainty about the resources that will be available. The funding could be sufficient for Ukraine to hold and, in the best case, restore the offensive potential of its military. It offers an opportunity. But the future hinges on what the West — which plays a significant role in training, intelligence and other forms of support — and Ukraine can make of it.

If Ukraine can limit Russia to modest gains this year, then Moscow’s window of opportunity is likely to close and its relative advantage may begin to diminish in 2025. This is not just a matter of Ukraine getting ammunition or weapons from the West, but also of effectively managing forces, addressing the long-running deficit of manpower and establishing proper defenses. Ukraine will have to defend itself while at the same time working to reconstitute its military. In the coming months, much hangs in the balance.

Michael Kofman ( @KofmanMichael ) is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Rob Lee ( @RALee85 ) is a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips . And here’s our email: [email protected] .

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Zelenskiy postpones travel abroad as Russian troops enter Ukraine border town

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Aftermath of a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv

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Russian president Putin to make a state visit to China this week

FILE - Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo prior to their talks on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023. President Putin will make a two-day state visit to China this week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, May 14, 2024.(Sergei Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo prior to their talks on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023. President Putin will make a two-day state visit to China this week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, May 14, 2024.(Sergei Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

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BEIJING (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a two-day state visit to China this week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, in the latest show of unity between the two authoritarian allies against the U.S.-led Western liberal global order.

Putin will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping during his visit starting on Thurday, the ministry said, saying the two leaders would discuss “cooperation in various fields of bilateral relations ... as well as international and regional issues of common concern.” No details were mentioned.

The Kremlin in a statement confirmed the trip and said Putin was going on Xi’s invitation. It said that this will be Putin’s first foreign trip since he was sworn in as president and began his fifth term in office.

China has backed Russia politically in the conflict in Ukraine and has continued to export machine tools, electronics and other items seen as contributing to the Russian war effort, without actually exporting weaponry.

China is also a major export market for energy supplies that keep the Kremlin’s coffers full.

China has sought to project itself as a neutral party in the conflict, but has declared a “no limits” relationship with Russia in opposition to the West. The sides have also held a series of joint military drills and China has consistently opposed economic sanctions against Russia in response to its now two-year-old campaign of conquest against Ukraine.

This image released by Maxar Technologies shows a damaged plane, likely a MiG 31 fighter aircraft, at Belbek air base, near Sevastopol, in Crimea, Thursday, May 16, 2024. (Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies via AP)

The two continent-sized authoritarian states are increasingly in dispute with democracies and NATO while seeking to gain influence in Africa, the Middle East and South America.

Putin’s visit comes just days ahead of Monday’s inauguration of William Lai Ching-te as the next president of Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that China claims as its own territory and threatens to annex by force if necessary.

Xi returned last week from a five-day visit to Europe, including stops in Hungary and Serbia, countries viewed as close to Russia. The trip, Xi’s first to the continent in five years, was seen as an attempt to increase China’s influence and drive a wedge between the EU and NATO on one side, and a yet-to-be-defined bloc of authoritarian nations on the other underpinned by Chinese economic influence that has been wavering amid a housing crisis and dramatically slower domestic economic growth.

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China and Russia to shore up ‘no limits’ partnership with Thursday meetup

Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing for meetings with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping as Moscow’s war against Ukraine drags on — with Beijing’s support.

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In his first trip abroad since securing a fifth term , Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing on Thursday to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to reinforce ties with China and their joint efforts to push back against a U.S.-led global order.

The trip will come barely a week after Xi visited Europe for the first time in five years and declined to use his influence to pressure Moscow to end its war against Ukraine. As well as providing diplomatic support, China has become a critical economic lifeline as Russia copes with mounting Western sanctions.

Xi and Putin both share a vision of a “multipolar” world order, in which countries led by China and Russia can operate by a different set of rules than the ones set by the United States and other liberal democracies.

“I expect both Russia and China will heavily focus their narrative on the failures of the West and in particular the U.S., even if not named directly,” said Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank.

Coming just after Xi’s Europe visit, Putin’s trip “signals that Beijing has not changed how it views its bilateral relationship with Russia despite consistent calls from European leaders to halt China’s support of Russia’s war economy and defense industry,” Nouwens added.

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Putin will be in China through Friday and will visit Beijing and the northern city of Harbin, close to the border with Russia, the Kremlin’s media service said.

It added that the two leaders “will have a substantive exchange of views on the most pressing global and regional affairs.” The negotiations will end with the signing of a joint statement of the heads of state and a number of bilateral documents, the media service said.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that Xi and Putin will “exchange views on bilateral relations.”

The meeting between Xi and Putin will be their first bilateral summit since the Chinese leader’s trip to the Kremlin in March 2023, when the two leaders vowed to deepen Sino-Russian political and economic cooperation. Putin and Xi also met in October when the Russian leader, among others, traveled to Beijing to mark 10 years of the Belt and Road Initiative, Xi’s flagship foreign and economic project.

This week, the two are expected to shore up their “no limits” partnership, declared just weeks before the invasion. China is now one of Russia’s only remaining trading partners and friends on the global stage.

China’s importance to Russia has grown exponentially since the 2022 invasion — as a buyer of Russian energy, as a source of components that can be used in military production, and as a diplomatic partner, providing tacit support for a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

The Kremlin emphasized that the trip to China would be Putin’s first travel abroad since his inauguration last week for a fifth term — signaling the significance of the relationship for Moscow.

Putin and Xi share common cause in their objective of reshaping global power and ending the dominance of the United States in world affairs. While China has released a vague peace plan and called for an end to the war in Ukraine, it has not expressed strong criticism of Russia’s unprovoked invasion and seizure of territory — both clear breaches of the U.N. charter.

As Russia launches new offensive operations in Ukraine, it is looking to stabilize the country’s relations with China, including trade and energy, said Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“For Putin, facing pressure from the United States and Western countries, he must ensure this strategic partnership with China,” Zhao said, adding that the partnership is equally crucial for China.

Alexander Gabuev, a Russia and China analyst with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that Moscow now weighs all of its foreign ties based on the war and on the benefit of any given relationship in its increasingly hostile posture toward the West.

“War has become the organizing principle of Putin’s foreign policy,” Gabuev wrote in comments on X. “He now assesses every relationship through a lens of three considerations: whether this relationship can help on the battlefield in Ukraine; whether it can help to sustain Russian economy and circumvent sanctions, whether it can help Moscow push back against the West and punish the United States and its allies for supporting Kyiv.” China, he noted, ticked all three boxes for Russia.

China’s trade with Russia hit a record $240 billion in 2023 — up 63 percent from 2021, before the invasion, and reaching a goal they planned to meet by 2024. During that time, exports of Chinese electronics needed to produce precision-guided weapons systems saw a significant spike, Chinese customs data shows.

But trade flows have increased in both directions. Russia last year became China’s biggest oil supplier as Beijing took advantage of its discounted prices. Western sanctions mean Russia has relatively few big customers left.

With Russia’s isolation and loss of Europe as its main market for selling gas and oil, Russia has turned to China and India as its primary customers. Nevertheless, Gazprom, the Russian state gas giant, reported its first loss in decades in recent weeks, increasing Moscow’s eagerness to sign a long-delayed gas deal with China called the Power of Siberia 2.

The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, once built, will export gas from the Yamal Peninsula fields in western Siberia, across eastern Mongolia to northern China, across a span of more than 1,600 miles.

It is expected to carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas to China, the world’s biggest energy consumer.

But China has delayed a final agreement, driving a hard bargain on the gas price. If an agreement is reached, construction of the pipeline would be expected to begin this year; however, the gas will not flow until the end of the decade.

Beijing imported 107 million tons of Russian crude oil in 2023, an increase of 24 percent compared with 2022, Zhang Hanhui, the Chinese ambassador to Moscow, told Rossiya Segodnya, a Russian state-controlled media group, this month.

“This [visit] demonstrates that the mutual trust between China and Russia has reached a new pinnacle in history,” said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.

Given the scheduled visit to Harbin in China’s northeastern Heilongjiang province, the two leaders may discuss measures focusing on economic development along the Far East border region, Wang said.

“There is a lot of potential for economic collaboration between China and Russia,” Wang added.

Putin may also use this visit to Asia to make good on a pledge to visit North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who traveled to Russia’s Far East last year for a rare in-person summit with Putin , and called relations with Russia his top priority. Kim pledged full support for Putin and his government amid their war in Ukraine.

Military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has ramped up since the invasion, with Pyongyang reportedly providing Moscow with much-needed ammunition and other weapons to replenish its dwindling supplies for the war in Ukraine.

North Korea, which also faces a host of international sanctions relating to its nuclear and weapons program, wants to show it stands with Russia in the face of U.S.-led economic isolation.

Putin last visited Pyongyang in 2000, when he met Kim Jong Il, the father of the current leader.

Robyn Dixon in London, Pei Lin Wu and Vic Chiang in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report.

A previous version of this article incorrectly said the last bilateral summit between Xi and Putin was in 2003. It was in 2023. The article has been corrected.

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