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Tourism on Track for Full Recovery as New Data Shows Strong Start to 2023

• All Regions

International tourism is well on its way to returning to pre-pandemic levels, with twice as many people travelling during the first quarter of 2023 than in the same period of 2022.

New Data from UNWTO: What We've Learned

The second UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year shows that the sector's swift recovery has continued into 2023. It shows that:

• Overall, international arrivals reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023
• An estimated 235 million tourists travelled internationally in the first three months, more than double the same period of 2022.
• Tourism has continued to show its resilience. Revised data for 2022 shows over 960 million tourists travelling internationally last year, meaning two-thirds (66%) of pre-pandemic numbers were recovered.

Recovery by Region in Q1 2023:

• The Middle East saw the strongest performance as the only region exceeding 2019 arrivals (+15%) and the first to recover pre-pandemic numbers in a full quarter.
• Europe reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels, driven by strong intra-regional demand.
• Africa reached 88% and the Americas about 85% of 2019 levels
• Asia and the Pacific accelerated its recovery with  54% of pre-pandemic levels, but this upward trend is set to accelerate now that most destinations, particularly China , have re-opened.

In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals

The UNWTO data also analyses recovery by sub-region and by destination: Southern Mediterranean Europe and North Africa have also recovered pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2023, while Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central America and the Caribbean all came close to reaching those levels.

What it Means:

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: "The start of the year has shown again tourism's unique ability to bounce back. In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals. However, we must remain alert to challenges ranging from geopolitical insecurity, staffing shortages, and the potential impact of the cost-of-living crisis on tourism, and we must ensure tourism's return delivers on its responsibilities as a solution to the climate emergency and as a driver of inclusive development."

International tourism receipts grew back to hit the USD1 trillion mark in 2022, growing 50% in real terms compared to 2021, driven by the important rebound in international travel. International visitor spending reached 64% of pre-pandemic levels (-36% compared to 2019, measured in real terms). By regions, Europe enjoyed the best results in 2022 with nearly USD 550 billion in tourism receipts (EUR 520 billion), or 87% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa recovered 75% of its pre-pandemic receipts, the Middle East 70% and the Americas 68%. Due to prolonged border shutdowns, Asian destinations earned about 28%.

International tourism receipts: Percentage of 2019 levels recovered in 2022(%) *

International tourist arrivals: percentage of 2019 levels recovered in q1 2023 (%)*, looking ahead: what's in store.

The Q1 2023 results are in line with UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for the year which project international arrivals to recover 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels. UNWTO's Panel of Experts expressed their confidence in a strong peak season (May-August) in the Northern Hemisphere, reflected in the latest UNWTO Confidence Index which indicates performance for the period is on track to be even better than 2022.

However, tourism's recovery also faces some challenges .  According to the UNWTO Panel of Experts, the economic situation remains the main factor weighing on the effective recovery of international tourism in 2023, with high inflation and rising oil prices translating into higher transport and accommodations costs.  As a result, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, also continue to represent downside risks.

International Tourist Arrivals, World and Regions

Related links.

• Download the News Release in PDF
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer - EXCERPT Volume 21 • Issue 2 • May 2023
• World Tourism Barometer (PPT version)
• The UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

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Economic Impact Research

• In 2023, the Travel & Tourism sector contributed 9.1% to the global GDP; an increase of 23.2% from 2022 and only 4.1% below the 2019 level.
• In 2023, there were 27 million new jobs, representing a 9.1% increase compared to 2022, and only 1.4% below the 2019 level.
• Domestic visitor spending rose by 18.1% in 2023, surpassing the 2019 level.
• International visitor spending registered a 33.1% jump in 2023 but remained 14.4% below the 2019 total.

Click here for links to the different economy/country and regional reports

Why conduct research?

From the outset, our Members realised that hard economic facts were needed to help governments and policymakers truly understand the potential of Travel & Tourism. Measuring the size and growth of Travel & Tourism and its contribution to society, therefore, plays a vital part in underpinning WTTC’s work.

What research does WTTC carry out?

Each year, WTTC and Oxford Economics produce reports covering the economic contribution of our sector in 185 countries, for 26 economic and geographic regions, and for more than 70 cities. We also benchmark Travel & Tourism against other economic sectors and analyse the impact of government policies affecting the sector such as jobs and visa facilitation.

Visit our Research Hub via the button below to find all our Economic Impact Reports, as well as other reports on Travel and Tourism. 

Global Tourism Sector Projected to Inject $10 Trillion into Economy

• November 6, 2023

Table of Contents

The global travel and tourism industry is projected to generate an impressive $10 trillion by the end of 2023, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). This comes as a remarkable recovery from the blow suffered by the industry during the COVID-19 pandemic. The President & CEO of the Council, Julia Simpson, shared this positive outlook at the 23rd Global Summit, adding that the industry may even surpass the $15 trillion mark within the next decade. Despite ongoing efforts in China to fully reopen travel and visa processes, the sector’s performance has exceeded expectations, with regions like Europe, Africa, and the Middle East experiencing higher-than-predicted growth rates. Furthermore, the industry’s commitment to environmental sustainability is evident as it grows with reduced greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2019 data. The travel and tourism sector is not only poised to exceed the $10 trillion benchmark, but it is also creating one in every five new jobs worldwide, according to WTTC Chair, Arnold Donald.

Global Travel and Tourism industry’s projections

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has made a remarkable prediction for the global travel and tourism industry. According to WTTC, the industry is expected to generate $10 trillion by the end of 2023, marking a significant milestone. This positive outlook was shared by Julia Simpson, the President & CEO of the Council, during the 23rd Global Summit. Simpson also stated that the industry has the potential to surpass the $15 trillion mark in the next decade. This projection highlights the resilience and quick recovery of the sector despite the blow it suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry

The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the tourism industry, causing a significant blow to its operations. Travel restrictions, lockdowns, and border closures led to a sharp decline in international travel and tourism activities. However, the industry has shown remarkable resilience and swift recovery. Many countries have put in efforts to reopen their borders and revitalize their tourism sectors. These reopening efforts include vaccination campaigns, implementation of health and safety protocols, and development of digital health passes. The tourism industry is adapting to the new normal and finding innovative ways to attract travelers while ensuring their safety.

Regional growth rates and contributions

Various regions around the world have experienced growth rates in the travel and tourism sector that exceeded initial predictions. Europe, Africa, and the Middle East have shown particularly strong performance. This growth can be attributed to factors such as increased investments in infrastructure, improved connectivity, and the development of unique tourism products. The contributions of different regions to the global market are significant. Regions like Europe have a long-standing reputation as a popular tourist destination, while Africa and the Middle East have been emerging as new and exciting travel destinations.

Travel and Tourism industry’s commitment to environmental sustainability

The travel and tourism industry has been making progress in its commitment to environmental sustainability. The sector has been working towards becoming more energy efficient and reducing its impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to pre-pandemic data, the industry has shown reduced greenhouse gas emissions as it continues to grow. This reduction can be attributed to various initiatives such as the adoption of renewable energy sources, implementation of sustainable practices in hotels and resorts, and the promotion of eco-friendly transportation options. The industry recognizes the importance of preserving the environment for future generations and is taking steps to minimize its carbon footprint.

Travel and tourism’s effect on greenhouse gas emission

It is important to acknowledge that travel and tourism have a responsibility for global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2019, the industry was responsible for 8.1% of the greenhouse gas emissions globally, according to WTTC data. As the sector continues to grow, efforts are being made to reduce its environmental impact. These efforts include the adoption of sustainable practices by airlines, hotels, and other tourism-related businesses. The industry is working towards minimizing its carbon footprint through initiatives like carbon offset programs and the use of cleaner and more fuel-efficient modes of transportation. By prioritizing sustainability, the industry aims to ensure a more responsible and environmentally-friendly approach to travel and tourism.

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Job creation in the travel and tourism sector

The travel and tourism sector plays a significant role in creating new employment opportunities globally. According to Arnold Donald, the WTTC Chair, one in every five new jobs being created today across the world is from the travel and tourism sector. This highlights the importance of the industry in job creation and its positive impact on the global job market. The sector not only provides direct employment in areas such as hospitality, transportation, and tour operators but also supports indirect employment in various related sectors. The growth of the travel and tourism industry contributes to economic development and provides livelihood opportunities for many individuals around the world.

Future outlook and forecasts for the industry

The future outlook for the travel and tourism industry is promising. With the projected value of the industry expected to exceed $10 trillion in the upcoming decade, there is significant potential for growth and expansion. The industry has shown resilience and the ability to recover from major challenges, as demonstrated by its swift recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Different regions are expected to experience varying growth rates, with emerging destinations in Africa and the Middle East anticipated to see particularly strong growth. The industry’s commitment to sustainability and its efforts to minimize its environmental impact will also contribute to its future success.

Challenges and hurdles in the travel and tourism industry

Despite the positive growth projections, the travel and tourism industry faces several challenges and hurdles. The reopening of travel and visa processes, particularly in countries like China, presents challenges due to the need for strict health and safety measures. Harmonizing environmental sustainability with industry growth is another challenge that the sector must address. Balancing the demand for travel and tourism with the need to protect the environment requires innovative solutions and collaboration between stakeholders. Additionally, the industry must navigate global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and changing travel patterns to maintain job creation rates and ensure sustainable growth.

WTTC’s role in projecting and promoting the tourism industry

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) plays a crucial role in projecting and promoting the tourism industry. The council engages in various activities and initiatives to support the growth and development of the industry. These include conducting research, providing insights and data, advocating for policies that benefit the industry, and promoting best practices. WTTC tracks industry growth and highlights the sector’s resilience and recovery in the face of challenges. The council serves as a platform for industry stakeholders to collaborate, share knowledge, and work towards a sustainable and prosperous future for the travel and tourism industry.

Long-term impact on the global economy

The travel and tourism industry has a significant impact on the global economy. It contributes to the global GDP and plays a crucial role in the global job market. The industry’s ability to create employment opportunities, stimulate economic growth, and generate revenue makes it a vital sector for countries around the world. In the next decade, the industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory and contribute even more to the global economy. As the industry evolves and adapts to new challenges and opportunities, it will play a crucial role in driving economic recovery, fostering international cooperation, and promoting cultural exchange and understanding.

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Now boarding: Faces, places, and trends shaping tourism in 2024

After falling by 75 percent in 2020, travel is on its way to a full recovery by the end of 2024. Domestic travel is expected to grow 3 percent annually and reach 19 billion lodging nights per year by 2030. 1 Unless otherwise noted, the source for all data and projections is Oxford Economics. Over the same time frame, international travel should likewise ramp up to its historical average of nine billion nights. Spending on travel is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with an estimated $8.6 trillion in traveler outlays in 2024, representing roughly 9 percent of this year’s global GDP.

About the authors

This article is a collaborative effort by Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann , with Ivan Gladstone and Jasperina de Vries, representing views from McKinsey’s Travel, Logistics & Infrastructure Practice.

There’s no doubt people still love to travel and will continue to seek new experiences in new places. But where will travelers come from, and where will they go? We developed a snapshot of current traveler flows, along with estimates for growth through 2030. For the purposes of this report, we have divided the world into four regions—the Americas, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East and Africa.

Our analysis identifies three major themes for industry stakeholders to consider:

• The bulk of travel spending is close to home. Stakeholders should ensure they capture the full potential of domestic travel before shifting their focus to international travelers. And they should start with international travelers who visit nearby countries—as intraregional trips represent the largest travel segment after domestic trips.
• Source markets are shifting. Although established source markets continue to anchor global travel, Eastern Europe, India, and Southeast Asia are all becoming fast-growing sources of outbound tourism.
• The destinations of the future may not be the ones you imagine. Alongside enduring favorites, places that weren’t on many tourists’ maps are finding clever ways to lure international travelers and establish themselves as desirable destinations.

The bulk of travel spending is close to home

International travel might feel more glamorous, but tourism players should not forget that domestic travel still represents the bulk of the market, accounting for 75 percent of global travel spending (Exhibit 1). Domestic travel recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic faster than international travel, as is typical coming out of downturns. And although there has been a recent boom in “revenge travel,” with travelers prioritizing international trips that were delayed by the pandemic, a return to prepandemic norms, in which domestic travel represents 70 percent of spending, is expected by 2030.

The United States is the world’s largest domestic travel market at $1 trillion in annual spending. Sixty-eight percent of all trips that start in the United States remain within its borders. Domestic demand has softened slightly, as American travelers return abroad. 2 Dawit Habtemariam, “Domestic U.S. tourism growth levels off as Americans head overseas,” Skift, August 18, 2023. But tourism players with the right offerings are still thriving: five national parks broke attendance records in 2023 (including Joshua Tree National Park, which capitalized on growing interest from stargazers indulging in “dark sky” tourism 3 Scott McConkey, “5 national parks set attendance records in 2023, and the reasons may surprise you,” Wealth of Geeks, April 16, 2024. ).

China’s $744 billion domestic travel market is currently the world’s second largest. Chinese travelers spent the pandemic learning to appreciate the diversity of experiences on offer within their own country. Even as borders open back up, Chinese travelers are staying close to home. And domestic destinations are benefiting: for example, Changchun (home to the Changchun Ice and Snow Festival) realized 160 percent year-on-year growth in visitors in 2023. 4 Shi Xiaoji, “Why don’t Chinese people like to travel abroad anymore? The global tourism industry has lost 900 billion yuan. What is the situation?,” NetEase, February 12, 2024. In 2024, domestic travel during Lunar New Year exceeded prepandemic levels by 19 percent.

China’s domestic travel market is expected to grow 12 percent annually and overtake the United States’ to become the world’s largest by 2030. Hotel construction reflects this expectation: 30 percent of the global hotel construction pipeline is currently concentrated in China. The pipeline is heavily skewed toward luxury properties, with more than twice as many luxury hotels under construction in China as in the United States.

India, currently the world’s sixth-largest domestic travel market by spending, is another thriving area for domestic travel. With the subcontinent’s growing middle class powering travel spending growth of roughly 9 percent per year, India’s domestic market could overtake Japan’s and Mexico’s to become the world’s fourth largest by 2030. Domestic air passenger traffic in India is projected to double by 2030, 5 Murali Krishnan, “Can India’s airports cope with rapid passenger growth?,” Deutsche Welle, February 7, 2024. boosted in part by a state-subsidized initiative that aims to connect underserved domestic airports. 6 “India is seeing a massive aviation boom,” Economist , November 23, 2023.

When travelers do go abroad, they often stay close to home (Exhibit 2).

Europe and Asia, in particular, demonstrate strong and growing intraregional travel markets.

Recognizing this general trend, stakeholders have been funneling investment toward regional tourism destinations. An Emirati wealth fund, for instance, has announced its intent to invest roughly $35 billion into established hospitality properties and development opportunities in Egypt. 7 Michael Gunn and Mirette Magdy, “UAE’s $35 billion Egypt deal marks Gulf powers’ buying spree,” Bloomberg, April 27, 2024.

Europe has long played host to a high share of intraregional travel. Seventy percent of its travelers’ international trips stay within the region. Europe’s most popular destinations for intraregional travelers are perennial warm-weather favorites—Spain (18 percent), Italy (10 percent), and France (8 percent)—with limited change to these preferences expected between now and 2030.

Despite longer travel distances between Asian countries, Asia’s intraregional travel market is beginning to resemble Europe’s. Intraregional travel currently accounts for about 60 percent of international trips in Asia—a share expected to climb to 64 percent by 2030. As in Europe in past decades, Asian intraregional travel is benefiting from diminishing visa barriers and the development of a low-cost, regional flight network.

Thailand is projected to enjoy continued, growing popularity with Asian travelers. Thailand waived visa requirements for Chinese tourists in 2023 and plans to do the same for Indian tourists starting in 2024. It has aggressively targeted the fast-growing Indian traveler segment, launching more than 50 marketing campaigns directed at Indians over the past decade. The investment may be paying off: Bangkok recently overtook Dubai as the most popular city destination for Indian tourists. 8 “Bangkok overtakes Dubai as top destination for Indians post visa relaxation, reveals Agoda,” PR Newswire, January 18, 2024.

A McKinsey ConsumerWise survey on consumer sentiment, conducted in February 2024, suggests that Chinese travelers are also exhibiting high interest in international travel, with 36 percent of survey respondents indicating that they intend to spend more on international travel in the next three months. 9 Daniel Zipser, “ China brief: Consumers are spending again (outside of China) ,” McKinsey, April 8, 2024. Much of this interest is directed toward regional destinations such as Southeast Asia and Japan, with interest in travel to Europe down from previous years. 10 Guang Chen, Zi Chen, Steve Saxon, and Jackey Yu, “ Outlook for China tourism 2023: Light at the end of the tunnel ,” McKinsey, May 9, 2023.

Given travelers’ preference for proximity, how can tourism stakeholders further capitalize on domestic and intraregional travel demand? Here are a few strategies:

• Craft offerings that encourage domestic tourists to rediscover local gems. Destinations, hotels, and transportation providers can encourage domestic tourists to integrate lesser-known cultural landmarks into their trips to visit friends and relatives. In France, the upscale hotel chain Relais & Châteaux markets historic properties that lie far from classic tourist sights—such as Château Saint-Jean in rural Auvergne—as a welcome escape from the bustle of Paris. In Mexico, the Pueblos Mágicos program has successfully boosted domestic tourist visits to a set of “magical towns” that showcase Mexican heritage.
• Fold one-off domestic destinations into fuller itineraries. Route 66 in the United States is a classic road trip pathway, which spurs visits to attractions all along the highway’s length. Tourism stakeholders can collaborate to create similar types of domestic itineraries around the world. For instance, Mexico has expanded on its Pueblos Mágicos concept by branding coordinated visits to multiple villages as “magical routes.” In France, local tourism boards and vineyards have collaborated to promote bucket list “wine routes” around the country.
• Make crossing borders into neighboring countries seamless. Removing logistical barriers to travel can nudge tourists to upgrade a one-off trip to a single attraction into a bucket list journey across multiple, less-trodden destinations. In Africa, for example, Ethiopian Airlines is facilitating cross-border travel to major regional tourist sites through improved air connectivity. In Asia, Thailand has announced its intent to create a joint visa easing travel among Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Source markets are shifting

The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and France remain the world’s five largest sources of travelers, in that order. These countries collectively accounted for 38 percent of international travel spending in 2023 and are expected to remain the top five source markets through 2030. But interest in travel is blossoming in other parts of the world—causing a shift in the balance of outbound travel flows (Exhibit 3).

North Americans’ travel spending is projected to hold steady at roughly 3 percent annual growth. US consumers voice growing concerns about inflation, and the most cost-constrained traveler segments are reducing travel, which is affecting ultra-low-cost airlines and budget hotels. Most travelers, however, plan to continue traveling: McKinsey research suggests that American consumers rank international and domestic travel as their highest-priority areas for discretionary spending. Instead of canceling their trips, these consumers are adapting their behavior by traveling during off-peak periods or booking travel further in advance. Travel spending by Europeans paints a slightly rosier picture, with roughly 5 percent projected annual growth. Meanwhile, the projected 12 percent annual growth in Chinese travelers’ spending should anchor substantial increases in travel spending across Northeast Asia.

Alongside these enduring traveler segments, new groups of travelers are emerging. Eastern Europe, India, and Southeast Asia are still comparatively small source markets, but they are developing fast-growing pools of first-time tourists (Exhibit 4).

India’s breakneck GDP growth of 6 percent year over year is bolstering a new generation of travelers, 11 Benjamin Laker, “India will grow to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027,” Forbes , February 23, 2024. resulting in a projected annual growth in travel spending of 9 percent between now and 2030. Indian air carriers and lodging companies are making substantial investments to meet projected demand. Budget airline IndiGo placed the largest aircraft order in commercial aviation history in 2023, when it pledged to buy 500 Airbus A320 planes 12 Anna Cooban, “Biggest plane deal in history: Airbus clinches massive order from India’s IndiGo,” CNN, June 19, 2023. ; that same week, Air India nearly equaled IndiGo’s order size with purchase agreements for 250 Airbus and 220 Boeing jets. IndiGo later added an order for 30 additional Airbus A350 planes, well suited to serving both domestic and international routes. 13 “Airbus confirms IndiGo's A350 aircraft order,” Economic Times , May 6, 2024. The Indian Hotels Company Limited is ramping up its hotel pipeline, aiming to open two new hotels per month in the near future. International players are not sitting on the sidelines: seven hotel chains are launching new brands in India in 2024, 14 Peden Doma Bhutia, “Indian Hotels expansion plans: 2 new brands launching, 2 hotels opening every month,” Skift, February 2, 2024. including Marriott’s first Moxy- and Tribute-branded hotels in India and entrants from Hilton’s Curio and Tapestry brands. 15 Forum Gandhi, “Check-in frenzy: International hotel giants unleash fresh brands in India’s booming hospitality landscape,” Hindu Businessline , February 13, 2024. Development focus has shifted away from major metropolises such as Mumbai and Delhi and toward fast-developing, smaller cities such as Chandigarh and Hyderabad.

Southeast Asian travel spending is projected to grow at roughly 7 percent per year. Pockets of particularly high growth exist in Cambodia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. To capitalize on this blossoming source market, neighboring countries are rolling out attractive visa arrangements: for example, China has agreed to reciprocal visa waivers for short-term travelers from Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. 16 Julienna Law, “China launches ‘visa-free era’ with Southeast Asia. Will travel retail boom?,” Jing Daily , January 30, 2024.

Travel spending by Eastern Europeans is expected to grow at 7 percent per year until 2030—two percentage points higher than spending by Western Europeans. Areas of especially high growth include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, where middle-class travelers are increasingly venturing farther afield. Major tourism players, including the TUI Group, have tapped into these new source markets by offering charter flights to warm-weather destinations such as Egypt. 17 Hildbrandt von Klaus, “TUI develops Czech Republic as a new source market,” FVW, December 22, 2023.

Although the number of travelers from these new source markets is growing, their purchasing power remains relatively limited. Compared with Western European travelers (who average $159 per night in total travel spending), South Asians spend 20 percent less, Eastern Europeans spend 40 percent less, and Southeast Asians spend 55 percent less. Only 3 percent of the current Asian hotel construction pipeline caters to economy travelers, suggesting a potential supply gap of rooms that could appeal to budget-constrained tourists.

While acknowledging that historical source markets will continue to constitute the bulk of travel spending, tourism players can consider actions such as these to capitalize on growing travel demand from newer markets:

• Reduce obstacles to travel. Countries can look for ways to strategically invest in simplifying travel for visitors from growing source markets. In 2017, for example, Azerbaijan introduced express processing of electronic visas for Indian visitors; annual arrivals from India increased fivefold in two years. Requirements regarding passport photocopies or in-person check-ins can similarly be assessed with an eye toward reducing red tape for travelers.
• Use culturally relevant marketing channels to reach new demographics. Unique, thoughtful marketing strategies can help destinations place themselves on first-time travelers’ bucket lists. For example, after the release of Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara , a popular Bollywood movie shot in Spain with support from the Spanish Ministry of Tourism, Indian tourism to Spain increased by 65 percent. 18 “ Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara part of syllabus in Spain colleges,” India Today , June 6, 2004.
• Give new travelers the tech they expect. Travelers from newer source markets often have access to tech-forward travel offerings. For example, Indian travelers can travel anywhere within their country without physical identification, thanks to the Digi Yatra app. The Southeast Asian rideshare app Grab has several helpful travel features that competitors lack, such as automated menu translation and currency conversion. Tourism stakeholders should consider how to adapt to the tech expectations of newer travelers, integrating relevant offerings that ease journeys.
• Create vibrant experiences tailored to different price points. Crafting lower-budget offerings for more cost-constrained travelers doesn’t need to result in giving them a subpar experience. Capsule hotels, in which guests sleep in small cubbies, began as a response to the high cost of accommodations in Japan, but they have become an attraction in their own right—appearing on many must-do lists. 19 Philip Tang, “24 of the best experiences in Japan,” Lonely Planet, March 23, 2024.

The places you’ll go: The destinations of the future may not be the ones you imagine

The world’s top ten destination countries (the United States, Spain, China, France, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Italy, Thailand, Japan, and India, in that order) currently receive 45 percent of all travel spending, including for domestic travel. But some new locales are gaining traction (Exhibit 5).

A significant number of travelers are expanding their horizons, booking journeys to less visited countries that are near to old standbys. For instance, Laos and Malaysia, which both border Thailand—an established destination that is home to Bangkok, the world’s most visited city 20 Katherine LaGrave, “This is the world’s most visited city,” AFAR , January 31, 2024. —are up a respective 20 percent and 17 percent, respectively, in year-over-year international travel spending.

The world’s top ten destination countries currently receive 45 percent of all travel spending, including domestic-travel spending. But some new locales are gaining traction.

Several other countries that have crafted thoughtful tourism demand generation strategies—such as Peru, the Philippines, Rwanda, and Vietnam—are also expected to reap benefits in the coming years. Vietnam logged a remarkable 40 percent increase in tourism spending in the five years before the pandemic. Postpandemic, it has rebounded in part by waiving visa requirements for European travelers (while indicating intent to offer similar exemptions in the future for Chinese and Indian travelers). 21 Ashvita Singh, “Vietnam looks to offer visa-free entry to Indians: India report,” Skift, November 20, 2023. The Philippines has made a concerted effort to shift its sun-and-beach branding toward a more well-rounded image, replacing its long-standing “It’s more fun in the Philippines” tourism slogan with “Love the Philippines.” Peru is highlighting less visited archeological sites while also marketing itself as a top-notch culinary destination through the promotion of Peruvian restaurants abroad. Rwanda is investing in infrastructure to become a major African transit hub, facilitated by Qatar Airways’ purchase of a 60 percent stake in the country’s major airport. 22 Dylan Cresswell, “Rwanda plots ambitious tourism recovery,” African Business , July 28, 2022. Rwanda has also successfully capitalized on sustainable tourism: by charging $1,500 per gorilla trekking permit, for instance, it has maximized revenue while reducing environmental impact.

Tourism players might consider taking some of these actions to lure tourists to less familiar destinations:

• Collaborate across the tourism ecosystem. Promotion is not solely the domain of destination marketing organizations. Accommodation, transportation, and experience providers can also play important roles. In Singapore, for instance, the luxury resort Marina Bay Sands partners extensively with Singapore Airlines and the Singapore Tourism Board to offer compelling tourism offerings. Past collaborations have included flight and stay packages built around culinary festivals. 23 “Singapore Tourism Board, Marina Bay Sands & UOB partner to enliven Marina Bay precinct,” Singapore Tourism Board news release, January 25, 2024.
• Use infrastructure linkage to promote new destinations. By extending route options, transportation providers can encourage visitors to create itineraries that combine familiar destinations with new attractions. In Asia, Thailand’s tourism authority has attempted to nudge visitors away from the most heavily trafficked parts of the country, such as Bangkok and Phuket, and toward less popular destinations.
• Deploy social media to reach different demographics. Innovative social media campaigns can help put a destination on the map. Australia launched its “Ruby the kangaroo” campaign in China to coincide with the return of postpandemic air capacity between the two places. A video adapted for Chinese context (with appropriate gestures and a hashtag in Mandarin) garnered more than 20 million views in a single day on one of China’s largest social media platforms. 24 Nicole Gong, “Can Ruby the kangaroo bring Chinese tourists hopping back to Australia?,” SBS, June 5, 2023.
• Embrace unknown status. “Off the beaten path” messaging can appeal to widely traveled tourists seeking fresh experiences. Saudi Arabia’s “#WhereInTheWorld” campaign promoted the country’s tourist spots by acknowledging that they are less familiar to travelers, using a series of images that compared these spots with better-known destinations.

As tourism stakeholders look to the future, they can take steps to ensure that they continue to delight existing travelers while also embracing new ones. Domestic and intraregional tourism remain major opportunities—catering to local tourists’ preferences while building infrastructure that makes travel more seamless within a region could help capture them. Creative collaboration among tourism stakeholders can help put lesser-known destinations on the map. Travel tides are shifting. Expertly navigating these currents could yield rich rewards.

Caroline Tufft is a senior partner in McKinsey’s London office, Margaux Constantin is a partner in the Dubai office, Matteo Pacca is a senior partner in the Paris office, Ryan Mann is a partner in the Chicago office, Ivan Gladstone is an associate partner in the Riyadh office, and Jasperina de Vries is an associate partner in the Amsterdam office.

The authors wish to thank Abdulhadi Alghamdi, Alessandra Powell, Alex Dichter, Cedric Tsai, Diane Vu, Elisa Wallwitz, Lily Miller, Maggie Coffey, Nadya Snezhkova, Nick Meronyk, Paulina Baum, Peimin Suo, Rebecca Stone, Sarah Fellay, Sarah Sahel, Steffen Fuchs, Steffen Köpke, Steve Saxon, Sophia Wang, and Urs Binggeli for their contributions to this article.

This article was edited by Seth Stevenson, a senior editor in the New York office.

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China’s Tourism Sector Prospects in 2023-24

Amid the post-pandemic recovery, China's tourism sector is rebounding with vigor in 2023. We discuss the resurgence of outbound and domestic travel, evolving traveler behavior, and tech-enabled trends in this article. From cultural exploration to wellness escapes and digital integration, the stage is set for foreign businesses and investors to seize opportunities in this transformed landscape.

• Easing of travel restrictions;
• Increase in disposable income among Chinese consumers; and
• Growing popularity of domestic tourism.

China's evolving tourism landscape

Insights from outbound tourism in h1 of 2023.

Data from the World Tourism Alliance's reports, reveal that the outbound tourism sentiment index reached 28 percent in the first half of 2023, marking a 21-point increase from the same period in 2019. The outbound tourism market has displayed a gradual "U-shaped" recovery, emphasizing a steady resurgence rather than an abrupt rebound.

• South Korea;
• United Kingdom; and

Starting from February 20, 2023, mainland cities within the Greater Bay Area initiated a pilot implementation of visa endorsements for cross-border talent to and from Hong Kong and Macao. On May 15, 2023, policies such as the nationwide implementation of group travel endorsements for mainland residents traveling to Hong Kong and Macao were fully restored.

The streamlined and optimized policies for travel to Hong Kong and Macao prompted provinces across the mainland to organize multiple tour groups, leading to a consistent rise in mainland visitors to these regions. According to data released by the Hong Kong Tourism Board, nearly 13 million visitors arrived in Hong Kong in the first half of 2023, of which approximately 10 million were mainland visitors, accounting for around 77 percent of the total.

Furthermore, based on recent data released by the National Immigration Administration, the first half of 2023 witnessed a total of 168 million inbound and outbound individuals passing through China’s immigration, marking a year-on-year increase of 169.6 percent.

At the same time, approximately 42.798 million entry and exit permits for travel to and from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were issued, indicating a significant 1509 percent increase compared to the same period in 2022.

These figures further underline China's promising revival in outbound tourism. Indeed, Chinese tourists have once again become a significant force driving global tourism and offline consumption.

In terms of outbound travel numbers, the top 10 departure cities were: Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai, Chengdu, and Wuhan. This highlights that outbound travel is mainly concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities, with the "Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Foshan-Dongguan-Zhuhai" Greater Bay Area cities also playing a pivotal role in outbound tourism.

The primary reason driving Chinese tourists to travel abroad is leisure, with business and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) as the subsequent motivations. The rapid expansion of outbound tourism from China can be attributed to the rising incomes of the middle class , the growing desire among Chinese travelers to explore diverse countries and cultures, and the ease of obtaining visas and fulfilling entry criteria for various destinations.

The steady recovery of outbound tourism

Business travel intentions have tripled, and interest in education, family visits, and medical tourism abroad is also on the rise. Other findings align, revealing that 50 percent of Chinese travelers plan to journey internationally within the next year.

A significant shift has also occurred in travel fears, particularly concerning Covid contraction. While it topped travelers' concerns in 2022, it has diminished to the least worrisome aspect this year, as per Morning Consult's survey. This shift reflects growing traveler confidence. Factors influencing this gradual recovery go beyond preferences. A recent report from the Mastercard Economics Institute reveals a shift in Chinese residents' spending patterns.

Known for their shopping inclination, there's a rising trend toward investing in experiences over possessions, particularly in a zero-Covid environment. Despite global economic uncertainties, Asia-Pacific's, including China's, travel recovery remains steady. As travel capacity grows, costs are anticipated to decrease, fueling a more dynamic travel landscape.

The Chinese government’s recent efforts to revive outbound group travel

While the relaxed restrictions will moderately boost outbound tourism, obstacles and cautious spending persist. Nonetheless, domestic travel agencies are expected to see increased revenue, leading to employment and income growth in the sector.

Domestic tourism is thriving

The remarkable rebound of China's domestic tourism sector can be attributed to a set of factors that differentiate it from the relatively slower recovery of outbound tourism. For one, the domestic tourism industry appears to be less affected by uncertainties surrounding employment and income growth compared to other service and retail sectors.

This is primarily due to the strong yearning of Chinese consumers to explore after years of mobility limitations imposed by the pandemic.

On the other hand, the prolonged revival of outbound flights has further bolstered the domestic tourism scene. Many individuals redirected their travel plans within China as international travel remained limited.

Changing Chinese travelers’ preferences in 2023

Around 8.7 billion domestic trips were taken, indicating an annual rate of around 50 percent of pre-pandemic levels. This period allowed the domestic market to mature, and travelers became more sophisticated in their pursuits, engaging in various new leisure experiences such as beach resorts, skiing trips, and city "staycations."

• Experiences matter: Survey data reveals that the rejuvenated Chinese tourist is driven by experiential travel. While outdoor and scenic trips remain popular, the preferences have evolved. Sightseeing and culinary experiences, highly valued in the initial survey series, are now joined by a growing interest in culture and history, beaches, and resorts, as well as health and wellness. This shift solidifies the trend towards experience-driven travel. Additionally, activities like skiing and snowboarding have gained popularity, possibly influenced by the 2022 Beijing Olympic Winter Games .
• Digital expert: Chinese travelers are among the world's most digitally adept consumers, easily integrating mobile technologies and social media into their daily lives. The pandemic further propelled their online engagement. Short-form videos and livestreaming have emerged as dominant online entertainment options.
• Curious: The desire to explore novel experiences in unfamiliar destinations remains strong among Chinese travelers. Despite travel radius limitations imposed by policies, survey respondents express eagerness to visit new attractions. Instead of revisiting familiar places, 45 percent of participants prioritize short trips to new sites, while long trips to new destinations are the second most favored option.

Emerging trends and destinations

Cultural and heritage tourism.

This trend is particularly pronounced in the realm of domestic tourism, where travelers are flocking to heritage sites and cultural landmarks to gain a deeper understanding of China's rich heritage.

Wellness tourism

This evolving trend has prompted destinations like Thailand to proactively adapt by refining their offerings. Through the enhancement of health tourism services and a focus on engaging student and youth travelers, Thailand has positioned itself as a prime destination for those seeking rejuvenation and self-care during their journeys.

Tech-enabled tourism in China’s innovative travel landscape

• Smart appliances and IoT integration: China's tech-driven tourism trend showcases the integration of smart appliances and the Internet of Things (IoT) into the travel journey. Travelers now wield the power to personalize their environment and encounters via smartphone apps. Innovations range from smart hotel rooms adjusting lighting, temperature, and ambiance to IoT-enabled transportation providing real-time updates, enhancing comfort and efficiency.
• Virtual and augmented reality immersion: Tech-savvy Chinese travelers are increasingly seeking immersive encounters. Virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) have taken center stage, enabling tourists to explore historical sites, cultural landmarks, and natural marvels through virtual tours that breathe life into destinations. This not only enhances engagement but also serves as a potent tool for destination marketing.
• Seamless contactless services and digital payments : Contactless services and digital payments have become integral to China's tech-enhanced tourism scene. Travelers can navigate touchpoints like check-in, security, dining, and shopping with minimal physical interaction. QR codes have revolutionized payment methods, enabling transactions through smartphones, and eliminating the need for physical currency or cards, in alignment with the country's cashless society drive.

Preparing for the return of Chinese tourists to the international scene

Crafting authentic and familiar experiences.

They are looking beyond traditional shopping and sightseeing, expressing a keen interest in entertainment and experiential offerings. Theme parks, cultural activities, water sports, snow sports, and shows are among the sought-after activities.

The key is to offer authentic experiences that resonate with Chinese travelers' desires for immersion, while still maintaining a touch of familiarity.

Harnessing the power of social media

The burgeoning trend of city-walking , for example, where urban exploration is undertaken solely on foot, has not only captured the attention of locals but has also made significant waves across various social media platforms. Chinese netizens are embracing this form of experiential travel, and businesses can leverage social media to align with their preferences.

Platforms like Douyin, China's counterpart to TikTok, have witnessed the rise of “city-walk content”. A recent video showcasing city-walk routes in Guangzhou amassed over 171,000 likes and found its way into the favorites of 72,000 viewers.

Furthermore, Xiaohongshu, a prominent lifestyle-sharing platform in China, reported a remarkable 30-fold increase in searches related to city walk during the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year.

Collaboration with Internet giants

For instance, Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport offers a WeChat Mini Program providing information about the airport, including duty-free shopping and travel planning. Alibaba's Alipay, renowned for its mobile payment capabilities, has partnered with tax refund agencies to streamline the tax refund process for Chinese travelers.

Prioritize direct-to-consumer (D2C) channels

Key takeaways: navigating china’s tourism resurgence.

Domestically, easier travel rules and higher incomes are fueling local exploration. Internationally, outbound tourism is gradually recovering with a focus on immersive experiences, wellness, and cultural discovery.

Chinese travelers are becoming more tech-savvy, seeking out tech-enhanced experiences like virtual reality tours. This shift is boosting cultural, heritage, and wellness tourism.

Social media, especially platforms like TikTok and WeChat, are vital for engaging with Chinese travelers effectively.

In essence, China's tourism resurgence is multifaceted, with travelers seeking enriched experiences, digital engagement, and authenticity.

Businesses that align with these preferences and capitalize on domestic and international opportunities are likely to thrive in the evolving travel landscape.

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