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Canada at a Glance, 2022 Travel and tourism

• Table 23 Top domestic activities by decrease and by increase, third quarter 2021 compared with third quarter 2019
• Chart 31 Non-resident visitors arriving in Canada by commercial aircraft, June, 2019 to 2022
• Chart 32 Passengers carried by Canadian Level I air carriers, monthly, 2019 to 2022

Travel and tourism… in brief

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, travel and tourism were among the first- and hardest-hit sectors of the Canadian economy. Travel restrictions, border closures and business closures drastically curtailed non-resident arrivals to Canada and altered the travel behaviour of Canadians. As a result, some passenger industries, including airlines and urban transit, were devastated, while others continued to provide essential freight services, including rail and trucking. The food and accommodation industries, along with travel agencies and charter and sight-seeing activities suffered as the flow of international visitors to Canada was reduced to a trickle.

Did you know?

• April 2020 marked the first full month of border restrictions enacted around the world, which brought international travel to and from Canada to a virtual stop. The number of non-domestic arrivals to Canada from overseas countries (countries other than the United States) fell by 96.6%, while those from the United States were down 96.8%.
• Over two years later, in June 2022, the number of international arrivals landing at Canadian airports was nearing levels recorded before the pandemic. Estimates of non-resident visitors totalled 846,700, up sharply compared with the 26,200 arrivals observed in June 2021.

• The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was far more damaging to the airline industry than any other global event, including the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, or the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, which were both associated with year-over-year drops of more than 25% in air passengers. In April 2020, Canada’s airlines reported a year-over-year drop of 97.0% in passengers carried.
• Just over two years later, in May 2022, the 5.3 million passengers on scheduled and charter services reported by Canada’s major airlines were the highest monthly total since before the pandemic. The industry has now recovered over three-quarters (77.3%) of its pre-pandemic traffic.
• During the busy summer travel season, from July to September 2021, fewer Canadians attended festivals or fairs, performances such as plays or concerts, or sporting events as spectators. Compared with the same period in 2019, relatively fewer Canadians reported attending such events, with declines of 82.1% for fairs and festivals, 74.5% for performances such as plays and concerts, and 48.2% for sporting events.
• By contrast, over the same period, more Canadians were engaging in outdoor activities. For example, relatively more travellers reported hiking or backpacking (+47.8%), cycling (+42.7%) and golfing (+35.9%) in the summer of 2021 as part of their domestic vacations.

To learn more

Travel and tourism statistics (statcan.gc.ca)

More information

Note of appreciation.

Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not be produced without their continued co-operation and goodwill.

Standards of service to the public

Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, reliable and courteous manner. To this end, the Agency has developed standards of service which its employees observe in serving its clients.

Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada.

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2022

All rights reserved. Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement .

Catalogue no. 12-581-X

Frequency: Annual

Table of contents

Main page A word from the Chief Statistician Population Immigration Racialized groups Indigenous People Accessibility and persons with disabilities LGBTQ2+ people Women Health Education Criminality Digital society Housing Prices and inflation Impacts of COVID-19 Labour Economy International trade Travel and tourism Agriculture Environment For more information

Canada Tourism Statistics

As the world’s second-largest country, Canada captivates millions of international tourists annually with its breathtaking landscapes, vibrant and friendly cities, multicultural society, and historical depth.

How many people visit Canada every year? 

• Before the pandemic, visitor arrivals in Canada showed a steady increase, from 20.9 million in 2017 to 22.1 million in 2019.
• In 2020, arrivals plunged dramatically to 3 million visitors, and just a slight increase occurred in 2021 with 3.1 million visitors. 1
• The visitor numbers in 2022 reflected a partial recovery to 12.8 million and then marked a significant rebound in 2023, with arrivals nearly matching pre-pandemic levels at 27.2 million . 2

How much do visitors spend in Canada every year?

• In 2017, tourists spent $25.1 billion in Canada, a figure that rose to $29.8 billion by 2019.
• With a similar pattern in arrivals, 2020 experienced a sharp decrease in spending in Canada to $13.6 billion .
• However, recovery was evident in the ensuing years, with amounts reaching $14.4 billion in 2021 and $24.2 billion in 2022, indicating evidence of a strong revival of tourism in Canada. 1

Where do visitors to Canada come from?

• In 2022, the majority of Canada’s international tourists were from the United States ( 9.1 million ). European countries like the United Kingdom ( 588,000 ), France ( 463,000 ), and Germany ( 249,000 ), alongside China ( 64,000 ), were also significant contributors. 3

How many people visited Canada in 2022?

• Throughout 2022, over 12.8 million tourists visited Canada. This was a 319% increase from 3.1 million in 2021. But still 42% less when compared to pre-pandemic levels (2019’s 22.1 million visitors).

How much did tourists spend in Canada in 2022?

• Visitors spent $24.2 billion in Canada in 2022. This was a 68% increase over the $14.4 billion spent in 2021 but still approximately 19% down from 2019’s pre-pandemic level.

Impact of Coronavirus – Canada Tourism Statistics 2020 and 2021

• The year 2020, which welcomed 3 million visitors and a total visitor spend of $13.6 billion , saw a steep reduction in visitors to Canada by about 87% as opposed to 2019, with expenditures likewise falling by approximately 54% .
• In 2021 ( 3.1 million visitors and $14.4 billion visitor spend), even with a small uptick in numbers, the visitor count and expenditures were profoundly lower than in 2019, with arrivals and expenditures continuing to languish at 86% and 52% lower.

Top Attractions in Canada

• Banff National Park & the Rocky Mountains : Known for its breathtaking scenery, turquoise-coloured lakes, and accessible glaciers.
• Vancouver : A city famous for its film industry, mild climate, and picturesque beaches.
• Polar Bears of Churchill : Known for being a prime location for polar bear sightings, especially on the edge of Hudson Bay.
• Baffin Island : The largest island in Canada, offering raw Arctic beauty, is a great place for wildlife viewing.
• Toronto’s CN Tower : An iconic part of the Toronto skyline with panoramic city views and a glass floor for the brave.

Canada Statistics Resources

• Toronto Statistics

Travel Statistics Resources

• Dubai Statistics
• France Statistics
• Germany Statistics
• Greece Statistics
• Iceland Statistics
• Italy Statistics
• Norway Statistics
• Portugal Statistics
• Singapore Statistics
• Spain Statistics
• Sweden Statistics
• United Kingdom Statistics
• United States Statistics
• UNTWO : Key Tourism Statistics – Global and Regional ↩︎
• DestinationCanada : Traveller Arrivals from International Markets – Tourism Snapshot ↩︎
• OECD : Tourism Trends and Policies 2022 – Canada ↩︎

Tourism Statistics in Canada

• Updated: March 13, 2024
• Canadian Statistics

Many industries were hit hard by the global COVID pandemic, but the hardest hit industry was the tourism industry. The ban on travel directly affected airlines, cruise lines, accommodation services, tourist attractions, and food services.

It also had an indirect impact on other industries such as retail when visiting shoppers didn’t bring in extra revenue. Some areas, such as the South Shore area in Nova Scotia, were hit harder than others because many local businesses rely on the revenue brought in by tourists.

In this article, we have collected data on how the pandemic affected the tourist industry. We have also included statistics from the first quarter of 2022 to see what has been happening with the number of tourists in Canada since travel bans were lifted.

Tourism Statistics for Canadians

Canada recorded 32 million tourists in 2019 with Toronto and Vancouver the two most popular destinations among international tourists.

• The number of jobs in tourism-dependent industries fell from 2.1 million in 2019 to 1.6 million by the end of 2020.
• Post-pandemic, the tourist industry has struggled to find staff and at the end of the first quarter of 2022, there were 170,000 unfilled jobs in tourism.
• The revenues from the aviation industry fell by 89.9% from April to December 2020.

The tourism spending in the first quarter of 2022 was 34.2% below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

• The GDP from tourism increased by 11.9% in the final quarter of 2021.
• Spending by Canadians was 85.8% of the total tourism spending in the first quarter of 2022.

There were 315,400 overseas tourists in Canada in May 2022.

• There were almost ten times more trips to Canada made by US residents in May 2022 compared to the year before and almost twelve times the number of overseas visitors.
• There were seven times as many trips to the United States by Canadian residents in May 2022 compared to the previous May.
• 593,200 Canadians flew to the United States in May 2022, which represents 73.6% of the trips by air recorded in May 2019. Overseas flights returned to 67.2% of the pre-pandemic levels in May 2019.
• 44% of Canadians feel confident welcoming tourists from overseas to their area, while 70% are happy to welcome tourists from other parts of Canada.

84% of Canadians believe tourism is important to the Canadian economy.

Before the Pandemic

In 2019, before COVID forced countries around the world to close their borders, Canada recorded a total of 32 million tourists, the ninth-highest number in the world. However, when looking at the number of tourists in relation to the population, Canada is 49th in the world with 0.85 tourists per resident. It ranked number one in North America.

Toronto and Vancouver were the most popular destinations in Canada among international travellers. In 2019, Toronto ranked 53rd and Vancouver 68th among the world’s most popular cities with 4.74 million and 3.4 million tourists respectively.

In 2019, there were 2.1 million jobs in the tourism-dependent industries and there were 232,000 tourism establishments.

During the Pandemic

Initially, in the first quarter of 2020, only 187,000 jobs were lost in the industry, but as the pandemic forced the borders to stay closed for much longer than initially thought, the second quarter of 2020 saw 581,000 jobs lost. By the end of 2020, there were 1.6 million jobs in the tourism-dependent industries.

The number of active tourism businesses fell by 9.9% in December 2020 compared to January 2020. This was over three times the overall contraction of the Canadian economy, which was 3.1% during the same period.

The aviation industry was one of the hardest hit, with the revenues from April to December 2020 declined by 89.9%. In the same period, accommodation revenues from hotel stays fell by 71.2%. Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver recorded the lowest occupancies in Canada and saw the biggest revenue drop at 90.8% representing a loss of $2.3 billion across the three cities.

Post Pandemic

In the first quarter of 2022, tourism’s share of the gross domestic product in Canada was 1.3% of the total. The gross domestic product from tourism was up by 0.9% and it was the fourth consecutive quarterly increase. Tourism spending increased by 50.7% in the last four quarters, but in the first quarter of 2022, it was still 34.2% below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

The growth in the first quarter was largely due to an increase in tourism spending by Canadians during domestic trips. This was up 2.9% compared to the final quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, tourism spending by international tourists was down by 6.9% compared to the final quarter of 2021. However, there had been a large increase in the number of overnight visitors from the United States and overseas in the final quarter of 2021 especially during the Christmas holidays.

The tourism sector has been steadily adding back over half a million jobs and the number of jobs in the tourist industry went up by a further 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022. However, the industry has struggled to fill these jobs and there were still 170,000 jobs unfilled by the end of the quarter.

Closer look at the tourism spending increases

GDP: The GDP from tourism increased by 11.9% in the final quarter of 2021. It was followed by a more modest increase of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2022. The biggest contribution to the tourism GDP came from the transportation services at 2.9%.

Employment: The number of jobs attributed to tourism has been steadily rising since travel restrictions were relaxed. The number of jobs rose by 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and by a further 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022. Travel services were the largest contributor with a 10.2% increase followed by transportation services (2.6%).

Domestic Tourism Spending: The amount Canadians spend on travel increased by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2022. The main contributors towards the increase were passenger air transport, and pre-trip expenses such as camping equipment, recreational vehicles and crafts and activities equipment. Spending by Canadians was 85.8% of the total tourism spending in the first quarter of 2022.

International Tourism Spending: Spending by international tourists was up by 116.4% in the last quarter of 2021. However, it well by 6.9% in the first quarter of 2022. The biggest contributor to the decline in the first quarter of 2022 was passenger air transport at 11.4% followed by accommodation services at 4.8%.

Tourism Statistics for May 2022

In May 2022, the number of international tourists in Canada continued to rise but was still not at the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. There were almost twelve times as many trips to Canada from overseas countries in May 2022 compared to May 2021. It was still less than half of the trips in May 2019. There were 315,400 overseas tourists in Canada in May 2022.

There were almost ten times more trips to Canada made by residents of the United States in May 2022 compared to the year before. The number of trips represented more than half (52.1%) of the trips taken in May 2019.

The number of visits from US residents in May 2022 was over 1.1 million compared to May 2021 when there were 113,500 trips made by US residents. In May 2019, there were 2.1 million trips to Canada from the United States.

Out of the American arrivals recorded in May 2022, 692,000 were by automobile and 43.7% of the trips were day trips. In May 2021, there were 105,000 trips by automobiles and 1.4 million in May 2019.

Visitor numbers from major markets in Europe and Asia continued to grow. In May 2021, there were 7,100 European visitors to Canada compared to 164,000 in May 2022. Trips to Canada from Asia went up from 8,500 to 72,700 during the same period.

The table below shows the numbers of overnight trips before the pandemic in May 2019 and post-pandemic in May 2021 and May 2022 and the year-on-year differences. We can see from the table that the numbers travelling from France and Mexico have recovered the best while travel from China, Japan and South Korea has been the slowest to recover.

Travelling abroad by Canadians

At the same time as travel to Canada increased again, Canadians started to travel more to the United States and overseas. In May 2022, there were 2.2 million trips to the United States by Canadian residents. In May 2021 there were 311,800 trips to the United States by Canadian residents, so the number of trips a year later was around seven times higher.

The majority of the trips, 1.6 million were by automobile and 58.5% of all trips were one-day trips. The number of Canadians travelling to the United States by air in May 2022 edged closer to the pre-pandemic levels. The 593,200 flights to the United States in May 2022 represented 73.6% of the trips recorded in May 2019. In contrast, only 28,200 Canadians were flying to the United States in May 2021.

The number of Canadians who resumed overseas travel has risen sharply from May 2021 until May 2022. In the previous May, there were only 51,400 overseas trips made by Canadians compared to 652,400 this May. The flights taken in May 2022 represent 67.2% of the flights taken in May 2019 and it was the highest monthly recovery so far.

Canadian views on travel and tourism

Since the return to a more normal life, Canadians are readier to welcome both Canadian and international visitors. 70% of Canadians welcome visitors from other parts of Canada, 48% are happy to welcome visitors from the United States and 44% felt happy to receive tourists from overseas.

In a survey on the importance of tourism to the Canadian economy, 84% of Canadians believe it is important. 82% said they believe Canadians travelling domestically is important for the economy, while 79% of the people responding to the survey said overseas tourists are important to the economy.

The travel industry is expected to reach its pre-pandemic levels by 2024 or by 2025 at the latest. While more people’s confidence in the safety of travel is returning to pre-pandemic levels, the growth can be slowed down by geopolitical events such as the war in Ukraine.

Conclusions

The global pandemic hit the tourist industry the hardest, and it has been slower to recover from the pandemic than other industries. However, as the confidence to travel continues to grow, the numbers have been increasing and are slowly getting closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Foreign tourism from France and Mexico has been quickest to recover, though still lacking behind pre-pandemic levels. The number of arrivals from Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea has been slow to pick up again.

Most Canadians see the tourist industry as important for the Canadian economy and the number of Canadians who feel happy to welcome tourists into their towns and cities is steadily increasing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the most popular tourist destinations in canada, is the tourist industry in canada struggling to find new staff.

Post-pandemic, the tourist industry has struggled to find staff and at the end of the first quarter of 2022 there were 170,000 unfilled jobs in tourism.

Do Canadians feel tourism is an important part of the economy?

How many overseas tourists are in canada, is the tourism industry growing in canada after the start of the pandemic.

Statistics Canada

The World Bank

Destination Canada

Government of Canada

As Canadians, we grew tired of the tariff battles with the US and unfair practices of other partners. In July 2018, we decided to do something about it, starting to compile a list of products and services available in Canada so you can rest easy knowing your dollars are having their maximum impact in the Canadian economy.

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17+ Canada Tourism Statistics to Look Forward To

Table of Contents

Pre-COVID Canada Tourism Statistics

Canada Tourism Statistics during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Top Tourist Destinations in Canada

Final Thoughts

Anyone curious to explore the Great White North should delve deep into Canada tourism statistics . And while that’s precisely what we’re going to focus on, let’s start with a little anecdote.

Check this out:

When I asked a European friend of mine what made her curious to visit Canada in the first place, she gave me a surprising three-word answer:

Pop culture references.

More to the point:

The sprawling Canadian Rockies in the BAFTA-winning film Brokeback Mountain . With a contrary appeal, there’s also Scott Pilgrim vs. the World – a shoutout to the cultural scene of Toronto.

But above all, it was the 2005 sitcom How I Met Your Mother , where the main characters frequently made fun of Robin, a Canadian. Her accent was the butt of ridicule.

But the show worked weird reverse psychology for my friend! It made her want to visit Canada all the more, to find out what the fuss is all about.

But what do tourism in Canada statistics have to say?

Let’s find out.

Engaging Tourism Statistics (Editor’s Choice)

• As of 2019 , the Canadian tourism industry generated an eye-watering $104.9 billion in tourist spending.
• 22.1 million people visited Canada in 2019.
• The tourism economy helps sustain 150,000 jobs in Canada.
• 1 in every 10 Canadian jobs is tied to tourism.
• Canada’s tourism industry is predominantly youth-led, with 30.7% of employees aged between 15 and 24 .
• Tourism businesses in Ontario witnessed a 13.7% fall between January and October 2020 .
• International visitor tourism spending dropped by 82.5% in 2020 , with the majority of the spending happening before the borders closed in mid-March .
• Government funding for the tourism industry was fixed at $95.5 million in 2017 .

1. The tourism industry in Canada has a decidedly young workforce, with 30.7% of its employees aged between 15 and 24 years.

(Source: Destination Canada)

Additionally, 20.6% of employees are between 25 and 34 years of age. Tourism also employs a higher proportion of immigrants – they make up 35.3% of the industry yet only 23.8% of the total labour force.

2. Canada tourism statistics for 2019 reveal the industry contributed an estimated $43.5 billion to GDP that year.

Destination Canada (formerly known as the Canadian Tourism Commission) celebrated 2019 as the third consecutive year with a record-breaking number of visitors to Canada – 22.1 million . Moreover, Canada’s air access was revamped in 2019 , accounting for 2.2% additional seats in international aircraft.

3. According to Toronto tourism statistics, the city attracted a whopping 28.1 million domestic and international visitors in 2019.

(Source: Cision Canada)

This represented a slight growth from the 2018 number of 27.5 million . City Hall, the Distillery Park, the Toronto International Film Festival, and the imposing CN tower are easily some of the most visited places in Canada.

Really, what’s not to like? We’ll get back to that later.

4. According to statistics on Canada tourism, the country recorded $104.9 billion worth of tourist spending in 2019.

(Sources: Ottawa tourism, CityNews)

Ottawa contributed to the revenue pool by raising $762 million from international visits. This was a substantial hike over the 2018 Ottawa tourism statistics when the capital hosted 11 million visits. However, the vast majority of these visits were domestic – 90% of them, to be precise.

5. Tourism accounts for 2.1% of the Canadian economy.

(Sources: OECD iLibrary, 150 Stat Can)

Let’s break down the 2019 Canada tourism revenue: Canadians themselves spent 78.4% out of the total tourism revenue in Q2 2019 . This sum stood at $24.3 billion in tourism spends. Accommodation, travel services, luggage, and camping equipment were the main drivers of revenue growth (2.9%).

These were stats about domestic tourists. But what about international revenue in tourism? Read on to find out.

6. Canada’s tourism revenue in 2019 from international visits rose by 3%.

(Source: 150 Stat Can)

This composite growth was driven by accommodation (3%) , air transport (2.8%) , and food and beverages (2.4%) . Finally, non-tourism products contributed 1.4% .

7. In 2017, Canada’s Ministry of Tourism dedicated $5 million to promote the exploration of national parks and indigenous experiences.

(Source: OECD iLibrary)

That’s quite a bit! And the good thing is that Canada is setting an example for governments all over the world.

Simple logic, really:

Only when a government has faith in the country’s undiscovered flora will it be able to pitch it to international markets. And the Canadian government is doing just that.

8. The Canadian Experiences Fund received a lump-sum budget of $58.5 million for 2019 and 2020.

The Canadian Experiences Fund supports investments in tourism-related infrastructures, such as accommodation or local attractions. It also promotes the development of tourism products and experiences.

9. In March 2021, arrivals from abroad were down by a massive 83.7% from March 2020, Canadian travel statistics confirm.

The tourist sector was the hardest hit due to the travel bans that COVID-19 brought on. Coupled with thousands of company closures, a large chunk of the Canadian population lost their jobs.

10. May 2020 witnessed an unemployment rate of 29.7% in the sector, Canada COVID stats reveal.

In comparison, nationwide job losses accounted for 13.8% . The tourism industry’s unprecedented trend remained at an all-time high even by the end of the year, at 14.6% . This number was significantly higher than the year-end unemployment rate of 8% in all other sectors.

11. A survey of Canada tourism statistics by province reveals that Ontario had the most international tourist trips in 2020 – over 1.3 million.

(Source: Statista)

British Columbia was second, with 841,000 tourists. Quebec ranked third among provinces, with 523,000 , followed by Alberta and Manitoba. These figures marked a massive drop from 2019 and resulted in subsequent losses.

12. Ontario tourism statistics reveal a loss of $13.7 billion in travel spending in 2020. out of the cumulative countrywide loss of $36.4 billion.

As a whole, the total figure for the country was $36.4 billion , and Ontario suffered the most by far. Other significant provincial losses in the sector include Quebec with $7.9 billion , British Columbia with $6.1 billion, and Manitoba and Saskatchewan with $1 billion each.

13. Canada inbound tourism statistics recorded 51,229 visitors in March 2021.

(Source: CEIC)

It should come as no surprise that this figure is still a long way off the July 2019 peak of 3,388,299 visitors. However, it wasn’t the lowest by far. In fact, April 2020 marked the all-time trough of incoming travellers – 23,621 .

14. Canadian outbound travel statistics listed 272,000 overseas trips by Canadians in March 2021.

(Source: 150 Stat Can, S150tat Can)

This is significantly lower than the figure for March 2020 , which counted 2.8 million tourists. And in 2019 , there were as many as 4.8 million .

But there’s light at the end of the tunnel:

15. 80% of Canadians are keen on travelling overseas as soon as restrictions are lifted.

Additionally, 84% of Canadians believe in the benefits of international and domestic travel. Hopefully, this will help support a projected 150,000 jobs.

16. The pandemic caused a drop of 32% drop in visits to national parks and historic sites.

(Source: National Parks Traveler)

However, this drop was primarily due to the loss of international visitors. In a fair change of tourism trends, Canadians flocked to near-at-hand vacation spots. Rouge National Urban Park, for instance, received more visitors than ever before. The oft-ignored Quebec Island also became a tourist favourite in 2020 .

When it comes to where to travel in Canada, the top five national parks that recorded an upsurge of visitors in 2020 were:

• Banff National Park, Alberta
• Jasper National Park, Alberta
• Saguenay-St. Lawrence Marine Park, Quebec
• Mount Revelstoke National Park, British Columbia
• Glacier National Park, British Columbia.

17. Spots within 100 kilometers of an urban center received 4% more visits in the summer of 2020.

Additionally, some locations recorded an increase in visitations throughout the entire season. In fact, tourists increasingly enjoyed urban hikes and the exploration of urban parks.

But why this change in Canadian travel trends?

Parks Canada had this to say:

“As society becomes increasingly urbanized, urban parks are emerging as essential places for conservation, exploration, recreation, learning, and wellbeing.”

No exploration of Canada tourism statistics is truly complete without a special section on the most popular tourist locations in Canada. The second-largest country in the world, Canada has tourist attractions spanning a variety of tastes. Be it the celebrated Niagara Falls or the metropolitan CN tower, Canada has something for every tourist.

Many people think of it as the Canadian equivalent of New York City. Toronto is a multicultural hub of bustling tourists, and with good reason! Tourism statistics report that in 2019 , Toronto welcomed a whopping 28 million visitors who spent $6.7 billion .

But what really attracts droves of tourists to Toronto every year?

Let’s find out:

Apart from the city’s iconic CN Tower, popular destinations include Toronto Island, Casa Loma, and the Toronto zoo. For history buffs and art enthusiasts, there are famous museums like the art gallery of Ontario and the Royal Ontario Museum. Nathan Phillips Square and the Hockey Hall of Fame are also on this list.

What’s more:

Every year, millions of cinephiles attend the world-famous Toronto International Film Festival. And, of course, Tim Hortons coffee and Timbits are for everyone.

Montreal welcomed 4 million international visitors in the summer of 2019 alone, tourism statistics reveal. Most of them flocked to Vieux-Montréal, the picturesque old town where you can come across buildings dating back to the 17th century.

Without a doubt, the most famous tourist attraction is the spectacular Notre Dame Basilica. Walking tours of the cathedral allow tourists to explore its vast insides, the twin towers, and the intricate woodcarvings.

Place Jacques-Cartier also has an old-world charm. A famous art and craft market and proximity to other historic sites like City Hall, the Old Palace of Justice, and Chateau Ramezay Museum, make it a popular choice for visitors.

But you can’t really go about just admiring the city’s beauty on an empty stomach, can you?

Let’s face it:

No visit to Montreal is complete without a poutine – the quintessential Canadian fast food. And let’s not forget the Montreal bagel. Did you know that it gets its distinctive flavour by being boiled in honey water?

Moving on to:

Thinking of tourist destinations in Canada that offer a confluence between nature and city life? Then Vancouver should be your go-to destination! And you’re not alone, as 10.3 million people visited Vancouver stood in 2017 .

Within an hour’s drive lie three mountains – Cypress Mountain, Mount Seymour, and Grouse Mountain. They’re a favorite haunt for tourists who love to go snowboarding or skiing. The 2010 Winter Olympics were held at Whistler, and Cypress Mountain was part of it.

The thing is:

Vancouver is among the most popular tourist locations in the Great White North because it’s got the best of both worlds – a vibrant urban culture and easy access to the great outdoors.

And there you have it – all the latest Canada tourism statistics . While the industry has been in the doldrums during the COVID-19 pandemic, the experts predict it will bounce back before too long.

An overwhelming majority of Canadians intend to resume travelling both domestically and overseas once the pandemic is over. And that’s terrific news for Canada’s tourism industry.

In 2019, Canada hosted a record 22.1 million international visitors.

Toronto welcomed a record 28.1 million domestic and international tourists in 2019.

Tourists from the United States rank among the top visitors to Canada, with 22,057,860 visitors in 2015. This number is followed by visitors from the UK, France, and China.

Canada tourism statistics reveal that the tourism industry made up 6.5% of total GDP in 2019.

• Destination Canada
• Cision Canada
• Ottawa Tourism
• OECD iLibrary
• 150 Stat Can
• National Parks Traveler

ABOUT AUTHOR

by Urnesha Bhattacherjee

Urnesha has worked in content writing, editorship, and translation for the last 6 years. Her dream is to be a lifelong learner and venture out of my comfort zone as she does so. She's passionate about access to quality education, animal rights, and sustainability, among other things. Currently pursuing a master's degree, I have a background in English literature. My goal is to harness my love of the language to try something new every step of the way.

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Tourism research statistics

Learn about the provincial, national and international travel statistics that impact Ontario’s tourism industry.

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The ministry’s tourism research unit gathers and analyzes provincial, national, and international travel statistics for government and public use.

For any questions, or if you need this information in another format, please contact [email protected] . Within five business days, we will:

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Current performance

This data shows how busy the tourism industry is in Ontario. The percentage change columns show the difference over the same time period from the previous year.

International border crossings footnote 1 [1]

Hotel statistics, ontario short-term rental statistics footnote 3 [3], exchange rates footnote 4 [4], other statistics, tourism quick facts.

Learn how the Ontario tourism industry compares to the world.

World tourism overview footnote 7 [7]

• As a percent of world GDP : 6.7%
• As a percent of world GDP : 10.4%
• As a percent of world employment: 10.1%
• As a percent of world exports: 6.6%
• As a percent of total personal spending: 8.7%

Ontario’s tourism overview footnote 7 [7]

• As a percent of provincial GDP : 4.3%
• As a percent of provincial GDP : 4.1%
• As a percent of provincial employment: 5.2%
• As a percent of provincial labour income: 4.5%
• As a percent of provincial revenues: 3.9%
• Municipal tourism tax revenues footnote d [d]  ( CDN $B ) : 1.5
• Federal tourism tax revenues footnote d [d]  ( CDN $B ) : 6.1
• As a percent of Ontario's total international exports: 2.5%
• As a percent of total personal spending: 7.4%

Key sources of Ontario’s tourism income footnote 7 [7]

Share of tourism spending in ontario by key visitor groups footnote 7 [7], canadian and ontario travellers compared to other countries footnote 7 [7], economic impact of tourism.

This provides an overview of the tourism industry’s contribution to the Ontario economy.

Tourism regional economic impact model ( TREIM )

TREIM modules can help you learn more about the economic impact of tourism in Ontario, including:

• visitor spending
• operational expenses
• investment expenditures
• convention centre activity

Historical statistics

For further explanation of terms used in the tables, please see the concepts and definitions section .

All data is available as an Excel ( XLSX ) file.

Inbound visits and spending

• United States visits
• Overseas visits
• United States spending
• Overseas spending

Outbound visits and spending

• Total visits by destination
• Overnight visits by destination
• Total expenditures by destination
• Overnight expenditures by destination

Tourism receipts and economic impact

• Ontario's tourism receipts by origin
• Ontario's tourism receipts by item
• The economic impact of Ontario's tourism receipts
• The economic impact of visitor spending in Ontario

Travel accounts and price indexes

• International tourism account
• Interprovincial travel account
• Travel price index and Consumer price index
• Accommodation
• Hotel occupancy rates, average daily rate and revenue per available room

Tourism-related establishments and employment

• Number of tourism-related businesses
• Tourism-related businesses
• Arts, entertainment and recreation
• Food and beverage
• Transportation
• Travel services
• Ontario's employment by industry

Tourism receipts

Tourism receipts are used to calculate the overall impact of tourism spending on Ontario’s GDP , jobs and taxes.

They include spending from:

• visitors coming to Ontario as a destination
• travellers passing through or leaving the province on their way to other destinations

How we got the numbers

The data for calculating tourism receipts comes from several Statistics Canada surveys (National Travel Survey, Visitor Travel Survey and Travel Arrangement Survey).

Ontario's tourism receipts

This table lists tourism receipts for the last 10 years and the annual percentage changes compared to the previous year.

The 10-year average is 10.1%.

For more information, see Ontario’s Tourism Receipts by Origin .

Concepts and definitions

Border crossings (frontier counts).

Statistics Canada’s frontier counts provide statistics on the total number of non-residents entering Canada or residents returning to Canada through Ontario’s international ports of entry.

The international border crossings to Ontario are not equal to Statistics Canada’s Visitor Travel Survey estimates of the international tourist visits to Ontario. Border crossings measure all international travellers entering Ontario for any purpose and any duration, as opposed to tourist entries only. Similarly, border crossings do not provide information such as visitors to Ontario who enter Canada through other provincial ports.

Border crossings are used only as an indicator of current performance. Tourist visits in Ontario come from two surveys conducted by Statistics Canada: the National Travel Survey and the Visitor Travel Survey.

The impact on jobs, Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) and taxes associated with the spending of travellers in an area. Not all of the impacts are retained within the area of spending since part of these benefits will leak out into other regions in the form of imports.

The economic impact of tourism in Ontario is estimated by the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport’s Tourism Regional Economic Impact Model ( TREIM ). TREIM estimates the economic impact ( e.g. , jobs, GDP , taxes) of visitor and business spending on the provincial and local economies.

The definition of tourism follows that adopted by the World Tourism Organization and the United Nations Statistical Commission:  the activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes.

Domestic trip

A domestic trip is defined as travel to a Canadian destination and originating in Canada.

Domestic trips qualifying as “touristic”

In Canada, for a domestic trip to be part of tourism it has to be an out-of-town trip (an overnight trip or a same day trip of a distance that is 40 km and over). The trip may have been taken for any reason except for:

• routine travel that is a regular part of a job
• commuting to school
• moving (or helping someone move) to a new residence (or school)
• regular household or grocery shopping
• regular medical or dental appointments or check-ups
• regular attendance at religious observances/ services
• attendance at funerals
• trips for various regular chores

International trip

An international trip is taken by an international traveller arriving in Canada whose country of residence is a country other than Canada who is cleared through a Canadian Border Services Agency point of entry on a visit for any reason except: immigrants, former residents, military personnel, diplomats and dependants, and crews ( i.e. , persons engaged in the operation of a transport).

Person visit

Tourist visit taken by a traveller either travelling alone or travelling as part of a group. All persons on a trip may visit more than one area. A visit in an area constitutes a person visit in that area. The total of person visits to Ontario’s tourism regions are greater than the person visits to the province since more than one tourism region may be visited during a provincial visit.

Tourism receipts include the spending of visitors in Ontario as well as the spending of Canadian residents in Ontario for trips that take them outside the province with no corresponding visit in Ontario. Tourism receipts also include the commissions and fees earned by the travel arrangements businesses that are in Ontario.

Tourism front-line businesses or tourism-related industries

The businesses or industries that sell products and services directly to travellers, for example: accommodation, food and beverage, arts, entertainment and recreation, travel services and transportation enterprises. Although these industries or businesses supply the goods and services consumed by travellers, they also supply goods and services consumed by non-travellers. As such, not all of these businesses’ or industries’ revenues and jobs are attributable to tourism.

The Ministry of Tourism Culture and Sport, consistent with Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Tourism Satellite Account , classifies the following industries at NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) 6-digit level as the tourism-related industries. The North American Industry Classification System was developed in 1997 by the three North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) trading partners to classify businesses throughout the three countries according to their activities and appears in Statistics Canada's products. NAICS Canada 2017 consists of 20 sectors, 102 subsectors, 324 industry groups, 718 industries and 928 national industries. The relevant ones for tourism are:

NAICS : Accommodation

• NAICS 721111 - Hotels
• NAICS 721112 - Motor Hotels
• NAICS 721113 - Resorts
• NAICS 721114 - Motels
• NAICS 721120 - Casino Hotels
• NAICS 721191 - Bed and Breakfast
• NAICS 721192 - Housekeeping Cottages and Cabins
• NAICS 721198 - All Other Traveller Accommodation
• NAICS 721211 - RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Campgrounds
• NAICS 721212 - Hunting and Fishing Camps
• NAICS 721213 - Recreational (except hunting and fishing) and Vacation Camps

NAICS : Food & beverage services

• NAICS 722511 - Full-Service Restaurants
• NAICS 722512 - Limited-Service Eating Places
• NAICS 722410 - Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)

NAICS : Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

• NAICS 512130 - Motion Picture and Video Exhibition
• NAICS 711111 - Theatre (except musical) Companies
• NAICS 711112 - Musical Theatre and Opera Companies
• NAICS 711120 - Dance Companies
• NAICS 711130 - Musical Groups and Artists
• NAICS 711190 - Other Performing Arts Companies
• NAICS 711213 - Horse Race Tracks
• NAICS 711214 - Other racing facilities and related activities
• NAICS 711215 - Independent athletes performing before a paying audience
• NAICS 711217 - Sports teams and clubs performing before a paying audience
• NAICS 711311 - Live Theatres and Other Performing Arts Presenters with Facilities
• NAICS 711319 - Sports Stadiums and Other Presenters with Facilities
• NAICS 711321 - Performing Arts Promoters (Presenters) without Facilities
• NAICS 711322 - Festivals without Facilities
• NAICS 711329 - Sports Presenters and Other Presenters without Facilities
• NAICS 711511 - Independent Visual Artists and Artisans
• NAICS 711512 - Independent Actors, Comedians and Performers
• NAICS 711513 - Independent Writers and Authors
• NAICS 712111 - Non-Commercial Art Museums and Galleries
• NAICS 712115 - History and Science Museums
• NAICS 712119 - Museums (except Art Museums and Galleries)
• NAICS 712120 - Historic and Heritage Sites
• NAICS 712130 - Zoos and Botanical Gardens
• NAICS 712190 - Nature Parks and Other Similar Institutions
• NAICS 713110 - Amusement and Theme Parks
• NAICS 713120 - Amusement Arcades
• NAICS 713210 - Casinos (except Casino Hotels)
• NAICS 713291 - Lotteries
• NAICS 713299 - All Other Gambling Industries
• NAICS 713910 - Golf Courses and Country Clubs
• NAICS 713920 - Skiing Facilities
• NAICS 713930 - Marinas
• NAICS 713950 - Bowling Centres
• NAICS 713999 - All Other Amusement and Recreation Industries

NAICS : Transportation

• NAICS 481110 - Scheduled Air Transportation
• NAICS 481214 - Non-Scheduled Chartered Air Transportation
• NAICS 481215 - Non-Scheduled Specialty flying Services
• NAICS 482112 - Short-haul Freight Rail Transportation
• NAICS 482113 - Mainline Freight Rail Transportation
• NAICS 482114 - Passenger Rail Transportation
• NAICS 483115 - Deep Sea, Coastal and Great Lakes Water Transportation (except by ferries)
• NAICS 483116 - Deep Sea, Coastal and Great Lakes Water Transportation by Ferries
• NAICS 483213 - Inland Water Transportation (except by ferries)
• NAICS 483214 - Inland Water Transportation by Ferries
• NAICS 485110 - Urban Transit Systems
• NAICS 485210 - Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation
• NAICS 485310 - Taxi Service
• NAICS 485320 - Limousine Service
• NAICS 485410 - School and Employee Bus Transportation
• NAICS 485510 - Charter Bus Industry
• NAICS 485990 - Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation
• NAICS 487110 - Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Land
• NAICS 487210 - Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water
• NAICS 487990 - Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Other
• NAICS 532111 - Passenger Car Rental
• NAICS 532120 - Truck, Utility Trailer and RV (Recreational Vehicle) Rental and Leasing

NAICS : Travel Services

• NAICS 561510 - Travel Agencies
• NAICS 561520 - Tour Operators
• NAICS 561590 - Other Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services

Travel price index

An indicator that measures the inflation rate of the cost of purchasing travel-related goods and services in Ontario (for example, accommodation, transportation, food/beverage, recreation, etc. ).

The Ontario Travel Price Index is based on the travel-related components of Ontario’s Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) released monthly by Statistics Canada. To derive the Travel Price Index, the prices of these components are weighted and aggregated according to their proportions in the total tourism expenditures in Ontario.

Visitor spending (expenditures)

Visitor spending includes what visitors to Ontario spend while travelling in the province, including spending by Ontario residents on trip expenses at the point of origin (for example, taxi to the airport). As well, the fares purchased from Canadian carriers are included in the international visitor spending in Ontario when the province of entry and/or exit is Ontario.

• footnote [1] Back to paragraph ^ Source: Statistics Canada
• footnote [a] Back to paragraph ^ Percentage change over same period of previous year.
• footnote [b] Back to paragraph ^ Change in percentage points
• footnote [3] Back to paragraph ^ Lighthouse (formerly Transparent)
• footnote [4] Back to paragraph ^ Source: Bank of Canada
• footnote [5] Back to paragraph ^ Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport
• footnote [c] Back to paragraph ^ Includes Accommodations, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, Food & Beverage, Transportation, Travel Services
• footnote [6] Back to paragraph ^ Source: Ministry of Energy
• footnote [7] Back to paragraph ^ Sources: World Travel & Tourism Council; Tourism Economics; Statistics Canada’s National Travel Survey and Visitor Travel Survey; Ontario Ministry of Heritage, Sport, Tourism, and Culture Industries.
• footnote [d] Back to paragraph ^ These tax revenues resulting from the total impact of tourism receipts in Ontario.

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How long can I stay in Canada as a visitor?

Most visitors can stay for up to 6 months in Canada.

If you’re allowed to enter Canada, the border services officer may allow you to stay for less or more than 6 months.

• If so, they’ll put the date you need to leave by in your passport. They might also give you a document.
• If you don’t get a stamp in your passport, you can stay for 6 months from the day you entered Canada or until your passport expires, whichever comes first.
• If you need a stamp, you can ask a border services officer for one. If you arrive at an airport that uses primary inspection kiosks , ask the border services officer after you finish at the kiosk.

If you want to stay longer than your authorized stay, you should apply for an extension at least 30 days before the authorized end of your stay.

New entry requirement now in effect

Visa-exempt foreign nationals need an Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA) to fly to or transit through Canada by air. Exceptions include U.S. citizens and travellers with a valid Canadian visa. Canadian citizens, including dual citizens , and Canadian permanent residents cannot apply for an eTA.

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Canada experiences third consecutive record-breaking year for tourism in 2019

Today, Destination Canada - Canada’s national marketing organization, recognized a third consecutive record-breaking year with 22.1 million travellers to Canada in 2019 according to Statistics Canada.

Tourism plays a significant role in the national economy, generating an estimated $104.9 billion in tourism expenditures in 2019, supporting approximately 1 in 10 jobs in communities across Canada and contributes an estimated $43.5 billion in Gross Domestic Product.

“This record number of arrivals shows once more that tourism is a strong and sustainable sector that benefits businesses and communities, large and small, across Canada,” said the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Economic Development and Official Languages. “By working together, we are inspiring travellers to visit more parts of the country in all four seasons, to experience Canada’s diversity and inclusivity, to taste its culinary delicacies and to discover its Indigenous peoples.”

Destination Canada supports the growth of the visitor economy through data-driven marketing strategies that stimulate international demand and tourism export revenue for Canada in 10 countries: Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, the UK and the US. This diversified set of source markets allows for continued growth, even when some regions experience uncertainty.

“It is thanks to the hard work and passion of the millions of Canadians who contribute to this sector that we are experiencing another record-breaking year for tourism. It also reinforces that our Team Canada approach with our industry partners across the country is working and we are increasing Canada’s international competitiveness,” said Ben Cowan-Dewar , Chairperson of Destination Canada’s Board of Directors. “Looking to 2020, we will continue to share relevant data, market intelligence and industry analysis with our partners to ensure we are promoting relevant, meaningful content to our audiences. This is especially relevant given uncertainty around the impact of the coronavirus or COVID-19 outbreak. We are committed to working with our industry partners to continue inspiring those with glowing hearts to fall in love with Canada.”

In addition to Destination Canada’s marketing efforts, the continued growth in the tourism sector is attributable to a variety of factors such as the Government of Canada maintaining renewed visa requirements for key markets making it easier for more people to travel to Canada. There have also been new flight destinations added and increased service on pre-existing routes to several Canadian airports opening up additional air access.

Key highlights

• 2019 was the best year for Canadian tourism on record, with arrivals reaching 22.1 million, breaking the 22 million mark for the first time ever.
• Overnight arrivals to Canada from countries other than the United States reached an all-time high of 7.15 million (2018: 6.7 million). Overseas tourists typically stay in Canada longer and spend more, helping to achieve Destination Canada’s high-yield strategy.
• The United States saw a strong year in air arrivals with 5.1 million (2018: 4.6 million) and a solid rebound in automobile crossings with 8.5 million (2018: 8.2 million). Overall, the US had another record-breaking year with 14.99 million total arrivals.
• Mexico once again experienced impressive growth with 495,627 total arrivals, with a particularly notable increase of 12.4% in air arrivals. The Mexican market has continued to grow since changes to visa requirements at the end of 2016, which spurred demand for travel to Canada, prompting airlines to increase air service.
• India saw an 9.7% increase in air arrivals helping achieve a new annual record for this market with 333,111 arrivals (2018: 287,416).
• Improvements in international air access to Canada helped stimulate travel with non-stop air services adding 2.2% more seats in 2019. 

View the 2019 infographic here . 

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2021-02-03T12:00:00

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Plan your unforgettable Canadian adventure with ease! Discover how to apply for a tourist visa to Canada and explore its stunning

Everything You Need to Know About Canada's Tourist Visa

Kelia Losa Reinoso is a qualified content writer with a Master of Arts degree in Journalism and Media Studies

Dreaming of experiencing Canada's breathtaking landscapes, vibrant cities, and diverse culture? Embarking on a journey to this captivating country starts with understanding the ins and outs of obtaining a tourist visa.

Whether you're planning a short visit to reconnect with family, explore stunning natural wonders, or discover urban delights, this comprehensive guide will provide you with all the essential information you need to navigate the process seamlessly.

From eligibility criteria and application procedures to travel restrictions and tips for a successful application, we've got you covered. Let us unravel everything you need to know about tourist visas for Canada with your top questions answered below.

Canada's Tourist Visa: Your Questions Answered

You may be wondering how you can visit Canada and what procedure you need to follow. Get ready to uncover all the answers as we dive into the details of tourist visas, from eligibility and application procedures to travel tips and restrictions.

What is Canada’s Tourist Visa?

In essence, it allows you to travel to and around Canada for a limited period, typically up to 6 months. It's important to note that while on a tourist visa, engaging in work or study activities is prohibited, aligning with the visa's intended scope and restrictions. Its primary purpose is to enable tourists to experience Canada's wonders and connect with its way of life.

What is the Difference Between a Tourist Visa and an eTA?

When planning a trip to Canada, it's crucial to understand the distinction between a Tourist Visa and an Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA). These two entry permits serve different purposes and apply to different travelers.

Tourist Visa

A Tourist Visa, also known as a Visitor Visa, is a traditional visa that allows foreign nationals to enter Canada for a temporary stay, typically up to six months. It's a document placed in your passport and is obtained through a Canadian consulate or embassy. Tourist Visas are typically required for citizens of countries that are not visa-exempt or eligible for an eTA.

eTA (Electronic Travel Authorization)

An eTA, on the other hand, is an electronic entry requirement designed for visa-exempt foreign nationals who are traveling to Canada by air. It's a simpler and faster way to gain entry clearance than a full-fledged visa. The eTA is electronically linked to your passport and is valid for up to five years or until your passport expires, whichever comes first. It's crucial to note that the eTA is only applicable if you're flying to Canada; if you're arriving by land or sea, you won't need an eTA.

How do I Apply for a Canada Tourist Visa?

Step 1: Complete Online Application

Visit the official Canadian immigration website and fill out the tourist visa application form accurately.

Step 2: Gather Required Documents

Collect necessary documents such as a valid passport, travel itinerary, proof of funds, travel history, and a letter of invitation (if applicable).

Step 3: Pay the Application Fee

Pay the required visa application fee through the online portal using a valid payment method.

Step 4: Biometrics Appointment

Schedule and attend a biometrics appointment at a local Application Support Center (ASC) if instructed.

Step 5: Submit Application

Submit your completed application form and supporting documents online through the official portal.

Step 6: Wait for Processing

Wait for your application to be processed. This may take several weeks, so be patient.

Step 7: Attend Visa Interview (if required)

If asked, attend an interview at the nearest Canadian consulate or embassy.

Step 8: Receive Visa Decision

You will be notified of the visa decision. If approved, follow the instructions to receive your passport with the visa.

What Documents Do I Need For a Tourist Visa?

How much does the canadian tourist visa cost.

A Canadian tourist visa otherwise known as a visitor visa or even a temporary resident visa costs CAD100 and allows you to stay in Canada for up to 6 months but is valid for ten years or until your passport expires. If it’s your first time applying for a Canadian visa, you must include your biometrics (fingerprints and photos) at an additional cost of CAD85.

Who is Eligible for a Canada eTA?

If you are a citizen of a country that is visa-exempt in Canada, then you are eligible for an eTA and you will need one to in order to get into the country. Those who are not visa-exempt will need to apply for tourist visas. The list of eTA eligible countries are listed in the table below:

How Do I Apply for an eTA?

Step 1: visit the official website.

Go to the official Canadian government website dedicated to eTA applications.

Step 2: Check Eligibility

Ensure you meet the eligibility criteria for an eTA. Most travelers from visa-exempt countries require an eTA to enter Canada by air.

Step 3: Gather Documents

Have your valid passport, a credit card, and your travel details ready.

Step 4: Start Application

Begin the online application by providing personal information, passport details, and travel plans.

Step 5: Answer Questions

Respond to a few questions about your health, criminal history, and travel purposes.

Step 6: Submit Payment

Pay the eTA processing fee using a credit card. The fee is typically lower than a traditional visa.

Step 7: Review and Submit

Carefully review the information you've provided before submitting the application.

Step 8: Wait for Approval

In most cases, you'll receive a decision within minutes. However, it's recommended to apply at least a few days before your departure.

Step 9: Check Your Email

If approved, you'll get an email with your eTA confirmation. It's electronically linked to your passport.

Step 10: Travel to Canada

Board your flight to Canada. When you arrive, the airline staff will verify your eTA before you can board.

Does Canada have any COVID-19 Travel Restrictions?

As of October 1, 2022, the border measures related to COVID-19 have ceased for all individuals arriving or coming back to Canada via air, land, or sea.

Top Tourist Destinations in Canada

Now that you know how to visit Canada, let’s get you excited about traveling around the Great White North. Whether you’re exploring Canada with a group tour or planning your own itinerary, here are some of the must-see sights in Canada.

The Cabot Trail is one of the Seven Wonders of Canada and is located in Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia. With 26 hiking trails that range from easy strolls to challenging climbs - all leading to panoramic views of canyons, highlands, waterfalls, and coastlines, you have plenty of hiking adventures to plan in Cape Breton.

Ski at Whistler Blackcomb

Whistler Blackcomb is the largest ski resort in North America located in Whistler, British Columbia. Plan your ski trip from January to March right in time for fresh snowfall and the best skiing and/or snowboarding experience. The resort further offers sophisticated lounge-style restaurants and bars where you can feast with incredible views of Blackcomb Mountain.

Sightsee in Old Montreal

If hiking and action-packed snow activities do not tickle your fancy, you might enjoy exploring the quaint cobblestone streets and architecture from the 16th century in Montreal - Quebec’s largest-French speaking city. A visit to the city is not complete without a stop at the Notre-Dame Basilica and Habitat 67. And don’t forget to indulge your sweet tooth with a frozen maple syrup lollipop from Sugar Shack.

Take a Cruise to Niagara Falls

Niagara Falls are world-famous waterfalls situated in Ontario, Niagara Falls. It’s one of the top tourist destinations in Canada, and for good reason. The thundering of 3,160 tons of water every second gives any spectator goosebumps. You can choose how you want to experience this natural world wonder with many unique and exciting activities that can be pre-booked on Tripadvisor, like a cruise that takes you as close as possible to the falls.

Inside Banff National Park you’d discover plenty of gems, including Lake Louise. The famous crystal clear turquoise water makes it one of the most Instragrammable lakes in the world. Canoeing is an iconic activity for travelers visiting Canada, and for CAD105, you and three friends can hire a canoe for one hour to paddle across Lake Louise, take in incredible nature, and spot small creatures in the park.

Chill at a Hip Gastown Bar in Van-City

Gastown is Vancouver's oldest neighborhood that seamlessly combines old style with contemporary elements. It’s home to the hottest restaurants and bars, making it a great pick for an incredible night out. You’ll also enjoy shopping at the city's independent fashion boutiques and modern gift stores while exploring the many art galleries that line the cobblestone streets.

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Canadian economy grew 0.2% in February

January growth was helped by rebound after public sector strike ended in quebec.

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The Canadian economy grew a modest 0.2 per cent in February, with early estimates for March indicating little change to the GDP, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday.

The February figures were a tick lower than analysts expected. The economy had a strong January, growing 0.5 per cent ( downwardly revised from 0.6 per cent). That was largely thanks to a rebound in educational services after public sector strikes ended in Quebec.

"The start of 2024 looks eerily similar to 2023, when the economy started the year with a bang, only to stall after [the first quarter]," wrote BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes in a note.

The loss of momentum puts additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates in June, though a move on the central bank's part still largely depends on whether inflation continues to cool, Reitzes wrote.

Canada's inflation rate ticks up to 2.9% in March

StatsCan estimated that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.

Gains in transportation and warehousing

The economic expansion in February came as services-producing industries increased 0.2 per cent, helped by gains in transportation and warehousing.

Transportation and warehousing grew 1.4 per cent, a pace that the data agency said was the largest monthly growth rate since January 2023.

Rail transportation also contributed significantly to that sector's growth in February, eking out a 5.5 per cent gain as it rebounded from a January cold snap. 

• Canadian economy starts the year on a rebound with 0.6 per cent growth in January

Meanwhile, air transportation grew 4.8 per cent as demand for international travel rose, with airlines adding more flights to Asia in the lead-up to the Lunar New Year — and pipeline transportation rose 1.6 per cent, offsetting January's decline.

Goods-producing industries were essentially unchanged as the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector grew and the utilities and manufacturing sectors contracted, according to StatsCan.

The public sector grew at a slower pace in February (0.2 per cent) after a 1.9 per cent increase the previous month.

Overall, the agency recorded growth in 12 out of 20 sectors.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jenna Benchetrit is a senior writer with the business content unit at CBC News. She has also covered entertainment and education stories. A Montrealer based in Toronto, Jenna holds a master's degree in journalism from Toronto Metropolitan University. You can reach her at [email protected].

With files from The Canadian Press

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Canada to introduce new rules around off-campus work hours for international students

From: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada

News release

International students enrich Canada’s social, cultural and economic fabric. That is why, in recent months, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has introduced reforms to the International Students Program, to ensure system integrity while protecting students from fraud and financial vulnerability.

April 29, 2024—Ottawa— International students enrich Canada’s social, cultural and economic fabric. That is why, in recent months, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has introduced reforms to the International Student Program, to ensure system integrity while protecting students from fraud and financial vulnerability.

The Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, announced today that the temporary policy allowing students to work more than 20 hours per week off campus will come to an end on April 30, 2024, and it will not be extended. This fall, we intend to change the number of hours students may work off campus per week to 24 hours.

Students who come to Canada must be here to study. As such, allowing students to work up to 24 hours per week will ensure they focus primarily on their studies, while having the option to work, if necessary.

As we head into the summer session, students who have a scheduled academic break can continue working unlimited hours.

In developing this change, we looked at the needs of students, policies in other countries, as well as research that has shown that academic outcomes suffer the more a student works while studying. It also strikes the appropriate balance so students have the option to work without compromising academic outcomes. More details will be shared in due course.

We also continue to develop the new Recognized Institutions Framework to reward post­secondary institutions that set high standards for selecting, supporting and retaining international students. We will continue to support and protect international students from financial vulnerability and keep protecting the integrity of the International Student Program.

“Working off campus helps international students gain work experience and offset some of their expenses. As international students arrive in Canada, we want them to be prepared for life here and have the support they need to succeed. However, first and foremost, people coming to Canada as students must be here to study, not work. We will continue working to protect the integrity of our student program.” – The Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship

Quick facts

Recent studies conducted in the US and Canada have shown that there is a considerable decline in academic performance for students working more than 28 hours per week, and that working more than 24 hours per week increases the chances that a student will drop out of their program.

Most countries that welcome international students set limits on the number of hours they may work while they study. Australia recently changed its policy to allow a student to work 48 hours every 2 weeks. In the US, students must meet additional criteria before being permitted to work off campus at all.

In December 2023, the Government of Canada raised the cost-of-living threshold that students must meet to be approved for a study permit so they are financially prepared for life in Canada and are not as dependent on working.

International students who begin a college program delivered through a public-private curriculum licensing arrangement on or after May 15, 2024, will not be eligible for a post-graduation work permit when they graduate. Those who already started this type of program prior to May 15, 2024, will still be able to access a post-graduation work permit, provided they meet all other criteria .

The new letter of acceptance (LOA) verification process has been a success. Since its launch on December 1, 2023, through April 1, 2024, IRCC has

•  received almost 162,000 LOAs for verification
• confirmed nearly 142,000 LOAs as valid directly with designated learning institutions (DLIs)
• identified almost 9,000 LOAs that didn’t match any LOA issued by a DLI or that the DLI had already cancelled before the foreign national applied for a study permit

Associated links

• Statement: Minister Miller issues statement on international student allocations for provinces and territories
• Notice: Update on public-private college partnership programs for international students
• Notice: Additional information about International Student Program reforms
• News release: Canada to stabilize growth and decrease number of new study permits issued
• News release: Revised requirements to better protect international students
• News release: Changes to International Student Program aim to protect students
• Website: Work off campus as an international student

Aissa Diop Director of Communications Minister’s Office Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada [email protected]

Media Relations Communications Sector Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada 613-952-1650 [email protected]

Page details

Canadian wildfires trigger air quality alerts across 4 U.S. states

Hazy conditions blanketed parts of four U.S. states Monday, as smoke from wildfires in western Canada triggered air quality alerts and warnings.

Canada has 146 active wildfires burning, including dozens in British Columbia and Alberta that are characterized as “out of control,” according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre .

In the United States, alerts were in effect in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota, as winds carried plumes of smoke over the region.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency issued an air quality alert Sunday in response to a “band of very heavy smoke from wildfires in northeast British Columbia.”

The agency said the northern half of the state has since cleared up, but “smoke will linger over southern Minnesota on Monday as northerly winds become light during the day.”

The air q uality i ndex Monday showed conditions across the four states ranging from “moderate” to “unhealthy” for the general public. The index was established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to measure daily air pollution levels and communicate the associated risks.

Air pollution from wildfires is closely tracked because small particles in smoke that are less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter — about 4% of the diameter of an average human hair — are small enough to reach deep inside the lungs.

Exposure to this type of particulate pollution can cause inflammation and weaken the immune system and may also exacerbate or increase the risk of asthma, lung cancer and other chronic lung diseases. Older people, infants, children and those who are pregnant are most vulnerable when air quality worsens.

The air quality index measures that small particle pollution, called PM2.5, along with four other major pollutants: ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.

Fires have engulfed more than 24,000 acres in western Canada, marking the first series of major wildfires this season.

On Sunday, authorities issued an evacuation order for thousands of residents in Northern Rockies Regional Municipality and Fort Nelson First Nations in British Columbia because of fast moving blazes.

Last summer, smoke from wildfires in Quebec blanketed huge portions of the U.S. , sending air quality levels plummeting in cities from the Midwest to the Eastern Seaboard.

Canada experienced its most devastating wildfire season in recorded history last year, with more than 45 million acres burned, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre .

The country is once again bracing for a season of increased fire risk.

The Canadian government said Friday that drought conditions “are expected to persist in high-risk regions in May,” increasing the “risk and intensity of both natural and human-caused wildfires.”

Studies have shown that climate change is creating warmer conditions that can more easily dry out vegetation, a key ingredient for wildfires to ignite and spread. As such, wildfires are expected to be more frequent and more intense in a warming world .

Denise Chow is a reporter for NBC News Science focused on general science and climate change.

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Number of international tourist trips to Canada 2022, by province of entry

Number of international tourist trips to canada in 2022, by province of entry (in 1,000s).

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Watch CBS News

"Extreme" G5 geomagnetic storm reaches Earth, NOAA says, following "unusual" solar event

By Li Cohen

Updated on: May 11, 2024 / 8:32 PM EDT / CBS News

An "extreme" G5 geomagnetic storm reached Earth on Friday, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center said , after issuing a watch earlier in the day warning of the potential for a severe impact. 

The watch followed days of solar activity that sent several explosions of plasma and magnetic fields toward Earth. 

G5 is the strongest level of geomagnetic storm , on a scale from G1 to G5. 

"Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur," NOAA warns. "Some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage." 

Radio transmissions and satellite navigation may also be disrupted.

The last G5 geomagnetic storm, in October 2003, caused power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.

A geomagnetic storm also means aurora borealis , otherwise known as the northern lights , could be seen as far south as Alabama and in Northern California. 

Earlier, NOAA had issued its first watch for a potential G4-level geomagnetic storm in almost 20 years. "If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4," SpaceWeather.com says. 

In a press release on Thursday, NOAA said the most recent series of solar events started on May 8, when a large cluster of sunspots produced "several moderate to strong solar flares." Solar flares are bursts of radiation known to be the solar system's largest explosive events, according to NASA. The area where the flares are occurring is 16 times the diameter of Earth, the NOAA said, and more solar activity is expected. 

That sunspot is so big you may be able to see it with your own eyes  — with your solar eclipse glasses. The spot is known as AR3664 , and it was responsible for most of the geomagnetic activity Friday, the NOAA reported. According to Space.com, it measures about 124,000 miles across and is one of the "largest and most active sunspots seen this solar cycle." 

The NOAA reported that a strong solar flare was observed peaking from AR3664 at 9:23 p.m. Eastern Time Friday. 

"Flares of this magnitude are not frequent," the prediction center said . 

Still have your solar eclipse glasses? There's currently a sunspot so large you will be able to "spot" it while wearing them 15x wider than the earth! pic.twitter.com/XpQJEd4Qk0 — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) May 9, 2024

There has also been a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are explosions of plasma  and magnetic fields that come out of the sun's corona, the outermost part of the sun's atmosphere. At least five CMEs appear directed toward Earth and could arrive as early as midday on Friday and persist through Sunday, the agency said. 

"This is an unusual event," NOAA said.

In a call with reporters on Friday, Shawn Dahl, service coordinator at the Space Weather Prediction Center, said that some CMEs "are catching up with other ones." He said officials are expecting a "big shock arrival" when they hit Earth. Dahl said at the time that while officials weren't predicting a G5 storm — the strongest of geomagnetic storms — they couldn't discount a "low-end G5 event."

"We're really buckling down here," Brent Gordon, chief of the space weather services branch, also said on the call.

G4 conditions were detected by Friday afternoon, marking a "major disturbance in Earth's magnetic field," NOAA said, adding that "the public should stay properly informed of storm progression."  

In a forecast discussion at 12:30 p.m. on Friday, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center said that solar activity is expected to continue at "high to very high levels" through the weekend, with additional solar flares expected, including X-class flares , the most powerful class of solar flares.

As of Friday afternoon, NOAA said it had observed a moderate solar radiation storm that could expose people in high-flying aircraft to "elevated radiation risk" and cause infrequent issues with satellite operations. 

Radio blackouts have also been detected with an R3 designation, meaning that the blackouts were "strong" on a scale from R1 (minor) to R5 (extreme). At this level, wide blackouts of HF radio communication is expected, as well as loss of radio contact, for about an hour on the sunlit side of Earth, as low-frequency navigation signals decline for roughly an hour. 

"Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth's surface, potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations," NOAA said. "[The Space Weather Prediction Center] has notified the operators of these systems so they can take protective action."

Dahl agreed Friday that the event is "pretty extraordinary" and said that it could impact infrastructure, including high-voltage transmission lines of the power grid. Dahl said that infrastructure operators have been notified to adequately prepare. 

This is the first time a storm watch has been issued for a G4 since January 2005. There is an average of 100 severe geomagnetic storms every solar cycle, but so far, there have only been three observed in the most recent cycle that began in December 2019. The most recent occurred on March 23. 

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Li Cohen is a social media producer and trending content writer for CBS News.

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McKinsey Global Private Markets Review 2024: Private markets in a slower era

At a glance, macroeconomic challenges continued.

McKinsey Global Private Markets Review 2024: Private markets: A slower era

If 2022 was a tale of two halves, with robust fundraising and deal activity in the first six months followed by a slowdown in the second half, then 2023 might be considered a tale of one whole. Macroeconomic headwinds persisted throughout the year, with rising financing costs, and an uncertain growth outlook taking a toll on private markets. Full-year fundraising continued to decline from 2021’s lofty peak, weighed down by the “denominator effect” that persisted in part due to a less active deal market. Managers largely held onto assets to avoid selling in a lower-multiple environment, fueling an activity-dampening cycle in which distribution-starved limited partners (LPs) reined in new commitments.

About the authors

This article is a summary of a larger report, available as a PDF, that is a collaborative effort by Fredrik Dahlqvist , Alastair Green , Paul Maia, Alexandra Nee , David Quigley , Aditya Sanghvi , Connor Mangan, John Spivey, Rahel Schneider, and Brian Vickery , representing views from McKinsey’s Private Equity & Principal Investors Practice.

Performance in most private asset classes remained below historical averages for a second consecutive year. Decade-long tailwinds from low and falling interest rates and consistently expanding multiples seem to be things of the past. As private market managers look to boost performance in this new era of investing, a deeper focus on revenue growth and margin expansion will be needed now more than ever.

Perspectives on a slower era in private markets

Global fundraising contracted.

Fundraising fell 22 percent across private market asset classes globally to just over $1 trillion, as of year-end reported data—the lowest total since 2017. Fundraising in North America, a rare bright spot in 2022, declined in line with global totals, while in Europe, fundraising proved most resilient, falling just 3 percent. In Asia, fundraising fell precipitously and now sits 72 percent below the region’s 2018 peak.

Despite difficult fundraising conditions, headwinds did not affect all strategies or managers equally. Private equity (PE) buyout strategies posted their best fundraising year ever, and larger managers and vehicles also fared well, continuing the prior year’s trend toward greater fundraising concentration.

The numerator effect persisted

Despite a marked recovery in the denominator—the 1,000 largest US retirement funds grew 7 percent in the year ending September 2023, after falling 14 percent the prior year, for example 1 “U.S. retirement plans recover half of 2022 losses amid no-show recession,” Pensions and Investments , February 12, 2024. —many LPs remain overexposed to private markets relative to their target allocations. LPs started 2023 overweight: according to analysis from CEM Benchmarking, average allocations across PE, infrastructure, and real estate were at or above target allocations as of the beginning of the year. And the numerator grew throughout the year, as a lack of exits and rebounding valuations drove net asset values (NAVs) higher. While not all LPs strictly follow asset allocation targets, our analysis in partnership with global private markets firm StepStone Group suggests that an overallocation of just one percentage point can reduce planned commitments by as much as 10 to 12 percent per year for five years or more.

Despite these headwinds, recent surveys indicate that LPs remain broadly committed to private markets. In fact, the majority plan to maintain or increase allocations over the medium to long term.

Investors fled to known names and larger funds

Fundraising concentration reached its highest level in over a decade, as investors continued to shift new commitments in favor of the largest fund managers. The 25 most successful fundraisers collected 41 percent of aggregate commitments to closed-end funds (with the top five managers accounting for nearly half that total). Closed-end fundraising totals may understate the extent of concentration in the industry overall, as the largest managers also tend to be more successful in raising non-institutional capital.

While the largest funds grew even larger—the largest vehicles on record were raised in buyout, real estate, infrastructure, and private debt in 2023—smaller and newer funds struggled. Fewer than 1,700 funds of less than $1 billion were closed during the year, half as many as closed in 2022 and the fewest of any year since 2012. New manager formation also fell to the lowest level since 2012, with just 651 new firms launched in 2023.

Whether recent fundraising concentration and a spate of M&A activity signals the beginning of oft-rumored consolidation in the private markets remains uncertain, as a similar pattern developed in each of the last two fundraising downturns before giving way to renewed entrepreneurialism among general partners (GPs) and commitment diversification among LPs. Compared with how things played out in the last two downturns, perhaps this movie really is different, or perhaps we’re watching a trilogy reusing a familiar plotline.

Dry powder inventory spiked (again)

Private markets assets under management totaled $13.1 trillion as of June 30, 2023, and have grown nearly 20 percent per annum since 2018. Dry powder reserves—the amount of capital committed but not yet deployed—increased to $3.7 trillion, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth. Dry powder inventory—the amount of capital available to GPs expressed as a multiple of annual deployment—increased for the second consecutive year in PE, as new commitments continued to outpace deal activity. Inventory sat at 1.6 years in 2023, up markedly from the 0.9 years recorded at the end of 2021 but still within the historical range. NAV grew as well, largely driven by the reluctance of managers to exit positions and crystallize returns in a depressed multiple environment.

Private equity strategies diverged

Buyout and venture capital, the two largest PE sub-asset classes, charted wildly different courses over the past 18 months. Buyout notched its highest fundraising year ever in 2023, and its performance improved, with funds posting a (still paltry) 5 percent net internal rate of return through September 30. And although buyout deal volumes declined by 19 percent, 2023 was still the third-most-active year on record. In contrast, venture capital (VC) fundraising declined by nearly 60 percent, equaling its lowest total since 2015, and deal volume fell by 36 percent to the lowest level since 2019. VC funds returned –3 percent through September, posting negative returns for seven consecutive quarters. VC was the fastest-growing—as well as the highest-performing—PE strategy by a significant margin from 2010 to 2022, but investors appear to be reevaluating their approach in the current environment.

Private equity entry multiples contracted

PE buyout entry multiples declined by roughly one turn from 11.9 to 11.0 times EBITDA, slightly outpacing the decline in public market multiples (down from 12.1 to 11.3 times EBITDA), through the first nine months of 2023. For nearly a decade leading up to 2022, managers consistently sold assets into a higher-multiple environment than that in which they had bought those assets, providing a substantial performance tailwind for the industry. Nowhere has this been truer than in technology. After experiencing more than eight turns of multiple expansion from 2009 to 2021 (the most of any sector), technology multiples have declined by nearly three turns in the past two years, 50 percent more than in any other sector. Overall, roughly two-thirds of the total return for buyout deals that were entered in 2010 or later and exited in 2021 or before can be attributed to market multiple expansion and leverage. Now, with falling multiples and higher financing costs, revenue growth and margin expansion are taking center stage for GPs.

Real estate receded

Demand uncertainty, slowing rent growth, and elevated financing costs drove cap rates higher and made price discovery challenging, all of which weighed on deal volume, fundraising, and investment performance. Global closed-end fundraising declined 34 percent year over year, and funds returned −4 percent in the first nine months of the year, losing money for the first time since the 2007–08 global financial crisis. Capital shifted away from core and core-plus strategies as investors sought liquidity via redemptions in open-end vehicles, from which net outflows reached their highest level in at least two decades. Opportunistic strategies benefited from this shift, with investors focusing on capital appreciation over income generation in a market where alternative sources of yield have grown more attractive. Rising interest rates widened bid–ask spreads and impaired deal volume across food groups, including in what were formerly hot sectors: multifamily and industrial.

Private debt pays dividends

Debt again proved to be the most resilient private asset class against a turbulent market backdrop. Fundraising declined just 13 percent, largely driven by lower commitments to direct lending strategies, for which a slower PE deal environment has made capital deployment challenging. The asset class also posted the highest returns among all private asset classes through September 30. Many private debt securities are tied to floating rates, which enhance returns in a rising-rate environment. Thus far, managers appear to have successfully navigated the rising incidence of default and distress exhibited across the broader leveraged-lending market. Although direct lending deal volume declined from 2022, private lenders financed an all-time high 59 percent of leveraged buyout transactions last year and are now expanding into additional strategies to drive the next era of growth.

Infrastructure took a detour

After several years of robust growth and strong performance, infrastructure and natural resources fundraising declined by 53 percent to the lowest total since 2013. Supply-side timing is partially to blame: five of the seven largest infrastructure managers closed a flagship vehicle in 2021 or 2022, and none of those five held a final close last year. As in real estate, investors shied away from core and core-plus investments in a higher-yield environment. Yet there are reasons to believe infrastructure’s growth will bounce back. Limited partners (LPs) surveyed by McKinsey remain bullish on their deployment to the asset class, and at least a dozen vehicles targeting more than $10 billion were actively fundraising as of the end of 2023. Multiple recent acquisitions of large infrastructure GPs by global multi-asset-class managers also indicate marketwide conviction in the asset class’s potential.

Private markets still have work to do on diversity

Private markets firms are slowly improving their representation of females (up two percentage points over the prior year) and ethnic and racial minorities (up one percentage point). On some diversity metrics, including entry-level representation of women, private markets now compare favorably with corporate America. Yet broad-based parity remains elusive and too slow in the making. Ethnic, racial, and gender imbalances are particularly stark across more influential investing roles and senior positions. In fact, McKinsey’s research  reveals that at the current pace, it would take several decades for private markets firms to reach gender parity at senior levels. Increasing representation across all levels will require managers to take fresh approaches to hiring, retention, and promotion.

Artificial intelligence generating excitement

The transformative potential of generative AI was perhaps 2023’s hottest topic (beyond Taylor Swift). Private markets players are excited about the potential for the technology to optimize their approach to thesis generation, deal sourcing, investment due diligence, and portfolio performance, among other areas. While the technology is still nascent and few GPs can boast scaled implementations, pilot programs are already in flight across the industry, particularly within portfolio companies. Adoption seems nearly certain to accelerate throughout 2024.

Private markets in a slower era

If private markets investors entered 2023 hoping for a return to the heady days of 2021, they likely left the year disappointed. Many of the headwinds that emerged in the latter half of 2022 persisted throughout the year, pressuring fundraising, dealmaking, and performance. Inflation moderated somewhat over the course of the year but remained stubbornly elevated by recent historical standards. Interest rates started high and rose higher, increasing the cost of financing. A reinvigorated public equity market recovered most of 2022’s losses but did little to resolve the valuation uncertainty private market investors have faced for the past 18 months.

Within private markets, the denominator effect remained in play, despite the public market recovery, as the numerator continued to expand. An activity-dampening cycle emerged: higher cost of capital and lower multiples limited the ability or willingness of general partners (GPs) to exit positions; fewer exits, coupled with continuing capital calls, pushed LP allocations higher, thereby limiting their ability or willingness to make new commitments. These conditions weighed on managers’ ability to fundraise. Based on data reported as of year-end 2023, private markets fundraising fell 22 percent from the prior year to just over $1 trillion, the largest such drop since 2009 (Exhibit 1).

The impact of the fundraising environment was not felt equally among GPs. Continuing a trend that emerged in 2022, and consistent with prior downturns in fundraising, LPs favored larger vehicles and the scaled GPs that typically manage them. Smaller and newer managers struggled, and the number of sub–$1 billion vehicles and new firm launches each declined to its lowest level in more than a decade.

Despite the decline in fundraising, private markets assets under management (AUM) continued to grow, increasing 12 percent to $13.1 trillion as of June 30, 2023. 2023 fundraising was still the sixth-highest annual haul on record, pushing dry powder higher, while the slowdown in deal making limited distributions.

Investment performance across private market asset classes fell short of historical averages. Private equity (PE) got back in the black but generated the lowest annual performance in the past 15 years, excluding 2022. Closed-end real estate produced negative returns for the first time since 2009, as capitalization (cap) rates expanded across sectors and rent growth dissipated in formerly hot sectors, including multifamily and industrial. The performance of infrastructure funds was less than half of its long-term average and even further below the double-digit returns generated in 2021 and 2022. Private debt was the standout performer (if there was one), outperforming all other private asset classes and illustrating the asset class’s countercyclical appeal.

Private equity down but not out

Higher financing costs, lower multiples, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment created a challenging backdrop for private equity managers in 2023. Fundraising declined for the second year in a row, falling 15 percent to $649 billion, as LPs grappled with the denominator effect and a slowdown in distributions. Managers were on the fundraising trail longer to raise this capital: funds that closed in 2023 were open for a record-high average of 20.1 months, notably longer than 18.7 months in 2022 and 14.1 months in 2018. VC and growth equity strategies led the decline, dropping to their lowest level of cumulative capital raised since 2015. Fundraising in Asia fell for the fourth year of the last five, with the greatest decline in China.

Despite the difficult fundraising context, a subset of strategies and managers prevailed. Buyout managers collectively had their best fundraising year on record, raising more than $400 billion. Fundraising in Europe surged by more than 50 percent, resulting in the region’s biggest haul ever. The largest managers raised an outsized share of the total for a second consecutive year, making 2023 the most concentrated fundraising year of the last decade (Exhibit 2).

Despite the drop in aggregate fundraising, PE assets under management increased 8 percent to $8.2 trillion. Only a small part of this growth was performance driven: PE funds produced a net IRR of just 2.5 percent through September 30, 2023. Buyouts and growth equity generated positive returns, while VC lost money. PE performance, dating back to the beginning of 2022, remains negative, highlighting the difficulty of generating attractive investment returns in a higher interest rate and lower multiple environment. As PE managers devise value creation strategies to improve performance, their focus includes ensuring operating efficiency and profitability of their portfolio companies.

Deal activity volume and count fell sharply, by 21 percent and 24 percent, respectively, which continued the slower pace set in the second half of 2022. Sponsors largely opted to hold assets longer rather than lock in underwhelming returns. While higher financing costs and valuation mismatches weighed on overall deal activity, certain types of M&A gained share. Add-on deals, for example, accounted for a record 46 percent of total buyout deal volume last year.

Real estate recedes

For real estate, 2023 was a year of transition, characterized by a litany of new and familiar challenges. Pandemic-driven demand issues continued, while elevated financing costs, expanding cap rates, and valuation uncertainty weighed on commercial real estate deal volumes, fundraising, and investment performance.

Managers faced one of the toughest fundraising environments in many years. Global closed-end fundraising declined 34 percent to $125 billion. While fundraising challenges were widespread, they were not ubiquitous across strategies. Dollars continued to shift to large, multi-asset class platforms, with the top five managers accounting for 37 percent of aggregate closed-end real estate fundraising. In April, the largest real estate fund ever raised closed on a record $30 billion.

Capital shifted away from core and core-plus strategies as investors sought liquidity through redemptions in open-end vehicles and reduced gross contributions to the lowest level since 2009. Opportunistic strategies benefited from this shift, as investors turned their attention toward capital appreciation over income generation in a market where alternative sources of yield have grown more attractive.

In the United States, for instance, open-end funds, as represented by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries Fund Index—Open-End Equity (NFI-OE), recorded $13 billion in net outflows in 2023, reversing the trend of positive net inflows throughout the 2010s. The negative flows mainly reflected $9 billion in core outflows, with core-plus funds accounting for the remaining outflows, which reversed a 20-year run of net inflows.

As a result, the NAV in US open-end funds fell roughly 16 percent year over year. Meanwhile, global assets under management in closed-end funds reached a new peak of $1.7 trillion as of June 2023, growing 14 percent between June 2022 and June 2023.

Real estate underperformed historical averages in 2023, as previously high-performing multifamily and industrial sectors joined office in producing negative returns caused by slowing demand growth and cap rate expansion. Closed-end funds generated a pooled net IRR of −3.5 percent in the first nine months of 2023, losing money for the first time since the global financial crisis. The lone bright spot among major sectors was hospitality, which—thanks to a rush of postpandemic travel—returned 10.3 percent in 2023. 2 Based on NCREIFs NPI index. Hotels represent 1 percent of total properties in the index. As a whole, the average pooled lifetime net IRRs for closed-end real estate funds from 2011–20 vintages remained around historical levels (9.8 percent).

Global deal volume declined 47 percent in 2023 to reach a ten-year low of $650 billion, driven by widening bid–ask spreads amid valuation uncertainty and higher costs of financing (Exhibit 3). 3 CBRE, Real Capital Analytics Deal flow in the office sector remained depressed, partly as a result of continued uncertainty in the demand for space in a hybrid working world.

During a turbulent year for private markets, private debt was a relative bright spot, topping private markets asset classes in terms of fundraising growth, AUM growth, and performance.

Fundraising for private debt declined just 13 percent year over year, nearly ten percentage points less than the private markets overall. Despite the decline in fundraising, AUM surged 27 percent to $1.7 trillion. And private debt posted the highest investment returns of any private asset class through the first three quarters of 2023.

Private debt’s risk/return characteristics are well suited to the current environment. With interest rates at their highest in more than a decade, current yields in the asset class have grown more attractive on both an absolute and relative basis, particularly if higher rates sustain and put downward pressure on equity returns (Exhibit 4). The built-in security derived from debt’s privileged position in the capital structure, moreover, appeals to investors that are wary of market volatility and valuation uncertainty.

Direct lending continued to be the largest strategy in 2023, with fundraising for the mostly-senior-debt strategy accounting for almost half of the asset class’s total haul (despite declining from the previous year). Separately, mezzanine debt fundraising hit a new high, thanks to the closings of three of the largest funds ever raised in the strategy.

Over the longer term, growth in private debt has largely been driven by institutional investors rotating out of traditional fixed income in favor of private alternatives. Despite this growth in commitments, LPs remain underweight in this asset class relative to their targets. In fact, the allocation gap has only grown wider in recent years, a sharp contrast to other private asset classes, for which LPs’ current allocations exceed their targets on average. According to data from CEM Benchmarking, the private debt allocation gap now stands at 1.4 percent, which means that, in aggregate, investors must commit hundreds of billions in net new capital to the asset class just to reach current targets.

Private debt was not completely immune to the macroeconomic conditions last year, however. Fundraising declined for the second consecutive year and now sits 23 percent below 2021’s peak. Furthermore, though private lenders took share in 2023 from other capital sources, overall deal volumes also declined for the second year in a row. The drop was largely driven by a less active PE deal environment: private debt is predominantly used to finance PE-backed companies, though managers are increasingly diversifying their origination capabilities to include a broad new range of companies and asset types.

Infrastructure and natural resources take a detour

For infrastructure and natural resources fundraising, 2023 was an exceptionally challenging year. Aggregate capital raised declined 53 percent year over year to $82 billion, the lowest annual total since 2013. The size of the drop is particularly surprising in light of infrastructure’s recent momentum. The asset class had set fundraising records in four of the previous five years, and infrastructure is often considered an attractive investment in uncertain markets.

While there is little doubt that the broader fundraising headwinds discussed elsewhere in this report affected infrastructure and natural resources fundraising last year, dynamics specific to the asset class were at play as well. One issue was supply-side timing: nine of the ten largest infrastructure GPs did not close a flagship fund in 2023. Second was the migration of investor dollars away from core and core-plus investments, which have historically accounted for the bulk of infrastructure fundraising, in a higher rate environment.

The asset class had some notable bright spots last year. Fundraising for higher-returning opportunistic strategies more than doubled the prior year’s total (Exhibit 5). AUM grew 18 percent, reaching a new high of $1.5 trillion. Infrastructure funds returned a net IRR of 3.4 percent in 2023; this was below historical averages but still the second-best return among private asset classes. And as was the case in other asset classes, investors concentrated commitments in larger funds and managers in 2023, including in the largest infrastructure fund ever raised.

The outlook for the asset class, moreover, remains positive. Funds targeting a record amount of capital were in the market at year-end, providing a robust foundation for fundraising in 2024 and 2025. A recent spate of infrastructure GP acquisitions signal multi-asset managers’ long-term conviction in the asset class, despite short-term headwinds. Global megatrends like decarbonization and digitization, as well as revolutions in energy and mobility, have spurred new infrastructure investment opportunities around the world, particularly for value-oriented investors that are willing to take on more risk.

Private markets make measured progress in DEI

Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) has become an important part of the fundraising, talent, and investing landscape for private market participants. Encouragingly, incremental progress has been made in recent years, including more diverse talent being brought to entry-level positions, investing roles, and investment committees. The scope of DEI metrics provided to institutional investors during fundraising has also increased in recent years: more than half of PE firms now provide data across investing teams, portfolio company boards, and portfolio company management (versus investment team data only). 4 “ The state of diversity in global private markets: 2023 ,” McKinsey, August 22, 2023.

In 2023, McKinsey surveyed 66 global private markets firms that collectively employ more than 60,000 people for the second annual State of diversity in global private markets report. 5 “ The state of diversity in global private markets: 2023 ,” McKinsey, August 22, 2023. The research offers insight into the representation of women and ethnic and racial minorities in private investing as of year-end 2022. In this chapter, we discuss where the numbers stand and how firms can bring a more diverse set of perspectives to the table.

The statistics indicate signs of modest advancement. Overall representation of women in private markets increased two percentage points to 35 percent, and ethnic and racial minorities increased one percentage point to 30 percent (Exhibit 6). Entry-level positions have nearly reached gender parity, with female representation at 48 percent. The share of women holding C-suite roles globally increased 3 percentage points, while the share of people from ethnic and racial minorities in investment committees increased 9 percentage points. There is growing evidence that external hiring is gradually helping close the diversity gap, especially at senior levels. For example, 33 percent of external hires at the managing director level were ethnic or racial minorities, higher than their existing representation level (19 percent).

Yet, the scope of the challenge remains substantial. Women and minorities continue to be underrepresented in senior positions and investing roles. They also experience uneven rates of progress due to lower promotion and higher attrition rates, particularly at smaller firms. Firms are also navigating an increasingly polarized workplace today, with additional scrutiny and a growing number of lawsuits against corporate diversity and inclusion programs, particularly in the US, which threatens to impact the industry’s pace of progress.

Fredrik Dahlqvist is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Stockholm office; Alastair Green  is a senior partner in the Washington, DC, office, where Paul Maia and Alexandra Nee  are partners; David Quigley  is a senior partner in the New York office, where Connor Mangan is an associate partner and Aditya Sanghvi  is a senior partner; Rahel Schneider is an associate partner in the Bay Area office; John Spivey is a partner in the Charlotte office; and Brian Vickery  is a partner in the Boston office.

The authors wish to thank Jonathan Christy, Louis Dufau, Vaibhav Gujral, Graham Healy-Day, Laura Johnson, Ryan Luby, Tripp Norton, Alastair Rami, Henri Torbey, and Alex Wolkomir for their contributions

The authors would also like to thank CEM Benchmarking and the StepStone Group for their partnership in this year's report.

This article was edited by Arshiya Khullar, an editor in the Gurugram office.

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A Plan to Remake the Middle East

While talks for a cease-fire between israel and hamas continue, another set of negotiations is happening behind the scenes..

This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.

From New York Times, I’m Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily.

[MUSIC CONTINUES]

Today, if and when Israel and Hamas reach a deal for a ceasefire fire, the United States will immediately turn to a different set of negotiations over a grand diplomatic bargain that it believes could rebuild Gaza and remake the Middle East. My colleague Michael Crowley has been reporting on that plan and explains why those involved in it believe they have so little time left to get it done.

It’s Wednesday, May 8.

Michael, I want to start with what feels like a pretty dizzying set of developments in this conflict over the past few days. Just walk us through them?

Well, over the weekend, there was an intense round of negotiations in an effort, backed by the United States, to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza war.

The latest ceasefire proposal would reportedly see as many as 33 Israeli hostages released in exchange for potentially hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

US officials were very eager to get this deal.

Pressure for a ceasefire has been building ahead of a threatened Israeli assault on Rafah.

Because Israel has been threatening a military offensive in the Southern Palestinian city of Rafah, where a huge number of people are crowded.

Fleeing the violence to the North. And now they’re packed into Rafah. Exposed and vulnerable, they need to be protected.

And the US says it would be a humanitarian catastrophe on top of the emergency that’s already underway.

Breaking news this hour — very important breaking news. An official Hamas source has told The BBC that it does accept a proposal for a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

And for a few hours on Monday, it looked like there might have been a major breakthrough when Hamas put out a statement saying that it had accepted a negotiating proposal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the ceasefire proposal does not meet his country’s requirements. But Netanyahu says he will send a delegation of mediators to continue those talks. Now, the terms —

But those hopes were dashed pretty quickly when the Israelis took a look at what Hamas was saying and said that it was not a proposal that they had agreed to. It had been modified.

And overnight —

Israeli troops stormed into Rafah. Video showing tanks crashing over a sign at the entrance of the city.

— the Israelis launched a partial invasion of Rafah.

It says Hamas used the area to launch a deadly attack on Israeli troops over the weekend.

And they have now secured a border crossing at the Southern end of Gaza and are conducting targeted strikes. This is not yet the full scale invasion that President Biden has adamantly warned Israel against undertaking, but it is an escalation by Israel.

So while all that drama might suggest that these talks are in big trouble, these talks are very much still alive and ongoing and there is still a possibility of a ceasefire deal.

And the reason that’s so important is not just to stop the fighting in Gaza and relieve the suffering there, but a ceasefire also opens the door to a grand diplomatic bargain, one that involves Israel and its Arab neighbors and the Palestinians, and would have very far-reaching implications.

And what is that grand bargain. Describe what you’re talking about?

Well, it’s incredibly ambitious. It would reshape Israel’s relationship with its Arab neighbors, principally Saudi Arabia. But it’s important to understand that this is a vision that has actually been around since well before October 7. This was a diplomatic project that President Biden had been investing in and negotiating actually in a very real and tangible way long before the Hamas attacks and the Gaza war.

And President Biden was looking to build on something that President Trump had done, which was a series of agreements that the Trump administration struck in which Israel and some of its Arab neighbors agreed to have normal diplomatic relations for the first time.

Right, they’re called the Abraham Accords.

That’s right. And, you know, Biden doesn’t like a lot of things, most things that Trump did. But he actually likes this, because the idea is that they contribute to stability and economic integration in the Middle East, the US likes Israel having friends and likes having a tight-knit alliance against Iran.

President Biden agrees with the Saudis and with the Israelis, that Iran is really the top threat to everybody here. So, how can you build on this? How can you expand it? Well, the next and biggest step would be normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

And the Saudis have made clear that they want to do this and that they’re ready to do this. They weren’t ready to do it in the Trump years. But Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, has made clear he wants to do it now.

So this kind of triangular deal began to take shape before October 7, in which the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia would enter this three way agreement in which everyone would get something that they wanted.

And just walk through what each side gets in this pre-October 7th version of these negotiations?

So for Israel, you get normalized ties with its most important Arab neighbor and really the country that sets the tone for the whole Muslim world, which is Saudi Arabia of course. It makes Israel feel safer and more secure. Again, it helps to build this alliance against Iran, which Israel considers its greatest threat, and it comes with benefits like economic ties and travel and tourism. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been very open, at least before October 7th, that this was his highest diplomatic and foreign policy priority.

For the Saudis, the rationale is similar when it comes to Israel. They think that it will bring stability. They like having a more explicitly close ally against Iran. There are economic and cultural benefits. Saudi Arabia is opening itself up in general, encouraging more tourism.

But I think that what’s most important to the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is what he can get from the United States. And what he has been asking for are a couple of essential things. One is a security agreement whose details have always been a little bit vague, but I think essentially come down to reliable arms supplies from the United States that are not going to be cut off or paused on a whim, as he felt happened when President Biden stopped arms deliveries in 2021 because of how Saudi was conducting its war in Yemen. The Saudis were furious about that.

Saudi Arabia also wants to start a domestic nuclear power program. They are planning for a very long-term future, possibly a post-oil future. And they need help getting a nuclear program off the ground.

And they want that from the US?

And they want that from the US.

Now, those are big asks from the us. But from the perspective of President Biden, there are some really enticing things about this possible agreement. One is that it will hopefully produce more stability in the region. Again, the US likes having a tight-knit alliance against Iran.

The US also wants to have a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia. You know, despite the anger at Mohammed bin Salman over the murder of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, the Biden administration recognizes that given the Saudis control over global oil production and their strategic importance in the Middle East, they need to have a good relationship with them. And the administration has been worried about the influence of China in the region and with the Saudis in particular.

So this is an opportunity for the US to draw the Saudis closer. Whatever our moral qualms might be about bin Salman and the Saudi government, this is an opportunity to bring the Saudis closer, which is something the Biden administration sees as a strategic benefit.

All three of these countries — big, disparate countries that normally don’t see eye-to-eye, this was a win-win-win on a military, economic, and strategic front.

That’s right. But there was one important actor in the region that did not see itself as winning, and that was the Palestinians.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

First, it’s important to understand that the Palestinians have always expected that the Arab countries in the Middle East would insist that Israel recognize a Palestinian state before those countries were willing to essentially make total peace and have normal relations with Israel.

So when the Abraham Accords happened in the Trump administration, the Palestinians felt like they’d been thrown under the bus because the Abraham Accords gave them virtually nothing. But the Palestinians did still hold out hope that Saudi Arabia would be their savior. And for years, Saudi Arabia has said that Israel must give the Palestinians a state if there’s going to be a normal relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Now the Palestinians see the Saudis in discussions with the US and Israel about a normalization agreement, and there appears to be very little on offer for the Palestinians. And they are feeling like they’re going to be left out in the cold here.

Right. And in the minds of the Palestinians, having already been essentially sold out by all their other Arab neighbors, the prospect that Saudi Arabia, of all countries, the most important Muslim Arab country in the region, would sell them out, had to be extremely painful.

It was a nightmare scenario for them. And in the minds of many analysts and US officials, this was a factor, one of many, in Hamas’s decision to stage the October 7th attacks.

Hamas, like other Palestinian leaders, was seeing the prospect that the Middle East was moving on and essentially, in their view, giving up on the Palestinian cause, and that Israel would be able to have friendly, normal relations with Arab countries around the region, and that it could continue with hardline policies toward the Palestinians and a refusal, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said publicly, to accept a Palestinian state.

Right. So Michael, once Hamas carries out the October 7th attacks in an effort to destroy a status quo that it thinks is leaving them less and less relevant, more and more hopeless, including potentially this prospect that Saudi Arabia is going to normalize relations with Israel, what happens to these pre-October 7th negotiations between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel?

Well, I think there was a snap assumption that these talks were dead and buried. That they couldn’t possibly survive a cataclysm like this.

But then something surprising happened. It became clear that all the parties were still determined to pull-off the normalization.

And most surprisingly of all, perhaps, was the continued eagerness of Saudi Arabia, which publicly was professing outrage over the Israeli response to the Hamas attacks, but privately was still very much engaged in these conversations and trying to move them forward.

And in fact, what has happened is that the scope of this effort has grown substantially. October 7th didn’t kill these talks. It actually made them bigger, more complicated, and some people would argue, more important than ever.

We’ll be right back.

Michael, walk us through what exactly happens to these three-way negotiations after October 7th that ends up making them, as you just said, more complicated and more important than ever?

Well, it’s more important than ever because of the incredible need in Gaza. And it’s going to take a deal like this and the approval of Saudi Arabia to unlock the kind of massive reconstruction project required to essentially rebuild Gaza from the rubble. Saudi Arabia and its Arab friends are also going to be instrumental in figuring out how Gaza is governed, and they might even provide troops to help secure it. None of those things are going to happen without a deal like this.

Fascinating.

But this is all much more complicated now because the price for a deal like this has gone up.

And by price, you mean?

What Israel would have to give up. [MUSIC PLAYING]

From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, you have an Arab population that is furious at Israel. It now feels like a really hard time to do a normalization deal with the Israelis. It was never going to be easy, but this is about as bad a time to do it as there has been in a generation at least. And I think that President Biden and the people around him understand that the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians is intolerable and it is going to lead to chaos and violence indefinitely.

So now you have two of the three parties to this agreement, the Saudis and the Americans, basically asking a new price after October 7th, and saying to the Israelis, if we’re going to do this deal, it has to not only do something for the Palestinians, it has to do something really big. You have to commit to the creation of a Palestinian state. Now, I’ll be specific and say that what you hear the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, say is that the agreement has to include an irreversible time-bound path to a Palestinian state.

We don’t know exactly what that looks like, but it’s some kind of a firm commitment, the likes of which the world and certainly the Israelis have not made before.

Something that was very much not present in the pre-October 7th vision of this negotiation. So much so that, as we just talked about, the Palestinians were left feeling completely out in the cold and furious at it.

That’s right. There was no sign that people were thinking that ambitiously about the Palestinians in this deal before October 7th. And the Palestinians certainly felt like they weren’t going to get much out of it. And that has completely changed now.

So, Michael, once this big new dimension after October 7th, which is the insistence by Saudi Arabia and the US that there be a Palestinian state or a path to a Palestinian state, what is the reaction specifically from Israel, which is, of course, the third major party to this entire conversation?

Well, Israel, or at least its political leadership, hates it. You know, this is just an extremely tough sell in Israel. It would have been a tough sell before October 7th. It’s even harder now.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is completely unrepentantly open in saying that there’s not going to be a Palestinian state on his watch. He won’t accept it. He says that it’s a strategic risk to his country. He says that it would, in effect, reward Hamas.

His argument is that terrorism has forced a conversation about statehood onto the table that wasn’t there before October 7th. Sure, it’s always in the background. It’s a perennial issue in global affairs, but it was not something certainly that the US and Israel’s Arab neighbors were actively pushing. Netanyahu also has — you know, he governs with the support of very right-wing members of a political coalition that he has cobbled together. And that coalition is quite likely to fall apart if he does embrace a Palestinian state or a path to a Palestinian state.

Now, he might be able to cobble together some sort of alternative, but it creates a political crisis for him.

And finally, you know, I think in any conversation about Israel, it’s worth bearing in mind something you hear from senior US officials these days, which is that although there is often finger pointing at Netanyahu and a desire to blame Netanyahu as this obstructionist who won’t agree to deals, what they say is Netanyahu is largely reflecting his population and the political establishment of his country, not just the right-wingers in his coalition who are clearly extremist.

But actually the prevailing views of the Israeli public. And the Israeli public and their political leaders across the spectrum right now with few exceptions, are not interested in talking about a Palestinian state when there are still dozens and dozens of Israeli hostages in tunnels beneath Gaza.

So it very much looks like this giant agreement that once seemed doable before October 7th might be more important to everyone involved than ever, given that it’s a plan for rebuilding Gaza and potentially preventing future October 7th’s from happening, but because of this higher price that Israel would have to pay, which is the acceptance of a Palestinian state, it seems from everything you’re saying, that this is more and more out of reach than ever before and hard to imagine happening in the immediate future. So if the people negotiating it are being honest, Michael, are they ready to acknowledge that it doesn’t look like this is going to happen?

Well, not quite yet. As time goes by, they certainly say it’s getting harder and harder, but they’re still trying, and they still think there’s a chance. But both the Saudis and the Biden administration understand that there’s very little time left to do this.

Well, what do you mean there’s very little time left? It would seem like time might benefit this negotiation in that it might give Israel distance from October 7th to think potentially differently about a Palestinian state?

Potentially. But Saudi Arabia wants to get this deal done in the Biden administration because Mohammed bin Salman has concluded this has to be done under a Democratic president.

Because Democrats in Congress are going to be very reluctant to approve a security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

It’s important to understand that if there is a security agreement, that’s something Congress is going to have to approve. And you’re just not going to get enough Democrats in Congress to support a deal with Saudi Arabia, who a lot of Democrats don’t like to begin with, because they see them as human rights abusers.

But if a Democratic president is asking them to do it, they’re much more likely to go along.

Right. So Saudi Arabia fears that if Biden loses and Trump is president, that those same Democrats would balk at this deal in a way that they wouldn’t if it were being negotiated under President Biden?

Exactly. Now, from President Biden’s perspective, politically, think about a president who’s running for re-election, who is presiding right now over chaos in the Middle East, who doesn’t seem to have good answers for the Israeli-Palestinian question, this is an opportunity for President Biden to deliver what could be at least what he would present as a diplomatic masterstroke that does multiple things at once, including creating a new pathway for Israel and the Palestinians to coexist, to break through the logjam, even as he is also improving Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

So Biden and the Crown Prince hope that they can somehow persuade Bibi Netanyahu that in spite of all the reasons that he thinks this is a terrible idea, that this is a bet worth taking on Israel’s and the region’s long-term security and future?

That’s right. Now, no one has explained very clearly exactly how this is going to work, and it’s probably going to require artful diplomacy, possibly even a scenario where the Israelis would agree to something that maybe means one thing to them and means something else to other people. But Biden officials refuse to say that it’s hopeless and they refuse to essentially take Netanyahu’s preliminary no’s for an answer. And they still see some way that they can thread this incredibly narrow needle.

Michael, I’m curious about a constituency that we haven’t been talking about because they’re not at the table in these discussions that we are talking about here. And that would be Hamas. How does Hamas feel about the prospect of such a deal like this ever taking shape. Do they see it as any kind of a victory and vindication for what they did on October 7th?

So it’s hard to know exactly what Hamas’s leadership is thinking. I think they can feel two things. I think they can feel on the one hand, that they have established themselves as the champions of the Palestinian people who struck a blow against Israel and against a diplomatic process that was potentially going to leave the Palestinians out in the cold.

At the same time, Hamas has no interest in the kind of two-state solution that the US is trying to promote. They think Israel should be destroyed. They think the Palestinian state should cover the entire geography of what is now Israel, and they want to lead a state like that. And that’s not something that the US, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else is going to tolerate.

So what Hamas wants is to fight, to be the leader of the Palestinian people, and to destroy Israel. And they’re not interested in any sort of a peace process or statehood process.

It seems very clear from everything you’ve said here that neither Israel nor Hamas is ready to have the conversation about a grand bargain diplomatic program. And I wonder if that inevitably has any bearing on the ceasefire negotiations that are going on right now between the two of them that are supposed to bring this conflict to some sort of an end, even if it’s just temporary?

Because if, as you said, Michael, a ceasefire opens the door to this larger diplomatic solution, and these two players don’t necessarily want that larger diplomatic solution, doesn’t that inevitably impact their enthusiasm for even reaching a ceasefire?

Well, it certainly doesn’t help. You know, this is such a hellish problem. And of course, you first have the question of whether Israel and Hamas can make a deal on these immediate issues, including the hostages, Palestinian prisoners, and what the Israeli military is going to do, how long a ceasefire might last.

But on top of that, you have these much bigger diplomatic questions that are looming over them. And it’s not clear that either side is ready to turn and face those bigger questions.

So while for the Biden administration and for Saudi Arabia, this is a way out of this crisis, these larger diplomatic solutions, it’s not clear that it’s a conversation that the two parties that are actually at war here are prepared to start having.

Well, Michael, thank you very much. We appreciate it.

On Tuesday afternoon, under intense pressure from the US, delegations from Israel and Hamas arrived in Cairo to resume negotiations over a potential ceasefire. But in a statement, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that even with the talks underway, his government would, quote, “continue to wage war against Hamas.”

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The Jewish community, I want you to know I see your fear, your hurt, and your pain. Let me reassure you, as your president, you’re not alone. You belong. You always have and you always will.

Today’s episode was produced by Nina Feldman, Clare Toeniskoetter, and Rikki Novetsky. It was edited by Liz O. Baylen, contains original music by Marion Lozano, Elisheba Ittoop, and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly.

That’s it for The Daily. I’m Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

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Hosted by Michael Barbaro

Featuring Michael Crowley

Produced by Nina Feldman ,  Clare Toeniskoetter and Rikki Novetsky

Edited by Liz O. Baylen

Original music by Marion Lozano ,  Elisheba Ittoop and Dan Powell

Engineered by Alyssa Moxley

Listen and follow The Daily Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube

If and when Israel and Hamas reach a deal for a cease-fire, the United States will immediately turn to a different set of negotiations over a grand diplomatic bargain that it believes could rebuild Gaza and remake the Middle East.

Michael Crowley, who covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times, explains why those involved in this plan believe they have so little time left to get it done.

On today’s episode

Michael Crowley , a reporter covering the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The New York Times.

Background reading :

Talks on a cease-fire in the Gaza war are once again at an uncertain stage .

Here’s how the push for a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia looked before Oct. 7 .

From early in the war, President Biden has said that a lasting resolution requires a “real” Palestinian state .

Here’s what Israeli officials are discussing about postwar Gaza.

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We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.

The Daily is made by Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Sydney Harper, Mike Benoist, Liz O. Baylen, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Rachelle Bonja, Diana Nguyen, Marion Lozano, Corey Schreppel, Rob Szypko, Elisheba Ittoop, Mooj Zadie, Patricia Willens, Rowan Niemisto, Jody Becker, Rikki Novetsky, John Ketchum, Nina Feldman, Will Reid, Carlos Prieto, Ben Calhoun, Susan Lee, Lexie Diao, Mary Wilson, Alex Stern, Dan Farrell, Sophia Lanman, Shannon Lin, Diane Wong, Devon Taylor, Alyssa Moxley, Summer Thomad, Olivia Natt, Daniel Ramirez and Brendan Klinkenberg.

Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Paula Szuchman, Lisa Tobin, Larissa Anderson, Julia Simon, Sofia Milan, Mahima Chablani, Elizabeth Davis-Moorer, Jeffrey Miranda, Renan Borelli, Maddy Masiello, Isabella Anderson and Nina Lassam.

Michael Crowley covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times. He has reported from nearly three dozen countries and often travels with the secretary of state. More about Michael Crowley

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