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Tour de France 2023 Predictions - Yellow jersey winner, stage victors, the best team and more

We make our bets on which riders will reign supreme in the 2023 edition of La Grande Boucle

Words: Rachel Jary

The biggest race in the cycling calendar is fast approaching in the form of the 2023 Tour de France . Steep roads and wild fans await the peloton in the Basque Country for the race’s Grand Départ and the stakes are as high as ever for this year’s edition of the race. 

2023 winner Jonas Vingegaard returns to defend his yellow jersey, but two-time winner Tadej Pogačar is hungry to reaffirm his dominance. Mark Cavendish is looking to get his 35th stage win, but there’s a stacked list of fast sprinters who are going to make his life difficult. There’s breakaway specialists who are ready to pounce when the chances arise, and Tour de France debutants who could really make their mark on this race.

So who will come away from the Tour satisfied and who will be left wanting more? These are our predictions of the winners and losers.

Yellow jersey winner

There is no denying that the yellow jersey is the most coveted prize in cycling. Winning the Tour de France is the dream of many professional riders and, for the few who succeed, it changes their lives forever. That very thing happened for Jumbo-Visma’s Jonas Vingegaard last year when he surprised many by beating two-time Tour de France winner Tadej Pogačar, dropping him on the brutal Col du Granon in a stage that will go down for the ages. Both riders return to the Tour in 2023 with Vingegaard hoping to defend his title and Pogačar with dreams of getting back to the top step of the podium, but who will get the outcome they are hoping for?

Best sprinter

The beauty and complexity of the Tour de France is that it is about far more than just the battle for the overall general classification victory. Stage wins for sprinters on the flatter days of the Tour are extremely coveted – Mark Cavendish currently shares the record for the most Tour de France stage wins with Eddy Merckx, both riders have won 34 stages in their respective careers. In 2023, Cavendish will ride his final Tour de France with Astana-Qazaqstan with the aim of getting one final stage win so he can hold the record of the winningest rider in Tour history. However, for the British sprinter who is in the twilight of his career, a stage win in the 2023 edition of Le Tour is  a tall order, he has some tough competition to contend with.

The likes of Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny), Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-Alula), Sam Welsford (Team dsm-fermenich), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché - Circus - Wanty), Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal–Quick-Step), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) are just a few of the main sprinters who will want to challenge Cavendish for stage wins. Record or no record, victories will not be gifted to the Manxman in this Tour de France. Of the stacked list of sprinters taking part in the race, we expect Jakobsen to be the best of the bunch. Quick Step have a team almost solely dedicated to leading out the Belgian, with Danish rider Michael Mørkøv (widely regarded as the best lead out man in the world), serving as Jakobsen’s last man. Mørkøv’s wheel can give sprinters a red carpet ride to the finish line and it led Jakobsen to two stage victories at the Baloise Belgium Tour recently, the penultimate race that Jakobsen will do before the Tour de France. It should be on stages three and four that the sprinters get their first chances to shine after a hilly opening two days in the Basque Country and Jakobsen will be leading the charge in the colours of  Soudal–Quick-Step .

Best debutant

This year’s Tour de France sees a number of riders taking on the three week race for the first time in their careers. The youngest rider on the current startlist is Carlos Rodríguez of the Ineos Grenadiers and it will also be the Spanish rider’s first ever attempt at La Grande Boucle. Rodríguez recently won the white jersey at the Critérium du Dauphiné and finished ninth overall. His role for Ineos at the Tour de France is currently unclear, but he will either be one to watch in the white jersey competition if he is riding for GC, or fight for stage wins if he is given the freedom to get in the breakaways when the opportunity arises. 

Another rider competing in the Tour de France for the first time is Mattias Skjelmose of Lidl-Trek. Skjelmose surprised many by taking victory at the recent Tour de Suisse , riding with impressive strength and maturity. Skjelmose’s performances so far this season have been beyond expectations, he was second in La Flèche Wallonne – the parcours of which are similar to the opening stages in the Basque Country in this year’s Tour de France. From Bora-Hansgrohe, this is also the first time that last year’s Giro d’Italia winner Jai Hindley will race in the Tour de France – he is one to watch for the general classification. 

On the side of the sprinters, Biniam Girmay starts in the Tour de France for the first time in his career this year – the Eritrean rider proved he was back to winning form at the Tour de Suisse when he outsprinted Arnaud Démare and Wout van Aert on stage two. We can expect more of this from Girmay in the Tour. Sam Welsford of Team DSM has proven to be another promising fast man so far in his career so could be one to keep an eye on during the flatter stages. It will certainly be a test to see if Welsford, who originally comes from track cycling, can get himself over the arduous mountain tests of the Tour de France.

Of all the debutants in this year’s race, we expect Skjelmose and Girmay to be the two key riders to watch.

Breakaway specialists

And for the days in between, that aren’t for the sprinters and aren’t for the general classification riders, there are chances for the breakaway. The Tour de France provides unusual opportunities for riders with varied skill sets to take stage wins – there is often little incentive for the strong GC teams to chase down the breakaway if it contains riders who aren’t of any danger for challenging for yellow. This means that riders who are brave, courageous and believe in their chance to win can often leave the Tour de France with stage wins to their name – something that has the potential to change a rider’s career path forever. 

Every year as the Tour rolls round, there are the usual candidates that we can expect to make themselves known in the breakaways when the chances arise. EF Education-EasyPost are a team with a number of riders who can perform well from a small group and play the breakaway game well. Magnus Cort, Alberto Bettiol and Nielson Powless are all riders from the team in pink who we can expect to see fighting to make the move when the time comes. Fred Wright of Bahrain-Victorious was a common face seen in the breakaway in last year’s Tour de France, coming close to stage wins on multiple occasions – he’ll be hoping to finally secure his first professional victory this season. His teammate, Matej Mohorič, is one to watch for the breakaway and intermediate days too. Julian Alaphilippe of  Soudal–Quick-Step  will dream of a stage win on those opening punchy stages in the Basque Country.

Valentin Madouas and Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) are a duo who could fight for stage wins on the hillier days, but this will depend on if Pinot goes for the general classification or not. In fact, there are quite a few riders who fall in the category of those who could target the overall GC, but will move to hunting stage wins if they end up losing time due to a mishap in the earlier stages. These include the likes of Michael Woods and Nick Schultz (Isreal-Premier Tech) and Tom Pidcock (Ineos-Grenadiers). Wildcard team UNO-X Pro Cycling will also want to prove worthy of their spot in the race this year and will certainly be active in breakaways, Tobias Halland Johannessen and Anthon Charmig are two of their riders who could be up there on the hillier stages.

Most successful team

The official team classification at the Tour de France is decided by taking the time of each squad’s top three finishers on every stage (apart from in a team time trial, when the time of the fifth rider to cross the finish is counted, or the last if there are fewer than five riders remaining.) The team with the lowest cumulative time across the race so far leads the classification. It isn’t a classification that team’s normally target and doesn’t usually represent the overall success of a team – it doesn’t take into account stage wins or the work of domestiques.

We think that a team’s success at the Tour de France should be judged with a wider view than the current team classification shows – stage wins, team unity and tactics also should play a part in deciding which team has given the best performance. In 2023, we’re finding it hard to look past Jumbo-Visma as the strongest team in the race. Wout van Aert can perform well in the sprint stages and intermediate stages, but has also proven his ability to be a impressive mountain domestique; Sepp Kuss is consistently reliable in the high mountains too, able to ride with the strongest climbers; Christophe Laporte, Nathan Van Hooydonck and Tiesj Benoot are all-rounders who can protect Vingegaard when necessary and also go for stage wins themselves if given the chance; while Wilco Kelderman is another rider to rely on in the mountains – proving that with his recent fourth place finish at the Tour de Suisse. Jumbo-Visma will come to the Tour as defending champions and know how to win a three-week race.

Dutiful domestique

The role of a domestique is one of the most important in cycling – a good domestique can make the difference between their leader winning and losing a Grand Tour. Wout van Aert proved himself to be one of the best in the race in last year’s Tour de France, sacrificing his own chances of stage wins when required to help Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma, notably on the cobbles in stage five. Similarly Brandon McNulty and Mikkel Bjerg were extremely valuable to Pogačar in the latter stages of last year’s race when he was trying to hold on to the yellow jersey – the Tour de France is not a race that can be won alone.

In 2023, we expect Sepp Kuss to be an extremely valuable domestique to Vingegaard in the high mountains. The American rider likely has the class and talent to go for a Tour de France victory himself, but has spoken publicly about enjoying the role of a domestique and being at peace with sacrificing his own chances. Last year, Kuss was absolutely crucial to Jumbo-Visma’s victory, able to stay with Vingegaard and Pogačar on the hardest sections of the most difficult mountain stages. Similarly, Rafał Majka is going to be crucial to Pogačar in the mountains – the Polish rider was forced to abandon last year’s Tour on stage 17 but has proven this season that he is in good form ahead of the Tour. Whichever domestique can do the best work for their leader as late into the race as possible will be seen as the most valuable – it’s important that a team has as many riders as they can as the stages get difficult.

Cover image: Zac Williams/SWpix

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Tour de France – stage 6 preview and predictions

As the dust literally settles down after an expected dramatic pavés stage, a LeadOut quickly summarises the two main points to carry forward:

Mathieu Van der Poel is not bluffing. He is definitely not in form while  Primoz Roglic has crashed and dislocated his shoulder.

Race preview:

The finale could have been an affair for Mathieu Van der Poel. Sadly he seems to be suffering from the electric Giro he had. Wout Van Aert would again dominate such a stage, but it would be very unwise from his team to use their man to control such a long stage, particularly with the super Planche de Belles Filles tomorrow. Unles Bahrain Victorious, who has lost their co-leader Jack Haig on the pavés, decides to take it on for Dylan Teuns .

A breakaway win is the most logical settlement, and there will be a rush to the get into it at the stage start. Team Lotto Soudal and Trek Segafredo could however decide to control things for Caleb Ewan and Mads Pedersen respectively.

Stage 6 predictions

★★☆☆☆  Jasper Stuyven 

Prior to an amazing pavés performance, he was one of the last riders, Van Aert shaked off that climb! If he manages to get into a breakaway, he has more chances compared with staying in the peloton and sharing leadership with Mads Pedersen and even Bauke Mollema today.

★★☆☆☆ Caleb Ewan

In the most unlikely scenario that none of the Lotto Soudal riders manages to get into a breakaway, the Belgian team will ride for their pocket sprinter. The last km punchy finish is much to his advantage  

★★☆☆☆  Alexis Vuillermoz

One of the best puncheurs in the world. He will be a hard man to beat if he is in the break.

★★☆☆☆  Dylan Teuns 

After dominating the Mur de Huy earlier this year, he will be the most awaited man today. He will be watched today, thus it will be a little more complicated for him to get into a breakaway and get them to work.

★☆☆☆☆ Magnus Cort 

It will now be a surprise if he is not in the break, the finish favours him but it is the Yellow jersey that he now wants.

★☆☆☆☆  Andreas Kron 

He is one of the many riders that Lotto soudal could bet on in a break away.

★☆☆☆☆ Alberto Bettiol 

He seems to be feeling good after working with Pogacar to chase his own teammate. He could win either from a break or the peloton.

★☆☆☆☆  Matej Mohoric  Whether from a most likely breakaway or frol the peloton, he will have to go from a long shot though, and win. Something that he is more than capable of accomplishing.

★☆☆☆☆  Tadej Pogacar  

It will be absolutely crazy from him and his team to be work for a stage win just to stamp their authority. More demanding days are ahead.

You watch now the stage with us here :

You can follow A LeadOut on Twitter for updates on Velogames contents.

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Tour de France 2023 Preview: Key Stages, Contenders, and Predictions

The 2023 Tour de France is here! Here's everything you need to know from contenders, GC favorites, and stages you won't want to miss.

It is that time of year again: Le Tour de France is upon us. With last year’s thrilling general classification (GC) battle and the release of the Netflix docuseries Tour de France: Unchained, the anticipation for the 2023 lap around France is high. The favorites for the yellow jersey are once again the ever-familiar faces of Tadej Pogačar and defending champion Jonas Vingegaard. 

Although these two riders are the bookie’s favorites, a deep field of GC talent is expected at the 2023 Tour . Richard Carapaz, the newly minted EF Education First-EasyPost rider, is likely another major contender. He’ll be coming off the back of a strong effort at the Criterium du Dauphine, where he ultimately finished second.  Teams have just announced their squads for the race, fortifying their teams with high-mountain talent to support GC ambitions. With the lack of time trial kilometers in this year’s Tour, the fight for the yellow jersey will be decided in the mountains , which are plentiful.

Key Stages in the 2023 Tour

Stage 9: saint-léonard-de-noblat – puy de dôme (184 km, 3441m), sunday, july 9.

Stage 9 will be the first opportunity to see who brought their best climbing legs to the Tour. The stage finishes up the 12.6km, 7.8% Hors Categorie Puy de Dôme. This is its first appearance in the Tour de France in 35 years. 

This mythical volcano finish features consistently steep gradients, with the final 4.5km of the climb averaging over 12%. A rest day awaits the peloton after this stage, so we can expect to see teams go full-throttle from the very beginning of the climb. There is more to gain other than time as GC teams and riders will look for a tactical advantage during this stage.  Whichever team can dominate this stage and set up their rider for victory will have an edge going into the high Alps later in the race.

Stage 15: Les Gets Les Portes du Soleil – Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc Le Bettex (180 km, 4527m), Sunday July 16

Stage 15 is one of the more interesting and unpredictable mountain stages of this year’s Tour. The stage features five categorized climbs in the final 100 kilometers, totaling 4,527 meters of elevation gain. The crux of the parcours is the final two climbs, with a one-two punch of the second category Côte de Amerands followed by the final first category climb of Le Bettex. These come in rapid succession, with only a one-kilometer descent between them.

Going into this stage, we should expect more separation in the GC standings, meaning that the team with the yellow jersey is expected to control the whole day. Because of the difficulty of pacing for a stage like this, there is a good chance that the breakaway will fight for stage honors. However, the GC battle will be explosive regardless. 

Unlike Stage 9, the peloton will have to tackle some of the biggest climbs of the race before reaching the finale of Stage 15. The penultimate test will be the Col de la Croix Fry, averaging just over 7% for 11.4 kilometers. This stage should show us which of the GC contenders are able to deal with fatigue effectively, as this stage caps off the second week of racing. Expect fireworks, as anyone who is close to getting their hands on the yellow jersey will be vying for the lead before entering the final week of the race.

Stage 17: Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc – Courchevel (166 km, 5405m), Wednesday, July 19

The 166km queen stage of this year’s Tour de France is a doozy. Every GC contender will have this stage in the back of their mind — some will find it daunting, others as an exciting opportunity. 

The defining climb is Col de la Loze, a whopping 28.3-kilometer climb, peaking at over 2300 meters in altitude. It’s the final of four categorized climbs and is significantly more difficult than the preceding climbs. With proportions as epic as this, the GC race could blow wide open. Riders will crack, others will attack, some might succumb to the altitude, and others will thrive.

Whoever is in yellow at the start of the day will have their work cut out for themselves and their team, as any rider close in the GC standings will be giving everything they have to take time back. I recommend watching this stage from kilometer zero, as teams will try early and often to break this race open well before hitting the slopes of Col de la Loze. Whoever is in the yellow jersey in Courchevel is very likely to be the winner of the 2023 Tour de France.

GC Favorites & Contenders

The field of contenders at this year’s Tour is deep. Since this year’s race features some of the most difficult, high-mountain terrain, teams are insulating their GC contenders with their best climbers. Jai Hindley, Jack Haig, Ben O’Connor, Romain Bardet, and David Gaudu are just some of the riders that will be looking to upset the expected battle between Vingegaard and Pogačar. 

Vingegaard vs. Pogačar

Two riders guaranteed to be there are defending champion Jonas Vingegaard and two-time champion Tadej Pogačar. These two are arguably the best grand tour and GC racers in the peloton. Last year, we saw a tight battle between the two throughout the first week and a half until Vingegaard was able to crack open Pogačar on Stage 11 in the high mountains. He maintained this lead until Paris.

Vingegaard is considered the favorite coming into this year’s race after a dominant performance at the Criterium du Dauphine. He’ll also have the strongest team in the Dutch outfit of Jumbo-Visma, an incredibly well-drilled squad with deep talent that played a crucial role in his 2022 victory. 

Jumbo-Visma

This year, Jumbo-Visma is set to bring a team that is just as strong with only minimal substitutes from the 8-man team of 2022. The newly signed Dutch duo of Wilco Kelderman and Dylan van Baarle will be the crucial mountain domestiques for Vingegaard, as well as the Belgian superstar Wout van Aert. Wout was an important player in the final mountain stages for Vingegaard, and I would not be surprised to see the big Belgian do the same in this year’s Tour.

UAE Team Emirates

UAE Team Emirates is looking to disrupt the mountain dominance of Jumbo-Visma, hoping to add to Pogačar’s current collection of yellow jerseys. Pogačar is coming off a broken wrist suffered in April of this year at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. He has not raced since. This could benefit the young Slovenian as he has spent the past few months completely focused on the Tour; however, a lack of race days could prove costly in the build-up of his fitness. 

Last year, UAE looked to be in rough shape in the high mountains, often leaving Pogačar alone in key moments of mountain stages. They experienced some unfortunate luck with some of their domestiques abandoning the race early due to injury and illness. This year, they’ll be looking to turn that around. Adam Yates and Rafał Majka will be Pogačar’s main helpers in the high mountains as former Tour de Romandie and polka dot jersey winners, respectively. 

Pogačar will need to be patient compared to last year, where he seemed to play all of his cards by the end of the first half of the race. UAE will wait in the wings of the Jumbo-Visma team, eyeing an opportunity to pounce on any weakness.

EF Education First-EasyPost

Richard Carapaz will be the frontman for the EF Education First-EasyPost, piloting one of the stronger GC teams that EF has been able to field. The team also likely includes recent signee and mountain domestique, Andrey Amador.

Carapaz, the current Olympic Champion, has stood on the podium of four grand tours, including the top step of the 2019 Giro d’Italia. He’ll be looking to add to his tally with his new team. Rigoberto Urán will likely be a member of the squad as well, potentially gunning for his own result in GC. This edition of the Tour seems to suit both of these riders as they tend to suffer with individual time trials.

Neilson Powless will be another domestique that will aid the duo in the later mountain stages, but we might see him get a few opportunities of his own for a stage victory. The team tactics should be interesting — we’ll see how they can balance the ambitions of their two South American climbers. It will be an uphill battle for the gentlemen in pink to secure the yellow jersey in Paris, but it’s the Tour de France. Anything can happen.

Predictions

The Tour is primed to be a two-horse race between Vingegaard and Pogačar, with Vingegaard having the slight advantage coming into the race according to the bookies. However, I think that by the Champs-Élyseés, the young Slovenian, Pogačar, will be bringing home his third Tour victory in four years.  

Pogočar has been quiet in recent months, slowly recovering from his injury sustained in April and dialing in his training for the Tour de France. This will benefit Pogačar, who should ride into form throughout the race. I am expecting him to lose a bit of time in the first ten days of the race as Vingegaard is already in stellar form. UAE Team Emirates is hungry for redemption, so their team will be well-organized with a concise plan on how to best the Jumbo-Visma squad. 

Regardless of who wins, this year’s Tour is set to be a fantastic race. Limited time trial kilometers and challenging mountain stages will provide an entertaining battle for the yellow jersey. The most celebrated and renowned bike race in the world is just one week away and I, for one, can’t wait to see what this year’s edition brings.

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Henry Lutz is a former competitive road cyclist. From the age of 14, he raced at the highest level in the United States as well as abroad. He is a fan of all things professional cycling, with a focus on World Tour road racing. In recent years, he has stepped away from high-level racing, but has continued a career within the cycling industry.

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Tour de France 2022 route and stages – Schedule, key dates and predictions in battle for yellow jersey

Updated 29/06/2022 at 18:43 GMT

The biggest bike race in the world begins on July 1 in Copenhagen. Every one of the 21 stages of the 2022 Tour de France will be important but, in determining who stands on the podium in Paris wearing the famous maillot jaune, some will surely be more important than others. Nick Christian selects a magnificent seven, when you won't want to miss a minute of the action on Eurosport and discovery+.

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TOUR DE FRANCE 2022 - THE ROUTE

Tour de france 2022 route map.

TOUR DE FRANCE 2022 - KEY STAGES

Stage 1, july 1: copenhagen - copenhagen (13.2km, itt).

Stage 5, July 6: Lille - Wallers-Arenberg (153.7km, cobbles)

Stage 7, July 8: Tomblaine to La Super Planche des Belles Filles (176.3km, mountains)

Stage 11, July 13: Albertville to Col de Granon (151.7km, mountains)

Stage 14, July 16: Saint-Etienne - Mende (192.5km, hills)

Stage 18, July 21: Lourdes - Hautacam (143.2km, mountains)

Stage 20, July 23: Lacapelle-Marival - Rocamadour (40.7km, ITT)

And the winner is...

Tadej Pogacar celebrates in yellow

Image credit: Getty Images

Rodriguez beats Jorgenson to Stage 8 sprint finish, Roglic wins overall

Roglic admits he is ‘quite limited in left shoulder’ despite stunning stage 6 win, ‘never count this man out’ – roglic shrugs off injury concerns to triumph on stage 6.

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Tour de France 2023: stage-by-stage guide to this year’s race

The Grand Départ will be in the Basque Country this year before crossing the Pyrenees and then heading across the Massif Central

Stage 1, Saturday 1 July: Bilbao-Bilbao, 182km

The Tour starts in Spain’s foremost cycling heartland, with a stage through the Basque Country hills which will give many the jitters. Four stiff ascents in the final 80km with the Côte de Pike less than 10km from the line means an initial sort-out of the field; at least one favourite could lose the race here. The finish is made for Julian Alaphilippe, so France will expect a win and yellow jersey.

Stage 2, Sunday 2 July: Vitoria Gasteiz-San Sebastián, 209km

More straightforward but still hillier than most early Tour stages, with the Alto de Jaizkibel 16km from the finish; this 8km drag is well known to cycling fans as the key point in the San Sebastián Classic. It will shred the field, so a select group should contest the finish, suiting all rounders such as Wout van Aert or Magnus Cort. For the favourites, it’s about limiting any time loss.

Stage 3, Monday 3 July: Amorebieta-Bayonne, 187.4km

Finally, something resembling a normal stage for the Tour’s opening week. There are several nasty little Basque Country climbs but they come early in the stage and the run-out is downhill. So it’s bunch sprint time, which means British eyes will be on Mark Cavendish, although the chances are it will be last year’s sprint star, Fabio Jakobsen, in the spotlight.

Stage 4, Tuesday 4 July: Dax-Nogaro, 181.8km

Even flatter than Monday, so another bunch sprint day; for the overall contenders it’s again about staying upright. A north wind may liven things up, but it’s more likely to be a slog through the heat before Cavendish, Jakobsen, Caleb Ewan, Dylan Groenewegen and company fight it out. Big question: will Jumbo-Visma let Van Aert join in, or will he save his strength to support Jonas Vingegaard when the race enters the Pyrenees?

Stage 5, Wednesday July 5: Pau-Laruns, 163km

Two super-steep and gratingly long climbs in the Pyrenees will give a real idea of who is in for the win. It’s 44 years since the Tour has had ascents this severe this early in the race, and there could be as few as a dozen riders in the hunt at the finish. A fast-finishing climber who can descend fast will win this stage, someone of the calibre of Matej Mohoric.

Stage 6, Thursday 6 July: Tarbes-Cauterets, 145km

Day two in the Pyrenees with the Col du Tourmalet on the menu before a long, draggy uphill finish. The chances are the contenders who made the grade yesterday will watch each other and probe for any signs of weakness, while a break settles the stage, with pure climbers targeting the win and the King of the Mountains jersey: Giulio Ciccone perhaps, or Neilson Powless.

Stage 7, Friday 7 July: Mont de Marsan-Bordeaux, 170km

A complete contrast: pancake flat and probably grimly hot. Bordeaux used to be a classic sprinter’s finish when the race made regular visits, and this will be a throwback to those days. So it’s the same cast as in Nogaro, minus anyone who’s fallen foul of the mountains. This could be Cavendish’s third chance to eclipse Eddy Merckx’s stage win record and by now it will be clear just how tough an ask this will be.

Stage 8, Saturday 8 July: Libourne-Limoges, 201km

A second bunch sprint on paper, but there’s a twist: this is a long stage, and the final 70km offer little respite, being constantly up and down. It will be a tough one to control, so teams without sprinters will fancy their chances in a break. The tough finale favours a strongman such as Mathieu van der Poel or his Alpecin–Deceuninck teammate Søren Kragh Andersen.

Stage 9, Sunday 9 July: St Léonard de Noblat-Le Puy de Dôme, 182.5km

A stage devoted to the memory of France’s favourite racer, the late Raymond Poulidor, starting in his home town and finishing on the extinct volcano that was the site of his greatest exploit. The finish climb is back after 35 years’ absence and its insanely steep final 4km will force Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar to show precisely how strong they are. Expect a major reshuffle in the standings.

Stage 10, Tuesday 11 July: Vulcania-Issoire, 167km

After a rest day in Clermont-Ferrand, this is a day for the break to contest a stage through sumptuous scenery. The battle on the climb at the start will be intense and a downhill finish means the final four-mile ascent could see drama aplenty, while there is barely a flat stretch of road in between. This stage will be a target for Alaphilippe, Cort or other stage hunters such as Richard Carapaz or Daniel Martínez .

Stage 11, Wednesday 12 July: Clermont Ferrand-Moulins, 180km

A bunch sprint for sure, simply because with so few opportunities the sprinters won’t want to let this one get away. A break will go with riders looking for television time, but they won’t stand a chance. The question here is: which sprinters have survived the Massif Central, and which teams have any firepower left? One thing is certain: we won’t see another mass finish for at least eight days.

Stage 12, Thursday 13 July: Roanne-Belleville en Beaujolais, 169km

This is the sort of stage the Tour organiser, Christian Prudhomme, loves, peppered with medium-difficulty climbs where anything can happen. Stage hunters such as Alaphilippe, Cort and company will love it, and overall contenders who have flopped thus far will see a chance for redemption. But for a team trying to control the race, it will be a nightmare in the Beaujolais vineyards. For fans, it could be grand cru .

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Stage 13, Friday 14 July: Châtillon sur Chalaronne-Grand Colombier, 138km

A very simple stage, with a big (non-classified) climb mid-stage to whittle the field down, and a brutal climb to the finish for Pogacar, Vingegaard and any remaining rivals such as – perhaps – Tom Pidcock to do battle. The finish is a 17km ascent.

Stage 14, Saturday 15 July: Annemasse-Morzine, 152km

The stage 14 battleground, the Col de Joux Plane, is long, and steep, with the final 6km all about 10%; it’s followed by one of the Tour’s trickiest descents to the finish. With climbing right from the start, the break will go early and may well contest the finish. A good chance for riders such as Mikel Landa, but the final descent has Pidcock written all over it.

Stage 15, Sunday 16 July: Les Gets-Saint Gervais Mont Blanc, 179km

Again there is climbing all day; four classified climbs and several unclassified ones, before an uphill finish where France’s Romain Bardet won in 2016, and where most of the damage will be done on the initial kilometres to Les Amerands, where the gradient reaches 18%. David Gaudu is the rider French fans will expect to emulate Bardet, but if the overall contenders get involved that will be a big ask.

Stage 16, Tuesday 18 July: Passy-Combloux, 22.4km ITT

After the second rest day, a time trial! Once a Tour staple, now a relative rarity. This one is short enough that it won’t upset the applecart, but there’s a twist in its flattish route: a short, sharp pull up the Côte de Domancy, or Route Bernard Hinault, where “the Badger” won the 1980 world title. Another reminder that Hinault remains the last French Tour winner, back in 1985. That’s unlikely to change this year.

Stage 17, Wednesday 19 July: Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc-Courchevel, 166km

The final Alpine stage ends over the longest climb of the week, the 28km Col de la Loze, with an unremitting final 6km topping out at 24%, and after the descent into Courchevel there’s a short, stiff pull to the finish line. If an early break gains ground watch out for pure climbers such as Pello Bilbao, otherwise it’s all about Vingegaard and Pogacar, who between them won four mountain stages last year.

Stage 18, Thursday 20 July: Moûtiers-Bourg-en-Bresse, 185km

A long flat run out of the Alps offers respite after the mountains. On paper this is a bunch sprint, but that depends on which sprinters have survived and what state their teammates are in. Last year the Belgian Jasper Philipsen was the pick of the sprinters in the second half of the Tour; if he and his teammate Van der Poel are in form, look no further.

Stage 19, Friday 21 July: Moirans-en-Montagne-Poligny, 173km

Another flat stage, this time out of the Jura and into the Doubs. This should be another bunch sprint, but there’s a stiff little climb 26km out, which could well put the riders who are left in the sprinters’ teams seriously off their stride. So perhaps a reduced bunch sprint for a seasoned warhorse such as Mads Pedersen.

Stage 20, Saturday 22 July: Belfort-Le Markstein Fellering, 133.5km

A final mountain stage where the organisers will hope for a conclusive showdown between, ideally, Pogacar and Vingegaard. Given this isn’t a million miles from the home of the French chouchou Thibaut Pinot, the home fans and media will be dreaming up a perfect exit for the three-time stage winner in his final Tour over six of the best passes the Vosges can offer.

Stage 21, Sunday 23 July: Saint Quentin en Yvelines-Paris Champs Élysées, 115km

A hint of the Paris 2024 Games with a start at the national velodrome before the run-in to the finish on the Champs Élysées, where the sprinters can strut their stuff. This is the last time we will see the Tour here for a couple of years, as next year’s Olympics mean the finish moves to Nice and a final time trial, the first time the Tour has finished outside the capital since 1905.

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Tour de France 2022 odds, field, predictions: Proven cycling expert locks in surprising picks, best bets

Sportsline's gene menez correctly predicted the winners of the yellow, green and white jerseys in the 2019 tour de france.

A band of challengers will try to end Tadej Pogacar's reign in the world's most famous bike race when the 2022 Tour de France begins on Friday in Copenhagen, Denmark. The 23-year-old Pogacar has won the Tour the last two years but will need to fend off several rivals to win his third Tour. Those include the runners-up the last two years, Jonas Vingegaard ('21) and Primoz Roglic ('20), 2018 champion Geraint Thomas and Russian upstart Alexander Vlasov. 

Pogacar is the -170 favorite (risk $170 to win $100) in the latest 2022 Tour de France odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Vingegaard is second in the odds at +450, while Roglic is +500. The Tour de France 2022 ends on July 24 with its traditional finish on the Champs-Elysees in Paris. With so many variables in the 2022 Tour de France, you'll want to see the latest 2022 Tour de France predictions from SportsLine senior writer Gene Menez . 

A former reporter and associate editor for Sports Illustrated, where he covered an array of sports for almost 14 years, Menez has been obsessed with the Tour de France for almost four decades. He has been following the iconic three-week race since the mid-1980s when Greg LeMond was riding to three yellow jerseys. In 2019, Menez correctly predicted the winners of the yellow, green and white jerseys, and last year he nailed the winner of the white jersey.

Menez has analyzed the 2022 Tour de France favorites, route, and top contenders and has picked his top-three finishers for the yellow jersey, as well as the winners of the green jersey (best sprinter), polka dot jersey (best climber) and white jersey (best young rider). He's sharing all of his expert Tour de France 2022 picks only at SportsLine . 

Top 2022 Tour de France picks

One shocker: After studying the route and the results of the contenders in the race, Menez has landed on Fabio Jakobsen (+550) taking home the green jersey even though he is not the betting favorite. (Wout van Aert is, at -140.) Jakobsen has been the best and most consistent sprinter in the world this year, with 10 victories. He also has won the green jersey in three stage races this year: Valencia, Algarve and Hungary.

Menez prefers Jakobsen over van Aert because the latter will likely be asked to help teammates Vingegaard and Roglic in the mountain stages, which could take a lot of starch out of his legs. On the other hand, Jakobsen's team will dedicate all of its resources to Jakobsen's green jersey quest. "I'll gladly take +550 on the fastest man in the race," he says.

How to make 2022 Tour de France picks

Menez's pick to win the Tour de France is a rider who "is in terrific form." He's also is high on a "strong climber" at "nice odds" to win the King of the Mountains jersey. He is sharing all of his 2022 Tour de France picks only on SportsLine .

So which rider wins the Tour de France 2022? Who finishes on the podium? And who captures the green, polka dot and white jerseys? See the 2022 Tour de France odds below and  visit SportsLine to see Menez's detailed Tour de France expert picks , all from the SportsLine senior writer who has been intensely following the sport for more than three decades.

2022 Tour de France favorites, odds, top contenders

See Tour de France picks, predictions and best bets here Tadej Pogacar -170 Jonas Vingegaard +450 Primoz Roglic +500 Geraint Thomas +2200 Alexander Vlasov +2200 Daniel Martinez +3500 Ben O'Connor +5000 Adam Yates +8000 Enric Mas +8000 Romain Bardet +8000 Nairo Quintana +10000 Jakob Fuglsang +10000 Johan Esteban Chaves +12500 Rigoberto Uran +12500 David Gaudu +15000 Wout Van Aert +15000 Louis Meintjes +15000 Jack Haig +15000 Damiano Crauso +15000 Thibaut Pinot +17500 Sepp Kuss +17500 Alexey Lutsenko +20000 Brandon McNulty +25000 Michael Storer +25000 Michael Woods +25000 Chris Froome +25000 Lennard Kamna +25000 Thomas Pidcock +30000 Guillaume Martin +30000 Guilio Ciccone +30000 Steven Kruijswijk +30000 Pavel Sivakov +40000 Warren Barguil +40000 George Bennett +40000 Rafal Majka +40000 Marc Soler +40000 Andreas Leknessund +40000 Mathieu Van Der Poel +50000 Bob Jungels +50000 Ion Izagirre +50000 Pierre Latour +50000 Patrick Konrad +75000 Maximilian Schachmann +75000 Mattia Cattaneo +75000 Joseph Dombrowski +100000 Matej Mohoric +100000 Marc Hirschi +100000 Tiejs Benoot +100000 Matteo Jorgenson +100000

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5 unmissable stages of the 2024 Tour de France

Mountains, gravel, and final-day drama: Here's our pick of the most promising stages of the upcoming Tour de France

Patrick Fletcher

Deputy editor.

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The fearsome Col du Galibier appears shockingly early in the 2024 Tour de France

The 2024 Tour de France route is a thrill-seeker, seeking to capture the increasingly elusive attention of as broad an audience as possible. We have mountains at the start, mountains at the end, and gravel in the middle. We have the hilliest ever opening stage and we have a real race on the final day for the first time in 35 years.

In short, we have plenty of ammo for this run-down of 'unmissable' stages.

Here, we take a closer look at the days that will either shape the race, bring the drama, or, with a bit of luck do both at the same time.

Read more: Tour de France 2024 route revealed

Stage 4: Why take a tunnel when you can climb a col?

July 2: Pinerolo – Valloire, 139.6km

The profile for stage 4 of the 2024 Tour de France

“Never before has the Tour been so high, so soon,” said Christian Prudhomme as he unveiled this early foray into the Alps. We knew the race had to get from Italy to France, and that means negotiating the Alps, but doing so in this way was not on many bingo cards.

“We could have passed through some tunnels, but we had no interest in doing that, so we preferred to pass over some cols,” Prudhomme added with a mischievous smile.

This is a proper mountain stage. Even if you look at it and think it’s not the likeliest to generate decisive general classification movement, you then remember it’s only stage 4 and that this sort of thing isn’t supposed to happen this early in a Grand Tour.

A full-on mountain stage this early is unprecedented, but it's not the first time the Tour has started with some hills. In some respects the first few stages of this Tour are a natural step up from what we saw last year. We have more elevation gain on the opening day in 2024 (3,600m) than we did in the Basque Country last year, which was followed by an early foray into the Pyrenees where, even on routes that didn’t look ultra-decisive, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar traded significant blows.

The same is possible on this route, which effectively climbs from the gun, all the way to Sestrières at 2035m. The race crosses the Italo-French border via the Col de Montgenèvre (8.3km at 5.9%) and then it’s time for the Galibier, one of the most iconic mountains of the Tour de France.

It's the southern side of the mountain in action here, totalling 23km at 5.1%, much of that being a steady plod up the Col du Lauteret, where the prevailing headwind could see a contained race. But things suddenly change when you ignore that left turn and head right onto the upper reaches of the Galibier, as the gradient ramps up dramatically, the mountainside vertiginously falls away, and the altitude starts to bite.

This will be as much about the descent as the ascent, with the route re-tracing the steps that made Tom Pidcock a Netflix star, so we’re in for a spectacular finale, however the Galibier leaves it hanging. The draggy nature of much of the climbing may fail to inspire some fans, but you have a Tour de France icon, altitude, and a stunning descent, and then you remember it’s only stage 4.

Read more: Analysing Ineos Grenadiers’ Tour de France 10-rider long list

Stage 9: Gravel storm incoming

July 7: Troyes – Troyes, 199km

The profile for stage 9 of the 2024 Tour de France

Love gravel, hate gravel, you are not missing this. This could be a massive moment for the race; it could be a massive moment in the history of the Tour de France; it could amount to very little at all; but it’s going to be captivating viewing, either way.

There was a sense of shock after Christian Prudhomme had unveiled the parcours for this stage. The very presence of gravel had been heavily touted in the pre-presentation rumour mill, but, sorry… how much?! No fewer than 14 sectors will line the route of stage 9, totalling more than 32km of the so-called chemins blancs (white tracks). That’s not Strade Bianche territory, but it’s considerably more than the 12.9km used when the Tour de France Femmes visited this area in 2022, the 11.6km on offer at next year’s Giro d’Italia, and any helping of cobblestone sectors we’ve had over the years.

It’s going to kick up a storm of dust on the day but it has already whipped up a stormy debate. “It is not necessary,” said an exasperated Jumbo-Visma boss Richard Plugge, a feeling echoed by his Bora-Hansgrohe counterpart Ralph Denk and in more diplomatic terms by his rider, the defending champion Jonas Vingegaard. Remco Evenepoel has already spoken out against the gravel, while his Soudal Quick-Step boss Patrick Lefevere has never hidden his own distaste for gravel and cobbles.

Read more: Does gravel belong in the Tour de France? Off-road stage of 2024 route divides opinion

The general argument against is that the heightened risk of mechanical problems or crashes could take a leading contender out of contention or out of the race altogether – rather than being decided on strength and tactics, it increased the role of Lady Luck. The argument in favour draws on both the past and future of cycling. Prudhomme pointed out that some of the sport’s legends were making their mark before long before paved roads were the norm, while gravel as a modern discipline is the sport's major growth area.

The Tour de France has made obvious efforts in recent years to appeal to the social media generation, so it’s no surprise to see them jump on the gravel hype train. If nothing goes drastically wrong on stage 9 next July, we can expect to see them lean further into the drama and entertainment angle, with Tour routes veering further away from the traditional. This is part of the testing ground for how a Grand Tour could and should be designed.

As for the day itself, the luck factor will be impossible to predict but in purely racing terms there is plenty of time to be won and lost. Plugge may have underlined Vingegaard’s bike handling skills, but the Jumbo-Visma reaction doesn’t scream confidence, nor does that of Primož Roglič’s Bora-Hansgrohe, while Evenepoel will have flashbacks to his nightmare outing on the Tuscan gravel in the 2021 Giro. That’ll be music to the ears of Pogačar, a former winner of Strade Bianche and the reigning champion at the Tour of Flanders. He is, quite simply, a more rugged and rounded rider, and he will surely see this not as an obstacle but an opportunity.

However it falls, the sight of the yellow jersey and co. careering onto the gravel – a haze of dust in the dry, or a mudbath in the wet – will be compelling viewing. Even if nothing much happens, you’ll be holding your breath on the edge of your seat for each sector, but there’s every chance this could be one of the most dramatic days of the whole Tour.

Stage 15: A Bastille Day epic

July 14: Loudenvielle – Plateau de Beille, 197.7km

The profile for stage 15 of the 2024 Tour de France

Bastille Day, and as if the French fans needed any more incentive to get out there and scream their lungs out, we have a crazy day in the Pyrenees.

Let’s start with the stats: 198km, six climbs, 4850m elevation gain. It’s a big, big day and, what’s more, it comes hot on the heels of another big day. Stage 14 might not be quite as heavy, but it still goes over the Tourmalet, Hourquette d’Ancizan and up Pla d’Adet, meaning the legs will already be dulled for this epic.

It’s another summit finish, up at Plateau de Beille, but more on that later. The stage rips out of the traps, climbing the western flank of the Col de Peyresourde from the gun. The ascent from Loudenvielle measures 6.9km at 7.8% and the bunch is going to explode immediately. Breakaway artists will be on the move, pawns will be placed, lower-rung GC riders will be on the hunt, and we could even see a favourite or two looking to take advantage of the chaos. After the descent there are 20km in the valley but then the Col de Menté hits and it’s vicious (9.3km at 9.1%), followed straight away by the Portet d’Aspet (4.3km at 9.7%).

The valley roads in the middle of the stage should be where things settle back into some sort of pattern, but the shake-up will recommence on the Col d’Agnes (10km at 8.2%), and the short hop over to the Port de Lers. A descent and a short valley stretch then lead to the final climb to Plateau de Beille (15.8km at 7.9%), which didn’t see much action on its last appearance in 2015, but then again this is a harder stage in general. The first few kilometres are the hardest, averaging 9%, and it hangs mostly between 7-8% the rest of the way up. For such a long climb, the average gradient is high, and there’ll be guaranteed damage by the top.

The 2024 Tour route seems to have less of a penchant for super-steep climbs than previous years, with a return to more of the traditional steadier efforts, but this stage features the sharpest gradients of the whole Tour, and also the most elevation gain of a single stage. It’s set to be a defining day.

Stage 19: Up in the clouds

July 19: Embrun – Isola 2000, 144.6km

The profile for stage 19 of the 2024 Tour de France

Rivalling stage 15 for the honour of the race’s ‘queen stage’ is this trip down the eastern flank of the French Alps, and it offers a real contrast to its Pyrenean counterpart.

For starters, it’s shorter, by 53km, and it contains almost as much elevation gain. Although it doesn’t start uphill, it’s a more intense affair. Secondly, the climbs are less steep, but longer, the Col de Vars and Cime de la Bonette both around the 20km mark.

The most important factor – and the thing that truly sets this stage apart – is the altitude. 2000 metres has become a sort of mythical benchmark, often referred to as 'the barrier'. Above the barrier, things change as the paucity of oxygen dulling both the muscles and the senses. At that height, you can crack and never recover.

The Tour goes above 2000m on the Galibier on stage 4 and the Tourmalet on stage 14, but stage 19 is ‘the altitude stage’ of the 2024 Tour.

The Col de Vars takes us to 2109m with an 18.8km climb at an average gradient of 5.7% that’s heavily mitigated by a 3km plateau in the middle. It’s then over to the Cime de la Bonette, which, at an eye-watering 2802m, is one of the highest paved roads in Europe.

This is extreme altitude, and while the climb, measuring 22.2km at 6.9%, would be hard enough from seal level, half of it is above the 2000m barrier, where the riders will be toiling for more than half an hour.

The long descent to Isola sets us up for another vertical kilometre on the final climb to Isola 2000, which as the name suggests, punctures that 2000m barrier for a third time. It’s another long climb at 16km, and while it’s a steady traditional ski resort seven percent-er, the day’s exertions will start to take their toll.

It’s the sort of stage, heading into the clouds, where the idea of climbers ‘taking flight’ feels very apt indeed.

Read more: Analysing Visma-Lease a Bike’s Tour de France long list

Stage 21: Drama til the last

July 21: Monaco – Nice, 34km (ITT)

The profile for stage 21 of the 2024 Tour de France

For the first time in the history of the Tour de France, the race will finish away from Paris, and for the first time since 1989, we’ll have a competitive final day.

Those memories from 35 years ago will only whet the appetite for this 35km time trial between Nice and Monaco. The final day of that 1989 edition, concluding with a time trial into Paris, is one of the most memorable day’s in the race’s rich tapestry, with a pioneeringly aerodynamic Greg LeMond snatching the yellow jersey from Laurent Fignon by a mere eight seconds – the tightest ever Tour.

The arrival of the peloton in Paris is, for many, symbolic. However, the champagne-fuelled procession is not to everyone’s taste, and those who prefer the last day of the race to be, well, a race, will delight in the 2024 finale on the Côte d’Azur.

Provided it’s not a complete walkover to that point, the yellow jersey will be in play until the very last metres and moments of the Tour de France.

A closer look at the gradients involved

If the yellow jersey is indeed in play, then even the flattest of time trials would be gripping, but this is a far more interesting route than most, heading into the hills behind Nice to provide an all-round test of climbing, descending, flat power, and also bike handling.

The route starts in Monaco and spends all of 3km on the flat before heading up La Turbie, a well-trodden training climb for the enclave of Principality-based pros. At 8.1km at 5.6%, it’s a solid climb but more of a steady, seated effort. It provides a link to the Col d’Eze, famous from Paris-Nice, so it’s not the full climb but a steep 1.6km kicker at the top, which is followed by a long, fast, sweeping descent into Nice for a flat final 6km.

It’s a stunning route, perched above the glistening blue waters of the Mediterranean, and it should balance things finely between the remaining yellow jersey contenders, coming down to who’s still firing after three weeks. That’s another part of the novelty; the 2024 Tour effectively has one extra day of ‘real’ racing, and this TT comes after two big summit finishes, and five mountain stages in the space of the previous seven days.

If it goes down to the wire, it will live long in the memory.

For everything you need to know about the   2024 Tour de France, from the   history of the race , to this year's route and   start list , be sure to check out our dedicated race hub .

Tour de France

• Dates 29 Jun - 21 Jul
• Race Length 3,492 kms
• Race Category Elite Men

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2024 Tour De France Favorites: Expert Picks and Predictions

The top favorites for the 2024 Tour de France include defending champion Tadej Pogacar and former winners Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal. Other contenders to watch out for are Primoz Roglic, Mathieu van der Poel, and Richard Carapaz.

These riders have consistently shown their strength and determination in previous races, making them strong contenders for the coveted yellow jersey. As one of the most prestigious and challenging cycling events in the world, the Tour de France attracts top riders from around the globe.

It’s a race that demands physical and mental endurance, strategic planning, and tactical prowess. With its iconic stages and unpredictable terrain, the Tour de France always promises excitement and drama for both riders and fans alike. As the race draws closer, the anticipation for who will emerge victorious continues to build, adding to the allure of this monumental sporting event.

Expert Picks And Predictions

Previous Winners The previous Tour De France winners such as Tadej Pogacar, Egan Bernal, and Geraint Thomas will be the ones to watch for their experience and potential to repeat their victory.

Current Form Analysis Riders like Primoz Roglic, Julian Alaphilippe, and Mathieu van der Poel are in top form and ready to challenge for the yellow jersey, based on their recent performances .

Tour De France Stage Specialists Notable stage specialists like Peter Sagan, Wout Van Aert, and Caleb Ewan are expected to contend for stage wins and possibly impact the general classification.

Dark Horse Candidates Keep an eye on young talents such as Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel, and Tom Pidcock, who could surprise everyone with a strong performance.

Young Prospects Emerging talents like Tadej Pogacar and Marc Hirschi could make a significant impact in their pursuit of the yellow jersey.

Climbing Specialists The likes of Egan Bernal, Nairo Quintana, and Richie Porte are anticipated to excel in the mountain stages and contend for overall victory.

Time Trial Experts Riders such as Primoz Roglic, Geraint Thomas, and Wout Van Aert possess exceptional time trial abilities, which could be crucial in their pursuit for the overall title.

Sprinters to Watch Names like Peter Sagan, Caleb Ewan, and Sam Bennett are expected to compete for stage wins in the bunch sprints.

Stage Victories In the pursuit of stage victories, sprinters and breakaway specialists like Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff , and Julian Alaphilippe cannot be overlooked.

Green Jersey Contenders The battle for the green jersey could feature Peter Sagan, Wout Van Aert , and Caleb Ewan, who are all likely to compete for the points classification title.

Team Dynamics and Support The role of each team in supporting their leaders, and the dynamics within the teams, will play a significant part in shaping the outcome of the 2024 Tour De France.

Credit: www.bicycling.com

Frequently Asked Questions For 2024 Tour De France Favorites

What are the dates for the 2024 tour de france.

The 2024 Tour De France is scheduled to take place from June 29th to July 21st.

Who Are The Top Contenders For The 2024 Tour De France?

The top contenders for the 2024 Tour De France include Chris Froome, Primoz Roglic, and Tadej Pogacar.

How Can I Watch The 2024 Tour De France Live?

You can watch the 2024 Tour De France live on channels like NBC Sports, Eurosport, and ITV4, or via online streaming platforms.

What Are The Major Stages Of The 2024 Tour De France?

The major stages of the 2024 Tour De France include flat stages, hilly stages, mountain stages, individual time trial, and rest days.

As the 2024 Tour de France approaches, the competition is set to be intense. With potential favorites including top contenders like Chris Froome, Egan Bernal, and Tadej Pogacar, fans are in for an electrifying race. Stay tuned for thrilling moments as cyclists push their limits in one of the most prestigious events in the world of cycling.

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Tour De France Stage 20 Predictions, Favorites & Odds (Individual Time Trial - 23.7.2022)

• Saturday, 23 July 2022 10:23
• Written by David Bet

Stage 20 of the Tour De France is 40.7 km individual time trial from Lacapelle-Marvial to Rocamadour. Bookies are expecting a fierce battle between Filippo Ganna and Wout Van Aert but surprises are always around the corner. Who will win the penultimate stage of the Tour? This post contains our Tour De France Stage 20 betting tips , odds, recommended bets on Winner, Top 3 & Head to Head, betting offers & no deposit bonuses!

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TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE 20 BETTING PREVIEW 

At more than 40 km in length, the penultimate-stage time trial is the longest we’ve seen at the Tour since 2014.

Most of the time trial course is gently rolling in the direction of Rocamadour before the last 6 kilometres are more accidented.

It is the last opportunity to change the GC, even if the podium looks already set. Moreover, much of the attention will be on the Stage winner.

All eyes will be on the expected duel between Filippo Ganna and Wout Van Aert, currently the world’s best time trialists.

The two climbs are particularly steep, expecially the second one (the Cote de l'Hospitalet) which is 1.5 kilometres long and averages 7.8%.

The first climb -  the Cote de Mages - is 1.6 kilometres long and averages 4.7%.

Stage 20 Favourites

Big time gaps can open up in a TT that long, but we expect world champion Filippo Ganna (Team Ineos) and Wout Van Aert (Team Jumbo-Visma) to fight for the stage win.

The two have dueled against each other on six occasions with Ganna turning out on top most of the time.

Anyway, in the first ITT of this year's edition, Van Aert finished 2nd behind his team-mate Yves Lampaert , while Ganna finished fourth (with Tadej Pogaçar in 3rd place).

That day Lampaert stunned the favorites and seize the first yellow jersey of this year’s race. The Belgian took advantage of better weather condtions as he rode on drier streets compared to his closest rivals.

Tadej Pogacar was just seven seconds behind Lampaert in Stage 1. The Slovenian is the best time trialist among GC contenders but it's almost impossible he can regain the Yellow Jersey since he has a 3'26" gap from the leader. Furthermore, he crashed on Thursday and consequences are unknown.

Jonas Vingegaard has performed exceptionally well in this year's Tour De France. He is not a pure time trialist but he will not finish too much distant from the specialists. The current Yellow Jersery finished just 10 seconds behind Van Aert in stage 1 and we all know that the gap between time-trialists and GC contenders is much thinner in the third week of a Grand Tour.

Geraint Thomas should be very close to Pogacar and slightly ahead of Vingegaard. Anyway, remaining energies at this stage of the tour are more important than previous results in ITT.

Given that Primoz Roglic abandoned the race before the start of the second week of racing, there are not any other GC contenders that could fight for a Top 3 placement.

The likes of Nairo Quintana, Bob Jungels and Alexandr Vlasov are good time trialists (the Russian in particular won the Time Trial at the Tour De Romandie in May) but a Top 10 finish is their maximum ambition.

Dark Horses?

Switzerland have two pure time-trialist - Stefan Kung and Stefan Bissegger - that should be in the mix.

Jonathan Castroviejo and Brandon McNulty will also do their best in this time trial as they will act as advisers for their captainst (Thomas and Pogacar respectively).

Maximilian Schachmann, Mads Pedersen, Mikkel Bjerg and Mattia Cattaneo are other riders that could finish in the Top 10.

TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE 20 PREDICTIONS

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• Tour De France Stage 21 Predictions: Winner, H2H Tips & Odds (Champs-Élysées - 23.7.2023)
• Tour De France Stage 20 Predictions: Winner, H2H Tips & Best Odds (Belfort > Le Markstein - 22.7.2023)
• Tour De France Stage 19 Predictions: Winner, H2H Tips & Odds (21.7.2023)
• Tour De France Stage 18 Predictions: Winner, H2H Tips & Odds (Moutiers > Bourg-En-Bresse - 20.7.2023)
• Tour De France Stage 17 Predictions: Winner, H2H Tips & Odds (Saint-Gervais > Courchevel, 19.7.2023)
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Tour de France Stage 20 Odds, Picks and Predictions

by Dave Friedman in News

Updated Dec 16, 2022 · 3:03 AM PST

• Stage 20 of the Tour de France (Saturday, July 23) is the second Individual Time Trial
• The 40.7 kilometres route between Lacapelle-Marival and Rocamadour is a little bumpy but undaunting
• Who are the best Tour de France Stage 20 picks considering the odds?

On Thursday Jonas Vingegaard all but clinched the Tour de France. His Jumbo–Visma teammate Wout van Aert had already sewed up the green jersey. Friday, Christophe Laporte took what looked like a sprint stage, really rubbing in Jumbo’s dominance over this year’s race.

Vingegaard begins Saturday’s time trial, the last competitive stage of the race (Sunday’s low key arrival in Paris is mostly ceremonial) with a commanding 3:26 advantage over two time defending champ Tadej Pogacar. Geraint Thomas is eight minutes behind the leader, but more than three minutes ahead of fourth place David Gaudu. So, it appears the podium positions have been clinched.

Stage 20 (7:05 am ET) begins early on Saturday, but the leaders don’t get going until almost four hours later. While GC riders may be in the mix for the stage victory, Filippo Ganna is largely in the field for days like this, and van Aert has arguably been the most impressive rider over three weeks, and can do it all. Who will be the fastest on the ITT?

Tour de France Stage 20 Odds

Odds as of July 22 at DraftKings Sportsbook .

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Laporte made the winning move on Friday, getting the jump on the pure sprinters by bridging the gap to the breakaway, and then holding off the pure speedsters. It has been that type of race for Jumbo–Visma, it seems like every move they make is a winning one.

There’s not a lot to the ITT course aside from it’s length. It’s an undulating and long time trial, with two short climbs at the end.

Let’s break down Saturday’s field while making note of the odds.

Tour de France Stage 20 Betting Favorites

It would be disappointing if van Aert didn’t get the chance to lead a team in the next year or two. Someone who can win sprints, escape in a breakaway, or achieve victory in the mountains is a unicorn. He was the runner-up on the Stage 1 time trial, and the climbing at the end of this course could be the difference for a multi-talented rider.

There is no doubting van Aert regardless of what a stage looks like. This one seems suited to him.

Ganna is the two time defending World Time Trial champion.

He was fourth on Stage 1 this year. Ganna is riding in his first ever Tour, but in two tries at the Giro d’Italia, he has six stage victories.

Tour de France Stage 20 Contenders

You always look to the GC riders at this stage in the race. They are still fighting for something, are motivated, and have proven to be the strongest.

Vingegaard has nothing to prove. He only needs to be respectable and the Yellow Jersey is his. That said, he was seventh on Stage 1, and there is a reason he is winning the race.

While Vingegaard took advantage when Pogacar showed weakness, after winning the last two years, and taking three stages this year, Pogacar would surely like to take another consolation prize.

Pogacar’s ITT victory in the mountains on Stage 20 two years ago, taking the Yellow Jersey from Primož Roglič is one of the great comebacks in cycling history. Repeating that Saturday to win the stage is possible, to win the race seems impossible.

Pogacar finished third on Stage 1 this year, while Thomas was 18th. Thomas finished 25 seconds behind stage winner Yves Lampaert. During his career Thomas has had a lot of success in time trials, and he’ll be all out to try and win on Saturday, and secure a podium spot.

Thomas has won three career Tour stages, and won the general classification in 2018.

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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.

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Mark cavendish keeps faith in 35th tour de france stage win: ‘he’s back on track … everything is possible’, cavendish's trainer and mentor says experience and bullish self-belief will be key after disaster spring: 'the confidence is there for mark, and the whole team.'.

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Mark Cavendish and Team Astana Qazaqstan continue to back their Tour de France project and the mission to write a new line of cycling history.

“Team Cav” has faith that wily experience and bullish self-belief will deliver the Manxman an Eddy Merckx-topping 35th stage win at the Tour de France this summer.

“If the next few weeks go as planned, everything is possible at the Tour de France,” Cavendish’s trainer Vasilis Anastopoulos told Velo .

“Things didn’t go well for Mark for quite a while. But we’re past that,” Anastopoulos said. “The confidence is there for Mark, and the whole team.”

Anastopoulos said on a call Wednesday the rockets are firing again after the heat temporarily went out of the “The Missile.”

The 39-year-old was derailed by a spring of sickness and knocked by a confidence-kicking failure to make the time cut this March at Tirreno-Adriatico.

Three months and a crucial stage win later, “Project 35″ lives on.

“I won’t give any chances or predictions. I can’t say if a stage win is 60 or 70 percent or whatever,” Anastopoulos said. “But I do know he’s back on track now and that he and the whole team is behind this Tour de France objective.

“If Mark arrives at the Tour healthy and in the condition we expect per the plan, everything is possible,” Anastopoulos told Velo . “Why not?”

Cavendish’s hunt for a history-making stage win will be the subplot of what could be his last Tour de France.

After being denied last year by a skipping chain during the sprint into Bordeaux and crashing out less than 24 hours later, Cavendish needs things to click his way just one time to steal all the headlines away from the GC “Big 4.”

QUOTE: @LeTour @markcavendish : “In the sprint I had a problem with my gear. I am very disappointed as the team and especially Cees Bol were pretty amazing. We’ll try again!” #TDF2023 #AstanaQazaqstanTeam pic.twitter.com/rqJyWqGUDr — Astana Qazaqstan Team (@AstanaQazTeam) July 7, 2023

Anastopoulos believes Cavendish’s extra decade of experience over top rivals Dylan Groenewegen, Mads Pedersen, and 2023 green jersey Jasper Philipsen could be the key to making that one moment of magic.

“You need to use all your experience for a race as hard as the Tour de France,” Anastopoulos said in a call to his home in Athens.

“It’s not only about power and about speed,” he said. “You need to make decisions in the right moments, to understand how to use energy during the stages, how not to be stressed by the whole race. Some of those learnings only come with time.

“OK, Mark is old now, he’s 39. But the experience he has, and that [leadout man] Mørkøv has, is second to no one. And that’s a huge advantage over these other guys,” Anastopoulos said. “None of the other Tour de France sprinters can match that.”

Cavendish won for the first time at the Tour de France all the way back in 2008. Some of his 2024 rivals might have been scooting around on kiddies’ trikes the moment the-then 23-year-old beat Óscar Freire and Erik Zabel into Châteauroux.

After a season with only two wins on the palmarès , Cavendish will need all the old man wisdom he can muster when the Tour rolls out two-and-a-half weeks from now.

2024: From horror show to Hongrie

Cavendish cut an unusually quiet figure this year.

An early season win in Colombia and a whole lot of accompanying hype dissolved into a spring of illness and a mojo-sapping experience in the mountains at Tirreno-Adriatico.

Cavendish abandoned the sprinter Super Bowl of the UAE Tour in February without a result and with a sickness he couldn’t stifle.

One month later, his Tirreno-Adriatico ended in disaster when he was timed out in a grueling stage over the rugged spine of the Apennines.

A DNF at Milano-Torino followed one week later.

“The spring was not good for us or for the team. It felt like a lot of good work from winter was undone,” Anastopoulos said. “For sure, all that impacted the morale.

“Mark needs confidence in his performance in order to really thrive.”

Mark Cavendish beat the naughty Groenewegen and won stage 2 of @Tour_de_Hongrie , his 2nd victory of the year after a world class leadout by Astana. Like I always said, never distegard Cav for a stage win in TDF. #TourdeHongrie @SenalDeportes pic.twitter.com/OnbHnQ7J5y — Mihai Simion (@faustocoppi60) May 9, 2024

Victory at the low-key Tour de Hongrie early last month helped Cavendish turn the page on a spring to forget.

“Mark’s good, he’s very happy, very motivated right now,” Anastopoulos said.

“That win in Hungary was very important,” he continued. “It was a big boost for Mark’s morale, the morale of the team, and the confidence the team has in him.

“It was a good win for him, that one. It felt significant.”

Astana Qazaqstan boss Alexander Vinokourov kept “Cav” on the books last winter with July front of mind.

Anastopoulos confirmed to Velo the Kazakh crew will be all-in on Cavendish at the Tour de France this summer.

Mørkøv, Cees Bol, and Davide Ballerini will be the core of a “Tour 8″ focused on the five sprints available in a mountain-packed race. Cavendish’s former wingman Mark Renshaw will be directing from the team car.

Alexey Lutsenko will be the odd-climber-out in a strapping Astana Qazaqstan selection.

“We had a really good training camp with all the guys last month in Sierra Nevada. All the leadout was there, and things are working well with them,” Anastopoulos said.

“The mood is good. Mark’s going well, and when he sees the other guys doing good, that boosts him further.”

Confidence is key for Cav: ‘Mark has a lot of belief in this project’

Anastopoulos helped Cavendish defy the doubters during their shared time at Deceuninck Quick-Step when the sprinter won four stages and the green jersey at the 2021 Tour de France.

The Greek trainer told Velo that Cavendish’s power files are currently close to those of his Merckx-equaling run three years ago.

A week-long camp close to Athens in the week before the Tour will put the finishing touches on the Missile’s second burn and draw the watts closer to his four-win summer.

“We don’t look at the other guys like Philipsen or whoever, or think about their level. But I’m convinced that if Mark performs at the level that we’re used to and we expect, then he has a very good chance at the Tour,” Anastopoulos said.

A great athlete made a monumental comeback at this year’s @LeTour and rewrote the history books of cycling Proud and honored to be a part of it! Cav, you made it mate! You are the sprinting GOAT! pic.twitter.com/Aj1UKFxmOn — Vasilis Anastopoulos (@vanasto) July 19, 2021

Anastopoulos and Cavendish forged a close relationship during their time at Soudal Quick-Step.

The Greek became part-coach-part-counsellor in a role that made his hire by Astana Qazaqstan a non-negotiable.

Anastopoulos has seen Cavendish at his highest and his lowest.

Right now, the trainer-turned-mentor is convinced things are looking upward.

“Mark has a lot of belief in this project, and he can see the whole team has a lot of belief in it,” Anastopoulos told Velo . “That’s one of the most important things. Confidence can mean a lot for Mark. For his mind and his sprints.”

Suffering in Suisse for a slice of Tour de France history

Cavendish races one last time before the Tour de France this week at the Tour de Suisse in what is a cruel choice for a fast-finisher. Like last week’s Critérium du Dauphiné, the Swiss tour is laden with Alps and short of sprint finals.

Meanwhile, the alphas of the Tour de France sprinter pack are sharpening their fangs at the Baloise Tour, starting Wenesday.

Philipsen and Jakobsen are joined in Belgium by Tim Merlier and Olav Kooij for what should be the ultimate pre-Tour tester of sprinter prowess.

Cavendish and Anastopoulos thought different. The Tour de Suisse will serve Cavendish a lesson in suffering and dissolve any memories of his humiliation in the mountains this March.

“To do sprints in modern cycling, you need to survive the climbs,” Anastopoulos said.

“This year’s Tour de France in partciular is extremely, extremely difficult. There are so many climbs, even in the first two stages,” he said. “Mark needs to be ready for that suffering.

“And for Mark, the target isn’t only for the one stage, but to finish the whole Tour. He needs climbing kilometers in his legs to do that.”

A 35th stage win this summer at the Tour de France will make all the uphill worth it.

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We Asked ChatGPT to Help Us Generate a List of Predictions for the 2023 Tour de France.

Here’s what happened when we asked a chabot to predict what will happen in this year's Tour. It—and we—have some thoughts.

Here’s what it came up with, along with our commentary as to just how right (or wrong) it might be.

1. “A newcomer will surprise everyone and claim the yellow jersey. In a shocking turn of events, a previously unknown rider will emerge as a dominant force and secure the coveted yellow jersey at the 2023 Tour de France. This underdog's extraordinary performance will captivate fans worldwide.”

As much as we’d love to see it, this sounds a little far-fetched. The defending champion, Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard ( Jumbo-Visma ), heads into the Tour as the overwhelming favorite; and Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), winner of the race in 2020 and 2021 , looks to be the only rider capable of beating him (if he recovers from a broken wrist in time to get himself in shape).

The only “newcomer” capable of defeating these two might have been Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step)–but he’s not racing. The 23-year-old won last year’s Tour of Spain and was leading this year’s Giro d’Italia before testing positive for COVID-19 on the eve of the Giro’s first Rest Day. Everyone hopes his team will make a last-minute decision to send his first Tour de France, but all signs point to 2024 as the year in which he makes his Tour debut.

2. “The fight for the green jersey, awarded to the best sprinter, will be fiercer than ever. Several top sprinters will compete head-to-head in thrilling finishes, resulting in a closely contested green jersey competition throughout the Tour.”

We like the chatbot’s thinking here, as this year’s green jersey battle will be tough to predict thanks to the lack of a clear favorite and an unconventional course. The defending champion, Belgium’s Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) has made it clear that he’s not chasing the jersey this year.

And the course makes life really hard for field sprinters, so don’t expect someone to reel off four stage victories on their way to winning green. Instead, we’re wondering if an all-rounder who doesn’t care about the General Classification will take home the jersey for winning the Tour’s Points Classification–someone like France’s Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-Quick Step). With so many mountain and transitional stages–especially during the Tour’s tough opening week–Alaphilippe looks poised to make an early bid to wear green (and maybe yellow).

3. “After recovering from a career-threatening injury, Great Britain’s Chris Froome (Israel-PremierTech) will make an impressive comeback at the 2023 Tour de France. The former champion will showcase his resilience and determination, surprising everyone with his exceptional performance.”

We love this prediction as it’s bold but not unreasonable. Froome’s story is a testament to just how fragile a career can be. He looked poised to challenge for a record-tying fifth Tour de France victory with INEOS in 2019, but crashed while pre-riding a time trial at the 2019 Critérium du Dauphiné .

He was 34 at the time, already at the tail-end of his peak years as a grand tour rider, and the crash nearly ended his career. He’s now in his third season with Israel-PremierTech and has enjoyed a relatively trouble-free season (so far). Assuming he makes the team (we think he will), we’d love to see the 38-year-old win one more stage at the Tour, then close the curtain on his storied career.

4. “Breakaway specialists will dominate the mountain stages. The mountain stages of the 2023 Tour de France will witness a surge of breakaway specialists. These talented climbers will take advantage of strategic opportunities, leaving the peloton in awe as they conquer challenging ascents and descend with extraordinary skill.”

The chatbot is onto something here, especially given current racing tactics. Grand tour contenders just don’t seem all that concerned with winning stages anymore–especially if letting a breakaway go up the road means the race behind it is easier to control. At the recently-completed Giro d’Italia, for example, all but one of the race’s 7 mountain stages went to a rider from the breakaway.

Now don’t get us wrong: Vingegaard and Pogačar are exceptions in that they enjoy winning stages while fighting for the yellow jersey, but if the race is close, don’t expect them to risk too much in order to do it.

5. “A lesser-known team will defy expectations and clinch victory in the team time trial. This unexpected triumph will showcase the importance of teamwork and demonstrate that cycling is not just about individual performances.”

Not sure what the chatbot is thinking here: there’s no team time trial in this year’s Tour de France. (Let this be a lesson to you kids, do your own homework!)

6. “A talented rider will deliver an extraordinary performance during the individual time trial, shattering the existing record for the fastest time. Their exceptional speed and precision will leave spectators in awe and cement their status as a time trial specialist.”

Not gonna happen this year, chatbot! There’s only one individual time trial in this year’s Tour, and it’s hilly, which means the current record of 55.446 km/h (34.5 mph) set by Australia’s Rohan Dennis on Stage 1 of the 2015 Tour de France, is safe.

But Stage 16’s 22.4km individual time trial is the only ITT in this year’s Tour, and it ends with an ascent of the Category 2 Côte de Domancy, where France’s Bernard Hinault dropped his competitors to win the world championship in 1980. So while we won’t see any records broken, we will see fireworks that could shape the outcome of the race overall.

7. “Young talents will steal the limelight. The 2023 Tour de France will witness the rise of promising young talents. These rising stars will showcase their potential, challenging the established veterans and leaving a lasting impression on the cycling world.”

Once upon a time, riders didn’t become grand tour contenders until their mid- to late-20s. Now they burst out of the gates and win tours while barely old enough to drink (in the USA, at least). Case in point: the average age of the last four Tour de France champions is just 22.5.

But while this is less of a prediction and more of a trend, there is someone making his Tour de France debut this year that we could see leaving a lasting impression: Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty). A talented sprinter who last year won Ghent-Wevelgem and a stage at the Giro, the 23-year-old is a good bet to win a stage or two and challenge for the green jersey.

8. “The 2023 Tour de France will prioritize sustainability and environmental responsibility. The race organizers will implement innovative measures to reduce waste, promote recycling, and minimize the event's carbon footprint, setting an example for future sporting events.”

This one’s a given as the Tour’s organizers have been more concerned with sustainability in recent years, and their last environmental audit (conducted in 2021) showed a 40% reduction in emissions overall.

The hope is that this year’s audit indicates that the race is even closer to achieving its goal of a 50% reduction in emissions by 2025, which should be helped by the fact this year’s route is relatively light when it comes to long pre- and post-stage transfers. We’re still not sure if we can consider the Tour an example for other sporting events (there’s still a long way to go before the race will be known for its sustainability), but progress is being made.

9. “Unconventional race strategies will lead to unpredictable outcomes: In a bid to gain an edge over their rivals, teams will adopt unconventional race strategies that defy traditional norms. These innovative approaches will lead to unpredictable outcomes, keeping fans on the edge of their seats throughout the race.”

With two clear favorites in Vingegaard and Pogačar, it’s likely that the only tactical battle to make any difference will take place between these two riders and their teams. But this year’s route is definitely unconventional, with two hard days in the Basque Country to open the race followed a few days later by a mid-week trip through the Pyrenees.

This could lead to some early gaps forming, especially if someone like Vingegaard–who already seems to be approaching top form–chooses to test Pogačar–who’s still recovering from a crash in late-April and is behind in his preparation–right away. GC contenders generally don’t like to take the yellow jersey too soon at risk of over-extending themselves and their teammates in having to defend it for three weeks.

But Vingegaard could gamble by trying to get the better of Pogačar before the Slovenian has a chance to race himself into shape. While this might not lead to an unpredictable outcome–we don’t see anyone other than Vingegaard or Pogačar winning the Tour–it would be an unconventional way for them to do so.

So who will win? Well, we asked the chatbot and here’s what it said:

10. “As an AI language model, I do not have real-time information or the ability to predict future events such as the winner of the 2023 Tour de France. The outcome of sporting events depends on various factors, including the performance and form of the athletes, race strategies, and unforeseen circumstances. It's best to follow the event and its coverage to find out who will win the Tour de France in 2023.”

This is perhaps the chatbot’s most accurate response yet. So be sure to stay with Bicycling.com throughout the 2023 Tour de France (and Tour de France Femmes ) for results, analysis, and non-AI-based insight.

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Tour de france 2023 stage 16 preview - race of truth.

Hilly time trial offers Tour de France tiebreaker for Vingegaard and Pogačar before Col de la Loze

For once, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard won’t have one another for company. The two favourites for this Tour de France have spent the past week more or less in lockstep, tracking one another’s every move, but they will finally be kept apart when they roll down the start ramp to take on the 22.4km individual time trial from Passy to Combloux on stage 16.

In a Tour where the pair seem to have one another’s measure every time the road climbs, this unusual race of truth may well prove to be the key arbiter of the entire race, a tiebreaker between two riders from another stratosphere who apparently cannot be separated by conventional means.

Pogačar accelerates, then Vingegaard responds. Jumbo-Visma apply some pressure, then UAE Team Emirates strike back. Vingegaard snags a time bonus, then Pogačar snatches one back. Every action in the hills and mountains of week two seemed to have an opposite but equal reaction. On the first day of week three, however, the two men will finally be left to their own devices and forced to race without the other as a reference point.

The intrigue of the time trial is only augmented by the relative lack of intelligence to be gleaned from their head-to-head record. Going back to their under-23 careers, Pogačar and Vingegaard have faced off nine times in time trials, with the Slovenian leading the series 6-3, but it is unclear quite how much relevance those past encounters hold to the 2023 Tour.

Vingegaard first defeated Pogačar in a time trial at the 2021 Itzulia Basque Country, when he placed third to the Slovenian’s fifth in a hilly 13km test won by Primoz Roglic, putting ten seconds into him in the process. At that year’s Tour, Pogačar claimed a supersonic win in the flat 27km test to Laval on stage 5, though Vingegaard quietly signalled his intentions for that race by placing third at 27 seconds. The Dane beat Pogačar in the flat final time trial in Saint-Émilion, though the Tour was already over as a contest by then.

Last year, meanwhile, Pogačar beat Vingegaard comfortably in the 13km opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico and narrowly over the same distance on the first day of the Tour in Copenhagen. Vingegaard, however, was Pogačar’s superior in the final time trial to Rocamadour, where he even slowed down to yield victory to teammate Wout van Aert.

The 2023 campaign, meanwhile, has provided no direct confrontation between Pogačar and Vingegaard in an individual time trial, with their sole meeting before the Tour coming at Paris-Nice . Vingegaard, however, has looked decidedly at ease against the watch this season, claiming a crushing victory at O Gran Camiño in February and then scorching to a fine second place – ahead of some notable testers – on stage 4 of the Critérium du Dauphiné .

By contrast, Pogačar’s only outing in the discipline came in the Slovenian Championships in June, where he won the title by more than five minutes on an uphill, 15km course, albeit against a field bereft of WorldTour riders. In other words, there are reasonable arguments for each man’s prospects in Tuesday’s test. Like just about everything else in this duel, it all seems too close to call.

When the route of the 2023 Tour was unveiled in October, the eye was naturally drawn to the succession of mountain ranges laid out along the route, starting with the Pyrenees in week one, then the Massif Central, Jura and Alps ahead of the grand finale in the Vosges on the penultimate day of the race. The Vingegaard-Pogačar battle, one assumed, would be decided on these passes.

It was certainly easy to overlook the meagre portion of time trialling kilometres, even if there have been lessons from recent history about the outsized importance of racing against the clock in a Grand Tour. In May, after all, the Giro d’Italia turned on Primož Roglič’s show of force in the final mountain time trial up Monte Lussari.

At the 2017 Tour, meanwhile, Romain Bardet more than had the measure of Chris Froome in the high mountains, but he still could only place third overall, his 2:20 deficit essentially amassed in that race’s 36km of time trialling. That Tour was an altogether more controlled kind of race than this riotous edition, but the parity between Pogačar and Vingegaard is such that the Combly time trial offers itself as a similar kind of tie breaker.

Although stage 16 takes place in the heart of the Alps, it doesn’t class as a mountain time trial, though it’s certainly not a flat one either. After leaving Passy, riders tackle the short Côte de la Cascade de Coeur, cresting the summit after 4.1km, with the first intermediate time check coming in Passy Chef-Lieu after 7.1km.

From there, the route drops gently towards the valley road that brings riders through Sallanches, and the ability to push a big gear is of ample importance from here to the second check at Domancy after 16.1km.

That marks the beginning of the day’s principal difficulty, the category 2 ascent of the Côte de Domancy (2.5km at 9.4%). The climb featured as part of the Megève time trial on the 2016 Tour but is, of course, most redolent of the 1980 World Championships. Bernard Hinault used its slopes to break his rivals on that heady afternoon, and the climb should define this time trial too.

Indeed, the climbing doesn’t stop even at the third intermediate check at the summit, which comes after 18.9km. Instead, the road continues to rise all the way to the finish line in Combloux 3.5km later.

The favourites

Pogačar rolls down the start ramp in Passy at 16.58 local time on Tuesday, with Vingegaard beginning his effort two minutes later. There are other riders in contention for stage victory, of course – including Vingegaard’s teammate Wout van Aert – and there is a fierce contest for the third step of the podium, but it is, inevitably, the duel for the yellow jersey that dominates the afternoon.

Speaking in recent days, both Vingegaard and Pogačar have struck upbeat notes about their prospects in the rolling, 22.4km test. “I like when time trials are short and with a lot of changes of rhythm,” Vingegaard said of a time trial he reconnoitred in June. The Dane and Pogačar each rode it again on Monday’s rest day and they will take one last look on Tuesday morning before racing for keeps in the afternoon.

Pogačar, like Vingegaard, is familiar with the terrain. “I know it pretty well, I hope it suits me pretty well. I can’t wait to start it,” he said, adding: “I think there’ll be gaps in the time trial.”

Something’s got to give, in other words, and although there are further tests to come on the Col de la Loze on Wednesday and in the Vosges on stage 20, this time trial is just as likely a place as any. But the rest is anyone’s guess.

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Barry Ryan is Head of Features at Cyclingnews. He has covered professional cycling since 2010, reporting from the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia and events from Argentina to Japan. His writing has appeared in The Independent, Procycling and Cycling Plus. He is the author of The Ascent: Sean Kelly, Stephen Roche and the Rise of Irish Cycling’s Golden Generation , published by Gill Books.

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